West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
2009–2011
1,312 posts
2011 695
December 2011
- The sum of all fears = 183
- Yes, another talking baby video, now with informed commentary
- A quote from Coase
- The scandal isn't that the New York Times is one of our worst papers; the scandal is that it's one of our best papers
- Adam Smith
- You have to wonder what they're thinking
- If you're following Burn Notice online
- I think we also need to page Mark Palko
- Does strong government help?
- Introducing the Ddulites
- Is there an economist is the house? Casey Mulligan edition
- Happy Holidays
- Layoffs
- Do copyright extensions drive innovation? -- Hollywood blockbuster edition
- Two telling quotes from Bill Adair of PolitiFact
- Intellectual property: the story that never ends
- Still more adventures in intellectual property
- A few more thoughts on journalistic conformity
- Prediction is difficult
- Can we do observational medical research?
- How to read Megan McArdle part 46 -- the quotes
- When a model simply doesn't match reality
- A really nice article by Andrew Gelman and Kaiser Fung
- Remember, it no longer counts as plagiarism unless you use exactly the same words
- K12
- Question about Airlines
- This week's appalling story of intellectual property abuse
- Maybe the Republican primary is going just as we should expect
- Model assumptions
- Quote of the day
- Defined Contribution Health Insurance
- Eating Eric Roberts
- Your tuition dollars at work
- Agendas
- Cascading failure
- What fictional character has been worst served by his or her movie adaptation?
- Student Loans: a continuing series
- I happen to like handles on my coffee cups
- More "moral" economics via Chait
- Economics and Morality
- "So crazy it just might work"
- Intellectual Property
November 2011
- Emotionally an eight-year old
- Lots of good stuff
- I hate John D. Cook
- Apple Stock
- Another statistics/auteur theory post -- causality
- Sad news
- Contradictions
- Living with Mistakes the easy way -- larger points
- "[T]he numbers show that wage inflation is — literally — the least of the problems when it comes to university cost inflation"
- Probably the damnedest thing you'll see this weekend
- Peak Life Expectancy
- Glycemic control and diabetes: today's evidence
- Things that make you wince science writing edition
- Tax Levels
- Toys for Tots -- reprinted, slightly revised
- The most disgusting image I could come up with in the education reform debate
- Statements that I violently disagree with
- Evaluating evidence
- Why aren't you reading the incidental economist?
- Hard work
- Laboratory animals in biomedicine -- a recycled reply
- The limitations of laboratory animals in biomedicine
- How not to convince people
- Tone poem -- how Duncan Black and company missed the big picture
- Cross sectional reasoning
- Another "It's too late tonight to do it justice..."
- I'm not knowledgeable enough to sufficiently mock this* #
- Libertarians in Space
- Tex Avery animates David Frum's sudden move to the center
- Pre-blogging Jack Shafer
- Health Care Costs
- Old story, different hemisphere
- Werner Herzog, LA, and structural employment in hot jazz
- But some of my best friends are administrators
- I haven't taken a cheap shot at an administrator for a while
- Speaking of curriculum -- Armenian edition
- At least we aren't giving them antidepressants
- One of the risks of living is dying
- The worst example of curriculum dead wood?
- We need curriculum reform but we need to do it right
October 2011
- Is consistency too much to ask?
- Pre-blogging David Carr
- California Pension Reform
- Another cautionary tale of corruption by metrics
- Felix Salmon on the implosion of Netflix
- Is this an expression you want to see on the face of a woman holding a giant axe?
- A Luddite Portfolio
- Tragic alignment
- Interesting Trading Idea
- A tweet from Matt Yglesias
- The secret of (unintentional) comedy is timing
- I could not disagree more
- Great catch from Jared Bernstein -- four years of your life for a lousy, stinking 0.1% a year
- Occasionally I feel a little down...
- Possibly the best graph of the year
- Antidepressants
- Ms Goldstein on Tenure
- "Don't like my tax plan? Dial 1-800-EAT-USED-FOOD"
- Some more thoughts on MeTV
- Unemployment
- More banking thoughts
- Bad banks and (you guessed it) free TV
- Financial security and the decision to start a family
- Best economic metric based on a Seinfeld routine
- Testing Theory
- Update on BoA severance
- Social Justice
- Epidemiology is about communication
- Testing teachers
- More on Executive Compensation
- Schlock Mercenary
- Free TV blogging -- Why Weigel Broadcasting may be the best business story that no one's covering -- part I
- CERN disproves global warming!
- Equal time for American Public Media
- The unhappiest place on earth?
- Response to Comments
- "100,000 Tablets for School Children in New Delhi"
- Market Efficiency
- Effect Sizes
- The danger of deserve
- Why I keep going on about rabbit ears
- You should read this
September 2011
- Performance based teaching
- Micheal Lewis on California Government
- What you'd be watching now if you had rabbit ears
- I wish I had time to join this debate
- Tag-teaming Felix Salmon
- We treat economists as authorities on genetics and epidemiology but we aren't that interested in what they have to say about economics
- When Greece is an appropriate example
- Joey Skaggs and Rick Perry
- Marginal utility
- California Falling
- Is smoking really the most important predictor of obesity?
- Beware of pundits bearing ADA arguments
- The Growth Fetish cont. -- Netflix and Dylan
- Principal agents
- Leave SpongeBob aloooooooone!
- Logic on social security
- How do you say Los Angeles
- What is up with Arkansas?
- Medical spending as a zero-sum game
- Professionals and Advancement
- Appropriate Scales
- The Wisdom of Salmon
- The Growth Fetish
- Dream a little dream for me
- And now for a break from serious discussion
- 401(k) plans
- Open Call
- Personal Finance talk
- Remind me not to piss off Felix Salmon
- Type M Bias
- Replication in Science
- Earmarks and Agricultural Research
- "Ask Mister Math Person"
- When a toothache is fatal
- When good news is a long way away
- XKCD on investing
- Cassandra in reverse?
- Because it isn't there
- Credentialing versus teaching
- Student Debt
August 2011
- Economics puzzle
- A different point of view on Michael Lewis
- More Freakonomics causality
- "Picked so green you could kick them to market"
- As problems go, that one really is pretty fundamental
- More from Salmon on Dalberg
- From the New Republic. Seriously.
