2019
1,427 posts
2019 1,427
December 2019
- Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in November
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.3% year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation rate start declining in 2020, or will it move more sideways (or slightly up) in 2020?
- Chicago PMI "Rose to 48.9 in December"
- Question #5 for 2020: How much will wages increase in 2020?
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly"
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November"
- Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg
- December 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 67 Institutions, Q4 2019 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of December 29, 2019
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in November
- Question #6 for 2020: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2020? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2020?
- Question #7 for 2020: Will the Fed cut or raise rates in 2020, and if so, by how much?
- Question #8 for 2020: How much will RI increase in 2020? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2020?
- By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Question #9 for 2020: What will happen with house prices in 2020?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 222,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
- Question #10 for 2020: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2020?
- "Chemical Activity Barometer Is Stable In December"
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Slowed in December
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in November
- Ten Economic Questions for 2020
- A few Comments on November New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 719,000 Annual Rate in November
- Chicago Fed "Index points to a rebound in economic growth in November"
- Monday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
- Schedule for Week of December 22, 2019
- BLS: November Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Illinois, Oregon and South Carolina
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.3% to 2.1%
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Decreased Further in December"
- Personal Income increased 0.5% in November, Spending increased 0.4%
- Q3 GDP at 2.1% Annual Rate
- Friday: Q3 GDP, Nov Personal Income and Outlays and More
- Comments on November Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.35 million in November
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity "Flat" in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 234,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 7.0% YoY, Active Inventory Down 20.7% YoY
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index continues to show modest growth"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index, Architecture Billings Index
- CAR on California November Housing: Sales up 5.6% YoY, Inventory down 22.5%
- Comments on November Housing Starts
- BLS: Job Openings "Edged up" to 7.3 Million in October
- Industrial Production Increased in November
- Housing Starts increased to 1.365 Million Annual Rate in November
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Job Openings
- Sacramento Housing in November: Sales Down 4.8% YoY, Active Inventory down 33.6% YoY
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 76 in December, Highest since 1999
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"
- Monday: Home Builder Survey, NY Fed Mfg
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q3
- Schedule for Week of December 15, 2019
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Slightly Year-over-year
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.0%
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in November
- Friday: Retail sales
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in November
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q3
- CoreLogic: 2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q3 2019
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased sharply to 252,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds
- Houston Real Estate in November: Sales up 2% YoY, Inventory Up 5%
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in November, Core PCE below 2%
- BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in November, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, CPI
- Seattle Real Estate in November: Sales up 21.7% YoY, Inventory down 21.1% YoY
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Small Business Optimism Index Increased in November
- "Mortgage Rates Snap Back to Lower Levels"
- Remembering Paul Volcker: 2005 Speech at Stanford
- FOMC Preview
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for October; Cash-Out Refinances Increase
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Sharply Year-over-year due to Timing of Thanksgiving
- Schedule for Week of December 8, 2019
- AAR: November Rail Carloads down 7.5% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.4% YoY
- Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 3% YoY, Inventory down 4% YoY
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.6% to 2.0%
- Comments on November Employment Report
- November Employment Report: 266,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman: November Payrolls Preview
- November Employment Preview
- Trade Deficit decreased to $47.2 Billion in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 203,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in October, Up 4.3% year-over-year
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 53.9% in November
- BEA: November Vehicles Sales increased to 17.1 Million SAAR
- ADP: Private Employment increased 67,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg
- Is the Future still Bright?
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.5% Year-over-year in October
- 30 Year Mortgage Rates at 3.75% Top Tier Scenarios
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Decreased in October
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.1 in November
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Sharply Year-over-year due to Timing of Thanksgiving
November 2019
- Schedule for Week of December 1, 2019
- November 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 65 Institutions
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%
- STR: Hotel RevPAR "Upcycle Over"
- Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in October
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in October compared to September
- Personal Income increased Slightly in October, Spending increased 0.3%, Core PCE increase 0.1%
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Decline 1.7% in October"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 213,000
- Q3 GDP Revised Up to 2.1% Annual Rate
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Personal Income & Outlays, Pending Home Sales, Beige Book
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in October
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Softened in November
- A few Comments on October New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 733,000 Annual Rate in October, New Cycle High in September
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in September
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Fed Chair Powell: "Building on the Gains from the Long Expansion"
- Mortgage Rates at 3.75% Fixed (Top Tier Scenarios)
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Slightly"
- Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October
- Chicago Fed "Index Suggests Economic Growth Slowed Further in October"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of November 24, 2019
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 33 states in October
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.4% to 1.9%
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline Modestly in November"
- One Year Ago: "Is a Recession Coming?"
