Exponential View
AI analysis worth reading. Click to read Exponential View, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.
- Posts
- 1,535 from 22 Mar 2015 to 29 Oct 2026
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- about daily (190 in the last year)
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- personal blog
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Latest
October 2026
- 🤖 Microsoft is making room for machines
- 🔮 Anthropic’s S-1 in charts
- 📈 Monday data: For science the bottleneck isn’t intelligence
- 🔮 The internet under attack, AGI compression & the next oil shock that never will be... #607
- The internet’s Wuhan moment
- 📈 Monday data: Who won the trade war?
- 🔮 A world of many minds & the future of work
- 🚨 Anthropic: The agony and the ecstasy
- 📈 What is bigger than AI?
- 🔮 AI & Math 2.0, Pakistan’s solar hedge & who controls computing++
- 🔮 The end of screen time
- 🔮 What is left to do
- 📈 Monday data: More AI, more justice?
- 🔮 The transition is hiding in plain sight #604
- 🔮 Quick weekend reads: the big AI questions
September 2026
- 🚨 The first existential IPO
- 📈 Monday data: Damming the slop floods
- 🔮 The pros and cons of collective AI #603
- 🔮 Safety in numbness
- 🤖 Your agent, whose interests?
- 📈 Monday data: More AI numbers, more clarity?
- To err is human!
- 🔮 AI politics & the future of growth ++ #602
- 🚨 AI doesn’t need a mind to run amok
- 🧠 I do not want your brains to rot
- 🔮 What would Adam Smith make of AI?
- 📈 Anthropic’s $517 billion shopping list
- 🔮 Look up, the curve turned #601
- 📈 AI revenue hit $229 billion
- 🔮 Astra outruns visibility EV#600
- 📈 Data to start your week
August 2026
- 🔮 Unbounded self-improvement and its limits #599
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Why one AI is better than four #598
- 🏦 The problem with petards
- 🫧 Is AI a bubble yet? Our five gauges say no
- 🔮 Introducing: AI Economy Research Fellowship
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 The curious economics of a $6 AI agent #597
- 🔮 The market misread Google’s AI exodus
- 📈 Making sense of the AI capex logjam
- 🔮 Agents form alliances, DeepMind’s reset & how likely is a crash? #596
- 🔮 Seven lessons for managing AI agents
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Leopold & exponential markets; transformative GLP-1s; runaway AI & the future of safety++ #595
- 📚 My non-obvious summer reading list
July 2026
- 🔮 For AI adopters, success and failure look identical — at first
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Copy that: The curious case of AI distillation #594
- 🔮 Will Kimi K3 change the economics of AI?
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Kimi K3 surprise & AI economics; the solar paradox; AI's right to learn, cancer vaccine & junior jobs++
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Reading is dying. GPU demand isn’t.
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #591: Never skilling; tricking OpenClaw; screwworm & progress; synth cells, tungsten & AI superforecasters++
June 2026
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Fifty years of Moore’s Law wasn’t fast enough for AI #580
- 🔮 The state of the AI economy
- 🔮 Product eats the AI company; the bitter lesson prevails; Fable 5 as CEO, undersea diplomacy & jellyfish sleep++ #579
- 🔮 Is AI immune to groupthink?
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #578: Fable & time to pause AI; iPhone vs babies; gene therapy, bad CEOs & Chinese Gen Z++
- ‼️ A blueprint for managed decline
- 🔮 The AI boom is becoming an entrepreneurship boom #577
- 💸 You’re paying for tokens. Now what?
- 🔥 We checked. Again. Still no bubble.
May 2026
- 🔮 Does AI make you dumb? And why our forecasts suck #576
- Live with Azeem: AI & ROI
- 🔮 Why AI isn’t showing up on your bottom line
- 📈 Why AI bills rise as costs fall
- 🔮 Exponential View #575: AI’s math breakthrough and its creative limits
- 👀 The AI backlash is the only thing growing faster than AI revenues
- 📈 Data to start your week: The cost of tokenmaxxing
- 🔮 Exponential View #574: Inside Anthropic’s rocket ship; AI pluralism; love commoditized, context-maxxing & Voltaire++
- 📈 Cerebras and the IPO pop
- 🔮🇨🇳 Inside the Chinese AI labs where America’s AI controls created its toughest competition
- 📈⏳ The broken bargain of Moore’s Law
- 🔮 Exponential View #573: Are the AI labs building for an intelligence explosion?
