2017
1,380 posts
2017 1,380
December 2017
- Question #5 for 2018: Will the Fed raise rates in 2018, and if so, by how much?
- Question #6 for 2018: How much will wages increase in 2018?
- Question #7 for 2018: How much will Residential Investment increase?
- December 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 103 Institutions, Q4 2017 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of December 31st
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased in November due to Hurricanes
- Question #8 for 2018: What will happen with house prices in 2018?
- Question #9 for 2018: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2018?
- Chicago PMI "Rises" in December "to Six-and-a-Half Year High"
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: More Solid House Price Gains in November
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate up sharply in November
- Question #10 for 2018: Will the New Tax Law impact Home Sales, Inventory, and Price Growth in Certain States?
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4 to 4.5%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchanged at 245,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Apartment Survey
- Ten Economic Questions for 2018
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 35 states in November
- Q4 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2017
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased Slightly in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year
- Wednesday: Pending Home Sales
- Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October
- Richmond and Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Expansion Solid in December
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in October
- Monday Night Futures
- Happy Holidays!
- Oil Rigs "A modest gain in horizontal oil rigs"
- Hotel Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year, 2017 will be Record Occupancy Year
- Schedule for Week of December 24th
- Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR Again in December
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 8 states in November; Alabama, California, Hawaii, Mississippi and Texas at New Series Lows
- A few Comments on November New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Continued at a Solid Pace" in December
- New Home Sales increase to 733,000 Annual Rate in November
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in November, Spending increased 0.6%
- Friday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods and More
- Goldman on "Fiscal Boost"
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in November due to Hurricanes
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Solid Growth" in December
- Q3 GDP Revised down to 3.2% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 245,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 11% YoY
- A Few Comments on November Existing Home Sales
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index Increases in November
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Soar 5.6 Percent in November"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- Sacramento Housing in November: Sales down 3% YoY, Active Inventory up 8% YoY
- Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in December
- Comments on November Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 1.297 Million Annual Rate in November
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Update from Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
- A few comments: Housing and Policy
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 74 in December
- Sunday Night Futures
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Schedule for Week of December 17th
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
- Oil Rigs "The Calm before the Storm"
- Q4 GDP Forecasts
- Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November
- NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity grew at a "solid clip" in December
- Friday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- It Never Rains in California
- Hotel Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year, 2017 will be Record Occupancy Year
- Retail Sales increased 0.8% in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 225,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link
- FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike
- Key Measures Show Inflation Mostly Below Fed's Target
- BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in November, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, CPI
- LA area Port Traffic Surges in November
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q3
- Goldman expects "Tax Reform" to be Enacted in the "Next Two Weeks"
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "Near All-Time High" in November
- Tuesday: Small Business Index, PPI
- Prime Working-Age Population nears 2007 Peak
- Duy: "Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook"
- FOMC Preview
- BLS: Job Openings "Little changed" in October
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotel Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year, On Pace for Record Year
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of Dec 10, 2017
- AAR: Rail Carloads decreased, Intermodal Solid in November
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Solid Seasonal Retail Hiring in November
- Comment on Employment Report: Some Additional Hurricane Bounce Back
- November Employment Report: 228,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Remains Strong" in November
- Goldman: November Payrolls Preview
- November Employment Preview
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q3
- CoreLogic: "2.5 million Homes still in negative equity" at end of Q3 2017
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 236,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 Flow of Funds
- 2018 Housing Forecasts
- Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up Slightly YoY, Inventory down 33%
- ADP: Private Employment increased 190,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- November Employment Revisions
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 57.4% in November
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.0% Year-over-year in October
- Trade Deficit at $48.7 Billion in October
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg Index
- Q4 GDP Forecasts
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Tax Changes may Reduce Supply of Homes for Sale
- Sunday Night Futures
- Year-to-Date Performance: Employment, Vehicle Sales, New Home Sales
- Schedule for Week of Dec 3, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Rigs continue to move ahead"
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.35 million annual rate in November
- Construction Spending increased in October
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 58.2 in November
- Friday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
November 2017
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in October
- Earlier: Chicago PMI "Softens" in November
- Hotel Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year, On Pace for Record Year
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in October, Spending increased 0.3%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 238,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- Policy Mistakes
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in October
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increase in October, Down 0.6% Year-over-year
- Q3 GDP Revised up to 3.3% Annual Rate
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales, Fed Chair Yellen
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: More Solid House Price Gains in October
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
- Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Saw Robust Growth in November"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in September
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg, Jerome Powell Fed Nomination Hearing
- Dallas Fed: "Manufacturing Expansion Slows but Remains Solid" in November
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.2% in September, Up 6.4% year-over-year
- A few Comments on October New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increase to 685,000 Annual Rate in October
- Monday: New Home Sales
- Q4 GDP Forecasts
- Schedule for Week of Nov 26, 2017
- November 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 108 Institutions
- Las Vegas: On Pace for Record Convention Attendance in 2017
- Hotel Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year, On Pace for Record Year
- Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
- FOMC Minutes: Several Participants Worried about "A sharp reversal in asset Prices"
- Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR Again in November
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 239,000
- Wednesday: Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Minutes
- Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in November
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q3
- A Few Comments on October Existing Home Sales
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Grow 2.0 Percent in October"
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in October"
- Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in October due to Hurricanes
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Fed Chair Yellen
- Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Will Mr. Trump have a negative impact on the economy?
- Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics, Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders
- Comments on October Housing Starts
- Sunday Night Futures
- Sacramento Housing in October: Sales down 5% YoY, Active Inventory up 2% YoY
- Schedule for Week of Nov 19, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Rigs counts took a breather this week"
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
- Lawler: Has US Household Growth Slowed, and If So, Why?
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increases in Q3 mostly due to Hurricanes
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 12 states in October; Alabama, Hawaii and Texas at New Series Lows
- Housing Starts increased to 1.290 Million Annual Rate in October
- Friday: Housing Starts
- Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 10% YoY
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Activity Continues to Expand" in November
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 70 in November
- Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 249,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- Can investors use macro analysis?
- Seasonal Retail Hiring
- Key Measures Show Inflation picks up in October
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index "Bounce Back" in October
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Increases, Delinquency Rates of Several Debt Types Continue Rising"
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, CPI, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports increased YoY, Exports decreased YoY in October
- A few random thoughts on Taxes
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "inches up" in October
- "Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher"
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up Year-over-year in October
- Sunday Night Futures
- Port of Long Beach: Another Record Month in October
- Schedule for Week of Nov 12, 2017
- Oil Rigs "A Sharp Rebound in the Rig Count"
- Employment: October Diffusion Indexes
- Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment declines to 97.8
- Prime Working-Age Population nears 2007 Peak
- Hotel Occupancy Rate decreases YoY
- Is the stock market a bubble?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 239,000
- The Future is still Bright!
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Recovers" in October
- Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 13% YoY, Inventory down 32%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications "Flat" in Latest Weekly Survey
- First Look: 2018 Housing Forecasts
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.0% Year-over-year in September
- BLS: Job Openings Unchanged in September
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: 2017 Hurricane Impact on Mortgage Performance Worse than Katrina
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreases for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increases YoY, On Pace for Record Year
- Sunday Night Futures
- AAR: Rail Carloads decreased Slightly, Intermodal at Record Levels, in October
- Schedule for Week of Nov 5, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Rigs counts were off this week"
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Earlier: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 60.1% in October
- Trade Deficit at $43.5 Billion in September
- Comment on Employment Report: Hurricane Bounce Back, Record Job Streak Still Alive!
- October Employment Report: 261,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg
- Is a Recession Imminent?
- Goldman: October Payrolls Preview
- October Employment Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 229,000
- Bloomberg: Jerome Powell to be named Next Fed Chair
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 18.0 million annual rate in October
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased in September
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Construction Spending increased in September
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 58.7 in October
- ADP: Private Employment increased 235,000 in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Annoucement, ADP Employment, Vehicle Sales, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
October 2017
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: More Solid House Price Gains in September
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August
- HVS: Q3 2017 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.1% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Are house prices a new bubble?
