The Curious Engineer

Calculated Risk

2018

1,472 posts

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2018 1,472

December 2018

  1. Question #7 for 2019: How much will wages increase in 2019?
  2. Question #8 for 2019: How much will Residential Investment increase?
  3. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expands Modestly, Outlook Worsens"
  4. Sunday Night Futures
  5. December 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list declined to 77 Institutions, Q4 2018 Transition Matrix
  6. Schedule for Week of December 30th
  7. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s
  8. Question #9 for 2019: What will happen with house prices in 2019?
  9. Chicago PMI Decreased Slighly in December
  10. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 0.7% in November
  11. Friday: Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI
  12. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  13. Question #10 for 2019: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2019?
  14. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 43 states in November
  15. Data and the #TrumpShutdown
  16. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
  17. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales (Postponed)
  18. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar House Price Gains in November
  19. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October
  20. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  21. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Weakened in December"
  22. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in October
  23. Wednesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  24. A Christmas Present for UberNerds
  25. Ten Economic Questions for 2019
  26. Chicago Fed "Index Points to an Increase in Economic Growth in November"
  27. Sunday Night Futures
  28. Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2018
  29. Schedule for Week of December 23, 2018
  30. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 6 states in November; Idaho, Missouri, New York at New Series Lows
  31. Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s
  32. Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 4.8%
  33. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Slowed" in December
  34. Personal Income increased 0.2% in November, Spending increased 0.4%
  35. Government Shutdown: Economic Data Likely to be Delayed
  36. Q3 GDP Revised Down to 3.4% Annual Rate
  37. Friday: GDP, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Outlays
  38. California Existing Homes in November: Sales Down 13.4% YoY, Inventory Up 31%
  39. Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales down 8% YoY, Active Inventory up slightly YoY
  40. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in November
  41. Philly Fed Mfg "Indicators Remained Muted" in December
  42. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 214,000
  43. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
  44. Merrill and Goldman comments on Fed Rate Hike
  45. FOMC Projections
  46. FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike
  47. AIA: "Run of positive billings continues at architecture firms"
  48. Comments on November Existing Home Sales
  49. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.32 million in November
  50. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  51. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Announcement
  52. Housing Inventory Tracking
  53. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
  54. Duy: Fed Stuck In An Uncomfortable Situation
  55. Comments on November Housing Starts
  56. Housing Starts Increased to 1.256 Million Annual Rate in November
  57. Tuesday: Housing Starts
  58. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 17% YoY in November, Inventory up 27% YoY
  59. FOMC Preview
  60. NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines in December
  61. From the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew at a slower pace than in recent months in New York State"
  62. Monday: NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
  63. Sacramento Housing in November: Sales Down 7% YoY, Active Inventory up 23% YoY
  64. Schedule for Week of December 16, 2018
  65. Oil Rigs Declined Slightly, More Expected
  66. By Request, and Just For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  67. Q4 GDP Forecasts: High 2s
  68. Industrial Production Increased 0.6% in November
  69. Retail Sales increased 0.2% in November
  70. Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
  71. LA area Port Traffic Decreases YoY in November
  72. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  73. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 206,000
  74. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  75. Denver Real Estate in November: Sales Down 24% YoY, Inventory Up 47%
  76. Houston Real Estate in November: Sales Unchanged YoY, Inventory Up 9%
  77. Key Measures Show Inflation Picked Up Slightly on YoY Basis in November
  78. BLS: CPI unchanged in November, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  79. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  80. Wednesday: CPI
  81. A comment on Professor Shiller's "The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?"
  82. Goldman Forecast on 2019 Rate Hikes
  83. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  84. Small Business Optimism Index decreased in November
  85. "Mortgage rates at their lowest levels in several months"
  86. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q3
  87. AAR: November Rail Carloads Down 0.2% YoY, Intermodal Up 2.5% YoY
  88. BLS: Job Openings increase to 7.1 Million in October
  89. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for October
  90. Monday: Job Openings
  91. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year, On Pace for Record Year
  92. Schedule for Week of December 9, 2018
  93. Q4 GDP Forecasts
  94. Lawler: Some Early Realtor/MLS Based Reports on Home Sales and Active Listings for November
  95. Seattle Real Estate in November: Sales Down 20% YoY, Inventory up 135% YoY
  96. Comments on November Employment Report
  97. November Employment Report: 155,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
  98. Friday: Employment Report
  99. Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales Down 12% YoY, Inventory up 63% YoY
  100. Goldman: November Payrolls Preview
  101. November Employment Preview
  102. Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q3
  103. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 60.7% in November
  104. Trade Deficit increased to $55.5 Billion in October
  105. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 231,000
  106. ADP: Private Employment increased 179,000 in November
  107. CoreLogic: 2.2 million Homes still in negative equity at end of Q3 2018
  108. Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Non-Mfg, Q3 Flow of Funds
  109. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "modest or moderate", Labor Market "Tightened further"
  110. Lawler: US Death Rate Up, Life Expectancy Down in 2017
  111. Note: ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg Rescheduled to Thursday
  112. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  113. Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg, Beige Book
  114. Lawler: Excerpt from Toll Brothers Earnings Press Release
  115. November Vehicles Sales: 17.4 Million SAAR, On Pace to be unchanged in 2018
  116. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
  117. CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.4% Year-over-year in October
  118. Tuesday: Corelogic House Prices
  119. Year-to-Date Performance: Employment, Vehicle Sales, New Home Sales
  120. Construction Spending decreased slightly in October
  121. ISM Manufacturing index increased to 59.3 in November
  122. Ten Years Gone: Remembering Tanta
  123. Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
  124. November 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 78 Institutions
  125. Schedule for Week of December 2, 2018
  126. Oil Rigs Increased

