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Astral Codex Ten

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P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary. Click to read Astral Codex Ten, by Scott Alexander, a Substack publication.

Essays / personalSociety / politics / economyAI / MLScience

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1,502 from 30 Aug 2020 to 30 Oct 2026
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Latest

October 2026

  1. Your Book Review: The History And Adventures Of An Atom
  2. Links For October 2026
  3. My California Ballot, 2026
  4. Open Thread 457
  5. Your Book Review: The Ghost In My Brain
  6. San Francisco Meetup This Saturday
  7. Why Global Trepanation?
  8. Against Against Handover
  9. Open Thread 456
  10. Your Book Review: Storm Of Steel
  11. Meetups Everywhere 2026: Times & Places
  12. AI Safety Is Not A Corporate Plot
  13. Open Thread 455
  14. Your Book Review: We Present Television
  15. Ballots Everywhere: Times & Places
  16. Top Forecasters On The Plague
  17. Hidden Open Thread 454.5
  18. An Open Letter To Steven Pinker On AI
  19. Open Thread 454
  20. Our AI Midwife

September 2026

  1. Open Thread 453
  2. Your Book Review: Lee Kuan Yew's Memoirs
  3. Fall Meetups 2026 - Call For Meetup Organizers
  4. The Specter Of Neuralese
  5. Does Georgism Work? Five Years Later
  6. Hidden Open Thread 452.5
  7. Mysteries Of AI Generalization
  8. Open Thread 452
  9. Your Book Review: This Is Going To Hurt
  10. AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
  11. King Ludd
  12. Open Thread 451
  13. Royce On San Francisco
  14. God Help Us, Let’s Try To Learn About Mechanistic Interpretability Techniques
  15. Open Thread 450
  16. Your Book Review: The Tale Of Genji
  17. College EA Meetups Everywhere: Times & Places
  18. Absurd Adventure And Amygdalectomy Advocacy
  19. Nicholas Decker In Hell

August 2026

  1. Open Thread 449
  2. Your Book Review: Thomas Urquhart’s Translation Of Rabelais
  3. Hidden Open Thread 448.5
  4. Take The 2026 ACX Survey
  5. Highlights From The Comments On The Substack Religion Debate
  6. Re: Re: Re: Pritchard On Liberal Happiness
  7. Open Thread 448
  8. Your Book Review: A Residence Of 21 Years In The Sandwich Islands
  9. College EA Meetups Everywhere: Call For Organizers
  10. Why I'm Staying Out Of The Substack Religion Debate
  11. Open Thread 447
  12. Your Book Review: The Escape Artist
  13. The Foothills Of Bay Area House Party
  14. The Quest For Caffeine You Can Have At Night
  15. Open Thread 446
  16. MacGregor The Bridge Builder
  17. Open Questions On Open Weights
  18. Hidden Open Thread 445.5
  19. The Beauty Of Settled Science
  20. Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top?
  21. Open Thread 445

July 2026

  1. Your Book Review: The Epic Of Gilgamesh
  2. Links For July 2026 (Part 2)
  3. Highlights From The Discourse On The Hugging Face Incident
  4. Hidden Open Thread 444.5
  5. Psychology Research Is Mostly Fine
  6. Open Thread 444
  7. Your Book Review: Breakdown In Pakistan
  8. The Hugging Face Incident
  9. Links For July 2026 (Part 1)
  10. Contra Pritchard On Liberal Happiness
  11. Open Thread 443
  12. Your Book Review: Great And Desperate Cures
  13. Against "Stochastic Terrorism"
  14. Six Slightly Skew Boogeymen
  15. AI Chip Regulation Is Not A Dystopian Surveillance State
  16. Open Thread 442
  17. Introducing Plan A
  18. Your Book Review: The Book Of Abraham
  19. Open Thread 441
  20. The AI Superforecasters Are Here
  21. Hidden Open Thread 440.5
  22. Chip Off The Old Block

June 2026

  1. Open Thread 440
  2. The Metaculus Democracy Threat Index
  3. Hidden Open Thread 439.5
  4. Should People Avoid Whole-Body Screening Info?
  5. Open Thread 439
  6. Preliminary Thoughts On The Midjourney Scanner
  7. Waiting For The Miracle
  8. Never Cross a River Four Feet Deep on Average
  9. Open Thread 438
  10. My AI Opinions
  11. Hidden Open Thread 437.5
  12. Berkeley Meetup This Wednesday
  13. Open Thread 437
  14. Choose Book Review Finalists 2026
  15. Open Thread 436

May 2026

  1. Book Review: The Dialectical Imagination
  2. Hidden Open Thread 435.5
  3. Use AI This Election
  4. Open Thread 435
  5. New Paradigms Won't Save You
  6. Hidden Open Thread 434.5
  7. The Types Of Candidate You Find In The California Gubernatorial Race
  8. Open Thread 434
  9. The Sigmoids Won't Save You
  10. Every Magazine Piece On The SF AI Scene
  11. Nostalgebraist's Hydrogen Jukeboxes
  12. Open Thread 433
  13. Three Model Organisms For Taste
  14. Contra Everyone On Taste
  15. Hidden Open Thread 432.5
  16. Open Thread 432

April 2026

  1. What Deontological Bars?
  2. Your Attempt To Solve Debate Will Not Work
  3. Open Thread 431
  4. Links For April 2026
  5. Half A Month Of Consolation Writing Advice
  6. Open Thread 430
  7. Orban Was Bad, Even Though We Don't Have A Perfect Word For His Badness
  8. Open Thread 429
  9. Open Thread 428.5 + Zagreb Update
  10. Zagreb Meetup This Friday
  11. Open Thread 428
  12. The PauseAI Protest: A Photo-Essay
  13. Hidden Open Thread 427.5
  14. Meetups Everywhere Spring 2026: Times & Places

March 2026

  1. Against The Concept Of Telescopic Altruism
  2. Open Thread 427
  3. A Buddhist Sun Miracle?
  4. Book Review: The White King Of La Gonave
  5. Hidden Open Thread 426.5
  6. How Natural Tradeoff And Failure Components?
  7. Every Debate On Pausing AI
  8. Open Thread 426
  9. Being John Rawls
  10. Hidden Open Thread 425.5
  11. Support Your Local Collaborator
  12. Shameless Guesses, Not Hallucinations
  13. Open Thread 425
  14. Spring Meetups Everywhere 2026 - Call For Organizers
  15. Hidden Open Thread 424.5
  16. Lines Composed In A Fake Sequoia Forest
  17. Last Rights
  18. Open Thread 424
  19. SEIU Delenda Est
  20. Open Hidden Open Thread 423.5
  21. Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day
  22. Open Thread 423
  23. "All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know

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