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.2% in August, Up 6.2% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Gains Momentum" in October
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in September, Spending increased 1.0%
- Sunday Night Futures
- October 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 111 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Oct 29, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Rig counts rebounded modestly this week"
- Five Economic Questions I'm Frequently Asked
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increases YoY
- Q3 GDP: Investment
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.0% Annualized Rate in Q3
- Friday: GDP
- Goldman: "On Course for a December Hike"
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Posts Strong Growth" in October
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index unchanged in September, Down 3.5% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 233,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 38 states in September
- A few Comments on September New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increase to 667,000 Annual Rate in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased in September
- Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR in October
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Bounces Back" in October
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Remained Positive in October"
- "Mortgage Rates Holding Recent Highs to Begin Week"
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for Eighth Consecutive Quarter
- Duy's FedWatch: In Defense of the conventional Wisdom
- Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in September"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increases YoY, Just behind Record Year
- Schedule for Week of Oct 22, 2017
- Yellen: "A Challenging Decade and a Question for the Future"
- Oil Rigs "The US oil rig count was crushed this week"
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 11 states in September; Tennessee and Idaho at New Series Lows
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Inch 0.7 Percent Higher in September"
- Friday: Existing Home Sales, Yellen Speech
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Continued Growth" in October
- Black Knight: "Hurricanes Irma and Harvey Drive Surge in Past-Due Mortgages"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Fed's Beige Book: "Modest to moderate"expansion, Labor markets "Tight"
- Comments on September Housing Starts
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index "Backslides Slightly" in September
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.127 Million Annual Rate in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 68 in October
- Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in September
- Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence
- Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate
- Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up slightly, Inventory down 10% YoY
- NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "grew at a robust pace" in October
- Sunday Night Futures
- Fed Chair Janet Yellen "The Economy and Monetary Policy"
- Schedule for Week of Oct 15, 2017
- Oil Rigs "The US oil rig count eased back again"
- Sacramento Housing in September: Sales down 5% YoY, Active Inventory down 5% YoY
- Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in September
- Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.0% in 2018, Contribution Base increased to $128,700
- Retail Sales increased 1.6% in September
- Friday: Retail Sales, CPI and 2018 COLA
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports increased, Exports decreased in September
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increases YoY, Just behind Record Year
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 243,000
- Port of Long Beach: Record Month, "Looks like retailers are optimistic about the holiday season"
- FOMC Minutes: "Many participants thought" December Rate Hike "likely to be warranted"
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased Slightly in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Job Openings, FOMC Minutes
- Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2017
- Off-topic: The Art of Negotiation
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in August
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in September
- Duy: "On Track For a December Rate Hike"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 20% Year-over-year
- Oil Rigs "Steady as she goes"
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in September
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Record Job Streak: A couple of Comments
- Schedule for Week of Oct 8, 2017
- AAR: Rail Carloads decreased, Intermodal Increased, in September
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales up Slightly YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- Comment: A Hurricane Impacted Employment Report
- September Employment Report: 33,000 Jobs Lost, 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Hotel Occupancy Rate just Behind Record Year
- Goldman: September Payrolls Preview
- Trade Deficit at $42.4 Billion in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 260,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- September Employment Preview
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.8% in September
- ADP: Private Employment increased 135,000 in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg Index
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 18.4 million annual rate in September
- Merrill: "The hurricanes and housing"
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 27 states in August
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate increased in Q3 2017
- Construction Spending increased in August
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 60.8 in September
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "350,000 in Hurricane Irma Disaster Areas Have Negative or Limited Equity"
- Monday: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
- September 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 119 Institutions, Q3 2017 Transition Matrix
September 2017
- Schedule for Week of Oct 1, 2017
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in August, Lowest since December 2007
- Oil Rigs "Signs of life in the rig count"
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Close to 2%
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate "flat" in Q3 at 16.1%
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in August, Spending increased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI and More
- New Home Prices
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Expand Solidly" in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 272,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Zillow Forecast: "August Case-Shiller Forecast: Annual Home-Price Gains Aiming Higher"
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in August, Lowest since April 2008
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.6% in August, down 2.6% year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
- Yellen: "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy"
- A few Comments on August New Home Sales
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q3 to 4.5%
- New Home Sales decrease to 560,000 Annual Rate in August
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.9% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Yellen Speech and More
- Duy: "Has The Fed Abandoned Its Reaction Function?"
- Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Holds Steady" in September
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.5% in July, Up 6.2% year-over-year
- Chicago Fed "Index points to slower economic growth in August"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotel Occupancy Rate just Behind Record Year
- Schedule for Week of Sept 24, 2017
- Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR in September
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly positive in Q2
- Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Showed Improvement" in September
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q2
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increase in Hurricane Affected Areas
- CoreLogic: "2.8 million Homes still in negative equity" at end of Q2 2017
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 259,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link
- FOMC Statement: "In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program"
- A Few Comments on August Existing Home Sales
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Subside 1.7 Percent in August "
