The Curious Engineer

Economist Writing Every Day

2023–2026

1,204 posts

← 2020–2022

2026 257

October 2026

  1. Random Sample Vs Sobol Sequence
  2. Midterms: It’s The Economy
  3. What Will the GDP Report Say Tomorrow?
  4. Holmes Whistleblower Claims “You Can See Everything” Film Is Misleading
  5. Edward O. Thorp, The Professor Who Beat Vegas, Then Wall Street
  6. “You Can See Everything” and the Confidence Trap
  7. Aspen Trees in the Fall
  8. Disability: Income, Unemployment, & Education
  9. A Simple Way States Can Reduce Healthcare Spending
  10. Has Mexico’s “Canasta Básica” Policy Made Food More Affordable?
  11. WWII Strategic Initiatives 7. The Man Who Built the T-34 Tank That Helped Save Russia.
  12. The modal number of citations is zero (in political science)
  13. Paper Published on Persistent LLM Hallucinations
  14. Marriages By College Major
  15. Health Insurance Benefit Mandates and Premiums
  16. Wealth of Generations in 2025
  17. Making Swiss Cheese Is Not So Easy; Role of Copper Kettles
  18. Is AI Taking Our Jobs? Signal Boosting Noah Smith
  19. Degrees, Higher Degrees, & Higher Income
  20. Economic Freedom Is Enough
  21. “The Grim Old Days” in Charts
  22. A Slick Way to Detect AI Cheating
  23. Rules aren’t real until they are
  24. Prices as a Map for AI Agents
  25. Short-stuff
  26. Music Spending Is Smaller Share Of A Bigger Pie

September 2026

  1. Wealth of Generations: Update Through the First Half of 2026
  2. Some Ways for Investors to Hedge Against Higher Interest Rates
  3. Social norms are necessary but not sufficient
  4. Who owns model risk?
  5. Race & Sex & College Major
  6. Introducing the Certificate of Need Panel Database
  7. Are You Better Off Than You Were 22 Months Ago? Midterm Elections and Real Wage Growth
  8. “Whinging” or Merely Whining?
  9. Political discontinuities
  10. Internal Audit of AI Agents and Risk
  11. Iso-Standard Errors & Unemployment By Major
  12. The World Keeps Spinning Faster
  13. Family Income Continues to Grow in 2025 Data
  14. The Shifting Fortunes of Market Neutral Funds QMNNX and BDMCX
  15. US economic advantages, last 100 years
  16. Korea So Far
  17. Economics Major Income Premium
  18. New Health Freedom Index
  19. Women Have Always Worked, Often in the Formal Labor Force
  20. What If AI Earnings Fall Far Short of Expectations?
  21. There’s no non-partisan way to say this
  22. Temperature vs thinking level for LLM products
  23. College Major & Income Sources
  24. Ranking State Economies On a Governor Time Scale
  25. Median Family Income for Married Couples With Children Is Probably Higher Than You Think
  26. SPMO: One Momentum Stock Fund to Rule Them All

August 2026

  1. Academic administration
  2. Universal Basic Yosemite and the Parton Fertility Rate
  3. Income By Major (ACS 2024)
  4. Should Immigrant Doctors Have to Retrain?
  5. Nicholas Polson Has Written Over 200 Academic Papers in 2026 (so far)
  6. Bond Market Blows Off Treasury Bond Buyback; Gold and Bitcoin Soar
  7. Journal Crisis at Games and Economic Behavior
  8. Intellectual Squatting
  9. Getting Music On Streaming Is Surprisingly Easy
  10. Welcome Back to School: Potential College Students are Now Declining
  11. WWII Strategic Initiatives 6. Fort Commander’s Lonely Decision Saves Norwegian Government from Capture by Germans
  12. First Derivatives
  13. Predicting Social Media from 1997
  14. High Income Rentals are Low Income Rentals
  15. Bubble Worries Mean Diversify…. But How?
  16. Everything At the Grocery Store is On Sale Relative to 1980
  17. Boy Wonder Leopold Aschenbrenner Blows Up His $45 Billion Situational Awareness Hedge Fund
  18. Bubbly
  19. Joy on Severance and Wild Problems
  20. Announcing the Disability Records Project
  21. CBO Wants Your Research
  22. Seven-Year Grocery Inflation is Running High
  23. Warsh’s Low/No Guidance Approach at Fed Makes Market Participants Nervous – – Which May Be a Good Thing
  24. Service Industry Exodus and the ACA: Anecdata
  25. AI Innate Preferences Paper on Arxiv

July 2026

  1. So Many Prime Ministers
  2. The Academic Data Project That Turned Into $375 Million
  3. GDP Growth in the Second Quarter: Updated Forecasts
  4. What Is So Special About Object-Oriented Programming Languages Like C++ and Python?
  5. The Odyssey
  6. Top EWED Posts of 2026
  7. So Many Living Ex-Presidents
  8. Nimble Individuals, Enduring Institutions, and The Sean Lahman Baseball Database
  9. How to Escape the Productivity Slump
  10. Teamwork with “Tiki-Taka”: The Secret to Spain’s World Cup Successes
  11. The Genius Trap
  12. We Overrate Books
  13. Uncertainty Increases Profits?
  14. The Journal of Healthcare Finance Is Back
  15. Real Wage Growth Has Been Very Slow in the First Half of 2026
  16. How To Get Spare Car Fob Made Inexpensively (And Why It Is Wise to Do So)
  17. Every good is a bundle
  18. Fable on Legibility
  19. By the Numbers: Florida’s Property Tax Amendment (2026)
  20. Do NBA Teams Play Worse In Back-To-Back Games?
  21. Yes, Americans Probably Are About 46 (or Maybe 65) Times Richer Than in 1776
  22. Some Must-Knows for Dying Well
  23. Sport rivalries work best when the hate isn’t real
  24. Freddy and Tocquevillian Hope
  25. Fiscal Trends: USA’s 250th (And the Government’s 237th)
  26. Expressionism Is To Cameras As…. Caity Weaver?…. Is To Writing?
  27. Happy Birthday, USA

June 2026

  1. Life Among the Geeks: Impressions from an Amateur Radio (Ham) Field Day
  2. Rural Americans benefit the most from immigration
  3. Video on You Wouldn’t Steal a Car
  4. What the Fed Knew, and When
  5. Greenspan’s Unknown Ideal
  6. Would You Pay $4,000 for Filet Mignon and a Flight to London?
  7. Anyone Can Pull Funds from Your Bank Account Who Knows the Routing and Account Numbers
  8. You can learn economics in the most unexpected places.
  9. Reviews from Joy
  10. Consumer Debt Delinquency & Write-Offs
  11. Non-Alcoholic Beer is Good Now
  12. Berries Are Probably Not Making Parents Go Broke
  13. SpaceX: The. Biggest. IPO. Ever. Is. Ridiculous. Hype.
  14. The joy is in the noise
  15. Fast Food Was Solved Before Fast Fashion
  16. Relative Measures of Portfolio Performance
  17. Die With Something
  18. Consumer Prices in the US Took About 27 Years to Double
  19. WWII Key Initiatives 5: General Zhukov Helped Save USSR By Mastering The Pincers Counterattack
  20. Joy Explains how to integrate AI into a statistics class
  21. Quasi-Relative Measures of Portfolio Performance
  22. What Will End The AI Bull Market?
  23. The “Reality Index” of Price Inflation Isn’t Grounded in Reality
  24. Urban Homesteader Starts with Garden Beds and Chickens
  25. A thought on the SpaceX IPO

May 2026

  1. Would you steal a lemon?
  2. Absolute Measures of Portfolio Performance
  3. Read Grant’s Memoirs
  4. The US is Building a Lot More Data Centers Than Five Years Ago, But We Are Still Building More Warehouses
  5. Guide to Using Microsoft’s Free “Scan Document to PDF” PC App
  6. Tall poppies don’t get the calls
  7. Someone I Know is Taking Wegovy
  8. Breakfast Pudding
  9. The Welfare-Productivity Tradeoff in US-China Trade
  10. Fuel Costs Are Way Up, But It’s Still Pretty Affordable to Fill Up Your Tank (relative to wages)
  11. PhD Chemical Engineer Finds New Career Booty Hooping
  12. Economic history as it’s happening is alway relative
  13. arXiv will ban authors who submit papers with LLM mistakes
  14. Which Business Programs Require Economics?
  15. Welcome Tobias
  16. The Day the Cloud Evaporated: Life After the Data Center Collapse (A Guest Post by AI)
  17. Chipmaker Stock Prices Explode: The Latest Bubble?
  18. Will AI kill the research paper?
  19. The Empire Strikes Back against AI Cheating
  20. How do Income Tax Brackets Work?
  21. Most Published Research Findings Are Directionally Correct
  22. Gerrymandering Doesn’t Give an Obvious Edge to Either Party in the US House
  23. 100,000 Glyphosate Lawsuits: Why Roundup Does Not Kill Your Weeds Like It Used To
  24. On implicit numéraire
  25. The Joke is on Humorless Brutalism
  26. The Arithmetic of Family Punctuality