- Medical Free Markets
- More on Medicare
- Medical Expenses
- More on the vanishing business of writing
- Never give money to a company that has a Director of Thought Leadership
- Is there a demographer in the house? -- Texas edition
- Options have a cost associated with them
- Medicare versus Social Security
- Still more intellectual property silliness
- An interesting observation about the electoral math of Texas
- Wish I had time to discuss this in detail
- When you really want to reach a conclusion
- Last conference of the year
- Noah Smith has some smart things to say about libertarians and property rights...
- Stop by and see what you think
- A sentence that you just don't want to hear
- Xkcd
- You might not want to read it while you're eating...
- Must-reads
- I think we can all use a distraction now
- Tax Policy
- Bad optics
- Libertarianism and it's limitations
- Jonathan Chait: "I suppose I didn't express myself as well as I could have." -- repeatedly
- My disconnect with Jon Chait
- Another This American Life episode you ought to listen to...
- The discussion continues
- Declining Salaries for Writers
- Paul Krugman should continue doing more productive things than watching TV
- Worth keeping in mind
- A classic natural experiment
- Paul Krugman needs to watch more TV
- "No linear relationship" does not mean "no relationship"
- US Credit Rating
- Question for economic modelers
- If America's not AAA, is anybody?
- Grade Inflation
- Question for Jonathan Chait
- Krugman backslides
- Excuses, excuses, excuses
- A return to education as a topic
- Are we entering the Post-coalition age of American politics?
- Is health care choice important?
- Math issues
- Apologies to Mr. Raz
July 2011
- Overly-trusting Straussians
- A view into the queue
- How to improve health care for the poor
- "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue"
- Words of Wisdom -- Weekend Edition
- Too busy to give this the write-up it deserves
- Restoring my faith in public radio
- A surprisingly blunt view of finance
- Why we're where we are
- Virtuous Circles
- When all of your studies are ecological
- Mr. Glass vs. the Patent Troll
- A busy morning
- Different visions of Health Care
- Implications of not raising the debt ceiling
- The irrationality of engineers
- Popular Micro-economics
- Anybody's culpa?
- Subtle satire or ugly glimpse into the mind of the NYT -- you be the judge
- California Education
- Grade Inflation
- Another must-hear from This American Life
- Felix Salmon addresses something that's been bothering me for a long time
- Wise Bloodsport
- Modeling assumptions
- Challenges of causal inference in complex systems
- Harnessing the power of tax evasion to address climate change
- Case Crossover paper and time trends
- Transformations
- The Chameleon XLE
- Simulation and foolish cost-cutting
- Dean Dad on Higher education
- Freelance Writing
- Too much silliness, too little time
- Online Retailers and Sales Tax
- Jonathan Chait -- now to the right of David Brooks on Education
- It's like Groupon, only they don't even check with the merchants first
- The Orphan Works Project
June 2011
- If you're serious about education reform...
- Adoption studies as Rorschach test
- Another data dump
- more thoughts on geoengineering
- Extraordinary interview with Eric Sterling
- Bond villains can be so hard to shop for
- Now their feelings are hurt
- Those darned Canadians
- If your BS detector isn't going off, you need to check your battery
- Some confusion with the concept of future tense
- Weekend Blogging -- Free TV edition
- "Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in." -- another Groupon post (merchant relations edition)
- So much for maintaining a light tone over the weekend
- "How To Party Your Way Into a Multi-Million Dollar Facebook Job" -- the sad state of business journalism
- More bad statistics from Freakonomics
- Is Megan McArdle abandoning the Chicago School?
- Some reflections on student loan debt
- What fun is it firing people if you don't get to humiliate them too?
- Some products simply demand a targeted approach
- Weekend Gaming -- in memoriam/elegant games
- A Groupon postscript
- More on McKinsey
- Reporting on methods
- "We've made huge advances in what they're called"*
- The real problem with Groupon
- (Probably) OE's penultimate Groupon
- How exactly do you cold call a CT scan?
- Canadian Health Care
- Cap'n Crunch -- the Movie (you know they'll get around to it eventually)
- If you recognize this picture, you don't have to give your age
- Uncertainty and default -- another "if you don't post it someone else will"
- Adverse selection, misaligned interests and Groupon
- Sawdust in the transmission
- Yeah, n = 1, but based on this sample, I can't see Groupon doing any targeting at all
- What's the best investment you can ever make? (another Groupon post)
- More on Groupon
- Salmon/Fung cage match -- Did Salmon use a representative example?
- Apparently, journalists who work for Yahoo don't have access to the internet
- Friday afternoon data dump
- RIP: Joel Rosenberg
- One more thought
- University Professor Compensation -- Andrew and Joseph hit the big points but leave out the punch line
- University Professor Compensation
- Tyler Cowen argues against more regulation with an example that calls for more regulation
May 2011
- A couple of interesting stories on the business of gambling
- A "how to lie with statistics" instant classic from the Wall Street Journal op-ed page
- Metaphor of the day
- More nails in the church door -- the case for the counter-reformation keeps getting stronger
- Thought of the day
- 3-day Weekend Blogging -- Junk Food edition
- Correlation is not causation . . .
- Perhaps we were a bit too quick to dismiss the Jupiter effect
- Consistency
- And NPR is probably the best of the bunch
- There's only one thing more annoying than the kind of post Mike Konczal just put up
- More intellectual property silliness
- "Top Colleges, Largely for the Elite" -- no, really?
- Another data dump
- I am surprised Mark did not post this
- Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without
- I can't cut-and-paste this New Yorker article, which is perhaps just as well
- Would you rather have Jon Stewart or Felix Salmon gunning for you?
- Dean Dad makes an essential point about the higher education debate
- Why restrict the types of NSAIDs used as active comparators?
