2020
1,843 posts
2020 1,843
December 2020
- December 31 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Question #4 for 2021: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020) , or will it will only partially recover in 2021?
- Question #5 for 2021: Will the core inflation rate increase in 2021? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2021?
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 33.0% Year-over-year, 2020 Worst Year on Record
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 787,000
- December 30 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in November
- Question #6 for 2021: Will the Fed raise rates in 2021? What about the asset purchase program?
- Question #7 for 2021: How much will RI increase in 2021? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2021?
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 2.6% in November
- Wednesday: Pending Home Sales
- December 29 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Nothing Short of Remarkable", 9.5% YoY in November
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October
- Question #8 for 2021: What will happen with house prices in 2021?
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 8.4% year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- December 28 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Question #9 for 2021: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands at a Faster Pace" in December
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- December 27 COVID-19 Test Results; Expected dip in the data over the holidays
- Question #10 for 2021: How much damage did the pandemic do to certain sectors?
- December 26 COVID-19 Test Results; Be Careful with Holidays Numbers
- Schedule for Week of December 27, 2020
- December 25 COVID-19 Test Results; Holiday Decline in Numbers
- Ten Economic Questions for 2021
- A Christmas Present for UberNerds
- December 24 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 26.4% Year-over-year
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2020
- December 23 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, December Now Deadliest Month
- A few Comments on November New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decrease to 841,000 Annual Rate in November
- Personal Income decreased 1.1% in November, Spending decreased 0.4%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 803,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income & Outlays and more
- December 22 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Record 7-Day Deaths
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in November
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 3.4% YoY
- Comments on November Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.69 million in November
- Q3 GDP Growth Revised up slightly to 33.4% Annual Rate
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Q3 GDP
- December 21 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Record 7-Day Deaths
- December Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Rise Slightly from November"; Annual Sales Down 16% from 2019
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.49%"
- Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Slightly Above-Average Growth in November"
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in November
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- December 20 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths
- Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
- December 19 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths
- Schedule for Week of December 20, 2020
- December 18 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths, Record Hospitalizations
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
- Update: 2021 Housing Forecasts
- Q4 GDP Forecasts
- BLS: November Unemployment rates down in 25 States, Higher in 7 States
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
- December 17 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases and Deaths, Record Hospitalizations
- Comments on November Housing Starts
- CAR on California November Housing: Sales up 26% YoY, Active Listings down 47% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 37.4% Year-over-year
- Philly Fed Manufacturing "growth was less widespread" in December, Kansas City Fed "Activity Expanded Further"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 885,000
- Housing Starts increased to 1.547 Million Annual Rate in November
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- December 16 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths, Hospitalizations
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Change
- AIA: "Architecture billings lose ground in November"
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 86 in December
- Retail Sales decreased 1.1% in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Confidence, FOMC Statement
- December 15 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths, Hospitalizations
- LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in November
- Denver Real Estate in November: Sales Up 18% YoY, Active Inventory Down 63%
- Industrial Production Increased 0.4 Percent in November; 5% Below Pre-Crisis Level
- NY Fed: Manufacturing: Business activity "edged slightly higher" in New York State in December
- Tuesday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg
- December 14 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases and Deaths, Record Hospitalizations
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.48%", More Borrowers Seeking Relief
- Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales Up 27.4% YoY, Active Inventory Down 45% YoY
- The Employment Situation is Worse than the Headline Unemployment Rate Suggests
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- December 13 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases and Deaths, Record Hospitalizations
- FOMC Preview
- December 12 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases, Record Hospitalizations
- Schedule for Week of December 13, 2020
- December 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases and Deaths, Record Hospitalizations
- Sacramento Housing in November: Sales increase 22% YoY, Active Inventory down 47% YoY
- Houston Real Estate in November: Sales Up 28% YoY, Inventory Down 27% YoY
- Q4 GDP Forecasts
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Increased in Q3
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly, New Starts Increased
- December 10 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases, Hospitalizations, Deaths
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $3.8 Trillion in Q3
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 37.9% Year-over-year
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Softened in November
- CoreLogic: 1.6 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q3 2020
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased sharply to 853,000
- BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in November, Core CPI Increased 0.2%
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Q3 Flow of Funds
- December 9 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases, Hospitalizations, Over 3,000 Deaths
- By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 6.7 Million in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Job Openings
- December 8 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations
- Seattle Real Estate in November: Sales up 22% YoY, Inventory UP 27% YoY
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 7.8% YoY in Early December
- Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 28% YoY, Inventory down 54% YoY
- December 7 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths, Record Hospitalizations
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54%"
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in November
- Employment: November Diffusion Indexes
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for October: "2020 On Pace to See More than 9 Million Refinance Transactions"
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- December 6 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths, Record Hospitalizations
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Uncertainty
- December 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Deaths
- Schedule for Week of December 6, 2020
- December 4 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations
- AAR: November Rail Carloads down 5.8% YoY, Intermodal Up 11.5% YoY
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly
- Trade Deficit Increased to $63.1 Billion in October
- Comments on November Employment Report
- November Employment Report: 245 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- December 3 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations
- Goldman November Payrolls Preview
- November Employment Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 28.5% Year-over-year
- ISM Services Index Decreased to 55.9% in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 712,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Services
- December 2 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 100,000 Hospitalizations
- Fed's Beige Book: "modest or moderate" Growth in Economic Activity, Some Districts see "No growth"
- November Vehicles Sales decreased to 15.55 Million SAAR
- ADP: Private Employment increased 307,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book
- December 1 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54%"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 50% Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in October
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 57.5 in November
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.3% Year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- November 30 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
November 2020
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October
- Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 49% YoY in October
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Moderates" in November
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 1.1% in October
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- November 29 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Taking Off in Earnest"
- November 28 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Schedule for Week of November 29, 2020
- November 27 COVID-19 Test Results
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32.6% Year-over-year
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Some Upward Revisions
- Lawler: The Dismal Demographics of 2020
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
- November 26 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
- November 25 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Deaths Increasing
- FOMC Minutes: "Concerned about the possibility of a further resurgence of the virus that could undermine the recovery"
- A few Comments on October New Home Sales
- Personal Income decreased 0.7% in October, Spending increased 0.5%
- New Home Sales at 999,000 Annual Rate in October
- Q3 GDP Growth Unchanged at 33.1% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 778,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, GDP, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income & Outlays, FOMC Minutes and More
- November 24 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Deaths Increasing
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in October
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
- Note: November Employment Report Will Show a Decrease of 93,000 Temporary Census Workers
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 7.0% year-over-year in September
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- November 23 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- November Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Second Straight Month-to-Month Decline"
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 5.48%"
- Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in October"
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- November 22 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Two Key Economic Dates in December
- November 21 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Schedule for Week of November 22, 2020
- November 20 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations
- Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design
- Q4 GDP Forecasts
- BLS: October Unemployment rates down in 37 States, Higher in 8 States
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
- November 19 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Comments on October Existing Home Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32.7% Year-over-year
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.85 million in October
- Philly Fed Manufacturing "Continued to Grow" in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 742,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- November 18 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- CAR on California October Housing: Sales up 20% YoY, Active Listings down 40%+ YoY
- LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in October
- AIA: "Architecture billings remained stalled in October"
- Comments on October Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 1.530 Million Annual Rate in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
