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Fabricated Knowledge

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Tech news / industryCPU / microarchitectureAI / MLSociety / politics / economy

Posts
288 from 23 Nov 2019 to 13 Aug 2026
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monthly (10 in the last year)
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personal blog
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2026 8

  1. The Cost of Time and AI Timelines
  2. Close but Not Quite
  3. IN-DEPTH: What Unitree's Evolution Means For Robotics
  4. Nvidia should buyback stock
  5. Engels' Pause and the Permanent Underclass
  6. Another Conversation with Val Bercovici Memory Markets
  7. The Death of Software 2.0 (A Better Analogy!)
  8. 2026 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

2025 39

  1. Lessons from History: The Great Railroad Buildout
  2. Market Volatility: Some Thoughts
  3. Earnings Recap So Far (And Ideas)
  4. Will Eatherton: How Cisco Plans to Compete in the AI Datacenter
  5. Where We Go From Here
  6. Oracle and Animal Spirits
  7. Lagging Edge will have a Permanent Glut
  8. Foundry Idea(s)
  9. Intel's One True Stakeholder is Here
  10. Earnings: Hyperscalers, AMD, ALAB, ANET
  11. Earnings: TSMC, NXPI, AEHR, GOOG, TXN, VAT, VICR
  12. Software Follow Up
  13. AI is Creating Peak Software, Media is the Best Analogy
  14. A Conversation with Val Bercovici about Disaggregated Prefill / Decode
  15. Renesas's Wolfspeed Bath and Micron Earnings
  16. Semicap Stock Idea
  17. Applied Digital, Defense Semiconductors, and 1998
  18. NVLink Fusion: Embrace, Extend, Extinguish
  19. China's Race to The Bottom: Margin Zero
  20. Earnings: AMD, CDW, STRL, ONTO, WOLF, MCHP, SITM
  21. Earnings: FIX, Advantest, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, MPWR, TOLEY, TER, QRVO
  22. The Three Tariff Problem
  23. Earnings: INTC, STM, TXN, VRT, LRCX and More
  24. Where is the Tariff Pull Forward?
  25. MRVL-IFX Deal and Intel Silver Lake Deal
  26. After the Fallout: Yields Spiral
  27. Liberation Day and The New World Order
  28. CoreWeave IPO, Wolfspeed Reorg, and Alphawave Bid
  29. GTC, Micron and Cyclicals
  30. Cycles Update: AI Waning and Auto Waxing
  31. Recessions and Semiconductors
  32. Design Win and Incentives
  33. Earnings: Optics(COHR, FN, LITE), Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, ENTG
  34. Vibe Check: Google and Amazon. Earnings: IoT(SMTC, NOD, SLAB,PI), RMBS, AMD
  35. Vibe Check: MSFT & META Earnings: LRCX, MXL, WOLF, ASML, CLS, STM, ALGM, INTC
  36. DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?
  37. TSM - It's Good to Be the King: 1 Trillion Incoming
  38. Capital Cycles and AI
  39. 2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

2024 57

  1. Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating
  2. The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail
  3. Happy Thanksgiving Semicap & Semiconductors
  4. NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question
  5. Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR
  6. The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2
  7. Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC
  8. Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI
  9. Idea in Smartphones
  10. Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom
  11. Nuclear Zeitgeist Part 1: A Reactor Primer
  12. The Cerebras IPO Stucture Sucks
  13. Micron and WFE
  14. Lattice Semiconductor
  15. ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory
  16. Hotchips Conference Sparknotes
  17. Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)
  18. Intel Missed the Party, while AMD's ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game
  19. Earnings: ALGM, LRCX, TOLEY, NVMI, ONTO
  20. Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD
  21. MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS
  22. The ROI of AI (It's a Dollar Auction)
  23. Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT
  24. Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions
  25. Automotive: Rev Your Engines
  26. An Interview with Wes Cummins, CEO of Applied Digital
  27. Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review
  28. Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale
  29. Crypto Datacenters NAV
  30. Marvell Earnings
  31. The Internet as You Know It Is Dying
  32. An Interview with Dan Kim and Hassan Khan of the CHIPS Program Office
  33. Nvidia Earnings Overview: Networking in Focus
  34. Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime
  35. Optics Earnings (FN, ANET, COHR, LITE, AAOI)
  36. Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)
  37. AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs
  38. Earnings Week of April 26th
  39. Hitting the Brakes: Automotive Semiconductors
  40. TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings
  41. Beaten Down Semiconductor Could be AI Play
  42. The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling
  43. Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review
  44. Micron's Earnings and Broadcom's Accelerators
  45. Jensen's World: Compressing Reality
  46. Factors and Semiconductors
  47. Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory
  48. Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia's Goldilocks Quarter
  49. Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)
  50. WTF is going on at SuperMicro? (SMCI)
  51. Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM
  52. KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP
  53. Intel 18A is in Sight, Does it Matter?
  54. TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX
  55. AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?
  56. Mobileye Guides Down; Automotive Inventory, Memory Strength, and Marvell
  57. Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

