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- Posts
- 288 from 23 Nov 2019 to 13 Aug 2026
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- monthly (10 in the last year)
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- personal blog
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2026 8
- The Cost of Time and AI Timelines
- Close but Not Quite
- IN-DEPTH: What Unitree's Evolution Means For Robotics
- Nvidia should buyback stock
- Engels' Pause and the Permanent Underclass
- Another Conversation with Val Bercovici Memory Markets
- The Death of Software 2.0 (A Better Analogy!)
- 2026 AI & Semiconductor Outlook
2025 39
- Lessons from History: The Great Railroad Buildout
- Market Volatility: Some Thoughts
- Earnings Recap So Far (And Ideas)
- Will Eatherton: How Cisco Plans to Compete in the AI Datacenter
- Where We Go From Here
- Oracle and Animal Spirits
- Lagging Edge will have a Permanent Glut
- Foundry Idea(s)
- Intel's One True Stakeholder is Here
- Earnings: Hyperscalers, AMD, ALAB, ANET
- Earnings: TSMC, NXPI, AEHR, GOOG, TXN, VAT, VICR
- Software Follow Up
- AI is Creating Peak Software, Media is the Best Analogy
- A Conversation with Val Bercovici about Disaggregated Prefill / Decode
- Renesas's Wolfspeed Bath and Micron Earnings
- Semicap Stock Idea
- Applied Digital, Defense Semiconductors, and 1998
- NVLink Fusion: Embrace, Extend, Extinguish
- China's Race to The Bottom: Margin Zero
- Earnings: AMD, CDW, STRL, ONTO, WOLF, MCHP, SITM
- Earnings: FIX, Advantest, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, MPWR, TOLEY, TER, QRVO
- The Three Tariff Problem
- Earnings: INTC, STM, TXN, VRT, LRCX and More
- Where is the Tariff Pull Forward?
- MRVL-IFX Deal and Intel Silver Lake Deal
- After the Fallout: Yields Spiral
- Liberation Day and The New World Order
- CoreWeave IPO, Wolfspeed Reorg, and Alphawave Bid
- GTC, Micron and Cyclicals
- Cycles Update: AI Waning and Auto Waxing
- Recessions and Semiconductors
- Design Win and Incentives
- Earnings: Optics(COHR, FN, LITE), Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, ENTG
- Vibe Check: Google and Amazon. Earnings: IoT(SMTC, NOD, SLAB,PI), RMBS, AMD
- Vibe Check: MSFT & META Earnings: LRCX, MXL, WOLF, ASML, CLS, STM, ALGM, INTC
- DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?
- TSM - It's Good to Be the King: 1 Trillion Incoming
- Capital Cycles and AI
- 2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook
2024 57
- Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating
- The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail
- Happy Thanksgiving Semicap & Semiconductors
- NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question
- Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR
- The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2
- Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC
- Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI
- Idea in Smartphones
- Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom
- Nuclear Zeitgeist Part 1: A Reactor Primer
- The Cerebras IPO Stucture Sucks
- Micron and WFE
- Lattice Semiconductor
- ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory
- Hotchips Conference Sparknotes
- Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)
- Intel Missed the Party, while AMD's ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game
- Earnings: ALGM, LRCX, TOLEY, NVMI, ONTO
- Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD
- MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS
- The ROI of AI (It's a Dollar Auction)
- Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT
- Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions
- Automotive: Rev Your Engines
- An Interview with Wes Cummins, CEO of Applied Digital
- Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review
- Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale
- Crypto Datacenters NAV
- Marvell Earnings
- The Internet as You Know It Is Dying
- An Interview with Dan Kim and Hassan Khan of the CHIPS Program Office
- Nvidia Earnings Overview: Networking in Focus
- Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime
- Optics Earnings (FN, ANET, COHR, LITE, AAOI)
- Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)
- AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs
- Earnings Week of April 26th
- Hitting the Brakes: Automotive Semiconductors
- TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings
- Beaten Down Semiconductor Could be AI Play
- The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling
- Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review
- Micron's Earnings and Broadcom's Accelerators
- Jensen's World: Compressing Reality
- Factors and Semiconductors
- Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory
- Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia's Goldilocks Quarter
- Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)
- WTF is going on at SuperMicro? (SMCI)
- Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM
- KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP
- Intel 18A is in Sight, Does it Matter?
- TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX
- AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?
- Mobileye Guides Down; Automotive Inventory, Memory Strength, and Marvell
- Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence
2023 64
- Why Subsystems Now
- Marvell Industry Analyst Day
- Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators
- OpenAI Boardroom Battle: Safety First
- Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs
- Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM, ACLS, MCHP)
- SiC as a Dog (Part 2)
- Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)
- Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)
- October Restrictions Implications
- Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble
- October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel's PSG Spin
- An Update with Rajesh Vashist of SiTime
- Chinese Semiconductor Beneficiary
- Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs
- ARM IPO Breakdown
- Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel
- Nvidia: Better than Dreamed
- Earnings: MCHP and IFX, SIMO Rumors, SMCI, POWI, GFS, COHR, WOLF, AMAT, CSCO
- Chinese EV's and the Lagging Edge Price War
- Earnings: Intel, AMD, ANET, ON, RMBS, SITM, QCOM, QRVO
- Maxlinear and Silicon Motion, Vicor and Monolithic Power and New Product Launches
- Auto Semiconductor Earnings (STM, NXPI, MBLY, TXN), Testing (Advantest and TER), Semicap (LRCX, ASM, BESI and KLAC)
- Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers
- Alphawave, TSMC and Lam Research Follow-up, DISCO and Lasertec
- TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)
- Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning
- Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market
- An Interview with Tony Pialis, CEO and Founder of Alphawave
- Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and Vicor
- Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So
- VLSI Japan: It’s Better on the Backside
- Is this the Intel Inflection?
- The Coming Wave of AI, and How Nvidia Dominates
- Nvidia's Historic Earnings, Jensen is the King of AI
- Earnings: ENTG, GFS, Alchip, CAMT, Sumco and WAF, AMAT and Tokyo Electron
- Alphawave's Filings Mishaps
- Mobile Phones (AAPL, QCOM, QRVO, MediaTek, SWKS), POWI, MCHP, ONTO, and SITM
- Automotive Semiconductors (STM, WOLF, MBLY, ON), Intel and AMD, and RMBS
- JNPR, SLAB, TXN, SK Hynix and Samsung, BESI, KLAC, MXL, ASMI,
- ASML, Lam Research, STX, Nordic Semi, and SMCI
- TSMC Earnings, CDW says IT Spending is Weak, and Further Networking Weakness
- Samsung Cuts Capacity and TSMC Monthly Revenue
- AI Foundations Part 1: Transformers, Pre-Training and Fine-Tuning, and Scaling
- The Optics Aren't Good
- Micron's Earnings, Intel's DCAI Day, AEHR, and Semiconductor Stocks
- Infinera Bid, Silicon Lab's Convertible, SIMO, and Nvidia GTC
- Moore's Law Changed Our Lives Forever: Rest in Peace Gordon Moore
- SiTime and Apple's Modem, Inventory Depletion, and Silicon Valley Bank Exposure, ASMPT Buyout
- Linear Drive: Potentially Huge Share Shifts in the Transceiver Market
