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Erdmann Housing Tracker

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How housing costs got here and where they're going. Click to read Erdmann Housing Tracker, by Kevin Erdmann, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

Society / politics / economy

’22’23’24’25’26
Posts
675 from 30 Jul 2022 to 29 Oct 2026
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about daily (169 in the last year)
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2026 141

  1. ResiDay 2026
  2. September 2026 New Residential Sales
  3. Looking away from the mortgage crackdown
  4. Playing More with Household Data
  5. 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances
  6. September 2026 Residential Construction
  7. September 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  8. Upside-down CAPM, the AI boom, and interest rates
  9. Inferior housing is the most important housing.
  10. Even More on Filtering and 2008
  11. More on Filtering and 2008
  12. Follow-Up to Mortgage Rates and Housing
  13. Mortgage Rates and Housing
  14. Filtering is affordability is filtering
  15. Filtering is not a housing affordability strategy
  16. Employment trends and the business cycle
  17. August 2026 New Residential Sales
  18. Biases in Census housing measures
  19. More Thoughts on Housing and the Business Cycle
  20. August 2026 Residential Construction
  21. August 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker
  22. Future Housing Demand
  23. Quick review of 27 years of housing
  24. Rent Inflation and the Shortage
  25. Speculation on the business cycle
  26. Where to Invest in the Coming Building Boom
  27. Hovnanian 3Q 2026 Details
  28. The Intuition Chart
  29. Inflation, Housing, and Tariffs
  30. July 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  31. July 2026 Residential Home Sales
  32. Hovnanian 3Q 2026 Earnings
  33. Pew: “Mortgage Lending Standards Are Too Tight”
  34. Anecdotal Description of Supply Constrained Homebuilders
  35. July 2026 Residential Construction
  36. The federal debt problem is a consequence of the mortgage moral panic.
  37. Urban Institute looks at young adults at home.
  38. Dream Finders buys Beazer
  39. No, homes aren't more expensive because they are larger than they used to be.
  40. Mismeasuring the Affordability Problem
  41. In our odd era, yes, supply is what matters.
  42. Another estimate of the housing shortage
  43. June 2026 Residential Home Sales
  44. June 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  45. Homeowners-to-Population Ratio (HPOP)
  46. June 2026 Residential Construction
  47. Housing Cost Trends: 4 cities
  48. Cyclical Construction and Gluts
  49. The Keynes and Hayek Rap Battle, in Hindsight
  50. Home affordability math isn't mathing
  51. A brief review and forecast of supply-denialism
  52. Facets of the Housing Shortage, A Series: Part 6
  53. Housing needs supply-siders, again
  54. May 2026 New Home Sales
  55. C-Span Washington Journal
  56. May 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  57. 21st Century Housing in Three Atlanta Suburbs
  58. Realtor.com estimates of the housing shortage
  59. May 2026 Residential Construction
  60. Facets of the Housing Crisis, A Series: Part 5
  61. Facets of the Housing Crisis, A Series: Part 4
  62. Facets of the Housing Crisis, A Series: Part 3
  63. Facets of the Housing Crisis, A Series: Part 2
  64. Facets of the Housing Crisis, A Series: Part 1
  65. May 2026 Employment - The Would-Be Recession
  66. 5 Million Vacancies
  67. Housing needs supply-siders
  68. Build-to-Rent and Housing Supply & Demand
  69. April 2026 New Home Sales
  70. Property Taxes vs. Land Value Taxes
  71. Supply constraints, Austin, the Midwest, Etc.
  72. The Supply Constrained Housing Market
  73. Hovnanian 2Q 2026
  74. April 2026 Residential Construction
  75. April 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  76. Are first-time homebuyers older than they used to be?
