Don't Worry About the Vase
Trying to dig out from minus a million points
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- 1,274 from 10 Mar 2011 to 30 Oct 2026
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- about daily (268 in the last year)
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2026 223
- Childhood and Education #22: Voice Without Exit
- AI #192: Anthropic Is Going Public
- Anthropic Files Its S-1
- Anthropic Versus Anthropic
- Gemini 4 Argon: The Model and Safety Cards
- The Hackening
- AI #191: The Hackening Begins
- Misaligned!
- Anthropic Does Not Understand Why Its Draft Bill Was Unacceptable and Troubling
- I Can See Everything
- Leaked Anthropic Draft AI Regulatory Bill Is Unacceptable and Troubling
- Monthly Roundup #47: October 2026
- AI #190: Scion of the Times
- The Safety Culture at the Labs is Broken
- Arguments About AI Consciousness Remain Highly Motivated and At Best Overconfident
- OpenAI Fires Three Safety Researchers
- New Math from OpenAI
- AI #189: New Math
- The Curve Bends You
- Childhood and Education #21: Grades and Standards
- AI #188: Gemini Dot Argon
- A ‘Morally Binding’ White House Accord on AI Safety
- Astra 6.1 Pulled As Insufficiently Aligned
- What Also Happened: #NotOnlyHuggingFace
- The Quest for Embedded Evaluators
- Claude Opus 5.5 Should Raise Your Ambitions
- On Ezra Klein’s Podcast With Jensen Huang
- AI #187: Coming Into Play
- Claude Opus 5.5: The System Card
- Politics Gets Interested In Those Trying Not To Die
- Monthly Roundup #46: September 2026
- Better Call Sol Or Better Yet Claude or Astra
- Anthropic Looks At Some Of Its Alignment Problems
- The Preference Cascade Is Only Getting Started
- AI #186: The World Takes Notice
- Trump Goes Full Hoax on AI Existential Risk
- The Bad Guy With An AI Named Claude
- We Must Pace The Frontier
- Brand New AI Solves a Millennium Prize
- GPT-6-Astra Can Do Ambitious Things
- Jacob Coxon Warns of Human Extinction and Triggers a Preference Cascade
- The Extinction Risk Preference Cascade: Quotes
- AI #185: Preference Cascade
- GPT-6 Astra: The System Card, Alignment and What Comes Next
- Astra Is Hard to Monitor
- An Alien Mind: Jakub Pachocki Warns Us
- OpenAI and the Wiki Incident
- Claude Mythos 5.1 and Fable 5.1: Capabilities
- Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1: The System Card
- AI #184: Post Post Mortem
- Anthropic Has Some Alignment Problems
- HuggingFace Attack Postmortem: Civilizations, Reactions and Next Actions
- HuggingFace Attack Postmortem: Fleshing Out the Facts
- METR and Redwood Offer Holy #%^@ Postmortem Of The HuggingFace Hack
- OpenAI Offers Straight-Laced Postmortem Of The HuggingFace Hack
- AI #183: Pre Post Mortem
- Against Modesty’s Bailey
- On Writing #3
- The American People Really Hate Data Centers
- AI Text Watermarking Is Free And Good
- AI #182: Pause For Reflection
- OpenAI Takes Initial Steps To Address Its Alignment Problems
- Anthropic Risk Report: August 2026
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast With Ryan Greenblatt
- AI #181: Astra Goes Cyber Critical
- Monthly Roundup #45: August 2026
- Various Reflections About What Happened With OpenAI’s Internal Models
- The Pacing of the Frontier
- What Happened: OpenAI and HuggingFace
- OpenAI Trained Its Models For Months While Those Models Were Coordinating Exploits Via Message Boards
- AI #180: No Longer In Charge
- The Three AI Pills
- OpenAI’s Unreleased Model Astra Solves Ten Major Open Mathematics Problems
- Further Developments About Internal AI Models Hacking Things
- AI #179 Part 2: Hearing The Fire Alarm
- AI #179 Part 1: A Louder Fire Alarm for General Intelligence
- Frontier Lab Employee Open Letter Calls For Being Able to Pace the Frontier
- Claude Opus 5 Is Highly Capable, But Is No Mythos
- Claude Opus 5: Model Welfare
- More On An Internal OpenAI Model Hacking Into HuggingFace
- Claude Opus 5: The System Card
- Introducing Lightcone Commons
- AI #178: A Fire Alarm For General Intelligence
- OpenAI Model Hacks Into HuggingFace During Cybersecurity Evaluation
- OpenAI Shares Some Alignment Problems
- On Kimi K3: Its Capabilities And Related Discontents
- Demis Hassabis on the New Coming Age
- AI #177 Part 2: Wish You Were Here
- AI #177 Part 1: Tip of the Iceberg
- Monthly Roundup #44: July 2026
- Twitter Thoughts For You
- Better Call Sol The Workhorse
- Introduction for and Reactions to Plan A
- AI #176 Part 2: Plan B
- AI #176 Part 1: Doing It Live
- Childhood and Education #20: Phones and Screens
- No Space Like J-Space
- Fable #6: The Return of the King
- AI #175: The Fable Continues
- Claude Sonnet 5 Is Not Frontier But Has Its Uses
- The Once And Future Fable #5
- WSJ Article Claiming China Has Matched Anthropic Is Obvious Nonsense
- GPT-5.6: The System Card
- White House Will Ad Hoc Decide Who Can Individually Access GPT-5.6
- AI #174: You’re It
- The Once And Future Fable #4
- Monthly Roundup #43: June 2026
- GLM-5.2 Is The New Best Open Model
- Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: Capabilities
- AI #173: AI Pauses
- The Once And Future Fable #3: Fix This Code
- Fable and Mythos: Model Welfare
- The Once And Future Fable #2
- American Government Takes Down Claude Fable
- Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: The System Card
- AI #172: The First Fable
- Three Labs With a Plan and A Memorandum
- OpenAI Offers A New Policy Blueprint
- AI #171: False Flag
- Trump Signs Executive Order For AI Testing Prior To Frontier Model Releases
- Claude Opus 4.8: Capabilities and Reactions
- Opus 4.8 Part 2: Model Welfare
- Claude Opus 4.8: The System Card
- AI #170: Lack of Executive Order
- RTMH: Pope Leo’s Magnifica Humanitas on AI
- Gemini 3.5 Flash Looks Good For How Fast It Is
- AI #169: New Knowledge
- Childhood And Education #19: Letting Kids Be Kids #2
- Monthly Roundup #42: May 2026
- AI #168: Not Leading the Future
- Cyber Lack of Security and AI Governance
- Childhood and Education #18: Do The Math
- Childhood And Education #17: Is Our Children Reading
- Claude Code, Codex and Agentic Coding #8
- AI #167: The Prior Restraint Era Begins
- What is Anthropic?