- 📈 Data to start your week: AI boom, nowhere near the ceiling
- 🔮 Exponential View #572: AI’s moats, myths and moral loopholes
April 2026
- 🔮 Exponential View #571: DeepSeek shows the future, again; drones on a learning curve; solar goes up, LLM pixels & tennis robots++
- 🔮 How Ukraine solved the hardest problem in defense
- 🍏 Apple’s AI bet got a CEO
- 📈 Data to start your week: Inside the AI boom – jobs, jargon & jittery uptime
- 🔮 Exponential View #570: Inside Jensen Huang’s worldview
- 🔮 The classified frontier
- 📈 Data to start your week – The jet fuel inflection point
- 🔮 Exponential View #569: When the future is uncertain, what do you teach?
- 💸 Mythos and the mispricing of everything
- 📈 Data to start your week: The AI capacity trap
- 🔮 Exponential View #568: The labs are rationing. Did you notice?
- 🔮 Autoresearch and the experimental society
March 2026
- 📈 Data to start your week: The AI buildout
- 🔮 Exponential View #567: How AI is rewiring work
- Solving problems with the Karpathy Loop
- 📈 Data to start your week — Helium special
- 🔮 Exponential View #566: A solar shield; AI agents; human judgment; China’s robots++
- 🔮 Jensen’s OpenClaw thesis
- Jensen, OpenClaw and the future of AI
- 🔮 Why I changed my mind about Apple
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #565: Autoresearch; the solar supercycle; an agentic nation; ChatGPT Olympian, seeing fraud & moving asteroids++
- 🔮 The lantern and the flame
- The AI race that Apple is winning
- 🔮 The case for radical solar optimism
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #564: Intelligence as a target; the future of knowledge; AI, productivity & economy; CO2 armor, ultra-violent ancestors & Brand Age++
- How I think
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #563: The Citrini craze; human cognition; the most aggressive AI regulation; OpenAI spikes; COBOL returns; bye‑bye tax filing++
February 2026
- Behind the scenes of my AI agent
- 🔮 Where the human ends and AI begins
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #562: Agents & the tedium frontier; AI in the statistics; robot insurance; Claude at war, hacking pigeons, AI dignosis++
- 🫵 You already have an AI agent.
- Are we in charge of our AI tools, or are they in charge of us?
- 🔮 Entering the trillion-agent economy
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #561: Token scaling; frontier revenues; Spotify engineers; century bonds, T-cells vs Alzheimer’s & glass replaces silicon++
- 🎯 Magnitudes of intelligence
- 🔮 Building with agents
- 🔮 X-raying OpenAI’s unit economics
- 🔮 Everyone’s looking for a bubble. No one sees the stampede.
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #560: The $1 trillion panic; my favorite AI analysis tool; intention economy, CAR-T therapy & time++
- Do AI models actually make enough money to cover their costs? Live with Epoch AI
- Mustafa Suleyman – AI is hacking our empathy circuits
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #559: coherent agents; goodbye SaaS; orchestrators needed; space phages, immortality & Kimi's true identity++
January 2026
- 🔮 Moltbook is the most important place on the internet right now
- 🔮 Davos 2026 and the end of the rules-based order
- How “95%” escaped into the world – and why so many believed it
- 👀 Inside OpenAI's unit economics
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #558: Davos & reinventing the world; OpenAI's funk; markets love safety; books are cool, robots & AI Squid Game++
- 🔮 The end of the fictions
- 🔮 Live from Davos: Musk special
- 🔮 Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & future experts
- 🔮 Live from Davos: waiting for Trump
- 🔮 Live with Eric Schmidt from Davos
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #557: Starlink, Iran & abundance; AI’s exploration deficit; AGI vibes, aliens, Merge Labs & regulating companions++
- 🔮 The new moat in 2026
- 🔮 Anthropic's Head of Economics Peter McCrory on their new Economic Index
- 📈 Data to start your week
- 🔮 Exponential View #556: When execution gets cheap. Capital gains, labor pains. AI buys the grid. CRASH clock, taming complexity & new zones of influence++ ++
- 🔮 The work after work
- The year ahead
- 📈 Data to start your week
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