  77. Property Taxes are Land Value Taxes
  78. Facets of the Housing Crisis
  79. Dream Finders & Beazer Homes
  80. March 2026 New Home Sales
  81. Podcast Interview with Peter Yoder
  82. Mortgages and the Supply of Safe Assets
  83. 20th Century vs. 21st Century Housing, Part 3
  84. 20th Century vs. 21st Century Housing, Part 2
  85. March 2026 Residential Construction
  86. 20th Century vs. 21st Century Housing, Part 1
  87. March 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  88. Revisiting Aggregate Demand in 2008
  89. Another Nevada Hallucination
  90. A Reality Check on Relative Home Prices
  91. The housing crisis is making young Americans poorer.
  92. Apartments in the Midwest
  93. No, builders don't pull back until rents inflate, Part 2
  94. No, builders don't pull back until rents inflate
  95. Hovnanian 1Q 2026 Details
  96. More on the supply of rental homes
  97. It's hard to measure the cost of the housing shortage.
  98. Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2025 Year in Review (October to December)
  99. Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2025 Year in Review (July to September)
  100. Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2025 Year in Review (April to June)
  101. Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2025 Year in Review (January to March)
  102. February 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  103. January 2026 Residential New Home Sales
  104. January 2026 Residential Construction
  105. The St. Louis Fed reminding me I can still be surprised
  106. More thoughts on the investor ban and on homebuilders
  107. Observations on the single-family rental debate re: the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.
  108. Follow Up to Multiple Binding Constraints Make Housing Analysis Hard
  109. Multiple Binding Constraints Make Housing Analysis Hard
  110. Labor Force Trends: Per-Adult vs. Per Capita
  111. Another cool paper and more notes on a bad paper on housing supply
  112. Hovnanian 1Q 2026 Earnings
  113. Home construction leading the almost recession recovery
  114. January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker
  115. December 2025 Residential Home Sales
  116. December 2025 Residential Construction
  117. A "Shortage" or "Crisis" versus Regular Scarcity: Part 2
  118. A "Shortage" or "Crisis" versus Regular Scarcity: Part 1
  119. Do you ever wonder? Podcast
  120. Federal YIMBYs?
  121. GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
  122. Cool Paper on the progressive effect of upzoning
  123. Podcast with UCLA Housing Voice - Again!
  124. Do Homebuilders have an inventory problem?
  125. Homebuilder Earnings
  126. Follow Up to Random Thoughts
  127. Random Thoughts on Mortgages, Household Finances, and Supply Conditions
  128. No. Fed stimulus doesn't hurt first-time homebuyers
  129. Hovnanian 2025 Details
  130. An article at the Hill
  131. Podcast with UCLA Housing Voice
  132. What will 2026 bring?
  133. December 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  134. October 2025 Residential Home Sales
  135. October 2025 Residential Construction
  136. Anti-corporate housing
  137. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 3
  138. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 2
  139. Have rents stopped rising?
  140. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 1
  141. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 6

2025 178

  1. C-Span Washington Journal
  2. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 5
  3. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 4
  4. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 3
  5. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 2
  6. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 1
  7. November 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker
  8. “We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”