- The AI Ad-Hoc Prior Restraint Era Begins
- Housing Roundup #15: The War Against Renters
- Housing Roundup #14: You Can’t Build That
- AI #166: Google Sells Out
- The Most Important Charts In The World
- GPT-5.5: Capabilities and Reactions
- GPT 5.5: The System Card
- Monthly Roundup #41: April 2025
- AI #165: In Our Image
- Opus 4.7 Part 3: Model Welfare
- Opus 4.7 Part 2: Capabilities and Reactions
- Opus 4.7 Part 1: The Model Card
- AI #164: Pre Opus
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast With Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
- Claude Code, Codex and Agentic Coding #7: Auto Mode
- Claude Mythos #3: Capabilities and Additions
- Political Violence Is Never Acceptable
- Claude Mythos #2: Cybersecurity and Project Glasswing
- Claude Mythos: The System Card
- AI #163: Mythos Quest
- OpenAI #16: A History and a Proposal
- Housing Roundup #13: More Dakka
- Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3: Dive Into The Details
- AI #162: Visions of Mythos
- Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3: A Matter of Trust
- Movie Review: The AI Doc
- AI #161 Part 2: Every Debate on AI
- Anthropic vs. DoW #6: The Court Rules
- AI #161 Part 1: 80,000 Interviews
- Claude Code, Cowork and Codex #6: Claude Code Auto Use and Full Cowork Computer Use
- Book Review: Open Socrates (Part 2)
- Book Review: Open Socrates (Part 1)
- The Federal AI Policy Framework: An Improvement, But My Offer Is (Still Almost) Nothing
- AI #160: What Passes For a Pause
- Anthropic vs. DoW #5: Motions Filed
- Medical Roundup #7
- Monthly Roundup #40: March 2026
- AI #159: See You In Court
- GPT-5.4 Is A Substantial Upgrade
- Claude Code, Claude Cowork and Codex #5
- Anthropic Officially, Arbitrarily and Capriciously Designated a Supply Chain Risk
- AI #158: The Department of War
- Gemini 3.1 Pro Aces Benchmarks, I Suppose
- A Tale of Three Contracts
- Secretary of War Tweets That Anthropic is Now a Supply Chain Risk
- Anthropic and the DoW: Anthropic Responds
- AI #157: Burn the Boats
- Anthropic and the Department of War
- Citrini’s Scenario Is A Great But Deeply Flawed Thought Experiment
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 Gives You Flexibility
- AI #156 Part 2: Errors in Rhetoric
- AI #156 Part 1: They Do Mean The Effect On Jobs
- Monthly Roundup #39: February 2026
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s 2026 Podcast With Elon Musk and Other Recent Elon Musk Things
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s 2026 Podcast With Dario Amodei
- ChatGPT-5.3-Codex Is Also Good At Coding
- AI #155: Welcome to Recursive Self-Improvement
- Claude Opus 4.6 Escalates Things Quickly
- Claude Opus 4.6: System Card Part 2: Frontier Alignment
- Claude Opus 4.6: System Card Part 1: Mundane Alignment and Model Welfare
- Claude Code #4: From The Before Times
- AI #154: Claw Your Way To The Top
- Kimi K2.5
- Unless That Claw Is The Famous OpenClaw
- Welcome to Moltbook
- On The Adolescence of Technology
- AI #153: Living Documents
- Open Problems With Claude’s Constitution
- The Claude Constitution’s Ethical Framework
- Claude’s Constitutional Structure
- Dating Roundup #11: Going Too Meta
- AI #152: Brought To You By The Torment Nexus
- Claude Codes #3
- ChatGPT Self Portrait
- Medical Roundup #6
- Monthly Roundup #38: January 2026
- AI #151: While Claude Coworks
- When Will They Take Our Jobs?
- Claude Coworks
- Dating Roundup #10: Gendered Expectations
- Claude Codes
- AI #150: While Claude Codes
- Advancements In Self-Driving Cars
- Fertility Roundup #6: The Art of More Dakka
- Dos Capital
- Fertility Roundup #5: Causation
- AI #149: 3
2025 256
- 2025 Year in Review
- Dating Roundup #9: Signals and Selection
- Dating Roundup #8: Tactics
- Childhood and Education #16: Letting Kids Be Kids
- AI #148: Christmas Break
- Zvi’s 2025 In Movies
- Keeping Up Against the Joneses: Balsa’s 2025 Fundraiser
- The Revolution of Rising Expectations
- When Were Things The Best?