- "Mortgage Rates Steady Despite Bond Market Weakness"
- Video: "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"
- Comments on October Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.46 million in October
- Philly Fed Manufacturing shows "Overall Growth in November"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 227,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- CAR on California October Housing: Sales up 1.9% YoY, Inventory down 18%
- FOMC Minutes: "Most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated"
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Rebounds After Two Down Months"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 9.3% YoY, Active Inventory Down 20.7% YoY
- Sacramento Housing in October: Sales Up 7.1% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 25% YoY
- BLS: October Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, California, Maine and South Carolina
- Comments on October Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 1.314 Million Annual Rate in October
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Holds Firm in November"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of November 17, 2019
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.3% to 1.5%
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"
- Industrial Production Decreased in October
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October
- Friday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Industrial Production
- Looking back: "The Cupboard is Full"
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly 25 Years"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 225,000
- Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in October, Core PCE below 2%
- NY Fed Q3 Report: "Household Debt Continues to Climb in Third Quarter as Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Grow"
- Fed Chair Powell: The Economic Outlook
- Houston Real Estate in October: Sales up 6% YoY, Inventory Up 7%
- BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in October, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in October
- Small Business Optimism Index Increased Slightly in October
- Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic up Slightly in 2019 Through September
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 3% Year-over-year in October
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in October
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update on Yield Curve
- Schedule for Week of November 10, 2019
- AAR: October Rail Carloads down 8.4% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.8% YoY
- Early Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.1%
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Seattle Real Estate in October: Sales up 7.6% YoY, Inventory down 9.3% YoY
- MBA 2020 Economic and Morgage Forecast: Forecasting 0.9% GDP Growth in 2020
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 211,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- First Look: 2020 Housing Forecasts
- Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 7% YoY, Inventory up 6% YoY
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 54.7% in October
- BLS: Job Openings "Edged down" to 7.0 Million in September
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.5% Year-over-year in September
- Trade Deficit decreased to $52.5 Billion in September
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Non-Mfg
- BEA: October Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.6 Million SAAR
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in September compared to August
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for September: "Early-Stage Delinquencies Continue to Rise Among Purchase Loans"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year, RevPAR upcycle Near End
- Schedule for Week of November 3, 2019
- Comments on October Employment Report
- Construction Spending Increased in October, Down 2.0% YoY
- ISM Manufacturing index at 48.3 in October
- October Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs Added ex-Census, 3.6% Unemployment Rate
October 2019
- Friday: Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in September
- October Employment Preview: Take the Under
- Q3 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.2%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 218,000
- Thursday: Personal Income & Outlays, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Statement: 25bp Decrease
- Q3 GDP: Investment
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.9% Annualized Rate in Q3
- ADP: Private Employment increased 125,000 in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: GDP, FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- HVS: Q3 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Rise 1.5% in September"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Pending Home Sales
- FOMC Preview
- Dallas Fed: "Pace of Texas Manufacturing Expansion Slows"
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in September"
- Sunday Night Futures
- October 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 71 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of October 27, 2019
- My Slide Deck: "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2.0%
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in September
- Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Seasonally in September, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest Since 2005
- A few Comments on September New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Eased Slightly in October"
- New Home Sales decreased to 701,000 Annual Rate in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 212,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in September
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index downturn moderates as challenging conditions continue"
- FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2 Percent in August; Up 4.6 Percent from Last Year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FHFA House Prices, Architecture Billings Index
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index indicates tighter conditions in October
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Strengthened in October"
- Comments on September Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.38 million in September
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up 13.8% YoY, Active Inventory Down 16.3% YoY
- Real GDP Annual and Quarterly
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- The Impact of the GM Strike on October Employment
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of October 20, 2019
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%
- BLS: September Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, California, Illinois, New Jersey and South Carolina
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in September
- Comments on September Housing Starts
- Philly Fed Manufacturing shows slow Growth in October
- Industrial Production Decreased in September
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.256 Million Annual Rate in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 214,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Industrial Production
- CAR on California Housing: Low Rates "Bolster" Sales in September
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Hits 20-Month High"
- Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Survey
- Housing and Recessions
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew slightly in New York State"
- Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Oil Prices
- Sunday Night Futures
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 5% Year-over-year in September
- Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019
- Sacramento Housing in September: Sales Up 5.7% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 24% YoY
- Q3 GDP Forecast: Just Under 2%
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in September
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- House Prices to National Average Wage Index
- Houston Real Estate in September: Sales up 9.5% YoY, Inventory Up 7%
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in September, Core PCE below 2%
- Cost of Living Adjustment increases 1.6% in 2020, Contribution Base increased to $137,700
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 210,000
- BLS: CPI unchanged in September, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Minutes: "More concerned about risks associated with trade tensions and adverse geopolitical developments"
- BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 7.1 Million in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Job Openings, FOMC Minutes
- Seattle Real Estate in September: Sales up 12.3% YoY, Inventory down Slightly YoY
- Fed Chair Powell: "Data-Dependent Monetary Policy in an Evolving Economy"
- 2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business
- Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales up 14% YoY, Inventory up 22% YoY
- Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in September
- Tuesday: Small Business Optimism, PPI, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- A few comments on WaPo story: "Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for August: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate "Dipped" Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of October 6, 2019
- AAR: September Rail Carloads down 7.0% YoY, Intermodal Down 4.6% YoY
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Just Under 2%
- Trade Deficit increased to $54.9 Billion in August
- Comments on September Employment Report
- September Employment Report: 136,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Goldman: September Payrolls Preview
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate Mixed in Q3 2019
- September Employment Preview
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 52.6% in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 219,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg
- Reminder on Temporary Decennial Census Hiring; Expect about 15,000 Temp Jobs in September Report
- Lawler: “Off-Calendar” Census Population Projection Update Coming; To Include Alternative Migration Scenarios
- BEA: September Vehicles Sales increased to 17.2 Million SAAR
- ADP: Private Employment increased 135,000 in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Vehicle Sales
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 16.8%
- Construction Spending Increased Slightly in August, Down 1.9% YoY
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.8 in September
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
September 2019
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in August
- Chicago PMI "Drifts to 47.1 in September", Lowest Quarter since 2009
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues"
- September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.8 Million SAAR
- Sunday Night Futures
- Sept 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 74 Institutions, Q3 2019 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of September 29, 2019
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 4.7%
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 40 states in August
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in August, Spending increased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in August
- Merrill on September Employment
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Edged Down in September"
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Grow 1.6% in August"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 213,000
- Q2 GDP Third Estimate: 2.0% Annual Rate
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- "Chemical Activity Barometer Rises in September"
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in August compared to July
- A few Comments on August New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 713,000 Annual Rate in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- FHFA House Price Index Up 5.0% Year-over-year
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Softened in September"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- NAHB: "55+ Housing Market Remains Solid in Second Quarter"
- Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in August, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest Since 2005
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in August"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Unchanged Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of September 22, 2019
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q2
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q2
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%
- BLS: August Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Illinois, Maine and New Jersey
- CoreLogic: 2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q2 2019
- Friday: Q2 Flow of Funds
- Revisiting: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked?
