The Curious Engineer

Calculated Risk

2019

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2019 1,427

December 2019

  1. Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019
  2. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  3. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in November
  4. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.3% year-over-year in October
  5. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  6. Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation rate start declining in 2020, or will it move more sideways (or slightly up) in 2020?
  7. Chicago PMI "Rose to 48.9 in December"
  8. Question #5 for 2020: How much will wages increase in 2020?
  9. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly"
  10. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November"
  11. Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg
  12. December 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 67 Institutions, Q4 2019 Transition Matrix
  13. Schedule for Week of December 29, 2019
  14. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  15. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in November
  16. Question #6 for 2020: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2020? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2020?
  17. Question #7 for 2020: Will the Fed cut or raise rates in 2020, and if so, by how much?
  18. Question #8 for 2020: How much will RI increase in 2020? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2020?
  19. By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  20. Question #9 for 2020: What will happen with house prices in 2020?
  21. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 222,000
  22. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  23. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
  24. Question #10 for 2020: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2020?
  25. "Chemical Activity Barometer Is Stable In December"
  26. Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Slowed in December
  27. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in November
  28. Ten Economic Questions for 2020
  29. A few Comments on November New Home Sales
  30. New Home Sales at 719,000 Annual Rate in November
  31. Chicago Fed "Index points to a rebound in economic growth in November"
  32. Monday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods
  33. Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
  34. Schedule for Week of December 22, 2019
  35. BLS: November Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Illinois, Oregon and South Carolina
  36. Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.3% to 2.1%
  37. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Decreased Further in December"
  38. Personal Income increased 0.5% in November, Spending increased 0.4%
  39. Q3 GDP at 2.1% Annual Rate
  40. Friday: Q3 GDP, Nov Personal Income and Outlays and More
  41. Comments on November Existing Home Sales
  42. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.35 million in November
  43. Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity "Flat" in December
  44. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 234,000
  45. Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  46. Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 7.0% YoY, Active Inventory Down 20.7% YoY
  47. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
  48. AIA: "Architecture Billings Index continues to show modest growth"
  49. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  50. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index, Architecture Billings Index
  51. CAR on California November Housing: Sales up 5.6% YoY, Inventory down 22.5%
  52. Comments on November Housing Starts
  53. BLS: Job Openings "Edged up" to 7.3 Million in October
  54. Industrial Production Increased in November
  55. Housing Starts increased to 1.365 Million Annual Rate in November
  56. Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Job Openings
  57. Sacramento Housing in November: Sales Down 4.8% YoY, Active Inventory down 33.6% YoY
  58. NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 76 in December, Highest since 1999
  59. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"
  60. Monday: Home Builder Survey, NY Fed Mfg
  61. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q3
  62. Schedule for Week of December 15, 2019
  63. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Slightly Year-over-year
  64. Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.0%
  65. Retail Sales increased 0.2% in November
  66. Friday: Retail sales
  67. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in November
  68. Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q3
  69. CoreLogic: 2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q3 2019
  70. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased sharply to 252,000
  71. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds
  72. Houston Real Estate in November: Sales up 2% YoY, Inventory Up 5%
  73. FOMC Projections and Press Conference
  74. FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
  75. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in November, Core PCE below 2%
  76. BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in November, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  77. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  78. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, CPI
  79. Seattle Real Estate in November: Sales up 21.7% YoY, Inventory down 21.1% YoY
  80. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  81. Small Business Optimism Index Increased in November
  82. "Mortgage Rates Snap Back to Lower Levels"
  83. Remembering Paul Volcker: 2005 Speech at Stanford
  84. FOMC Preview
  85. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for October; Cash-Out Refinances Increase
  86. Sunday Night Futures
  87. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Sharply Year-over-year due to Timing of Thanksgiving
  88. Schedule for Week of December 8, 2019
  89. AAR: November Rail Carloads down 7.5% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.4% YoY
  90. Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 3% YoY, Inventory down 4% YoY
  91. Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.6% to 2.0%
  92. Comments on November Employment Report
  93. November Employment Report: 266,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate
  94. Friday: Employment Report
  95. Goldman: November Payrolls Preview
  96. November Employment Preview
  97. Trade Deficit decreased to $47.2 Billion in October
  98. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 203,000
  99. Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
  100. Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in October, Up 4.3% year-over-year
  101. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 53.9% in November
  102. BEA: November Vehicles Sales increased to 17.1 Million SAAR
  103. ADP: Private Employment increased 67,000 in November
  104. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  105. Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg
  106. Is the Future still Bright?
  107. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.5% Year-over-year in October
  108. 30 Year Mortgage Rates at 3.75% Top Tier Scenarios
  109. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
  110. Construction Spending Decreased in October
  111. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.1 in November
  112. Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
  113. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Sharply Year-over-year due to Timing of Thanksgiving

November 2019

  1. Schedule for Week of December 1, 2019
  2. November 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 65 Institutions
  3. Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%
  4. STR: Hotel RevPAR "Upcycle Over"
  5. Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
  6. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased slightly in October
  7. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in October compared to September
  8. Personal Income increased Slightly in October, Spending increased 0.3%, Core PCE increase 0.1%
  9. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Decline 1.7% in October"
  10. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 213,000
  11. Q3 GDP Revised Up to 2.1% Annual Rate
  12. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  13. Wednesday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Personal Income & Outlays, Pending Home Sales, Beige Book
  14. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in October
  15. Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Softened in November
  16. A few Comments on October New Home Sales
  17. New Home Sales at 733,000 Annual Rate in October, New Cycle High in September
  18. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in September
  19. Tuesday: Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg
  20. Fed Chair Powell: "Building on the Gains from the Long Expansion"
  21. Mortgage Rates at 3.75% Fixed (Top Tier Scenarios)
  22. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Slightly"
  23. Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October
  24. Chicago Fed "Index Suggests Economic Growth Slowed Further in October"
  25. Sunday Night Futures
  26. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  27. Schedule for Week of November 24, 2019
  28. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 33 states in October
  29. Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.4% to 1.9%
  30. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline Modestly in November"
  31. One Year Ago: "Is a Recession Coming?"
  32. "Mortgage Rates Steady Despite Bond Market Weakness"
  33. Video: "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"
  34. Comments on October Existing Home Sales
  35. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.46 million in October
  36. Philly Fed Manufacturing shows "Overall Growth in November"
  37. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 227,000
  38. Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  39. CAR on California October Housing: Sales up 1.9% YoY, Inventory down 18%
  40. FOMC Minutes: "Most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated"
  41. AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Rebounds After Two Down Months"
  42. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  43. Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
  44. Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 9.3% YoY, Active Inventory Down 20.7% YoY
  45. Sacramento Housing in October: Sales Up 7.1% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 25% YoY
  46. BLS: October Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, California, Maine and South Carolina
  47. Comments on October Housing Starts
  48. Housing Starts increased to 1.314 Million Annual Rate in October
  49. Tuesday: Housing Starts
  50. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
  51. Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
  52. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Holds Firm in November"
  53. Sunday Night Futures
  54. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year
  55. Schedule for Week of November 17, 2019
  56. Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.3% to 1.5%
  57. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"
  58. Industrial Production Decreased in October
  59. Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October
  60. Friday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Industrial Production
  61. Looking back: "The Cupboard is Full"
  62. MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly 25 Years"
  63. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 225,000
  64. Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
  65. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in October, Core PCE below 2%
  66. NY Fed Q3 Report: "Household Debt Continues to Climb in Third Quarter as Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Grow"
  67. Fed Chair Powell: The Economic Outlook
  68. Houston Real Estate in October: Sales up 6% YoY, Inventory Up 7%
  69. BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in October, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  70. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  71. Wednesday: CPI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
  72. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in October
  73. Small Business Optimism Index Increased Slightly in October
  74. Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic up Slightly in 2019 Through September
  75. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 3% Year-over-year in October
  76. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in October
  77. Sunday Night Futures
  78. Update on Yield Curve
  79. Schedule for Week of November 10, 2019
  80. AAR: October Rail Carloads down 8.4% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.8% YoY
  81. Early Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.1%
  82. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  83. Seattle Real Estate in October: Sales up 7.6% YoY, Inventory down 9.3% YoY
  84. MBA 2020 Economic and Morgage Forecast: Forecasting 0.9% GDP Growth in 2020
  85. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 211,000
  86. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  87. First Look: 2020 Housing Forecasts
  88. Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 7% YoY, Inventory up 6% YoY
  89. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  90. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 54.7% in October
  91. BLS: Job Openings "Edged down" to 7.0 Million in September
  92. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.5% Year-over-year in September
  93. Trade Deficit decreased to $52.5 Billion in September
  94. Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Non-Mfg
  95. BEA: October Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.6 Million SAAR
  96. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in September compared to August
  97. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
  98. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for September: "Early-Stage Delinquencies Continue to Rise Among Purchase Loans"
  99. Sunday Night Futures
  100. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year, RevPAR upcycle Near End
  101. Schedule for Week of November 3, 2019
  102. Comments on October Employment Report
  103. Construction Spending Increased in October, Down 2.0% YoY
  104. ISM Manufacturing index at 48.3 in October
  105. October Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs Added ex-Census, 3.6% Unemployment Rate