- November 17 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
- Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales Up 23.5% YoY, Active Inventory Down 42% YoY
- NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Increased in Q3 2020, Led by Surge in New Credit Extensions"
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 90 in November, Record High
- Industrial Production Increased 1.1 Percent in October; 5.6% Below Pre-Crisis Level
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence
- November 16 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.47%"
- Note: The Employment Situation is Worse than the Headline Unemployment Rate Suggests
- NY Fed: Manufacturing: Business activity "expanded slightly" in New York State in November
- Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- November 15 COVID-19 Test Results
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- November 14 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
- Schedule for Week of November 15, 2020
- November 13 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 9.7% year-over-year in September
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased
- A comment on Q4 GDP
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 35.9% Year-over-year
- November 12 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations
- Lawler: Recent Slowdown in US Population Growth Accelerated in 2020
- Many Millions could lose unemployment benefits at the End of 2020
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Eased Year-over-year in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 709,000
- BLS: CPI unchanged in October, Core CPI unchanged
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
- November 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations
- Houston Real Estate in October: Sales Up 31.5% YoY, Inventory Down 26% YoY
- First Look: 2021 Housing Forecasts
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- November 10 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 1.1% YoY in November
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Third Quarter of 2020"
- BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 6.4 Million in September
- Small Business Optimism Unchanged in October
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- November 9 COVID-19 Test Results; Hospitalizations almost 60,000
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.67%"
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in October
- The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- November 8 COVID-19 Test Results; Hospitalizations almost 57,000
- Sunday Night Futures
- GDP and Employment drag from State and Local Governments
- November 7 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations almost 56,000
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 29% Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of November 8, 2020
- November 6 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations almost 55,000
- Seattle Real Estate in October: Sales up 40% YoY, Inventory UP 16% YoY
- AAR: October Rail Carloads down 6.6% YoY, Intermodal Up 10.0% YoY
- Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 11% YoY, Inventory down 34% YoY
- Comments on October Employment Report
- October Employment Report: 638 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.9% Unemployment Rate
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased
- Friday: Employment Report
- November 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations over 53,000
- Goldman October Payrolls Preview
- FOMC Statement: No Change
- October Employment Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 751,000
- Thursday: FOMC Announcement, Unemployment Claims
- November 4 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 100,000 Cases Reported Today
- October Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.2 Million SAAR
- ISM Services Index Decreased to 56.6% in October
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $63.9 Billion in September
- ADP: Private Employment increased 365,000 in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM Services
- November 3 COVID-19 Test Results
- Early Q4 GDP Forecasts
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 23% Year-over-year
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in September
- November 2 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.83%"
- The Election and 2021 Economic Forecast
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for September: "2020 Originations Will Surpass $4 Trillion for First Time Ever"
- Construction Spending Increased 0.3% in September
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 59.3 in October
- Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- November 1 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Preview
- Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 64 Institutions
October 2020
- October 31 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of November 1, 2020
- October 30 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 97,000 Cases
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in September
- Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 51% YoY in September
- Q3 2020 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
- Personal Income increased 0.9% in September, Spending increased 1.4%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- October 29 COVID-19 Test Results
- Q3 GDP: Investment
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.7% Year-over-year
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 2.2% in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 751,000
- BEA: Real GDP Increased at 33.1% Annualized Rate in Q3
- Thursday: Q3 GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- October 28 COVID-19 Test Results
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in September
- October Vehicle Sales Forecast: Unchanged Year-over-year
- Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Annual growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- October 27 COVID-19 Test Results
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October"
- Note: October Employment Report Will Show a Decrease of 147,000 Temporary Census Workers
- HVS: Q3 2020 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.7% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices
- October 26 COVID-19 Test Results; New US Record 7-Day Average Cases
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 5.90%"
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expands for Fifth Straight Month" in October
- A few Comments on September New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 959,000 Annual Rate in September
- Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Monday: New Home Sales
- October 25 COVID-19 Test Results; New US Record 7-Day Average Cases
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.7% Year-over-year
- October 24 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of October 25, 2020
- October 23 COVID-19 Test Results
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- NMHC: "October Apartment Market Conditions Showed Some Rebound from COVID-19 Impacts"
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declined Slightly
- October 22 COVID-19 Test Results
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in September
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Declined in October
- Comments on September Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.54 million in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 787,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- October 21 COVID-19 Test Results
- Fed's Beige Book: "Slight to modest" Growth in Economic Activity
- LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in September
- AIA: "Architectural billings slowdown moderated in September"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Beige Book, Architecture Billings Index
- October 20 COVID-19 Test Results
- Lehner: "COVID’s Impact on State and Local Governments"
- Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales Up 18.5% YoY, Active Inventory Down 40% YoY
- CAR on California September Housing: Sales up 21% YoY, Active Listings down 48% YoY
- BLS: September Unemployment rates down in 30 States, Higher in 8 States
- Comments on September Housing Starts
- Housing Starts at 1.415 Million Annual Rate in September
- Free Webinar Tuesday: UCI Professor Chris Schwarz 2021 Economic and Financial Forecast at 2:00 PM ET
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- October 19 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 5.92%"
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 12.3% year-over-year in August
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 85 in October, Record High
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- October 18 COVID-19 Test Results
- Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
- October 17 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of October 18, 2020
- Sacramento Housing in September: Sales increase 22% YoY, Active Inventory down 49% YoY
- October 16 COVID-19 Test Results
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly Following Large Decline Last Week
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.6 Percent in September; 7.1% Below Pre-Crisis Level
- Retail Sales increased 1.9% in September
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
- October 15 COVID-19 Test Results
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 29.2% Year-over-year
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Declined in October
- Philly Fed Manufacturing "Picked Up"; NY Fed Manufacturing "Increased Modestly" in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 898,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, NY and Philly Fed Mfg
- October 14 COVID-19 Test Results
- Houston Real Estate in September: Sales Up 32% YoY, Inventory Down 25% YoY
- House Prices to National Average Wage Index
- House Prices and Inventory
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- October 13 COVID-19 Test Results
- Technical Note: October Employment Report Will Show a Significant Decrease in Temporary Census Workers
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Eased Year-over-year in September
- Cost of Living Adjustment increases 1.3% in 2021, Contribution Base increased to $142,800
- BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in September, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Tuesday: CPI
- October 12 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.32%"
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Demographics: Renting vs. Owning
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- October 11 COVID-19 Test Results
- U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2019
- October 10 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of October 11, 2020
- October 9 COVID-19 Test Results; Most Cases in Over 2 Months
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 26% Year-over-year in September
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declined Sharply
- October 8 COVID-19 Test Results
- AAR: September Rail Carloads down 9.7% YoY, Intermodal Up 7.1% YoY
- Seattle Real Estate in September: Sales up 59% YoY, Inventory UP 8% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 29.6% Year-over-year
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Unchanged in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 840,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- October 7 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Minutes: "most forecasters were assuming that an additional pandemic-related fiscal package would be approved this year"
- By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 65% Year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- October 6 COVID-19 Test Results
- Reis: Office, Mall and Apartment Vacancy Rates Increased in Q3
- Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales up 16% YoY, Inventory down 31% YoY
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.9% Year-over-year in August
- Fed Chair Powell: Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 6.5 Million in August
- Trade Deficit Increased to $67.1 Billion in August
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Trade Deficit, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- October 5 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.81%"
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for August: "At Current Rate of Improvement, Delinquencies Will Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2022"
- ISM Services Index Increased to 57.8% in September
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- October 4 COVID-19 Test Results
- Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 65 Institutions
- October 3 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of October 4, 2020
- September Vehicles Sales increased to 16.3 Million SAAR
- October 2 COVID-19 Test Results
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Comments on September Employment Report
- September Employment Report: 661 Thousand Jobs Added, 7.9% Unemployment Rate
- September Employment Preview
- October 1 COVID-19 Test Results
- Goldman September Payrolls Preview
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Increase Significantly in August
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.5% Year-over-year
