2006–2007
768 posts
2007 689
December 2007
- Honest Teen Paternalism
- My Strange Beliefs
- Cultish Countercultishness
- To Lead, You Must Stand Up
- Econ of Longer Lives
- Lonely Dissent
- On Expressing Your Concerns
- Too Much Hope
- Asch’s Conformity Experiment
- The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy
- Procrastination
- Zen and the Art of Rationality
- Effortless Technique
- False Laughter
- The Greatest Gift, The Best Exercise
- Two Cult Koans
- Interior Economics
- Politics and Awful Art
- Judgment Can Add Accuracy
- The Litany Against Gurus
- Guardians of Ayn Rand
- Gender Tax
- Guardians of the Gene Pool
- Battle of the election forecasters
- Guardians of the Truth
- Hug the Query
- Economist Judgment
- Argument Screens Off Authority
- Give juries video recordings of testimony
- Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence
- Tax The Tall
- Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult
- Does Healthcare Do Any Good At All?
- Misc Meta
- It Is Good To Exist
- The Robbers Cave Experiment
- Welcome to Overcoming Bias!
- When None Dare Urge Restraint
- Modules, signals, and guilt
- Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs
- Doctor Hypocrisy
- Fake Utility Functions
- Open Thread
- Fake Fake Utility Functions
- Heroic Job Bias
- Uncritical Supercriticality
- Resist the Happy Death Spiral
- Baby Selling
- Affective Death Spirals
- Mere Messiahs
- Superhero Bias
November 2007
- Leader Gender Bias
- The Halo Effect
- Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism
- What Insight Literature?
- Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping)
- The Affect Heuristic
- Academia Clumps
- Purpose and Pragmatism
- Lost Purposes
- InTrade fee structure discourages selling the tails?
- The Hidden Complexity of Wishes
- Aliens Among Us
- Leaky Generalizations
- Good InTrade bets?
- Not for the Sake of Happiness (Alone)
- Interpreting the Fed
- Merry Hallowthankmas Eve
- Truly Part Of You
- Overcoming Bias After One Year
- Artificial Addition
- Publication Bias and the Death Penalty
- Development Futures
- Conjuring An Evolution To Serve You
- US South Had 42% Chance
- Towards a typology of bias
- The Simple Math of Everything
- My Guatemala Interviews
- No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices
- Nature Endorses Human Extinction
- Evolving to Extinction
- Don’t Do Something
- Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
- Treatment Futures
- Thou Art Godshatter
- Implicit Conditionals
- Protein Reinforcement and DNA Consequentialism
- Polarized USA
- Evolutionary Psychology
- Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers
- Overcoming bias at work for engineers
- Fake Optimization Criteria
- Dawes on Therapy
- Fake Morality
- Seat Belts Work
- Fake Selfishness
- Inconsistent Paternalism
- The Tragedy of Group Selectionism
- Are The Self-Righteous Righteous?
- Beware of Stephen J. Gould
- College Admission Futures
- Natural Selection’s Speed Limit and Complexity Bound
- A test for political prediction markets
- Passionately Wrong
- Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway)
- Serious Unconventional De Grey
- The Wonder of Evolution
- Hospice Beats Hospital
- An Alien God
- Open Thread
- How Much Defer To Experts?
- Fake Justification
- A Terrifying Halloween Costume
October 2007
- What Wisdom Tradition?
- Random vs. Certain Death
- Who Told You Moral Questions Would be Easy?
- A Case Study of Motivated Continuation
- Double Or Nothing Lawsuits, Ten Years On
- Torture vs. Dust Specks
- College Choice Futures
- Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation
- Bay Area Bayesians Unite!
- Dan Kahneman Puzzles With Us
- Why Are Individual IQ Differences OK?
- If Not Data, What?
- No One Knows What Science Doesn’t Know
- Dennett’s Special Pleading
- Double Illusion of Transparency
- Why I’m Betting on the Red Sox
- InTrade Nominee Advice
- Explainers Shoot High. Aim Low!
- Distrust Effect Names
- The fallacy of the one-sided bet (for example, risk, God, torture, and lottery tickets)
- Expecting Short Inferential Distances
- Marriage Futures
- Self-Anchoring
- How Close Life’s Birth?
- Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You
- A Valid Concern
- Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities
- Hanson Joins Cult
- Congratulations to Paris Hilton
- Cut US Military in Half
- “Can’t Say No” Spending
- Buy Health, Not Medicine
- Hold Off On Proposing Solutions
- Doctors Kill
- The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence
- My Local Hospital
- How to Seem (and Be) Deep
- Megan Has A Point
- Original Seeing
- Fatty Food Is Healthy
- The “Outside the Box” Box
- Meta Honesty
- Cached Thoughts
- Health Hopes Spring Eternal
- Do We Believe Everything We’re Told?
- Chinks In The Bayesian Armor
- Priming and Contamination
- What Evidence Intuition?
- A Priori
- Regulation Ratchet
- No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws
- Flexible Legal Similarity
- Singlethink
- What Evidence Divergent Explanations?
- The Meditation on Curiosity
- Author Misreads Expert Re Crowds?
- Avoiding Your Belief’s Real Weak Points
- Why More History Than Futurism?
- We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think
- Why Not Dating Coaches?
- A Rational Argument
- Can School Debias?
- Recommended Rationalist Reading
- Confession Errors
- Open Thread
- Precious Silence, Lost
September 2007
- Rationalization
- Lies About Sex
- What Evidence Filtered Evidence?
- Jewish People and Israel
- The Bottom Line
- False Findings, Unretracted
- How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
- Elusive Conflict Experts
- 9/26 is Petrov Day
- Drinking Our Own Kool-Aid
- Occam’s Razor
- Even When Contrarians Win, They Lose
- Einstein’s Arrogance
- History is written by the dissenters
- The Bright Side of Life
- How Much Evidence Does It Take?
- Treat Me Like a Statistic but Please Be Nice to Me
- Small Business Overconfidence
- The Lens That Sees Its Flaws
- Why so little model checking done in statistics?
- Bounded rationality and the conjunction fallacy
- What is Evidence?
- Radically Honest Meetings
- Burdensome Details
- Your Future Has Detail
- Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down)
- Why Teen Paternalism?
- Conjunction Fallacy
- Beware Monkey Traps
- Outputs Require Inputs
- Kahneman’s Planning Anecdote
- Epidemiology Doubts
- Planning Fallacy
- Don’t trust your lying eyes…
- Scott Adams on Bias
- Naive Small Investors
- Why I’m Blooking
- Noise in the Courtroom!
- Bias-awareness bias, or was 9/11/01 a “black swan”
- Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased)
- Acquisitions Signal CEO Dominance
- Human Evil and Muddled Thinking
- Gotchas Are Not Biases
- Rationality and the English Language
- Never Confuse “Could” and “Would”
- What Evidence Reluctant Authors?
- Applause Lights
- Bad College Quality Incentives
- We Don’t Really Want Your Participation
- Tyler Finds Overcoming Bias Is important, For Others
- Cut Medicine In Half
- Radical Honesty
- No Press Release, No Retraction
- The Crackpot Offer
- Anchoring and Adjustment
- Why is the Future So Absurd?
- Strength To Doubt Or Believe
- Availability
- The Denier’s Dilemna
- Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias
- Medical Quality Bias
- “Science” as Curiosity-Stopper
- Basic Research As Signal
- Explain/Worship/Ignore?
- The pinch-hitter syndrome: a general principle?
- What Evidence Ease of Imagination?
- Stranger Than History
- Bias As Objectification II
- Open Thread
August 2007
- Making History Available
- We Are Not Unbaised
- Failing to Learn from History
- Seeking Unbiased Game Host
- My Wild and Reckless Youth
- Kind Right-Handers
- Say Not “Complexity”
- The Function of Prizes
- Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark
- Is Overcoming Bias Important?
- The Futility of Emergence
- Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions
- Bias Against Torture
- Semantic Stopsigns
- Exccess Trust in Experts
- Fake Causality
- Is Hybrid Vigor IQ Warm And Fuzzy?
- Science as Attire
- Moral Bias as Group Glue
- Guessing the Teacher’s Password
- Nerds as Bad Connivers
- Why do corporations buy insurance?
- Fake Explanations
- Media Risk Bias Feedback
- Irrational Investment Disagreement
- Is Molecular Nanotechnology “Scientific”?