  9. Quick note on housing and family formation
  10. Why homes are ‘filtering’ up the market from the poor to wealthier buyers
  11. Micro versus Macro thinking and affordability
  12. Are we underestimating who is poor?
  13. Risk of Ruin Podcast
  14. The current high value of residential investment
  15. Hovnanian 4Q 2025 Results
  16. Streamlining Housing Permitting in Arizona
  17. Notes on Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates: Part 2
  18. Is Canada Mending the Housing Market?
  19. Americans giving up on homeownership
  20. October 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  21. More ResiDay 2025
  22. Nevada SB391
  23. John Cochrane on Rent Control
  24. ResiDay 2025
  25. I'm afraid the economy isn't improving for everyone
  26. Credit Access at Fannie & Freddie
  27. Rent Inflation and Rent-Neutral Construction Pace
  28. What is the current neutral level of housing completions?
  29. What the Case-Shiller Home Price Chart Really Tells Us
  30. Agglomeration Value vs. Scarcity
  31. Notes on Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates
  32. Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates
  33. Metro Area Housing Analysis Packages: Part 6
  34. Metro Area Housing Analysis Packages: Part 5
  35. Metro Area Housing Analysis Packages: Part 4
  36. September 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  37. Metro Area Housing Analysis Packages: Part 3
  38. Metro Area Housing Analysis Packages: Part 2
  39. Metro Area Housing Analysis Packages: Part 1
  40. Residential Investment in the Would-Be Recession of 2024
  41. The New Business Cycle: The 2024 Recession
  42. Follow Up to "With prawns like these..."
  43. With prawns like these, who needs anemones?
  44. An update on a neighborhood and comments on rental investors
  45. Mortgage Affordability
  46. Notes on Mortgage Rates and Housing
  47. Anti-Investor Bills in 2025
  48. August 2025 Residential Home Sales
  49. What would the population of the Northeast be without zoning?
  50. Decent federal housing policy news
  51. August 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update & Inflation Trends
  52. August 2025 Residential Construction
  53. The New Business Cycle: Epilogue
  54. The New Business Cycle: Part 4
  55. The New Business Cycle: Part 3
  56. The new business cycle: Part 2
  57. The new business cycle: Part 1
  58. 2025 vs 2008
  59. The End of the American City
  60. Hovnanian 3Q 2025 Earnings, follow-up
  61. The Supply of Rental Homes
  62. July 2025 Residential Sales
  63. Fertility and Home Prices
  64. Hovnanian 3rd Quarter 2025 Earnings
  65. July 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation Update
  66. July 2025 Residential Construction
  67. Future Housing Consumption
  68. Another Funny Chart
  69. Sources of Rising Prices
  70. Conventional Wisdom, revisited
  71. How Much Do Supply & Demand Move Home Prices?
  72. Homebuilders & the new business cycle
  73. More Housing & the Business Cycle
  74. Thoughts on 21st Century Housing & the Business Cycle
  75. More housing supply shouldn't bring prices down.
  76. Revisiting One Last Funny Chart
  77. Long-Term Trends in Homes and Households
  78. More funny charts
  79. The Times They Are A'Tricky
  80. June 2025 Residential Home Sales
  81. Supply has to be ridiculously low to create our peculiar affordability problem.
  82. June 2025 Residential Construction
  83. June 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation Update
  84. July 2025 Homebuilder Thoughts
  85. No, everyone isn't going to move to New York City
  86. Another Step in my Mortgage Radicalization
  87. Slack and Capacity in Housing
  88. Follow Up: Market Segmentation in Housing
  89. Consulting
  90. Market Segmentation in Housing
  91. THE STATE OF THE NATION’S HOUSING 2025
  92. Green Shoots
  93. May 2025 Residential Home Sales
  94. Back of the envelope estimate of mortgage crackdown