- Weekend Blogging -- technology edition
- Libertarian dreams
- This is a big deal
- The end of the world as seen by Basil Wolverton
- Weekend pop culture blogging -- comic strip edition
- The headline alone makes it worth clicking the link
- How to lie with statistics -- the category category
- Dana Goldstein actually visits LA
- Preblogging energy
- Weekend Gaming -- that other chess set is just sitting there
- "Economists are the rapiest profession going"
- Andrew Ross Sorkin is not helping
- Tax Policy
- "This really isn't about the hunting, is it, Bob?"* -- more on just scraping by on a quarter mil
- What Rick Santorum had to say about fiscal responsibility in 2003
- "The Problem with Biomass, Part 1"
- Sympathy for the financially inept
- Back to the future
- Alternatives to Social Security
- It's too late tonight to do it justice...
- More weirdness from Blogger
- I can think of some exceptions
- For years I tried to make calculus interesting
- Those who forget the future are doomed to repredict it
- Sure $172,200 sounds high but you do get room and board
- Noah Smith leaves out an important distinction
- Again with the comic books
- I guess we were just collateral damage
- Taxes and Growth via Yglesias
- Lending an air of authority to any argument
- Weekend Gaming -- the greatest board game series ever?
- "It wasn't our fault... Honest"
- Yes, they actually do have a "Best Illusion of the Year contest"
- A defense of Star Wars
- Another argument for Social Security
- Three education stories -- two interesting and one important
- It's okay to call Oedipus a...
- "This is an egregious example of a public university being willing to sell itself for next to nothing."
- Pop culture resources -- you may never leave the couch
- While on the subject of old pop culture
- One of the advantages of studying old pop culture...
- Great quote on the value of brand
- Why do libertarians not hate geoengineering?
- Clarity Has A Well-Known Liberal Bias
- Altered Oceans
- The Culture that is Britian
- I was thinking about the way organizations find to avoid acknowledging the obvious
- Noahpinion on Public Goods
- California's Choice
- Charlie Stross summarizes the latest report on the Fukushima Daiichi accident
- Why companies do the things that they do -- sports sponsorship edition
- Occam's barbershop -- Hollywood edition
- A conservative view on health care reform
- Weekend Gaming -- special video edition
- An actual quick one on broadcast TV
- A False Dichotomy
- "Teaching. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
- A kindness by omission
- Professor DeLong's history lesson for the day
- Apparently, the lot of some economists is to be painfully condescending
- Another quick one on broadcast TV
- One of Krugman's talents
- The human spirograph
April 2011
- Weekend Gaming -- perfecting the imperfect
- A physicist in econ-land
- "Premature Ecalculation"
- Inessential Yglesias -- understanding the elasticity of oil demand
- Essential Yglesias
- Around a quarter of a million reasons to want to keep your job
- Preblog -- Businessmen seldom believe in efficient markets and rational actors
- Two quotes
- Subtracted cities -- the art of falling gracefully
- While we're on the subject of economic assumptions...
- I'm not against the language of the marketplace
- "On Public Funding of Colleges and Towards a General Theory of Public Options"
- As a rule, the Centers for Disease Control give better health advice than Gawker
- Silence
- When people are willing to pay extra not to use your enhancement...
- Cool yet useful -- typography edition
- Taxes and Growth
- "Great moments in marketing -- Charlie Sheen edition"
- Cheap Beer, Paradoxical Dice, and the Unfounded Morality of Economists
- Post-weekend Gaming -- five-penny backgammon
- Mark Thoma makes an important point
- Removing Uncertainty
- Because it's Saturday
- Then and now -- Paul Ryan edition
- Weekend pop culture blogging -- comic strip edition
- Tale of two tax rates
- Quote of the day
- Prediction is hard
- Online gambling meets artificial intelligence, sort of...
- You have to admit it does simplify things quite a bit
- More on deficit reduction
- Deficits
- Catching up
- A big recommendation and a small caveat for "The Test Generation"
- Conventional wisdom alert -- Who needs a graphing calculator?
- "Do you know what 'synergy' is?"
- Hamsters, fitness landscapes and an excuse for a repost
- The Anti-Hulu Hypothesis
- [OT] Bioware's new Star Wars RPG
- Health Care and Confusion
- Some perspective
- It's not often epidemiologists get pandered to
- "Cathie Black's Departure: Totally Predictable. Plus: Meet Dennis Walcott"
- Another interesting Ryan graph from Krugman
- Andrew Gelman buries the lede
- Unemployment Forecasting
- The way some people talked in 1930
- Why I still drop by Krugman's blog once or twice a week
- It's that sub-advisement you really have to worry about
- Brad DeLong digs through the NYT archives for this memorable rebuttal of Charles Murray
- Fixing performance pay
- It's possible that statisticians have an odd definition of 'interesting'
- Denominators
- Google's autocomplete can lead you to some strange and dark places
- I'm not reading the funny pages -- I'm studying the implications of comparative advantage
- Weekend Thriller Blogging -- the Maltese Falcon
- At least we can still drink and drive
- Press-release journalism and the NYT's lost default setting
- Interactively nerdy
- AP classes and college development
- Finally, a bill that will "empower and protect teachers"
March 2011
- Test Scores
- If you haven't used your 20 yet...
- One more radio story then I'll call it a night
- Harsh, cold moments of self-realization
- Why we need NPR
- Just pay the 99 cents, you cheapskate!
- "The best report ever on media piracy"
- Student Assessment
- "We had a reason..."
- What exactly are the localized benefits of a university?
- Things it's too late to blog about
- Weekend Gaming -- Escape the orthogonal
- Another New Haven thought
- "Academic Intimidation"
- Universities and prosperity -- another data point
- Cancer survival rates
- Credit where credit is due
- Teachers are nervous about Michelle Rhee's suggestions because they're afraid other people in power will act like Michelle Rhee
- NYT Paywall -- still getting the feeling they haven't thought this through
- In coal's defense, it is a wonderful source of mercury
- Introducing the headless clowns analogy
- "Is economics a science?" and other silly question
- If you can't say something nice, quote Kaufman
- Make that 300... No, make that 400 years
- Doesn't Alton Brown have a hand puppet for this?
- Time to call a lie a lie
- "How to Erase $70,000 in Debt"
- Safety of Energy Sources
- 20 each?
- A nice post on Education Reform
- Sunday Morning Funnies
- Weekend Gaming -- the heated chess/checkers debate
- Tenure and the end of mandatory retirement (Canada edition)
- Not all that broken up about the paywall
- I'm heading out the door but before I go...