- Comments on August Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.49 million in August
- Philly Fed Manufacturing shows Continued Expansion in September, At Slower Pace
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 208,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: 25bp Decrease
- AIA: "Substantial Decline in Architecture Billings"
- Comments on August Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increase to 1.364 Million Annual Rate in August, Highest in 12 Years
- MBA: Mortgage Applications "Flat" in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
- CAR on California: "Low interest rates boost California housing market"
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in September "
- Industrial Production Increased in August
- Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 8.6% YoY, Active Inventory Down 16.6% YoY
- Update: Predicting the Next Recession
- Hotels: Some Analyis of Short Term Rentals; Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of September 15, 2019
- "Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse"
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%
- Sacramento Housing in August: Sales Down 6.5% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 22% YoY
- Retail Sales increased 0.4% in August
- Friday: Retail Sales
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in August
- Early Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in August, Core PCE below 2%
- BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in August, Core CPI increased 0.3%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 204,000
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
- Merrill on Retail "Consumer demand pulled back in August"
- Houston Real Estate in August: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory Up 8%
- Employment: August Diffusion Indexes
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: PPI
- Port of Los Angeles: Imports increased, Exports decreased in August
- Seattle Real Estate in August: Sales up 5.1% YoY, Inventory up 25% YoY from Low Levels
- BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 7.2 Million in July
- Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in August
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic up Slightly in 2019 Through July
- Update on Decennial Census Hiring
- AAR: August Rail Carloads down 4.6% YoY, Intermodal Down 5.4% YoY
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for July: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of September 8, 2019
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales up 1.4% YoY, Inventory up 37% YoY
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-high 1%
- Comments on August Employment Report
- August Employment Report: 105,000 Jobs Added Ex-Census, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- Goldman: August Payrolls Preview
- August Employment Preview
- BEA: August Vehicles Sales increased to 17.0 Million SAAR
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.4% in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 217,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 195,000 in August
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg Index
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight"
- BLS: Employment Projections: 2018-2028
- Trade Deficit decreased to $54.0 Billion in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- "Mortgage Rates Set Another Long-Term Low"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 20% Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Increased Slightly in July, Down 2.7% YoY
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.1 in August
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Looking Ahead August NFP: Decennial Census Hiring and August Employment Revisions
- August 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions
August 2019
- Schedule for Week of September 1, 2019
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in July, Lowest Since June 2007
- Hurricanes and Economic Data
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Personal Income increased 0.1% in July, Spending increased 0.6%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Decline 2.5% in July"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 215,000
- Q2 GDP Revised Down to 2.0% Annual Rate
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Black Knight on "Tappable Equity"
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Lower YoY Price Gains in July compared to June
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- 2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business
- "Chemical Activity Barometer Down in August"
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Was Moderate in August"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.1% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate declined in July
- Merrill and Goldman on Housing
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Picks Up Pace"
- Chicago Fed "Index points to slower economic growth in July"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of August 25, 2019
- Lawler: Updated “Demographic” Outlook Using Recent Population Estimates by Age
- A few Comments on July New Home Sales
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Fed Chair Powell: "Challenges for Monetary Policy"
- New Home Sales decreased to 635,000 Annual Rate in July, Sales in June revised up to New Cycle High
- Friday: New Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in July
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Declined in August"
- Black Knight: "Mortgage Delinquencies See Strong Recovery from June Spike"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Minutes: A Wide Range of Views
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Continues Its Streak of Soft Readings"
- Comments on July Existing Home Sales
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 501,000 jobs
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.42 million in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, BLS Preliminary Benchmark Revision and More
- "ATA Truck Tonnage Index Surged 6.6% in July"
- Update: The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- 30 Year Fixed Mortgage: 3.5% to 3.625%
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Los Angeles Area Home Sales Unchanged YoY in July, Inventory Down 1% YoY
- The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
- Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 10% YoY, Active Inventory Down 14% YoY
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of August 18, 2019
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
- Sacramento Housing in July: Sales Up 6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 16% YoY
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- BLS: July Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Arkansas, Maine and New Jersey
- Comments on July Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decline to 1.191 Million Annual Rate in July
- Friday: Housing Starts
- Earlier: NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys
- CAR on California: "California home sales perk up in July"
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Trending Higher as Interest Rates Move Lower"
- Industrial Production Decreased in July
- Retail Sales increased 0.7% in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 220,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production, NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys, Homebuilder Confidence
- Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve
- Houston Real Estate in July: All Time Record One-Month Sales, Sales up 11% YoY, Inventory Up 10%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
- Early Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in July, Core PCE below 2%
- NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Climbs for 20th Straight Quarter as Mortgage Debt and Originations Rise"
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in the Second Quarter of 2019"
- Small Business Optimism Index Increased in July
- BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in July, Core CPI increased 0.3%
- Tuesday: CPI, Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
- Census Bureau to Hire "about 40,000" Temp Workers Now
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in July
- AAR: July Rail Carloads down 4.8% YoY, Intermodal Down 6.1% YoY
- Goldman: "A Bigger Growth Hit from the Trade War"
- Schedule for Week of August 11, 2019
- Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio
- BEA: July Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.8 Million SAAR
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%
- Merrill: "We are worried, Recession risks are rising"
- "No, Mortgage Rates Are No Longer "Sharply Lower" This Week!"