  95. Follow Up to Legislating Mass Evictions
  96. May 2025 Residential Construction
  97. May 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker & Inflation Update
  98. Are we going to legislate mass evictions?
  99. High Debt-to-Income Ratios
  100. More on Glaeser and Gyourko's data
  101. The elephant in the room
  102. Indianapolis suburbs place new straw on camel's back
  103. Hovnanian 2Q 2025 Earnings Follow Up
  104. April 2025 Residential Home Sales
  105. Fannie & Freddie: Follow-Up
  106. Fannie and Freddie: It’s not about the rates
  107. A conversation about cities
  108. Hovnanian 2Q 2025 Earnings
  109. April 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation
  110. April 2025 Residential Construction
  111. Home prices never go down: Follow up.
  112. Home prices never go down.
  113. More on Our Trade Balance and International Investment
  114. Housing Starts Forecasts Over Time
  115. 1Q 2025 GDP and Housing
  116. The Homevoter Hypothesis
  117. Washington DC: scaling the NIMBY problem and the mortgage problem
  118. March 2025 New Home Sales
  119. 2025 Florida Housing Summit
  120. Upside Down CAPM and the trade deficit
  121. March 2025 Residential Construction and D.R. Horton Earnings
  122. Home and Land Prices, Part 3, and March 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  123. Home and Land Prices, Part 2
  124. Upside Down CAPM and Home and Land Prices
  125. Scattered Thoughts on March CPI, Interest Rates, and Housing
  126. Upside Down CAPM and Home Prices
  127. Upside Down CAPM and the Trump Recession
  128. A review of markets, interest rates, and homebuilder expectations
  129. ...And the Ugly
  130. The Good, the Bad,...
  131. Conventional Wisdom about 2008 and the Midwest
  132. February 2025 New Home Sales
  133. Why the Economy Isn't Working, Addendum
  134. Why the economy isn't working, revisited
  135. February 2025 Residential Construction and comments on CPI Inflation
  136. Agglomeration vs. Scarcity
  137. February 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update & Inflation
  138. Odd Lots Podcast
  139. Senate Banking Hearing on Housing Roadblocks
  140. 2022 IRS Income Update and Affordability
  141. February 2025 Employment
  142. Some Homebuilder Forensics
  143. Low-Tier Housing is a good investment, especially for homeowners.
  144. January 2025 Regional New Home Sales and Inventory
  145. Tuoro Land Use Institute Podcast Interview
  146. What is the Erdmann Housing Tracker?
  147. January 2025 New Home Sales
  148. Economists and Price/Rent Ratios
  149. Homebuilder Earnings
  150. Follow-Up to My Investor Ban Rant
  151. January 2025 Residential Construction
  152. January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation
  153. Projects don't pencil.
  154. Canton Follow-Up Post
  155. The Midwest Tragedy: Canton
  156. Phoenix Screenings of "Fault Lines" Documentary
  157. Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida
  158. No, Rent Management Software Didn't Make Phoenix Expensive
  159. What Homes Are Missing, again?
  160. Stop Banning Housing!
  161. Credit Where Credit Is Due: Nashville & Charlotte!
  162. Rent trends and multi-family construction
  163. December 2024 New Home Sales
  164. It's Happening. Not good.
  165. Dallas vs. Austin: Brief Clarification
  166. Dallas vs. Austin
  167. No, this isn't normal
  168. A Crash vs. a Correction
  169. December 2024 Residential Construction
  170. Homeownership isn't that risky
  171. December 2024 Inflation
  172. December 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker
  173. RealPage, Collusion, and Rents: Part 4
  174. Households and Houses
  175. January 2024 Homebuilder Update
  176. Regional Sales Trends
  177. Why you'll hate my investment advice
  178. How Many Homes Do We Need?

2024 164

  1. Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)
  2. Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)