- New Education Bill
- Cloning Jaime Escalante -- a thought experiment
- Krugman joins the nuclear debate
- More Glaeserian causality
- If you want to understand what's wrong with American education...
- The Annotated "Evaluating New York Teachers, Perhaps the Numbers Do Lie"
- "Jefferson is spinning in his grave"
- The lessons of Motown
- Felix Salmon catches me off guard
- Science Fiction Thoughts
- Nobody talks about the Caulfield problem
- The paradox of New Haven
- Nate Silver takes apart another favorite political myth
- Weekend Gaming -- The Game of Gale
- I don't know what to make of this...
- Does anyone out there know Michael Winerip?
- Folsom Prison Blues
- One way of handling worrisome demographic shifts in the electorate
- A useful table and a few observations
- Universities and Growth
- If only there were a major university in the Detroit area
- Felix Salmon shoots the elephant in the room
- Firing Teachers
- In other words, Good Will Hunting understood sigma notation
- Something else that shouldn't surprise people but probably will
- Analogy of the day -- it's your funeral
- While 'real' news shows were covering Charlie Sheen...
- This is the sort of thing that makes me nervous
- The right likes it better but the left does it better
- What is this word, 'contract,' of which you speak?
- Ultrasonic Remote/Observational Epidemiology cage match?
- Why we forgive him the puns
- Hoisted from comments: "Well, they needed someone to listen."
- Flashman finds work
- Then they made that terrible movie about him with Kevin Spacey
- Weekend Gaming -- Recommending a book and appreciating a publisher
- This does explain a lot
- The inalienable right to have a nice lawn
- This might just be an example of what we were talking about
- Does running schools like a business actually argue for keeping LIFO? -- part II, the need for layoffs
- Does running schools like a business actually argue for keeping LIFO? -- part I, the nature of layoffs
- Arguments that generalize poorly
February 2011
- This should literally be a textbook example of how phrasing and context affect polling
- More big burdens, more small shoulders
- Health Insurance
- The biggest burdens go on the smallest shoulders
- Castles and Crusades
- Some Thoughts on Personal Finance
- A Miscellany of Topics That Will Not Appear in My Next Blog Post
- This round just might go to Eminem
- Weekend Gaming -- Piet Hein's TacTix
- Interesting paper on peer effects
- So many problems for such a little state
- Evidence
- You'll notice they said nothing about the op-eds being fit to print
- "Just around the corner" for about a century
- "Don't worry, honey, the other children won't judge you on your looks."
- Goodbye little buddy
- "Especially when it’s done wrong"
- There is no market solution to the blankonomics problem
- Environment is complex
- A nice comment on investment strategies
- The unreliable magic of compound interest
- Another note on Herman Mankiewicz, Peter Bogdanovich, and the definition of 'hack'
- If you don't post it someone else will
- Weekend Gaming -- Quickie book review edition
- Social Security
- Edward Glaeser
- Zonkers and millionaires
- How to lie with statistics -- rare cinema history edition
- An excuse to pull out my favorite John Ford quote
- Having made fun of Paul Krugman's puns, there's no way I can use the title "Darby's Rhee Lapse"
- Paul Krugman still has no shame
- Words of Wisdom
- Easily worth a thousand words... Maybe even fifteen hundred
- Forget Jeopardy, show me a computer that can play Eleusis
- Notice anything funny?
- "Looking under the lamp post"
- An interesting perspective
- "Human see; human do."
- Google can make you disappear
- USA Today has some bad graphs but at least it's not the New York Times
- Great moments in metawork
- "The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post"
- Concerns with data driven reform
- Metawork
- Tiger moms are nothing...
- One more simple game for your weekend
- Weekend Gaming -- Hexagonal Chess
- "Why the Efficient Market Hypothesis (Weak Version) Says Nothing about the Ability to Identify Bubbles"
- The Good Principal Principle
- At least we've gotten more efficient at some things
- E-verify
- Administration
- The Principal Problem
- I originally had a mean headline but my better angels swooped in*
- Do good teachers make difficult employees?
- I really ought to do a post on estimation and developing mathematical intuition one of these days
- The Principal Effect -- repost
- In the center, the National Review. On the right, the New Republic
- On the off chance that you ever wondered what "The Love Song of J Alfred Prufrock" would sound like if written by Rudyard Kipling...
- Jim Manzi has some smart things to say about teacher evaluations
- Michael Hiltzik on the Texas Miracle
- What do you do when things are tight?
- New rule
- An experiment in blogging -- the conclusion [reposted]
- An experiment in blogging -- reposted
- Catching up with Dana Goldstein
- If I'm going to compare H-1Bs and serfdom, I should at least find a British guy for the video
- "If you don't do well in school, your descendants could grow up to be Morlocks"
- Krugman does stat 101
- Semi-serfdom
- It has reached the point where not only do sitcoms portray Ponzi schemes...
- There might just be a lesson here somewhere.
- Well-mannered spam
- More on poverty and education
- Speaking of epicycles...
- Damn you, Paul Krugman!
- Employment in the US
- Education and Poverty
- It's important to keep up standards
- Going full circle in pop culture hell
- Soon to be relevant quote
- While on the subject of checkers...
- Weekend Gaming -- Behold the humble checker
- Maybe it's a system for redistributing wealth to statistical consultants
- If you hurry, you can read it before I do
- Free TV vs. Hotel Cable
- The lesson of Cassandra -- sometimes it's no fun being right
- People who ought not to be interesting but are
- Outsourced blogging
- There has never been a greater time-wasting innovation than Wikipedia
- And you thought statisticians were just good for counting cards
- "What is the worst case scenario here?"
- "If you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao..."
- Is geography destiny? -- walkability
- Another Education Post
- LA, NYC and other imaginary places
- If you turn on the dome light, the whole thing explodes
- Is geography destiny?
- Depressing thought of the day
- Just when you thought it was gone for good -- more thriller blogging
- Blog-snark as a high art
January 2011
- Raising tuition
- Brad DeLong needs to watch more TCM
- Paul Krugman has no shame
- Student Loans
- The curious case of Dr. Glaeser
- When bad things happen to good technologies
- Better late than never...