- Are More Complicated Revelations Less Probable?
- Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
- Pseudo-Criticism
- Are brilliant scientists less likely to cheat?
- Hindsight Devalues Science
- Sometimes Learning Is Very Slow
- Hindsight bias
- Truth – The Neglected Virtue
- One Argument Against An Army
- Strangeness Heuristic
- Update Yourself Incrementally
- Harry Potter the Truth-Seeker
- Dangers of political betting markets
- Conservation of Expected Evidence
- Biases of Biography
- Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
- Confident Proposer Bias
- I Defy the Data!
- What is a taboo question?
- Your Strength as a Rationalist
- Accountable Public Opinion
- Truth Bias
- The Apocalypse Bet
- Spencer Vs. Wilde on Truth Vs. Lie
- You Can Face Reality
- Food Vs. Sex Charity
- The Virtue of Narrowness
- Wishful Investing
- The Proper Use of Doubt
- Academic Political Bias
- Focus Your Uncertainty
- Disagreeing about cognitive style (or personality)
- The Importance of Saying “Oops”
- The Real Inter-Disciplinary Barrier
- Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable
- Anonymous Review Matters
- Belief as Attire
- The Dogmatic Defense
- Professing and Cheering
- How to Torture a Reluctant Disagreer
- Open Thread
July 2007
- Two Meanings of ‘Overcoming Bias’ – For One: Focus is Fundamental. For Second: ?
- “Only Losers Overcome Bias”
- Bayesian Judo
- Self-Interest, Intent & Deceit
- Colorful Characters
- Belief in Belief
- Phone-Shy UFOs
- Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
- T.S. Eliot Quote
- Not Every Negative Judgment Is A Bias
- Schools That Don’t Want To Be Graded
- The Judo Principle
- Beware the Inside View
- Goofy Best Friend
- Meta Textbooks?
- Fantasy’s Essence
- Clever Controls
- Investing In Index Funds: A Tangible Reward of Overcoming Bias
- Bad Balance Bias
- Raging Memories
- Calibration in chess
- They’re Telling You They’re Lying!
- On Lying
- Gullible Then Skeptical
- How Biases Save Us From Giving in to Terrorism
- Privacy rights and cognitive bias
- Conspiracy Believers
- Blogging Doubts
- Radical Research Evaluation
- Looking for a Hard-Headed Blogger
- Goals and plans in decision making
- 7/7/07 Weddings
- Just Take The Average
- Two More Things to Unlearn from School
- Introducing Ramone
- Tell Your Anti-Story
- Reviewing Caplan’s Reviewers
- How should unproven findings be publicized?
- Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?
- What is “Public” Info?
- Take Our Survey
- Let’s Bet on Talk
- What Signals What?
- Reply to “Libertarian Optimism Bias …”
- Biased Birth Rates
- Libertarian Optimism Bias vs. Statist Pessimism Bias
- Painfully Honest
- Biased Revenge?
- The Road Not Taken
- Open Thread
June 2007
- Biases are Fattening
- True Love and Unicorns
- Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative?
- Extraordinary Physics
- Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?
- How to be Radical
- Fair Landowner Coffee
- Death Risk Biases
- Correspondence Bias
- Applaud Info, Not Agreement
- Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t
- Adam Smith on Overconfidence
- Ethics, Applied Vs. Meta
- Wandering Philosophers
- Randomly Review Criminal Cases
- Functional Is Not Optimal
- Were people better off in the middle ages than they are now?
- Selling Overcoming Bias
- Tell Me Your Politics and I Can Tell You What You Think About Nanotechnology
- Beware Neuroscience Stories
- Against Free Thinkers
- 1, 2, 3, Infinity
- Total vs. marginal effects, or, Are the overall benefits of health care “probably minor”?
- One reason why plans are good
- 200,000 Visits
- Choose: Credit or Influence
- Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Hughes
- Odd Kid Names
- Uncovering Rational Irrationalities
- Blind Elites
- Blind Winners
- Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Cutler
- Why Not Pre-Debate Talk?
- Nutritional Prediction Markets
- Progress Is Not Enough
May 2007
- Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton prediction market?
- Shock Response Futures
- Free Money, Going Fast
- Arrogance as Virtue
- Are any Human Cognitive Biases Genetically Universal?