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 55.4 in September
- Construction Spending Increased 1.4% in August
- Personal Income decreased 2.7% in August, Spending increased 1.0%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 837,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
September 2020
- September 30 COVID-19 Test Results
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in August
- Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 57% YoY in August
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 8.8% in August
- Q2 GDP Revised up to -31.4% Annual Rate
- ADP: Private Employment increased 749,000 in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Q2 GDP, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
- September 29 COVID-19 Test Results
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
- "Chemical Activity Barometer Rises in September"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- September 28 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.87%"
- New Home Prices
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Recovery Picks Up Steam" in September
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- September 27 COVID-19 Test Results
- Commercial Real Estate Scarring
- September 26 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of September 27, 2020
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in August, Highest Since January 2013
- September 25 COVID-19 Test Results
- September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 5% Year-over-year Decline
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Up Again in August
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased
- September 24 COVID-19 Test Results
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in August, Serious Delinquencies Rise
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32% Year-over-year
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased at a Slower Pace" in September
- A few Comments on August New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 1,011,000 Annual Rate in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 870,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- September 23 COVID-19 Test Results
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent in September
- AIA: "Architectural billings in August still show little sign of improvement"
- FHFA: House Prices up 6.5% YoY in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: MBA Purchase Index, Fed Chair Powell
- September 22 COVID-19 Test Results
- September Employment Report Will Show a Decrease of 41,403 Temporary Census Workers
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Improved in September"
- Comments on August Existing Home Sales
- Fed Chair Powell Testimony: "Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act" at 10:30 AM ET
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.00 million in August
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- September 21 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.93%"
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Increased in Q2
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.2 Trillion in Q2
- CoreLogic: 1.7 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q2 2020
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- September 20 COVID-19 Test Results
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30% Year-over-year
- Sacramento Housing in August: Sales decline Slightly YoY, Active Inventory down 50% YoY
- September 19 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of September 20, 2020
- September 18 COVID-19 Test Results
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- BLS: August Unemployment rates down in 41 states
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased
- September 17 COVID-19 Test Results
- Philly Fed Manufacturing "continued to expand" in September
- CAR on California August Housing: Sales up 15% YoY, Active Listings down 50% YoY, Sales-to-date Down 7% Compared to 2019
- Comments on August Housing Starts
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 860,000
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.416 Million Annual Rate in August
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- September 16 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: "The Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time"
- Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales Up 1.7% YoY, Active Inventory Down 38% YoY
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent in September
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 83 in September, Record High
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, FOMC Meeting, Homebuilder Confidence
- September 15 COVID-19 Test Results
- LA Area Port Inbound Traffic up to New Record High, Outbound Traffic Down Year-over-year in August
- Technical Note: September Employment Report Will Probably Show a Decrease in Temporary Census Workers
- "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2019"
- Industrial Production Increased 0.4 Percent in August; Still 7.2% Below Pre-Crisis Level
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity expanded at a solid clip in New York State" in September
- Tuesday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg
- September 14 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 7.01%", Forbearance Requests Increase
- Recession Measures and NBER
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- September 13 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Preview
- September 12 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of September 13, 2020
- September 11 COVID-19 Test Results
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation increased Year-over-year in August
- Early Look at 2021 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in August, Core CPI increased 0.4%
- Friday: CPI
- September 10 COVID-19 Test Results
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 19% Year-over-year; Boosted by Hurricane and Fires
- Houston Real Estate in August: Sales Up 7% YoY, Inventory Down 23% YoY
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchanged at 884,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- September 9 COVID-19 Test Results
- Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales down 9% YoY, Inventory down 36% YoY
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent in September
- BLS: Job Openings increased to 6.6 Million in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Job Openings
- September 8 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 7.16%"
- Seattle Real Estate in August: Sales up 15% YoY, Inventory UP 8% YoY
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for July: "Record-Low Rates, Largest Quarterly Volume on Record"
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Monday Night Futures
- September 7 COVID-19 Test Results
- A Pandemic Employment Model
- September 6 COVID-19 Test Results
- September 5 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of September 6, 2020
- September 4 COVID-19 Test Results
- AAR: August Rail Carloads down 14.9% YoY, Intermodal Up 3.0% YoY
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Comments on August Employment Report
- August Employment Report: 1.4 Million Jobs Added, 8.4% Unemployment Rate
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased
- Friday: Employment Report
- September 3 COVID-19 Test Results
- Goldman August Payrolls Preview
- August Employment Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 27.7% Year-over-year
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- ISM Services Index decreased to 56.9% in August
- Trade Deficit Increased Sharply to $63.6 Billion in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 833,352 NSA
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services
- September 2 COVID-19 Test Results
- Technical Note on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 26% Year-over-year in August
- ADP: Private Employment increased 428,000 in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- September 1 COVID-19 Test Results
- August Vehicles Sales increased to 15.2 Million SAAR
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 150% Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Increased Slightly in July
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 56.0 in August
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.5% Year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
August 2020
- August 31 COVID-19 Test Results
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in July
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 7.20%"
- Dallas Fed: "Recovery Continues in Texas Manufacturing" in August
- Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- August 30 COVID-19 Test Results
- August Employment Report: Comments on Temporary Decennial Census Hiring and Education
- August 29 COVID-19 Test Results
- August 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 66 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of August 30, 2020
- August 28 COVID-19 Test Results
- Lawler: July Residential Home Sales/Inventories in Selected Counties with Beach/Mountain Resort Areas
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans "Improve Slightly"
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 1.9%, Core PCE increased 0.3%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- August 27 COVID-19 Test Results
- Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 61% YoY in July
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.3% Year-over-year, "Fell to a three-week low"
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 5.9% in July
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Monetary Policy Framework Review
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,006,000
- Q2 GDP Revised up to -31.7% Annual Rate
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Powell Speech, Pending Home Sales
- August 26 COVID-19 Test Results
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Increase Slightly in July
- New Home Prices
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- August 25 COVID-19 Test Results
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in July, Highest Since Feb 2013
- August Vehicle Sales Forecast: 11% Year-over-year Decline
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
- A few Comments on July New Home Sales
- August Employment Report Will Show an Increase of 237,800 Temporary Census Workers
- New Home Sales increased to 901,000 Annual Rate in July
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.3% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices
- August 24 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines Slightly to 7.20%"
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent
- Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July"
- Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- August 23 COVID-19 Test Results
- The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
- August 22 COVID-19 Test Results
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Schedule for Week of August 23, 2020
- August 21 COVID-19 Test Results
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 14.5% year-over-year in June
- BLS: July Unemployment rates down in 30 states; 3 States at New Series Highs
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in July, "Serious Delinquencies Climb"
- Comments on July Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.86 million in July
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans "Remains Flat"
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- August 20 COVID-19 Test Results
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30% Year-over-year
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Philly Fed Manufacturing "continued to expand" in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 1,106,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- August 19 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Minutes: "Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remained very elevated"
- AIA: "July architectural billings remained stalled"
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 173,000 jobs
- Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 12% YoY, Active Inventory Down 42% YoY
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Preliminary Employment Benchmark, FOMC Minutes
- August 18 COVID-19 Test Results
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
- August Employment Report Will Show an Increase of Several Hundred Thousand Temporary Census Workers
- Comments on July Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 1.496 Million Annual Rate in July
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- August 17 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for the Ninth Straight Week to 7.21%"
- CAR on California July Housing: Sales up 6% YoY, Active Listings down 48% YoY
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent in August
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Spike in the Second Quarter of 2020"
- Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity edged slightly higher in New York State" in August
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 78 in August, Ties Record High
- Monday: Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- August 16 COVID-19 Test Results