- Mini-colloquium: Homework
- Hotel pricing enigma
- Educational Lotteries
- Weekend Gaming -- The Blue and the Gray
- A new post by James Kwak, an old rant by me
- One more exchange on Mankiw's assumptions
- Evaluating the evaluations
- Repost -- Fitness Landscapes, Ozark Style
- They may be anecdotal...
- "Why 3D doesn't work and never will. Case closed."
- What's French for spam?
- I could not agree more
- Health care and economies of scale
- Brewsterian astrophysics and Frazzian mathematics
- Damned, pinko entrepreneurs
- Kind and literate OE readers
- Note to Gelman -- first fill its mouth with salt, then light candles, then decapitate
- Weekend Gaming -- Agon
- Credit where credit is due
- Alignment of Incentives
- Hoisted from comments -- still more on Mankiw's assumptions
- Contractually obligated to mention Canada again
- In good company
- Achilles and the Tortoise, the CBO and the GOP
- The Self-esteem gap
- Department of better late than never
- The spam filter on Blogger... what's the word?...
- Jonathan Chait disapproves of a liberal journalist's flip-flop on unions
- Mortgage Questions
- The Golden Globes as a collective action problem
- School segregation
- What can I say, I'm a sucker for a good Procrustes joke
- Academics
- Joe Gores wrote the best chimpanzee sex scene you'll ever read
- When relative rates are misleading
- Quality journalism -- only available for a limited time
- More thoughts on fluoride and lithium
- The middle of January and already in reruns -- Alice in Lawyerland
- More on Just Desserts
- Hoisted from comments -- more on Mankiw's assumptions
- "The generosity collapse"
- If a PhD isn't worth it, you can always get a law degree
- Yes, they really are looking at you
- Andrew Gelman on the methodological attribution problem
- Lithium in the water supply
- Google -- Over-spammed or over-engineered (or both)?
- 'Standard' does not mean 'sound'
- Damned Canadian Show-offs
- "Two and a Half Cheers for Education"
- Political rhetoric and political violence -- the McKinley Assassination
- Dark days
- While we're doing "then and now"
- Lone star, bad portents
- Defining Denominators
- Rajiv Sethi was there first
- Earnings of Post-Docs
- Research Plans
- The Scalar Fallacy
- "Why doing a PhD is often a waste of time"
- Correction
- Definition of the Day
- Actually, search engines are like bananas
- Incentives, the TSA, and a question for Tyler Cowen
- Maybe they're sneaking across the border to have their car accidents
- Education thought for the New Year
- Unemployment
- Old School versus New School RPGs
- Minimum Wage Thoughts
2010 569
December 2010
- Settling in
- Warzones and medical research
- Freakonomics: disagreeing about why we disagree
- Not a big deal but...
- "When $250,000 Equals $315,000"
- "Fixing the economy the scientific way"
- Complex Constructs
- A Quick Christmas Wish
- Merry Christmas
- A short letter to James B. Patterson
- If you only read one really long economics lecture this holiday...
- The Peacock's Tail -- Analogy of the week from Brad DeLong
- "Some of us are illegal, and some are not wanted"
- And bonus stat-nerd points for the title
- More on Jump$tart
- Washington Ferries
- Toys for Tots
- 'Confidence' and 'Rationality'
- Wall Street Bonuses and Motivation
- NIH Merger
- Testing the Jump$tart Test
- Temporary Workers
- Boom, bust and echo
- "What is this 'Canada' of which you speak?"
- Canadian Exceptionalism
- A Christmas Reminder
- The Homebase study looks OK but the New York Times is still a mess
- Merit
- Randomized Social Experiments
- "I am not now and have never been a constructionist"
- "Reasons to teach what we teach"
- Interesting Passage
- Homework and treatment levels
- Arnold Kling
- Thomas Jefferson on income inequality
- Profundity adjacent
- On Salmon's blog, even the comments are quotable
- Wargaming
- Funding Cuts
- Education reform and the two kinds of knowledge
- Someone finally notices the orphan technology
- NIH news
- Perils of studying Small Effects
- Yikes
- Nice Observation
- Lottery based admissions
- More on owning preperty to vote
November 2010
- What happens if you have a mortgage?
- Higher education and resource allocation
- All costs are linked
- A point to ponder
- Comments on Grants
- "The Instability of Moderation"
- Orlando Airport
- Happy Thanksgiving
- Dental Care
- Industrial Policy
- Another argument for parenting as an addiction
- Impact Factors
- Airline Security
- History question of the day
- Maybe this is making outcomes worse?
- Seniors in space
- Things you can do if you're a charter school
- Is it too late tonight to write a post on the card game Eleusis?
- Something you have to post immediately if you see it at two a.m.
- Not much time for blogging...
- More wheelbarrows
- Observational Research
- The short, sad life of Toxie the toxic asset
- Bad polls, good polls, better polls
- The Wheelbarrow Problem -- is the imagery of deflation influencing the debate?
- Not quite grasping the placebo concept
- Not sure about this one...
- More on Health Care Efficiency
- "How much [math, literature, history, politics and music] do we really need?"
- Ask your doctor if Sucrosa might be right for you
- Health Care
- More thoughts on Charter Schools
- Nervous Nate -- why timidity at FiveThirtyEight is a sign of professionalism
- An excellent Maxine Udall post
- "How much math do we really need?"
- Diane Ravitch vs. "Superman"
- "The Freakonomics Fallacy"
- Children and Placebos
- And a final word on the subject from America's most successful philosophy major
- Placebos
October 2010
- Worth a quick look
- Diffferences in Professional Standards
- A war with Iran would look nothing like WW II
- And now for something completely different...
- The Volunteer Effect
- Fortune's smartest business books
- Mysteries of resonance
- The most open-label of open-label experiments
- Implications of "counseling out" part II -- missions
- Implications of "counseling out" part I -- metrics
- Nobody loves an orphan technology
- "Counseling out"
- Context in posts
- "they are purging nonperforming students at an alarming rate"
- Silence
- Quick note on good stuff
- On 'Good Morning America': Worthy defends plan to jail parents who skip school conferences
- More fun and games
- Tax increases as landscape perturbation?
