The Curious Engineer

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Unexpected Values

ericneyman.blog

A blog about math, philosophy, puzzles, politics, and more.

MathEssays / personalSociety / politics / economy

’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
Posts
62 from 8 Sep 2019 to 4 Jul 2026
Posting
now and then (1 in the last year)
Kind
personal blog
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2026 1

  1. The Newer Colossus

2025 3

  1. Consider donating to AI safety champion Scott Wiener
  2. Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act
  3. Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?

2024 4

  1. Seven lessons I didn’t learn from election day
  2. My puzzles for the 2024 LessOnline puzzle hunt
  3. Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology
  4. My hour of memoryless lucidity

2023 1

  1. How much do you believe your results?

2022 2

  1. Grading my 2021 predictions
  2. Introducing EA-nasir

2021 12

  1. Puzzle: A More Earthly Calendar
  2. Make the tennis service box smaller
  3. Lexeme jest: Eleven excellent genres
  4. Can group identity be a force for good?
  5. My NYC mayoral ballot
  6. Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism
  7. My favorite puzzles from the 2021 MIT Mystery Hunt
  8. Luck and skill in beauty pageants
  9. When the game stops, where will the buck stop?
  10. Pseudorandomness contest: Prizes, results, and analysis
  11. Grading my 2020 predictions
  12. Overall numbers won’t show the English strain coming

2020 25

  1. Predictions for 2021
  2. Alike minds think great
  3. Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2
  4. Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1
  5. Virtue points
  6. Was Nate Silver’s model wrong?
  7. Puzzle solution/hints/comments: Losers and Winners
  8. An elegant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession
  9. A pragmatic guide to voting in the 2020 election
  10. Your vote matters — probably more than you think
  11. Puzzle: Losers and Winners
  12. Pooled COVID testing in the real world
  13. Jelle’s marbles have skill
  14. Puzzle solution/hints: A Choral Arrangement
  15. An exploration of exploitation bias
  16. Against “read or defer” norms
  17. Puzzle: A Choral Arrangement
  18. Chris the Criminal: A mathematical puzzle
  19. How to test and trace if you don’t have enough tests
  20. Scoring rules part 3: Incentivizing precision
  21. Scoring rules part 2: Calibration does not imply classification
  22. Scoring rules part 1: Eliciting truthful predictions
  23. Thoughts on the 2020 Democratic presidential primary
  24. My favorite puzzles from the 2020 MIT Mystery Hunt
  25. My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell test

2019 14

  1. Predictions for 2020
  2. Pete’s problem
  3. Beyond the mean, median, and mode
  4. Finding Shawn Mendes
  5. Should FiveThirtyEight’s elasticity index have a wider spread?
  6. A few things to watch this Tuesday
  7. What to do about undefined expectations?
  8. Lofty expectations
  9. General election polls *are* predictive one year out
  10. Least squares regression isn’t arbitrary
  11. Incentives in the election-charity platform
  12. Provisional opposition
  13. Are we due for another recession? Probably.
  14. Getting money out of politics… and into charity