- Ride the Wave: Alphawave
- SiC as a Dog: Tesla Investor Day
- Ready for Takeoff: Macau Casinos, Travel Retail, and Widebody Planes
- Intel's Dividend Cut, Nvidia's Earnings, and Besi
- From Draw Down to Bounce Back: A Guide to the Q1 Inventory Bottom
- Earnings Roundup: Applied Materials, ICHR, Renesas, Tokyo Electron, ACLS, ONTO, GFS, ENTG
- An Interview with Rajesh Vashist, CEO of SiTime
- Earnings Overview: QCOM, SWKS, MediaTek, MXL, KLIC, MCHP, ON, POWI, RMBS, AOSL and Nordic Semi
- Earnings Overview: AMD, Memory Woes (Samsung, SK Hynix, WDC) NXPI, SLAB, QRVO, SITM
- Earnings Overview: ASML, TXN, LRCX, STX, WOLF, STM, KLAC
- Intel is the Antithesis of "Smart Capital"
- Executive Transitions (AMD & TXN), UMC Earnings, and SMCI
- TSMC Earnings, UCTT & ICHR Pre-Announce, and Channel Inventory Thoughts
- Data Center Woes and China's Vibe Shift
2022 62
- Semiconductor Outlook 2023: Green Shoots
- The Old Testament: Q1 2023 Micron Earnings
- Marvell Industry Analyst Day
- IEDM: DTCO & More than Moore
- Trend Watch - Edition #1
- AMAT, KLIC, ADI, and ASML Investor Day
- AMD's Genoa, Buffett Buys TSMC, Micron's Further Adjustments, Nvidia, and Lam's Acquisition
- Is Q1 the Bottom? Examining Troughs (Revised for Error)
- China's Revenge: The Tower Semiconductor Deal is in a Tough Place
- Earnings: Wolfspeed Analyst day, INTC, SITM, RMBS, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, AMD, LSCC, CRUS, and More
- Hyper Scalers and Energy Costs
- Cadence, SK Hynix, MaxLinear, Teradyne and KLA
- ASML and Export Restrictions, Lam Research, and BESI
- Mobileye S-1 Teardown
- US Export Restrictions, Intel Layoffs, Applied Materials, and TSMC
- It's High Time to look at SiTime
- Micron Earnings, China Weakening, ASML's CTO, and Apple Order Cuts
- What Time is It? A Timing Market Primer and Overview
- Are We in 1995? Rich Templeton's of Texas Instruments Thinks So
- China and End Market Comp Sheet
- Nvidia, IIVI, Marvell, and STX
- Wolfspeed, IIVI and Marvell, Applied Materials
- Micron's Guide and Global Foundries Investor Day and other Earnings (AOSL, ICHR, ONTO, POWI, 8035, HIMX)
- Industry Structure: Fabs are in Favor - LTAs are the Tell
- Nvidia's Pre-Announce and Earnings Overview (QRVO, AMD, SITM, MCHP, ENTG, KLIC)
- Earnings (LRCX, TER, FORM, KLAC, ON, STM, NXPI, RMBS)
- Intel - They are Who We Thought They Were (Share Donors)
- Earnings (TSMC, ASML, STX, BESI)
- Lessons from History: The 1990s Semiconductor Cycle(s)
- CXL: Protocol for Heterogenous Datacenters
- Micron Earnings: Demand Guide Down
- Activist at WDC, and KLAC's Long Term Model at Investor Day
- GPU Gluts, Estimate Cuts Coming, and AMD Valuation
- Backside Power Delivery and Bold Bets at Intel
- The Golden Screw: Inventory, Orders and Semiconductors
- Nvidia's Crypto Issues, Cisco's Supply Chain issues
- Micron and STMicroelectronics Investor Day
- Microchip, Siltronic & Sumco, Infineon, Ichor Holdings, Global Foundries, and TSMC Monthly Revenue Results
- On Semi, AMD, KLIC, Rambus and More!
- Entegris, Teradyne, KLAC, Intel, MaxLinear, Texas Instruments, and Much More!