April 2026

  1. How To Blog
  2. GDP Forecasts for the First Quarter of 2026
  3. Placebos Really Work (Sometimes)
  4. The Peace Dividend
  5. EWED cited in Top Demography Journal
  6. Price Level: Noise vs Signal
  7. Raise Rates- But Not Because Of Oil
  8. Are Americans Thriving Under Trump? No, According to the Cost of Thriving Index
  9. Allbirds, Inc. Attempts Pivot from Making Wool Sneakers to AI Computing
  10. I’ve never been more wrong
  11. Our glorious future is tech troubleshooting in space
  12. Take Your Kids to the Movies
  13. The Novelist Paradox
  14. The United States Has A Progressive Tax System
  15. Claude Mythos Is Such a Dangerous Hacker Engine That Anthropic Has Withheld Broad Release
  16. A Canticle for Aadam Jacobs
  17. The Internet should tell you not to make healthy substitutions for desserts
  18. A Rant about Long Run Problems and Passe Solutions
  19. Making Friends In Politics Is Possible
  20. Hungary is A Free Trading Nation Relative to the US
  21. Oops: Anthropic Accidently Leaked the Entire Code for Its “Claude Code” Program
  22. Education is a core US export
  23. Should Practicing Economists Read Tyler’s New Marginalism Book
  24. An Expensive Easter
  25. How Much To Trust Research Papers? My Rules Of Thumb
  26. Real Wages Today are Much Higher Than 1894, But Are Workers Still Getting Squeezed by Rent?

March 2026

  1. WW II Key Initiatives 4: Building Hundreds of Small, Slow, But Cheap Ships to Counter the U-Boat Threat
  2. The actual AI problem in academic economics
  3. Oil Price Lesson Plan for Economic Principles
  4. Cournot & Stackelberg Math
  5. Experimental Banking Reveals the Value of Leisure
  6. Average Wealth for Younger Generations Continues To Exceed Past Generations
  7. How to Install Drywall
  8. The theory of the firm remains unfinished
  9. How Can Adults Be Happy
  10. What is an AI Skill?
  11. Does Broadband Bring Jobs?
  12. Gasoline Prices Have Increased at Record Rates, but Remain At About Average Levels of Affordability
  13. A Bull Case for Tech Stocks
  14. The Heartwarming Sincerity of Gravity Falls
  15. The Economic Story of Mike Mulligan and His Steam Shovel
  16. Is a US Oil Export Ban Coming?
  17. Since 2021, 80 Percent of Population Growth in the US Has Been from International Migration
  18. How a Protective Options Collar Cushioned a Loss in Korean Stock Fund EWY
  19. When do betting markets become endogenous?
  20. Young Scholars or Any Scholars
  21. Ricardian Equivalence: Reasonable Assumption #2
  22. Iran on Markets, Markets on Iran
  23. The Declining Cost of Adam Smith
  24. Autism Is Largely Genetic (Not Environmental)
  25. How to retain your worst employees, US Army edition

February 2026

  1. Learn to Ode 2026
  2. Regulatory Burden By Presidential Administration
  3. Humanity’s Last Exam in Nature
  4. Most Married Women with Children Were Working By the Late 1970s
  5. Sleigh or Sled Shovels: Move Lots of Snow with No Lifting
  6. Supply and demand has a mind of its own
  7. Learning the Bitter Lesson at EconLog
  8. Vaccine Variety
  9. My First Exit
  10. GDP Forecasts for 2025Q4
  11. Broad Slump in Tech and Other Stocks: Fear Over AI Disruption Replaces AI Euphoria
  12. Bad ideas are costly
  13. Telephone Classroom Game for Teaching Large Language Models
  14. Truth: The Strength and Weakness of AI Coding
  15. Commodity Sports
  16. The US Labor Market is Adding About Half as Many Private-Sector Jobs as in Mid-2024
  17. SaaSmageddon: Will AI Eat the Software Business?
  18. Markets adjust: Superbowl quarterback edition
  19. IP Paper on Econlog
  20. Against Eugenics, on its Own Terms
  21. Forecasting An Eventful 2026
  22. 2025 Was A Pretty Good Year for the US Economy — But So Was 2024
  23. After the Crash: Silver Clawing Back Up After Epic Bust Last Week
  24. Unweighted Bayesians get Eaten By Wolves

January 2026

  1. Update on School Valentines
  2. Drawbacks of Long Term Thinking
  3. The Wealth Ladder
  4. The US Homicide Rate in 2025 May Have Been the Lowest Ever
  5. Economic Impacts of Weather Apps Exaggerating Storm Dangers
  6. What is the price of obvious lying?
  7. Casual Sourdough Baking
  8. Which Economies Grow with Shrinking Populations?
  9. How to Make a Few Billion Dollars
  10. The US Has One of the Highest Fertility Rates Among Peer Countries
  11. Restraining Sleep Position Can Help Heal Tennis Elbow
  12. Why ICE’s cruelty is only outpaced by their incompetence
  13. Thousands killed in Iran Protests
  14. Costly University Interviews can be Worthwhile
  15. The Hot Social Network Is… LinkedIn?
  16. Did Federal Government Spending Shrink in 2025?
  17. Steps To Grow Lettuce and Herbs in AeroGarden-Type Countertop Hydroponics Unit
  18. The Cooperative Corridor
  19. The value of reading great literature
  20. Rising Chinese Zombie Firms
  21. Is This the End of the Largest Refugee Crisis in the Americas?
  22. Liberal Democratic Institutions Generally Improve After US Military Intervention (Post-Cold War)
  23. Is the Silver Bubble Bursting?
  24. Where do we find papers to read?
  25. Summary of You Wouldn’t Steal a Car
  26. Tariffs Are Not Smart Industrial Policy
  27. How Good Were 2025 Forecasts?

2025 311

December 2025

  1. 2025 in Data
  2. Review of MUGFA (Aerogarden type) Countertop Hydroponic Units
  3. Part II: Why agent-based modeling could happen in economics. Eventually.
  4. Understanding Vulnerability: What Anna Karenina Can Teach Us About Grooming and Loneliness
  5. Investing: You Vs. All Possible Worlds
  6. What to Do Before the New Year?
  7. Groceries in November 2025 are the Most Affordable They Have Ever Been
  8. A Visual Summary of the 2025 Economics Nobel Lectures
  9. Joy on The Subscription Economy
  10. Consumption Then and Now: 2019-2025
  11. 2025 In Books
  12. Job Market Data is Back! Did All Job Growth Go to Native-Born Americans in the Private Sector?
  13. The Fed Resumes Buying Treasuries: Is This the Start of, Ahem, QE?
  14. If you aspire to management, learn to spot half-assed AI workflow
  15. Updated List of Top posts for 2025
  16. Do Tariffs Decrease Prices?
  17. Macroeconomic Policy In a Nutshell
  18. Joel Mokyr’s Nobel Lecture
  19. Google’s TPU Chips Threaten Nvidia’s Dominance in AI Computing
  20. Obviously baseline economic security matters, but…
  21. The End of Boredom: How AI Companions Might Reduce Random Violence
  22. Visualizing the Sharpe Ratio
  23. Benefit Cliff Data
  24. Poverty Lines Are Hard to Define, But Wherever You Set Them Americans Are Moving Up (And The “Valley of Death” is Less Important Than You Think)
  25. AI Computing Tutorial: Training vs. Inference Compute Needs, and GPU vs. TPU Processors
  26. “Companion”

