The Curious Engineer

All blogs / Society / politics / economy

Bet On It

betonit.ai

Caplan and Candor. Click to read Bet On It, by Bryan Caplan, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Society / politics / economyEssays / personal

’25’26
Posts
277 from 20 Mar 2025 to 30 Oct 2026
Posting
about daily (159 in the last year)
Kind
personal blog
Feed
https://www.betonit.ai/feed

2026 135

  1. The Boy Who Cried Bear
  2. The $3.44 Walmart Pillow vs. Local Monopoly Power
  3. ChatGPT Knows It’s a Bad Bayesian
  4. We Don’t Just Want the Best People
  5. Repairing Rothbardian Monopoly Theory
  6. Milgram vs. “Power Relations”
  7. Hankinson Replies on Immigration
  8. Sentiment Analysis: Adding Hanania to the Mix
  9. A Sentiment Analysis of Cowen, Hanson, Caplan, and Krugman
  10. Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids: 15th-Anniversary Edition
  11. The Rideshare Revolution
  12. Reflections on Simon Hankinson
  13. EA: The Good, the Bad, and the Buggy
  14. On Stage With the Emo Kids
  15. The Neo-Median Voter Model
  16. The Negligence of War and Peace
  17. In Honor of Brian Doherty
  18. Upcoming Events
  19. Could You Get It If You Were Rich?
  20. The Trials of Dagobah: A LARP for Kids
  21. Zitelmann on Hitler’s Economics
  22. Home Equity and Net Worth
  23. AMA: Start of the 2026 Academic Year
  24. Silver Diner DC Meet-Up This Weekend
  25. Reflections on Americans’ Net Worth
  26. High Agency is High Variance
  27. AMA Today at 5PM ET
  28. The Externalities of Airports and Immigrants
  29. CDs vs. NIMBY
  30. Krakowski, Claude, and *Modern Times*
  31. Libertarianism Against Cultural Conservatism: A Refresher
  32. *Modern Times*: The Ultimate Fact Check
  33. Assessing *Modern Times*
  34. Grokking My Essence
  35. I Stopped Being a Libertarian Because I Realized the Sky is Blue
  36. The Ambition Project
  37. "If I'm Really Honest"
  38. How Socialist Were the Nazis Really?
  39. America's National Mood Was OK in 1988-1991
  40. Berkeley Bonus Meet-up Wednesday
  41. Upcoming Events
  42. Nazi Economics: Ideas and Policies
  43. He's Got My Vote: An Atypically Productive Exchange on the UBI
  44. The Best Thing About Wokeness
  45. Nazism and Economic Freedom
  46. You're Invited to Capla-Con 2026!
  47. Sixteen Fun Facts About Me
  48. National Socialism and Economic Freedom: The Lawson Convo
  49. Socialism: Better Never to Have Been
  50. Nazi Socialism: What's at Stake?
  51. Über Socialist: ChatGPT on Economic Freedom in Nazi Germany
  52. Reflections on UATX
  53. *For a New Liberty*: My Bob Murphy Interview
  54. Caplan-Jones UATX Debate Video
  55. Bet On It Book Club Round-up: Ask Me Any Question About For a New Liberty
  56. When It Really is Racist to Talk About Racial Gaps
  57. Immigration Laws Are Made to Be Broken
  58. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 15
  59. Guest Work in Japan: Some Inside Info
  60. “Rationalist” Dating Strategy
  61. My Opening Statement for the UATX Caplan-Jones Immigration Rematch
  62. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 14
  63. Caplan-Jones Immigration Debate Rematch Friday at UATX
  64. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 13
  65. Writing Books that Deserve to Be Read
  66. The Superpower of Coping with Government Stupidity
  67. Economics is Intuitive: Rejoinder to Craig
  68. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 12
  69. An Ode to Low-Skilled Workers: Version 2
  70. An Ode to Low-Skilled Workers: Version 1
  71. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 11
  72. Counter-Intuitive Econ
  73. My Dwarkesh Story
  74. Economics is Counter-Emotional, Not Counter-Intuitive
  75. The Caplan-Khan Culture Convo
  76. Another End-of-the-World Bet
  77. Why Religious Beliefs Are Irrational, and Why Economists Should Care
  78. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 10
  79. Education/AI: The Krakowski Interview
  80. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 9
  81. Post-Birthday Premium AMA Today; Substack Live with Razib Khan Tomorrow
  82. Confessions of a Neotenous Man
  83. The Philosophy of Bah
  84. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 8
  85. Upcoming Events
  86. The Future of the Middle East: My Dialogue with Gad Saad
  87. The Night of the Vampires
  88. Crypto-Communism and Game Theory
  89. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 7
  90. Caplan-Rojas: The Culture Conversation
  91. LLMs and SCOTUS
  92. The Ugly Path to Peace
  93. The Truth About BS Podcast
  94. My Friend Doherty
  95. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 6
  96. "Bryan Caplan and Me Solve the World's Problems"
  97. Filibuster and Forever
  98. I Think I Can Explain Trump's Theory of Trade
  99. Cruising to Dubai
  100. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 5
  101. Caplan-Rojas Substack Live Today at 4 PM
  102. The Pretty/True 2x2
  103. Reason and Abortion
  104. Acknowledgements for *Unbeatable*
  105. Maybe Parents Are Just Misinvesting
  106. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 4
  107. They've Got You Buying and Selling
  108. Do Immigrant Cultures Threaten Liberty?
  109. Hanson-Caplan: The Culture Convo
  110. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 3
  111. Talking Banfield
  112. Why Politicians Should Stay Inside the Overton Window (Even When the Cause Is Just)
  113. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 2
  114. Deadlocks and Credibility
  115. Wittman Versus the Last 25 Years of American Democracy
  116. Backlash: Seek Truth from Facts
  117. Privatize Ollantaytambo
  118. The Hyperbole of Backlash
  119. Bet On It Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 1
  120. How Not to Be an Incel or a Psychopath
  121. Open Borders and Remote Work
  122. Abortion and Adoption: The Crone Critiques
  123. The Dadaism of "All Theories Are False"
  124. *For a New Liberty* Book Club Reboot
  125. The Incredibility of Credibility
  126. AMA on *You Have No Right to Your Culture*
  127. You Have No Right to Your Culture
  128. Embrace Cultural Creative Destruction
  129. A Small Tip Jar for the Administrative State
  130. *Unbeatable* Round-Up
  131. My Stationary Bandit Podcast
  132. Reflections on Peru and Bolivia
  133. The Ethics of Business with Niklas Anziger
  134. Reflections on the Caplan-Bruenig Poverty Debate
  135. Blockade: The Science and Ethics of Trade