November 2018

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in October
  2. Q4 GDP Forecasts
  3. NAR 2019 Home Price Forecast Correction
  4. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower House Price Gains in October
  5. Chicago PMI Increased in November
  6. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October
  7. FOMC Minutes: "Further gradual increases"
  8. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 2.6% in October
  9. Personal Income increased 0.5% in October, Spending increased 0.6%
  10. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 234,000
  11. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income & Outlays, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
  12. Chemical Activity Barometer Declines in November
  13. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Grew Moderately in November"
  14. Fed Chair Powell: The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability
  15. A few Comments on October New Home Sales
  16. New Home Sales decrease to 544,000 Annual Rate in October
  17. Q3 GDP Unrevised at 3.5% Annual Rate
  18. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  19. Wednesday: New Home Sales, GDP, Fed Chair Powell, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
  20. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
  21. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  22. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October
  23. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in September
  24. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  25. Q4 GDP Forecasts; Mid-2s
  26. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  27. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues to Moderate"
  28. Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in October"
  29. Sunday Night Futures
  30. Climate Change Report
  31. Schedule for Week of November 25, 2018
  32. "Is a Recession Coming?"
  33. Oil Prices Down Year-over-year
  34. Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
  35. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 42 states in October
  36. Comments on October Existing Home Sales
  37. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.22 million in October
  38. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 224,000
  39. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
  40. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods
  41. Housing Inventory Tracking
  42. John Burns: Builder Confidence "Feels more like a 50 to me"
  43. Comments on October Housing Starts
  44. Housing Starts Increased to 1.228 Million Annual Rate in October
  45. Tuesday: Housing Starts
  46. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 8% YoY in October, Inventory up 21% YoY
  47. Sacramento Housing in October: Sales Down 4.8% YoY, Active Inventory up 21% YoY
  48. NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines in November
  49. Sunday Night Futures
  50. Existing Home Sales for October: Take the Over
  51. Schedule for Week of November 18, 2018
  52. Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales down 1% YoY, Active Inventory down 5% YoY
  53. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
  54. NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 17th Straight Quarter"
  55. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Edged Higher" in November
  56. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 6 states in October, Texas and Washington at New Series Lows
  57. Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in October
  58. Friday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
  59. California Existing Homes in October: Sales Down 7.9% YoY, Inventory Up 28%
  60. Earlier: NY Fed Mfg "Solid", Philly Fed Mfg "Slowed" in November
  61. Retail Sales increased 0.8% in October
  62. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 216,000
  63. Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys
  64. LA area Port Traffic in October; Record Imports
  65. Houston Real Estate in October: Sales Up 6% YoY, Inventory Up 7%
  66. AIA: "Architecture firm billings continue to slow, but remain positive in October"
  67. Key Measures Show Inflation Softened Slightly on YoY Basis in October
  68. BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in October, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  69. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  70. Wednesday: CPI
  71. Seasonal Retail Hiring
  72. Goldman: Unemployment rate down to 3% in early-to-mid 2020
  73. CoreLogic: "Mortgage Delinquency Rate the Lowest Level in More Than 12 Years"
  74. Small Business Optimism Index decreased in October
  75. Long Beach: "Port sees brisk holiday imports, slower exports"
  76. Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  77. Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic down 1.3%, Convention Attendance down 2.7% compared to same Period in 2017
  78. Sunday Night Futures
  79. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 18% Year-over-year in October
  80. Schedule for Week of November 11, 2018
  81. Oil Rigs Increased, Oil Prices Fall
  82. Q4 GDP Forecasts
  83. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
  84. Merrill on Trade and Tariffs
  85. Homebuilder D.R. Horton: Housing Market "Choppy", "momentum is slipping"
  86. AAR: October Rail Carloads Up 1.0% YoY, Intermodal Up 4.2% YoY
  87. FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
  88. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in October
  89. MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in Q3
  90. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 214,000
  91. Thursday: FOMC Announcement, Unemployment Claims
  92. CBO: Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2018
  93. First Look: 2019 Housing Forecasts
  94. Seattle Real Estate in October: Sales Down 18% YoY, Inventory up 102% YoY
  95. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  96. Offtopic: Don't Just Vote. Vote for Democrats
  97. "Builders shrink home sizes"
  98. CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.6% Year-over-year in September
  99. BLS: Job Openings decline to 7.0 Million in September
  100. Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales Down 8% YoY, Inventory up 52% YoY
  101. Tuesday: Job Openings, Corelogic House Prices
  102. "Mortgage Rates Higher Still, Despite Calmer Market"
  103. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
  104. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 60.3% in October
  105. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Inventory Falls to Pre-Recession Average
  106. Sunday Night Futures
  107. Goldman Sachs on Housing Slowdown
  108. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year
  109. Schedule for Week of November 4, 2018
  110. Q4 GDP Forecasts
  111. October Vehicles Sales: 17.5 Million SAAR
  112. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  113. Trade Deficit increased to $54.0 Billion in September
  114. Comments on October Employment Report
  115. October Employment Report: 250,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
  116. Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
  117. Goldman: October Payrolls Preview
  118. October Employment Preview
  119. Construction Spending increased slightly in September
  120. ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 57.7 in October
  121. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 214,000

October 2018

  1. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
  2. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate Unchanged in September
  3. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower House Price Gains in September
  4. Chicago PMI Decreased in October
  5. ADP: Private Employment increased 227,000 in October
  6. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  7. Wednesday: ADP Employment, Chicago PMI
  8. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August
  9. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 20% YoY in September, Inventory up 14% YoY
  10. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  11. HVS: Q3 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  12. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in August
  13. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership
  14. Year-over-year Change in Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
  15. Q3 2018 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  16. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Continues to Expand, but Pace Slows"
  17. Personal Income increased 0.2% in September, Spending increased 0.4%
  18. Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Dallas Fed Mfg
  19. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year
  20. Schedule for Week of October 28, 2018
  21. October 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 75 Institutions
  22. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in September
  23. Q3 GDP: Investment
  24. BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3
  25. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in September
  26. Brad Hunter on Homebuilding
  27. Chemical Activity Barometer "Begins to Cool" in October
  28. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded at a Slower Pace" in October
  29. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 0.5% in September
  30. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 215,000
  31. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, KC Fed Mfg Survey
  32. Housing and Recessions
  33. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "modest to moderate", Some Housing Weakness
  34. A few Comments on September New Home Sales
  35. AIA: "Architecture firm billings slow but remain positive in September"
  36. New Home Sales decrease sharply to 553,000 Annual Rate in September
  37. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in September
  38. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  39. Wednesday: New Home Sales, Beige Book
  40. "Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Despite Market Volatility"
  41. Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
  42. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded Moderately in October"
  43. California: "California Housing Market Experiencing Shift as Home Sales Continue Descent in September"
  44. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for 12th Consecutive Quarter
  45. Housing Inventory Tracking
  46. Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Moderation in Economic Growth in September"
  47. Sunday Night Futures
  48. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined Slightly Year-over-year
  49. Schedule for Week of October 21, 2018
  50. Oil Rigs Increase Slightly
  51. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  52. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 9 states in September, Six States at New Series Lows
  53. A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales
  54. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined to 5.15 million in September
  55. Merrill on House Prices
  56. Friday: Existing Home Sales
  57. Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales down 6% YoY, Active Inventory down 7.5% YoY
  58. Lawler: Deaths, Immigration, and “the Demographics”
  59. Look Ahead to Existing Home Sales for September
  60. Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Suggested "Steady" Growth in October
  61. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 210,000
  62. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  63. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
  64. FOMC Minutes: Further Gradual Increases "Would be appropriate"
  65. Comments on September Housing Starts
  66. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.201 Million Annual Rate in September
  67. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  68. Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes
  69. Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
  70. BLS: Job Openings "reached a series high of 7.1 million" in August
  71. NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 68 in October
  72. Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in September
  73. Tuesday: Industrial Production, Job Openings, Homebuilder Survey
  74. LA area Port Traffic in September
  75. House Prices and Inventory
  76. Retail Sales increased 0.1% in September
  77. Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey
  78. Sacramento Housing in September: Sales Down 15.5% YoY, Active Inventory up 23% YoY
  79. Schedule for Week of October 14, 2018
  80. Oil Rigs Increase Sharply
  81. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  82. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined Slightly Year-over-year
  83. Housing Inventory Tracking
  84. Port of Long Beach: Record Traffic for Fiscal Year
  85. House Prices to National Average Wage Index
  86. Key Measures Show Inflation Slowed on YoY Basis in September
  87. Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.8% in 2019, Contribution Base increased to $132,900
  88. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 214,000
  89. Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims and 2019 COLA
  90. "Inequality in and across Cities"
  91. Houston Real Estate in September: "Market Cools"
  92. Seattle Real Estate in September: Sales Down 29% YoY, Inventory up 78% YoY
  93. Investment and Recessions
  94. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  95. Mortgage Rates Hold Above 5%
  96. Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2018
  97. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in August, Lowest since Sept 2007
  98. Small Business Optimism Index decreased slightly in September
  99. Tuesday: Small Business Survey
  100. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
  101. Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales Down 16% YoY, Inventory up 33% YoY
  102. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for August
  103. Sunday Night Futures
  104. Catching Up: Construction Spending increased 0.1% in August
  105. Schedule for Week of October 7, 2018
  106. AAR: September Rail Carloads Up 2.6% YoY, Intermodal Up 6.2% YoY
  107. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  108. Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to decline in 2018
  109. Comments on September Employment Report
  110. Trade Deficit increased to $53.2 Billion in August
  111. September Employment Report: 134,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
  112. Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit and some Hiking Pictures
  113. Goldman: September Payrolls Preview
  114. September Employment Preview
  115. Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate increased Sharply in Q3 2018
  116. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 16.6%
  117. Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q3 to 4.8%
  118. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 207,000
  119. Thursday: CR Returns!
  120. Update: Predicting the Next Recession
  121. Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Index
  122. 2012: Calling the House Price Bottom
  123. Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
  124. 2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy

September 2018

  1. Monday: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
  2. Schedule for Week of September 30, 2018
  3. 2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear
  4. 2007: Tanta Changed the Blogging World
  5. Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
  6. From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd
  7. December 2006: Tanta joined CR!
  8. Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
  9. FOMC Statement, Projections, and Press Conference
  10. A few Comments on August New Home Sales
  11. New Home Sales increase to 629,000 Annual Rate in August
  12. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower House Price Gains in August
  13. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  14. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, New Home Sales
  15. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in August
  16. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  17. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
  18. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Was Robust in September"
  19. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.0% year-over-year in July
  20. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  21. Housing Inventory Tracking
  22. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in August
  23. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues amid Increased Uncertainty"
  24. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August"
  25. Sunday Night Futures
  26. FOMC Preview
  27. Schedule for Week of September 23, 2018
  28. Oil Rigs Decline Slightly
  29. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  30. Merrill: "Existing Home Sales have Peaked"
  31. BLS: Unemployment Rates in Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina and Washington at New Lows
  32. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q2
  33. Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Suggested Faster Growth in September
  34. CoreLogic: 2.2 million Homes still in negative equity at end of Q2 2018
  35. Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q2
  36. A Few Comments on August Existing Home Sales
  37. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Unchanged at 5.34 million in August
  38. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 201,000, Lowest Since 1969
  39. Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Flow of Funds
  40. Nine Years Ago: Fast or Sluggish Recovery?
  41. AIA: "August architecture firm billings rebound"
  42. Comments on August Housing Starts
  43. Housing Starts Increased to 1.282 Million Annual Rate in August
  44. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  45. Wednesday: Housing Starts
  46. Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales down 1% YoY, Active Inventory down 8% YoY
  47. "Inactive, Disconnected, and Ailing: A Portrait of Prime-Age Men Out of the Labor Force"
  48. NAHB: Builder Confidence at 67 in September
  49. California: "Housing market falters for fourth straight month", Inventory up 17.2% YoY
  50. Lawler: Spotlight Seattle: Inventory Shortage Abating Rapidly
  51. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
  52. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declines Year-over-year
  53. LA area Port Traffic in August
  54. Fom the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State"
  55. Sunday Night Futures
  56. Oil Rigs: "Treading water"
  57. Schedule for Week of September 16, 2018
  58. Lawler: Single Family Rental Market Share Shrunk Significantly in 2017
  59. Lawler: Household Estimates Conundrum Alive and Well
  60. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  61. Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in August
  62. Retail Sales increased 0.1% in August
  63. Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
  64. Housing Inventory Tracking
  65. Sacramento Housing in August: Sales Down 3.3% YoY, Active Inventory up 22% YoY
  66. Key Measures Show Inflation Decreased on YoY Basis in August
  67. Early Look at 2019 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
  68. BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in August, Core CPI increased 0.1%
  69. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 204,000, Lowest Since 1969
  70. Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
  71. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 11% YoY in August, Inventory up 5% YoY
  72. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "moderate", "Softer Home Sales"
  73. Houston Real Estate in August: YoY Sales Distorted by Hurricane Harvey
  74. "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2017"
  75. Regulatory Capture
  76. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey, Refi Lowest Since 2000
  77. Wednesday: PPI, Beige Book
  78. Hurricanes and Economic Data
  79. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Falters" in August
  80. BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" in July
  81. Small Business Optimism Index increased in August
  82. Tuesday: Job Openings
  83. Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic down 1.2%, Convention Attendance down 5.1% compared to same Period in 2017
  84. Hotels: Occupancy Rate On Pace for Record Year
  85. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for July
  86. Sunday Night Futures
  87. Oil Rigs: RIg counts move sideways, again
  88. Schedule for Week of September 9, 2018
  89. AAR: August Rail Carloads Up 3.8% YoY, Intermodal Up 5.1% YoY
  90. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  91. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  92. Comments on August Employment Report
  93. August Employment Report: 201,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate
  94. Friday: Employment Report
  95. Goldman: August Payrolls Preview
  96. August Employment Preview
  97. Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales Down 3% YoY, Inventory up 20% YoY
  98. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.5% in August
  99. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 203,000, Lowest Since 1969
  100. ADP: Private Employment increased 163,000 in August
  101. Thursday: ADP Employment, Weekly Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg Survey
  102. Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to decline in 2018
  103. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.7 million annual rate in August
  104. Trade Deficit increased to $50.1 Billion in July
  105. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
  106. Wednesday: Trade Deficit
  107. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Off from Record Highs
  108. Construction Spending increased 0.1% in July
  109. ISM Manufacturing index increased to 61.3 in August
  110. CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.2% Year-over-year in July
  111. Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
  112. Oil Rigs: Increase Slightly
  113. August 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 82 Institutions
  114. Schedule for Week of September 2, 2018

August 2018

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in July, Lowest since Oct 2007
  2. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  3. Labor Slack and the Participation Rate (Spreadsheet included)
  4. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Unchanged Year-over-Year
  5. Friday: Chicago PMI
  6. Year-over-year Change in Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
  7. Personal Income increased 0.3% in July, Spending increased 0.4%
  8. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 213,000
  9. Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays, Unemployment Claims
  10. Chemical Activity Barometer "Softens" in August
  11. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 0.7% in July
  12. Q2 GDP Revised up to 4.2% Annual Rate
  13. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  14. Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales
  15. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in July
  16. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower House Price Gains in July
  17. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  18. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
  19. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Strong Growth in August"
  20. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in June
  21. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
  22. Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Around 16.8 Million SAAR in August
  23. Housing Inventory Tracking
  24. Dallas Fed: "Robust Expansion in Texas Manufacturing Continues"
  25. Chicago Fed "Index points to a moderation in economic growth in July"
  26. Sunday Night Futures
  27. New Home Prices
  28. Schedule for Week of August 26, 2018
  29. Oil Rigs: "Horizontal oil rigs roll off modestly"
  30. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  31. Fed Chair Powell: "Risk management suggests looking beyond inflation for signs of excesses"
  32. 2018 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Agenda
  33. Friday: Fed Chair Powell Speech, Durable Goods
  34. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in July, Lowest Since March 2006
  35. A few Comments on July New Home Sales
  36. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded at a Slightly Slower Pace" in August
  37. New Home Sales decrease to 627,000 Annual Rate in July
  38. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 210,000
  39. Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
  40. AIA: "July architecture firm billings remain positive despite growth slowing"
  41. FOMC Minutes: "Trade disputes a potentially consequential downside risk", Yield Curve Discussion
  42. A Few Comments on July Existing Home Sales
  43. Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows upward adjustment of 43,000 jobs
  44. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decline in July
  45. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
  46. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, BLS Benchmark Revision
  47. Look Ahead to Existing Home Sales for July
  48. Duy: "Bostic Throws Down the Gauntlet"
  49. Demographics, Unemployment Rate and Inflation
  50. Mortgage Rates Continue in Narrow Range
  51. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year
  52. Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 7% YoY, Active Inventory down 8% YoY
  53. A few comments on the Labor Force Participation Rate
  54. Sunday Night Futures
  55. Lawler: A Few “Hot” Markets Home Inventories are Up Sharply
  56. Schedule for Week of August 19, 2018
  57. Oil Rigs: "A breather after last week's big gains"
  58. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
  59. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  60. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 11 states in July, Oregon at New Low
  61. Houston: Existing Home Sales up 9.1% YoY, Inventory down 3.5% YoY
  62. California: "Housing market retreats", Inventory up 11.9% YoY
  63. Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Growth in activity slowed" in August
  64. Comments on July Housing Starts
  65. MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in Q2
  66. Housing Starts at 1.168 Million Annual Rate in July
  67. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 212,000
  68. Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  69. LA area Port Traffic Mostly Unchanged YoY in July
  70. Earlier from the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity remained robust in New York State"
  71. NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 67 in August
  72. Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in July
  73. Retail Sales increased 0.5% in July
  74. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  75. Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence, NY Fed Mfg
  76. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 3 Percent YoY in July, Inventory up 2% YoY
  77. NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 16th Straight Quarter"
  78. Small Business Optimism Index increased in July
  79. Tuesday: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
  80. Long Beach Port Traffic "Dips" in July
  81. Goldman: "Price pressures seem to be everywhere except the inflation statistics"
  82. Housing Inventory Tracking
  83. Sunday Night Futures
  84. Summer Teen Employment
  85. Schedule for Week of August 12, 2018
  86. Q3 GDP Forecasts
  87. Sacramento Housing in July: Sales Down 2.2% YoY, Active Inventory up 20% YoY
  88. Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in July
  89. Early Look at 2019 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
  90. BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in July, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  91. Friday: CPI
  92. Merrill: The Return of the Political Business Cycle
  93. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year
  94. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 213,000
  95. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in July
  96. Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
  97. Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales Up 4% YoY, Inventory up Slightly YoY
  98. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  99. CBO: Monthly Budget Review for July 2018
  100. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 13% Year-over-year in July
  101. BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" in June
  102. CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.8% Year-over-year in June
  103. Tuesday: Job Openings
  104. Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to decline slightly in 2018
  105. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Fall from Record Highs, Up 20% Year-over-year
  106. AAR: July Rail Carloads Up 3.5% YoY, Intermodal Up 6.9% YoY
  107. Sunday Night Futures
  108. Employment: July Diffusion Indexes
  109. Schedule for Week of August 5, 2018
  110. Oil Rigs: Rig Count Declines
  111. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  112. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.7% in July
  113. Earlier: Trade Deficit increased to $46.3 Billion in June
  114. Comments on July Employment Report
  115. July Employment Report: 157,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate
  116. Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
  117. Goldman: July Payrolls Preview
  118. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year
  119. July Employment Preview
  120. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 218,000
  121. Mortgage Rates at 2 Month High
  122. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.7 million annual rate in July
  123. FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
  124. Construction Spending decreased 1.1% in June
  125. ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 58.1 in July, Concern about Tariffs
  126. ADP: Private Employment increased 219,000 in July
  127. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
  128. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement., ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