- Hofstadter’s Law
- The Agency Problem
- My Podcast with Russ Roberts
- Truly Worth Honoring
- Scientists as Parrots
- In Obscurity Errors Remain
- Requesting Honesty
- Winning at Rock-Paper-Scissors
- Policy Tug-O-War
- Why Pretty HS Play Leads?
- The Perils of Being “Clearer than Truth”
- When Differences Make A Difference
- You Felt *Sorry* for Her?
- Do androids dream of electric rabbit feet?
- One Life Against the World
- Cheating as Status Symbol
- Underconfident Experts?
- Are Almost All Investors Biased?
- Data Management
- Are Any Human Cognitive Biases Genetic?
- Is Your Rationality on Standby?
- Jokehtml
- Opinions of the Politically Informed
- The case for dangerous testing
- I Had the Same Idea as David Brin! (Sort Of)
- RAND Experiment II Petition
- Scope Insensitivity
- Medicine As Scandal
- The U.S. Should Bet Against Iran Testing a Nuclear Weapon
- Medicare Train Wreck
- Eclipsing Nobel
- What Speaks Silence?
- The Worst You’ve Seen Isn’t the Worst There Is
- RAND Health Insurance Experiment II
- The Conspiracy Glitch
- Doubting Thomas and Pious Pete
- RAND Health Insurance Experiment
- Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism
- Cold Fusion Continues
- Feel Lucky Punk?
- The Third Alternative
- Academics Against Evangelicals
- Race Bias of NBA Refs
- Brave US TV News, Not
- Beware the Unsurprised
- Academic Self-Interest Bias
- The bias in “please” and “thank you”
- Social Norms Need Neutrality, Simplicity
- Think Like Reality
- Overcoming Bias on The Simpsons
- EH Hunt helped LBJ Kill JFK?
- Myth of the Rational Academic
April 2007
- Today Is Honesty Day
- More On Future Self Paternalism
- Universal Law
- Universal Fire
- The Fallacy Fallacy
- To Learn or Credential?
- Feeling Rational
- Overconfidence Erases Doc Advantage
- The Bleeding Edge of Innovation
- Expert At Versus Expert On
- Meta Majoritarianism
- Future Self Paternalism
- Popularity Is Random
- Holocaust Denial
- Exercise Sizzle Works Sans Steak
- The Shame of Tax Loopholing
- Vonnegut on Overcoming Fiction
- Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread
- Irrationality or Gustibus?
- Your Rationality is My Business
- Statistical inefficiency = bias, or, Increasing efficiency will reduce bias (on average), or, There is no bias-variance tradeoff
- New Improved Lottery
- Overconfident Evaluation
- Lotteries: A Waste of Hope
- Just A Smile?
- Priors as Mathematical Objects
- Predicting the Future with Futures
- The Future is Glamorous
- Marginally Zero-Sum Efforts
- URGENT AND IMPORTANT (not)
- Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods
- Suggested Posts
- Modular Argument
- “Inductive Bias”
- Debiasing as Non-Self-Destruction
- Overcoming bias – what is it good for?
- As Good As It Gets
- Driving While Red
- Media Bias
- Could Gambling Save Science?
- Casanova on Innocence
- Black swans from the future
- Having to Do Something Wrong
- Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People
- A Tough Balancing Act
- Mapping Academia
- The Majority Is Always Wrong
- Overcoming Fiction
- The Error of Crowds
- Do moral systems have to make sense?
- Useful Statistical Biases
March 2007
- Big Issues vs Small Issues
- Tolstoy on Patriotism
- “Statistical Bias”
- Explain Your Wins
- Beware of Information Porn
- Info Has No Trend
- Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct
- Libertarian Purity Duels
- Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)
- Reporting Chains Swallow Extraordinary Evidence
- Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia?
- The Very Worst Kind of Bias
- Home Sweet Home Bias
- Norms of Reason and the Prospects for Technologies and Policies of Debiasing
- Useful bias
- Chronophone Motivations
- Archimedes’s Chronophone
- Masking Expert Disagreement
- Morality of the Future
- Moral Progress and Scope of Moral Concern
- Awareness of Intimate Bias
- All Ethics Roads Lead To Ours?