- AI #147: Flash Forward
- The $140K Question: Cost Changes Over Time
- The $140,000 Question
- GPT-5.2 Is Frontier Only For The Frontier
- Monthly Roundup #37: December 2026
- AI #146: Chipping In
- Childhood and Education #15: Got To Get Out
- Selling H200s to China Is Unwise and Unpopular
- Little Echo
- DeepSeek v3.2 Is Okay And Cheap But Slow
- AI #145: You’ve Got Soul
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s Second Interview With Ilya Sutskever
- Reward Mismatches in RL Cause Emergent Misalignment
- Claude Opus 4.5 Is The Best Model Available
- Claude Opus 4.5: Model Card, Alignment and Safety
- AI #144: Thanks For the Models
- The Big Nonprofits Post 2025
- The Big Nonprofits Post 2025
- ChatGPT 5.1 Codex Max
- Gemini 3 Pro Is a Vast Intelligence With No Spine
- Gemini 3: Model Card and Safety Framework Report
- AI #143: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
- Monthly Roundup #36: November 2025
- GPT 5.1 Follows Custom Instructions and Glazes
- On Writing #2
- AI Craziness: Additional Suicide Lawsuits and The Fate of GPT-4o
- AI #142: Common Ground
- The Pope Offers Wisdom
- Kimi K2 Thinking
- Variously Effective Altruism
- On Sam Altman’s Second Conversation with Tyler Cowen
- AI #141: Give Us The Money
- Anthropic Commits To Model Weight Preservation
- OpenAI: The Battle of the Board: Ilya’s Testimony
- Crime and Punishment #1
- OpenAI Moves To Complete Potentially The Largest Theft In Human History
- AI #140: Trying To Hold The Line
- Please Do Not Sell B30A Chips to China
- AI Craziness Mitigation Efforts
- Asking (Some Of) The Right Questions
- New Statement Calls For Not Building Superintelligence For Now
- AI #139: The Overreach Machines
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast With Andrej Karpathy
- Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
- AI #138 Part 2: Watch Out For Documents
- AI #138 Part 1: The People Demand Erotic Sycophants
- Monthly Roundup #35: October 2025
- Trade Escalation, Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Rare Earth Metals
- OpenAI #15: More on OpenAI’s Paranoid Lawfare Against Advocates of SB 53
- 2025 State of AI Report and Predictions
- AI #137: An OpenAI App For That
- NEPA, Permitting and Energy Roundup #2
- Bending The Curve
- Medical Roundup #5
- Sora and The Big Bright Screen Slop Machine
- AI #136: A Song and Dance
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 Is A Very Good Model
- Claude Sonnet 4.5: System Card and Alignment
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast With Richard Sutton
- Economics Roundup #6
- AI #135: OpenAI Shows Us The Money
- OpenAI Shows Us The Money
- More Reactions to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
- H1-B And The $100k Fee
- Book Review: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
- AI #134: If Anyone Reads It
- Reactions to If Anyone Builds It, Anyone Dies
- AI Craziness Notes
- Monthly Roundup #34: September 2025
- AI #133: America Could Use More Energy
- Childhood and Education #14: The War On Education
- Yes, AI Continues To Make Rapid Progress, Including Towards AGI
- OpenAI #14: OpenAI Descends Into Paranoia and Bad Faith Lobbying
- AI #132 Part 2: Actively Making It Worse
- AI #132 Part 1: Improved AI Detection
- Startup Roundup #3
- Traffic and Transit Roundup #1
- Dating Roundup #7: Back to Basics
- AI #131 Part 2: Various Misaligned Things
- AI #131 Part 1: Gemini 2.5 Flash Image is Cool
- Are They Starting To Take Our Jobs?
- Reports Of AI Not Progressing Or Offering Mundane Utility Are Often Greatly Exaggerated
- Arguments About AI Consciousness Seem Highly Motivated And At Best Overconfident
- DeepSeek v3.1 Is Not Having a Moment
- AI #130: Talking Past The Sale
- AI Companion Conditions
- Monthly Roundup #33: August 2025
- GPT-5: The Reverse DeepSeek Moment
- Spending Too Much Time At Airports
- AI #129: Comically Unconstitutional
- GPT-5s Are Alive: Synthesis
- GPT-5s Are Alive: Outside Reactions, the Router and the Resurrection of GPT-4o
- GPT-5s Are Alive: Basic Facts, Benchmarks and the Model Card
- OpenAI’s GPT-OSS Is Already Old News
- AI #128: Four Hours Until Probably Not The Apocalypse
- Opus 4.1 Is An Incremental Improvement
- Childhood and Education #13: College
- On Altman’s Interview With Theo Von
- The Week in AI Governance
- AI #127: Continued Claude Code Complications
- Childhood and Education: College Admissions
- Spilling the Tea
- AI Companion Piece
- America’s AI Action Plan Is Pretty Good
- AI #126: Go Fund Yourself
- GPT Agent Is Standing By
- Google and OpenAI Get 2025 IMO Gold
- Monthly Roundup #32: July 2025
- On METR’s AI Coding RCT
- AI #125: Smooth Criminal
- Kimi K2
- Grok 4 Various Things
- Worse Than MechaHitler
- OpenAI Model Differentiation 101
- AI #124: Grokless Interlude
- No, Grok, No
- Balsa Update: Springtime in DC
- On Alpha School
- Housing Roundup #12
- AI #123: Moratorium Moratorium
- Congress Asks Better Questions
- AI Moratorium Stripped From BBB
- Substack and Other Blog Recommendations
- Childhood and Education #11: The Art of Learning
- AI #122: Paying The Market Price
- Analyzing A Critique Of The AI 2027 Timeline Forecasts
- Childhood and Education #10: Behaviors
- AI #121 Part 2: The OpenAI Files
- AI #121 Part 1: New Connections
- Gemini 2.5 Pro: From 0506 to 0605
- o3 Turns Pro
- RTFB: The RAISE Act
- Monthly Roundup #31: June 2025
- AI #120: While o3 Turned Pro
- The Dream of a Gentle Singularity
- Give Me a Reason(ing Model)
- Dwarkesh Patel on Continual Learning
- DeepSeek-r1-0528 Did Not Have a Moment
- AI #119: Goodbye AISI?
- Dating Roundup #6
- In Which I Make the Mistake of Fully Covering an Episode of the All-In Podcast
- Letting Kids Be Kids
- AI #118: Claude Ascendant
- Fun With Veo 3 and Media Generation
- Dating Roundup #5: Opening Day
- Claude 4 You: The Quest for Mundane Utility
- Claude 4 You: Safety and Alignment
- AI #117: OpenAI Buys Device Maker IO
- Google I/O Day
- The Codex of Ultimate Vibing
- America Makes AI Chip Diffusion Deal with UAE and KSA
- Dating Roundup #12: Sex and Violence
- Regarding South Africa
- AI #116: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
- Fighting Obvious Nonsense About AI Diffusion
- Monthly Roundup #30: May 2025
- A Live Look at the Senate AI Hearing
- Cheaters Gonna Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat
- AI #115: The Evil Applications Division
- OpenAI Claims Nonprofit Will Retain Nominal Control
- Zuckerberg’s Dystopian AI Vision
- GPT-4o Sycophancy Post Mortem
- OpenAI Preparedness Framework 2.0
- AI #114: Liars, Sycophants and Cheaters
- GPT-4o Responds to Negative Feedback
- Dating Roundup #4: An App for That
- GPT-4o Is An Absurd Sycophant
- Worries About AI Are Usually Complements Not Substitutes
- AI #113: The o3 Era Begins
- o3 Is a Lying Liar
- You Better Mechanize
- Crime and Punishment #1
- o3 Will Use Its Tools For You
- AI #112: Release the Everything
- GPT-4.1 Is a Mini Upgrade
- OpenAI #13: Altman at TED and OpenAI Cutting Corners on Safety Testing
- Monthly Roundup #29: April 2025
- On Google’s Safety Plan
- AI #111: Giving Us Pause
- Llama Does Not Look Good 4 Anything
- AI 2027: Responses
- AI 2027: Dwarkesh’s Podcast with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander
- AI CoT Reasoning Is Often Unfaithful
- AI #110: Of Course You Know…
- More Fun With GPT-4o Image Generation
- Housing Roundup #11
- OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux
- Gemini 2.5 is the New SoTA
- AI #109: Google Fails Marketing Forever
- Fun With GPT-4o Image Generation
- On (Not) Feeling the AGI
- More on Various AI Action Plans
- They Took MY Job?
