The Curious Engineer

All blogs / AI / ML

Philipp D. Dubach

philippdubach.com

Independent writing and research on AI and markets: the economics of models and compute, quantitative finance, and macro.

AI / MLSociety / politics / economy

’25’26
Posts
97 from 21 May 2025 to 31 Oct 2026
Posting
weekly (91 in the last year)
Kind
personal blog
Feed
https://philippdubach.com/index.xml

2026 78

  1. Mario Draghi on Debt, Growth and Europe’s Future
  2. Does working less explain Europe’s GDP per capita gap with America?
  3. Forecasting Financial Markets with Timestral
  4. Maybe Don't ‘Kill the old’
  5. Building a tool to compare LLM benchmarks
  6. Eight + One Predictions for AI in 2030
  7. Perfect 100/100 Lighthouse score with Hugo and plain CSS
  8. The Future of Knowledge Inside the Enterprise
  9. A Buy in the Data, a Sell in the Model
  10. John Cochrane’s Lesson on Inflation
  11. How I turn my linkblog into a personalized podcast
  12. Maybe Meta Is Right About AI, or at Least Jeremy Stern Is
  13. Choosing a Model on the Pareto Frontier with Jev
  14. AI Consciousness Is Not a Safety Property
  15. Finding the Performance–Cost–Speed Sweet Spot With LLMs
  16. The OpenAI–Hugging Face Incident in Plain English
  17. Put the Model in the Basement
  18. I Tried Kimi K3 Inside Claude Code
  19. Krugman, Fable 5, and Europe in Decline?
  20. Degoogling cost me my YouTube feed, so I made my own
  21. Midyear Portfolio Review: Valuations got more extreme, not less
  22. How DORA Made Sovereignty a Bank Problem
  23. Aschenbrenner's Receipts
  24. Reconciling Enterprise AI Revenue
  25. What Claude Thinks But Doesn't Say
  26. Two Anthropics
  27. The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Notes from the Polymarket Order Book
  28. Karpathy's Software 3.0 Playbook
  29. Inside PRAGMA: Revolut's Foundation Model for Banking
  30. The Moral Philosophy of Investing in Ignorance
  31. Bet Sizing at the Frontier
  32. Do Not Disturb My Circles
  33. The Geometry of Who Knows What
  34. Why Lilly's Weight Loss Pill Isn't a Peptide
  35. Ambiguity by Design
  36. Three Kinds of Not-Knowing
  37. On-Device AI Models Will Be The New Reason to Upgrade Your Phone
  38. AI Can Now Design Drugs in Seconds; We Still Can't Tell You If They Work.
  39. The Last Architecture Designed by Hand
  40. MCP vs A2A in 2026: How the AI Protocol War Ends
  41. AI Models Are the New Rebar
  42. AI Capex Arms Race: Who Blinks First?
  43. 93% of Developers Use AI Coding Tools. Productivity Hasn't Moved.
  44. The Physics Department That Slowed Down
  45. Every Bulge Bracket Bank Agrees on AI
  46. When AI Labs Become Defense Contractors
  47. People Live in Levels, Not Rates
  48. Novo Was Europe's Most Valuable Company
  49. The Absolute Insider Mess of Prediction Markets
  50. Economics of a Super Bowl Ad
  51. The Impossible Backhand
  52. Europe's $24 Trillion Payment Breakup Is Really a Bet on Infrastructure Arbitrage
  53. Your Manager Is Not the Problem
  54. Long Volatility Premium
  55. The SaaSpocalypse Paradox
  56. Don't Go Monolithic; The Agent Stack Is Stratifying
  57. Where Mobile Money Goes Now
  58. Variance Tax
  59. Claude Opus 4.6: Anthropic's New Flagship AI Model for Agentic Coding
  60. Buying the Haystack Might Not Work This Year
  61. Bandits and Agents: Netflix and Spotify Recommender Stacks in 2026
  62. Is Private Equity Just Beta With a Lockup?
  63. Britain's Strategic Limbo
  64. The Rise of Middle Power Realism
  65. The Most Expensive Assumption in AI
  66. Enterprise AI Strategy is Backwards
  67. Big in Japan
  68. If you want to understand any society, look at what it creates
  69. Don't lie
  70. Ozempic is Reshaping the Fast Food Industry
  71. Real Foresight Looks Wrong
  72. Everything is amazing right now and nobody's happy
  73. Does AI mean the demand on labor goes up?
  74. Repo might be even bigger than we thought
  75. The Market Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent
  76. Beyond Vector Search: Why LLMs Need Episodic Memory
  77. Praise by Name, Criticize by Category: Warren Buffett Retires at 95
  78. Bitcoin Security

2025 19

  1. Apple's AI Bet: Playing the Long Game or Missing the Moment?
  2. Book Review: Why Machines Learn
  3. How AI is Shaping My Investment Portfolio for 2026
  4. Not Logan Roy: Netflix vs. Paramount's Bidding War
  5. Nike's Crisis and the Economics of Brand Decay
  6. Gratitude
  7. Michael Burry's $379 Newsletter
  8. Is AI Really Eating the World? AGI, Networks, Value [2/2]
  9. Is AI Really Eating the World? [1/2]
  10. Weather Forecasts Have Improved a Lot
  11. GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in ASUD Treatment
  12. AI Models as Standalone P&Ls
  13. Working with Models
  14. Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: Three Years Later [2/2]
  15. Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: The Framework [1/2]
  16. Everything is a DCF Model
  17. Agent-based Systems for Modeling Wealth Distribution
  18. Novo Nordisk's Post-Patent Strategy
  19. Dual Mandate Tensions