- Earlier Fed Survey: Banks reported Tighter Standards, Weaker Demand for Loans except Residential Real Estate
- August 15 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of August 16, 2020
- LA Area Port Inbound Traffic up Year-over-year in July
- August 14 COVID-19 Test Results
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased
- Q3 Preview: Real GDP as a Percent of Previous Peak
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Industrial Production Increased 3.0 Percent in July; Still 8.4% Below Pre-Crisis Level
- Retail Sales increased 1.2% in July
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
- August 13 COVID-19 Test Results
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 33% Year-over-year
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 963,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- August 12 COVID-19 Test Results
- Houston Real Estate in July: Sales Up 25% YoY, Inventory Down 19% YoY
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation increased Year-over-year in July
- Early Look at 2021 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- BLS: CPI increased 0.6% in July, Core CPI increased 0.6%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI
- August 11 COVID-19 Test Results
- August Employment Report: Temporary Census Hiring will be Significant
- CoreLogic: "Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rates Beginning to Climb"
- Tuesday: PPI, Delinquency Survey
- August 10 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 7.44%" of Portfolio Volume
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined sharply in Q2, Down 35% Year-over-year
- Seattle Real Estate in July: Sales up 10% YoY, Inventory down 15% YoY
- BLS: Job Openings increased to 5.9 Million in June
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent in August
- High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Monday: Job Openings
- August 9 COVID-19 Test Results
- August 8 COVID-19 Test Results
- State and Local Education Employment in August
- Schedule for Week of August 9, 2020
- August 7 COVID-19 Test Results
- AAR: July Rail Carloads down 17.6% YoY, Intermodal Down 1.4% YoY
- Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 70% YoY in June
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 35% Year-over-year
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Due to Expirations
- Comments on July Employment Report
- July Employment Report: 1.8 Million Jobs Added, 10.2% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- August 6 COVID-19 Test Results
- Goldman July Payrolls Preview
- July Employment Preview
- NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory down 35% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,186,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, NY Fed Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
- August 5 COVID-19 Test Results
- The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
- ISM Services Index increased to 58.1% in July, Employment Index Declined
- Trade Deficit decreased to $50.7 Billion in June
- ADP: Private Employment increased 167,000 in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg
- August 4 COVID-19 Test Results
- July 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 65 Institutions
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 81% Year-over-year
- BEA: July Vehicles Sales increased to 14.5 Million SAAR
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.9% Year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: BEA Light Vehicle Sales
- August 3 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 7.67%" of Portfolio Volume
- Three Months Until the Election
- Construction Spending Decreased in June
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 54.2 in July
- High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for June
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- August 2 COVID-19 Test Results
- State and Local Government Education Employment will Increase Sharply in July, Seasonally Adjusted
- August 1 COVID-19 Test Results
- Forecasts for the July Employment Report: A Stall, but Watch State and Local Hiring
- Schedule for Week of August 2, 2020
July 2020
- July 31 COVID-19 Test Results
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Sharply in June
- Comparing US, EU and China GDP
- Early Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly as of July 28th
- Personal Income decreased 1.1% in June, Spending increased 5.6%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- July 30 COVID-19 Test Results
- Year-over-year and Quarterly Change in Real GDP
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 38% Year-over-year
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Q2 GDP: Investment
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 1,434,000
- BEA: Real GDP Decreased at 32.9% Annualized Rate in Q2
- Thursday: Q2 GDP, Unemployment Claims
- July 29 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Statement: "The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus"
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 26.5% Missed or Expect to Miss Rent or Mortgage Payment
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 16.6% in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Meeting, Pending Home Sales
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Slow Slightly in June
- July 28 COVID-19 Test Results
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Free Webinar Today: UCI Professor Chris Schwarz Economic and Market Update at 2:30 PM ET
- HVS: Q2 2020 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing in the Fifth District showed signs of recovery in July"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.5% year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
- July 27 COVID-19 Test Results
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased sharply in June, Highest in 7 Years
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for Sixth Straight Week to 7.74%" of Portfolio Volume
- Where to Look for Initial Economic Damage if Disaster Relief is Inadequate
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Recovery Continues" in July
- High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- July 26 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Preview
- July 25 COVID-19 Test Results
- Free Webinar: UCI Professor Chris Schwarz Economic and Market Update on Tuesday, July 28th
- Schedule for Week of July 26, 2020
- July 24 COVID-19 Test Results
- July Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16% Year-over-year Decline
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 35% Annual Rate Decline
- A few Comments on June New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 776,000 Annual Rate in June
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
- Friday: New Home Sales
- July 23 COVID-19 Test Results
- NMHC: "July Apartment Market Conditions Showed Continued Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak"
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Grow Slightly" in July
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 39% Year-over-year
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 1,416,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- July 22 COVID-19 Test Results
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent as of July 20th
- AIA: "Architecture billings remain in negative territory, begin to stabilize"
- Comments on June Existing Home Sales
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 26.4% Missed or Expect to Miss Rent or Mortgage Payment
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.72 million in June
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in June, "Serious Delinquencies Surge to 9-Year High"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- July 21 COVID-19 Test Results
- New York City Subway Usage
- Thoughts on CARES II: Additional Disaster Relief
- Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased Further in June"
- July 20 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for Fifth Straight Week to 7.80%" of Portfolio Volume
- Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Surged in June
- Sacramento Housing in June: Sales decline 1% YoY, Active Inventory down 37% YoY
- Comments on BLS Reference Week
- Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
- Sunday Night Futures
- July 19 COVID-19 Test Results
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 2% YoY, Active Inventory Down 23% YoY
- July 18 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of July 19, 2020
- July 17 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 77,233 Positive Cases
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- CAR on California June Housing: Sales down 13% YoY, Listing down 25% YoY
- Comments on June Housing Starts
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in June
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 35% Annual Rate Decline
- BLS: June Unemployment rates down in 42 states; 3 States at New Record Highs
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decline, Lowest Since May
- Housing Starts increased to 1.186 Million Annual Rate in June
- Friday: Housing Starts
- July 16 COVID-19 Test Results, Record Positive Tests
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Philly Fed Manufacturing "continued to expand" in July
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 38% Year-over-year
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 72 in July
- Retail Sales increased 7.5% in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,300,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- July 15 COVID-19 Test Results
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased in almost all Districts, but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic."
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 34.9% of Households Expect Loss in Income
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent in July
- Industrial Production Increased 5.4 Percent in June; Still 10.8% Below Pre-Crisis Level
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity increased in New York State" in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg, Beige Book
- July 14 COVID-19 Test Results
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased Further in June
- First Look at 2021 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Soft Year-over-year in June
- BLS: CPI increased 0.6% in June, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Tuesday: CPI
- July 13 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for Fourth Straight Week to 8.18%" of Portfolio Volume
- "Cargo Declines at Port of Long Beach in June"
- Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery
- Sunday Night Futures
- July 12 COVID-19 Test Results
- July 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Highest Percent Positive Since Early May
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.2% Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of July 12, 2020
- July 10 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Tests, Record Positive Tests
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 36% Annual Rate Decline
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Fall by 435K
- July 9 COVID-19 Test Results
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 26% year-over-year in May
- Reis on Q2 Office, Mall and Apartment Vacancy Rates
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,314,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- July 8 COVID-19 Test Results, Record Positive, Highest Percent Positive since Early May
- Houston Real Estate in June: Sales Up 18.3% YoY, Inventory Down 17.5% YoY, Concerns going forward
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent in July
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 34.9% of Households Expect Loss in Income; 25.9% Concerned about Housing
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 42% Year-over-year in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- July 7 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for Third Straight Week to 8.39%" of Portfolio Volume
- Seattle Real Estate in June: Sales down 8% YoY, Inventory down 32% YoY
- Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales down 19% YoY, Inventory down 31% YoY
- BLS: Job Openings increased to 5.4 Million in May
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.8% Year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- July 6 COVID-19 Test Results
- AAR: June Rail Carloads down 22.4% YoY, Intermodal Down 6.6% YoY
- By Request: Percent Permanent Job Losers by Recession
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May, Cash-Out Refinance Activity Declined
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.1% in June
- Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery
- Sunday Night Futures
- July 5 COVID-19 Test Results
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 32% of Households Expect Loss in Income; 24.5% Concerned about Housing
- July 4 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of July 5, 2020
- July 3 COVID-19 Test Results, Record Tests, Record Number Positive
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declined
- July 2 COVID-19 Test Results
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 38.7% Year-over-year
- Trade Deficit increased to $54.6 Billion in May
- BEA: June Vehicles Sales increased to 13.0 Million SAAR
- Comments on June Employment Report
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,427,000
