Probably Overthinking It
Data science, Bayesian Statistics, and other ideas
- Posts
- 200 from 20 Sep 2018 to 20 Sep 2026
- Posting
- weekly (24 in the last year)
- Kind
- personal blog
- Feed
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2026 19
- An Agentic Data Science Story
- New Book!
- Think Java, but interactive
- Greatest GOAT of All Time?
- You Would Choose Now
- Who Is More Trusting: Liberals or Conservatives?
- The Frog Puzzle
- Sexual morality
- Confidence in Institutions
- Planning for your midlife crisis
- Changing Opinions on Assisted Suicide
- Trust and Well-Being
- Have the Nones hit a ceiling?
- Attention, Chinese Readers
- Young Adults Are Not Very Happy
- Field Sobriety Tests and the Base Rate Fallacy
- Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl
- The Girl Born on Tuesday
- Bayesian Decision Analysis
2025 16
- The Raven Paradox
- SAT math scores: gender difference or selection bias?
- The Lost Chapter
- Think DSP second edition
- It’s Levels
- Cancer Survival Rates Are Misleading
- The Foundation Fallacy
- Simpson’s What?
- The Poincaré Problem
- Think Linear Algebra
- Announcing Think Linear Algebra
- My very busy week
- Announcing Think Stats 3e
- Young Adults Want Fewer Children
- Algorithmic Fairness
- Confidence In the Press
2024 45
- Political Alignment and Outlook
- Reject Math Supremacy
- Young Americans are Marrying Later or Never
- Multiple Regression with StatsModels
- Hazard and Survival
- Download the World in Data
- What’s a Chartist?
- Comparing Distributions
- War and Peace and Zipf’s Law
- Think Stats 3rd Edition
- Bootstrapping a Proportion
- Ears Are Weird
- Rip-off ETF?
- Probably the Book
- Too many bronze medals?
- Where’s My Train?
- Elements of Data Science
- Density and Likelihood: What’s the Difference?
- PMFs and PDFs
- Regrets and Regression
- Have the Nones Leveled Off?
- Should divorce be more difficult?
- Which Standard Deviation?
- What is a percentile rank?
- Logarithms and Heteroskedasticity
- Combining Risks
- Bertrand’s Boxes
- Estimation with Small Samples
- Destructive Testing
- The mean of a Likert scale?
- Testing Percentiles
- Small percentiles and missing data
- What does “strength” mean?
- What does a confidence interval mean?
- Standard deviation of a count
- Data Q&A
- Think Python Goes to Production
- The Gender Gap in Political Beliefs Is Small
- Think Python third edition!
- The Political Gender Gap is Not Growing
- Political Alignment, Affiliation, and Attitudes
- Extremes, outliers, and GOATS
- Is the Ideology Gap Growing?
- Probably Overthinking It Notebooks
- The Center Moves Faster Than You
2023 36
- How Many Books?
- What are the odds?
- Smoking Causes Cancer
- Happy Launch Day!
- Superbolts
- Life in a Lognormal World
- We Have a Book!
- Why are you so slow?
- The World Population Singularity
- Another step toward a two-hour marathon
- How Does World Population Grow?
- What size is that correlation?
- The Overton Paradox in Three Graphs
- How Principal Are Your Components?
- Taming Black Swans
- How Correlated Are You?
- Homophobia and Religion
- Backlash of Homophobia?
- The Remarkable Decline of Homophobia
- Go Get the Data
- Abstracts and keywords
- Absence of Evidence
- Causation, Collision, and Confusion
- The Overton Paradox
- We Have a Cover!
- LLM-Assisted Programming
- How Many Typos?
- The Bayesian Killer App
- What does skew mean?
- Driving Under the Influence
- One Queue or Two
- Don’t discard that pangolin
- Never Test for Normality
- Resampling for Logistic Regression
- Smoking causes cancer
- Finding modes and antimodes
2022 14
- Overthinking the question
- Chasing the Overton Window
- The Long Tail of Disaster
- On pace for 2-hour marathon in 2035
- Polarization and partisan sorting
- Are we really polarized?
- Support for Gun Control is Still Declining
- The Plurality of the Nones
- Off to Technical Review
- Almost done?
- Preston’s Paradox
- The Student-t model of Long-Tailed Distributions
- How Gaussian Is It?
- Probably Overthinking The Book
2021 18
- Data Structures and Information Retrieval in Python
- Emitter Detector Redux
- Factors of Underrepresentation
- COVID-19 and the Inspection Paradox
- Bayesian Dice
- The Left-Handed Sister Problem
- Flipping USB Connectors
- In Search Of: Simpson’s Paradox
- Founded Upon an Error
- Simpson’s Paradox and Age Effects
- Simpson’s Paradox and Education
- What’s new in Think Bayes 2?
- Old optimists and young pessimists
- Bayesian and frequentist results are not the same, ever
- Simpson’s paradox and real wages
- Berkson Goes to College
- The Retreat From Religion Continues
- College Freshmen are More Godless Than Ever
2020 17
- When will the haunt begin?
- Millennials are not getting married
- Whatever the question was, correlation is not the answer
- Fair cross-section
- Alice and Bob exchange data
- Maxima, Minima, and Mixtures
- Think DSP v1.1
- Bayesian hypothesis testing
- Correlation, determination, and prediction error
- The Girl Named Florida
- The Elvis problem revisited
- Among U.S. college students, religious attendance is at an all-time low
- Young Christians are more sex-positive than the previous generation
- Generational changes in public spending priorities
- A large majority of Americans support legal abortion, at least in some circumstances
- Generational changes in religious belief and public policy
- Young Christians are less religious than the previous generation
2019 24
- Please stop teaching people to write about science in the passive voice
- Handicapping pub trivia
- Political alignment and beliefs about homosexuality
- The Dartboard Paradox
- What should you do?
- What should I do?
- What’s the frequency, Kenneth?
- Watch your tail!
- Left, right, part 4
- Left, right, part 3
- Left, right, part 2
- Right, left, apart, together?
- Matplotlib animation in Jupyter
- Report from SciPy 2019
- Backsliding on the path to godlessness
- Foundations of data science?
- Local regression in Python
- Happiness, Mental Health, Drugs, Politics, and Language
- Stop worrying and love the black box
- Bayesian Zig-Zag Webinar
- Are men getting married later or never? Both.
- The marriage strike continues
- Data visualization for academics
- The library of data visualization