- Nothing like a good graph to convey bad news
- Nate Silver tries to disabuse political reporters of another favorite myth
- A probabilistic mystery from Alfred Hitchcock
- Yet another trillionaire protesting the return to Clinton era taxes
- Lucky pennies and constrained roulette
- In praise of orifice-derived numbers
- LA Weekly doesn't just bury the lede; they hide the body
- Benoît Mandelbrot (1924 - 2010) and Education Reform
- "No, I said 'self-select for attitude.'"
- Waiting for Superman... to get bored and drop you like a bad habit
- "5 Myths about Federal Taxes"
- Punch, brothers! punch with care!
- MBA thinking , gestalt and the death of humanities
- Wolfmeat
- Greg Mankiw's reply -- dishonesty or just bad prose?
- Make sure to thank the senator
- If the President wants to get his nominees approved...
- The indispensable Professor Thoma
- "Who would have thought that Erik Estrada would have the more dignified career?"
- Education Reform
- "The Secret of Doublets"
- I don't like to go to the well too often, but...
- Red Half-state, Blue Half-state
- Apparently we've reached the goalpost-moving stage of the game
- More thoughts on education reform
- Matthew Yglesias buries the lede... deep
- "New 'venture accelerator' coming soon to Michigan"
- Perhaps this is the time for a counter-reformation
- Incentive Pay
- Hey, Rocky! Watch me pull an activist ruling out of this hat...
- Buzzwords! Buzzwords! Buzzwords!-- Coping with the Vanderbilt study
- Brief quote from EPI
- An experiment in blogging -- the conclusion
- Cost of Higher Education
- Compensation and Career Paths
- Contracts and compensation
- “Do your job. Keep employed. Don’t come up with a new idea.”
- The cusp of coolness
- The Death Arthur Penn and the definition of the Golden Age of Television
- An experiment in blogging
- Being clear about what the incentives are
- Mommy, where do numbers come from?
- The next time you hear a discussion about the fastest way to pump money into the economy...
- The airport debate continues
- One more from Megan McArdle
- You too can write like a professional pundit -- RMP/STF arguments
- Why Marginal Revolutions is Essential Reading
- One more from Dave Barry
September 2010
- "Phase one: change incentive system"
- Airports
- But I can definitely see the GOP as Lucy
- The heroin's still doing the heavy lifting -- why Ivy League legacies work
- Ecological Fallacy
- "The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage"
- Doesn't Microsoft have a template like this on Word?
- Was I too tough on Seyward Darby?
- Encouraging/Discouraging words from President Obama
- The wonders of shifting rationales
- Does Seyward Darby think Seyward Darby should be fired?
- Perceived vs. Actual Income Distribution
- Today's must read on education
- Obama's education interview
- Propensity Score Matching
- This American Life on HCZ's Baby College
- "Crybabies"
- Principal Agents
- "Ignore the parts about crystal meth and pancakes"
- The trouble with clever theories
- One more thought on seeing McKinsey's “Closing the Talent Gap”
- My first thought on seeing McKinsey's “Closing the Talent Gap”
- Forget teachers-- hell, forget employees, what does it take to fire a CEO?
- Forget teachers, what does it take to fire an incompetent corporate employee?
- Alphametics, the SAT and the theory behind math tests
- Battered Party Syndrome?
- An alphametic pre-footnote
- One more while we're on the subject
- Intellectual Property and Monopsony
- A very good point
- Other degrees of patent protection
- Alice in Lawyerland: would the laws Disney lobbied for have prevented Disney from existing in the first place?
- Instrumental Variables
- Study: Teacher bonuses don't affect student tests
- The ultimate superpower is litigation
- Graph of the Day -- Copyrights
- Murphy strikes again
- Today's Napoleon quote
- "Heroin's doing the heavy lifting"
- What is rich?
- Alex Tabarrok's literary leverage
- OT: More table gaming thoughts
- KIPP and the Teach(er) for America (or you don't know Jake)
- Complex Systems
- XKCD understates its case
- At last, something that Paul Krugman and Alex Tabarrok can agree on
- One reason to look forward to the Republicans retaking Congress and the White House
- A day in the life of a Teach(er) for America -- posted for future comment
- "We've made huge advances in what they're called" -- New Republic edition
- Tenure Track Jobs
- Implications of the DC primary on education
- More on the SRI KIPP report
- Calling Yves Smith
- This is so funny it made me cry
- They just don't care
- So which one is it?
- The appeal of bad ideas -- why do rational executives keep trying ideas that never work?
- (Acknowledging) Failure Is Not an Option
- Substituting metrics for judgement
- If reformers are looking for an indictment of our educational system...
- Cost of Education
- Reflections on the KIPP posts
- Make that most children left behind
- The 'I' stands for 'Ironic'
- Rationality
- More from Yves Smith
- Fishing expeditions
- Changing statistical languages
- Strange Bedfellows
- Non-compete agreeements
- Vintage of Educational Reform
- Interesting thought
- Education in Canada
- Statistical significance (a never-ending series)
- Another troubling study
- EPI Briefing Paper -- Problems with the Use of Student Test Scores to Evaluate Teachers
- The principal effect -- a footnote to the last post
- Addiction
- Oh, Canada -- another interesting omission in "Clean Out Your Desk"
- Small Schools
- Rubin on Educational Testing
- Econned
August 2010
- Measurement part 2
- Are you measuring the right thing?
- Joel Klein's Record
- Sentences to ponder
- Is Ray Fisman one of the best and the brightest?