July 2018

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in June
  2. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May
  3. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  4. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.4% year-over-year in May
  5. Personal Income increased 0.4% in June, Spending increased 0.4%
  6. Tuesday: Personal Income and Outlays, Case-Shiller House Prices
  7. Q2 2018 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  8. Oil Rigs: " A local peak in rig counts"
  9. Dallas Fed: "Robust Expansion in Texas Manufacturing Continues; Uncertainty Picks Up"
  10. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 0.9% in June
  11. Sunday Night Futures
  12. July 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 89 Institutions
  13. Schedule for Week of July 29, 2018
  14. Housing comments from Soylent Green
  15. Top Twenty Five GDP Quarters since 2000
  16. Q2 GDP: Investment
  17. BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.1% Annualized Rate in Q2
  18. Friday: GDP
  19. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in June
  20. Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in July
  21. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Expand Solidly" in July
  22. HVS: Q2 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  23. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 217,000
  24. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership
  25. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for Eleventh Consecutive Quarter
  26. Technical Note: GDP Release and Revisions
  27. A few Comments on June New Home Sales
  28. New Home Sales decrease to 631,000 Annual Rate in June
  29. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
  30. Wednesday: New Home Sales
  31. Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2)
  32. Top Twenty GDP Quarters since 2000
  33. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Saw Slowing Growth in July"
  34. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in June
  35. Mortgage Rates at Top of Recent Range
  36. Housing Inventory Tracking
  37. California: "Home sales stumble", Inventory up 8.1% YoY
  38. A Few Comments on June Existing Home Sales
  39. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decline in June, Inventory UP Year-over-year
  40. Chicago Fed "Index points to a rebound in economic growth in June"
  41. Monday: Existing Home Sales
  42. Existing Home Sales: Take the Under for June
  43. Schedule for Week of July 22, 2018
  44. Oil Rigs: "A brutal week for rig counts"
  45. State Unemployment since 1976
  46. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 9 states in June, Oregon at New Low
  47. Has Housing Market Activity Peaked?
  48. Technical Note: Temporary Census Hiring and the Monthly Employment Report
  49. Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased Year-over-Year
  50. California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 13 Percent YoY in June
  51. Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Continued to expand" in July
  52. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 207,000
  53. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  54. Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales down 3%, Active Inventory down 10% YoY
  55. Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "moderate or modest", "concern about tariffs", "Shrinking Margins"
  56. Comments on June Housing Starts
  57. AIA: "June architecture firm billings stay positive"
  58. Housing Starts decreased to 1.173 Million Annual Rate in June
  59. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  60. Wednesday: Housing Starts, Fed Chair Powell, Beige Book
  61. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
  62. LA area Port Traffic Increases YoY in June
  63. Greenspan 13 Years Ago: "Froth in housing markets"
  64. NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged at 68 in July
  65. Industrial Production Increased 0.6% in June
  66. Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence
  67. Q2 GDP Forecasts Increased Following Retail Report
  68. Earlier from the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity continued to grow at a fairly brisk pace in New York State"
  69. Retail Sales increased 0.5% in June
  70. Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey
  71. The Longest Economic and Housing Expansions in U.S. History
  72. Schedule for Week of July 15, 2018
  73. "Port of Long Beach Sees Busiest Month Ever"
  74. Looking back 9 Years Ago: The Sluggish Recovery Began
  75. Q2 GDP Forecasts
  76. Housing Inventory Tracking
  77. Sacramento Housing in June: Sales Down 3.1% YoY, Active Inventory up 26% YoY
  78. Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased Year-over-Year
  79. First Look at 2019 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
  80. Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in June
  81. BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in June, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  82. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 214,000
  83. Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
  84. Investment and Recessions
  85. When are people with Foreclosures and Short Sales eligible to borrow again?
  86. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Refinance Activity Lowest since 2000
  87. House Prices to National Average Wage Index
  88. Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2018
  89. BLS: Job Openings Decreased in May
  90. Small Business Optimism Index decreased in June
  91. Tuesday: Job Openings
  92. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up Year-over-year in June
  93. Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to increase slightly in 2018
  94. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May
  95. Oil Rigs: "A rebound after last week's fall"
  96. Sunday Night Futures
  97. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  98. Schedule for Week of July 8, 2018
  99. Q2 GDP Forecasts
  100. AAR: Rail Carloads Up 2.0% YoY, Intermodal Up 6.3% YoY
  101. Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales Down 4% YoY, Inventory down 11%
  102. Trade Deficit decreased to $43.1 Billion in May
  103. Comments on June Employment Report
  104. June Employment Report: 213,000 Jobs Added, 4.0% Unemployment Rate
  105. Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
  106. Goldman: June Payrolls Preview
  107. FOMC Minutes: "Concern about the possible adverse effects of tariffs"
  108. June Employment Preview
  109. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 16.6%
  110. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.1% in June
  111. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 231,000
  112. ADP: Private Employment increased 177,000 in June
  113. Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg Survey, FOMC Minutes
  114. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  115. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.5 million annual rate in June
  116. Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 2018, "Worst quarter in nine years"
  117. CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.1% Year-over-year in May
  118. Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
  119. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year
  120. Construction Spending increased 0.4% in May
  121. ISM Manufacturing index increased to 60.2 in June, Concern about Tariffs
  122. Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
  123. June 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 92 Institutions, Q2 2018 Transition Matrix