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index "growth streak" continues in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Existing Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Holds Steady" in September
- Comments on August Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.180 Million Annual Rate in August
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increases following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
- NAHB: Builder Confidence idecreased to 64 in September
- Black Knight: Preliminary Assessment Shows Over 3.1 Million Mortgaged Properties in Hurricane Irma Disaster Areas
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of Sept 17, 2017
- Lawler: ACS-Based Household Growth Slowed Last Year: Homeownership Rate Estimate Up, But Barely
- Q3 GDP Forecasts: Moving Down
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Unchanged in 41 states in August, Tennessee at New Series Low
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.9% in August
- Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in August
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up slightly, Inventory down 7% YoY
- Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in August
- Early Look at 2018 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 284,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports increased, Exports decreased in August
- Lawler: CPS-Based Household Growth Slowed Significantly in 2017, though Not as Much as Raw Numbers Suggest
- Merrill: The Impact of Harvey on August Retail Sales
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: PPI
- House Prices to Median Household Income
- BLS: Job Openings Increased Slightly in July
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in August
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Slips" in August
- Las Vegas: On Pace for Record Convention Attendance in 2017
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Purchase Lending Hits Highest Level Since 2007"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman: Hurricane and Economic Data
- Schedule for Week of Sept 10, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Rig counts continue to ease back"
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Hotel Occupancy and Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
- Black Knight: Hurricane Harvey Could Result in 300,000 New Mortgage Delinquencies
- Mortgage Rates at 2017 Lows
- AAR: Rail Traffic decreased slightly in August
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Goldman: Demographics and Inflation
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 298,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Fed's Beige Book: "Modest to moderate"expansion, Labor markets "Tight"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales up 6% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows upward adjustment of 95,000 jobs
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.3% in August
- Trade Deficit at $43.7 Billion in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg Index, Employment Preliminary Benchmark Revision
- Prime Working-Age Population near 2007 Peak
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: CoreLogic House Price Index
- August Employment Revisions
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotel Occupancy and Hurricane Harvey
- Schedule for Week of Sept 3, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Horizontal rig counts continue to fall"
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16 million annual rate in August
- Comment: A Disappointing Employment Report
- Construction Spending decreased in July
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 58.8 in August
- August Employment Report: 156,000 Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
August 2017
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in July, Lowest since December 2007
- Goldman: August Payrolls Preview
- August Employment Preview
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.8% in July, down 1.3% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 0.3%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 236,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Zillow Forecast: "July Case-Shiller Forecast: Slowdown Coming in Home Prices"
- Q2 GDP Revised up to 3.0% Annual Rate
- ADP: Private Employment increased 237,000 in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: GDP, ADP Employment
- The Impact of Harvey on Unemployment Claims
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate up Year-over-Year
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again" in August
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.9% in June, Up 6.2% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- August 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 123 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Aug 27, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Rig counts rolling off"
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sixth consecutive month below 17 million SAAR
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in July
- Yellen: "Financial Stability a Decade after the Onset of the Crisis"
- Friday: Durable Goods, Jackson Hole Symposium, Yellen Speech
- Black Knight: Foreclosure inventory below 400,000 for the first time since February 2007
- A Few Comments on July Existing Home Sales
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate in Q2 at Lowest Level Since 2000
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Moderately" in August
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slide 1.3 Percent in July"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 234,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 33 states in July
- A few Comments on July New Home Sales
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index "growth moderates" in July
- New Home Sales decrease to 571,000 Annual Rate in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer Shows Modest Slowing in August
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity in August Remained Little Changed from July"
- "Mortgage Rates Steady at 2017 Lows"
- Existing Home Sales: Take the Under on Thursday
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to Growth near Historical Trend in July"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Schedule for Week of Aug 20, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Rigs counts are now off the peak"
- Sacramento Housing in July: Sales up Slightly YoY, Active Inventory down 18% YoY
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Unchanged in 46 states in July, Two States at New Series Lows
- Mortgage Rates Fall below 4%, Lowest since November 2016
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate up Year-over-Year
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "region continued to advance" in August
- Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 232,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Mfg
- NY Fed: "Household Borrowing Grows Modestly; Credit Card Delinquencies Rise"
- FOMC Minutes: Balance Sheet Normalization "Relatively soon"
- Comments on July Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.155 Million Annual Rate in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes
- Earlier for the NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "grew strongly" in August
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 68 in August
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in July
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- LA area Port Traffic increased in July
- Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 9% YoY
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Housing Bottom and Comparing Housing Recoveries
- Schedule for Week of Aug 13, 2017
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in July
- Early Look at 2018 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in July, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- Friday: CPI
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down Year-over-Year
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q2, Down 30% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Goldman on the "Debt Limit"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Stumbles" in July
- Corelogic: "May 2017 Delinquency Rate Lowest in Nearly a Decade"
- BLS: Job Openings Increased in June
- Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales up 10% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in July
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey
- Prime Working-Age Population near 2007 Peak
- Q2 2017 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Low-Down-Payment Purchase Lending at Seven-Year High"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up Slightly Year-over-Year
- Schedule for Week of Aug 6, 2017
- AAR: Rail Traffic decreased slightly in July
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Trade Deficit at $43.6 Billion in June