  3. November 2024 New Home Sales
  4. Builder Incentives and Profits
  5. The Fed and Lennar
  6. November 2024 Residential Construction
  7. Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: I swear, the last post
  8. November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker
  9. Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: One Last Word
  10. Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: Follow Up
  11. Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities
  12. When we lost our minds: Pt. 5 The Lessons Leamer Learned
  13. When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel
  14. When we lost our minds: Pt. 3 The Dog that Didn’t Bark - Retirement Homes
  15. When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline
  16. When we lost our minds: Pt.1 Overview
  17. Homebuilder Earnings Update
  18. 21 Century Housing Summary, Missouri Edition
  19. Follow-Up: Mortgages by Credit Score
  20. Mortgages Outstanding by Credit Score
  21. The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 4
  22. The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 3
  23. The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 2
  24. October 2024 New Home Sales
  25. The Housing Shortage by Metro Area
  26. Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath
  27. October 2024 Residential Construction
  28. Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering
  29. Case-Shiller and Filtering
  30. October 2024 Inflation and Housing
  31. October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  32. An interesting election parallel
  33. What Homes Are Missing (by Tenure)?
  34. Rent inflation since Covid
  35. National Housing Crisis Task Force
  36. 2024 3Q GDP
  37. Chat GPT gets Erdmann-pilled
  38. September 2024 Residential Sales
  39. Rough Estimate of the Cost of the Housing Shortage
  40. September 2024 Residential Construction
  41. College towns and agglomeration value
  42. October 2024 Links
  43. September 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update, with inflation notes
  44. How big will the building boom be?
  45. OK. One more Moral Panic post
  46. Last Follow-Up to the Moral Panic... posts
  47. One More FollowUp to the Moral Panic...
  48. Follow-Up: The Moral Panic, Its Perpetrators, and Its Victims
  49. The Moral Panic, Its Perpetrators, and Its Victims
  50. What homes are missing?
  51. We need empty houses
  52. GDP Revisions
  53. What to Expect of Housing Supply & Demand
  54. August 2024 Residential Sales
  55. Responses to My Plea for Looser Lending: Salim Furth
  56. RealPage, Collusion, and Rents: Part 3
  57. Upside Down CAPM, Part 4: The Fed Rate Cut
  58. August 2024 Residential Construction
  59. August 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update, with inflation notes
  60. RealPage, Collusion, and Rents: Part 2
  61. Responses to My Plea for Looser Lending: Dean Baker
  62. My advice for the Harris team
  63. Rent and Inflation Adjustment Errors
  64. More Notes on Kalamazoo
  65. What Kalamazoo Reveals About the Dangers of Incomplete Observation
  66. July 2024 Residential Sales & Homebuilder Earnings
  67. Residential Under-Investment & Housing
  68. July 2024 Residential Construction
  69. Housing and Inflation, July 2024
  70. July 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  71. Patterns in housing: Big = Simple
  72. Rents shouldn’t influence monetary policy
  73. Housing and the Business Cycle in 2024
  74. July Employment & Fed Notes
  75. Valuations, Density, Rents, and Incomes
  76. The Cheat Code for Understanding Housing
  77. Addendum to 2Q 2024 GDP Update
  78. The Inflation Reduction Act and Residential Construction
  79. Boring Housing Expansion July 2024 Earnings Update
  80. June 2024 Residential Construction and Sales
  81. Idle Thoughts on Monetary Policy and Closed Access Housing
  82. A Review of the Layers of Damage
  83. Ignoring Bad Real Estate Analysis for Fun and Profit: Postscript - Micro vs Macro
  84. June 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update (with inflation notes)