- Fannie and Freddie: Combined REO inventory declined in Q2, Down 18% Year-over-year
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Seattle Real Estate in July: Sales up 1.3% YoY, Inventory up 45% YoY from Low Levels
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales down 2% YoY, Inventory up 71% YoY
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Summer Teen Employment
- BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 7.3 Million in June
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.4% Year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Mortgage Rates Fall Sharply, 3.5% 30 Year Fixed
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 20% Year-over-year
- CalculatedRisk Speaks! "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 53.7% in July
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for June: Increase in Delinquencies due to Timing and Seasonal Factors
- Sunday Night Futures
- Only Voters can Stop Gun Violence
- Schedule for Week of August 4, 2019
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Trade Deficit decreased to $55.2 Billion in June
- Comments on July Employment Report
- July Employment Report: 164,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year, "Hotels’ rocket is losing fuel"
- Goldman: July Payrolls Preview
- July Employment Preview
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.2 in July
- Construction Spending Declined in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 215,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
July 2019
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June
- FOMC Statement: 25bp Decrease
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Mostly Lower YoY Price Gains in June compared to May
- Chicago PMI "Softens to 44.4 in July"
- ADP: Private Employment increased 156,000 in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment, Chicago PMI
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Climb 2.8% in June"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.4% year-over-year in May
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in June, Spending increased 0.3%
- Tuesday: Personal Income & Outlays, Case-Shiller House Prices, Pending Home Sales
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in June
- FOMC Preview
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Continues Moderate Expansion"
- Q2 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Sunday Night Futures
- July 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 75 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of July 28, 2019
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Real GDP Annual and Quarterly
- Q2 GDP: Investment
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.1% Annualized Rate in Q2
- Friday: Q2 GDP
- New Home Prices
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July"
- HVS: Q2 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 206,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Q2 Homeownership, Kansas City Fed Mfg
- New Home Sales and Recessions
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in June
- A few Comments on June New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 646,000 Annual Rate in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- "Chemical Activity Barometer Fell in July"
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Weakened in July"
- Comments on June Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.27 million in June
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Top Twenty Five GDP Quarters since 2000
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to Economic Growth near Historical Trend in June"
- Sunday Night Futures
- By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Schedule for Week of July 21, 2019
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1.4% to 2.3%
- BLS: June Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Arkansas, New Jersey, and Texas
- California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 4.7% YoY in Q2, Inventory up 11% YoY
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index Increased in July
- Sacramento Housing in June: Sales Down 13.6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 11% YoY
- Philly Fed Mfg "Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest Continued Growth in July"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 216,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Earlier Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight"
- CAR on California: "California home sales retreat in June"
- AIA: "Design services demand stalled in June, Project inquiry gains hit a 10-year low"
- Comments on June Housing Starts
- Housing Starts at 1.253 Million Annual Rate in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book
- Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 2.6% YoY, Active Inventory Down 4% YoY
- Fed Chair Powell: "Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era"
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Holds Firm in July"
- Industrial Production Unchanged in June
- Retail Sales increased 0.4% in June
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell
- House Prices and Median Household Income
- Ten Years Ago: The Sluggish Recovery Began
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity rebounded modestly in New York State"
- Sunday Night Futures
- 30 Year Mortgage Rates increase to 4.0%
- Schedule for Week of July 14, 2019
- Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in June
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% YoY in June, Core PCE below 2%
- First Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in June, Core CPI increased 0.3%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- FOMC Minutes: "the case for somewhat more accommodative policy had strengthened"
- Houston Real Estate in June: Sales down 5% YoY, Inventory Up 11%
- Merrill: "The Fed cut is on for July"
- Fed Chair Powell: "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Fed Chair Powell Testimony, FOMC Minutes
- Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales down 11% YoY, Inventory up 89% YoY
- BLS: Job Openings "Mostly Unchanged" at 7.3 Million in May
- Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in June
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Seattle Real Estate in June: Sales down 3.5% YoY, Inventory up 69% YoY from Low Levels
- House Prices to National Average Wage Index
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 12% Year-over-year in June, Near All Time High
- Merrill: "Data cools call for July cuts"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Schedule for Week of July 7, 2019
- AAR: June Rail Carloads down 5.3% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.2% YoY
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
- Comments on June Employment Report
- June Employment Report: 224,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate Mostly Unchanged in Q2 2019
- Goldman: June Payrolls Preview
- BEA: June Vehicles Sales decrease to 17.3 Million SAAR
- June Employment Preview
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.1% in June
- Trade Deficit increased to $55.5 Billion in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 221,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 102,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg Index
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 16.8%
- The Longest Expansions in U.S. History
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in May
- 30 Year Mortgage Rates at 3.875%
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Declined in May
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.7 in June
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May: Record Low National Delinquency Rate, Early Delinquency Rate Increasing
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
June 2019
- June 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions, Q2 2019 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of June 30, 2019
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May, Lowest Since July 2007
- Earlier: Chicago PMI "First sub-50 reading since January 2017"
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in May
- Personal Income increased 0.5% in May, Spending increased 0.4%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.7%
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Flat"
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Bounce Back 1.1% in May"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 227,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Same YoY Price Gains in May as in April
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in June
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- "A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell"
- A few Comments on May New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 626,000 Annual Rate in May
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.5% year-over-year in April
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Speech
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows"
- Chicago Fed "Index points to a pickup in economic growth in May"
- Sunday Night Futures
- By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Schedule for Week of June 23, 2019
- BLS: Unemployment Rates in May at New Series Lows in Texas and Vermont