- Comment: A Solid Employment Report
- July Employment Report: 209,000 Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Goldman: July Payrolls Preview
- July Employment Preview
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 53.9% in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 240,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics, Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- ADP: Private Employment increased 178,000 in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.76 million annual rate in July
- Construction Spending decreased in June
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 56.3 in July
- Personal Income decreased slightly in June, Spending increased less than 0.1%
- Tuesday: Personal Income, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
July 2017
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since December 2007
- Earlier: Chicago PMI decreased in July
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Strengthens" in July
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.5% in June, up 0.5% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- July 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 134 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of July 30, 2017
- Oil Rigs "Back in action"
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since April 2008
- Q2 GDP: Investment
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q2
- Friday: GDP
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Fifth consecutive month below 17 million SAAR
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Moderately" in July
- HVS: Q2 2017 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Q2 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership
- Zillow Forecast: "June Case-Shiller Forecast: Rare Monthly Declines Expected"
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Balance Sheet Change Coming "Relatively Soon"
- A few Comments on June New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increase to 610,000 Annual Rate in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, New Home Sales
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May
- Chemical Activity Barometer increased slightly in July
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.6% year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Funny Real Estate Quote from 10 Years Ago
- A Few Comments on June Existing Home Sales
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Retreat 1.8 Percent in June"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down Slightly Year-over-Year
- Schedule for Week of July 23, 2017
- Oil Rigs decline slightly
- Q2 GDP Forecasts
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 10 states in June, Two States at New Series Lows
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in July Survey
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies mostly unchanged in June
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Region continues to grow but at a slower pace" in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 233,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Comments on June Housing Starts
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in June
- Housing Starts increased to 1.215 Million Annual Rate in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
- Housing and Policy
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 64 in July
- Tuesday: Homebuilder Survey
- LA area Port Traffic increased in June
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales increased following Oil Price Related Slump
- NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "grew modestly" in July
- Sunday Night Futures
- Sacramento Housing in June: Sales up Slightly, Active Inventory down 18% YoY
- Schedule for Week of July 16, 2017
- Oil Rigs: "Winter is coming"
- First Look at 2018 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Q2 GDP Forecasts: Moving on Down
- Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in June
- Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in June
- Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in June
- Friday: Retail Sales, CPI, Industrial Production
- Hotels: Occupancy, RevPAR down Year-over-Year
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 247,000
- "Mortgage Rates at 2-Week Lows"
- Fed's Beige Book: "Slight to Moderate "expansion, Labor markets "Tightened Further"
- Yellen: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Yellen Testimony, Beige Book
- Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 6%, Inventory down 10% YoY
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declined in June
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased in May
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- House Prices to National Average Wage Index
- Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2017
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Underwater Borrower Population Below Two Million for First Time Since 2006"
- Sunday Night Futures
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in June
- Schedule for Week of July 9, 2017
- Oil Rigs: "The party's not over yet"
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Comment: A Solid Employment Report
- June Employment Report: 222,000 Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Goldman Employment Preview
- June Employment Preview
- Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales up 10% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.4% in June
- Trade Deficit at $46.5 Billion in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 248,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 158,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg Survey
- FOMC Minutes: Inflation Discussions
- Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy down Year-over-Year
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.4 million annual rate in June
- Construction Spending unchanged in May
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 57.8 in June
- Monday: Auto Sales, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- June 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 137 Institutions, Q2 2017 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of July 2, 2017
June 2017
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sixth Consecutive Decline in June"
- U.S. Births decreased in 2016, Women 30-34 Now have Highest Birth Rate
- Chicago PMI Increases in June, Highest in Three Years
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in May, Spending increased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since December 2007
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate "flat" in Q2 at 16.0%
- Q1 GDP Revised up to 1.4% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP
- Zillow Forecast: "May Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect the Cooldown to Continue"
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 2017
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.8% in May, down 1.7% year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Pending Home Sales
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturers in the Fifth District Improved in June"
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 4.4%
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in April
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy down slightly Year-over-Year
- For Fun: Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since May 2008
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Continues to Expand but at a Slower Pace" in June
- Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in May"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman on the Next Recession
- Schedule for Week of June 25, 2017
- Oil Rigs: "Not dead yet!"
- A few Comments on May New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increase to 610,000 Annual Rate in May
- Friday: New Home Sales
- U.S. Demographics: The Millennials Take Over
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Further" in June
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased in May, Foreclosures at 10-Year Lows
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 241,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 36 states in May
- A Few Comments on May Existing Home Sales
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Rise 1.1 Percent in May"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 9% YoY
- Chemical Activity Barometer "flat" in June
- Oil Prices Lower, Down Year-over-year
- Lawler: Single-Family Housing Production ‘Shortfall” All In Modestly Sized, Modestly Price Segment
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy down Year-over-Year
- Q2 GDP Forecasts being Revised Down
- Sunday Night Futures
- Schedule for Week of June 18, 2017
- Oil Rigs: "Smallest four week add since last year"
- Lawler: Reasonable Population Projections Are Important!