June 2018

  1. Schedule for Week of July 1, 2018
  2. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in May
  3. Oil Rigs: "A lousy week for rigs"
  4. Earlier: Chicago PMI Increased in June
  5. Q2 GDP Forecasts
  6. Personal Income increased 0.4% in May, Spending increased 0.2%
  7. Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
  8. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower House Price Gains in May
  9. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Expand at a Rapid Pace" in June, Concern about Tariffs
  10. Q1 GDP Revised down to 2.0% Annual Rate
  11. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 227,000
  12. Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims
  13. Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in June
  14. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 states in May
  15. Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 4.8%
  16. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 0.5% in May
  17. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  18. Wednesday: Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, Q2 Apartment Vacancy Survey
  19. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May
  20. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
  21. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  22. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.4% year-over-year in April
  23. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  24. Oil Rigs: Total US oil rigs fell 1 to 862 last week
  25. Earlier from Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Continues to Expand, Outlook Improves"
  26. A few Comments on May New Home Sales
  27. New Home Sales increase to 689,000 Annual Rate in May
  28. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in May "
  29. Monday: New Home Sales
  30. Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  31. Schedule for Week of June 24, 2018
  32. Duy: "No, A Recession Is Not Likely In The Next Twelve Months"
  33. Q2 GDP Forecasts
  34. Merrill: "The cost of a trade war"
  35. Housing Inventory Tracking
  36. Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased Year-over-Year
  37. Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Suggest Continuing Growth" in June
  38. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 218,000
  39. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in May, Foreclosure Inventory Close to Pre-Recession Average
  40. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  41. AIA: "Architecture firm billings strengthen in May"
  42. A Few Comments on May Existing Home Sales
  43. NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Backpedal, Decrease 0.4 Percent in May"
  44. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  45. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
  46. Existing Home Inventory: Up 8.3% Year-over-year in California
  47. Existing Home Sales: Take the Under for May
  48. Comments on May Housing Starts
  49. Housing Starts increased to 1.350 Million Annual Rate in May
  50. Tuesday: Housing Starts
  51. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
  52. Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales up 3%, Active Inventory down 16% YoY
  53. NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreases to 68 in June
  54. Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased slightly Year-over-Year, On Record Annual Pace
  55. Sunday Night Futures
  56. Oil Rigs: "A quiet week for rigs counts"
  57. Schedule for Week of June 17, 2018
  58. Goldman: "Upside Risk to Home Prices"
  59. Q2 GDP Forecasts
  60. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 14 states in May
  61. Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in May
  62. NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State"
  63. Friday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey
  64. LA area Port Traffic Increases YoY in May
  65. Duy: FOMC Recap
  66. Retail Sales increased 0.8% in May
  67. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 218,000
  68. "Mortgage Rates Higher Following Fed Forecasts"
  69. FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link
  70. FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike
  71. Housing Inventory Tracking: The Bottom Turn
  72. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  73. Sacramento Housing in May: Sales Unchanged YoY, Active Inventory up 30% YoY
  74. Did the Rebound in Oil Prices Rescue the Houston Housing Market?
  75. Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in May
  76. BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in May, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  77. Small Business Optimism Index increased in May
  78. Tuesday: CPI
  79. Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
  80. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly negative in Q1
  81. FOMC Preview
  82. Sunday Night Futures
  83. Oil Rigs: "Now, back to the Permian Show"
  84. Schedule for Week of June 10, 2018
  85. Bernanke Video: "What you are getting is a stimulus at the very wrong moment"
  86. Q2 GDP Forecasts
  87. AAR: Rail Carloads Up 3.2% YoY, Intermodal Up 6.6% YoY
  88. Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-Year, On Record Annual Pace
  89. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in May
  90. Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q1
  91. Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales Down 10% YoY, Inventory down 12%
  92. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000
  93. "Mortgage Rates Up To 3-Week Highs"
  94. Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
  95. Trade Deficit decreased to $46.2 Billion in April
  96. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  97. Wednesday: Trade Deficit
  98. CoreLogic: Underwriting Loosening for Conventional Conforming Loans
  99. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.6% in May
  100. BLS: Job Openings Increased in April to New Series High
  101. CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in April
  102. Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM non-Mfg Survey
  103. Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to decline slightly in 2018
  104. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year, At Record Prices
  105. U.S. Births decreased in 2017
  106. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for April
  107. Sunday Night Futures
  108. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  109. Schedule for Week of June 3, 2018
  110. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.9 million annual rate in May
  111. Comments on May Employment Report
  112. Construction Spending increased 1.8% in April
  113. ISM Manufacturing index increased to 58.7 in May
  114. May Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs Added, 3.8% Unemployment Rate

May 2018

  1. Friday: Employment Report, Auto Sales, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
  2. Goldman: May Payrolls Preview
  3. May Employment Preview
  4. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 1.3% in April, Down 2.1% Year-over-year
  5. Personal Income increased 0.3% in April, Spending increased 0.6%
  6. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 221,000
  7. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home sales and more
  8. Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity expanded moderately", "concern about trade policy"
  9. Q1 GDP Revised down to 2.2% Annual Rate
  10. ADP: Private Employment increased 178,000 in May
  11. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Refi Index lowest since December 2000
  12. Wednesday: GDP, ADP Employment, Beige Book
  13. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
  14. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  15. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Accelerates Notably"
  16. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.5% year-over-year in March
  17. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Dallas Fed Mfg
  18. Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreases Year-over-Year, Close to Record Annual Pace
  19. May 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list; Which Bank is the "Mystery" Problem Bank?
  20. Schedule for Week of May 27, 2018
  21. Oil Rigs: "Big rig add reversing last week"
  22. Lawler: "US Deaths Jumped in 2017"
  23. Q2 GDP Forecasts
  24. Fed Chair Powell: "Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency"
  25. Friday: Durable Goods
  26. Housing Inventory Tracking
  27. A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales
  28. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Expand Rapidly" in May
  29. NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slide 2.5 Percent in April"
  30. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 234,000
  31. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales
  32. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 states in April
  33. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest since August 2006
  34. FOMC Minutes: "A temporary period of inflation modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with inflation objective"
  35. A few Comments on April New Home Sales
  36. AIA: "Architecture Firm Billings Strengthen in April"
  37. New Home Sales decrease to 662,000 Annual Rate in April
  38. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Refi Index lowest since December 2000
  39. Wednesday: New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
  40. FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q1
  41. Existing Home Sales: Take the Under for April
  42. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in May"
  43. The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
  44. "Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Begin Week", Near 7 Year High
  45. Ten Years Ago: Looking back at a Foreclosure
  46. Oil Prices Up almost 50% Year-over-year
  47. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in April"
  48. Sunday Night Futures
  49. "Do People Really Downsize?"
  50. Schedule for Week of May 20, 2018
  51. Oil Rigs: "A Surprising Pause in Rig Additions"
  52. Lawler on FHA: Volumes Down, New Book Risk Rises
  53. "CAR: California Existing Single-Family Home Inventory Shows First YOY Gain in a Long While"
  54. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
  55. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 4 states in April; California, Hawaii and Wisconsin at New Series Lows
  56. Hotels: Occupancy Rate increases Year-over-Year, On Pace for Record Year
  57. Update: Housing Inventory Tracking
  58. Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Suggest a pickup in growth" in May
  59. NY Fed Q1 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 15th Straight Quarter, Led by Mortgages, Student Loans"
  60. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 222,000, 4-week average lowest since 1969
  61. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report
  62. Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales down 9% or up 4%?
  63. MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in Q1
  64. Comments on April Housing Starts
  65. Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in April
  66. Housing Starts decreased to 1.287 Million Annual Rate in April
  67. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Refi Index lowest since August 2008
  68. Wednesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
  69. "Mortgage Rates Jump to 7-Year Highs"
  70. Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales down 9%, Inventory down 26% YoY
  71. Earlier from the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew strongly in New York State"
  72. NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases to 70 in May
  73. Retail Sales increased 0.3% in April
  74. Tuesday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
  75. LA area Port Traffic Increases YoY in April
  76. Payroll Employment and Seasonal Factors
  77. Employment: April Diffusion Indexes
  78. Sunday Night Futures
  79. Goldman: "Environment for investors is less pleasant than last year"
  80. Schedule for Week of May 13, 2018
  81. Oil Rigs: "Rig additions keep rolling along"
  82. The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy
  83. Early Q2 GDP Forecasts
  84. Merrill: "Retail spending stalls again"
  85. Sacramento Housing in April: Sales Increase 5% YoY, Active Inventory up 18% YoY
  86. Hotels: Occupancy Rate increases Year-over-Year, On Pace for Record Year
  87. Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in April
  88. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 211,000, 4-week average lowest since 1969
  89. BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in April, Core CPI increased 0.1%
  90. "Mortgage Rates Back at 4-Year Highs Ahead of Inflation Data"
  91. Las Vegas: Convention Attendance Sluggish in Q1 2018, Visitor Traffic off Slightly
  92. Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
  93. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey, Refi Index lowest since 2008
  94. Four Years Ago: Housing Doom and Gloom
  95. Update: Housing Inventory Tracking
  96. Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Up Slightly YoY, Inventory down 19%
  97. BLS: Job Openings Increased in March to New Series High
  98. Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in April, "Poor Sales" Near Record Low
  99. Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell Panel Discussion, Job Openings, Small Business Confidence
  100. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in April
  101. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year, At Record Prices
  102. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March
  103. Sunday Night Futures
  104. Hotels: Occupancy Rate "dips" Year-over-Year, On Pace for Record Year
  105. Schedule for Week of May 6, 2018
  106. Oil Rigs: "Another solid week for rig additions"
  107. AAR: Rail Carloads Up 3.3% YoY, Best April Ever for Intermodal
  108. Early Q2 GDP Forecasts
  109. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  110. Comments on April Employment Report
  111. April Employment Report: 164,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate
  112. Friday: Employment Report
  113. Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q1, Down 30% Year-over-year
  114. Goldman: April Payrolls Preview
  115. April Employment Preview
  116. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.8% in April
  117. Trade Deficit at $49.0 Billion in March
  118. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 211,000, 4-week average lowest since 1973
  119. Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg Survey
  120. The FOMC's Symmetric 2 Percent Inflation Objective
  121. FOMC Statement: No Change in Policy
  122. Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to be unchanged in 2018
  123. ADP: Private Employment increased 204,000 in April
  124. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  125. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment
  126. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 17.15 million annual rate in April
  127. Q1 2018 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  128. Construction Spending decreased 1.7% in March
  129. ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 57.3 in April
  130. CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.0% Year-over-year in March