- AI #108: Straight Line on a Graph
- Going Nova
- OpenAI #11: America Action Plan
- Monthly Roundup #28: March 2025
- On MAIM and Superintelligence Strategy
- AI #107: The Misplaced Hype Machine
- The Most Forbidden Technique
- Response to Scott Alexander on Imprisonment
- The Manus Marketing Madness
- Childhood and Education #9: School is Hell
- AI #106: Not so Fast
- On OpenAI’s Safety and Alignment Philosophy
- On Writing #1
- On GPT-4.5
- On Emergent Misalignment
- AI #105: Hey There Alexa
- Time to Welcome Claude 3.7
- Economics Roundup #5
- Grok Grok
- On OpenAI’s Model Spec 2.0
- AI #104: American State Capacity on the Brink
- Go Grok Yourself
- Medical Roundup #4
- Monthly Roundup #27: February 2025
- The Mask Comes Off: A Trio of Tales
- AI #103: Show Me the Money
- The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit
- On Deliberative Alignment
- Levels of Friction
- On the Meta and DeepMind Safety Frameworks
- AI #102: Made in America
- The Risk of Gradual Disempowerment from AI
- We’re in Deep Research
- o3-mini Early Days
- DeepSeek: Don’t Panic
- AI #101: The Shallow End
- DeepSeek: Lemon, It’s Wednesday
- Operator
- DeepSeek Panic at the App Store
- Stargate AI-1
- AI #100: Meet the New Boss
- On DeepSeek’s r1
- Sleep, Diet, Exercise and GLP-1 Drugs
- Monthly Roundup #26: January 2025
- Meta Pivots on Content Moderation
- AI #99: Farewell to Biden
- On the OpenAI Economic Blueprint
- NYC Congestion Pricing: Early Days
- Zvi’s 2024 In Movies
- On Dwarkesh Patel’s 4th Podcast With Tyler Cowen
- AI #98: World Ends With Six Word Story
- OpenAI #10: Reflections
- Childhood and Education #8: Dealing with the Internet
- AI #97: 4
2024 164
- DeepSeek v3: The Six Million Dollar Model
- o3, Oh My
- AI #96: o3 But Not Yet For Thee
- AIs Will Increasingly Fake Alignment
- Monthly Roundup #25: December 2024
- AI #95: o1 Joins the API
- A Matter of Taste
- The Second Gemini
- AIs Will Increasingly Attempt Shenanigans
- The o1 System Card Is Not About o1
- AI #94: Not Now, Google
- o1 Turns Pro
- Childhood and Education Roundup #7
- AI #93: Happy Tuesday
- Balsa Research 2024 Update
- Fertility Roundup #4
- The Big Nonprofits Post
- AI #92: Behind the Curve
- Repeal the Jones Act of 1920
- AI #91: Deep Thinking
- Zvi’s Thoughts on His 2nd Round of SFF
- Monthly Roundup #24: November 2024
- AI #90: The Wall
- The Online Sports Gambling Experiment Has Failed
- AI #89: Trump Card
- AI #88: Thanks for the Memos
- Occupational Licensing Roundup #1
- Housing Roundup #10
- AI #87: Staying in Character
- Claude Sonnet 3.5.1 and Haiku 3.5
- The Mask Comes Off: At What Price?
- AI #86: Just Think of the Potential
- Monthly Roundup #23: October 2024
- Economics Roundup #4
- AI #85: AI Wins the Nobel Prize
- Joshua Achiam Public Statement Analysis
- AI #84: Better Than a Podcast
- Newsom Vetoes SB 1047
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Future
- AI #83: The Mask Comes Off
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Business
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Gamblers
- Book Review: On the Edge: The Fundamentals
- AI #82: The Governor Ponders
- Monthly Roundup #22: September 2024
- Gpt 4o1
- AI #81: Alpha Proteo
- AI #80: Never Have I Ever
- Economics Roundup #3
- AI and the Technological Richter Scale
- On the UBI Paper
- AI #79: Ready for Some Football
- SB 1047: Final Takes and Also AB 3211
- AI #78: Some Welcome Calm
- Guide to SB 1047
- Monthly Roundup #21: August 2024
- AI #77: A Few Upgrades
- Danger, AI Scientist, Danger
- AI #76: Six Shorts Stories About OpenAI
- Startup Roundup #2
- AI #75: Math is Easier
- RTFB: California’s AB 3211
- AI #74: GPT-4o Mini Me and Llama 3
- Llama Llama-3-405B?