- Zero Tolerance
- Hazards of sweeping generalizations
- Megan's List
- Trade-offs between Type I and Type II error
- Badly needed break from Fisman
- US Mobility
- Genetic Epidemiology
- Mystery (Education Question)
- The Old Shell Game -- Why you have to keep your eye on Ray Fisman (and no, we're not quite through with the second paragraph)
- More on Avandia
- Starting from the beginning -- Ray Fisman's sins of omission
- Ray Fisman and the Tierney Ratio
- Data censoring and Tootsie Pops
- Desperately Seeking Suzanne (Null)
- A Partial N-space of Eduction Reform -- another preblogged footnote
- A dark, swirling, mammoth wall of wrong
- When people don't understand regression equations
- Light Posting
- Bad collaborators
- Bad teachers, thought experiments and anecdotal data
- Chart of the day
- FemaleScienceProfessor on Tenure
- Epidemiology Data
- Mentioned in passing
- Educational Reform and resources
- Replication
- Notes from a once and future reformer
- Distributions
- Complex processes are hard to simplify
- A better-late-than-never edition of reasons not to trust Naomi Schaefer Riley
- Social Security Thought
- Hiltzik puts SS in plain English
- Quote of the day
- I am not certain that word means what they think it does
- OT: Paizo
- Too many talks
- The role of luck in science
- More on Trower
- University Towns
- Academia and Diversity
- I'm too busy to comment on this at length...
July 2010
- One final(?) reason not to trust teaching metrics
- Variable definitions are tricky
- Association, contribution and causation
- How education reform is becoming like the Eurozone
- Tenure: I just can't look away . . .
- New classes of analgesics
- Teaching yourself mathematics -- a footnote for future posts
- Marginal Revolution has amazing comments
- Seyward Darby -- now not even pretending to think things through
- A quick note on tenure and the economics of deferred compensation
- One last post on Tenure
- Paul Krugman and the limitations of historical analysis
- More on Tenure
- "The Double-blind Job"
- The ASA was out of its mind to give Felix Salmon a reporting award
- Bad public policy
- This is exactly right
- New blog alert
- The yahoos at Yahoo
- Divergent and Convergent Learning
- Bias versus precision
- More on creativity and slippery metrics
- The best way to get rich is to sell books to gullible people
- Creativity
- Net impact
- Another reason not to aggregate elementary and post-elementary school data
- If all students were 15 years old...
- Statistical programming languages
- Speaking for the unhinged
- "Fewer Low-Income Students Going to College"
- Harm Reduction
- More on tenure
- Post tenure era?
- Thinking about teacher layoffs -- the logistics of staffing
- Wayward Seyward
- Narrow versus broad searches
- Risk Taking and success
- Uh oh
- Role models
- How blogging is like SCTV
- Paper review times
- Mark
- Charms and Mogul Dust
- One less reason to read the New York Times
- Publishing Equilibria
June 2010
- The problem with innovation is that it sometimes solves problems
- How to REALLY lie with statistics
- Bob Dylan, the Monkees and the flooded landscape analogy
- Grants!
- It is possible to have a simple question in a complex field
- A pre-post post on Bob Dylan, the Monkees and the perils of reading business books
- Some mathematical humor from Jeff Mallett's charming strip Frazz.
- Social Norms
- Advice on meeting people
- Effect and cause: Hollywood edition
- Credit Hours
- Co-authored work
- Dying is easy; comedy is hard -- journalism edition
- More on impacts of Research
- No subtle and profound scientific insights from Olivia Judson this week
- Socio-economic Models
- I'm not asking for money...
- When is a dollar not worth a dollar?
- Reputational Capital and Operational Definitions
- Delta -- "We love to fly; we just hate the passengers"
- Pick a number, any number -- American Public Media edition
- Thoughts on defined contribution retirement plans
- Minefields
- What I wish I knew before
- "Better a Krabby Patty than a damn"
- More on compensation -- compensation and pyramid schemes
- More on compensation -- tenure edition
- Compensation
- Funding Post-Docs
- Journal Boycotts
- Thank you
- Multiple Languages
- Papers and Industry
- Anti-stimuli
- Seyward Darby does not understand economics
- Innovationary spiral
- Pick a number, any number -- stimulus edition
- How is war like comedy?
- "It's all about re-branding in this economy"
- Really not that damned funny
- "The upside of mortgage default"
- "Poll: Only Campbell Can Beat Boxer"
- Resisting the urge to make a bad pun here
- Perils of Cross-sectional Studies
- Journal Selection Strategy
- Robert Samuelson would not make a good statistician
- Network TV -- now entering their fourth decade on death's door
May 2010
- The economics of rock and roll part III -- Gimme (tax) Shelter
- The economics of rock and roll part II -- quality control and brown M&Ms
- The economics of rock and roll
- Elegance and Economics -- a choice comment from Paul Krugman
- Distributed computing
- "How is model-based macroeconomic forecasting possible?"
- "Baby Steps to New Life-Forms"
- What Auteur Theory and Freshwater Economics have in common
- Journal Reviewing
- Recursion humor
- One less giant
- From Mark Thoma, two links and a damned good observation
- Diy u
- Pudding wrestling, the Antichrist and the breakdown of a winnowing system
- Steve Poizner needs to get out more
- the plural of anecdote is not data
- More great reporting from This American Life
- "Study: Excluding Cellphones Introduces Statistically Significant Bias in Polls"
- What happened before never happened before -- a quick aside on the equity premium debate
- John C. Bogle
- Publishing
- The golden age of financial journalism
- The perils of forecasting
- TPM: still clueless in CA
- There's something about Olivia
- Spousal Hires
- California election update -- the candidate's dilemma
- Orphans in the Advocacy Economy
- Eggs
- Does Talking Points Memo know what it's talking about?
- Candidate Rorschach will not be running
- CA election update -- the ad Meg Whitman didn't want to run
- How to ace the essay section of the SAT
- Financial Literacy
- How to ace the math section of the SAT
- "Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in."
- "Red and yellow can kill a fellow"
- Another failure for the blitzkrieg strategy? -- updated
- "U-Va. should fight Cuccinelli's faulty investigation of Michael Mann"
- I'm not saying we should stop trying...
- What Felix Salmon missed -- the Hulk paradox
- White flight
- "You can't shrink your way into prosperity"
- A brief history of beast-starving by Bruce Bartlett
- Tyler Cowen has nerves of steel
- Things I've learned -- 60s pulp edition
- Things I've learned -- media critic edition
- Scraping by on 200 million
- Times change
- "Research is a joy"
- Tyler Cowen hacks Robert Reich's site
- Weekly dose of Judson
- Are oil companies rational actors?
- Authorship
- "Markets Are Not Magic"
- "Then I came up with a great idea: I could use the fork to spear the food and the spoon to scoop it."