  85. Ignoring Bad Real Estate Analysis for Fun and Profit, A Series: Part 3 Current Conditions
  86. Ignoring Bad Real Estate Analysis for Fun and Profit, A Series: Part 2 Inventory
  87. Ignoring Bad Real Estate Analysis for Fun and Profit, A Series: Part 1 Mortgage Rates
  88. Notes on Labor, the Fed, and Homebuilders
  89. Housing Supply & Demand within Cities, Part 3
  90. Housing Supply & Demand within Cities, Part 2
  91. Housing Supply & Demand within Cities, Part 1
  92. May 2024 New Residential Home Sales
  93. Joseph Stiglitz on Housing in Nevada
  94. RealPage, Collusion, and Rents
  95. The Curious Task Podcast
  96. May 2024 Residential Construction
  97. Cyclical vs. Secular Housing Trends
  98. YIMBYism will not create housing losses!
  99. May 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker (with Inflation Update)
  100. The Effect of Income and Income Growth on Home Prices
  101. US Residential Housing: A Simple Story in 4 Acts
  102. How would upzoning affect real estate values?
  103. 2008: The Derek Chauvin Economy
  104. No. Taxpayers didn't bail out Fannie & Freddie
  105. American Economic Devolution & Land Rents
  106. April 2024 Residential Home Sales (and Homebuilder Earnings)
  107. April 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  108. April 2024 New Residential Construction
  109. We need Wall Street in Housing. This is important!
  110. What to expect of inflation
  111. Housing in Ireland, the US, and Australia, Part 2
  112. Housing in Ireland, the US, and Australia, Part 1
  113. A Brief Follow Up to the Brief History
  114. A Brief History Using the Tracker
  115. Housing Permits and Displacement
  116. My Debate with Cameron Murray
  117. Filtering on HGTV
  118. GDP Update 1st Quarter 2024
  119. March 2024 Residential Sales Update
  120. Anyone with a pulse could get a mortgage
  121. Household Size and the Housing Stock
  122. March 2024 Residential Construction Update
  123. March 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  124. We're all below average (except for Austin)
  125. The Vicious Cycle of American Housing
  126. The State of American Home Construction: The Details
  127. A Macro-Summary of the State of American Home Construction
  128. Why The Economy Isn't Working
  129. 2024 IS the counterfactual to 2009!
  130. Follow-Up on February 2024 Residential Construction and Sales
  131. February 2024 Residential Sales
  132. Arizona Republic Op-Ed on a range of Arizona housing reform bills
  133. Notes on Inflation and Rent
  134. February 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Residential Construction
  135. March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview
  136. Another Follow-Up Against Agglomeration
  137. Follow-Up Against Agglomeration Economies
  138. Against Agglomeration Economies
  139. More color on the inevitable rent boom of the 2010s.
  140. Why is Debt-to-Income high?
  141. Mortgage affordability and excess rents
  142. Updating my priors on missing middle
  143. Why more housing appears to make things worse
  144. January 2024 Residential Construction and New Home Sales
  145. The Minneapolis Miracle
  146. Fear of Affordable Housing
  147. Market Power in Housing Construction
  148. San Francisco and Miami. Hot or not?
  149. January 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  150. January 2024 CPI Update
  151. Disgusting
  152. Accidentally testing NGDP level targeting
  153. Transitory Inflation, another review
  154. Homeownership is down more than you thought.
  155. A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story
  156. More on the GDP trend and housing
  157. December 2023 New Home Sales (and GDP!)
  158. Rent Inflation and Housing Supply & Demand
  159. December 2023 Residential Construction
  160. December 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  161. December 2023 CPI and the Soft Landing
  162. Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 4
  163. Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 3
  164. Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 2

2023 136