November 2025

  1. Structure Integrated Panels (SIP): The Latest, Greatest (?) Home Construction Method
  2. Are Your Portfolio Weights Right?
  3. Thanks to the Readers
  4. The Poverty Line is Not $140,000
  5. Michael Burry’s New Venture Is Substack “Cassandra Unchained”: Set Free to Prophesy All-Out Doom on AI Investing
  6. Is satisfactory healthcare (currently) unattainable?
  7. WSJ Guidance on Rate Cuts
  8. Efficient Frontier Function (Python)
  9. What Tariffs Mean For Your Finances
  10. The Return of Data
  11. “Big Short” Michael Burry Closes Scion Hedge Fund: “Value” Approach Ceased to Add Value?
  12. Is art anti-capitalist?
  13. Joy in French Magazine on Fast Fashion
  14. Portfolio Efficient Frontier Parabolics
  15. Do Required Personal Finance Classes Work?
  16. The Growth of Family Income Isn’t Primarily Explained by the Rise of Dual-Income Families
  17. META Stock Slides as Investors Question Payout for Huge AI Spend
  18. Bright Mornings Help Parents
  19. Optimal Portfolio Weights
  20. Economic Freedom Updates
  21. The Supreme Court Case on Trump’s Tariffs
  22. Is Tesla Stock Grossly Overpriced?
  23. Fresh observations of Americans working hard

October 2025

  1. Looking Ahead: Post-Powell Interest Rates
  2. The Art of Spending Money
  3. Bad Claims About Food Stamps (SNAP)
  4. WW II Key Initiatives 3: Kurt Tank Gives Germany a Superior Fighter Plane, the Focke-Wulf 190
  5. Sports gambling has a problem other prediction markets don’t
  6. Podcast on the Major Macro Events Since Y2K
  7. Does Trump Weaken the US Dollar?
  8. LinkedIn is OK, Actually
  9. An Engineer in 1910 Didn’t Earn $450,000
  10. WW II Key Initiatives 2: “Thatch Weave” Tactic to Counter More-Agile Japanese Fighter Planes
  11. Why public universities should not accept the Trump compact
  12. Mazzaro’s of St. Petersburg FL
  13. Are Imports Bad for GDP?
  14. A Better Man / A Better Woman
  15. The Toyota Camry is Much More Affordable Than 30 Years Ago
  16. Circular AI Deals Reminiscent of Disastrous Dot.Com Vendor Financing of the 1990s
  17. MapGDP to teach economic growth
  18. All of the Prices
  19. Triumph of the Data Hoarders 2: The Institutions
  20. The Middle of the 20th Century was a Weird Time for Marriage
  21. WW II Key Initiatives 1: FDR Prodded the Navy To Convert Cruisers to Carriers, Just in Time
  22. AI isn’t going to be what you expect
  23. Everything Except Book Reviews
  24. James Webb Telescope Still Orbiting the Sun
  25. Children Don’t Die Like They Used To
  26. What Counts As “In Shape”?
  27. Purchasing Power in 1868: Guinness Edition

September 2025

  1. The “Lost World” of 2% Inflation
  2. Updating how you update
  3. It’s only getting weirder: deferred resignation windows start closing
  4. Coaching as creating
  5. Now Published: Prohibition and Percolation
  6. Economic Freedom of the World 2025
  7. Housing is More Expensive Today, But Not Because the US Left the Gold Standard
  8. Shift in AI Usage from Productivity to Personal Therapy: Hazard Ahead
  9. Another terrible policy (a continuing series)
  10. What Killed Youth Optimism?
  11. Joy on the Anthropic Copyright Settlement
  12. What’s the Best Major to Prepare for Law School?
  13. Is the Fed’s Inflation Target Really 2%?
  14. One-Third of US Families Earn Over $150,000
  15. Leveraged Bullion and Mining Funds to Cash in on the Gold Bonanza
  16. “A Woman Under the Influence” (1974)
  17. New TV Comedies on Netflix
  18. What’s Wrong with Sales Tax Holidays?
  19. Don’t Cut Rates
  20. The Latest BLS Job Growth Revision Actually is a Big One
  21. What is in a QR Code?
  22. Denial and doomerism are products of the same collective action problem
  23. Teaching Business Statistics Graphs with Chart Crimes
  24. $1 Million or I Quit: CTE Deaths in Football and Hockey
  25. Older Workers Have Not Dropped Out of the Labor Force
  26. Bears and Bulls Battle Over Nvidia Stock Price
  27. Sports observations (an intermittent series)

August 2025

  1. Is AI learning just MOOCs again?
  2. Can the President Fire a Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors?
  3. You Read It Here First
  4. The American Middle Class Has Shrunk Because Families Have Been Moving Up
  5. Government Makes Quasi-Nationalization Deal to Assure Supply of Critical Rare Earths for Defense
  6. Moderation as responsibility
  7. Students still need to learn principles
  8. We Don’t Have Mass Starvations Like We Used To
  9. The Little Book of Active Investing
  10. What is $300,000 from “The Gilded Age” Worth Today?
  11. A Modern-Day Pirate Seeks to Recover Up to Ten Billion Dollars of Gold from Republic Shipwreck Off Nantucket
  12. Walking around DC
  13. Podcast to understand modern coupling challenges
  14. The 2018 Tariffs in Many Graphs
  15. Why I Started Grading Attendance
  16. Initial Jobs Reports from BLS are Very Good At Identifying Downturns in the Labor Market
  17. BLS Has Been Getting Better at Estimating Jobs, and They are Not More Favorable to Democrats
  18. Are Managed Futures Funds Worth Including In Your Portfolio?
  19. The economics of damned lies
  20. Top EWED Posts of 2025
  21. Hayek on The Volatility Pie
  22. Parental Job Lock
  23. Is Everyone Going to Europe This Summer?
  24. Bureau of Labor Statistics Under Siege
  25. The (attempted) return of Soviet economic statistics
  26. See New York City for Full Price
  27. Organization of the Federal Reserve – OR, Why The President is Impotent against the Fed

July 2025

  1. State Demographics 1962-2024
  2. GDP Predictions: Pretty Good!
  3. Warren Buffett Quotes on Gold as a Bad Investment; Was He Right?
  4. The consequences of a “Papers, please” economy
  5. NYC Family Summer Trip Itinerary
  6. I’m Chair! 😬
  7. Is A Music Major Worth It?
  8. Second Quarter GDP Predictions
  9. Meta AI Chief Yann LeCun Notes Limits of Large Language Models and Path Towards Artificial General Intelligence
  10. Will LLMs get us the Missing Data for Solving Physics?
  11. Impossible Trinity of Macroeconomic Stability
  12. Freedom for Freestanding Birth Centers
  13. Inflation Is Stuck
  14. Meta Is Poaching AI Talent With $100 Million Pay Packages; Will This Finally Create AGI?
  15. The option to leave
  16. Chesterton Right about the History of Patriotism
  17. The Simple Utility Function Vs. Socialism
  18. Writing Humanity’s Last Exam
  19. 23 MSAs Produce Half of US GDP
  20. Economic Impact of Agricultural Worker Deportations Leads to Administration Policy Reversals
  21. It’s not AGI if it has a dial you can adjust to produce your preferred falsehoods
  22. Hallucination as a User Error
  23. My Perfunctory Intern
  24. The Ugly Gray Rhino Gathers Speed
  25. Renting an Electric Vehicle in Norway
  26. Central Banks Are Buying Gold; Should You?

June 2025

  1. Really? A continuing series
  2. Counting Hallucinations by Web-Enabled LLMs
  3. US State Growth Statistics 2005-2024
  4. Excluding “Non-Excludable” Goods
  5. Understanding Data: A Chart on Gen Z and Alcohol
  6. Saving Money by Ordering Car Parts from Amazon or eBay
  7. Predicting the future is hard, a continuing series
  8. Illusions of Illusions of Reasoning
  9. Salty SALT in the OBBB
  10. LIFE Survey Comes Alive
  11. Household Formation and Generational Wealth
  12. Did Apple’s Recent “Illusion of Thinking” Study Expose Fatal Shortcomings in Using LLM’s for Artificial General Intelligence?
  13. Kayfabe in the political marketplace
  14. Waymo and Pictures Online
  15. Retiring for $100 per Month
  16. The End of Easy Student Loans
  17. The Growth in Wealth is Not Primarily Driven by Rising Home Prices
  18. The Comeback of Gold as Money
  19. United States Vs Cruikshank (1876); ICE vs Los Angeles (ongoing)
  20. Papers about Economists Using LLMs
  21. Per Capita Consumption: 1990 Vs 2024
  22. The Average Teaching Load of US Professors
  23. Change in Homicide Rates from Pre-Pandemic in Large US Cities
  24. “Final Notice” Traffic Ticket Smishing Scam
  25. Most people aren’t monsters