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Comments on May Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.34 million in May
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Key Data Releases Before Next FOMC Meeting
- Black Knight: Another Record Low for Mortgage Delinquencies in May
- Philly Fed Mfg "Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened" in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, "Patient" Removed
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
- AIA: "Architecture billings remain flat" in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
- Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales up 4% YoY, Active Inventory up 3% YoY
- Comments on May Housing Starts
- Housing Starts at 1.269 Million Annual Rate in May
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- CAR on California: "Lower interest rates perk up May home sales"
- FOMC Preview
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Solid in June Amidst Growing Economic Uncertainty"
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity took a sharp turn downward in New York State"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Sacramento Housing in May: Sales Down 6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 8% YoY
- Schedule for Week of June 16, 2019
- California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 2% YoY in May, Inventory up 15% YoY
- "Mortgage Rates Just Had Another Awesome Week"
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in May
- Retail Sales increased 0.5% in May
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
- How I Use the Weekly Unemployment Claims report
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 222,000
- CoreLogic: 2.2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q1 2019
- Houston Real Estate in May: Sales up 3% YoY, Inventory Up 10%
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% YoY in May, Core PCE below 2%
- BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in May, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in May
- U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2018
- Small Business Optimism Index increased in May
- Tuesday: PPI, Small Business Index
- Seattle Real Estate in May: Sales up 5.6% YoY, Inventory up 124% YoY from Low Levels
- The Record Job Streak: A couple of Comments
- BLS: Job Openings "Mostly Unchanged" at 7.4 Million in April
- AAR: May Rail Carloads down 2.1% YoY, Intermodal Down 5.9% YoY
- Monday: Job Openings
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in May
- Schedule for Week of June 9, 2019
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Negative in Q1
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1% to 2% range
- Comments on May Employment Report
- May Employment Report: 75,000 Jobs Added, 3.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman: May Payrolls Preview
- May Employment Preview
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q1
- Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales Up 4% YoY, Inventory up 98% YoY
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $50.8 Billion in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 218,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, Q1 Flow of Funds
- Quick comparison of ADP, ISM Non-Mfg Employment Index and BLS Report for the Month of May
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.9% in May
- ADP: Private Employment increased 27,000 in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Index, Beige Book
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- BEA: May Vehicles Sales increase to 17.3 Million SAAR
- Fed Chair Powell: Closely monitoring trade negotiations, Will act "as appropriate"
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in April
- Tuesday: Auto Sales, Fed Chair Powell Opening Remarks
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Almost 50% Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in April
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 52.1 in May
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: Record Low National Delinquency Rate
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- May 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 73 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of June 2, 2019
May 2019
- "Mortgage Rates Drop Well Into the High 3's"
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Lowest Since August 2007
- Still Not on Recession Watch
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: mid-1% Range
- Personal Income Increased 0.5% in April, Real PCE declined slightly
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- May Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sales Slow, Discounts Rise"
- Merrill on May NFP: "A modest slowing in employment activity"
- NAR: "Pending Home Sales Trail Off 1.5% in April"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 215,000
- Q1 GDP Revised Down to 3.1% Annual Rate
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in April
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.7% year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- The War on Data Continues
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of May 26, 2019
- Oil Prices Down Year-over-year
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range
- Housing and Recessions
- Merrill on the "Softening" Auto Sector
- "Mortgage Rates Drop Quickly as Market Panic Sets In"
- A few Comments on April New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: "Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued at a Modest Pace"
- New Home Sales decreased to 673,000 Annual Rate in April, March Revised up to New Cycle High
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Minutes: "A patient approach ... would likely remain appropriate for some time"
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in April
- AIA: "Slight rebound for architecture billings in April"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Chemical Activity Barometer Increased Slightly in May
- Comments on April Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.19 million in April
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased to Record Low in April
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
- The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in April"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Slightly Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of May 19, 2019
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
- Sacramento Housing in April: Sales Down 6% YoY, Active Inventory up slightly YoY
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1% to 2%
- BLS: Unemployment Rates in April at New Series Lows in Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin
- Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales up 6% YoY, Active Inventory up 7% YoY
- Comments on April Housing Starts
- CAR: "California home sales stumble into spring home buying season"
- Philly Fed Mfg "Current Indicators Suggest Continued Growth" in May
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.235 Million Annual Rate in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 212,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in April
- Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in April
- U.S. Births decreased in 2018, "Lowest number of births in 32 years"
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Posts Solid Gain in May"
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.5% in April
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity picked up significantly in New York State"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, NY Fed Mfg
- Los Angeles Area Home Sales Increased 1% YoY in April, Inventory up 10% YoY
- MBA: "Foreclosure inventory rate still at lowest level since 1995"
- NY Fed Q1 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 19th Straight Quarter, Now Nearly $1 Trillion Above Previous Peak"
- Small Business Optimism Index increased in April
- Tuesday: NY Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, Small Business Index
- "Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month"
- Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in April
- Sunday Night Futures
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Schedule for Week of May 12, 2019
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% in April
- BLS: CPI increase 0.3% in April, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- Friday: CPI
- California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 4% YoY in April, Inventory up 18% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- Trade Deficit Increased to $50.0 Billion in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, PPI
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to Record High for the 55+ Housing Market in Q1
- Houston Real Estate in April: Sales up 8% YoY, Inventory Up 14%
- Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Up 2% YoY, Inventory up 101% YoY
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic up Slightly in Q1 2019
- Seattle Real Estate in April: Sales unchanged YoY, Inventory up 124% YoY from Low Levels
- BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.5 Million in March
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.7% Year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year
- When will I make another "Big" economic call?