  1. Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 1
  2. Subprime, bank runs, and the Global Financial Crisis
  3. November 2023 Construction and New Home Sales Update
  4. The Housing Shortage Is Larger Than You Think: Part 2
  5. The Housing Shortage Is Larger Than You Think: Part 1
  6. November 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  7. Interview with Anthony Pompliano
  8. Where would housing expand with broad upzoning?
  9. Hovnanian 2023 Earnings
  10. Interview with James Foord at the Pragmatic Investor
  11. Look at that beautiful yield curve.
  12. CEA: Inflation was transitory.
  13. Unfortunately, production efficiency isn't going to make housing affordable
  14. October 2023 Residential Sales and Homebuilders Update
  15. Inflation was obviously transitory (postscript)
  16. Inflation was obviously transitory
  17. October 2023 Residential Construction
  18. October 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  19. What kind of good is housing?
  20. Housing Supply, Costs, and Urban Value (Part 4)
  21. Upside Down CAPM, Part 3A: Sympathy
  22. Upside Down CAPM, Part 3: Supply and Demand for Deferred Consumption
  23. Quick Perspective Review on Housing Starts and Recessions
  24. Update on rent trends, through September 2023
  25. Upside Down CAPM, Part 2: The value of growth
  26. Upside Down Capital Asset Pricing Model, Part 1
  27. September 2023 Residential Sales and Homebuilder Earnings
  28. A new real estate newsletter: Resiclub
  29. Revisiting Boise
  30. Random notes
  31. September 2023 Residential Construction
  32. September 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  33. More on the Fed and Long-Term Interest Rates
  34. September 2023 Consumer Inflation and Homebuilders
  35. It's never overbuilding. More detail.
  36. It's never overbuilding, and that won't change soon.
  37. Scattered Thoughts on Employment and Construction
  38. No, I don't think the Fed drives future yields
  39. More on House Sizes and Costs
  40. Home Size and Costs
  41. The consumption basket we call "housing"
  42. August 2023 Residential Sales
  43. More on Mortgage Affordability
  44. August 2023 Residential Construction
  45. August 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  46. Inflation: Everyone is right.
  47. Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?
  48. Interest Rates Aren't The Problem
  49. More on Hovnanian 3Q 2023 Earnings
  50. Hovnanian 3Q 2023 and musings on speculation and mortgage rates
  51. The 2023 Market Compared to 2006
  52. Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole
  53. July 2023 New Residential Home Sales & Builder Updates
  54. Housing Supply, Costs, and Urban Value (Part 3)
  55. Brig Burton
  56. July 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker & Residential Construction Update
  57. July 2023 CPI Inflation Update
  58. Housing Supply, Costs, and Urban Value (Part 2)
  59. Housing Supply, Costs, and Urban Value (Part 1)
  60. Scholarship on the Mortgage Moral Panic
  61. June 2023 New Residential Home Sales
  62. The Housing Bust Was Not A Cyclical Event
  63. Transitory Inflation (March 2021- June 2022)
  64. June 2023 Residential Construction Update
  65. Countrywide Financial Didn't Cause the Financial Crisis
  66. June 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  67. June 2023 CPI Inflation Update
  68. Bubble Mongers are more dangerous than bubbles
  69. Comparing housing cycles since the 1980s
  70. A Review of Gjerstad and Smith, Part 4
  71. A Review of Gjerstad and Smith, Part 3
  72. A Review of Gjerstad and Smith, Part 2
  73. A Review of Gjerstad and Smith, Part 1
  74. May 2023 Residential Home Sales
  75. More on May 2023 Residential Construction
  76. May 2023 Residential Construction Update
  77. May 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  78. May 2023 CPI Inflation Update
  79. More detail on "The end of location..." for subscribers
  80. Quick Review of Flow of Funds Data
  81. The End of Location, location, location
  82. Research Roundup
  83. Home Price Trends Point to a Worsening Lack of Supply: Part 3
  84. Home Price Trends Point to a Worsening Lack of Supply: Part 2
  85. Home Price Trends Point to a Worsening Lack of Supply: Part 1
  86. New paper!
  87. Housing is productive investment
  88. April 2023 New Home Sales and Construction Updates
  89. My new piece on home affordability at AZ Central
  90. The shifting sands of observation
  91. April 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  92. More on the Fed, Housing, and Inflation
  93. Has the Fed Been Tardy?
  94. The Great Recession Was Caused By Mortgage Suppression
  95. Does Density Increase Local Prices?
  96. "We need 'affordable' housing, not market rate housing" is much worse than it seems.
  97. No, Biden isn't punishing you for your high credit score (Amendment)
  98. No, Biden isn't punishing you for your high credit score.
  99. Are housing expenditures stable over time?
  100. March 2023 Residential Sales
  101. Is gentrification a cause?
  102. Notes on D.R. Horton 2nd Quarter Earnings Call
  103. March 2023 Residential Construction Update
  104. March 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  105. Housing Supply per capita eats your brain (Part 2)
  106. Housing supply per capita eats your brain
  107. More on Residential Sales Trends
  108. February 2023 Residential New Home Sales
  109. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street and the Bi-partisan American Own-Goal
  110. More Detail on February Erdmann Housing Tracker Trends
  111. The Zoning Theory of Everything
  112. February 2023 Residential Construction Update
  113. Inflation is Over
  114. A Brief Review of Mortgage Affordability
  115. February 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  116. A way to think about long-term homebuilder expectations