May 2025

  1. Fast Fashion quotes in Yale’s The Politic
  2. We’re All Magical
  3. Queens 2060: Where Upzoning Matters Most
  4. Generational Wealth: End of 2024 Update
  5. Wild Pigs Are a Big Problem; You, Too, Can Thin the Herds from a Chopper with a Machine Gun
  6. EconTalk Extra on Daisy Christodoulou
  7. Not a Ranked-Choice Failure
  8. Corporate Debt by Industry Sector
  9. Montana’s New Property Tax System
  10. United Health Care Stock Implodes After Withdrawing Guidance, CEO Suddenly Resigns, and WSJ Alleges DOJ Fraud Probe
  11. We’re harder on the ones that are listening
  12. Tariff Tilly (Satire)
  13. Manufacturing Jobs of the Past
  14. The Most Regulated States
  15. Spending on Necessities Has Declined Dramatically in the United States
  16. Learnings From Trading Short Volatility Funds, 2. Use Leveraged Stock Funds Instead
  17. Discuss AI Boom with Joy on May 12
  18. What is truth? The Bayesian Dawid-Skene Method
  19. “How Can the US Manufacture More” Is a Reasonable Question That Deserves Reasonable Answers
  20. The Middle/Working Class Has Not Been “Hollowed Out”
  21. Learnings From Trading Short Volatility Funds, 1. The Tantalizing Promise of Quick Riches
  22. A reminder on uncertainty
  23. Discuss AI Doom with Joy on May 5
  24. An Egg-cellent Consumer Surplus Calculation?
  25. Kaggle Wins for Data Sharing

April 2025

  1. GDP Forecasting: Models, Experts, or Markets?
  2. Why Chicken Is So Affordable: The Revolutionary Cornish Cross Broiler
  3. Streetlighting and Crime
  4. When Commitment Backfires: The Economics Behind Gang Tattoos and Changing Incentives
  5. 95 Days of Trump Spending & Cutting
  6. Anti-Tariff Declaration
  7. Is Every Stock a Tariff Stock?
  8. How Scott Bessent Outfoxed Peter Navarro to Get the 90 Day Tariff Pause
  9. Better Stealing than Dealing
  10. Understanding Inflation and Interest Rates
  11. It’s the Humidity
  12. The Best Investments of the 1970s
  13. GDPNow: Still Negative on Q1, But Less So
  14. Long-Short Funds Can Mitigate Your Portfolio Gyrations
  15. What I’ve been reading
  16. Research on Big Questions April 2025
  17. Old Fashioned Function Keys
  18. The Wild Market of July 8th, 2025
  19. Other “I, Pencils”
  20. If Tariffs Are So Bad, Why Are They So Common?
  21. We did this to ourselves
  22. When Genius Failed
  23. Join Joy to discuss Artificial Intelligence in May 2025
  24. Now published: Human capital of the US deaf Population, 1850-1910
  25. Trump’s National Sales Tax
  26. Freedom to Trade Internationally
  27. My Visit to a Maple Syrup Producer in Vermont

March 2025

  1. On Da Vinci and Boredom
  2. Get your HHS Data Ahead of Cuts
  3. Joy on Al Jazeera
  4. Messy Disability Records in the Historical Censuses
  5. Home Health Certificate of Need
  6. Podcast Recommendation: Acquired
  7. Eat That Chickweed Growing in Your Yard
  8. The Rule of Law
  9. Reaction to Rux on Fertility
  10. Optimal Protein Consumption in the 21st Century: A Model
  11. Are You A Business, Man? The Surprising Benefits Of A Sole Prop and IRA
  12. The Price of Eggs: Long-Run Perspective
  13. Perspective: This Stock Correction Fear, Too, Will Pass
  14. Solve for the Equilibrium, as They Say
  15. Information Regarding Russian Voting
  16. A Forgotten Data Goldmine: Foreign Commerce and Navigation Reports
  17. Michigan Consumer Surveys: Individual-Response Data
  18. US Federal Government Spending Hasn’t Decreased (Yet)
  19. Is This a Stock Market Correction or a Bear Market?
  20. Damage Control, today and tomorrow
  21. How Americans Can Thank the World
  22. Trump Cutting & Spending: Day 45
  23. Europe Doesn’t Have to Be A Defenseless Museum
  24. Understanding the Projected GDP Decline
  25. The Many Faces of Mary Jane: Effects of THC, CBD, and Other Cannabinoids
  26. Complementarities are hard to forecast
  27. EconTalk Extra on Erik Hoel
  28. What does the Department of Education even do?

February 2025

  1. County Demographic Data: A Clean Panel 1969-2023
  2. Women Have Always Worked More Than Men: Hours of Work Since 1900
  3. The Effects of the Recreational Drugs Kava and Kratom
  4. There’s nothing creative about DOGE
  5. Information Regarding Russia
  6. Trump’s Economic Policy Uncertainty
  7. Hospitals Remain Full Even as Covid Subsides
  8. Foreigners Aren’t Taking Our Jobs
  9. My Visit to A Kava / Kratom / Hemp Shop
  10. Relevant indicators for evaluating the prospect of democratic collapse
  11. Adam Smith and broadening horizons
  12. Forecasting the Fed: Description Vs Prescription
  13. National Survey of Children’s Health Backup
  14. 2024 Labor Market: Not the Greatest Ever, But Pretty, Pretty Good
  15. Why Low Returns Are Predicted for Stocks Over the Next Decade
  16. Is there a competitive threat to the NBA?
  17. Telling Stories at the Campfire
  18. RGDP Underestimates Welfare
  19. Triumph of the Data Hoarders
  20. Was the US at Our Richest in the 1890s?
  21. After the Fall: What Next for Nvidia and AI, In the Light of DeepSeek
  22. Shocked
  23. Using Taylor Swift to teach about Adam Smith

January 2025

  1. How FRASER Enhances Economic Research and Analysis
  2. The Big Ideas
  3. The Wealth of Generations: 2024 Third Quarter Update
  4. Reblog: One acceptable truth or a million fantasies
  5. DeepSeek vs. ChatGPT: Has China Suddenly Caught or Surpassed the U.S. in AI?
  6. What we hear at the campfire
  7. Buying on Margin is Like an Option
  8. Forecasting 2025
  9. One Hundred Years of U.S. State Taxation
  10. Free Webinar, Jan. 25: Practical and Ethical Aspects of Future Artificial Intelligence
  11. Paying people not to work can save a lot of money
  12. The Chair on Netflix
  13. Intersectionality Eliminates Measured Hiring Bias
  14. The Little Book of Common Sense Investing
  15. Is the Great Grocery Inflation Over?
  16. Study Shows AI Can Enable Information-Stealing (Phishing) Campaigns
  17. Is there a fiduciary obligation to be extorted?
  18. No Tech Workers or No Tech Jobs?
  19. Keeping Receipts
  20. New Website
  21. Housing Quality Has Improved Dramatically Since the 1980s — For the Poorest Households
  22. Beware the Impactful Gastro-Intestinal “Norovirus”
  23. A requested regression
  24. A Wartime Natural Experiment About Copyright
  25. ¡Hedonic Frijoles! …And Televisions!
  26. Homicides in 2024 Were Down Significantly
  27. 2024 in Books

2024 317

December 2024

  1. Red Lobster Out of Bankruptcy Proceedings, Set Up to Be Plundered Again by Private Equity
  2. Blake Lively and disinformation tipping points
  3. David Hume’s Wisdom in the Age of AI
  4. Tariffs: Bad for Revenue
  5. What I Learned from Erwin Blackstone
  6. Nintendo vs Nintendo: Time Prices of Video Games in 1986 and 2024
  7. Ho Ho Ho – – It’s Time for the Annual Santa Claus Stock Rally
  8. Happy holidays
  9. Updated List of Top Posts for 2024
  10. Excel’s Weird (In)Convenience: COUNTIF, AVERAGEIF, & STDEVIF
  11. WSJ: Nothing Important Happened in China, India, or AI This Year
  12. Economic Nostalgia: 1890s Edition
  13. Seven Reasons Why Americans Pay So Much for Health Care
  14. Tradeoffs: Bluesky edition
  15. Humans are struggling to understand LLM Progress
  16. The Mythology of Rice and Beans
  17. Predicting College Closures: Now with Machine Learning
  18. House Prices and Quality: 1971 vs 2023
  19. My New Favorite Mass Cookie Recipe: Sally’s Chewy Oatmeal Chocolate Chip
  20. New evidence on the effects of legal financial obligations
  21. Handmade Sweaters Cost $500
  22. The Price of a Complete [Animal] Protein
  23. We’ve Got You Covered
  24. “Time Prices” Today Compared With 1924 and 1971
  25. Weight Lifting is for You
  26. The customer is often wrong