- ASML, Lam Research, ASM International and ASM Pacific
- TSMC Earnings - Boring Execution, VAT Group has an Air Gap in Orders
- Earnings Preview: Cross Currents
- NVLink/Switch and Platform Wars, Micron and Datacenter
- Chinese OSATs: Some Concerns
- Lessons from History: The 1980s Semiconductor Cycle(s)
- Weekly Update 3/15/2022
- Ethereum 2.0 and GPUs & TSMC Monthly Revenue
- Metrology Primer
- Intel's Investor Day - Nothing New
- Quick Earnings Round Up 2/18/2022
- Tower Semi Buyout Tips Intel's Hand
- Earnings Roundup: 2/11/2022
- A Pure Play on Datacenter Memory and CXL
- Earnings Roundup Week of 2/4/2022: Part 2
- Earnings Roundup for the Week of 1/31 - Part 1
- Earnings: Texas Instruments, KLA, Lam Research and More
- Semiconductors and Markets
- How France's Largest Semiconductor Company Got Nationalized in Plain Sight
- TSMC Earnings - The Handoff from Mobile to HPC
- TSMC and ASE December Results, ASML Fires, and Semicap Estimates Are Too Low
- In the Middle of Transition: 2022 Semiconductor Outlook
2021 33
- 2022 Semiconductor Webinar (and Outlook)
- Intel's Mobileye Stub and Positioning
- Semicon West Sparknotes
- Semicon West and Price Raise Notice
- Teradyne, Backlogs, and Barriers to Entry
- The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Cost
- ON, NXPI, AlChip, ONTO, and NVMI
- Facebook's Spending Spree, Semicap Supply Issues, and Earnings
- Intel’s Turnaround Plan, Lam Research, ASML, and Soitec
- Earnings Roundup: TSMC, Nanya, and VAT Group
- Marvell, Infineon and Other News
- Global Foundries S-1 Breakdown
- R2: What it Means to be 1 Less Than S3
- Micron and Memory Woes, ASML and the Bright Decade Ahead
- Reflections on the Continental Divide Trail
- Intel's Foundry Ambitions and Updating the WFE Playbook
- Housekeeping: Substack Pause & Hiatus
- Automotive Semiconductors: STM and NXP
- Automotive Semiconductors: EVs and Silicon Carbide
- February Semiconductor Monthly Roundup
- Applied Materials, Nvidia, and Other News
- The Digital Transformation of Cars is Just Beginning
- Earnings Week of 2/12
- Update on AMKR
- Earnings Coverage Part 2 for 2/5
- Earnings Coverage Part 1 for 2/5
- January Semiconductor Monthly Roundup
- Earnings Bonanza
- 2021 WFE Playbook
- ASML-Intel-Qualcomm News
- TSMC Earnings
- Fabless Intel, Automotive Crunch, and Capital Spending Plans
- Packaging Stocks Follow-up: TER/6857/COHU/FORM & NVMI/CAMT/ONTO
2020 24
- December Semiconductor Quarterly Roundup
- Microsoft's Going Vertical, China’s Growing Pains, and Demand Signals Everywhere
- Semiconductor Outlook in 2021: It's Shaping Up to Be a Good Time
- Semicap Primer: Packaging History and Primer
- [Special Situation Idea] Long-Term Tailwinds with a Near-Term Catalyst
- AWS's Trainium, AMD's Black Friday, Micron's Guide, and Intel's Void
- November Monthly Review
- Introducing Semiconductor Comps and Ranker!
- The Tech Monopolies Go Vertical
- Semi cap Primer Series: Lithography and ASML
- Semiconductor Capital Equipment Series: Introduction
- Inphi Follow-up: The Game's On
- AMD and Xilinx Tie the Knot
- Intel's Troubles and Lam Research's Cautious Optimism
- At the Heart of the Datacenter: 400ZR, PAM4, and Networking
- Cadence's China Quarter, Intel Divesting NAND, and Other Blurbs
- Semiconductor Earnings Blurbs for the Week of 10/16/2020
- GPT-3 and the Writing on the Wall
- A Quick Followup for "Quantifying the Adpocalypse"
- Quantifying the Adpocalypse
- Heterogeneous Compute: The Paradigm Shift No One is Talking About
- Fame and Fortune, Leading and Lagging Indicators in the Digital Age
- Better Framing S-Curves
- Dark Horse Discord