October 2019

  1. Friday: Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
  2. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in September
  3. October Employment Preview: Take the Under
  4. Q3 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  5. Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.2%
  6. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 218,000
  7. Thursday: Personal Income & Outlays, Unemployment Claims
  8. FOMC Statement: 25bp Decrease
  9. Q3 GDP: Investment
  10. BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.9% Annualized Rate in Q3
  11. ADP: Private Employment increased 125,000 in October
  12. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  13. Wednesday: GDP, FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment
  14. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  15. HVS: Q3 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  16. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Rise 1.5% in September"
  17. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in August
  18. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Pending Home Sales
  19. FOMC Preview
  20. Dallas Fed: "Pace of Texas Manufacturing Expansion Slows"
  21. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in September"
  22. Sunday Night Futures
  23. October 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 71 Institutions
  24. Schedule for Week of October 27, 2019
  25. My Slide Deck: "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"
  26. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2.0%
  27. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  28. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in September
  29. Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Seasonally in September, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest Since 2005
  30. A few Comments on September New Home Sales
  31. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Eased Slightly in October"
  32. New Home Sales decreased to 701,000 Annual Rate in September
  33. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 212,000
  34. Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
  35. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in September
  36. AIA: "Architecture Billings Index downturn moderates as challenging conditions continue"
  37. FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2 Percent in August; Up 4.6 Percent from Last Year
  38. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  39. Wednesday: FHFA House Prices, Architecture Billings Index
  40. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index indicates tighter conditions in October
  41. Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Strengthened in October"
  42. Comments on September Existing Home Sales
  43. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.38 million in September
  44. Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg
  45. Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up 13.8% YoY, Active Inventory Down 16.3% YoY
  46. Real GDP Annual and Quarterly
  47. Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
  48. The Impact of the GM Strike on October Employment
  49. Sunday Night Futures
  50. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  51. Schedule for Week of October 20, 2019
  52. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%
  53. BLS: September Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, California, Illinois, New Jersey and South Carolina
  54. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
  55. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in September
  56. Comments on September Housing Starts
  57. Philly Fed Manufacturing shows slow Growth in October
  58. Industrial Production Decreased in September
  59. Housing Starts decreased to 1.256 Million Annual Rate in September
  60. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 214,000
  61. Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Industrial Production
  62. CAR on California Housing: Low Rates "Bolster" Sales in September
  63. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Hits 20-Month High"
  64. Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in September
  65. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  66. Wednesday: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Survey
  67. Housing and Recessions
  68. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew slightly in New York State"
  69. Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg
  70. Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
  71. Oil Prices
  72. Sunday Night Futures
  73. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 5% Year-over-year in September
  74. Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019
  75. Sacramento Housing in September: Sales Up 5.7% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 24% YoY
  76. Q3 GDP Forecast: Just Under 2%
  77. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in September
  78. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  79. House Prices to National Average Wage Index
  80. Houston Real Estate in September: Sales up 9.5% YoY, Inventory Up 7%
  81. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in September, Core PCE below 2%
  82. Cost of Living Adjustment increases 1.6% in 2020, Contribution Base increased to $137,700
  83. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 210,000
  84. BLS: CPI unchanged in September, Core CPI increased 0.1%
  85. Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
  86. FOMC Minutes: "More concerned about risks associated with trade tensions and adverse geopolitical developments"
  87. BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 7.1 Million in August
  88. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  89. Wednesday: Job Openings, FOMC Minutes
  90. Seattle Real Estate in September: Sales up 12.3% YoY, Inventory down Slightly YoY
  91. Fed Chair Powell: "Data-Dependent Monetary Policy in an Evolving Economy"
  92. 2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business
  93. Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales up 14% YoY, Inventory up 22% YoY
  94. Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in September
  95. Tuesday: Small Business Optimism, PPI, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  96. A few comments on WaPo story: "Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages"
  97. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
  98. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for August: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low
  99. Sunday Night Futures
  100. Hotels: Occupancy Rate "Dipped" Year-over-year
  101. Schedule for Week of October 6, 2019
  102. AAR: September Rail Carloads down 7.0% YoY, Intermodal Down 4.6% YoY
  103. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  104. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Just Under 2%
  105. Trade Deficit increased to $54.9 Billion in August
  106. Comments on September Employment Report
  107. September Employment Report: 136,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate
  108. Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
  109. Goldman: September Payrolls Preview
  110. Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate Mixed in Q3 2019
  111. September Employment Preview
  112. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 52.6% in September
  113. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 219,000
  114. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg
  115. Reminder on Temporary Decennial Census Hiring; Expect about 15,000 Temp Jobs in September Report
  116. Lawler: “Off-Calendar” Census Population Projection Update Coming; To Include Alternative Migration Scenarios
  117. BEA: September Vehicles Sales increased to 17.2 Million SAAR
  118. ADP: Private Employment increased 135,000 in September
  119. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  120. Wednesday: ADP Employment, Vehicle Sales
  121. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 16.8%
  122. Construction Spending Increased Slightly in August, Down 1.9% YoY
  123. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.8 in September
  124. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in August
  125. Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