November 2024

  1. Joy on AI in Higher Education
  2. Lump Sum Taxes: Never by Popular Demand
  3. The Laboratory of the States: Regulatory Reform Edition
  4. Don’t Let Nominal Prices Fool You (Thanksgiving Edition)
  5. My Frozen Assets at BlockFi, Part 4: Full Recovery of My Funds
  6. Cato Globalization book out in paperback
  7. More Productive than “Smart”
  8. National Survey of Drug Use and Health State-Level Data: Now Cleaned in Excel and Stata
  9. Thanksgiving Meal Continues to Get Cheaper
  10. The Trend Is Your Friend: Momentum Stock Funds
  11. Working through work from home
  12. Human Pettiness Knows No Bounds
  13. Post-Pandemic Lumber Market
  14. I Give Up, Standard & Poor’s Wins
  15. Did Inflation Make the Median Voter Poorer?
  16. Will Growth Stocks Continue to Trounce Value Stocks?
  17. Don’t overthink it
  18. Why Podcasts Succeeded in Gaining Influence Where MOOCs Failed
  19. Protein, Protein Everywhere
  20. What Markets Expect From A Trump Presidency
  21. Big Win for Prediction Markets
  22. Investing Implications of Endless Huge Federal Deficits
  23. Democracy is hard to forecast
  24. Effort Transparency and Fairness Published at Public Choice
  25. Parkinson’s Law Before Class
  26. Thoughts on the Candidates’ Economic Plans

October 2024

  1. Federal Spending in 2024 was $2.3 Trillion More Than 2019
  2. Can Actively Managed Stock Funds Beat the Market?
  3. What if they’re listening?
  4. Can researchers recruit human subjects online to take surveys anymore?
  5. Interest Rates PSA (No Math)
  6. Real Time Crime Index
  7. A Simple Presidential Election Model, Using Three Economic Variables
  8. The Bulls Speak: Reasons Why Stocks Will Keep Going Up
  9. At the moment (updated 10/22/24)
  10. Physics Highlights from What is Real
  11. Un Poco Loco, But Effective? Almost 1 Year of President Milei
  12. Long-Run Prediction Markets Just Got More Accurate
  13. Where Are The 7 Million Missing Men?
  14. Bonkers BBC Weather App: 18,995 mile/hour Winds in U.K.
  15. Apropos of everything
  16. Literature Review is a Difficult Intellectual Task
  17. Interest Rates & Wining
  18. What Makes Rhode Island Special?
  19. What Are the Effects of TCJA? It’s A Little Hard to Say
  20. The Dietary Salt Wars
  21. It won’t be liberals that kill the Cybertruck
  22. Writing with ChatGPT Buchanan Seminar on YouTube
  23. Florida Ballot Initiatives 2024
  24. Forecasting Swing States with Economic Data
  25. The Wealth of Generations: Mid-2024 Update
  26. Herd Mentality Among Pediatricians Caused Current Peanut Allergy Epidemic

September 2024

  1. The Power is still out
  2. Probability Theory for the Minecraft Generation
  3. Federalism in Action: The Case of Alcohol and Local Autonomy
  4. Rockonomics Highlights
  5. Consumer Expenditures in 2023
  6. Did Sherlock Holmes Really Wear a Deerstalker Hat?
  7. Bad service is a sign of a better world
  8. Paper on Finance and Economics Women Club
  9. Interpreting New DIDs
  10. Our Bizarre Labor Market
  11. The Top 1 Percent Paid a Lot of Taxes in 2021
  12. Easter Island Ecological Collapse Debunked
  13. Notes from Greg Mankiw podcast
  14. Human Capital is Technologically Contingent
  15. The Economics of Taylor Swift
  16. Better Off Than 4 Years Ago? Median Family Income Edition
  17. How Many People Think the Earth is Flat, and Doesn’t Move?
  18. You’re doing it now
  19. Rote Education has a Purpose
  20. The Consumingest States of 2023
  21. What is vision insurance good for?
  22. The Cumulative Effect of Small Changes in Economic Growth
  23. Charles Hugh Smith: Six Reasons the Global Economy Is Toast
  24. Happy Labor Day, here’s a prediction

August 2024

  1. Assorted Saturday Items
  2. More Immigrants, More Safety
  3. Leave Me Alone and I’ll Make You Rich
  4. Grocery Inflation Since 2019: BLS Data is Probably About Right
  5. Funds Paying “Return of Capital” Give You (Sort of) Tax-Free Income
  6. Why was the Democratic Convention so patriotic?
  7. Top EWED Posts of 2024
  8. Persistent Beliefs
  9. People Are Paying for Music Again
  10. Did 818,000 jobs vanish?
  11. Many Impressive AI Demos Were Fakes
  12. Interpreting candidate policies
  13. Sticky Prices as Coordination Failure Working Paper
  14. Services, and Goods, and Software (Oh My!)
  15. Robinhood’s Casino Comps
  16. On Average, American Wage Earners are Better Off Than They Were Four Years Ago
  17. Behind Last Week’s Stock Minicrash: Unwind of the Yen Carry Trade
  18. Insuring the suspension of disapproval
  19. Publish or Perish: A Hilarious Card Game Based on Academia
  20. Recession Prospecting & Fed Tea Leaves
  21. A Continually Updated Bernanke-Taylor Rule
  22. Taxes, Children, and the Zero Bracket
  23. Will the Huge Corporate Spending on AI Pay Off?
  24. The median voter remains (probabilistically) undefeated
  25. Culture Parenting Chatter
  26. IPUMS Data Intensive Workshop & Conference
  27. Venezuelans Vote Overwhelmingly Against Maduro

July 2024

  1. Fiscal Illusion: It’s Real (People Underestimate How Much They Pay in Taxes)
  2. Tech Stocks Sag as Analysists Question How Much Money Firms Will Actually Make from AI
  3. On field experiments and null effects
  4. Sources on AI use of Information
  5. You, Parent, Should have a Robot Vacuum
  6. When Beer is Safer than Water
  7. Inflation in the G7 and Russia
  8. How to (Almost) Double Your Investing Returns 3. “Stacked” Multi-Asset Funds
  9. Who will blow the whistle?
  10. See New York City for Cheap
  11. MSNE Echoes PSNE
  12. One Up on Wall Street in the Meme Stock Era
  13. The Crime Wave May Be Over
  14. How to (Almost) Double Your Investing Returns 2. Buy Deep in the Money Calls
  15. Maximizing winning versus minimizing losing
  16. Oster on Haidt and Screens
  17. From Cubicles to Code – Evolving Investment Priorities from 1990 to 2022
  18. “Cheapflation”: Inflation Really Does Hit the Bottom Harder
  19. Zoning Matters for Rising Housing Costs, Especially After 1980
  20. How to Roughly Double Your Investing Returns 1. 2X (or 3X) Leveraged Funds
  21. The median voter can save us all…if the system allows for it
  22. Meme Generator for Econ Papers
  23. GLIF Social Media Memes
  24. Market Preserving Federalism in the USA
  25. Goodbye, Chevron
  26. Who Will Be the Democratic Presidential Candidate? Follow the Money (Betting Markets)
  27. How Repurposing Graphic Processing Chips Made Nvidia the Most Valuable Company on Earth
  28. The President as Authoritarian

June 2024

  1. Is the Universe Legible to Intelligence?
  2. Do I Trust Claude 3.5 Sonnet?
  3. Not Just Consumer Prices
  4. Coming In to Land
  5. Young Americans Continue to Build Wealth, Across the Distribution
  6. Boardroom Backstabbing: The Rise of “Lender-on-Lender Violence”
  7. We are all leading with what bleeds
  8. Real and Nominal Rigidities Research
  9. Advice For Travelling With Children
  10. The Calming Psychology of Money
  11. The Growth of Black Wealth and Income in the United States
  12. How To Drive a Turbocharged Car, Such as a Honda CR-V
  13. What is the optimal amount of time off?
  14. Trusting ChatGPT at JBEE
  15. Future Consumption Has Never Been Cheaper
  16. Woodstock for Nerds: Highlights from Manifest
  17. Was 2022 The “Deadliest Year on Record” For Children in Arkansas?
  18. Is the Monster Jobs Report Just a Head-Fake?
  19. The extremely long term is often a public good
  20. Latest from Leopold on AGI
  21. Corporate Landlords Make Rent… Lower?
  22. Predicting College Closures
  23. 2023 Jobs Data
  24. How an All-U-Can-Eat Special Driven by a Controlling Investor Pushed Red Lobster Over the Edge
  25. The decline of oil is really actually happening this time
  26. Gear Swaps are Happening

