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Grey Enlightenment
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- Posts
- 3,329 from 11 Mar 2014 to 29 Oct 2026
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- about daily (184 in the last year)
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- personal blog
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Latest
October 2026
- The brain-body gap explanation for obesity
- Average Is Over: Why AI Won’t Upend the Social Order
- The AI buildout is sustainable
- AI Keeps Getting Better. Why Is Its Writing Still So Bad?
- Why Defrauding the Wealthy Worked for Elizabeth Holmes
- Math: You Can’t Demand Novelty and Then Complain About AI
- The Online Right’s Democratic Grievances
- The cope of “replaced by AI”
- The Nuance the Math Debate Is Missing
- The proof is in the prompt: why math is not going away
- Smart People Cram Too.
- Elite Grads Aren’t Impressive. Compared to What?
- What the College Preparedness Debate Misses
- Book Smarts vs. “Streamer Smarts”: Who Called Tariffs, Iran, and Maduro Right?
September 2026
- The Scott Alexander v. Steven Pinker AI debate
- AI Is the Uber Moment for Mathematics
- Breaking Kayfabe
- Meta and Bitcoin Recover: Why I’m Still Right
- Go ahead and major in computer science
- AI Helps People Get Past the Blank Page
- When it comes to AI job-loss forecasts, it’s time to put up or shut up
- The Clarity Act dies–right again
- The final frontier for AI: writing
- How much of “write simply” is just survivorship bias?
- The daily view 9/10/2026 Polymarket huge Iran win, AI vs Writing, AI vs Math, and Hedging
- The Optimality Thesis: Why America Doesn’t Need a Smart President
- The daily view 9/6/2026: No mass unemployment due to AI, Nike’s downfall , AI and cheating
- Buying tech and shorting Bitcoin as a play on “power dynamics”
- The Cope of Predicting Higher Ed’s Death
August 2026
- The daily view: 8/31/2026: Bitcoin recovery, Pangram, Polymarkat & Iran, and elite colleges
- Tax windfalls are not wealth: debunking a myth
- Richard Hanania and the Myth of the Inevitable Debt Crisis
- Andrew Tate’s sports cars are rented–so what?
- AI-assisted writing is common because writing is hard
- There Is No AI Math Crisis
- It’s time to quit the “war on cancer”
- AI-generated writing: it’s still bad
- Maybe Dieting Fails Because Humans Need Fewer Calories Than We Think
- There is no mainstream or alternative: it’s all just “content”
- “Nostalgia maxxing:” why can’t we leave the past
- The Daily View 8/10/2026: Attention, Shrinkflation, Truth Social API, …
- The are no good options for “affordability”
- The debate over math and AI–why mathematicians are still needed and valued
- The crypto industry lost.
- The information deluge, and human capital boom
July 2026
- Leopold Aschenbrenner blows up
- The “memory shortage” that no one saw coming
- The AI Experts Who Couldn’t Predict AI
- The Long-Form Content Boom No One’s Talking About
- The Daily View 7/22/2026: Iran, Polymarket, Math, AI & Job Loss, Trump
- The Jacobian conjecture falls to AI
- Andrew and Tristan Tate arrested in Florida
- Why European-Style Policing Doesn’t “Work” in the US
- Elite Colleges Will Survive AI. The Rest Need to Adapt.
- Healthcare Is Expensive Because Americans Expect So Much from It
- The Daily View 7/11/2026: Superforecasters , Iran, and AI & Cheating in College
- Why It Can Be True That Students Are Both Smarter and Less Prepared
- The TV Addict Who Became a Macro Forecaster
- Why we cannot have nice things
- Trump Profiting from Crypto Is Not Corruption
June 2026
- The Gospel of Gains: How Fitness Culture Went Mainstream
- AI is not going to make mathematicians obsolete
- The Daily View 6/25/2026: Bitcoin @$58k, MicroStrategy collapse, Reflecting pool, AI…
- The Weight-Loss Revolution People Didn’t Want
- The Surprisingly Small Ambitions of Billionaires
- The Iran Deal That Won’t Happen
- Why Eminence Is a Bad Measure of Intelligence
- Enough with the hype about underwhelming or speculative cancer treatments
- Cope and Elon’s wealth (why cant we just admit being a billionaire is great)
- What Happened to the AI Job Crisis?