2023 64

  1. Why Subsystems Now
  2. Marvell Industry Analyst Day
  3. Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators
  4. OpenAI Boardroom Battle: Safety First
  5. Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs
  6. Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM, ACLS, MCHP)
  7. SiC as a Dog (Part 2)
  8. Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)
  9. Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)
  10. October Restrictions Implications
  11. Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble
  12. October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel's PSG Spin
  13. An Update with Rajesh Vashist of SiTime
  14. Chinese Semiconductor Beneficiary
  15. Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs
  16. ARM IPO Breakdown
  17. Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel
  18. Nvidia: Better than Dreamed
  19. Earnings: MCHP and IFX, SIMO Rumors, SMCI, POWI, GFS, COHR, WOLF, AMAT, CSCO
  20. Chinese EV's and the Lagging Edge Price War
  21. Earnings: Intel, AMD, ANET, ON, RMBS, SITM, QCOM, QRVO
  22. Maxlinear and Silicon Motion, Vicor and Monolithic Power and New Product Launches
  23. Auto Semiconductor Earnings (STM, NXPI, MBLY, TXN), Testing (Advantest and TER), Semicap (LRCX, ASM, BESI and KLAC)
  24. Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers
  25. Alphawave, TSMC and Lam Research Follow-up, DISCO and Lasertec
  26. TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)
  27. Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning
  28. Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market
  29. An Interview with Tony Pialis, CEO and Founder of Alphawave
  30. Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and Vicor
  31. Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So
  32. VLSI Japan: It’s Better on the Backside
  33. Is this the Intel Inflection?
  34. The Coming Wave of AI, and How Nvidia Dominates
  35. Nvidia's Historic Earnings, Jensen is the King of AI
  36. Earnings: ENTG, GFS, Alchip, CAMT, Sumco and WAF, AMAT and Tokyo Electron
  37. Alphawave's Filings Mishaps
  38. Mobile Phones (AAPL, QCOM, QRVO, MediaTek, SWKS), POWI, MCHP, ONTO, and SITM
  39. Automotive Semiconductors (STM, WOLF, MBLY, ON), Intel and AMD, and RMBS
  40. JNPR, SLAB, TXN, SK Hynix and Samsung, BESI, KLAC, MXL, ASMI,
  41. ASML, Lam Research, STX, Nordic Semi, and SMCI
  42. TSMC Earnings, CDW says IT Spending is Weak, and Further Networking Weakness
  43. Samsung Cuts Capacity and TSMC Monthly Revenue
  44. AI Foundations Part 1: Transformers, Pre-Training and Fine-Tuning, and Scaling
  45. The Optics Aren't Good
  46. Micron's Earnings, Intel's DCAI Day, AEHR, and Semiconductor Stocks
  47. Infinera Bid, Silicon Lab's Convertible, SIMO, and Nvidia GTC
  48. Moore's Law Changed Our Lives Forever: Rest in Peace Gordon Moore
  49. SiTime and Apple's Modem, Inventory Depletion, and Silicon Valley Bank Exposure, ASMPT Buyout
  50. Linear Drive: Potentially Huge Share Shifts in the Transceiver Market
  51. Ride the Wave: Alphawave
  52. SiC as a Dog: Tesla Investor Day
  53. Ready for Takeoff: Macau Casinos, Travel Retail, and Widebody Planes
  54. Intel's Dividend Cut, Nvidia's Earnings, and Besi
  55. From Draw Down to Bounce Back: A Guide to the Q1 Inventory Bottom
  56. Earnings Roundup: Applied Materials, ICHR, Renesas, Tokyo Electron, ACLS, ONTO, GFS, ENTG
  57. An Interview with Rajesh Vashist, CEO of SiTime
  58. Earnings Overview: QCOM, SWKS, MediaTek, MXL, KLIC, MCHP, ON, POWI, RMBS, AOSL and Nordic Semi
  59. Earnings Overview: AMD, Memory Woes (Samsung, SK Hynix, WDC) NXPI, SLAB, QRVO, SITM
  60. Earnings Overview: ASML, TXN, LRCX, STX, WOLF, STM, KLAC
  61. Intel is the Antithesis of "Smart Capital"
  62. Executive Transitions (AMD & TXN), UMC Earnings, and SMCI
  63. TSMC Earnings, UCTT & ICHR Pre-Announce, and Channel Inventory Thoughts
  64. Data Center Woes and China's Vibe Shift