2025 142

  1. See You in South America
  2. A Missing Textbook Diagram
  3. Your Fascist Immigration Policies
  4. California Events
  5. Governments Do the Bad Things That Sound Good
  6. Ask Me Again After Dinner
  7. Interpreting the Turnaway Study Correctly
  8. The Tragic Hysteria of Abortion
  9. Banfield on the Hyperbole of Urban Bankruptcy
  10. Hand-Holding: Two Final Readings (for now)
  11. Hand-Holding Explained
  12. The Econoboi Poverty Debate
  13. My Econoboi Poverty Debate vs. Matt Bruenig
  14. Thanks to You
  15. We're All "Addicted" to Our Best Options
  16. Immigration, Innovation, and Half-Truths
  17. Helping Hands
  18. I Come Not to Help Pick-Up Artists, but Normal Shy Guys
  19. Meritocracy: The Doha Debate
  20. Will You Die One Day?
  21. Name Any Market You Don't Want to Regulate
  22. MAGAfy the Debt
  23. Adoption and the Welfare State: Reply to Critics
  24. Lunch Offer
  25. Bonus Premium AMA
  26. Latest AMA
  27. A Better Path Forward for Infant Adoption
  28. A Comment on Bryan’s “Modest Proposal” to Increase Infant Adoption
  29. Against the Noble Lies of Democracy
  30. Premium AMA Today
  31. AMA Today at 4 PM ET
  32. The Anti-Intellectual Northern Michigan University
  33. Immigration: Worth Losing For
  34. Cues versus Content: Hyrum Lewis Replies to Marlen-Starr's Proposal
  35. Upcoming Events
  36. Infant Adoption is Now Tragically Rare
  37. Let's Do the Time Warp Again
  38. Talking Building
  39. Prediction as the New Meritocracy: Why the Future of Expertise Will Be Measured, Not Claimed
  40. Cues vs. Content: A Proposal to Empirically Distinguish Lewis-Style Coalition Theory from Caplan’s Simplistic Theory
  41. Solving the Mind-Body Problem: Dualism vs. Searle, Part 2
  42. Solving the Mind-Body Problem: Dualism vs. Searle, Part 1
  43. Should We Fight Economic Misinformation?
  44. Congratulations Harry and Natalie!
  45. Ten Modest Proposals to End the Gender Pay Gap
  46. The Best of Ride With Gabi
  47. What is Barbarism?
  48. What Americans Think About Nuclear Power
  49. Vocational Credential Inflation
  50. AI, *Muybridge*, and the Mind
  51. Qatar and Reverse Causation
  52. Bambauer Contra BS
  53. "Aging Out" of Drug Addiction is the Norm
  54. Israetel's Favorite Economist
  55. George Walsh: The Incomplete Kant Lectures
  56. Non-Competes Re-Reconsidered
  57. You're Invited to the Freedom of Intellectual Navigation Conference
  58. What Surprised Me
  59. Upcoming Events: Portland, Madison, and South America
  60. Mises, Bastiat, Public Opinion, and Public Choice
  61. The Everyday Miracle: Value Is Not Cost
  62. The Value of Medicaid: A Conversation with Nathan Hendren
  63. Talking Kids with Dr. Bob
  64. Cost-Benefit Analysis Crushes GDP
  65. The Value of Medicaid: The Evolution of a Socially Undesirable Finding
  66. Donkeys Can’t Sleep in Bathtubs
  67. If You’re So Smart, Why Aren’t You Happy?
  68. Fixing Higher Ed: The Bailey-Caplan Convo
  69. Austerity for Fertility