- June Employment Report: 4.8 Million Jobs Added, 11.1% Unemployment Rate
- Thursday: Employment Report, Initial Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
- July 1 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Percent Positive Since Early May, Over 50,000 Positive
- FOMC Minutes: Pandemic "Posed considerable downside risks to the economic outlook over the medium term"
- June Employment Preview
- Construction Spending Decreased in May
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 52.6 in June
- ADP: Private Employment increased 2,369,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, FOMC Minutes
June 2020
- June 30 COVID-19 Test Results
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in May
- Las Vegas Visitor Authority: "No Convention Attendance, Hotel Occupancy 2.8%" in May
- Fed Chair Powell: "Coronavirus and CARES Act" at 12:30 PM ET
- "Chemical Activity Barometer Falls Slightly In June"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in April
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- June 29 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 8.47%" of Portfolio Volume
- Update: Framing Lumber Future Prices Up Year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: "Manufacturing Regains Footing After Epic Decline"
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 44.3% in May
- Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery
- Monday: Pending Home Sales
- June 28 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Percent Positive Since Early May
- June 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 64 Institutions
- Additional Disaster Relief
- June 27 COVID-19 Test Results
- June Vehicle Sales Forecast: 29% Year-over-year Decline
- Schedule for Week of June 28, 2020
- June 26 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Daily Positive Cases Ever - Again
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in May, Highest in 2 Years
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 33% Annual Rate Decline
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
- Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
- Personal Income decreased 4.2% in May, Spending increased 8.2%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
- June 25 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Daily Positive Cases Ever
- Economic Outlook: The Gathering Storm
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Grew Slightly " in June
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 41.8% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,480,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Durable Goods
- June 24 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Daily Positive Cases Ever
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 40% year-over-year in April
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 31% of Households Expect Loss in Income over Next 4 Weeks
- AIA: "Architecture billings downward trajectory moderates"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Mortgage Purchase Applications, Architecture Billings Index
- June 23 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Percent Positive since Mid-May
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 92 Percent Paid Rent as of June 20th, Same Pace as in June 2019
- A few Comments on May New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 676,000 Annual Rate in May
- Tuesday: New Home Sales
- June 22 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Percent Positive since Late May
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for First Time in Series to 8.48%" of Portfolio Volume
- Comments on May Existing Home Sales
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Sharply in May, Highest Rate since 2011
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million in May, Rebound Expected in Coming Months
- Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery
- Chicago Fed National Activity "Suggests Economic Growth Increased Substantially in May"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- June 21 COVID-19 Test Results
- June 20 COVID-19 Test Results; Most Positive Results Since May 1st
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Schedule for Week of June 21, 2020
- June 19 COVID-19 Test Results; Most Positive Results Since May 1st
- Sacramento Housing in May: Sales decline 37% YoY, Active Inventory down 23% YoY
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 33% Annual Rate Decline
- BLS: May Unemployment rates down in 38 states; 4 States at New Record Highs
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declines Slightly for the third consecutive week
- June 18 COVID-19 Test Results; Most Positive Results Since Early May
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 43.4% Year-over-year
- Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Philly Fed Manufacturing firms reported "signs of improvement" in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,508,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- June 17 COVID-19 Test Results
- Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design
- Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales down 34% YoY, Active Inventory Down 30% YoY
- Comments on May Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 974 Thousand Annual Rate in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- June 16 COVID-19 Test Results
- Me on NPR The Indicator from Planet Money about High Frequency Indicators
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 89 Percent Paid Rent as of June 13th, Same Pace as last year!
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 58 in June
- Industrial Production Increased 1.4 Percent in May
- Retail Sales increased 17.7% in May
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- June 15 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 8.55%" of Portfolio Volume
- LA area Port Traffic Down Sharply Year-over-year in May
- Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity steadied in New York State" in June
- Sunday Night Futures
- June 14 COVID-19 Test Results
- Recession Measures and NBER
- June 13 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of June 14, 2020
- Seattle Real Estate in May: Sales down 41% YoY, Inventory down 37% YoY
- June 12 COVID-19 Test Results
- Seat Belts and Face Masks
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 40% Annual Rate Decline
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Flat in Q1
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declines Slightly for the second consecutive week
- June 11 COVID-19 Test Results
- Houston Real Estate in May: Sales Down 20.7% YoY, Inventory Down 8.3% YoY
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $7.4 Trillion in Q1
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 45.3% Year-over-year, Eighth Consecutive Week of Slightly Higher Demand
- CoreLogic: 1.8 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q1 2020
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,542,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q1 Flow of Funds
- June 10 COVID-19 Test Results:
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 48.3% of Households lost Income
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: "The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship"
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Soft in May
- BLS: CPI decreased 0.1% in May, Core CPI decreased 0.1%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Announcement
- Video: June 2020 Economic and Financial Update
- June 9 COVID-19 Test Results: Disappointing Local News
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Most People Paying Rent in June
- BLS: Job Openings decreased to 5.0 Million in April
- Small Business Optimism Increased in May, "Bad news for job creation"
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- June 8 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 8.53%" of Portfolio Volume
- Tomorrow June 9th: June 2020 Market & Economic Update FREE!
- NBER: February 2020 was Peak in US Economic Activity
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for April
- Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales down 49% YoY, Inventory down 22% YoY
- Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
- Sunday Night Futures
- June 7 COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Preview
- June 6 COVID-19 Test Results, Over 500,000 Tests
- By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Schedule for Week of June 7, 2020
- June 5 COVID-19 Test Results, Over 500,000 Tests, Most Positive in Over a Month
- Will State and Local Governments Hire 1 Million Teachers in June and July? No, but ...
- AAR: May Rail Carloads down 27.7% YoY, Intermodal Down 13.0% YoY
- Tuesday June 9th: June 2020 Market & Economic Update
- Comments on May Employment Report
- May Employment Report: 2,500,000 Jobs Added, 13.3% Unemployment Rate
- Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declines Slightly
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman May Payrolls Preview
- June 4 COVID-19 Test Results, Eighth Consecutive Day with Over 400,000 Tests
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 43.2% Year-over-year, Seventh Consecutive Week of Higher Demand
- May Employment Preview
- Trade Deficit increased to $49.4 Billion in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,877,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
- June 3 COVID-19 Test Results
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 48.1% of Households lost Income
- BEA: May Vehicles Sales increased to 12.2 Million SAAR
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 18.6% year-over-year in March
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 45.4% in May
- ADP: Private Employment decreased 2,760,000 in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased, Purchase Applications up 18% Year over Year
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg
- June 2 COVID-19 Test Results
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE at All Time Low
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Next Tuesday: June 2020 Market & Economic Update
- Update: Framing Lumber Future Prices Up Year-over-year
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.4% Year-over-year in April
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales, CoreLogic House Prices
- June 1 COVID-19 Test Results: Progress on Percent Positive
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 8.46%" of Portfolio Volume
- Zillow Case-Shiller April Forecast: Still Showing Increasing YoY Price Gains
- Construction Spending Decreased in April
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 43.1 in May
- Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
May 2020
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- May 31 COVID-19 Test Results
- May 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 65 Institutions
- May 30 COVID-19 Test Results
- Las Vegas Visitor Authority: "No Convention Attendance, Hotel Occupancy 1.7%" in April
- Schedule for Week of May 31, 2020
- May 29 COVID-19 Test Results: Progress
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in April
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 40% Annual Rate Decline
- Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
- Black Knight: Mortgage Forbearance Volumes Flatten, Total Roughly Steady at 4.76M
- Personal Income increased 10.5% in April, Spending decreased 13.6%, Core PCE decreased 0.4%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI, Fed Chair Jerome Powell
- May 28 COVID-19 Test Results: Progress
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 50.2% Year-over-year, Slight Increase Week-over-week
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in April
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline" in May
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 21.8% in April
- Q1 GDP Revised Down to -5.0% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 2,123,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- May 27 COVID-19 Test Results: Going Backwards
- New Home Prices
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most"
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Decreased in All States in April
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 48.5% of Households lost Income
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District manufacturing remained soft in May"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased, Purchase Applications up 9% Year over Year
- Wednesday: Beige Book, Richmond Fed Mfg
- May 26 COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 8.36%" of Portfolio Volume
- A few Comments on April New Home Sales
- Dallas Fed: "Contraction Continues in Texas Manufacturing Sector"
- New Home Sales at 623,000 Annual Rate in April
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.4% year-over-year in March
- "Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth fell substantially in April"
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices
- May 25 COVID-19 Test Results: Progress
- Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
- May 24 COVID-19 Test Results
- Economic Outlook: Not Sanguine
- May 23 COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of May 24, 2020
- May 22 COVID-19 Test Results
- Seasonal Adjustment Weirdness: Will State and Local Governments Hire 700,000 Teachers in June and July?