April 2018

  1. Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
  2. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in March
  3. Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE
  4. Earlier: Chicago PMI Increased Slightly in April
  5. Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Rebounds Strongly"
  6. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 0.4% in March, Down 3.0% Year-over-year
  7. Personal Income increased 0.3% in March, Spending increased 0.4%
  8. Monday: Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
  9. April 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 94 Institutions
  10. Schedule for Week of Apr 29, 2018
  11. Oil Rigs: "Beginning of Shale's Super-Goldilocks Period?"
  12. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
  13. Q1 GDP: Investment
  14. BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q1
  15. Friday: Q1 GDP
  16. Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Around 17 Million SAAR in April
  17. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: More Solid House Price Gains in March
  18. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded More Rapidly" in April
  19. HVS: Q1 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  20. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 209,000
  21. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership
  22. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for Tenth Consecutive Quarter
  23. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  24. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 47 states in March
  25. Chemical Activity Barometer "Eases" in April
  26. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
  27. "Mortgage Rates Push Farther Into 4-Year Highs"
  28. U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2017
  29. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
  30. A few Comments on March New Home Sales
  31. New Home Sales increase to 694,000 Annual Rate in March
  32. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in February
  33. Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices
  34. Housing Inventory Tracking
  35. Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 13% YoY
  36. A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales
  37. NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Climb 1.1 Percent in March"
  38. Chicago Fed "Index points to a moderation in economic growth in March"
  39. Monday: Existing Home Sales
  40. Goldman: "Moving Beyond Full Employment"
  41. Schedule for Week of Apr 22, 2018
  42. Oil Rigs "Middling rig adds"
  43. Four Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
  44. Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
  45. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 4 states in March; Kentucky and Maine at New Series Lows
  46. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Year-over-Year, Record Q1
  47. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
  48. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
  49. Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Showed "Continued Growth" in April
  50. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 232,000
  51. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
  52. Fed's Beige Book: "Modest to moderate" expansion, "concern about tariffs"
  53. Housing Inventory Tracking
  54. AIA: "Architecture billings remain positive in March"
  55. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  56. Wednesday: Beige Book, Architecture Billings Index
  57. Comments on March Housing Starts
  58. Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in March
  59. Housing Starts increased to 1.319 Million Annual Rate in March
  60. Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
  61. Sacramento Housing in March: Sales Decrease Slightly YoY, Active Inventory up 19% YoY
  62. Earlier from the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew at a solid clip in New York State"
  63. NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines to 69 in April
  64. Retail Sales increased 0.6% in March
  65. Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Confidence
  66. Personal Saving Rate and Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
  67. Schedule for Week of Apr 15, 2018
  68. LA area Port Traffic Decreases YoY in March
  69. Oil Rigs "Horizontal oil rigs come in flat"
  70. Q1 GDP Forecasts
  71. The Longest Expansions in U.S. History
  72. BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" in February
  73. Mortgage Rates Steady at 4.5%
  74. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down Year-over-Year
  75. Update: Predicting the Next Recession
  76. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 233,000
  77. CoreLogic on New Tax Law: "No material house price effect so far"
  78. FOMC Minutes: "Monetary policy eventually would likely gradually move from an accommodative stance to being a neutral or restraining"
  79. Key Measures Show Inflation increased in March
  80. BLS: CPI decreased 0.1% in March, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  81. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index Down YoY
  82. Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Minutes
  83. Port of Long Beach: Record Port Traffic in Q1 2018
  84. Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2018
  85. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in February
  86. Small Business Optimism Index decreased in March, "Difficulty of finding qualified workers" is Top Problem
  87. Merle Hazard: "A trucking song for the information age"
  88. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down Year-over-Year
  89. Weather Adjusted Employment
  90. Goldman: Economic Environment "Becoming Less Pleasant"
  91. Sunday Night Futures
  92. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in March
  93. Schedule for Week of Apr 8, 2018
  94. AAR: Rail Carloads Up 3.6% YoY, Best March Ever for Intermodal
  95. Oil Rigs "Are the Permian's Go-Go Days Ending?"
  96. Fed Chair Powell: The Outlook for the U.S. Economy
  97. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  98. Comments on March Employment Report
  99. March Employment Report: 103,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
  100. Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales Down Slightly YoY, Inventory down 26%
  101. Friday: Employment Report, Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell
  102. Goldman: March Payrolls Preview
  103. March Employment Preview
  104. Trade Deficit at $57.6 Billion in February
  105. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 242,000
  106. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
  107. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up Year-over-year in March
  108. Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to be Unchanged in 2018
  109. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 58.8% in March
  110. ADP: Private Employment increased 241,000 in March
  111. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  112. Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Index
  113. Fed: Q4 2017 Household Debt Service Ratio Increasing from Very Low Level
  114. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.5 million annual rate in March
  115. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 47 states in January
  116. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year
  117. CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in February
  118. "Mortgage Rates Begin April Near 2-Month Lows"
  119. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for February
  120. Construction Spending increased 0.1% in February
  121. ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 59.3 in March
  122. Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construciton Spending
  123. March 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 98 Institutions, Q1 2018 Transition Matrix