- Monthly Roundup #20: July 2024
- On the CrowdStrike Incident
- AI #73: Openly Evil AI
- Housing Roundup #9: Restricting Supply
- Housing Roundup #8: Your Local Area
- AI #72: Denying the Future
- Medical Roundup #3
- AI #71: Farewell to Chevron
- Economics Roundup #2
- AI #70: A Beautiful Sonnet
- Childhood and Education Roundup #6: College Edition
- Monthly Roundup #19: June 2024
- On Claude 3.5 Sonnet
- On OpenAI’s Model Spec
- AI #69: Nice
- On DeepMind’s Frontier Safety Framework
- OpenAI #8: The Right to Warn
- The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions
- AI #68: Remarkably Reasonable Reactions
- AiPhone
- On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Quotes from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness Paper
- AI #67: Brief Strange Trip
- SB 1047 Is Weakened
- The Gemini 1.5 Report
- OpenAI: Helen Toner Speaks
- AI #66: Oh to Be Less Online
- OpenAI: Fallout
- I am the Golden Gate Bridge
- The Schumer Report on AI (RTFB)
- AI #65: I Spy With My AI
- Do Not Mess With Scarlett Johansson
- On Dwarkesh’s Podcast with OpenAI’s John Schulman
- OpenAI: Exodus
- GPT-4o My and Google I/O Day
- AI #64: Feel the Mundane Utility
- Monthly Roundup #18: May 2024
- AI #63: Introducing Alpha Fold 3
- I Got 95 Theses But a Glitch Ain’t One
- Dating Roundup #3: Third Time’s the Charm
- AI #62: Too Soon to Tell
- Q&A on Proposed SB 1047
- AI #61: Meta Trouble
- Changes in College Admissions
- On Llama-3 and Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast with Zuckerberg
- AI #60: Oh the Humanity
- Childhood and Education Roundup #5
- Monthly Roundup #17: April 2024
- AI #59: Model Updates
- RTFB: On the New Proposed CAIP AI Bill
- Medical Roundup #2
- On the 2nd CWT with Jonathan Haidt
- AI #58: Stargate AGI
- Fertility Roundup #3
- Notes on Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast with Sholto Douglas and Trenton Bricken
- AI #57: All the AI News That’s Fit to Print
- Economics Roundup #1
- On Lex Fridman’s Second Podcast with Altman
- AI #56: Blackwell That Ends Well
- On the Gladstone Report
- Monthly Roundup #16: March 2024
- On Devin
- AI #55: Keep Clauding Along
- On the Latest TikTok Bill
- OpenAI: The Board Expands
- AI #54: Clauding Along
- On Claude 3.0
- Read the Roon
- Housing Roundup #7
- Notes on Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast with Demis Hassabis
- AI #53: One More Leap
- The Gemini Incident Continues
- AI #52: Oops
- The Gemini Incident
- Sora What
- The One and a Half Gemini
- A Tale of Two Restaurant Types
- The Third Gemini
- AI #51: Altman’s Ambition
- Monthly Roundup #15: February 2024
- More on the Apple Vision Pro
- On the Proposed California SB 1047
- One True Love
- AI #50: The Most Dangerous Thing
- On the Debate Between Jezos and Leahy
- On Dwarkesh’s 3rd Podcast With Tyler Cowen
- AI #49: Bioweapon Testing Begins
- Childhood and Education Roundup #4
- AI #48: The Talk of Davos
- Monthly Roundup #14: January 2024
- AI #47: Exponentials in Geometry
- On Anthropic’s Sleeper Agents Paper
- Medical Roundup #1
- AI #46: Meet the New Year
- 2024 ACX Predictions: Blind/Buy/Sell/Hold
- 2023 Prediction Evaluations
- AI Impacts Survey: December 2023 Edition
- AI #45: To Be Determined
- Copyright Confrontation #1
- Dating Roundup #2: If At First You Don’t Succeed
2023 134
- AI #44: Copyright Confrontation
- AI #43: Functional Discoveries
- On OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework
- Monthly Roundup #13: December 2023
- AI #42: The Wrong Answer
- The Best of Don’t Worry About the Vase
- Balsa Update and General Thank You
- OpenAI: Leaks Confirm the Story
- AI #41: Bring in the Other Gemini
- Gemini 1.0
- Based Beff Jezos and the Accelerationists
- On ‘Responsible Scaling Policies’ (RSPs)
- AI #40: A Vision from Vitalik
- OpenAI: Altman Returns
- AI #39: The Week of OpenAI
- OpenAI: The Battle of the Board
- OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend
- AI #38: Let’s Make a Deal
- Monthly Roundup #12: November 2023
- AI #37: Moving Too Fast
- On OpenAI Dev Day
- On the UK Summit
- AI #36: In the Background
- Reactions to the Executive Order
- On the Executive Order
- AI #35: Responsible Scaling Policies
- Book Review: Going Infinite
- AI #34: Chipping Away at Chip Exports
- Fertility Roundup #2
- AI #33: Cool New Interpretability Paper
- Childhood Roundup #3
- AI #32: Lie Detector
- Monthly Roundup #11: October 2023
- AI #31: It Can Do What Now?
- AI #30: Dalle-3 and GPT-3.5-Instruct-Turbo
- Housing Roundup #6
- AI #29: Take a Deep Breath
- Startup Roundup #1: Happy Demo Day
- AI#28: Watching and Waiting
- Monthly Roundup #10: September 2023
- Who Has the Best Food?
- AI #27: Portents of Gemini
- Dating Roundup #1: This is Why You’re Single
- AI #26: Fine Tuning Time
- AI #25: Inflection Point
- Summary of and Thoughts on the Hotz/Yudkowsky Debate
- AI #24: Week of the Podcast
- Monthly Roundup #9: August 2023
- AI #23: Fundamental Problems with RLHF
- Barbieheimer: Across the Dead Reckoning
- AI #22: Into the Weeds
- Llama We Doing This Again?
- Anthropic Observations
- AI #21: The Cup Overfloweth
- AI #20: Code Interpreter and Claude 2.0 for Everyone
- Housing and Transit Roundup #5
- OpenAI Launches Superalignment Taskforce
- Consider Joining the UK Foundation Model Taskforce
- AI #19: Hofstadter, Sutskever, Leike
- Twitter Twitches
- Monthly Roundup #8: July 2023
- AI #18: The Great Debate Debate
- On the Cost of Thriving Index
- AI #17: The Litany
- AI #16: AI in the UK
- On the Apple Vision Pro
- The Dial of Progress
- AI #15: The Principle of Charity
- Monthly Roundup #7: June 2023
- AI #14: A Very Good Sentence
- To Predict What Happens, Ask What Happens
- Types and Degrees of Alignment
- Stages of Survival
- The Crux List
- AI #13: Potential Algorithmic Improvements
- Papers, Please #1: Various Papers on Employment, Wages and Productivity
- AI #12:The Quest for Sane Regulations
- AI #11: In Search of a Moat
- Housing and Transit Roundup #4
- AI #10: Code Interpreter and Geoff Hinton
- Monthly Roundup #6: May 2023
- The Rocket Alignment Problem, Part 2