- Comments on May Housing Starts
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 9 states in May, Four States at New Series Lows
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.092 Million Annual Rate in May
- Friday: Housing Starts
- Sacramento Housing in May: Sales up 7%, Active Inventory down 14% YoY
- Earlier: NY and Philly Manufacturing Surveys Suggest Solid Growth in June
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 67 in June
- Industrial Production Unchanged in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 237,000
- Mortgage "Rates Drop to 8-Month Lows"
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link
- FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike
- Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in May
- Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC, Retail Sales, CPI
- LA area Port Traffic increased in May
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index unchanged in May
- Tuesday: Small Business Survey, PPI
- Q2 GDP Forecasts
- Oil: "Smallest number of horizontal oil rigs added since January"
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of June 11, 2017
- Merrill FOMC Preview
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly negative in Q1
- Goldman: "Prices and Risks in Commercial Real Estate"
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in May
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in May
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q1
- CoreLogic: "3.1 million Homes were still in negative equity" at end of Q1 2017
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 245,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q1 Flow of Funds Report
- Prime Working-Age Population near 2007 Peak
- Zillow Forecast: "Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast expects growth of 5.6 percent in the national index"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Fall Below 4%
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- BLS: Job Openings "increased to a series high" in April
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in April
- Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales up 28% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy up Year-over-Year
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Q1 2017 Originations Fall 34 Percent, Led By 45 Percent Drop in Refinance Lending"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.9% in May
- Sunday Night Futures
- Schedule for Week of June 4, 2017
- Oil: "A middling week for rig additions"
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Trade Deficit at $47.6 Billion in April
- Comment: A Disappointing Employment Report
- May Employment Report: 138,000 Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Goldman: May Payrolls Preview
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.6 million annual rate in May
- May Employment Preview
- Construction Spending decreased in April
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 54.9 in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 248,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 253,000 in May
May 2017
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ADP Employment, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in April, Lowest since January 2008
- Fed's Beige Book: Modest to Moderate expansion, Labor markets "Tighten"
- Updated: Chicago PMI Increases in May
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.3% in April, down 3.3% year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Beige Book
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Picks Up Pace" in May
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in March
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in April, Spending increased 0.4%
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.3% in March, Up 5.8% year-over-year
- Tuesday: Personal Income and Outlays, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Rate Flat Year-over-Year
- May 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 140 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of May 28, 2017
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales below 17 Million SAAR in May
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in April
- Q2 GDP Forecasts
- Q1 GDP Revised up to 1.2% Annual Rate
- Friday: GDP
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in April
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Modestly" in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 234,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in April
- FOMC Minutes: More details on Balance Sheet Reduction
- A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in April
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 2.3 Percent in April"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes and More
- Chemical Activity Barometer increases in May
- Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Mostly Unchanged in May
- A few Comments on April New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decrease to 569,000 Annual Rate in April
- Tuesday: New Home Sales
- Merrill: "Revising down our inflation forecasts"
- Chicago Fed "Increased Economic Growth in April"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Existing Home Sales: Take the Under
- Schedule for Week of May 21, 2017
- Oil: "Another Surge" in Rig Count
- Merrill: "Will it be a summer break for the Fed?"