September 2019

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in August
  2. Chicago PMI "Drifts to 47.1 in September", Lowest Quarter since 2009
  3. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues"
  4. September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.8 Million SAAR
  5. Sunday Night Futures
  6. Sept 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 74 Institutions, Q3 2019 Transition Matrix
  7. Schedule for Week of September 29, 2019
  8. Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 4.7%
  9. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%
  10. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 40 states in August
  11. Personal Income increased 0.4% in August, Spending increased 0.1%
  12. Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods
  13. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in August
  14. Merrill on September Employment
  15. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Edged Down in September"
  16. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Grow 1.6% in August"
  17. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 213,000
  18. Q2 GDP Third Estimate: 2.0% Annual Rate
  19. Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
  20. "Chemical Activity Barometer Rises in September"
  21. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in August compared to July
  22. A few Comments on August New Home Sales
  23. New Home Sales increased to 713,000 Annual Rate in August
  24. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  25. Wednesday: New Home Sales
  26. FHFA House Price Index Up 5.0% Year-over-year
  27. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  28. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
  29. Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Softened in September"
  30. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in July
  31. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
  32. NAHB: "55+ Housing Market Remains Solid in Second Quarter"
  33. Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in August, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest Since 2005
  34. Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in August"
  35. Sunday Night Futures
  36. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Unchanged Year-over-year
  37. Schedule for Week of September 22, 2019
  38. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q2
  39. Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q2
  40. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%
  41. BLS: August Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Illinois, Maine and New Jersey
  42. CoreLogic: 2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q2 2019
  43. Friday: Q2 Flow of Funds
  44. Revisiting: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked?
  45. Comments on August Existing Home Sales
  46. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.49 million in August
  47. Philly Fed Manufacturing shows Continued Expansion in September, At Slower Pace
  48. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 208,000
  49. Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  50. FOMC Projections and Press Conference
  51. FOMC Statement: 25bp Decrease
  52. AIA: "Substantial Decline in Architecture Billings"
  53. Comments on August Housing Starts
  54. Housing Starts increase to 1.364 Million Annual Rate in August, Highest in 12 Years
  55. MBA: Mortgage Applications "Flat" in Latest Weekly Survey
  56. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Housing Starts
  57. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
  58. CAR on California: "Low interest rates boost California housing market"
  59. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in September "
  60. Industrial Production Increased in August
  61. Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
  62. Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 8.6% YoY, Active Inventory Down 16.6% YoY
  63. Update: Predicting the Next Recession
  64. Hotels: Some Analyis of Short Term Rentals; Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  65. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"
  66. Sunday Night Futures
  67. FOMC Preview
  68. Schedule for Week of September 15, 2019
  69. "Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse"
  70. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%
  71. Sacramento Housing in August: Sales Down 6.5% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 22% YoY
  72. Retail Sales increased 0.4% in August
  73. Friday: Retail Sales
  74. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in August
  75. Early Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
  76. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in August, Core PCE below 2%
  77. BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in August, Core CPI increased 0.3%
  78. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 204,000
  79. Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
  80. Merrill on Retail "Consumer demand pulled back in August"
  81. Houston Real Estate in August: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory Up 8%
  82. Employment: August Diffusion Indexes
  83. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  84. Wednesday: PPI
  85. Port of Los Angeles: Imports increased, Exports decreased in August
  86. Seattle Real Estate in August: Sales up 5.1% YoY, Inventory up 25% YoY from Low Levels
  87. BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 7.2 Million in July
  88. Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in August
  89. Tuesday: Job Openings
  90. Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic up Slightly in 2019 Through July
  91. Update on Decennial Census Hiring
  92. AAR: August Rail Carloads down 4.6% YoY, Intermodal Down 5.4% YoY
  93. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for July: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low
  94. Sunday Night Futures
  95. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  96. Schedule for Week of September 8, 2019
  97. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  98. Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales up 1.4% YoY, Inventory up 37% YoY
  99. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-high 1%
  100. Comments on August Employment Report
  101. August Employment Report: 105,000 Jobs Added Ex-Census, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
  102. Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  103. Goldman: August Payrolls Preview
  104. August Employment Preview
  105. BEA: August Vehicles Sales increased to 17.0 Million SAAR
  106. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.4% in August
  107. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 217,000
  108. ADP: Private Employment increased 195,000 in August
  109. Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg Index
  110. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight"
  111. BLS: Employment Projections: 2018-2028
  112. Trade Deficit decreased to $54.0 Billion in July
  113. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  114. "Mortgage Rates Set Another Long-Term Low"
  115. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 20% Year-over-year
  116. Construction Spending Increased Slightly in July, Down 2.7% YoY
  117. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.1 in August
  118. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in July
  119. Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
  120. Looking Ahead August NFP: Decennial Census Hiring and August Employment Revisions
  121. August 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions

August 2019

  1. Schedule for Week of September 1, 2019
  2. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in July, Lowest Since June 2007
  3. Hurricanes and Economic Data
  4. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  5. Personal Income increased 0.1% in July, Spending increased 0.6%
  6. Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
  7. By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  8. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  9. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Decline 2.5% in July"
  10. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 215,000
  11. Q2 GDP Revised Down to 2.0% Annual Rate
  12. Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
  13. Black Knight on "Tappable Equity"
  14. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Lower YoY Price Gains in July compared to June
  15. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
  16. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  17. 2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business
  18. "Chemical Activity Barometer Down in August"
  19. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  20. Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Was Moderate in August"
  21. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.1% year-over-year in June
  22. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
  23. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate declined in July
  24. Merrill and Goldman on Housing
  25. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Picks Up Pace"
  26. Chicago Fed "Index points to slower economic growth in July"
  27. Sunday Night Futures
  28. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  29. Schedule for Week of August 25, 2019
  30. Lawler: Updated “Demographic” Outlook Using Recent Population Estimates by Age
  31. A few Comments on July New Home Sales
  32. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  33. Fed Chair Powell: "Challenges for Monetary Policy"
  34. New Home Sales decreased to 635,000 Annual Rate in July, Sales in June revised up to New Cycle High
  35. Friday: New Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell
  36. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in July
  37. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Declined in August"
  38. Black Knight: "Mortgage Delinquencies See Strong Recovery from June Spike"
  39. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000
  40. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  41. FOMC Minutes: A Wide Range of Views
  42. AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Continues Its Streak of Soft Readings"
  43. Comments on July Existing Home Sales
  44. Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 501,000 jobs
  45. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.42 million in July
  46. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  47. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, BLS Preliminary Benchmark Revision and More
  48. "ATA Truck Tonnage Index Surged 6.6% in July"
  49. Update: The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
  50. Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
  51. 30 Year Fixed Mortgage: 3.5% to 3.625%
  52. Housing Inventory Tracking
  53. Los Angeles Area Home Sales Unchanged YoY in July, Inventory Down 1% YoY
  54. The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
  55. Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 10% YoY, Active Inventory Down 14% YoY
  56. Sunday Night Futures
  57. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  58. Schedule for Week of August 18, 2019
  59. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
  60. Sacramento Housing in July: Sales Up 6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 16% YoY
  61. Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  62. BLS: July Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Arkansas, Maine and New Jersey
  63. Comments on July Housing Starts
  64. Housing Starts decline to 1.191 Million Annual Rate in July
  65. Friday: Housing Starts
  66. Earlier: NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys
  67. CAR on California: "California home sales perk up in July"
  68. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Trending Higher as Interest Rates Move Lower"
  69. Industrial Production Decreased in July
  70. Retail Sales increased 0.7% in July
  71. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 220,000
  72. Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production, NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys, Homebuilder Confidence
  73. Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve
  74. Houston Real Estate in July: All Time Record One-Month Sales, Sales up 11% YoY, Inventory Up 10%
  75. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
  76. Early Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
  77. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in July, Core PCE below 2%
  78. NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Climbs for 20th Straight Quarter as Mortgage Debt and Originations Rise"
  79. MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in the Second Quarter of 2019"
  80. Small Business Optimism Index Increased in July
  81. BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in July, Core CPI increased 0.3%
  82. Tuesday: CPI, Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
  83. Census Bureau to Hire "about 40,000" Temp Workers Now
  84. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in July
  85. AAR: July Rail Carloads down 4.8% YoY, Intermodal Down 6.1% YoY
  86. Goldman: "A Bigger Growth Hit from the Trade War"
  87. Schedule for Week of August 11, 2019
  88. Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio
  89. BEA: July Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.8 Million SAAR
  90. Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%
  91. Merrill: "We are worried, Recession risks are rising"
  92. "No, Mortgage Rates Are No Longer "Sharply Lower" This Week!"
  93. Fannie and Freddie: Combined REO inventory declined in Q2, Down 18% Year-over-year
  94. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  95. Seattle Real Estate in July: Sales up 1.3% YoY, Inventory up 45% YoY from Low Levels
  96. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000
  97. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  98. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May
  99. Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
  100. Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales down 2% YoY, Inventory up 71% YoY
  101. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  102. Summer Teen Employment
  103. BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 7.3 Million in June
  104. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.4% Year-over-year in June
  105. Tuesday: Job Openings
  106. Mortgage Rates Fall Sharply, 3.5% 30 Year Fixed
  107. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 20% Year-over-year
  108. CalculatedRisk Speaks! "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"
  109. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 53.7% in July
  110. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for June: Increase in Delinquencies due to Timing and Seasonal Factors
  111. Sunday Night Futures
  112. Only Voters can Stop Gun Violence
  113. Schedule for Week of August 4, 2019
  114. Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%
  115. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  116. Trade Deficit decreased to $55.2 Billion in June
  117. Comments on July Employment Report
  118. July Employment Report: 164,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
  119. Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
  120. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year, "Hotels’ rocket is losing fuel"
  121. Goldman: July Payrolls Preview
  122. July Employment Preview
  123. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.2 in July
  124. Construction Spending Declined in June
  125. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 215,000
  126. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending

July 2019

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June
  2. FOMC Statement: 25bp Decrease
  3. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Mostly Lower YoY Price Gains in June compared to May
  4. Chicago PMI "Softens to 44.4 in July"
  5. ADP: Private Employment increased 156,000 in July
  6. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  7. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment, Chicago PMI
  8. Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE
  9. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  10. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Climb 2.8% in June"
  11. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.4% year-over-year in May
  12. Personal Income increased 0.4% in June, Spending increased 0.3%
  13. Tuesday: Personal Income & Outlays, Case-Shiller House Prices, Pending Home Sales
  14. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in June
  15. FOMC Preview
  16. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Continues Moderate Expansion"
  17. Q2 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  18. Sunday Night Futures
  19. July 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 75 Institutions
  20. Schedule for Week of July 28, 2019
  21. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  22. Real GDP Annual and Quarterly
  23. Q2 GDP: Investment
  24. BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.1% Annualized Rate in Q2
  25. Friday: Q2 GDP
  26. New Home Prices
  27. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Largely Unchanged Again in July"
  28. HVS: Q2 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  29. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 206,000
  30. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Q2 Homeownership, Kansas City Fed Mfg
  31. New Home Sales and Recessions
  32. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in June
  33. A few Comments on June New Home Sales
  34. New Home Sales increased to 646,000 Annual Rate in June
  35. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  36. Wednesday: New Home Sales
  37. "Chemical Activity Barometer Fell in July"
  38. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Weakened in July"
  39. Comments on June Existing Home Sales
  40. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.27 million in June
  41. Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
  42. Top Twenty Five GDP Quarters since 2000
  43. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  44. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Economic Growth near Historical Trend in June"
  45. Sunday Night Futures
  46. By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  47. Schedule for Week of July 21, 2019
  48. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
  49. Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1.4% to 2.3%
  50. BLS: June Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Arkansas, New Jersey, and Texas
  51. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 4.7% YoY in Q2, Inventory up 11% YoY
  52. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index Increased in July
  53. Sacramento Housing in June: Sales Down 13.6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 11% YoY
  54. Philly Fed Mfg "Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest Continued Growth in July"
  55. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 216,000
  56. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
  57. Earlier Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight"
  58. CAR on California: "California home sales retreat in June"
  59. AIA: "Design services demand stalled in June, Project inquiry gains hit a 10-year low"
  60. Comments on June Housing Starts
  61. Housing Starts at 1.253 Million Annual Rate in June
  62. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  63. Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book
  64. Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 2.6% YoY, Active Inventory Down 4% YoY
  65. Fed Chair Powell: "Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era"
  66. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Holds Firm in July"
  67. Industrial Production Unchanged in June
  68. Retail Sales increased 0.4% in June
  69. Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell
  70. House Prices and Median Household Income
  71. Ten Years Ago: The Sluggish Recovery Began
  72. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity rebounded modestly in New York State"
  73. Sunday Night Futures
  74. 30 Year Mortgage Rates increase to 4.0%
  75. Schedule for Week of July 14, 2019
  76. Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
  77. Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
  78. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  79. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in June
  80. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% YoY in June, Core PCE below 2%
  81. First Look at 2020 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
  82. BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in June, Core CPI increased 0.3%
  83. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000
  84. Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
  85. FOMC Minutes: "the case for somewhat more accommodative policy had strengthened"
  86. Houston Real Estate in June: Sales down 5% YoY, Inventory Up 11%
  87. Merrill: "The Fed cut is on for July"
  88. Fed Chair Powell: "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress"
  89. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  90. Wednesday: Fed Chair Powell Testimony, FOMC Minutes
  91. Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales down 11% YoY, Inventory up 89% YoY
  92. BLS: Job Openings "Mostly Unchanged" at 7.3 Million in May
  93. Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in June
  94. Tuesday: Job Openings
  95. Seattle Real Estate in June: Sales down 3.5% YoY, Inventory up 69% YoY from Low Levels
  96. House Prices to National Average Wage Index
  97. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 12% Year-over-year in June, Near All Time High
  98. Merrill: "Data cools call for July cuts"
  99. Sunday Night Futures
  100. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  101. Schedule for Week of July 7, 2019
  102. AAR: June Rail Carloads down 5.3% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.2% YoY
  103. Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
  104. Comments on June Employment Report
  105. June Employment Report: 224,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
  106. Friday: Employment Report
  107. Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate Mostly Unchanged in Q2 2019
  108. Goldman: June Payrolls Preview
  109. BEA: June Vehicles Sales decrease to 17.3 Million SAAR
  110. June Employment Preview
  111. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.1% in June
  112. Trade Deficit increased to $55.5 Billion in May
  113. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 221,000
  114. ADP: Private Employment increased 102,000 in June
  115. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
  116. Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg Index
  117. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 16.8%
  118. The Longest Expansions in U.S. History
  119. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in May
  120. 30 Year Mortgage Rates at 3.875%
  121. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year
  122. Construction Spending Declined in May
  123. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.7 in June
  124. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May: Record Low National Delinquency Rate, Early Delinquency Rate Increasing
  125. Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

