The AI Frontier
Lessons from building an AI product at RunLLM and the latest AI research at Cal. Click to read The AI Frontier, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
- Posts
- 142 from 16 Aug 2023 to 3 Sep 2026
- Posting
- weekly (36 in the last year)
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- personal blog
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2026 30
- LLMs are becoming commodities
- Model inference, model products, and AI applications
- The SaaS Extinction Test
- Can you know if coding agents are worth the cost?
- Data is your only moat
- Open models don't need to be OpenAI
- AI changed distribution. Can you keep up?
- Budgeting for AI isn't hard
- AI is not a line item
- If you don’t know what good is, AI won’t tell you
- Enterprise AI's teenage years
- Product-market fit is a trap
- AI applications have two growth curves
- The Inference Economy: Token Use
- Agents can't choose between structure and flexibility
- Build agents for humans
- Agents can't check their own work
- AI agents shouldn't have a job title
- AI Companies Are Building for the Wrong Users
- Generic enterprise AI is indefensible
- The SaaS Extinction Test
- The zero-shot trap
- SAT Scores vs. On-the-Job Performance
- The case for wasteful agents
- Cursor's Unfair UX Advantage
- How to build a data moat
- What Moltbot tells us about the ideal UX for AI
- The specialization moat
- Data is your only moat
- The business of AI in 2026
2025 50
- Looking back on AI in 2025
- Maybe AI is a regular platform shift
- The rise of AI forward deployed engineers
- The 9-9-6 Trap
- The Inference Economy: Part II
- The Inference Economy
- Build opinionated agents
- Agents, knowledge debt, and asynchronous work
- Depth over breadth
- OpenAI is a consumer company
- You can't build a moat with AI
- A theory of the AI market
- Looking ahead in AI
- Lessons learned from a 100 blog posts on AI
- AI Artists vs. AI Engineers
- Model inference, model products, and AI applications
- Do you have too many AI products?
- Slack is the future of agentic work
- Does AI quality matter?
- Introducing RunLLM v2
- The new UX for AI is not what you think
- The AI Application Land Grab
- What happens when an AI is your customer?
- An AI Support Engineer for every open-source project
- Why hasn’t AI changed everything
- Will long context windows solve all your problems?
- A deep dive on search for AI applications
- LLMs on the Run
- What's an agent, anyway?
- Stop treating frontier models like products
- Design AI to fail
- Qwen 3 and doubling down on open-source AI
- AGI is already here
- Acquisitions, consolidation, and innovation in AI
- Your AI application needs a job
- Building AI applications you can trust
- Will OpenAI eat our lunch?
- AI is (still) all about data
- How to build an AI application that people trust
- What is an AI application?
- LLMs are too helpful
- The hard thing about building AI applications
- Introducing RunLLM: The first AI Support Engineer
- You can’t build a moat with AI (redux)
- So you want to buy your first AI product
- DeepSeek, o3, and AI applications
- AI is yet another platform shift
- One month of using Devin
- Chatbots are dead, long live chatbots!
- Predictions for AI in 2025
2024 45
- Looking back on AI in 2024
- Compound AI is AGI
- The end of scaling laws doesn't matter
- Your AI strategy is a waste of time
- AI lets you scalably do things that don't scale
- Can I talk to an AI, please?
- Compound AI, test-time compute, and wasting your users’ time
- Throw more AI at your problems
- A theory of the AI market
- Deep AI work
- Customers want more AI, not better AI
- Should AIs try to be human?
- AI companies should be AI-first
- AI workers will ignore your Slack messages too
- AI products should be built for human coworkers
- The rise of AI work
- The future of AI pricing
- Introducing the AI Frontier
- In defense of vibes-based evaluations
- There's no silver bullet in AI
- OpenAI is too cheap to beat (redux)
- Mid-2024 Predictions Review
- AI applications are more than an LLM
- The bull case for AI startups
- AI is breadth-first, not depth-first
- LLMs are becoming commodities
- AI news roundup: You see what you want to see
- How to build your first LLM evaluation
- Open LLMs don’t need to beat OpenAI
- AI must be more than a checkbox
- How to talk to someone who doesn't trust AI
- Lessons from customer evaluations of an AI product
- You can't build a moat with AI
- We need better LLM evaluations
- RunLLM: The custom assistant for developer tools
- Untangling concerns about consolidation in AI
- Don't build your application on a single LLM call
- Building on quicksand
- A tornado of AI news
- There's more to LLMs than chat
- LLMs are the variable interest credit card of tech debt
- An introduction to evaluating LLMs
- Prospecting in the AI Gold Rush
- Fine tuning is just synthetic data engineering
- 2024 AI Predictions
2023 17
- Rumors of startups’ deaths have been greatly exaggerated
- OpenAI will solve its privacy problems before you
- One LLM won't rule them all
- Why open-source LLMs matter
- MemGPT: Memory Management for LLMs
- OpenAI is too cheap to beat
- Open-source LLMs shouldn't try to win
- Gorilla: An LLM for Massive APIs
- LoRA, explained
- How our Test-of-Time Paper Almost Wasn’t
- RLHF and LLM evaluations
- How to Optimize Retrieval-Augmented Generation
- Should you fine-tune a model?
- The Easiest Part of LLM Applications is the LLM
- A deep dive on Llama Index
- Building your first LLM-powered application
- Welcome to Generating Conversation