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 10 states in April, Three States at New Series Lows
- Sacramento Housing in April: Sales down 3%, Active Inventory down 16% YoY
- Philly Fed: "Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand" in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 232,000
- Mortgage Rates Decline to 4%
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
- NY Fed: "Household Debt Surpasses its Peak Reached During the Recession in 2008"
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Q1 2017 Household Debt and Credit Report
- Comments on April Housing Starts
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased in Q1, Foreclosures Decreased
- Industrial Production increased 1.0% in April
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.172 Million Annual Rate in April
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
- Early Q2 GDP Forecasts
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 70 in May
- NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "leveled off" in May
- Monday: NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- Schedule for Week of May 14, 2017
- Oil: "Price weakness failed to dent enthusiasm for rig additions this week"
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in April
- Retail Sales increased 0.4% in April
- Friday: Retail Sales, CPI
- LA area Port Traffic increased in April
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increases Year-over-Year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 236,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- Three Years Ago: Housing Doom and Gloom
- MBA: Mortgage "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics, Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in March
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in April
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreases in April
- Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales up 5%, Inventory down 11% YoY
- Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales up slightly YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Rate Increases Year-over-Year
- Schedule for Week of May 7, 2017
- Oil: Slower Growth for Rig Count
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in April
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Comment: A Solid Employment Report
- April Employment Report: 211,000 Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages
- Goldman: April Payrolls Preview
- April Employment Preview
- Trade Deficit declines slightly to $43.7 Billion in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 238,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Q1 Weakness "likely to be transitory"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.5% in April
- ADP: Private Employment increased 177,000 in April
- MBA: Mortgage "Purchase Apps Up, Refis Down in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment, ISM non-mfg Survey
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.8 million annual rate in April
- Q1 2017 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.1% Year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: Auto Sales
- Black Knight on Mortgages "19 Percent of Active HELOCs Are Scheduled to Reset in 2017"
- Construction Spending decreased in March
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 54.8 in April
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in March, Spending increased less than 0.1%
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending
April 2017
- April 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 151 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Apr 30, 2017
- Goldman: U.S. Economy "now at full employment"
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March, Lowest since Feb 2008
- Oil: "Yet another strong week" for Rig Count
- Chicago PMI increases in April
- Q1 GDP: Investment
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 0.7% Annualized Rate in Q1
- Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI
- HVS: Q1 2017 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded at Slow Pace" in April
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.8% in March, up 0.8% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 257,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March, Lowest since May 2008
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 states in March
- New Home Prices
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Zillow Forecast: "The national Case-Shiller index is projected to climb 5.9 percent year-over-year in March"
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
- Chemical Activity Barometer increases in April
- A few Comments on March New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increase to 621,000 Annual Rate in March
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
- U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2016
- Merrill: "Fed to take a breather"
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues" in April
- Chicago Fed "Slower Economic Growth in March"
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.8% in February, Up 5.7% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales close to 17 Million SAAR in April
- Schedule for Week of Apr 23, 2017
- OIl: Decent increase for Oil Rig Count
- BLS: March Unemployment Rates in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine and Oregon at New Series Lows
- A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Jumped 4.4% in March"
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in March to 11 Year Low
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Rate Decreases Year-over-Year
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in April Survey
- Philly Fed: Manufacturing "Continued to expand, but at a slower pace" in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Fed's Beige Book: Modest to Moderate expansion, Tight labor markets
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Beige Book
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in February
- Comments on March Housing Starts
- Industrial Production increased 0.5% in March
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.215 Million Annual Rate in March
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
- Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 10% YoY
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 68 in April
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in April
- Sunday Night Futures
- Schedule for Week of Apr 16, 2017
- Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded Again
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in March
- Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in March
- Friday: Retail Sales, CPI
- OIl: Solid increase for Oil Rig Count
- LA area Port Traffic increased in March
- Sacramento Housing in March: Sales down 2%, Active Inventory down 23% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 234,000
- Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims, Consumer Sentiment
- Mortgage Rates below 4% Again?
- Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2017
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- "Mortgage Rates Hit New 2017 Lows"
- Update: Predicting the Next Recession
- EIA: Expect Record U.S. Oil Production in 2018, Exceeding 1970 Peak
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in February
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in March
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in March
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 38 states in January
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Rate increase Year-over-Year
- Schedule for Week of Apr 9, 2017
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in March
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Comment: A Mostly Solid Employment Report
- March Employment Report: 98,000 Jobs, 4.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages
- Goldman: March Payrolls Preview
- March Employment Preview: Mixed Signals
- Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales up 11.9% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 234,000
- FOMC Minutes: "A change to the Committee's reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year"
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate "steady" in Q1 at 15.8%
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.2% in March
- ADP: Private Employment increased 263,000 in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Survey, FOMC Minutes
- Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace for First Decline Since 2009
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate mostly unchanged in Q1 2017
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.0% Year-over-year in February
- Trade Deficit declines to $43.6 Billion in February
- Lawler: Updated Population Projections = Slower Growth, Less Robust Housing Recovery
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.5 million annual rate in March
- Construction Spending increased in February
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 57.2 in March
- Black Knight on Mortgages "44 Percent of Q4 Refis Were Cash-Outs, Most Equity Drawn in Eight Years"
- Sunday Night Futures