  70. The Effect of Education on Fertility
  71. I Debate an Academic Feminist
  72. Premium AMAAA
  73. George Smith's Swift History of the United States
  74. Another AI Art Contest
  75. Murder, Rape, and the Sexism of Sympathy
  76. Migration, Housing, and Beyond
  77. The Sigmoidal Moral Value Function
  78. Be My Mirror
  79. How Does it Feel to Be a Bug?
  80. Reflections on Ethical Vegetarianism, Part 2
  81. Reflections on Ethical Vegetarianism, Part 1
  82. My Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky
  83. *Pro-Market and Pro-Business*: The Sheldon Richman Conversation
  84. Let Them Be Hillsdale
  85. The Timing of Abundance
  86. Ethics and Insecticide: The Transcript
  87. A Scarcity of Abundance
  88. America's Most Successful Terrorist?
  89. Ethics and Insecticide
  90. The Great Means-Testing Debate
  91. Life is Too Short to Wash and Dry
  92. The World's Worst Argument Against Austerity
  93. Human Capital Hara-Kiri
  94. Apply to Cato University 2025
  95. The Hidden Constraints on HOT Lanes
  96. Permit Me One Maudlin Anecdote
  97. Solipsism>>Determinism
  98. Visualize Protectionist Luxembourg
  99. Do Libertarians Barely Care About Liberty?
  100. A Friendly Appeal to the Unconvinced
  101. *Pro-Market and Pro-Business*: The Keith Knight Interview
  102. Markets Do the Good Things That Sound Bad
  103. *Pro-Market and Pro-Business* AMA
  104. Milton Friedman’s Weird Abolition List
  105. You're Invited to Capla-Con 2025!
  106. Irrationality As the Fountainhead of Market Failure
  107. No Hay Almuerzo Gratis Podcast
  108. Excusing the Government
  109. Pro-Market and Pro-Business Livestream Today
  110. Around the World
  111. The Merciful Maximization of the Market
  112. Ask Me Anything About Markets and Business
  113. The Mainstream World Is Not Free-Market
  114. Pro-Market and Pro-Business
  115. Feeling Polyamorous... for Markets AND Business
  116. A Critique of Leftist Demonology
  117. The Strange Economics of HOT Lanes
  118. Koch vs. Trump: A Puzzle of Leftist Demonology
  119. A Better Way to Select White-Collar Workers
  120. UC Berkeley Admissions: Insight of an Insider
  121. Talking DEI with the Board of Visitors
  122. Capitalism, Socialism, and Social Desirability Bias
  123. AGI Doom AMA
  124. Tough Luck on Trade
  125. Why GMU Should End DEI for Real
  126. The Political Economy of Faith
  127. AGI Doom AMA
  128. The Great Migration Deficit
  129. What's Really Wrong With Standardized Tests
  130. The Invisible Crash
  131. My *Living History* Interview
  132. What Are You Waiting For?
  133. AGI Will Be Just Like *Subservience* Except...
  134. What the Infamous Heroin Study Said
  135. Ask Me Anything About Natalism
  136. Upcoming Events
  137. Reflections on Natal-Con
  138. BBB: The Jesse Wright Interview
  139. The Fertile Outliers
  140. People Barely Care About Relative Income: Some Empirics
  141. People Barely Care About Equality
  142. A Plea to Young Women