- "Shape of the earth -- opinions still differ"
- Bringing a whole new meaning to the term "Primary Investigator"
- Undiagnosed diseases
- Prelinking Nick Krafft
April 2010
- Hypertension or Blood Pressure?
- Landscapes and Lab Rats
- A good Bayesian Textbook?
- Carbon Sequestration, Lap Band Surgery and the Seductive Allure of the Grand, Deferred Solution
- Predicting the spread
- A serious discussion of the role of barter in health care
- David Brooks' 100K statistic explained
- Fitness Landscapes, Ozark Style
- And my second favorite quote on lying
- Distributions and outliers
- Best quote ever on lying
- Fox News covers quantum physics. What could possibly go wrong?
- In games of perfect information, bluffing is a really bad idea
- The roots of Apple's business model
- "Any color you want as long as it's black"
- SAS graphics
- Weight of evidence
- A chicken in every pot, a couple more for your HMO
- Financial reporting done right
- Journal Impact Factors
- Tragedy of the grading commons
- Who could have seen this one coming?
- Career paths, educational reform and unintended consequences
- Research Scientists
- And you thought you didn't want to know how they made sausage...
- A discussion you ought to be following
- Another reason to abolish tenure
- Bartlett on the intellectual decline and political rise of think tanks
- Quote of the day on financial innovation
- While on the subject of evolution...
- Is Tea Party extremism simply aspect dominance?
- Evolution in the Lab
- You can always get the answer you want if you ask the right question
- Four things you probably didn't know about the Boston Tea Party
- "Health And Virtue"
- First Spider-Man, now Rush
- How about an alternative to p-value?
- The ongoing tyranny of statistical significance testing in biomedical research
- Another financial piece from This American Life
- Good piece on education funding
- This is great news
- The Complexity of the Commons
- Mixed messages
- This is, after all, a write in haste-repent at leisure medium
- And you thought the academic job market was tough
- Chait on careers in journalism
- Statins in healthy individuals
- Outsourcing English papers
- Does this sound right?
- Positive Reviews
- “Gives new meaning to company town.”
- I know there's a Schrödinger's cat joke here somewhere
- Subtle issues
- The Long Goodbye -- the networks are taking a long damned time to die
- All others things being equal
- Decline and Fall of the Media Empires?
- Business models and secret sauces
- Sleaziness as a business model -- first of two posts on Talx
- Statistics is common sense raised to a science
- More on social norming
- In keeping with the season
- Two thoughts on April Fool's Day blogging
- Skipping the math
March 2010
- Blockbusters, Franchises and Apostrophes
- Vanishing media
- Another outstanding (and tragic) economics story from This American Life
- Let's talk about sex
- The real thing
- Today's pointer
- Hey, I used to work there
- The Decline of the Middle (Creative) Class
- Now I'm going to spend the rest of the day wondering what a giant deodorant gun looks like
- Thrillers on Economics -- a quick digression
- All Cretans are ad execs
- My best subject used to be recess
- Another reminder that improbable events are probable
- Excellent primer on the economics of genre fiction.
- Advice from Andrew Gelman
- Fighting words from Andrew Gelman
- Assumptions
- More questions about the statistics of Freakonomics
- Comparing Apples and furniture in a box
- True models?
- The curse of large numbers and the real problem with p-values
- Another chapter in the New Republic Debate
- Silence
- Interesting variable taxation idea from Thoma
- New Proposed National Math Standards
- Too late for an actual post, but...
- Some more thoughts on p-value
- The winner's curse
- A lot to discuss
- Evidence
- "We could call them 'universities'"
- Some context on schools and the magic of the markets
- And for today, at least, you are not the world's biggest math nerd
- Who is this Thomas Jefferson you keep talking about?
- Observational Research
- "The Obesity-Hunger Paradox"
- "The economics profession is in crisis"
- TNR on the education debate
- Harlem Children's Zero Sum Game
- Social norms and happy employees
- Charter schools, social norming and zero-sum games
- Instrumental variables
- Propensity Score Calibration
- Worse than we thought -- credit card edition
- Perils of Convergence
- Efficacy versus effectiveness
- Undead papers
- "Algebra in Wonderland" -- recommended with reservations
- When is zero a good approximation
- How are genetically engineered crops like AAA rated structured bonds?
- Valuing Pain
- p-values
- Comparing Apples and Really Bad Toupees
- Comparing apples and oranges
- "What bankers can learn from arc-welder manufacturers"
- Selection Bias with Hazard Ratios
- Nate SIlver debunks another polling myth
February 2010
- Meta-Freakonomics
- When you really want to argue causality...
- IPTW news
- Editing
- Stand and deliver
- “We've made enormous advances in what they're called” -- more on corporate data cooking
- Sitting and obesity
- Avandia to be withdrawn?
- How to Lie with Statistics -- Allstate Edition
- The Tuition Paradox
- Are humanities and science careers different?
- Academic work hours
- Multiple Testing
- The difficulty of Soft Outcomes
- Post-Doctoral Fellowships
2009 48
May 2009
- Cheerios vs the FDA
- What should your final model be?
- Measuring changes
- Mission Creep
- Sick Days part 2
- Sick Days
April 2009
- Academic Reform
- Bayesian Priors
- Aetiology
- Swine Flu
- OT: Truly bad ideas
- Pay if forward
- You can never go home
- Only in Canada
- OT: Pension Plans
- How long should a post-doctoral fellowship last?
- Tenure Track?
- Why clear methods are important
- Who will be successful?
- OT: Knights of the Old Republic
- Bayesian Model Averaging
- When non-linear relationships attack
- Stepwise Regression
- Reporting results
- Budget Cuts
- What to do in hard times
- OT: Dentists
March 2009
- More on Tenure
- Academic Positions
- Cross Sectional Drug Effects
- Too many names
- Medication discontinuation
- Mistakes
- Service work
- Academic positions
- Industry versus Academy
- Tenure
- OT: What D&D class am I?
- Pre-specificied Analysis
- OT: Firefly
- Irregular Observations
- Missing Data
- A few thoughts on reviews
- Peer Review
- NIH Challenge Grants
- A reply to Andrew Gelman
- Self Selection
- Why do observational epidemiology?