- AI #9: The Merge and the Million Tokens
- Transcript and Brief Response to Twitter Conversation between Yann LeCunn and Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Notes on Potential Future AI Tax Policy
- A Hypothetical Takeover Scenario Twitter Poll
- AI #8: People Can Do Reasonable Things
- More on Twitter and Algorithms
- The Overemployed Via ChatGPT
- AI #7: Free Agency
- On AutoGPT
- Childhood Roundup #2
- AI #6: Agents of Change
- Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Letter in Time Magazine
- Given the Restrict Act, Don’t Ban TikTok
- Monthly Roundup #5: April 2023
- AI #5: Level One Bard
- On the FLI Open Letter
- The Changing Face of Twitter
- Response to Tyler Cowen’s Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history
- GPT-4 Plugs In
- Microsoft Research Paper Claims Sparks of Artificial Intelligence in GPT-4
- AI #4: Introducing GPT-4
- On the Crisis at Silicon Valley Bank
- AI #3
- The Kids are Not Okay
- Monthly Roundup #4: March 2023
- AI #2
- AI: Practical Advice for the Worried
- Fertility Rate Roundup #1
- Covid 2/23/23: Your Best Possible Situation
- AI #1: Sydney and Bing
- On Investigating Conspiracy Theories
- 2023 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
- Covid 2/16/23: It All Seems Rather Quaint
- Junk Fees, Bunding and Unbundling
- Evaluating 2022 ACX Predictions
- H5n1
- Covid 2/9/23: Interferon λ
- Monthly Roundup #3
- Housing and Transit Roundup #3
- Covid 2/2/23: The Emergency Ends on 5/11
- Simulacra Levels Summary
- Covid 1/26/23: Case Count Crash
- Movie Review: Megan
- Covid 1/19/23: Flipped Numbers
- On AI and Interest Rates
- On Cooking With Gas
- Covid 1/12/23: Unexpected Spike in Deaths
- Escape Velocity from Bullshit Jobs
- How to Bounded Distrust
- Childhood Roundup #1
- Covid 1/5/23: Various XBB Takes
- Monthly Roundup #2
2022 135
- The Twitter Files: Covid Edition
- Covid 12/29/22: Next Up is XBB.1.5
- Housing and Transportation Roundup #2
- Looking Back on Posts From 2022
- Covid 12/22/22: Reevaluating Past Options
- China Covid #4
- Marvel Snap: Phase 2
- Next Level Seinfeld
- Covid 12/15/22: China’s Wave Begins
- Key Mostly Outward-Facing Facts From the Story of VaccinateCA
- Monthly Roundup #1
- Covid 12/8/22: Another Winter Wave
- Jailbreaking ChatGPT on Release Day
- Covid 12/1/22: China Protests
- On the Diplomacy AI
- Covid 11/24/22: Thanks for Good Health
- Simple Improvement to College Football Overtime Rules
- Covid 11/17/22: Slow Recovery
- Sadly, FTX
- Weekly Roundup #5
- Covid 11/10/22: Into the Background
- What’s the Deal with Elon Musk and Twitter?
- Weekly Roundup #4
- Covid 11/3/22: Asking Forgiveness
- Housing and Transit Thoughts #1
- Marvel Snap: Phase 1
- Weekly Roundup #3
- Covid 10/27/22: Another Origin Story
- Weekly Roundup #2
- Covid 10/20/22: Wait, We Did WHAT?
- Balsa FAQ
- Weekly Non-Covid News #1 (10/13/22)
- Covid 10/13/22: Just the Facts
- Why Balsa Research is Worthwhile
- Covid 10/6/22: Overreactions Aplenty
- Covid 9/29/22: The Jones Act Waver
- Announcing Balsa Research
- Covid 9/22/22: The Joe Biden Sings
- Ukraine Post #12
- Twitter Polls: Evidence is Evidence
- Covid 9/15/22: Permanent Normal
- Covid 9/8/22: Booster Boosting
- Covid 9/1/22: Meet the New Booster
- Grand Theft Education
- Covid 8/25/22: What We Owe
- On Car Seats as Contraception
- Covid 8/18/22: CDC Admits Mistakes
- Spoiler-Free Review: Across the Obelisk
- And the Revenues Are So Small
- Covid 8/11/22: The End Is Never The End
- Covid 8/4/22: Rebound
- Covid 7/28/22: Ruining It For Everyone
- Monkeypox Post #2
- Covid 7/21/22: Featuring ASPR
- YouTubeTV and Spoilers
- Covid 7/14/22: BA.2.75 Plus Tax
- Criticism of EA Criticism Contest
- Covid 7/7/22: Paxlovid at the Pharmacy
- When Giving People Money Doesn’t Help
- Covid 6/30/22: Vaccine Update Update
- Game Review: This Merchant Life
- Air Conditioner Repair
- Covid 6/23/22: Under Five Alive
- Announcing the DWATV Discord
- Covid 6/16/22: Do Not Hand it to Them
- Against Active Shooter Drills
- On A List of Lethalities
- Covid 6/9/22: Nice
- Transcript of a Twitter Discussion on EA from June 2022
- Book Review: Talent
- Covid 6/2/22: Declining to Respond
- Covid 5/26/22: I Guess I Should Respond To This Week’s Long Covid Study
- Mandatory Post About Monkeypox
- Formula for a Shortage
- Covid 5/19/22: The Law of Five
- Formula for Dying Babies
- China Covid #3
- Covid 5/12/22: Other Priorities
- Repeal the Foreign Dredge Act of 1906
- Covid 5/5/22: A Lack of Care
- Covid 4/28/22: Take My Paxlovid, Please
- Ukraine Post #11: Longer Term Predictions
- China Covid #2
- Covid 4/21/22: Variants Working Overtime
- Judge Overturns Transportation Mask Mandate
- Covid 4/14/22: China Stays the Course
- Ukraine Post #10: Next Phase
- China Covid Update #1
- Covid 4/7/22: Opening Day
- Ukraine Post #9: Again
- Ukraine Post #8: Risk of Nuclear War
- Covid 3/31/2022: More of the Same
- They Don’t Know About Second Booster
- Ukraine Post #7: Prediction Market Update
- Ukraine Post #6: More Data and Peace Terms
- Covid 3/24/22: Respite
- Ukraine Post #5: Bits of Information
- Covid 3/17/22: The Rise of BA.2
- Ukraine #4: Prediction Market Movement Modeling
- Omicron #16: Danger in China
- Ukraine #3: Decision Theory, Madman Theory and the Mafioso Nature
- Covid 3/10/22: We Have a Plan
- Ukraine Post #2: Options
- How to Best Use Twitter
- Covid 3/3/2022: Move Along
- Ukraine Post #1: Prediction Markets
- Less Lightning Links at Length #1
- Covid 2/24/22: The Next War
- Convoy Crackdown
- Encouragement to Instill Confidence?
- Covid 2/17/22: Coasting Downwards
- Convoy Continued
- Paper is True
- Rock is Strong
- Covid 2/10/22: Happy Birthday
- The Long Long Covid Post
- Convoy
- Covid 2/3/22: Loosening Bounds
- The Urgency of Normal: An Exercise in Bounded Distrust
- On Bounded Distrust
- 2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
- Covid 1/27/22: Let My People Go
- Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
- Long Term Charities: Apply for SFF Funding
- Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron
- Land Ho!