March 2018

  1. Schedule for Week of Apr 1, 2018
  2. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased slightly in February
  3. Q1 GDP Forecasts
  4. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Year-over-Year
  5. Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate increased slightly in Q1 2018
  6. "Mortgage Rates Unchanged Despite Market Improvements"
  7. Merrill and Nomura Forecasts for March Employment Report
  8. Earlier: Chicago PMI Declines in March
  9. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate increased in Q1 to 16.5%
  10. Personal Income increased 0.4% in February, Spending increased 0.2%
  11. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 215,000
  12. Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays, Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI and More
  13. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: More Solid House Price Gains in February
  14. Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q1 to 4.7%
  15. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 3.1% in February, Down 4.1% Year-over-year
  16. Q4 GDP Revised up to 2.9% Annual Rate
  17. MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  18. Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales
  19. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in February
  20. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  21. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January
  22. Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Sluggish Growth in March"
  23. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in January
  24. Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
  25. Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Under 17 Million SAAR in March
  26. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in February
  27. Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but at a Slower Pace"
  28. Chicago Fed "Index points to a pickup in economic growth in February"
  29. Sunday Night Futures
  30. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Year-over-Year
  31. Schedule for Week of Mar 25, 2018
  32. Off-topic: "March, Vote, Change the World!"
  33. Oil Rigs "Signs of life in the minor plays"
  34. Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales up 8%, Inventory down 12% YoY
  35. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 7 states in February; California, Maine, Mississippi and Wisconsin at New Series Lows
  36. A few Comments on February New Home Sales
  37. New Home Sales at 618,000 Annual Rate in February
  38. Friday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods
  39. Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  40. Housing Inventory Tracking
  41. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued at a Solid Pace" in March
  42. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 229,000
  43. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  44. A Few Comments on February Existing Home Sales
  45. FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike
  46. AIA: "Architecture billings continue to hold positive in 2018"
  47. NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Rebound 3.0 Percent in February"
  48. MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  49. Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Existing Home Sales
  50. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q4
  51. Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in March
  52. Demographics: Renting vs. Owning
  53. "Mortgage Rates Maintain Flat Trajectory Ahead of Fed"
  54. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
  55. Q1 GDP Forecasts
  56. FOMC Preview
  57. Sunday Night Futures
  58. Goldman: FOMC Preview
  59. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Year-over-Year
  60. Schedule for Week of Mar 18, 2018
  61. Sacramento Housing in February: Sales up 10% YoY, Active Inventory up 17% YoY
  62. Comments on February Housing Starts
  63. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates"
  64. BLS: Job Openings Increased in January
  65. Industrial Production Increased 1.1% in February
  66. Housing Starts decreased to 1.236 Million Annual Rate in February
  67. Today on NPR Planet Money with Cardiff Garcia
  68. Lawler: "New Long-Term Population Projections Show Slower Growth than Previous Projections but Are Still Too High"
  69. CoreLogic: "2.5 million Homes still in negative equity" at end of Q4 2017
  70. Earlier: Philly and NY Fed Manufacturing Surveys Showed Solid Growth in March
  71. NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines to 70 in March
  72. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 226,000
  73. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, NY Fed Mfg, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Confidence
  74. "Mortgage Rates Match 2-Week Lows"
  75. Atlanta Fed: GDPNow declines to 1.9% for Q1
  76. Retail Sales decreased 0.1% in February
  77. MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications Increase, Refinance Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  78. Wednesday: Retail Sales, PPI
  79. LA area Port Traffic Increases YoY in February
  80. Larry Kudlow is usually wrong
  81. Key Measures Show Inflation About the Same Year-over-year in February as in January
  82. Small Business Optimism Index Increased in February, "Difficulty of finding qualified workers" is Top Problem
  83. BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in February, Core CPI increased 0.2%
  84. Tuesday: CPI, Small Business Confidence
  85. February Employment Report: Prime Participation and Diffusion Indexes
  86. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 6 states in January; Alabama, California, Maine and Mississippi at New Series Lows
  87. Oil Rigs "Big rig drop, another inflection point"
  88. Sunday Night Futures
  89. Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Year-over-Year
  90. Schedule for Week of Mar 11, 2018
  91. AAR: Rail Carloads Declined YoY, Best February Ever for Intermodal
  92. Lawler: February Decline in Average Hourly Earnings Growth No Surprise
  93. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  94. Comments on February Employment Report
  95. February Employment Report: 313,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
  96. Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and Wages
  97. Lawler: More on Deaths ... And Some Thoughts About Next Week’s Release of Census Long-Term Population Projections
  98. Goldman: February Payrolls Preview
  99. February Employment Preview
  100. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 231,000
  101. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  102. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases Slightly in February
  103. Fed's Beige Book: "Modest to moderate" expansion, "worker shortages across most sectors"
  104. Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales Down 4% YoY, Inventory down 31%
  105. Trade Deficit at $56.6 Billion in January
  106. ADP: Private Employment increased 235,000 in February
  107. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
  108. Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, Beige Book
  109. Lawler: Population Outlook: Uncertainty Not Just Related to Immigration Assumptions, But Also Death Rates
  110. Q1 GDP Forecasts
  111. CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.6% Year-over-year in January
  112. 30 Year Mortgage Rates at 4.5% to 4.625%
  113. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year, At Record Prices
  114. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 59.5% in February
  115. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Recent Increase in Rates Cuts Potential Refinance Population by 40%
  116. Sunday Night Futures
  117. Housing Industry Concerned about Tariffs
  118. Schedule for Week of Mar 4, 2018
  119. Oil Rigs "A Small Rise in Rig Counts"
  120. Merrill on Housing
  121. When the Story Changes, Be Alert
  122. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: More Solid House Price Gains in January
  123. Market Update
  124. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales mostly unchanged at 17.1 million annual rate in February
  125. Construction Spending mostly unchanged in January
  126. ISM Manufacturing index increased to 60.8 in February
  127. Personal Income increased 0.4% in January, Spending increased 0.2%
  128. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 210,000, 4-Week Average lowest since 1969
  129. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales, Fed Chair Powell

February 2018

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased slightly in January
  2. Earlier: Chicago PMI Declines in February, Still Solid
  3. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 4.7% in January, Down 3.8% Year-over-year
  4. Q4 GDP Revised down to 2.5% Annual Rate
  5. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  6. Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI
  7. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in January
  8. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  9. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December
  10. Richmond Fed: District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in February
  11. Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
  12. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in December
  13. Tuesday: Case-Shiller, Fed Chair Powell
  14. Housing Inventory Tracking
  15. A few Comments on January New Home Sales
  16. Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in December, Up 6.6% year-over-year
  17. New Home Sales decrease to 593,000 Annual Rate in January
  18. Chicago Fed "Index Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in January"
  19. Monday: New Home Sales
  20. February 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 101 Institutions
  21. Schedule for Week of Feb 25, 2018
  22. Oil Rigs "Oil rig counts take a breather"
  23. Lawler: "Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook"
  24. House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index
  25. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in January
  26. Duy's Fed Watch: "Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path"
  27. Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018
  28. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued Solid Growth" in February
  29. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000
  30. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  31. House Prices and Inventory
  32. FOMC Minutes: "Labor market continued to strengthen and that economic activity expanded at a solid rate"
  33. A Few Comments on January Existing Home Sales
  34. AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2018"
  35. NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 3.2 Percent in January"
  36. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  37. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
  38. Q1 GDP Forecasts
  39. Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  40. Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in February
  41. Ten Years Ago: Housing Starts were down Sharply as the Great Recession Started
  42. Las Vegas: Record Convention Attendance in 2017, Visitor Traffic off Slightly
  43. The Housing Bubble, Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP
  44. Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
  45. Goldman: "Federal fiscal policy is entering uncharted territory"
  46. Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 11% YoY
  47. Schedule for Week of Feb 18, 2018
  48. Oil Rigs "Continued gains in rig counts"
  49. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
  50. Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent, Q4 2017
  51. Comments on January Housing Starts
  52. Housing Starts increased to 1.326 Million Annual Rate in January
  53. Friday: Housing Starts
  54. Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 30% Year-over-year
  55. Earlier: Philly and NY Fed Manufacturing Surveys Showed Growth in February
  56. NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 72 in February
  57. Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
  58. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 230,000
  59. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, NY and Philly Fed Mfg, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence
  60. LA area Port Traffic Increases YoY in January
  61. Key Measures Show Inflation Increased in January
  62. Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in January
  63. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  64. Wednesday: CPI, Retail Sales
  65. NY Fed Q4 Report: "Household Debt Increased, Fifth Consecutive Year Of Positive Annual Growth"
  66. Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
  67. Goldman: "The 2018 Inflation Rebound"
  68. Small Business Optimism Index Increased in January, "Difficulty of finding qualified workers" is Top Problem
  69. "Mortgage Rates Steady at 4-Year Highs Despite Warning Shots"
  70. AIA Forecast: 4% increase in Nonresidential Construction in 2018
  71. Port of Long Beach: Record Port Traffic in January 2018
  72. Lawler: Will Average Hourly Earnings Growth Decelerate Over the Next Two Months?
  73. Sunday Night Futures
  74. Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018
  75. Schedule for Week of Feb 11, 2018
  76. Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics, Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders
  77. Oil Rigs "Rig Counts Soar as Oil Prices Collapse"
  78. Lawler on Prime Working Age Population
  79. Housing: Inventory is Key
  80. Merrill: "The $1 trillion dollar budget deficit"
  81. Another Government Shutdown?
  82. AAR: Rail Carloads Declined YoY, "Best January Ever" for Intermodal
  83. MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increases in Q4 mostly due to Hurricanes
  84. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 221,000
  85. Thursday: Unemployment Claims
  86. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Falls" in January
  87. Employment: January Diffusion Indexes
  88. Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Up 5% YoY, Inventory down 35%
  89. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
  90. "Mortgage Rates Head Back Toward Recent Highs"
  91. Prime Working-Age Population At New Peak, First Time Since 2007
  92. BLS: Job Openings "Little changed" in December
  93. CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.6% Year-over-year in December
  94. Trade Deficit at $53.1 Billion in December
  95. Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings
  96. Market Update
  97. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year, At Record Prices
  98. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.9% in January
  99. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: '“Hurricane Effect” Aside, Mortgage Performance Continued to Improve in 2017'
  100. U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Decline Slightly in 2017, Lowest since 2006
  101. Schedule for Week of Feb 4, 2018
  102. Oil Rigs "Some signs of life outside the Permian"
  103. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  104. Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
  105. Comments on January Employment Report
  106. January Employment Report: 200,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
  107. Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and Wages
  108. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 17.1 million annual rate in January
  109. Goldman: January Payrolls Preview
  110. January Employment Preview
  111. Construction Spending increased in December
  112. ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 59.1 in January
  113. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 230,000
  114. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