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 40% Annual Rate Decline
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90.8 Percent Paid Rent as of May 20th
- BLS: April jobless rates up in all 50 states; 43 States at New Record Highs
- Black Knight: 4.75 Million Homeowners Now in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans; Nearly Half Made April Mortgage Payments
- May 21 COVID-19 Test Results
- Comments on April Existing Home Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 54.1% Year-over-year, Slight Increase Week-over-week
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.33 million in April
- Philly Fed Manufacturing firms reported "continued weakness" in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 2,438,000
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Sharply in April, "Largest Single-Month Increase Ever Recorded"
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales down 27% YoY, Active Inventory Down 22% YoY
- May 20 COVID-19 Test Results, AND Great News on the Next Step
- FOMC Minutes: "Considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term"
- Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 47.5% of Households lost Income
- U.S. Births decreased in 2019, "Lowest number of births since 1985"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index Decreased in April to Record Low
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased, Purchase Applications up 6% Week over Week
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, FOMC Minutes
- May 19 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Merrill: "Most of the slowdown occurred due to voluntary social distancing rather than lockdown policies"
- Sacramento Housing in April: Sales decline 32% YoY, Active Inventory down 15% YoY
- Comments on April Housing Starts
- Testimony by Chair Powell on the Federal Reserve's response to the coronavirus and the CARES Act
- Housing Starts decreased to 891 Thousand Annual Rate in April
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- May 18 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 8.16%" of Portfolio Volume
- CAR on California April Housing: Sales down 30% YoY, Listing down 25% YoY
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 37 in May
- Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
- Monday: Builder Confidence
- May 17 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Test-and-Trace Success for Smallpox
- May 16 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of May 17, 2020
- May 15 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 87.7 Percent Paid Rent as of May 13th
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity continued to deteriorate significantly in New York State"
- Black Knight: 4.7 Million Homeowners Now in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans, 8.8% of Mortgages
- BLS: Job Openings decreased to 6.2 Million in March
- Industrial Production Decreased 11.2 Percent in April, Capacity utilization at Record Low
- Retail Sales decreased 16.4% in April
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Job Openings
- May 14 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Virginia Separates Out Antibody Tests
- The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
- UCI Professor Chris Schwarz on the Economy at 1 PM ET
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 55.9% Year-over-year, Slight Increase Week-over-week
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 2,981,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- May 13 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Possible Errors Cloud Data
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q1, Down 20% Year-over-year
- Houston Real Estate in April: Sales Down 21.6% YoY, Inventory Unchanged YoY
- Fed Chair Powell: Current Economic Issues "May require additional policy measures"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Slightly, Purchase Applications up 11% Week over Week
- May 12 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Step Backwards
- LA area Port Traffic Down Sharply Year-over-year in April
- Bloomberg Interview on Housing and COVID-19
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Slowed in April
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in First Quarter of 2020"
- Small Business Optimism Decreased Sharply in April
- BLS: CPI decreased 0.8% in April, Core CPI decreased 0.4%
- Tuesday: CPI
- May 11 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Progress!
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 7.91%" of Portfolio Volume
- Education and Unemployment
- Last Week: NY Fed Q1 Report: "Pre-COVID-19 Data Shows Total Household Debt Increased in Q1 2020"
- Four High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
- Sunday Night Futures
- May 10 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Employment: April Diffusion Indexes Decline to Record Lows
- May 9 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Third Consecutive Day Over 300K
- Recession Measures and NBER
- Schedule for Week of May 10, 2020
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline
- May 8 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: States Ramping Up Tracing
- AAR: April Rail Carloads down 25.2% YoY, Intermodal Down 17.2% YoY
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.2 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of May 6
- Comments on April Employment Report
- April Employment Report: 20,500,000 Jobs Lost, 14.7% Unemployment Rate
- Black Knight: Nearly 4.1 Million Homeowners Now in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans, 7.7% of Mortgages
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman April Payrolls Review
- May 7 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Progress, More Needed
- April Employment Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 58.5% Year-over-year, Slight Increase Week-over-week
- Seattle Real Estate in April: Sales down 25% YoY, Inventory down 31% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 3,169,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- May 6 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: One Step Back
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.2% year-over-year in February, Pre-COVID
- Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales down 33% YoY, Inventory down 16% YoY
- ADP: Private Employment decreased 20,236,000 in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Slightly, Purchase Applications up 6% Week over Week
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- May 5 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Progress on Percent Positive
- Las Vegas: "Effectively empty for the second half of March"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 41.8% in April
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.5% Year-over-year in March
- Trade Deficit increased to $44.4 Billion in March
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg Index
- May 4 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 7.54%" of Portfolio Volume
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 54% Year-over-year in April
- Update: Framing Lumber Future Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- BEA: April Vehicles Sales decreased to 8.6 Million SAAR, Lowest in 50 Years
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March; Discussion of Forbearance Plans
- Sunday Night Futures
- May 3 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- May 2 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Four High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
- Schedule for Week of May 3, 2020
- May 1 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Progress
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline
- Construction Spending Increased in March
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 41.5 in April
- Black Knight: More than 3.8 Million Homeowners Now in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans
April 2020
- Friday: ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending
- April 30 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in March
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 62.2% Year-over-year
- Zillow Case-Shiller March Forecast: Still Showing Increasing YoY Price Gains, Mostly Pre-Crisis
- Q1 2020 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Personal Income decreased 2.0% in March, Spending decreased 7.5%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 3,839,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- April 29 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- FOMC Statement: "committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time"
- Q1 GDP: Investment
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 20.8% in March
- BEA: Real GDP decreased at 4.8% Annualized Rate in Q1
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased, Purchase Applications up 12% Week over Week
- Wednesday: GDP, FOMC Announcement, Pending Home Sales
- April 28 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Anonymous Exposure Notification coming Friday!
- Lawler: D.R. Horton: Order Decline Not as Bad as Feared So Far in April
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
- HVS: Q1 2020 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Declined Sharply in April", Lowest Reading on Record
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.2% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
- April 27 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Disappointing
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in March
- MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 6.99%" of Portfolio Volume
- Dallas Fed: "Contraction in Texas Manufacturing Sector Worsens", Record Low Activity Index
- TSA checkpoint travel numbers
- Sunday Night Futures
- April 26 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Fauci Expects Testing to Double
- April 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 64 Institutions
- April 25 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Making Progress!