June 2019

  1. June 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions, Q2 2019 Transition Matrix
  2. Schedule for Week of June 30, 2019
  3. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May, Lowest Since July 2007
  4. Earlier: Chicago PMI "First sub-50 reading since January 2017"
  5. Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
  6. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in May
  7. Personal Income increased 0.5% in May, Spending increased 0.4%
  8. Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI
  9. Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.7%
  10. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Flat"
  11. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Bounce Back 1.1% in May"
  12. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 227,000
  13. Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
  14. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Same YoY Price Gains in May as in April
  15. Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in June
  16. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
  17. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  18. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May
  19. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  20. "A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell"
  21. A few Comments on May New Home Sales
  22. New Home Sales decreased to 626,000 Annual Rate in May
  23. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.5% year-over-year in April
  24. Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Speech
  25. Housing Inventory Tracking
  26. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows"
  27. Chicago Fed "Index points to a pickup in economic growth in May"
  28. Sunday Night Futures
  29. By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  30. Schedule for Week of June 23, 2019
  31. BLS: Unemployment Rates in May at New Series Lows in Texas and Vermont
  32. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  33. Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  34. Comments on May Existing Home Sales
  35. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.34 million in May
  36. Friday: Existing Home Sales
  37. Key Data Releases Before Next FOMC Meeting
  38. Black Knight: Another Record Low for Mortgage Delinquencies in May
  39. Philly Fed Mfg "Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened" in June
  40. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
  41. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
  42. FOMC Projections and Press Conference
  43. FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, "Patient" Removed
  44. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
  45. AIA: "Architecture billings remain flat" in May
  46. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  47. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
  48. Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales up 4% YoY, Active Inventory up 3% YoY
  49. Comments on May Housing Starts
  50. Housing Starts at 1.269 Million Annual Rate in May
  51. Tuesday: Housing Starts
  52. CAR on California: "Lower interest rates perk up May home sales"
  53. FOMC Preview
  54. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Solid in June Amidst Growing Economic Uncertainty"
  55. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity took a sharp turn downward in New York State"
  56. Sunday Night Futures
  57. Sacramento Housing in May: Sales Down 6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 8% YoY
  58. Schedule for Week of June 16, 2019
  59. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 2% YoY in May, Inventory up 15% YoY
  60. "Mortgage Rates Just Had Another Awesome Week"
  61. Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  62. Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in May
  63. Retail Sales increased 0.5% in May
  64. Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
  65. How I Use the Weekly Unemployment Claims report
  66. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  67. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 222,000
  68. CoreLogic: 2.2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q1 2019
  69. Houston Real Estate in May: Sales up 3% YoY, Inventory Up 10%
  70. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% YoY in May, Core PCE below 2%
  71. BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in May, Core CPI increased 0.1%
  72. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
  73. Wednesday: CPI
  74. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in May
  75. U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2018
  76. Small Business Optimism Index increased in May
  77. Tuesday: PPI, Small Business Index
  78. Seattle Real Estate in May: Sales up 5.6% YoY, Inventory up 124% YoY from Low Levels
  79. The Record Job Streak: A couple of Comments
  80. BLS: Job Openings "Mostly Unchanged" at 7.4 Million in April
  81. AAR: May Rail Carloads down 2.1% YoY, Intermodal Down 5.9% YoY
  82. Monday: Job Openings
  83. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in May
  84. Schedule for Week of June 9, 2019
  85. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Negative in Q1
  86. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  87. Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1% to 2% range
  88. Comments on May Employment Report
  89. May Employment Report: 75,000 Jobs Added, 3.6% Unemployment Rate
  90. Friday: Employment Report
  91. Goldman: May Payrolls Preview
  92. May Employment Preview
  93. Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q1
  94. Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales Up 4% YoY, Inventory up 98% YoY
  95. Trade Deficit Decreased to $50.8 Billion in April
  96. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 218,000
  97. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, Q1 Flow of Funds
  98. Quick comparison of ADP, ISM Non-Mfg Employment Index and BLS Report for the Month of May
  99. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight"
  100. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.9% in May
  101. ADP: Private Employment increased 27,000 in May
  102. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  103. Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Index, Beige Book
  104. Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
  105. BEA: May Vehicles Sales increase to 17.3 Million SAAR
  106. Fed Chair Powell: Closely monitoring trade negotiations, Will act "as appropriate"
  107. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in April
  108. Tuesday: Auto Sales, Fed Chair Powell Opening Remarks
  109. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Almost 50% Year-over-year
  110. Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in April
  111. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 52.1 in May
  112. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: Record Low National Delinquency Rate
  113. Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
  114. May 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 73 Institutions
  115. Schedule for Week of June 2, 2019

May 2019

  1. "Mortgage Rates Drop Well Into the High 3's"
  2. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Lowest Since August 2007
  3. Still Not on Recession Watch
  4. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  5. Q2 GDP Forecasts: mid-1% Range
  6. Personal Income Increased 0.5% in April, Real PCE declined slightly
  7. Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
  8. May Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sales Slow, Discounts Rise"
  9. Merrill on May NFP: "A modest slowing in employment activity"
  10. NAR: "Pending Home Sales Trail Off 1.5% in April"
  11. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 215,000
  12. Q1 GDP Revised Down to 3.1% Annual Rate
  13. Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
  14. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in April
  15. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April
  16. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May"
  17. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  18. Wednesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
  19. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
  20. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  21. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows"
  22. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.7% year-over-year in March
  23. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  24. The War on Data Continues
  25. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  26. Schedule for Week of May 26, 2019
  27. Oil Prices Down Year-over-year
  28. Q2 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range
  29. Housing and Recessions
  30. Merrill on the "Softening" Auto Sector
  31. "Mortgage Rates Drop Quickly as Market Panic Sets In"
  32. A few Comments on April New Home Sales
  33. Kansas City Fed: "Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued at a Modest Pace"
  34. New Home Sales decreased to 673,000 Annual Rate in April, March Revised up to New Cycle High
  35. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000
  36. Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
  37. FOMC Minutes: "A patient approach ... would likely remain appropriate for some time"
  38. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in April
  39. AIA: "Slight rebound for architecture billings in April"
  40. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  41. Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
  42. Chemical Activity Barometer Increased Slightly in May
  43. Comments on April Existing Home Sales
  44. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.19 million in April
  45. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased to Record Low in April
  46. Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
  47. The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
  48. Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
  49. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in April"
  50. Sunday Night Futures
  51. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Slightly Year-over-year
  52. Schedule for Week of May 19, 2019
  53. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
  54. Sacramento Housing in April: Sales Down 6% YoY, Active Inventory up slightly YoY
  55. Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1% to 2%
  56. BLS: Unemployment Rates in April at New Series Lows in Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin
  57. Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales up 6% YoY, Active Inventory up 7% YoY
  58. Comments on April Housing Starts
  59. CAR: "California home sales stumble into spring home buying season"
  60. Philly Fed Mfg "Current Indicators Suggest Continued Growth" in May
  61. Housing Starts Increased to 1.235 Million Annual Rate in April
  62. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 212,000
  63. Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  64. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in April
  65. Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in April
  66. U.S. Births decreased in 2018, "Lowest number of births in 32 years"
  67. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Posts Solid Gain in May"
  68. Industrial Production Decreased 0.5% in April
  69. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity picked up significantly in New York State"
  70. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  71. Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, NY Fed Mfg
  72. Los Angeles Area Home Sales Increased 1% YoY in April, Inventory up 10% YoY
  73. MBA: "Foreclosure inventory rate still at lowest level since 1995"
  74. NY Fed Q1 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 19th Straight Quarter, Now Nearly $1 Trillion Above Previous Peak"
  75. Small Business Optimism Index increased in April
  76. Tuesday: NY Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, Small Business Index
  77. "Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month"
  78. Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
  79. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in April
  80. Sunday Night Futures
  81. Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  82. Schedule for Week of May 12, 2019
  83. Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
  84. Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% in April
  85. BLS: CPI increase 0.3% in April, Core CPI increased 0.1%
  86. Friday: CPI
  87. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 4% YoY in April, Inventory up 18% YoY
  88. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  89. Trade Deficit Increased to $50.0 Billion in March
  90. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000
  91. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, PPI
  92. NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to Record High for the 55+ Housing Market in Q1
  93. Houston Real Estate in April: Sales up 8% YoY, Inventory Up 14%
  94. Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Up 2% YoY, Inventory up 101% YoY
  95. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  96. Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic up Slightly in Q1 2019
  97. Seattle Real Estate in April: Sales unchanged YoY, Inventory up 124% YoY from Low Levels
  98. BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.5 Million in March
  99. CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.7% Year-over-year in March
  100. Tuesday: Job Openings
  101. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year
  102. When will I make another "Big" economic call?
  103. How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring
  104. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: National Delinquency Rate Nearing Record Low
  105. Sunday Night Futures
  106. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  107. Schedule for Week of May 5, 2019
  108. AAR: April Rail Carloads down 0.9% YoY, Intermodal Down 3.9% YoY
  109. Comments on April Employment Report
  110. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.5% in April
  111. April Employment Report: 263,000 Jobs Added, 3.6% Unemployment Rate
  112. Friday: Employment Report
  113. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  114. Goldman: April Payrolls Preview
  115. April Employment Preview
  116. BEA: April Vehicles Sales decline to 16.4 Million SAAR
  117. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 230,000
  118. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: National YoY House Price Gains in March similar to February
  119. FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
  120. Construction Spending decreased 0.9% in March
  121. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 52.8 in April
  122. ADP: Private Employment increased 275,000 in April
  123. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  124. Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending, FOMC Announcement