- Challenges of Majoritarianism
- Classic Bias Doubts
- Philosophical Majoritarianism
- Useless Medical Disclaimers
- Arguments and Duels
- Believing in Todd
- Ideologues or Fools?
- Bias caused by fear of Islamic extremists
- Bias on Self-Control Bias
- Multipolar disagreements (Hal’s religious quandry)
- Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization
- Good News Only Please
- Blue or Green on Regulation?
- 100,000 Visits
- Disagreement Case Study: Robin Hanson and David Balan
- The Trouble With Track Records
- Disagreement Case Study – Balan and I
- Moral Dilemmas, Criticism, & Plumping
- The Scales of Justice, the Notebook of Rationality
- None Evil or All Evil?
- Biases, by and large
- Disagreement Case Study – Hawk Bias
- Overcome Cognitive Bias with Multiple Selves
- Extreme Paternalism
- Learn From Politicians’ Personal Failings
- Whose Framing?
- Who Are The God Experts?
- Bias Against Introverts?
- Paternal policies fight cognitive bias, slash information costs, and privelege responsible subselves
- The Fog of Disagreement
- Burch’s Law
- Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!!
- Rational Agent Paternalism
- The “Give Us More Money” Bias
- White-collar crime and moral freeloading
- Happy Capital Day
- Outlandish Pundits
- Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
- Romantic Predators
- Swinging for the Fences when You Should Bunt
- Paternalism Is About Bias
- You Are Not Hiring the Top 1%
- Morality or Manipulation?
- Accountable Financial Regulation
February 2007
- Medical Study Biases
- This Is My Dataset. There Are Many Datasets Like It, but This One Is Mine. . .
- Professors Progress Like Ads Advise
- Marginally Revolved Biases
- Calibrate Your Ad Response
- Disagreement Case Studies
- Just Lose Hope Already
- Less Biased Memories
- Think Frequencies, Not Probabilities
- Fig Leaf Models
- Do We Get Used to Stuff, But Not Friends?
- Buss on True Love
- Is Overcoming Bias Male?
- Bias in the Classroom
- How paranoid should I be? The limits of ‘overcoming bias’.
- Evidence-Based Medicine Backlash
- Politics is the Mind-Killer
- Disagreement on Inflation
- Moderate Moderation
- Bias Toward Certainty
- Selection Bias in Economic Theory
- Induce Presidential Candidates to Take IQ Tests
- crackpot people and crackpot ideas
- Press Confirms Your Health Fears
- Too Many Loner Theorists?
- Words for Love and Sex
- It’s Sad When Bad Ideas Drive Out Good Ones
- Truth is stranger than fiction
- Posterity Review Comes Cheap
- Reputation Commitment Mechanism
- More Lying
- Is Truth in the Hump or the Tails?
- What Opinion Game Do We Play?
- Philip Tetlock’s Long Now Talk
- The More Amazing Penn
- When are weak clues uncomfortable?
- Detecting Lies
- How and When to Listen to the Crowd
- Institutions as Levers
- Will Blog Posts Get Credit?
- Needed: Cognitive forensics?
- Control Variables Avoid Bias
- Dare to Deprogram Me?
- Bias and Health Care
- Just World Bias and Inequality
- Subduction Phrases
- What Evidence in Silence or Confusion?
- Gender Profiling
- Unequal Inequality
- Academic Tool Overconfidence?
- Why are there No Comforting Words that Aren’t also Factual Statements?
January 2007
- Prizes versus Grants
- Wanted: A Meta-Poll
- Excess Signaling Example
- Rationalization
- Against Admirable Activities
- Effects of Ideological Media Persuasion
- Galt on Abortion and Bias
- The Procrastinator’s Clock
- Keeping score
- Agree With Young Duplicate
- Sick of Textbook Errors
- Manipulating Jury Biases
- What Insight in Innocence?
- On Policy, Fact Experts Ignore Facts
- The Butler Did It, of Course!
- No Death of a Buyerman
- Is There Such a Thing as Bigotry?
- Moby Dick Seeks Thee Not!