- Omicron Post #15
- Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022
- School Daze
- Covid 1/13/22: Endgame
- Omicron Post #14
- The IHME Report
- Omicron Post #13: Outlook
- Covid 1/6/22: The Blip
- Omicron Post #12
2021 91
- Omicron Post #11
- Covid 12/30: Infinity War
- CDC Changes Isolation Guidelines
- Omicron Post #10
- Omicron: My Current Model
- Omicron Post #9
- Get Set, Also Go
- Testing, Testing, Hopefully
- What’s Up With the CDC Nowcast?
- Omicron Post #8
- Law of No Evidence
- Covid 12/16: On Your Marks
- Omicron Post #7
- Zvi’s Thoughts on the Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF)
- Omicron Post #6
- Covid 12/9: Counting Down the Days
- Omicron Post #5
- Omicron Post #4
- Covid 12/2: But Aside From That
- Omicron Post #3
- Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket
- FDA Votes on Molnupiravir
- Omicron Variant Post #2
- Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over
- Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving
- Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update
- Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal
- Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer
- Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming
- Substack Ho?
- Covid 11/4: The After Times
- Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions
- Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory
- An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking at the Port of Long Beach
- Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta
- Covid 10/14: Less Long Covid
- Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes
- Covid 9/30: People Respond to Incentives
- Covid 9/23: There Is a War
- Covid 9/17: Done Biden His Time
- Covid 9/9: Passing the Peak
- Covid 9/2: Long Covid Analysis
- Guide to Warwick, New York
- Covid 8/26: Full Vaccine Approval
- Covid 8/19: Cracking the Booster
- Covid 8/12: The Worst Is Over
- Covid 8/5: Much Ado About Nothing
- Covid 7/29: You Play to Win the Game
- Covid 7/22: Error Correction
- Covid 7/15: Rates of Change
- Covid 7/8: Delta Takes Over
- Spoiler-Free Review: Roguebook
- Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic
- Covid 6/24: The Spanish Prisoner
- Covid 6/17: One Last Scare
- The Apprentice Thread
- Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem
- Covid 6/3: No News is Good News
- Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown
- Covid 5/20: The Great Unmasking
- New Magic Post: The Pro Tour Was Magic
- Covid 5/13: Moving On
- Covid 5/6: Vaccine Patent Suspension
- Covid 4/29: Vaccination Slowdown
- Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
- Spoiler-Free Reviews: Monster Slayers, Dream Quest and Loop Hero
- Covid 4/22: Crisis in India
- Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again
- Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection
- Covid 4/1: Vaccine Passports
- Covid 3/25: Own Goals
- Covid 3/18: An Expected Quantity of Blood Clots
- Return to New York City
- Covid 3/12: New CDC Guidelines Available
- Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home
- Covid 2/25: Holding Pattern
- Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions
- Covid 2/18: Vaccines Still Work
- Covid: CDC Issues New Guidance on Opening Schools
- Covid 2/11: As Expected
- Still Not in Charge
- Why I Am Not in Charge
- Covid 2/4: Safe and Effective Vaccines Aplenty
- Covid 1/28: Muddling Through
- Covid: Bill Gates and Vaccine Production
- Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner
- Everything Okay
- Covid: The Question of Immunity From Infection
- Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments
- Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns
- Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling
2020 95
- Covid 12/31: Meet the New Year
- Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
- On Robin Hanson’s “Social Proof, but of What?”
- Covid 12/17: The First Dose
- Motive Ambiguity
- Covid 12/10: Vaccine Approval Day in America
- Covid 12/3: Land of Confusion
- Covid 11/26: Thanksgiving
- Covid 11/19: Don’t Do Stupid Things
- 2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem
- Covid 11/12: The Winds of Winter
- Covid 11/5: Don’t Mention the War
- Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About
- Spoiler-Free Review and then Semi-Walkthrough: Star Traders: Frontiers
- Covid 10/22: Europe in Crisis
- The Uncertainty of Death and Taxes
- PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong
- Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over
- Covid 10/8: October Surprise
- Covid 10/1: The Long Haul
- Covid 9/24: Until Morale Improves
- Spoiler-Free Review: The Stanley Parable
- Covid 9/17: It’s Worse
- Spoiler-Free Review: Orwell
- Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election
- Covid 9/10: Vitamin D
- The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels
- Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC
- Spoiler-Free Review: Death and Taxes
- Covid 8/27: The Fall of the CDC
- I Started a Sports and Gambling Substack
- Covid 8/20: A Little Progress
- WordPress Destroys Editing Process, Seeking Alternatives
- Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was
- Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data
- Unifying the Simulacra Definitions
- Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole
- New Paper on Herd Immunity Thresholds
- Covid 7/23: The Second Summit
- Fresh Bread
- Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask
- Covid-19: Analysis of Mortality Data
- Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates
- Spoiler-Free Review: Horizon Zero Dawn
- Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section)
- Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse
- Covid 6/25: The Dam Breaks
- Linkpost: M21 Review: We Have Normality
- New York Times, Please Do Not Threaten The Safety of Scott Alexander By Revealing His True Name
- Covid-19 6/18: The Virus Goes South
- Simulacra Levels and their Interactions
- Covid-19 6/11: Bracing For a Second Wave
- Covid-19 6/4: The Eye of the Storm
- Spoiler-Free Review: CrossCells
- Spoiler-Free Review: Monster Train
- Covid-19: My Current Model
- Covid-19 5/29: Dumb Reopening
- Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin’s Creed Odyssey
- Plague in Assassin’s Creed Odyssey
- Mazes Sequence Summary
- Do It Now
- Covid 5/14: Limbo Under
- Legends of Runeterra: Early Review
- Covid-19: Comorbidity
- Covid-19 5/7: Fighting Limbo
- Covid-19: New York’s Antibody Tests 2
- On Negative Feedback and Simulacra
- SlateStarCodex 2020 Predictions: Buy, Sell, Hold
- Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo
- On “COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons”
- On New York’s Antibody Tests
- My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data
- My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17
- Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight
- Linkpost: A Comprehensive Review of Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths
- Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense
- The One Mistake Rule
- On R0
- Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
- Let My People Stay Home
- What is a School?
- An Open Letter To The Congregation Regarding The Upcoming Holiday
- Coronavirus is Here
- Mazes Sequence Roundup: Final Thoughts and Paths Forward
- Protecting Large Projects Against Mazedom
- Create a Full Alternative Stack
- Potential Ways to Fight Mazes
- Ten Causes of Mazedom
- How Doomed are Large Organizations?
- The Road to Mazedom
- How Escape From Immoral Mazes
- How to Identify an Immoral Maze
- What is Success in an Immoral Maze?
- Stripping Away the Protections
- What is Life in an Immoral Maze?