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 64.4% Year-over-year; 4-Week Average at All Time Record Low
- Schedule for Week of April 26, 2020
- April 24 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR
- Lawler: Zillow on Trends in Pending Sales
- Lawler: Excerpts from PulteGroup’s Conference Call
- University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment at 71.8, Down from 89.1 in March
- Black Knight: More than 3.4 Million Homeowners Now in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans
- Friday: Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment
- April 23 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in March, First Increase in March Ever
- A few Comments on March New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Decreased Further" in April, Lowest Reading on Record
- New Home Sales Decrease to 627,000 Annual Rate in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 4,427,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales
- April 22 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- NMHC: "April Apartment Market Conditions Showed Weakness Amid COVID-19 Outbreak"
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Decreased in 34 states in March
- FHFA: House Prices up 5.7% YoY in February
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index Decreased Sharply in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased, Purchase Applications down 31% YoY
- Wednesday: Mortgage Purchase Index, Architecture Billings
- April 21 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- A few Comments on Weekly and Continued Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Las Vegas Home Sales Plunged in First Half of April
- Comments on March Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.27 million in March
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
- April 20 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- TSA checkpoint travel numbers
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 69.8% Year-over-year to All Time Record Low
- "Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Decreased Substantially in March"
- Sunday Night Futures
- April 19 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Economic Outlook: Reasons for Optimism and Pessimism
- April 18 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Schedule for Week of April 19, 2020
- April 17 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR
- Seattle Real Estate in March: Sales up 17.6% YoY, Inventory down 30.1% YoY
- BLS: March Unemployment rates increased in 29 States
- Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 3.4% YoY, Active Inventory Down 22% YoY
- April 16 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- CAR on California March Housing: Sales down 6.1% YoY
- Lawler: Redfin Selected Housing Market Data
- Comments on March Housing Starts
- Philly Fed "Manufacturing firms reported continued weakening" in April
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.216 Million Annual Rate in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 5,245,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- April 15 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: More Needed
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly"
- NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Rent Payment Rate at 93 Percent of Prior Month
- NAHB: Builder Confidence "Plunged" to 30 in April
- Industrial Production Decreased in March
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity plunged in New York State", Record Low Index
- Retail Sales decreased 8.7% in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased, Purchase Applications down 35% YoY
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book
- April 14 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- The Sharp Decline in Housing Activity
- Employment: March Diffusion Indexes
- The Top Ten Job Streaks
- Small Business Optimism Decreased Sharply in March
- April 13 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- MBA Survey: Total Number of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Jumped from 2.73% to 3.74%
- What is a Recession? What is a Depression?
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for Febuary; "Unemployment Spike Triggering Surge in Mortgage Forbearance Requests"
- Sunday Night Futures
- April 12 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Four High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
- April 11 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Still Struggling to Test
- Schedule for Week of April 12, 2020
- April 10 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- Reopening: Milestones, Not Dates
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR
- CDC: Seasonal Flu Activity Very Low
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Near 2% YoY in March
- Sacramento Housing in March: Sales decline 11.4% YoY, Active Inventory down 11.9% YoY
- BLS: CPI decreased 0.4% in March, Core CPI decreased 0.1%
- Friday: CPI, Markets Closed for Good Friday
- April 9 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- University of Michigan: Largest Decline on Record for Consumer Sentiment
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 68.5% Year-over-year to All Time Record Low
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 6,606,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- April 8 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in March
- FOMC Minutes: Zero Rates until "weathered recent events"
- Houston Real Estate in March: Sales up 6.9% YoY, Inventory Up 2.6% YoY
- Weather Adjusted Employment Losses in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased, Purchase Applications down 33% YoY
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications
- April 7 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- The "Square Root Recovery"
- Phase 4 Disaster Relief
- BLS: Job Openings decreased to 6.9 Million in February
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.1% Year-over-year in February
- Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales up 6.5% YoY, Inventory down 17% YoY
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- April 6 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 43% Year-over-year in March
- TSA checkpoint travel numbers
- Update: Framing Lumber Future Prices Down 25% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- April 5 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results
- April 4 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results Increase; California to Increase Testing Fivefold
- Schedule for Week of April 5, 2020
- April 3 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results per Day; More Testing Needed
- AAR: March Rail Carloads down 6.0% YoY, Intermodal Down 12.2% YoY
- CDC: Seasonal Flu Activity Decreased Sharply, Now "Low"
- Comments on March Employment Report
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 52.5% in March
- March Employment Report: 701,000 Jobs Lost (718,000 Lost ex-Census), 4.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- April 2 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results per Day; More Testing Needed
- Goldman: March Payrolls Preview
- March Employment Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 67% Year-over-year to All Time Record Low
- BEA: March Vehicles Sales decreased to 11.4 Million SAAR
- Trade Deficit decreased to $39.9 Billion in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 6,648,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
- April 1 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day; More Testing Needed
- Zillow Case-Shiller February Forecast: "Ancient History"
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in February, Lowest Since 2007
- Construction Spending Decreased in February
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.1 in March
- ADP: Private Employment decreased 27,000 in March
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased, Purchase Applications down 24% YoY
March 2020
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- March 31 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- The Economic Outlook
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.9% year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- March 30 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- TSA checkpoint travel numbers
- Movie Box Office
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Contracts Suddenly, Outlook Worsens", Record Low Activity Index
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Increase 2.4% in February"
- Sunday Night Futures: Oil Prices Lowest Since Feb 2002
- March 29 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- March 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 65 Institutions
- March 28 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- Schedule for Week of March 29, 2020
- March 27 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- CDC: Seasonal Flu Activity Slowing
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Services Activity Decreased Significantly"
- BLS: February Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Six States
- Personal Income increased 0.6% in February, Spending increased 0.2%, Core PCE increase 0.2%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
- March 26 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in February
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 56% Year-over-year to All Time Record Low
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined Sharply" in March
- Third Estimate Q4 GDP: Remains at 2.1% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 3,283,000
- Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Q4 GDP
- March 25 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- A 40-Day Plan to Start Recovery
- March Vehicle Sales Forecast: 35% Year-over-year Decline
- FHFA: House Prices up 5.2% YoY in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Goods
- March 24 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- A few Comments on February New Home Sales
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District manufacturing activity remained fairly flat in March"
- New Home Sales at 765,000 Annual Rate in February
- Philly Fed: "Nonmanufacturing firms reported a significant weakening in activity this month"
- Tuesday: New Home Sale, Richmond Fed Mfg
- March 23 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased slightly in February
- Fed: Whatever it Takes Announcement
- "Chicago Fed National Activity Index Index Suggests Economic Growth Picked Up in February"
- Sunday Night Futures: Limit Down
- March 22 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
- A few Comments on Weekly and Continued Unemployment Claims
- March 21 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day
- Schedule for Week of March 22, 2020
- March 20 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day
- The Next Phase of Testing
- Comments on February Existing Home Sales
- CDC: Seasonal Flu Activity Slowing
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.77 million in February
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- March 19 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day
- Update: Decline in Restaurant Traffic
- Sacramento Housing in February: Sales Unchanged YoY, Active Inventory down 28.7% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 24.4% Year-over-year
- Philly Fed "Current Manufacturing Indicators Show a Weakening in Activity in March"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 281,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Update: COVID-19 Tests per Day
- Update: Decline in Restaurant Traffic
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February; Lawler "I doubt anyone really cares"
- Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales up 13.6% YoY, Active Inventory Down 43.5% YoY
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in February, Expected to decline rapidly
- Comments on February Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.599 Million Annual Rate in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
- COVID-19 Tests per Day
- BLS: Job Openings increased to 7.0 Million in January
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 72 in March
- Industrial Production Increased in February
- Retail Sales decreased 0.5% in February
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Job Openings
- Thanks to All the Heroes!
- Update: Decline in Restaurant Traffic
- BLS: January Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Six States
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity declined in New York State", Headline Fell Sharply
- Sunday Night Futures: Limit Down, Recession Call
- Fed Cuts Rate to Zero in Emergency Meeting
- FOMC Preview
- Dramatic Decline in Restaurant Traffic
- Schedule for Week of March 15, 2020
- The Sudden Economic Stop
- High Frequency Data: Movie Box Office
- From Merrill: Flirting with Recession
- Preliminary March Consumer Sentiment Declines to 95.9 from 101.0
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q4
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q4
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Sharply Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Flow of Funds
- Houston Real Estate in February: Sales up 14.9% YoY, Inventory Up 3.8% YoY
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in February, Core PCE below 2%
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in February
- BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in February, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
- Me on NPR The Indicator from Planet Money with Cardiff Garcia
- Employment: February Diffusion Indexes
- Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
- On COVID-19 Seasonality
- Small Business Optimism Increased Slightly in February
- Seattle Real Estate in February: Sales up 5.2% YoY, Inventory down 32.5% YoY
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January; "Cash-out lending hit a more than 10-year high at the end of 2019"
- Going on Recession Watch
- Oil Prices
- Weather Adjusted Employment Gains in February
- Sunday Night Futures; Oil Prices Collapse
- Fiscal Policies to Address COVID-19
- Schedule for Week of March 8, 2020
- High Frequency Data: Movie Box Office
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 3.1%
- AAR: February Rail Carloads down 7.3% YoY, Intermodal Down 8.9% YoY
- Comments on February Employment Report
- Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales up 23% YoY, Inventory down 39% YoY
- Trade Deficit decreased to $45.3 Billion in January
- February Employment Report: 273,000 Jobs Added (266,000 ex-Census), 3.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Goldman: February Payrolls Preview
- February Employment Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Actvity Expanded "modest to moderate rate", Coronavirus Impacting Travel
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.3% in February
- BEA: February Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.8 Million SAAR
- ADP: Private Employment increased 183,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg, Beige Book
- 30 Year Mortgage Rates at 3.0%
- Policy Proposal: Enhanced Automatic Stabilizer
- Pandemic: A Slowdown or a Recession?