- Morale Markets vs Decision Markets
- Follow Your Passion, From A Distance
- A Model of Extraordinary Claims
- Socially Influenced Beliefs
- Agree with Yesterday’s Duplicate
- Outside the Laboratory
- Symmetry Is Not Pretty
- Some Claims Are Just Too Extraordinary
- Women’s Mathematical Abilities
- Benefits of Cost-Benefit Analyis
- Godless Professors
- How to Not Spend Money
- Sometimes the Facts are Irrelevant
- 70 For Me, 30 For You
- Some People Just Won’t Quit
- Statistical Discrimination is (Probably) Bad
- Smoking Warning Labels
- Conclusion-Blind Review
- Is More Information Always Better?
- Should we Defer to Secret Evidence?
- Peaceful Speculation
- Supping with the Devil
- Disagree with Suicide Rock
- Biased Courtship
- Reject Your Personality’s Politics
- Epidemics are 98% Below Average
- Bias not a bug but a feature?
- A game for self-Calibration?
- Why Allow Referee Bias?
- Disagreement at Thoughts, Arguments and Rants
- Hobgoblins of Voter Minds
- How Are We Doing?
- Avoiding Truth
- Conspicuous Consumption of Info
- We Can’t Foresee To Disagree
- Do Biases Favor Hawks?
- Convenient Bias Theories
- Fair betting odds and Prediction Market prices
- The cognitive architecture of bias
- All Bias is Signed
- Two Cheers for Ignoring Plain Facts
- What if Everybody Overcame Bias?
- Discussions of Bias in answers to the Edge 2007 Question
- Why Don’t the Young Learn from the Old?
- The Coin Guessing Game
- A Honest Doctor, Sort Of
2006 79
December 2006
- Normative Bayesianism and Disagreement
- Vulcan Logic
- Benefit of Doubt = Bias
- See, But Don’t Believe
- The Future of Oil Prices 2: Option Probabilities
- Resolving Your Hypocrisy
- Academic Overconfidence
- Gnosishtml
- Ads that Hurt
- Gifts Hurt
- Advertisers vs. Teachers II
- Why Common Priors
- The Future of Oil Prices
- A Fable of Science and Politics
- A Christmas Gift for Rationalists
- When Truth is a Trap
- You Will Age And Die
- Contributors: Be Half Accessible
- “I don’t know.”
- You Are Never Entitled to Your Opinion
- A Decent Respect
- Why Not Impossible Worlds?
- Modesty in a Disagreeable World
- To Win Press, Feign Surprise
- Advertisers vs. Teachers
- When Error is High, Simplify
- Finding the Truth in Controversies
- Bias in Christmas Shopping
- Does the Modesty Argument Apply to Moral Claims?
- Philosophers on Moral Bias
- Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus
- Malatesta Estimator
- Fillers Neglect Framers
- The 80% Forecasting Solution
- Ignorance of Frankenfoods
- Do Helping Professions Help More?
- Should Prediction Markets be Charities?
- We Are Smarter Than Me
- Law as No-Bias Theatre
- The Modesty Argument
- Agreeing to Agree
- Time on Risk
- Leamer’s 1986 Idea Futures Proposal
- Alas Amateur Futurism
- The Wisdom of Crowds
- Reasonable Disagreement
- Math Zero vs. Political Zero
- Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers
- Seen vs. Unseen Biases
- Future Selves
- Does Profit Rate Insight Best?
- Bias, Well-Being, and the Placebo Effect
- Biases of Science Fiction
- The Proper Use of Humility
- The Onion on Bias: “Duh”
November 2006
- Macro Shares: Prediction Markets via Stock Exchanges?
- Thank you ma’am, may I have another?
- Beware of Disagreeing with Lewis
- In[]cautious defense of bias
- Pascalian Meditations
- Are The Big Four Econ Errors Biases?
- Surprisingly Friendly Suburbs
- Beware Amateur Science History
- …What’s a bias, again?
- Why truth? And…
- Asymmetric Paternalism
- To the barricades! Against … what exactly?
- Foxes vs Hedgehogs: Predictive Success
- What exactly is bias?
- Moral Overconfidence
- Why Are Academics Liberal?
- A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market
- The Martial Art of Rationality
- Beware Heritable Beliefs
- The wisdom of bromides
- The Movie “Click”
- Quiz: Fox or Hedgehog?
- Hide Sociobiology Like Sex?
- How To Join