January 2018

  1. Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased in December due to Hurricanes
  2. FOMC Statement: No Change in Policy
  3. NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 0.5% in December, Up 0.5% Year-over-year
  4. ADP: Private Employment increased 234,000 in January
  5. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
  6. Wednesday: FOMC Annoucement, ADP Employment, Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI
  7. Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
  8. Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Sharply in December due to Hurricanes
  9. Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November
  10. HVS: Q4 2017 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
  11. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in November
  12. "Mortgage Rates Surge to Highest Levels in More Than 3 Years"
  13. Q4 2017 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
  14. NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for Ninth Consecutive Quarter
  15. Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in November, Up 6.4% year-over-year
  16. Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Expansion Solid in January
  17. Personal Income increased 0.4% in December, Spending increased 0.4%
  18. Sunday Night Futures
  19. Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR Again in January
  20. January 2018: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 101 Institutions
  21. Schedule for Week of Jan 28, 2018
  22. Oil Rigs "US oil rigs were up sharply"
  23. Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in December
  24. Q4 GDP: Investment
  25. BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4
  26. Friday: GDP, Durable Goods
  27. Q4 GDP Forecasts
  28. A few Comments on December New Home Sales
  29. Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Strengthened Further" in January
  30. New Home Sales decrease to 625,000 Annual Rate in December
  31. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 233,000
  32. Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
  33. LA area Port Traffic Increases in December
  34. A Few Comments on December Existing Home Sales
  35. NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Fade in December; 2017 Sales Up 1.1 Percent"
  36. AIA: "Architecture billings end year on positive note"
  37. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  38. Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
  39. Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in January
  40. Earlier: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Slowing Growth in January"
  41. BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 6 states in December; California, Hawaii and Mississippi at New Series Lows
  42. Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in December due to Hurricanes
  43. "Mortgage Rates Set Another 9-Month High"
  44. Bloomberg: "This Rare Bear Who Called the Crash Warns Housing Is Too Hot Again"
  45. Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up slightly, Inventory down 13% YoY
  46. Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in December"
  47. Sunday Night Futures
  48. Data and the #TrumpShutdown
  49. Schedule for Week of Jan 21, 2018
  50. Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
  51. Government Shutdown: Economic Data Likely to be Delayed
  52. Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
  53. Merrill: "Are the stars aligning for wage growth?"
  54. Mortgage Rates close to 4.25%, "highest in more than 9 months"
  55. Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Growth Continued" in January
  56. Comments on December Housing Starts
  57. Housing Starts decreased to 1.192 Million Annual Rate in December
  58. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 220,000
  59. Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
  60. Fed's Beige Book: "Modest to moderate"expansion, "on-going labor market tightness"
  61. NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 72 in January
  62. Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December
  63. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  64. Wednesday: Industrial Produciton, Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book
  65. Update: Predicting the Next Recession
  66. Q4 GDP Forecasts
  67. NY Fed: "Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip"
  68. Monday Night Futures
  69. Goldman: "Recession Risk is Low … For Now"
  70. Bank Failures by Year
  71. Schedule for Week of Jan 14, 2018
  72. Oil Rigs "Total US oil rigs were up 10 to 752 this week"
  73. Key Measures Show Inflation Increased in December
  74. Retail Sales increased 0.4% in December
  75. Friday: Retail Sales, CPI
  76. Oil Prices Higher, Up 19% Year-over-year
  77. Sacramento Housing in December: Sales down 8% YoY, Active Inventory up 8% YoY
  78. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 261,000
  79. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
  80. Kansas City Fed on Housing: "Pent-Up Demand and Continuing Price Increases"
  81. U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up Year-over-year in 2017
  82. Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
  83. MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
  84. Earlier: Small Business Optimism Index Declines in December
  85. Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Ends 2017 on High Note" in December
  86. Fed: Q3 2017 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low, Starting to Increase
  87. Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales Down YoY, Inventory down 36%
  88. BLS: Job Openings "Little changed" in November
  89. Tuesday: Job Openings
  90. Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: New Tax Law Could Impact Home Equity Borrowing
  91. Prime Working-Age Population nears 2007 Peak
  92. Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year
  93. Sunday Night Futures
  94. Oil Rigs "Total US oil rigs were down 5 to 742 this week"
  95. Schedule for Week of January 7, 2018
  96. Q4 GDP Forecasts
  97. AAR: Rail Carloads increased, "Best Year Ever" for Intermodal
  98. Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
  99. Earlier: Trade Deficit at $50.5 Billion in November
  100. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.9% in December
  101. Comments on December Employment Report
  102. December Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
  103. Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
  104. Final Update: 2018 Housing Forecasts
  105. Goldman: December Payrolls Preview
  106. December Employment Preview
  107. Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 2017
  108. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 250,000
  109. ADP: Private Employment increased 250,000 in December
  110. Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ADP Employment
  111. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.79 million annual rate in December
  112. FOMC Minutes: New Tax Law "would likely provide a modest boost to capital spending"
  113. Construction Spending increased in November
  114. ISM Manufacturing index increased to 59.7 in December
  115. Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 16.3%
  116. MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease over Previous Two Weeks
  117. Wednesday: ISM Mfg, Construciton Spending, Vehicle Sales, FOMC Minutes and More
  118. Update: Ten Economic Questions for 2018 #wdym
  119. Hotels: Strong Finish to 2017, Record Occupancy due to Hurricanes
  120. Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year, Looks like Record Prices in 2018
  121. CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.0% Year-over-year in November
  122. Monday Night Futures
  123. Question #1 for 2018: How much will the economy grow in 2018?
  124. Question #2 for 2018: Will job creation slow further in 2018?
  125. Question #3 for 2018: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2018?
  126. Question #4 for 2018: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2018? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2018?

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