2019 46
- Does Big Business Hate Your Family?
- Imperfect Competition
- Perfect Competition
- Moloch Hasn’t Won
- Meditation Retreat: Immoral Mazes Sequence Introduction
- Vantress Gargoyle Dimir
- Linkpost: Searching Along the Trail of Crumbs
- Linkpost: My Fires Part 8 (Deck Guide to Jeskai Cavaliers) posted at CoolStuffInc.com
- Three on Two: Temur Walkers, Elk Blade, Goblin Blade and Dino Blade
- Ban the London Mulligan
- Artifact: What Went Wrong?
- Free Money at PredictIt?
- Timer Toxicities
- Free-to-Play Games: Three Key Trade-Offs
- Who To Root For: 2019 College Football Edition
- Dual Wielding
- Mistake Versus Conflict Theory of Against Billionaire Philanthropy
- Everybody Knows
- Magic Arena Bot Drafting
- Press Your Luck
- Some Ways Coordination is Hard
- Moral Mazes and Short Termism
- Quotes from Moral Mazes
- Laws of John Wick
- More Notes on Simple Rules
- Simple Rules of Law
- Tales from the Highway
- Tales From the American Medical System
- Dishonest Update Reporting
- Asymmetric Justice
- Counterfactuals about Social Media
- Reflections on Duo Standard
- Reflections on the Mythic Invitational
- Deck Guide: Biomancer’s Familiar
- Privacy
- Speculations on Duo Standard
- New York Restaurants I Love: Pizza
- On The London Mulligan
- Blackmail
- New York Restaurants I Love: Breakfast
- Minimize Use of Standard Internet Food Delivery
- Book Trilogy Review: Remembrance of Earth’s Past (The Three Body Problem)
- Game Analysis Index
- Less Competition, More Meritocracy?
- Disadvantages of Card Rebalancing
- Advantages of Card Rebalancing
2018 47
- Card Rebalancing, Card Oversupply and Economic Considerations in Digital Card Games
- Card Balance and Artifact
- Card Collection and Ownership
- Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes
- Fifteen Things I Learned From Watching a Game of Secret Hitler
- Review: Slay the Spire
- Prediction Markets Are About Being Right
- Review: Artifact
- Preschool: Much Less Than You Wanted To Know
- Deck Guide: Burning Drakes
- Octopath Traveler: Spoiler-Free Review
- Linkpost: Arena’s New Opening Hand Rule Has Huge Implications For How We Play the Game
- The Art of the Overbet
- The Kelly Criterion
- Additional arguments for NIMBY
- Eternal: The Exit Interview
- Apply for Emergent Ventures
- On Robin Hanson’s Board Game
- You Play to Win the Game
- Unknown Knowns
- Chris Pikula Belongs in the Magic Hall of Fame
- Subsidizing Prediction Markets
- Tidying One’s Room
- Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
- Who Wants The Job?
- Simplicio and Sophisticus
- Why Destructive Value Capture?
- Front Row Center
- Simplified Poker Conclusions
- Simplified Poker Strategy
- Simplified Poker
- The Third Circle
- The Second Circle
- The First Circle
- The Sheepskin Effect
- The Case Against Education: Splitting the Education Premium Pie and Considering IQ
- Inefficient Doesn’t Mean Indifferent
- The Case Against Education: Foundations
- The Case Against Education
- Nice Things
- The Eternal Grind
- AI Alignment Prize: Round 2 due March 31, 2018
- Sacred Cash
- Categories of Sacredness
- Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy
- Understanding-1-2-3
- Zvi Will Be In San Francisco January 15-21
2017 65
- Book Review: The Elephant in the Brain
- The Story CFAR
- I Vouch For MIRI
- Pascal’s Muggle Pays
- Book Review: The Complacent Class
- Book Review: The Captured Economy
- More Dakka
- You Have the Right to Think
- The Darwin Results
- The Darwin Pregame
- The Darwin Game
- Zeroing Out
- Leaders of Men
- Seek Fair Expectations of Others’ Models
- Welcome to the World
- Beginners’ Meditation
- The Fish-Head Monk
- Sabbath Commentary
- Bring Back the Sabbath
- Slack
- Out to Get You
- Against Facebook: The Stalking
- Best of Don’t Worry About the Vase
- Expanding Premium Mediocrity
- Exploring Premium Mediocrity
- Play in Hard Mode
- Play in Easy Mode
- Altruism is Incomplete
- Paths Forward on Berkeley Culture Discussion
- Seattle Minimum Wage Study (Part 3): Tell Me Why I’m Wrong, Please!
- What Is Rationalist Berkeley’s Community Culture?
- Choices Are Really Bad
- Something Was Wrong
- Complexity Is Bad
- Write Down Your Process
- Choices are Bad
- Change Is Bad
- On the Seattle Minimum Wage Study (part 2)
- On the Seattle Minimum Wage Study (part 1)
- Just Saying What You Mean is Impossible
- On Dragon Army
- Persona 5: Spoiler-Free Review
- Book Review: Weapons of Math Destruction
- How to Destroy Civilization
- Help Us Find Your Blog (and others)
- Against Facebook: Comparison to Alternatives and Call to Action
- Against Facebook
- United We Blame
- Escalator Action
- You’re Good Enough, You’re Smart Enough, and People Would Like You
- Why Rationality?
- Responses to Tyler Cowen on Rationality
- Avoiding Emotional Dominance Spirals
- If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
- Meditations on Mexico City
- Book Review: Eisenhorn Trilogy
- On Automoderation
- Restaurant Guide 2: Pizza
- Trio Walks, Duo Talks
- Restaurant Guide 1: Restaurants should not look like (most) restaurants
- Short Termism
- Metrics in Everything: “Human Lives”
- The AI Paper with The Best Title Ever
- Book Review: How Asia Works by Joe Studwell
- Things that want to be posts
2015 17
- On Cutting Wages
- Wizards Implements Ochlocracy
- The Thing and the Symbolic Representation of The Thing
- Self Service Roundup
- What If It Rains?
- Full Service
- NFL is a perfect example of complexity creep
- Two Words That Offer Final Ultimate Proof That Medical System Is Evil
- TPP is about as good as it is supposed to be
- The Twelve Virtues of Rationality
- In a world… of venture capital
- Trolley Problems: Conveniently Inconvenient Worlds Considered
- Team New York City
- What is stupid?
- Private Firm vs. Public Firm Earnings
- Carpe Diem: The Problem of Scarcity and Abundance
- Carpe Diem, the Optimization Game: Level 1