May 2024

  1. Taxes & Unemployment – Know Your Bias?
  2. Prediction Markets As Investments
  3. Grocery Price Nostalgia: 1980 Edition
  4. On Good and (Mostly) Bad Investments
  5. Academic economists are overcommitted
  6. Do Less for Preschool
  7. Hotel Taxes and Quality: Why Georgia Sucks (Value)
  8. Childhoods of exceptional people
  9. Income Growth Since 1966 in the US
  10. How To Import a List of Names and Addresses into Gmail Contact Group
  11. Athletes get a lot of bad financial advice
  12. Humanity’s Childhood and Chiefs
  13. Almost Observable Human Capital
  14. How to Keep Up With Economics
  15. Where’s the Deflation?
  16. “Roaring Kitty” Returns to Social Media, and Reignites Stock Frenzy
  17. Travel Bleg: Montana
  18. Accounting Appears Before Literature
  19. Not Crazy: Insurance Premiums
  20. Why Don’t Full Daycares Raise Prices?
  21. What’s Killing Girls Ages 10-14?
  22. Proposal: Mandating Hard Prison Time for CEO’s of Companies Whose Consumer Data Gets Hacked Would Cut Down on Data Breaches
  23. Brief thoughts from attending SOLE 2024
  24. Sugar Fast Blog
  25. Social Cost Irregularities
  26. The Largest Health Systems in the US
  27. How Much Inflation Do Americans Want?

April 2024

  1. My Frozen Assets at BlockFi, Part3: I Finally Recovered 27% of My Original Funds.
  2. The effect of the minimum wage on everything
  3. Zuckerberg wants to solve general intelligence
  4. Fossil Fuel Frenzy: The Driving Force Behind US Extractive Growth
  5. How Do Certificate of Need Laws Affect Health Care Workers?
  6. Counting Jobs (Revisited)
  7. Instantly Filling Holes, Building Up Solids Using Superglue with Toilet Paper or Baking Soda
  8. Civil War as radical literalism
  9. Joy on The Inductive Economy podcast
  10. The Time it Took for Price to Rise
  11. Ten Years Gone: Temple University’s Economics PhD
  12. Wages Have Increased Faster Than Prices Since 2019 (Unless You are Rich)
  13. Rate Cuts Looking Dubious for 2024
  14. Trader Vic’s Mai Tai
  15. Hanging the curtains back up
  16. The Self-Correcting Property
  17. New Data on Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations
  18. Grocery Inflation is Under Control, Fast Food Prices Aren’t
  19. Recovering My Frozen Assets at BlockFi 2. Scams and More Scams
  20. Costly introspection
  21. Cowen on Smith at AdamSmithWorks
  22. Coffee’s Supply & Demand Dance during Prohibition
  23. Should Medicare Cover Anti-Obesity Drugs?
  24. Social Media, Mental Health, and Young People
  25. Historians Admit To Inventing Ancient Greeks
  26. Rhesus Politik

March 2024

  1. Classroom activities for teaching Monetary Policy
  2. Where the fish has no name
  3. Daniel Kahneman: Psychologist and Economist, Pathbreaker and Popularizer
  4. “The Pope and the Price of Fish”
  5. It’s Not Too Late to Get Your Eclipse Glasses for the April 8 Solar Eclipse
  6. AI contracting and the blockchain
  7. Notes on ChatGPT from Sama with Lex
  8. 3 Economic Lessons in 1 Classroom Activity
  9. Medicaid: The Best, and Worst, Health Insurance
  10. Median MSA Incomes: 1949 vs 2022
  11. Recovering My Frozen Assets at BlockFi, Part1. How Sam Bankman-Fried’s Fraud Cost Me.
  12. Elder care, returns to scale, and club goods
  13. What the Superintelligence can do for us
  14. Where Can You Still Buy a Great Dinner in the US?
  15. Borrowing, Beef, and Break-even
  16. Abnormal Times Call for Abnormal Policies
  17. How Long Does It Take Prices to Double?
  18. Business Development Companies: My Favorite Class of High Yield Investments
  19. How to Train Your Artificial Economist
  20. Let parents pay to take kids out of school
  21. The Money Value of Time
  22. When Will the Fed Raise Rates?
  23. Shrinkflation: Not Just for Cookies
  24. A Contrarian View from Apollo: No Rate Cuts in 2024
  25. What I’ve been watching
  26. Videos for Teaching Inflation in 2024
  27. How This Economist Cares for a Baby

February 2024

  1. Pistol Squats Complete the Home Workout
  2. Alabama’s Homicide Rate is More than Double New York City
  3. Most Effective Over the Counter Cold Remedies
  4. How to destroy or save a discipline
  5. Books the 8-year-old likes
  6. Wanna Teach Economics?
  7. The Best Personal Finance Books
  8. Food Inflation in the G7 and Russia
  9. Stock Options Tutorial 3. Selling Options to Generate Extra Income
  10. The Unified Theory of Excel
  11. Programmer Pain in Memes
  12. Covid Death Structural Breaks
  13. Go East, Young Man
  14. The US Housing Market Is Very Quickly Becoming Unaffordable
  15. Is “Rich Dad Poor Dad” a Fraud?
  16. What happens when NCAA athletes unionize?
  17. Tyler Supporting Women in the GOAT book
  18. Taylor Swift to the Super Bowl with AdamSmithWorks
  19. Arbitrary Framing & Economic Reality
  20. Medicaid Cuts Mean Credit Card Debt
  21. Younger Generations Have Higher Incomes Too (and it’s probably not explained by the rise of dual-income families)
  22. Bride Who Called Off Wedding Donates $15,000 Reception to Special Needs Families; and Other Good News.
  23. Does GPT-4 Know How High the Alps Are?
  24. A Measure of Dissimilarity
  25. Historical State GDP Data

January 2024

  1. Why Was Federal Tax Revenue Down in 2023?
  2. Stop Using Your Administrator Account Routinely on Your PC
  3. Why don’t Americans migrate anymore?
  4. How ChatGPT works from geography and Stephen Wolfram
  5. Government Purchases and How Markets Avoid Messes
  6. Does More Health Spending Buy Better Outcomes for States?
  7. Young People Have a Lot More Wealth Than We Thought
  8. Hazards of the Internet of Things 2. Big Brother Is Watching Your Every Breath
  9. Avoid subfield tunnel vision
  10. Intelligence for School Closing
  11. Teaching Taxes w/GIFs
  12. Where is Health Care The Biggest Part of the Economy?
  13. Follow the Money in Politics
  14. Hazards of the Internet of Things 1. Hacking of Devices (Baby Monitors, Freezers, Hospital Ventilators) in Homes and Institutions
  15. You don’t know what you will like
  16. Teaching Resource: List of Econ Podcasts for Spring 2024
  17. Cal Newport on Smartphones for Kids
  18. Supply & Demand, With gifs
  19. Industries Without Investors
  20. Are The Jobs Numbers Fake?
  21. San Francisco Fed Says Pandemic Surplus Is Gone; Boston Fed Demurs
  22. The Power Game
  23. Using Phind for Academic References
  24. The re-Americanization of the American Economic Association Meetings
  25. Why Avocado on Toast?
  26. ASSA 2024: Unrejected
  27. Economic Growth in 2024 and Beyond
  28. Stock Options Tutorial 2. How Options Are Priced
  29. Obviously wrong ideas are a sign of a healthy discipline

2023 319

December 2023

  1. Updated List of Top Blogs for 2023
  2. 3 Great Habits from 3 Great Economists
  3. The Open Internet Is Dead; Long Live The Open Internet
  4. 2023: Great Labor Market, or Greatest Labor Market?
  5. Saba Closed-End Funds ETF (CEFS): Have Finance Legend Boaz Weinstein Manage Your Closed End Fund Investments
  6. Merry Christmas
  7. ChatGPT on Advent
  8. DID Explainer and Application (STATA)
  9. Robert Solow on Sustainability
  10. How the Economy is Doing vs. How People Think the Economy is Doing
  11. Sorry, you caught me between critical masses
  12. Chapman Economists Revise Forecast
  13. Update on Game Theory Teaching
  14. National Health Expenditure Accounts Historical State Data: Cleaned, Merged, Inflation Adjusted
  15. State Tax Revenue is Down a Lot in 2023 (but really just back to normal levels)
  16. Former Treasury Official Defends Decision to Issue Short Term Debt for Pandemic; I’m Not Buying It
  17. Godzilla Minus One is fantastic
  18. Do People Trust ChatGPT Writing?
  19. GPT-4 Generates Fake Citations
  20. Wrapping Up & Sneak Peaks
  21. The Greatest NBA Coach Is… Dan Issel?
  22. Where Can You Still Buy an Affordable Home in the US?
  23. Charlie Munger’s Rule for a Happy Life
  24. Why I think we’ve hit peak pessimism
  25. Joy’s Fashion Globalization Article with Cato
  26. House Rich, House Richer