  117. Supply constraints and residential improvements
  118. Hovnanian 2023 1st Quarter
  119. ThinkTech Hawaii Podcast with Keli'i Akina
  120. January 2023 New Home Sales & Construction Update
  121. Who Causes Problematic Housing Demand?
  122. January 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  123. Op-Ed in the Arizona Republic
  124. Myths of the Housing Bubble, a continuing series
  125. BTRE Podcast
  126. A little secret buried in a homebuilder's SEC filings
  127. What if we can’t expect cities to build more?
  128. 2022 December New Home Sales & Construction
  129. AlphaSense Podcast
  130. Shadows of Non-Filtering in Housing
  131. The Secular Looks Cyclical
  132. Subscription offer!
  133. December 2022 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  134. Unpacking 20 years of home price trends
  135. Quick Note on Units Under Construction
  136. More Color on Cancellations

2022 56

  1. "Reassessing the role of supply and demand on housing bubble prices" (Part 6)
  2. 2022 November New Home Sales & Construction
  3. "Reassessing the role of supply and demand on housing bubble prices" (Part 5)
  4. "Reassessing the role of supply and demand on housing bubble prices" (Part 4)
  5. "Reassessing the role of supply and demand on housing bubble prices" (Part 3)
  6. "Reassessing the role of supply and demand on housing bubble prices" (PART 2)
  7. November 2022 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  8. "Reassessing the role of supply and demand on housing bubble prices"(Part 1)
  9. Thoughts on Jerome Powell's Housing Comments
  10. 2022 October New Home Sales & Construction
  11. "Price is the Medium Through Which Housing Filters Up or Down": Part 4
  12. "Price is the Medium Through Which Housing Filters Up or Down": Part 3
  13. "Price is the Medium Through Which Housing Filters Up or Down": Part 2
  14. "Price is the Medium Through Which Housing Filters Up or Down": Part 1
  15. Quick Review for Funsies
  16. A few more charts on October Home Prices
  17. October 2022 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  18. Cyclical Home Prices: Individual Metros
  19. Some visuals on cyclical home prices
  20. The Base Case is Optimistic: Homebuilders
  21. The Base Case is Optimistic
  22. Who is the "Superstar" City?
  23. 2022 September Home Sales & Construction, and 3Q GDP
  24. The YIMBY Housing Correction: Rent
  25. September Residential Construction
  26. The YIMBY housing correction
  27. September 2022 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  28. Housing under constraints
  29. More Data for Subscribers
  30. What's Driving Home Values (Part 6)
  31. Texas' "One Weird Trick"
  32. What's Driving Home Values (Part 5)
  33. August 2022 New Residential Home Sales
  34. August Residential Construction
  35. What's Driving Home Values (Part 4)
  36. What's Driving Home Values (Part 3)
  37. What's Driving Home Prices (Part 2)
  38. August 2022 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
  39. What's driving home values (Part 1A)
  40. What's driving home values (Part 1)
  41. Interesting Hovnanian Enterprises Earnings Call
  42. Boise: A Case Study in the Housing Boom
  43. Categories of Housing Contraction, Part 3
  44. Categories of Housing Contraction, Part 2
  45. Categories of Housing Contraction, Part 1
  46. July New Home Sales
  47. "Rising Home Prices Are Mostly from Rising Rents"
  48. July 2022 Tracker Update
  49. Housing always goes two ways at once (part 2)
  50. Housing always goes two ways at once
  51. The damage from the mortgage moral panic is not subtle. (Part 2)
  52. The damage from the mortgage moral panic is not subtle.
  53. A Review of Boom and Bust & an Invitation to Subscribe
  54. Our Cantilever Housing Market
  55. Why the "Erdmann Housing Tracker"?
  56. Coming soon