- Federal Reserve Cuts Rate 1/2 percentage point
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.0% Year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales, Corelogic House Prices
- A Few Comments on COVID-19 Non-Medical Policies
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Increased in January
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.1 in February
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- February 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 63 Institutions
February 2020
- Schedule for Week of March 1, 2020
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in January
- The Economic Impact of the COVID-19
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.1% to 2.6%
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreases Year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.6% in January, Spending increased 0.2%, Core PCE increase 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in January, Lowest since 2007
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Ascend 5.2% in January"
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased Modestly" in February
- Q4 GDP Unchanged at 2.1% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: House Price Gains "Back on the Gas"
- New Home Prices
- A few Comments on January New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increase to 764,000 Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q4
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Softened in February
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.8% year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- House Prices and Inventory
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues"
- "Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to an Uptick in Economic Growth in January"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design
- Schedule for Week of February 23, 2020
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increases Year-over-year
- Comments on January Existing Home Sales
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.6%
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in January
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 18.1% YoY, Active Inventory Down 38.9% YoY
- Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January, Lowest Level on Record
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity Increased in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 210,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- CAR on California January Housing: Sales up 10.3% YoY, Inventory down 26.9%
- FOMC Minutes: Policy on Hold
- AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2020"
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
- Comments on January Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.567 Million Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, PPI, FOMC Minutes
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 74 in February
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity picked up in New York State"
- Tuesday: Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- The Housing Bubble, Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 17% Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of February 16, 2020
- Census: A Changing Nation: Population Projections Under Alternative Immigration Scenarios
- Sacramento Housing in January: Sales Up 5.6% YoY, Active Inventory down 32.7% YoY
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.4%
- Industrial Production Decreased in January
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in January
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreases Year-over-year
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in January, Core PCE below 2%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 205,000
- BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in January, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in January
- Houston Real Estate in January: Sales up 15.2% YoY, Inventory Up 3.7% YoY
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in Fourth Quarter of 2019"
- NY Fed Q4 Report: "Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion as Mortgage Originations Reach Highest Volume since 2005"
- BLS: Job Openings "Fell" to 6.4 Million in December
- Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Small Business Optimism Increased in January
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, NY Fed Household Debt and Credit
- Payroll Employment and Seasonal Factors
- Las Vegas: Record Convention Traffic in 2019, Visitor Traffic Increases
- Seattle Real Estate in January: Sales up 17.2% YoY, Inventory down 32.9% YoY
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increases Year-over-year, Concerns about 2019-nCoV
- Weather Adjusted Employment Gains in January
- Schedule for Week of February 9, 2020
- The Headline Job Streak Survives, The ex-Census Job Streak Ended in 2019
- AAR: January Rail Carloads down 5.9% YoY, Intermodal Down 5.4% YoY
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%
- Comments on January Employment Report
- January Employment Report: 225,000 Jobs Added, 3.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman: January Payrolls Preview
- January Employment Preview
- Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales up 25% YoY, Inventory down 29% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 202,000
- Revisiting Demographics and GDP
- Off-Topic: Iraq War and Impeachment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.5% in January
- Trade Deficit increased to $48.9 Billion in December
- ADP: Private Employment increased 291,000 in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg
- U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increased Slightly in 2019
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 11% Year-over-year in January
- BEA: January Vehicles Sales increased to 16.8 Million SAAR
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.0% Year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: BEA Vehicle Sales
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index Decreased in January
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Decreased in December
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9 in January
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for December; "Home-price-growth rate gained steam"
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- January 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 64 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of February 2, 2020
January 2020
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in December
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%
- Q4 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in December, Spending increased 0.3%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- "Mortgage Rates Basically at Best Levels Since 2016"
- Q4 GDP: Investment
- HVS: Q4 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.1% Annualized Rate in Q4
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: House Price Gains "Primed for an Upswing"
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in December
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Skid 4.9% in December"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement and Press Conference, Pending Home Sales
- CBO Projection: Annual Budget Deficit to be above 4% GDP for the Next Decade
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded in January
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.5% year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in December
- New Home Prices
- A few Comments on December New Home Sales
- Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up"
- New Home Sales at 694,000 Annual Rate in December
- Monday: New Home Sales
- FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of January 26, 2020
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.2%
- BLS: December Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Eight States
- Sacramento Housing in December: Sales Up 12.7% YoY, Active Inventory down 38.8% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increases Year-over-year
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in December
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Nearly Flat in January"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 211,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Ends Year on Positive Note"
- Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in December
- Comments on December Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.54 million in December
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in December"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- "Chemical Activity Barometer Rose in January"
- Revisiting: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked?
- Retired Workers and the Overall Labor Force Participation Rate
- Monday Night Futures
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up 18.5% YoY, Active Inventory Down 31.2% YoY
- Schedule for Week of January 19, 2020
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
- CAR on California December Housing: Sales up 7.4% YoY, Inventory down 26.5%, Lowest Inventory in "nearly seven years"
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.0%
- Comments on December Housing Starts
- BLS: Job Openings "Fell" to 6.8 Million in November
- Industrial Production Decreased in December
- Housing Starts increased to 1.608 Million Annual Rate in December
- Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Job Openings
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreases Year-over-year
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 75 in January
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity Increased in January
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 204,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Builder Survey
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Actvity Expanded "Modestly", Labor Market "Tight"
- Small Business Optimism Index "Dips" in December
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew to a small degree in New York State"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: PPI, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Beige Book
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in December, Core PCE below 2%
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in December
- BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in December, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- Tuesday: CPI
- Chicago Fed: Summary of 2019 Results and 2020 Forecasts
- Paul Volcker on the "Existential test" facing America
- Employment: December Diffusion Indexes
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Record Job Streak: A few Comments
- Schedule for Week of January 12, 2020
- AAR: December Rail Carloads down 9.2% YoY, Intermodal Down 9.6% YoY
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.1% to 2.3%
- Comments on December Employment Report
- December Employment Report: 145,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman: December Payrolls Preview
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- December Employment Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 214,000
- Four Bank Failures in 2019
- Houston Real Estate in December: Sales up 14.7% YoY, Inventory Up 3.6%, Record Sales Year
- Seattle Real Estate in December: Sales up 18.7% YoY, Inventory down 24.6% YoY
- ADP: Private Employment increased 202,000 in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Last Two Weeks in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales up 21% YoY, Inventory down 13% YoY
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.7% Year-over-year in November
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4 2019
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.0% in December
- Trade Deficit decreased to $43.1 Billion in November
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg
- Update: The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
- BEA: December Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.7 Million SAAR
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 16.8%
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: A Solid Year for Occupancy Rate in 2019, STR Projects further small Occupancy Decline in Q1 2020
- Schedule for Week of January 5, 2020
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.1% to 2.3%
- Construction Spending Increased in November
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4 to 4.7%
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.2 in December, Fifth Consecutive Month of Contraction
- Friday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
- Question #1 for 2020: How much will the economy grow in 2020?
- Question #2 for 2020: Will job creation in 2020 be as strong as in 2019?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 222,000
- Question #3 for 2020: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2020?