November 2023

  1. OpenAI, IZA, and The Limits of Formal Power
  2. Are You Better Off Than You Were Four Years Ago?
  3. Stock Options Tutorial 1. Options Fundamentals
  4. I’m not going to write a post this week
  5. Thanksgiving Links
  6. Growth of the Transfer State
  7. Happy Thanksgiving from EWED
  8. Let’s Be Thankful for Food Abundance
  9. Mutiny in Silicon Valley: OpenAI Workforce May Quit and Join Microsoft If Board Does Not Resign and Bring Back Former CEO Sam Altman
  10. Stop and Frisk was an Unmitigated Disaster
  11. The current alliance to counter digital piracy
  12. Malinvestment Produces Knowledge
  13. New Orleans Redux: SEA 2023
  14. Thanksgiving 2023 is the Second Cheapest Ever (Relative to Earnings)
  15. “The Biggest Blunder in The History of The Treasury”: Yellen’s Failure to Issue Longer-Term Treasury Debt When Rates Were Low
  16. OnlyFans models are creating cults politicians can only dream of
  17. Axios Survey of Americans on AI Regulation
  18. Delinquency Data
  19. Replication Funding for Development Economics
  20. Food Prices Are Up, But Let’s not Overstate How Much
  21. Bored? You Can Join in a Giant Tomato Fight in Spain!!
  22. Make sure your gifts give, not take
  23. EWED Recommends Gifts 2023
  24. 5 Practical Gifts for 2023
  25. Econ Tourism
  26. Finding Deals on Food

October 2023

  1. Great Presents: Fiskars Scissors That Will Cut Nearly Anything and Leatherman Micra Tool
  2. Policy can change contexts, not people
  3. What We Are Learning about Paper Books
  4. More Or Less Money
  5. The Underpriced Joe Biden
  6. Inflation Update: With and Without the Outliers
  7. Analysts See Sweeping Financial Impact of New Weight Loss Drugs; Reality May Fall Short
  8. Collective action is easier if you’re trying to produce a public good
  9. Podcast on Engineer’s Mindset and Soft Skills
  10. We Should Pay for Good Journalism
  11. Fear of the Unknown and Fear of the Known
  12. Poland’s Electoral Catalyst
  13. Kids Are Much Less Likely to Be Killed by Cars Than in the Past
  14. Why Is Stock Market Volatility ( VIX ) So Low?
  15. What’s the closest substitute for a firearm?
  16. Can anyone be an entrepreneur?
  17. Is the repair revolution coming?
  18. The Goldin Nobel
  19. Is the Job Growth Driven by Part-Time Workers?
  20. Pandemic Excess Savings Still Powering the Hot Economy
  21. Video for new ChatGPT users
  22. The Vicinity of Celebrity Obscenity
  23. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Is Still Easy
  24. Pinball Prices (Not Adjusted for Inflation)
  25. The Internet Knows EVERYTHING: Stopping My Car Alarm from Randomly Triggering
  26. Publications and Grants, LLC
  27. Solving the Participation Pickle with Pick.al

September 2023

  1. Review of Cowen Tabarrok Econ Textbook
  2. It Takes a Village
  3. New Center for the Restoration of Economic Data
  4. Who is the Wealthiest Generation? Mid-2023 Update
  5. Wastewater Testing: COVID Surge Maybe Delayed for Now
  6. The NFL doesn’t want to pay for risk
  7. Pilates Works and Free Videos Make It Easier to Commit
  8. Rat to Research Discourse
  9. Hand-in-Hand: Demand & Technology
  10. OpenAI wants you to fool their AI
  11. Median Family Income in US States, 2022
  12. The Fermi Paradox: Where Are All Those Aliens?
  13. Innovation as inspiration
  14. Asking EWED if the Aliens Visited
  15. Christine Lagarde on Instability in 2023
  16. Dysfunctional Virtue: A Tale of No Profits
  17. Bond King Doesn’t Like Bonds
  18. Median Income Is Down Again. Are There Any Silver Linings in the Data?
  19. Generative AI Nano-Tutorial
  20. AI as matter compiler
  21. Assorted Links on Women and Family
  22. The Inner Ring and Barbie and Academia
  23. [Not] Choosing Rationally
  24. Cool the Schools
  25. The Dodge Caravan, Quality Improvements, and Affordability
  26. Is Long Covid Really a Thing?
  27. Condescension shouldn’t signal competence
  28. Joy on the Barbie movie
  29. Interpolation Vs Transition

August 2023

  1. Long Covid is Real in the Claims Data… But so is “Early Covid”?
  2. What are the Richest and Poorest MSAs in the US? Cost of Living Is Probably Less Important Than You Think
  3. Collapsible Boats You Can Store in Your Apartment: ORU Folding Kayaks and MyCanoe Canoes
  4. When is success uncorrelated with competence?
  5. Top EWED Blogs of 2023
  6. Life Tables are Cool
  7. The Least Terrible Car Safety Sites
  8. Does the Unemployment Rate Tell the Whole Story about the Labor Market?
  9. Help! My Celery is Too Stringy to Eat!
  10. Why aren’t the writers and actors guilds trying to break the studio cartel?
  11. Confronting my Macroeconomics Professor
  12. Everyone Happy? Student Loan Repayment
  13. US Stocks Are Expensive, These Countries Are Not
  14. Manufacturing Compensation in the Long Run
  15. New EG.5 Variant Spreading: Start of New Covid Surge?
  16. What is happening at West Virginia University?
  17. Maia on the Barbie movie
  18. 5 Game Theory Course Changes
  19. Comprehensive Cancer Centers: Expensive But Fast
  20. Barbie Dolls and Women’s Wages
  21. Perma-Bear Jeffrey Snider: The Job Market Is Rolling Over, the Slide Into Recession Is Inevitable
  22. There’s never been a better time to teach yourself something
  23. Secondhand for AdamSmithWorks
  24. 5 Easy Steps to Improve Your Course Evals.
  25. Knowing When To Sell: Portfolio Review
  26. Answer: No, We Were Not in a Recession
  27. Solar Cookers: Save Money, Save Lives, Save the Planet by Cooking with the Sun’s Rays

July 2023

  1. Guidance counselors are good
  2. Oppenheimer Film Thoughts
  3. Easy FRED Stata Data
  4. 80% Efficient Markets: Why I Buy Individual Stocks
  5. A Pessimistic Take on Inflation
  6. What Should a Businessman Be Willing to Die For?
  7. On EJMR, status competitions, and tapeworms
  8. Success in starting
  9. Smoky Mountains Tourism
  10. Prohibition Reversals
  11. 13th Time’s A Charm: Finally Grant Funded
  12. The Rate of Inflation is Falling, But Prices are Still Rising (And So are Wages)
  13. Audio Visual Stimulation: Pulses of Light and Sound To Shape Your Brain Waves To Help You Sleep, Relax, Be More Alert, Less Depressed, Etc., Etc.
  14. Some things are expensive because the value of human life has never been higher
  15. Secondhand by Adam Minter
  16. Gari Melchers
  17. Mortgage Fraud Is Surprisingly Common Among Real Estate Investors
  18. Updated GDP and Inflation Data for G7 Countries
  19. Malwarebytes Poll: Public Fascination with ChapGPT Has Turned to Suspicion
  20. Policies are an uncoordinated bundle
  21. EconTwitter Platforms and Threads
  22. Awards for young talent are antinatalist
  23. Basic Immigration Logic
  24. A Dangerous Year For Economists
  25. Economic Growth in the United States
  26. Bespoke misinformation as solution to targeted disinformation
  27. Canadian Wildfires Will Burn All Summer; Ways to Filter the Air in Your Home
  28. The Part I Remember from Eat, Pray, Love

