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Tomasz Tunguz
Venture capitalist and former Google PM sharing data-driven insights on building successful startups. Join 100K+ founders and investors learning about tech & SaaS.
- Posts
- 1,896 from 26 Feb 2010 to 29 Oct 2026
- Posting
- about daily (195 in the last year)
- Kind
- personal blog
- Feed
- https://tomtunguz.com/index.xml
- Also at
- https://tomasztunguz.com/
Latest
October 2026
- Crossing the Trillion Dollar Chasm
- Beyond Automation at OpenAI
- Anthropic S-1 Analysis: How 7 Key Metrics Stack Up
- The Third Product-Market Fit in AI
- How Large is the AI Circle?
- Closing Eight Figure Deals in Two Weeks
- The GPU Revenue Ladder
- What if They're All Clouds?
- Price War in the Chip Aisle
- The Theory 2026 AI Survey Results
- Sales in the Age of AI
- A Change in AI Strategy
- How to Automate Inbound
- Inference Is the Most Important Market in Software
- Do We Grow Software or Do We Design It?
September 2026
- The Fastest Growing Market in Tech isn't AI
- Segmentation Drives Market Share Wins in AI
- How GPU Prices Can Double While AI Gets Cheaper
- Thinking in Systems, Shipping in Loops
- The Most Important Market in AI is the Middle
- AI Comes for the If Statement
- The Harness Margin Opportunity
- When Inbound Sells Itself
- What Does Pacing Mean?
- Is the 3x AI Productivity Gain just a Computer that Never Sleeps?
- The Three Waves of AI Consumption
- Concrete, Silicon, & Leverage
- The Ads Model for Prompts Vertically Integrates AI
- AI Productivity Doesn't Mean What I Thought It Means
August 2026
- The Price of Entry to the Frontier
- Revenue per Megawatt & The AI Model Factory
- NVIDIA's $108b Quarter
- How Long Should an AI Agent Live?
- The AI Bullwhip
- Mainframes became personal. So will your data center.
- Previously Unmanufacturable
- Birds Don't Fly Like Planes. Neither Does AI.
- When Models Learn
- Honestly, Who Buys SOTA?
- The OpenAI Hack & the Question of Intent
- A Winner in Every Category
- AI Harness' ARR Multiples
- The Secret Chat Room
- Spending Like a Hyperscaler
- Racing to Sustain Jevons' Paradox
- AI is a Terrible Ghostwriter
July 2026
- AWS's Road to a Trillion
- Microsoft Resells the Frontier
- Aftermarket Harnesses
- Yeltsin in the AI Aisle
- Google's Cloud Revenue Converges to NVIDIA's Growth Rate
- AI Engineering Productivity is Anything But Normal
- Open Models Tack Toward the Frontier
- The Blank Slate AI Strategy
- The Harness Is the New Battleground
- The AI Colander
- Three Years In
- 8.9 Million AI Users
- The AI Preflight Check
- The $10B FDE Boom
- AI Worldviews
- Most AI Work Can Wait
June 2026
- The CIO's Choices are Clear in 2026
- When AI Costs More Than the Engineer
- What If There Is No Moat Yet?
- Full Sail on Asynchronous Inference
- Defending Against AI-Powered Attackers
- The Quietest Part of Startupland isn't so Quiet
- So You Want to Sell Inference
- Databricks Widens the Lead on the Yellow Brick Token Path
- 5x for Free : The Local Coding Stack
- The Golden Age of AI Applications
- A CEO's Cost of Capital Advantage
- The AI Glass Ceiling
- The Substitution Wave in AI
- The Minimill of AI
- Local in Reality
- Intelligence Per Dollar
- The Thriving Ecosystem of Open Models
- The AI Skepticism Map
May 2026
- Skill Distillation
- Security in the Age of AI Agents: Office Hours with Jonathan Jaffe
- Software After AI
- Agent Gravity : Who's Running Your Agents
- Plastic User Interfaces
- SpaceX's Limitless Ambition : An AI Conglomerate
- SpaceX S-1: Project Apex and the $1.75T Conglomerate
- SpaceX's Confidential S-1 - The $2 Trillion Rocket Ship
- The Unsustainable Subsidy
- Observations on Writing with AI
- The First Derivative of Inference
- What Would AI Email Cost?
- The 6 Messages That Actually Matter
- 2026 Theory GTM Survey
- Localmaxxing
- Securing the Agentic Enterprise
- AI at Discount
- Optimizing Software Factories
- All the AI You Need for 8 Ads per Day
- This Week's Sign the Apocalypse Isn't Upon Us
April 2026
- The $112 Billion Quarter
- Timing Cashflows of Your Sales Commissions and Your Customers
- Darwinian Specialization in AI
- Reorganizing Your SaaS Startup's Organizational Structure to Optimize the Customer Lifecycle
- An Often Forgotten Characteristic About Your Startup's Ideal Customer Profile
- The Three Questions in AI Sales
- GPU Spot Prices Surge 114% in Six Weeks
- Technical Schematics: AI Tool Evolution
- Competitive Strategy in the Age of AI
- Intelligence About Business
- A $10 Billion Call Option
- A Proactive System of Intelligence for Security
- The Beginning of Scarcity in AI
- Founders, Equip Your Agents
- The AI Problem Matrix
- Emerging from the Mythos
- Pocket Power : From State of the Art to Your Phone in 23 Months
- Tokenmaxxing
March 2026
- Marketing in the Agentic Era
- Veblen & Jevon Walk Into a Data Center
- A New Axis of Competition
- AI's Bundling Moment
- Cursor, Kimi & the Open Source Imperative
- The Pricing Power of Agents
- The Robotic Tortoise & the Robotic Hare
- The 12x Bet on AI
- Hello, Claude? Are You There?
- One Billion Lost Packages
- The Marginal Hire
- The Org Chart Math Behind AI-Native Speed
- Is This Tomasz's Agent?
- The Sword of Damocles in Software
- Data Center Intelligence at the Price of a Laptop
- Not Prompts, Blueprints
- Would You Buy Generic AI?
- Databricks Overtakes Snowflake
February 2026
- The Game on the Field Has Changed
- Is AI Doing Less & Less?
- Why Saudi Aramco Isn't a Proxy for SpaceX
- AdSense for AI
- SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPOs : A $3 Trillion Stress Test
- 9 Observations from Building with AI Agents
- A Third, A Third, A Surprising Third
- Will I Be Paid in Tokens?
- The AI Acqui-Hire Wave
- The 2026 Rotation
- Can You Fly That Thing?
- How Markets Price AI Risk
- Google's 52x AI Growth
- The Other Leverage in Software & AI
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