April 2019

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
  2. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  3. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
  4. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 3.8% in March
  5. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.0% year-over-year in February
  6. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
  7. Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE
  8. Q1 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  9. Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Slightly"
  10. Personal Income increased 0.1% in March, Spending increased 0.9%
  11. Sunday Night Futures
  12. April 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased slightly to 73 Institutions
  13. Schedule for Week of April 28, 2019
  14. For Fun: Jim the Realtor in 2009
  15. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
  16. Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
  17. Q1 GDP: Investment
  18. BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.2% Annualized Rate in Q1
  19. Friday: Q1 GDP
  20. Merrill April Employment Report Forecast: 250K, 3.7%
  21. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Grew More Modestly"
  22. HVS: Q1 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  23. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increased to 230,000
  24. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Q1 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership
  25. Chemical Activity Barometer Increases in April
  26. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in March
  27. New Home Prices
  28. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  29. Earlier Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Moderated in April"
  30. A few Comments on March New Home Sales
  31. New Home Sales increased to 692,000 Annual Rate in March
  32. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
  33. Tuesday: New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg
  34. Housing Inventory Tracking
  35. Comments on March Existing Home Sales
  36. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.21 million in March
  37. Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in March"
  38. Monday: Existing Home Sales
  39. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  40. Schedule for Week of April 21, 2019
  41. Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  42. Comments on February Housing Starts
  43. BLS: Unemployment Rates at New Series Lows in North Dakota, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Vermont
  44. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.139 Million Annual Rate in March
  45. Friday: Housing Starts
  46. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index Increased in April
  47. Philly Fed Mfg "Continued to Grow" in April
  48. Retail Sales increased 1.6% in March
  49. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 192,000
  50. Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  51. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
  52. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Slight to moderate", Labor Market "Tight"
  53. AIA: "Architecture Billings Index backslides in March"
  54. Trade Deficit Decreased to $49.4 Billion in February
  55. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  56. Wednesday: Trade Deficit, Beige Book
  57. CAR: "California home sales moderate in March"
  58. NAHB: "Builder Confidence Edges Higher in April"
  59. Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in March
  60. Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
  61. Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales down 11% YoY, Active Inventory up 9% YoY
  62. Oil: Rig Counts increased Slightly
  63. Looking Back: What is a Depression?
  64. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew modestly in New York State"
  65. Sunday Night Futures
  66. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in March
  67. Schedule for Week of April 14, 2019
  68. The Longest Expansions in U.S. History
  69. Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  70. Housing and Recessions
  71. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  72. Housing Inventory Tracking
  73. Sacramento Housing in March: Sales Down 5% YoY, Active Inventory up 4% YoY
  74. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 196,000
  75. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
  76. Houston Real Estate in March: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory Up 18%
  77. FOMC Minutes: "Patient approach", "Likely ... the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year"
  78. Key Measures Show Inflation about the same in March as in February on a YoY basis
  79. BLS: CPI increase 0.4% in March, Core CPI increased 0.1%
  80. MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications up 13% YoY
  81. Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Minutes
  82. Seattle Real Estate in March: Sales down 7.8% YoY, Inventory up 136% YoY from Low Levels
  83. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 42 states in February
  84. BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.1 Million in February
  85. Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in March
  86. Tuesday: Job Openings
  87. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 30% Year-over-year
  88. AAR: March Rail Carloads down 8.9% YoY, Intermodal Down 1.5% YoY
  89. Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales Down 16% YoY, Inventory up 92% YoY
  90. Sunday Night Futures
  91. Oil: "A big jump" in Rig Counts
  92. Schedule for Week of April 7, 2019
  93. BEA: March Vehicles Sales at 17.5 Million SAAR
  94. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  95. Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.5% to 2.0% Range
  96. Comments on March Employment Report
  97. March Employment Report: 196,000 Jobs Added, 3.8% Unemployment Rate
  98. Friday: Employment Report
  99. Goldman: March Payrolls Preview
  100. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  101. March Employment Preview
  102. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 202,000
  103. "Low Mortgage Rates Had a Big Impact, But Now They're Moving Back Up"
  104. Merrill: March Employment Report Forecast
  105. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.1% in March
  106. ADP: Private Employment increased 129,000 in March
  107. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
  108. Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Survey
  109. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 38 states in January
  110. Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate increased Sharply in Q1 2019
  111. CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.0% Year-over-year in February
  112. Tuesday: Vehicle Sales, Durable Goods and More
  113. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in February
  114. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate decreased in Q1 to 16.6%
  115. Construction Spending increased 1.0% in February
  116. ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 55.3 in March
  117. Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in February
  118. Monday: Retail Sales, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending

March 2019

  1. March 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list declined to 72 Institutions, Q1 2019 Transition Matrix
  2. Schedule for Week of March 31, 2019
  3. Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q1 at 4.8%
  4. Q1 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range
  5. A few Comments on February New Home Sales
  6. New Home Sales increased to 667,000 Annual Rate in February
  7. Personal Income Increased 0.2% in February
  8. Friday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays
  9. Chemical Activity Barometer "Up Slightly" in March
  10. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Accelerated Moderately"
  11. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 1.0% in February
  12. Q4 GDP Revised Down to 2.2% Annual Rate
  13. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 211,000
  14. Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
  15. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller YoY House Price Gains in February
  16. March Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.9 Million SAAR
  17. Trade Deficit decreased to $51.1 Billion in January
  18. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  19. Wednesday: Trade Deficit
  20. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January
  21. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  22. Comments on February Housing Starts
  23. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.3% year-over-year in January
  24. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.162 Million Annual Rate in February
  25. Tuesday: Housing Starts, Case-Shiller House Prices, and More
  26. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in February
  27. Housing Inventory Tracking
  28. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Continues to Grow"
  29. Chicago Fed "Index points to little change in economic growth in February"
  30. Sunday Night Futures
  31. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  32. Schedule for Week of March 24, 2019
  33. Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%
  34. BLS: Unemployment Rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, North Dakota, Tennesse and Vermont
  35. Comments on February Existing Home Sales
  36. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.51 million in February
  37. Friday: Existing Home Sales
  38. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February
  39. Existing Home Sales for February: Upside Surprise (Surprise for others)
  40. Philly Fed Mfg "Improved" in March
  41. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 221,000
  42. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
  43. Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales down 7% YoY, Active Inventory up 10% YoY
  44. FOMC Projections and Press Conference
  45. FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Balance Sheet Runoff Ends September, No Hikes in 2019
  46. AIA: "Billings Moderate in February Following Robust New Year"
  47. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  48. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
  49. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
  50. CAR: "California home sales rebound in February"
  51. Housing Inventory Tracking
  52. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  53. "Mortgage Rates Hold 14-Month Lows"
  54. Goldman: FOMC Preview
  55. Sacramento Housing in February: Sales Down 10% YoY, Active Inventory up 16% YoY
  56. NAHB: Builder Confidence "Steady" in March
  57. Sunday Night Futures
  58. FOMC Preview
  59. Schedule for Week of March 17, 2019
  60. LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in February
  61. Q1 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Positive
  62. BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.6 Million in January
  63. Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February
  64. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew only slightly in New York State"
  65. Friday: Industrial Production, Job Openings, NY Fed Mfg Survey
  66. A few Comments on January New Home Sales
  67. New Home Sales decreased to 607,000 Annual Rate in January
  68. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 229,000
  69. Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
  70. Houston Real Estate in February: Sales up Slightly YoY, Inventory Up 17%
  71. Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
  72. Construction Spending increased in January
  73. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  74. Wednesday: Durable Goods, PPI, Construction Spending
  75. Goldman: "The Housing Rebound"
  76. Key Measures Show Inflation about the same in February as in January on a YoY basis
  77. Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in February
  78. BLS: CPI increase 0.2% in February, Core CPI increased 0.1%
  79. Tuesday: CPI
  80. Seattle Real Estate in February: Sales Up 12.1% YoY, Inventory up 164% YoY from Low Levels
  81. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q4
  82. BLS: Unemployment Rates Higher in 3 states in January; Lower in 3 States
  83. Retail Sales increased 0.2% in January
  84. Sunday Night Futures
  85. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  86. Schedule for Week of March 10, 2019
  87. Fed Chair Powell: Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead
  88. AAR: February Rail Carloads down 2.7% YoY, Intermodal Down 0.9% YoY
  89. Comments on January Housing Starts
  90. Comments on February Employment Report
  91. Housing Starts Increased to 1.230 Million Annual Rate in January
  92. February Employment Report: 20,000 Jobs Added, 3.8% Unemployment Rate
  93. Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Speech Fed Chair Powell
  94. Goldman: February Payrolls Preview
  95. February Employment Preview
  96. Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth decreased in Q4
  97. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January
  98. CoreLogic: Homeowners with Negative Equity Increased by 35,000 in Q4 2018
  99. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 223,000
  100. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q4 Flow of Funds
  101. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Slight to moderate", Labor Market "Tight"
  102. Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales Down 7% YoY, Inventory up 105% YoY
  103. Trade Deficit increased to $59.8 Billion in December
  104. ADP: Private Employment increased 183,000 in February
  105. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  106. Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, Beige Book
  107. A few Comments on December New Home Sales
  108. BEA: February Vehicles Sales at 16.6 Million SAAR
  109. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.7% in February
  110. New Home Sales increased to 621,000 Annual Rate in December
  111. CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.4% Year-over-year in January
  112. Tuesday: New Home Sales, ISM Non-Mfg Index
  113. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 25% Year-over-year
  114. Q4 2018 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  115. Construction Spending decreased in December
  116. Sunday Night Futures
  117. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  118. Schedule for Week of March 3, 2019
  119. Demographics: Renting vs. Owning
  120. Q1 GDP Forecasts: Starting Low
  121. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 54.2 in February
  122. Personal Income decreased 0.1% in January, increased 1.0% in December
  123. Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Manufacturing

February 2019

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in January
  2. Q4 GDP: Investment
  3. Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Up Only Slightly"
  4. HVS: Q4 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  5. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 225,000
  6. BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4
  7. Thursday: Q4 GDP, Unemployment Claims and More
  8. Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in February
  9. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller YoY House Price Gains in January
  10. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 4.6% in January
  11. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  12. Wednesday: Pending Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell
  13. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December
  14. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  15. Comments on December Housing Starts
  16. Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
  17. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in December
  18. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.078 Million Annual Rate in December
  19. Tuesday: Housing Starts, Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Richmond Fed Mfg
  20. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in January
  21. February Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.6 Million SAAR
  22. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues"
  23. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January
  24. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in January"
  25. Sunday Night Futures
  26. February 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 76 Institutions
  27. Schedule for Week of February 24, 2019
  28. Q4 GDP Forecasts: High-1s, Low-2s, 2018 Annual GDP around 2.8%
  29. Fannie and Freddie: Combined REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 21% Year-over-year
  30. MBA: The Unemployment Rate and Mortgage Delinquency Rate
  31. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  32. Comments on January Existing Home Sales
  33. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.94 million in January
  34. Philly Fed Mfg "Weakened" in February
  35. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
  36. Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Durable Goods
  37. Existing Home Sales for January: Take the Under
  38. California Existing Homes in January: "Home sales fall to lowest level in more than 10 years"
  39. FOMC Minutes: "A variety of considerations that supported a patient approach to monetary policy"
  40. Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales down 12% YoY, Active Inventory up 10% YoY
  41. AIA: "Strong start to 2019 for architecture billings"
  42. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  43. Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
  44. Sacramento Housing in January: Sales Down 21% YoY, Active Inventory up 25% YoY
  45. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
  46. Las Vegas: Convention Attendance and Visitor Traffic Declined Slightly in 2018
  47. NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases in February
  48. Tuesday: NAHB homebuilder survey
  49. The Housing Bubble, Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP
  50. Oil: Rig Counts Rose Again
  51. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year
  52. Schedule for Week of February 17, 2019
  53. Q4 GDP Forecasts: High-1s, Low-2s, 2018 Annual GDP around 2.8%
  54. MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Dropped to 18-Year Low in the Fourth Quarter of 2018"
  55. Industrial Production Decreased 0.6% in January
  56. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew modestly in New York State"
  57. Friday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey
  58. Q4 GDP Estimates Revised Down Sharply
  59. LA area Port Traffic in January; Imports Up YoY, Exports Down
  60. Retail Sales decreased 1.2% in December
  61. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 239,000
  62. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales, PPI
  63. Houston Real Estate in January: Sales declined 8% YoY, Inventory Up 17%
  64. Key Measures Show Inflation lower in January than in December on a YoY basis
  65. BLS: CPI unchanged in January, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  66. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  67. Wednesday: CPI
  68. NY Fed Q4 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises as 2018 Marks the Ninth Year of Annual Growth in New Auto Loans"
  69. BLS: Job Openings Increased to Series High 7.3 Million in December
  70. Small Business Optimism Index decreased in January
  71. Tuesday: Job Openings, Q4 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
  72. "As more older Americans 'age in place,' millennials struggle to find homes"
  73. Goldman: When Will Inflation Rise Above 2%?
  74. Oil: Rig Counts Rebounded
  75. Sunday Night Futures
  76. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year
  77. Schedule for Week of February 10, 2019
  78. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s
  79. AAR: January Rail Carloads up 1.7% YoY, Intermodal Up 0.5% YoY
  80. Seattle Real Estate in January: Sales Unchanged YoY, Inventory up 168% YoY from Low Levels
  81. Employment: January Diffusion Indexes
  82. A few Tips on Business Cycle Forecasting
  83. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 234,000
  84. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  85. BEA: Q4 GDP to be Released Feb 28th, And Census Update
  86. Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Down 18% YoY, Inventory up 106% YoY
  87. Trade Deficit decreased to $49.3 Billion in November
  88. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  89. Wednesday: Trade Deficit
  90. BEA: January Vehicles Sales at 16.6 Million SAAR, 2018 Annual Sales slightly higher than 2017
  91. Update: The Endless Parade of Recession Calls
  92. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.7% in January
  93. CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.7% Year-over-year in December
  94. Tuesday: ISM non-Mfg Index
  95. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  96. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
  97. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for December
  98. Sunday Night Futures
  99. Lawler: Selected Operating Results from Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders
  100. Schedule for Week of February 3, 2019
  101. Oil: Another large drop in rig counts
  102. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s
  103. Comments on January Employment Report
  104. Construction Spending increased in November
  105. ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 56.6 in January
  106. January Employment Report: 304,000 Jobs Added, 4.0% Unemployment Rate (Graphs added)
  107. January Employment Report: 304,000 Jobs Added, 4.0% Unemployment Rate
  108. Friday: Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Auto Sales