- How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: National Delinquency Rate Nearing Record Low
- Sunday Night Futures
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Schedule for Week of May 5, 2019
- AAR: April Rail Carloads down 0.9% YoY, Intermodal Down 3.9% YoY
- Comments on April Employment Report
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.5% in April
- April Employment Report: 263,000 Jobs Added, 3.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Goldman: April Payrolls Preview
- April Employment Preview
- BEA: April Vehicles Sales decline to 16.4 Million SAAR
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 230,000
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: National YoY House Price Gains in March similar to February
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Construction Spending decreased 0.9% in March
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 52.8 in April
- ADP: Private Employment increased 275,000 in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending, FOMC Announcement
April 2019
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 3.8% in March
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.0% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE
- Q1 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Slightly"
- Personal Income increased 0.1% in March, Spending increased 0.9%
- Sunday Night Futures
- April 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased slightly to 73 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of April 28, 2019
- For Fun: Jim the Realtor in 2009
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
- Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
- Q1 GDP: Investment
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.2% Annualized Rate in Q1
- Friday: Q1 GDP
- Merrill April Employment Report Forecast: 250K, 3.7%
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Grew More Modestly"
- HVS: Q1 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increased to 230,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Q1 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership
- Chemical Activity Barometer Increases in April
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in March
- New Home Prices
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Earlier Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Moderated in April"
- A few Comments on March New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 692,000 Annual Rate in March
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Comments on March Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.21 million in March
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in March"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of April 21, 2019
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Comments on February Housing Starts
- BLS: Unemployment Rates at New Series Lows in North Dakota, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Vermont
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.139 Million Annual Rate in March
- Friday: Housing Starts
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index Increased in April
- Philly Fed Mfg "Continued to Grow" in April
- Retail Sales increased 1.6% in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 192,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Slight to moderate", Labor Market "Tight"
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index backslides in March"
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $49.4 Billion in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, Beige Book
- CAR: "California home sales moderate in March"
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Edges Higher in April"
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in March
- Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales down 11% YoY, Active Inventory up 9% YoY
- Oil: Rig Counts increased Slightly
- Looking Back: What is a Depression?
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew modestly in New York State"
- Sunday Night Futures
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in March
- Schedule for Week of April 14, 2019
- The Longest Expansions in U.S. History
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
- Housing and Recessions
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Sacramento Housing in March: Sales Down 5% YoY, Active Inventory up 4% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 196,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- Houston Real Estate in March: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory Up 18%
- FOMC Minutes: "Patient approach", "Likely ... the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year"
- Key Measures Show Inflation about the same in March as in February on a YoY basis
- BLS: CPI increase 0.4% in March, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications up 13% YoY
- Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Minutes
- Seattle Real Estate in March: Sales down 7.8% YoY, Inventory up 136% YoY from Low Levels
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 42 states in February
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.1 Million in February
- Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in March
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 30% Year-over-year
- AAR: March Rail Carloads down 8.9% YoY, Intermodal Down 1.5% YoY
- Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales Down 16% YoY, Inventory up 92% YoY
- Sunday Night Futures
- Oil: "A big jump" in Rig Counts
- Schedule for Week of April 7, 2019
- BEA: March Vehicles Sales at 17.5 Million SAAR
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.5% to 2.0% Range
- Comments on March Employment Report
- March Employment Report: 196,000 Jobs Added, 3.8% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman: March Payrolls Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- March Employment Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 202,000
- "Low Mortgage Rates Had a Big Impact, But Now They're Moving Back Up"
- Merrill: March Employment Report Forecast
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.1% in March
- ADP: Private Employment increased 129,000 in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Survey
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 38 states in January
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate increased Sharply in Q1 2019
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.0% Year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales, Durable Goods and More
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in February
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate decreased in Q1 to 16.6%
- Construction Spending increased 1.0% in February
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 55.3 in March
- Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in February
- Monday: Retail Sales, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending
March 2019
- March 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list declined to 72 Institutions, Q1 2019 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of March 31, 2019
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q1 at 4.8%
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range
- A few Comments on February New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 667,000 Annual Rate in February
- Personal Income Increased 0.2% in February
- Friday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Up Slightly" in March
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Accelerated Moderately"
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 1.0% in February
- Q4 GDP Revised Down to 2.2% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 211,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller YoY House Price Gains in February
- March Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.9 Million SAAR
- Trade Deficit decreased to $51.1 Billion in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Comments on February Housing Starts
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.3% year-over-year in January
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.162 Million Annual Rate in February
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Case-Shiller House Prices, and More
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in February
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Continues to Grow"
- Chicago Fed "Index points to little change in economic growth in February"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of March 24, 2019
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%
- BLS: Unemployment Rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, North Dakota, Tennesse and Vermont