June 2023

  1. Competition and Racial Exclusion
  2. Replicating Research with Restricted Data
  3. The Cost of Raising a Child, Revisited
  4. My $109 Raspberry Plant: Growing “Raspberry Shortcake” in a Container
  5. Begging for legislation is the last refuge of the dying cartel
  6. Practical Sewing, Washing, and Drying Tips
  7. Chapman University Economic Forecast Update 2023
  8. Accidental Good Will
  9. Wives Slightly Out-earning Husbands Is No Longer Weird
  10. The American Family Is Thriving, Even if They Only Have One Male Earner (But Most Don’t)
  11. Chocolate Prices Will Shoot Up
  12. Variance means looking past who won
  13. To Dunk or Not to Dunk
  14. Intro to Textual Indices: Ngrams & Newspapers
  15. A Surprisingly Good Year for Homebuilders
  16. “Good Money at the Time”
  17. Analysts’ Systematic Bias Makes Companies “Beating Estimates” Fairly Meaningless
  18. “Sportswashing” is a byproduct of the end of oil
  19. You Cannot Cut Nominal Wages: Weavers in 1738
  20. Unpopular Grocery Opinions
  21. Historical Price to Earnings Ratios By Industry
  22. Disinformation Is Real, And It Is a Concern
  23. How Ceramic Pans Work and How to Restore Their Non-Stick Coating
  24. Economists should fix our own monopsonistic market before we tell everyone else what to do
  25. New Paper with Evidence that ChatGPT Hallucinates Nonexistent Citations
  26. Pins to Patterns at AdamSmithWorks
  27. Supply & Demand, with Tables?
  28. EWED Highlights: Investing

May 2023

  1. Is College Enrollment Falling?
  2. Carl Icahn Under Siege: The Predator Becomes the Prey
  3. The debt ceiling crisis was real and will be again
  4. The Value of Student Organizations and On-Campus Education: Anecdotal Evidence from Tim Keller
  5. Early or Late, Never On-Time
  6. South Carolina Repeals Certificate of Need
  7. Inflation in G20 Countries
  8. Why No Recession (Yet)
  9. The problem is the (lack of) points
  10. Is Your Head in the Arm Hole of Your Dress?
  11. Beware of Scatterplots
  12. Music Rights Are Surprisingly Cheap and Easy to Buy
  13. “Studies Show”: Marijuana Legalization and Opioid Deaths
  14. Save $$$, Easily Change Your Car Cabin Air Filter Yourself
  15. Video of Joy Buchanan on Tech Jobs and Who Will Program
  16. Video: Joy Presents Two Experimental Papers to a Macro Class
  17. Improved University Retention By Selecting for Mission Fit
  18. The End of Erdogan? Forecasting the Turkish Election
  19. The Growing Irrelevance of the Federal Minimum Wage
  20. Leading Indicators Show Incoming Recession; Lagging Indicators Not So Much
  21. PTO can buy school supplies in bulk
  22. Animated AS AD Model
  23. Highlights from #EconTwitterIRL
  24. Housing Costs Revisited: What About Renters?
  25. Regulation and Delayed Updates: Why Services Inflation Will Likely Stay High
  26. Why Tenure

April 2023

  1. Tenure Reflections from Joy
  2. Buying Your New Home: Process and Strategy
  3. Health Insurance and Wages: Compensating Differentials in Reverse?
  4. Spending on Housing: It Hasn’t Really Increased in the Past 40 Years
  5. China To Squeeze West by Restricting Export of Essential Rare Earths
  6. How should Twitter make money?
  7. Fashion is not just for teen girls
  8. Clarity on the Federal Debt
  9. More Ideas Pages
  10. Inflation and GDP Growth in the G7 Revisited
  11. Bitcoin’s Dramatic Comeback: Resurrection or Dead Cat Bounce?
  12. ChatGPT is your new intern
  13. Comparing ChatGPT and Bing for a research literature review in April 2023
  14. Spending Like a…
  15. Why States Hate Nursing Homes
  16. Workers Finally Get a Real Annual Raise
  17. Job Market Still Red-Hot; Inflation and High Rates Not Going Away Soon
  18. Let’s start an AEA Working Paper Series
  19. GPT showing off on Conversations with Tyler
  20. Minor Investment
  21. Hospitals Just Got Easier to Build in West Virginia
  22. Whiteboard Macroeconomics
  23. Work From Home Sours Financing for Office Buildings, Which Threatens Regional Banks
  24. Six ideas to reduce firearms deaths
  25. Adam Smith in Taylor Swift

March 2023

  1. Fed Priority #1: Financial System Stability
  2. Is Equity Crowdfunding Beating Adverse Selection?
  3. The Leading Causes of Death Among Elementary-Age Children
  4. Banking Crises: Are We Done Yet?
  5. John Wick 4 is in theatres because of a market failure
  6. Discrepancy in Views about Music Pirating
  7. Deaf Census Speculations
  8. Why are desktop computers so cheap?
  9. What is $100 from the Late Nineteenth Century Worth Today?
  10. A Guide to the Various Banking Troubles
  11. Artificial intelligence and the market in mitigating rational ignorance
  12. Tyler vs Matt on SVB Bailouts
  13. Self-Replicating Machines: A Practical Human Response
  14. Life Expectancy By State 1990-2019
  15. It’s Never Good News When Deposit Insurance is in the News
  16. Don’t Look Back
  17. Estimating the effects of a slow news cycle
  18. Be Posting Always
  19. The Allure of Overconfidence
  20. Regulatory Costs and Market Power
  21. Excess Mortality and Vaccination Rates in Europe
  22. Warren Buffett’s Secret Sauce: Investing the Insurance “Float”
  23. Don’t get too mad about bad economics journalism
  24. Complacency and American Girl Dolls 2
  25. Self-Conception, Relative Prices, & Confabulation
  26. The ACA and Entrepreneurship: The Importance of Age
  27. The Economics of Brushing Teeth and the Tooth Fairy

February 2023

  1. Why Have Economists Continually Underestimated Projected Inflation?
  2. On minimum wages and the devil’s discount
  3. Yes, it was SMET
  4. Twenty Years of Animal Protein Affordability
  5. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey: Now in Stata and CSV formats
  6. The Minimum Wage and Crime
  7. Potent Portfolio Diversifier: Managed Futures Funds Go Up When Both Stocks and Bonds Go Down
  8. We are all piecemeal workers now
  9. Smet
  10. Renting From the Government?
  11. Always Be Posting
  12. Land-Value Taxes in the Real World: Split-Rate Taxes
  13. Bulls and Bears Spar Over Pace of Inflation Decline and Rate Cuts
  14. The Eagles are going to win*
  15. Iterations of the Survivorship Bias Meme
  16. Itching to Change (Property Rights)
  17. The Murky Macro Picture
  18. The Growth of Black Families Income
  19. A Cornucopia of Financial Data from J. P. Morgan, Relevant to Investors
  20. The blockade on California’s housing supply is unraveling
  21. Chat Transcripts from Property Experiments
  22. The Social Drug of Prohibition
  23. Welcome Tahlia
  24. Economic Recovery from the Pandemic

January 2023

  1. “Five Talents” Microfinance NGO Helps the Poorest of the Poor to Start Their Own Businesses
  2. Redefining American law enforcement
  3. Chesterton Views on Work in 20th Century America
  4. Online Reading Onpaper
  5. Steal My Paper Ideas!
  6. Counting Jobs
  7. Decline in Consumer Use of Cash Is Offset by Criminal Usage of Benjamins
  8. The consequences of minting the trillion dollar coin
  9. ChatGPT Cites Economics Papers That Do Not Exist
  10. If You Get Too Cold, I’ll Tax the Heat
  11. Waxing Crescent: New Orleans 2013-2023
  12. On Counting and Overcounting Deaths
  13. Drivers of Financial Bubbles: Addicts and Enablers
  14. On the paucity of new ideas and the paradox of choice in modern research
  15. New Survey on Bootcamp Graduates
  16. House Rich – House Poor
  17. Highlights from ASSA 2023
  18. The Decline of Working Hours, in the Long Run and Recently
  19. Bank for International Settlements: $70 Trillion Dollars Is Missing from Official Global Financial Accounting
  20. On Costco, Defector Media, and the Illusion of -Isms
  21. Chesterton on Prohibition, and Game Theory
  22. Concentrating on Housing
  23. ASSA 2023: New Orleans!
  24. Air Travel Prices Have Not “Soared” Since 1980 — They’ve Been Cut in Half
  25. Can Central Banks Go Bankrupt?
  26. Your happiness is why your sports team stopped being good

← 2020–2022