2022 62

  1. Semiconductor Outlook 2023: Green Shoots
  2. The Old Testament: Q1 2023 Micron Earnings
  3. Marvell Industry Analyst Day
  4. IEDM: DTCO & More than Moore
  5. Trend Watch - Edition #1
  6. AMAT, KLIC, ADI, and ASML Investor Day
  7. AMD's Genoa, Buffett Buys TSMC, Micron's Further Adjustments, Nvidia, and Lam's Acquisition
  8. Is Q1 the Bottom? Examining Troughs (Revised for Error)
  9. China's Revenge: The Tower Semiconductor Deal is in a Tough Place
  10. Earnings: Wolfspeed Analyst day, INTC, SITM, RMBS, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, AMD, LSCC, CRUS, and More
  11. Hyper Scalers and Energy Costs
  12. Cadence, SK Hynix, MaxLinear, Teradyne and KLA
  13. ASML and Export Restrictions, Lam Research, and BESI
  14. Mobileye S-1 Teardown
  15. US Export Restrictions, Intel Layoffs, Applied Materials, and TSMC
  16. It's High Time to look at SiTime
  17. Micron Earnings, China Weakening, ASML's CTO, and Apple Order Cuts
  18. What Time is It? A Timing Market Primer and Overview
  19. Are We in 1995? Rich Templeton's of Texas Instruments Thinks So
  20. China and End Market Comp Sheet
  21. Nvidia, IIVI, Marvell, and STX
  22. Wolfspeed, IIVI and Marvell, Applied Materials
  23. Micron's Guide and Global Foundries Investor Day and other Earnings (AOSL, ICHR, ONTO, POWI, 8035, HIMX)
  24. Industry Structure: Fabs are in Favor - LTAs are the Tell
  25. Nvidia's Pre-Announce and Earnings Overview (QRVO, AMD, SITM, MCHP, ENTG, KLIC)
  26. Earnings (LRCX, TER, FORM, KLAC, ON, STM, NXPI, RMBS)
  27. Intel - They are Who We Thought They Were (Share Donors)
  28. Earnings (TSMC, ASML, STX, BESI)
  29. Lessons from History: The 1990s Semiconductor Cycle(s)
  30. CXL: Protocol for Heterogenous Datacenters
  31. Micron Earnings: Demand Guide Down
  32. Activist at WDC, and KLAC's Long Term Model at Investor Day
  33. GPU Gluts, Estimate Cuts Coming, and AMD Valuation
  34. Backside Power Delivery and Bold Bets at Intel
  35. The Golden Screw: Inventory, Orders and Semiconductors
  36. Nvidia's Crypto Issues, Cisco's Supply Chain issues
  37. Micron and STMicroelectronics Investor Day
  38. Microchip, Siltronic & Sumco, Infineon, Ichor Holdings, Global Foundries, and TSMC Monthly Revenue Results
  39. On Semi, AMD, KLIC, Rambus and More!
  40. Entegris, Teradyne, KLAC, Intel, MaxLinear, Texas Instruments, and Much More!
  41. ASML, Lam Research, ASM International and ASM Pacific
  42. TSMC Earnings - Boring Execution, VAT Group has an Air Gap in Orders
  43. Earnings Preview: Cross Currents
  44. NVLink/Switch and Platform Wars, Micron and Datacenter
  45. Chinese OSATs: Some Concerns
  46. Lessons from History: The 1980s Semiconductor Cycle(s)
  47. Weekly Update 3/15/2022
  48. Ethereum 2.0 and GPUs & TSMC Monthly Revenue
  49. Metrology Primer
  50. Intel's Investor Day - Nothing New
  51. Quick Earnings Round Up 2/18/2022
  52. Tower Semi Buyout Tips Intel's Hand
  53. Earnings Roundup: 2/11/2022
  54. A Pure Play on Datacenter Memory and CXL
  55. Earnings Roundup Week of 2/4/2022: Part 2
  56. Earnings Roundup for the Week of 1/31 - Part 1
  57. Earnings: Texas Instruments, KLA, Lam Research and More
  58. Semiconductors and Markets
  59. How France's Largest Semiconductor Company Got Nationalized in Plain Sight
  60. TSMC Earnings - The Handoff from Mobile to HPC
  61. TSMC and ASE December Results, ASML Fires, and Semicap Estimates Are Too Low
  62. In the Middle of Transition: 2022 Semiconductor Outlook