- Comments on February Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.51 million in February
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February
- Existing Home Sales for February: Upside Surprise (Surprise for others)
- Philly Fed Mfg "Improved" in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 221,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales down 7% YoY, Active Inventory up 10% YoY
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Balance Sheet Runoff Ends September, No Hikes in 2019
- AIA: "Billings Moderate in February Following Robust New Year"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
- CAR: "California home sales rebound in February"
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- "Mortgage Rates Hold 14-Month Lows"
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Sacramento Housing in February: Sales Down 10% YoY, Active Inventory up 16% YoY
- NAHB: Builder Confidence "Steady" in March
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of March 17, 2019
- LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in February
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Positive
- BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.6 Million in January
- Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew only slightly in New York State"
- Friday: Industrial Production, Job Openings, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- A few Comments on January New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 607,000 Annual Rate in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 229,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- Houston Real Estate in February: Sales up Slightly YoY, Inventory Up 17%
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- Construction Spending increased in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Durable Goods, PPI, Construction Spending
- Goldman: "The Housing Rebound"
- Key Measures Show Inflation about the same in February as in January on a YoY basis
- Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in February
- BLS: CPI increase 0.2% in February, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- Tuesday: CPI
- Seattle Real Estate in February: Sales Up 12.1% YoY, Inventory up 164% YoY from Low Levels
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q4
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Higher in 3 states in January; Lower in 3 States
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in January
- Sunday Night Futures
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Schedule for Week of March 10, 2019
- Fed Chair Powell: Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead
- AAR: February Rail Carloads down 2.7% YoY, Intermodal Down 0.9% YoY
- Comments on January Housing Starts
- Comments on February Employment Report
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.230 Million Annual Rate in January
- February Employment Report: 20,000 Jobs Added, 3.8% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Speech Fed Chair Powell
- Goldman: February Payrolls Preview
- February Employment Preview
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth decreased in Q4
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January
- CoreLogic: Homeowners with Negative Equity Increased by 35,000 in Q4 2018
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 223,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q4 Flow of Funds
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Slight to moderate", Labor Market "Tight"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales Down 7% YoY, Inventory up 105% YoY
- Trade Deficit increased to $59.8 Billion in December
- ADP: Private Employment increased 183,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, Beige Book
- A few Comments on December New Home Sales
- BEA: February Vehicles Sales at 16.6 Million SAAR
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.7% in February
- New Home Sales increased to 621,000 Annual Rate in December
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.4% Year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, ISM Non-Mfg Index
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 25% Year-over-year
- Q4 2018 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Construction Spending decreased in December
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of March 3, 2019
- Demographics: Renting vs. Owning
- Q1 GDP Forecasts: Starting Low
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 54.2 in February
- Personal Income decreased 0.1% in January, increased 1.0% in December
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Manufacturing
February 2019
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in January
- Q4 GDP: Investment
- Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Up Only Slightly"
- HVS: Q4 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 225,000
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4
- Thursday: Q4 GDP, Unemployment Claims and More
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in February
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller YoY House Price Gains in January
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 4.6% in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Pending Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Comments on December Housing Starts
- Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in December
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.078 Million Annual Rate in December
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in January
- February Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.6 Million SAAR
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues"
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in January"
- Sunday Night Futures
- February 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 76 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of February 24, 2019
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: High-1s, Low-2s, 2018 Annual GDP around 2.8%
- Fannie and Freddie: Combined REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 21% Year-over-year
- MBA: The Unemployment Rate and Mortgage Delinquency Rate
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- Comments on January Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.94 million in January
- Philly Fed Mfg "Weakened" in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Durable Goods
- Existing Home Sales for January: Take the Under
- California Existing Homes in January: "Home sales fall to lowest level in more than 10 years"
- FOMC Minutes: "A variety of considerations that supported a patient approach to monetary policy"
- Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales down 12% YoY, Active Inventory up 10% YoY
- AIA: "Strong start to 2019 for architecture billings"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Sacramento Housing in January: Sales Down 21% YoY, Active Inventory up 25% YoY
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
- Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic Declined Slightly in 2018
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases in February
- Tuesday: NAHB homebuilder survey
- The Housing Bubble, Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP
- Oil: Rig Counts Rose Again
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of February 17, 2019
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: High-1s, Low-2s, 2018 Annual GDP around 2.8%
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Dropped to 18-Year Low in the Fourth Quarter of 2018"
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.6% in January
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew modestly in New York State"
- Friday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- Q4 GDP Estimates Revised Down Sharply
- LA area Port Traffic in January; Imports Up YoY, Exports Down
- Retail Sales decreased 1.2% in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 239,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales, PPI
- Houston Real Estate in January: Sales declined 8% YoY, Inventory Up 17%
- Key Measures Show Inflation lower in January than in December on a YoY basis
- BLS: CPI unchanged in January, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI
- NY Fed Q4 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises as 2018 Marks the Ninth Year of Annual Growth in New Auto Loans"
- BLS: Job Openings Increased to Series High 7.3 Million in December
- Small Business Optimism Index decreased in January
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Q4 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
- "As more older Americans 'age in place,' millennials struggle to find homes"
- Goldman: When Will Inflation Rise Above 2%?