- Why Some Smart People Appear Ordinary Until Adulthood
- Freddie’s gatekeeping
- The daily view 6/5/2026: IQ, Berkeley math, Affordability, AI and Jobs, AI Bubble…
- Why human behavior is not as unpredictable/random as assumed
- The Daily View 6/2/2026: Bitcoin crashes, Iran, Job Openings
May 2026
- Thinness, Status, and Coping (why it’s okay to admit that being thin is good)
- Another day, another deal
- Why Everyone Feels Like They’re Losing
- Profiting from Iran and Polymarket
- Why anecdotal evidence is better than studies
- AI will not hurt the signaling value of elite colleges
- AI job loss predictions keep being wrong
- AI Didn’t Break College. It Exposed What College Already Was
- Debunking the claim that the “FDA is holding back cancer cures”
- The importance of having an information advantage at trading
- How the Mainstream Media Came to Sound like Zero Hedge/Info Wars
- Shorting BTC to hedge the stock market, part 2 , Free hedging with STRC
- Iran, oil, and stocks: taking a victory lap
- People turning to gambling or fraud in response to rigged/unfair system
- On the stubborn attachment to wrong ideas
April 2026
- The Daily View 4/30/2026: Stocks ignore oil prices, GLP-1s and Walmart, and Blackpilling
- Cole Tomas Allen: Why There Is No Profile for Premeditated Violence
- “Slow Metabolism” May Help Explain High Dieting Failure Rates
- U.S. Soldier Charged in Insider Trading Case: A Convenient Fall Guy Amid Widespread Fraud
- AI-based unemployment and UBI: my thoughts
- The daily view: Iran blockade, AI and labor, Palantir’s bad manifesto
- Optimality, revisited
- The ‘MAGA divorce’ does not matter
- The Trump-Jesus non-controversy
- Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade, Bitcoin crashes
- Trump: diplomacy by delay
- America is becoming smarter and dumber at the same time
- The daily view 4/6/2026: Iran, Metabolism, Wealth & Status, Downwardly-mobile American young people
- AI Changes Everything–and Nothing
- Why successful people often have bad opinions online
March 2026
- Update on Iran: Why I remain bullish on stocks and bearish on Bitcoin
- Insider trading with Truth Social and form capture
- How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich?
- The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, possibly until 2028
- A ground invasion of Iran would not be as unpopular as commonly assumed
- Bad leadership as the default
- Why the Minnesota Starvation Experiment Doesn’t Generalize to Modern Dieting
- To flout or flaunt IQ? Choose the second.
- No, Matt Walsh, the use of AI in writing is perfectly fine
- Foreign policy takes precedence over domestic issues.
- The problem with studies and extrapolating ‘old data’ to the present
- Debunking common assumptions, part 1
- Right again: Trump approval ratings stable after strikes
- Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund: dispelling the hype
- MAGA and its discontents
- Iran and Anthropic: My Thoughts
February 2026
- The rise of the lock-in guy
- Taleb & Charles Murray about IQ and College
- What AI can and cannot do
- SCOTUS strikes down (some) Trump tariffs
- The stock market and forecasting as an IQ test
- AI still sucks at rendering stock charts
- The “Highlight Reel” Myth of Social Media
- Costco and theft
- Prediction markets, and the mobilization of decentralized talent
- The problem with blaming ‘ultra-processed’ foods for obesity
- “Wealth inflation” has led to “elite overproduction”
- Right again: Bitcoin the victory lap edition
- The strivers were right all along
- ‘America First’ is more about making America like the EU
January 2026
- The Daily View 1/30/2026: Silver Crash, Bitcoin Crash, AGI hedge, Epstein, Iran…
- Eating out of boredom isn’t really a thing
- The daily view: Silver Surges as Bitcoin Keeps Falling , Bad Advice/Bullshit,
- The Killing of Alex Pretti: We’re Living in Trump’s America
- Prediction markets and insider trading
- Claims of Trump Having Dementia are Unfounded
- Trump tariffs victory lap
- Scott Alexander on Scott Adams
- A tariff is not a tax
- Obesity and SNAP: the overlooked IQ connection
- The Daily View 1/12/2026: Bitcoin Party is Over, IQ Threshold Effects, ‘MAHA’ food guidelines
- Math vs Writing: difficulty and threshold effects
- “Why are white-collar jobs so resilient , even with AI?”
- Coffeezilla: the most overrated scam investigator
- U.S. Strikes Venezuela, Maduro Deposed: My thoughts
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