2021 33

  1. 2022 Semiconductor Webinar (and Outlook)
  2. Intel's Mobileye Stub and Positioning
  3. Semicon West Sparknotes
  4. Semicon West and Price Raise Notice
  5. Teradyne, Backlogs, and Barriers to Entry
  6. The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Cost
  7. ON, NXPI, AlChip, ONTO, and NVMI
  8. Facebook's Spending Spree, Semicap Supply Issues, and Earnings
  9. Intel’s Turnaround Plan, Lam Research, ASML, and Soitec
  10. Earnings Roundup: TSMC, Nanya, and VAT Group
  11. Marvell, Infineon and Other News
  12. Global Foundries S-1 Breakdown
  13. R2: What it Means to be 1 Less Than S3
  14. Micron and Memory Woes, ASML and the Bright Decade Ahead
  15. Reflections on the Continental Divide Trail
  16. Intel's Foundry Ambitions and Updating the WFE Playbook
  17. Housekeeping: Substack Pause & Hiatus
  18. Automotive Semiconductors: STM and NXP
  19. Automotive Semiconductors: EVs and Silicon Carbide
  20. February Semiconductor Monthly Roundup
  21. Applied Materials, Nvidia, and Other News
  22. The Digital Transformation of Cars is Just Beginning
  23. Earnings Week of 2/12
  24. Update on AMKR
  25. Earnings Coverage Part 2 for 2/5
  26. Earnings Coverage Part 1 for 2/5
  27. January Semiconductor Monthly Roundup
  28. Earnings Bonanza
  29. 2021 WFE Playbook
  30. ASML-Intel-Qualcomm News
  31. TSMC Earnings
  32. Fabless Intel, Automotive Crunch, and Capital Spending Plans
  33. Packaging Stocks Follow-up: TER/6857/COHU/FORM & NVMI/CAMT/ONTO

2020 24

  1. December Semiconductor Quarterly Roundup
  2. Microsoft's Going Vertical, China’s Growing Pains, and Demand Signals Everywhere
  3. Semiconductor Outlook in 2021: It's Shaping Up to Be a Good Time
  4. Semicap Primer: Packaging History and Primer
  5. [Special Situation Idea] Long-Term Tailwinds with a Near-Term Catalyst
  6. AWS's Trainium, AMD's Black Friday, Micron's Guide, and Intel's Void
  7. November Monthly Review
  8. Introducing Semiconductor Comps and Ranker!
  9. The Tech Monopolies Go Vertical
  10. Semi cap Primer Series: Lithography and ASML
  11. Semiconductor Capital Equipment Series: Introduction
  12. Inphi Follow-up: The Game's On
  13. AMD and Xilinx Tie the Knot
  14. Intel's Troubles and Lam Research's Cautious Optimism
  15. At the Heart of the Datacenter: 400ZR, PAM4, and Networking
  16. Cadence's China Quarter, Intel Divesting NAND, and Other Blurbs
  17. Semiconductor Earnings Blurbs for the Week of 10/16/2020
  18. GPT-3 and the Writing on the Wall
  19. A Quick Followup for "Quantifying the Adpocalypse"
  20. Quantifying the Adpocalypse
  21. Heterogeneous Compute: The Paradigm Shift No One is Talking About
  22. Fame and Fortune, Leading and Lagging Indicators in the Digital Age
  23. Better Framing S-Curves
  24. Dark Horse Discord

2019 1

  1. Semicap, adtech, trends, the internet and everything in between