January 2019

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in December
  2. Goldman: January Payrolls Preview
  3. January Employment Preview
  4. A few Comments on November New Home Sales
  5. New Home Sales increased to 657,000 Annual Rate in November
  6. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 253,000
  7. Thursday: New Home Sales (Yes!), Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI
  8. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in December, Lowest since 2007
  9. FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
  10. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller House Price Gains in December YoY
  11. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 2.2% in December
  12. ADP: Private Employment increased 213,000 in January
  13. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  14. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment, Pending Home Sales, GDP (Postponed)
  15. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November
  16. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  17. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in November
  18. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  19. Merrill on NFP
  20. Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Accelerates"
  21. Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in December"
  22. Sunday Night Futures
  23. January 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 78 Institutions
  24. Schedule for Week of January 27th
  25. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for 13th Consecutive Quarter
  26. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s
  27. Flying Blind: Data Held Hostage
  28. Friday: Durable Goods, New Home Sales (Postponed)
  29. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  30. LA area Port Traffic in December; Imports Up YoY, Exports Down
  31. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Grow Modestly" in January, Negative Impact from Shutdown
  32. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 199,000, Lowest since 1969
  33. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
  34. Chemical Activity Barometer Declines in January
  35. AIA: "Architecture billings slow, but close 2018 with growing demand"
  36. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Was Soft in January"
  37. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Seasonally in December, Lowest Year-End this Century
  38. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  39. Wednesday: Richmond Fed, Architecture Billings Index
  40. Housing Inventory Tracking
  41. Comments on December Existing Home Sales
  42. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.99 million in December
  43. Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
  44. Existing Home Sales for December: Take the Under
  45. Oil: A huge drop in rig counts
  46. Schedule for Week of January 20th
  47. Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales down 9% YoY, Active Inventory up 6% YoY
  48. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s
  49. Consumer Sentiment Declined in January, Lowest since 2006
  50. BLS: Unemployment Rates Higher in 4 states in December; Lower in 3 States
  51. Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in December
  52. Friday: Industrial Production
  53. California Existing Homes in December: Sales Down 12% YoY, Inventory Up 31%
  54. Economic Comic Relief
  55. Philly Fed Mfg "Continued to Grow" in January
  56. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 213,000
  57. Thursday: Housing Starts (Postponed), Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
  58. Lawler; Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December: Big Drop
  59. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "modest to moderate", Labor Market "Tight"
  60. Sacramento Housing in December: Sales Down 22% YoY, Active Inventory up 36% YoY
  61. NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases in January
  62. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Activity Index Highest Since 2010
  63. Wednesday: Retail Sales (Postponed), Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book
  64. NAHB: Builder Confidence decreases for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3
  65. Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
  66. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew slightly in New York State"
  67. Mortgages Rates: 30 Year Fixed at 4.5%
  68. Fed: Q3 2018 Household Debt Service Ratio at Series Low
  69. Housing Inventory Tracking
  70. Sunday Night Futures
  71. Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
  72. Schedule for Week of January 13th
  73. Lawler: VERY Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
  74. Update on Shutdown impact on January Employment Report; Congress Approves Back Pay for Furloughed Employees
  75. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s, Estimate of Shutdown Impact on GDP
  76. Key Measures Show Inflation about the same in December as in November on YoY Basis
  77. BLS: CPI declined 0.1% in December, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  78. Friday: CPI
  79. BLS: "Does the partial government shutdown impact BLS data or release dates?"
  80. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in November
  81. Update: The Impact of the Government Shutdown on the January Employment Report
  82. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
  83. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Fed Chair Powell
  84. Houston Real Estate in December: Sales declined 4.1% YoY, Inventory Up 13%
  85. FOMC Minutes: "Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming"
  86. No Bank Failures in 2018; First Time since 2006
  87. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for November
  88. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  89. Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
  90. Lawler: Some Early Realtor/MLS Based Reports on Home Sales and Active Listings for December
  91. Seattle Area Real Estate in December: Sales Down 20% YoY, Inventory up 169% YoY
  92. Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales Down 17% YoY, Inventory up 82% YoY
  93. BLS: Job Openings decrease to 6.9 Million in November
  94. Small Business Optimism Index decreased in December
  95. Tuesday: Job Openings, Trade Deficit (Postponed)
  96. Oil Rigs Declined, More Expected
  97. Question #1 for 2019: Will Mr. Trump negatively impact the economy in 2019?
  98. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
  99. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 57.6% in December
  100. Sunday Night Futures
  101. The Impact of the Government Shutdown on the January Employment Report
  102. Schedule for Week of January 6th
  103. AAR: December Rail Carloads up 2.9% YoY, Intermodal Up 5.0% YoY
  104. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  105. How can the unemployment rate increase if the economy is adding so many jobs?
  106. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s
  107. Comments on December Employment Report
  108. December Employment Report: 312,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate
  109. Friday: Employment Report
  110. Goldman: December Payrolls Preview
  111. December Employment Preview
  112. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 16.7%
  113. ISM Manufacturing index Decreased Sharply to 54.1 in December
  114. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 231,000
  115. ADP: Private Employment increased 271,000 in December
  116. MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
  117. Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Survey, Auto Sales, and More
  118. Question #2 for 2019: How much will the economy grow in 2019?
  119. Question #3 for 2019: Will job creation in 2019 be as strong as in 2018?
  120. Question #4 for 2019: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2019?
  121. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.5 million annual rate in December
  122. CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.1% Year-over-year in November
  123. Question #5 for 2019: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2019? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2019?
  124. Question #6 for 2019: Will the Fed raise rates in 2019, and if so, by how much?

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