- Oil: Rig Counts Rebounded
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of February 10, 2019
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s
- AAR: January Rail Carloads up 1.7% YoY, Intermodal Up 0.5% YoY
- Seattle Real Estate in January: Sales Unchanged YoY, Inventory up 168% YoY from Low Levels
- Employment: January Diffusion Indexes
- A few Tips on Business Cycle Forecasting
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 234,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- BEA: Q4 GDP to be Released Feb 28th, And Census Update
- Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Down 18% YoY, Inventory up 106% YoY
- Trade Deficit decreased to $49.3 Billion in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit
- BEA: January Vehicles Sales at 16.6 Million SAAR, 2018 Annual Sales slightly higher than 2017
- Update: The Endless Parade of Recession Calls
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.7% in January
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.7% Year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: ISM non-Mfg Index
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for December
- Sunday Night Futures
- Lawler: Selected Operating Results from Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders
- Schedule for Week of February 3, 2019
- Oil: Another large drop in rig counts
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s
- Comments on January Employment Report
- Construction Spending increased in November
- ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 56.6 in January
- January Employment Report: 304,000 Jobs Added, 4.0% Unemployment Rate (Graphs added)
- January Employment Report: 304,000 Jobs Added, 4.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
January 2019
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in December
- Goldman: January Payrolls Preview
- January Employment Preview
- A few Comments on November New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 657,000 Annual Rate in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 253,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales (Yes!), Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in December, Lowest since 2007
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller House Price Gains in December YoY
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 2.2% in December
- ADP: Private Employment increased 213,000 in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment, Pending Home Sales, GDP (Postponed)
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Merrill on NFP
- Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Accelerates"
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in December"
- Sunday Night Futures
- January 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 78 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of January 27th
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for 13th Consecutive Quarter
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s
- Flying Blind: Data Held Hostage
- Friday: Durable Goods, New Home Sales (Postponed)
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
- LA area Port Traffic in December; Imports Up YoY, Exports Down
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Grow Modestly" in January, Negative Impact from Shutdown
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 199,000, Lowest since 1969
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
- Chemical Activity Barometer Declines in January
- AIA: "Architecture billings slow, but close 2018 with growing demand"
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Was Soft in January"
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Seasonally in December, Lowest Year-End this Century
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Richmond Fed, Architecture Billings Index
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Comments on December Existing Home Sales
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.99 million in December
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales for December: Take the Under
- Oil: A huge drop in rig counts
- Schedule for Week of January 20th
- Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales down 9% YoY, Active Inventory up 6% YoY
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s
- Consumer Sentiment Declined in January, Lowest since 2006
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Higher in 4 states in December; Lower in 3 States
- Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in December
- Friday: Industrial Production
- California Existing Homes in December: Sales Down 12% YoY, Inventory Up 31%
- Economic Comic Relief
- Philly Fed Mfg "Continued to Grow" in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 213,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts (Postponed), Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler; Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December: Big Drop
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "modest to moderate", Labor Market "Tight"
- Sacramento Housing in December: Sales Down 22% YoY, Active Inventory up 36% YoY
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Activity Index Highest Since 2010
- Wednesday: Retail Sales (Postponed), Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreases for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew slightly in New York State"
- Mortgages Rates: 30 Year Fixed at 4.5%
- Fed: Q3 2018 Household Debt Service Ratio at Series Low
- Housing Inventory Tracking
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- Schedule for Week of January 13th
- Lawler: VERY Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
- Update on Shutdown impact on January Employment Report; Congress Approves Back Pay for Furloughed Employees
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s, Estimate of Shutdown Impact on GDP
- Key Measures Show Inflation about the same in December as in November on YoY Basis
- BLS: CPI declined 0.1% in December, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Friday: CPI
- BLS: "Does the partial government shutdown impact BLS data or release dates?"
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in November
- Update: The Impact of the Government Shutdown on the January Employment Report
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Fed Chair Powell
- Houston Real Estate in December: Sales declined 4.1% YoY, Inventory Up 13%
- FOMC Minutes: "Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming"
- No Bank Failures in 2018; First Time since 2006
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Lawler: Some Early Realtor/MLS Based Reports on Home Sales and Active Listings for December
- Seattle Area Real Estate in December: Sales Down 20% YoY, Inventory up 169% YoY
- Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales Down 17% YoY, Inventory up 82% YoY
- BLS: Job Openings decrease to 6.9 Million in November
- Small Business Optimism Index decreased in December
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Trade Deficit (Postponed)
- Oil Rigs Declined, More Expected
- Question #1 for 2019: Will Mr. Trump negatively impact the economy in 2019?
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 57.6% in December
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Impact of the Government Shutdown on the January Employment Report
- Schedule for Week of January 6th
- AAR: December Rail Carloads up 2.9% YoY, Intermodal Up 5.0% YoY
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- How can the unemployment rate increase if the economy is adding so many jobs?
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s
- Comments on December Employment Report
- December Employment Report: 312,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman: December Payrolls Preview
- December Employment Preview
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 16.7%
- ISM Manufacturing index Decreased Sharply to 54.1 in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 231,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 271,000 in December
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Survey, Auto Sales, and More
- Question #2 for 2019: How much will the economy grow in 2019?
- Question #3 for 2019: Will job creation in 2019 be as strong as in 2018?
- Question #4 for 2019: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2019?
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.5 million annual rate in December
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.1% Year-over-year in November
- Question #5 for 2019: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2019? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2019?
- Question #6 for 2019: Will the Fed raise rates in 2019, and if so, by how much?