- March 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 151 Institutions, Q1 2017 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of Apr 2, 2017
March 2017
- Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since March 2008
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q1 to 4.3%
- Chicago PMI increases in March
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in February, Spending increased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- Census: "One-third of the adult population in the United States has a bachelor’s degree or higher"
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Rate Solid in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 258,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims
- Zillow Forecast: "Case-Shiller national index is forecast to grow 6 percent year-over-year" in February
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 5.5% in February, up 2.6% year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January
- Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Expanded in March
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.9% year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declines in February, Lowest since June 2008
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Strengthens" in March
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in January, Up 5.4% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Fed: Q4 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low
- Schedule for Week of Mar 26, 2017
- Oil: "Incredible strength in rig additions"
- CoreLogic: "Between 2007–2016, Nearly 7.8 Million Homes Lost to Foreclosure"
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Over 17 Million SAAR in March
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales increasing following Oil Price Related Slump
- BLS: Unemployment Rates "significantly lower in February in 10 states", Arkansas and Oregon at New Lows
- A few Comments on February New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Strengthened Further" in March
- New Home Sales increase to 592,000 Annual Rate in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 258,000
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in February
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- A Few Comments on February Existing Home Sales
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in February
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Stumble in February"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer increases in March
- "Mortgage Rates at 2 Week Lows"
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Solid in early March
- Housing: Upside and Downside Risks
- Chicago Fed "Economic Growth Increased in February"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Existing Home Sales: Take the Under
- Goldman on Fed Balance Sheet Runoff
- Schedule for Week of Mar 19, 2017
- Oil: "Another Big Rig Add"
- Q1 GDP Forecasts
- Industrial Production unchanged in February
- LA area Port Traffic declined in February
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
- Comments on February Housing Starts
- Philly Fed: Manufacturing "Expansion Continues" in March
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in January
- Housing Starts increased to 1.288 Million Annual Rate in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 241,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Job Openings
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link
- FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in February
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 71 in March, Highest in 12 Years
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Meeting, Retail Sales, CPI, Homebuilder Survey and More
- Duy on FOMC Meeting: Shifting Dots
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q4
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased slightly in February
- "Mortgage Rates Approach 3-Year Highs Ahead of Fed"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Long Beach: Port Traffic down in February due to Chinese New Year
- February Retail Sales and Tax Refunds
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Stable in 45 states in January, Arkansas and Oregon at New Lows
- Sunday Night Futures
- Review of FOMC Projections
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of Mar 12, 2017
- Merrill on the March FOMC Meeting
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
- Comment: Another Solid Employment Report
- February Employment Report: 235,000 Jobs, 4.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages
- Goldman: February Employment Preview
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q4
- CoreLogic: "1 million borrowers moved out of negative equity during 2016"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 243,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q4 Flow of Funds
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in February
- February Employment Preview
- ADP: Private Employment increased 298,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales up 13%, Inventory down 11% YoY
- Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales up 5.2% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in January
- Trade Deficit at $48.5 Billion in January
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit
- February NFP Forecasts
- Update: It Does Rain in California!
- Black Knight: Mortgage "Origination volumes in 2016 highest level seen in nine years"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Oil: "Another big week for horizontal rigs"
- Schedule for Week of Mar 5, 2017
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in February
- Yellen: "a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate" at March Meeting
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.6% in February
- Friday: Yellen, ISM Non-Mfg Index
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in January
- Demographics: Renting vs. Owning
- Merrill on Possible March Fed Hike
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 223,000
- Duy: On the Fed, Possible March Rate Hike, and Dudley
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.5 million annual rate in February
- Fed's Beige Book: Modest to Moderate expansion, Tight labor markets
- Construction Spending decreased in January
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 57.7 in February
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in January, Spending increased 0.2%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Personal Income and Outlays, Auto Sales, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending, Beige Book
February 2017
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate falls below 1.0% in January, Lowest since June 2008
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q4
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December
- Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Expanded in February
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in December
- Q4 GDP Unrevised at 1.9% Annual Rate
- Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI
- Merrill: "The undocumented economy"
- Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Continues" in February
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.8% in January, up 0.4% year-over-year
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in December, Up 5.7% year-over-year
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Over 17 Million SAAR in February
- Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Softens in February
- Schedule for Week of Feb 26, 2017
- February 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 155 Institutions
- A few Comments on January New Home Sales
- Earlier: February Consumer Sentiment at 96.3
- New Home Sales increase to 555,000 Annual Rate in January
- Friday: New Home Sales
- Update on lack of Chinese Residential Real Estate Buyers
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Further" in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000, 4-Week Average Lowest Since 1973
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in January
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- A Few Comments on January Existing Home Sales
- FOMC Minutes: "Might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index decreased in January
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Jump in January"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
- Chemical Activity Barometer increases in February
- Peak Renter
- Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP
- Monday Night Futures
- Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery"
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 33% Year-over-year
- Don't like the data? Change it!
- Demographics and GDP
- Schedule for Week of Feb 19, 2017
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in January
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 16%, Inventory down 8%
- Comments on January Housing Starts
- NY Fed: Household Debt Increases Substantially, Approaching Previous Peak
- Philly Fed: Manufacturing Conditions Continued to Improve in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 239,000
- Housing Starts at 1.246 Million Annual Rate in January
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Philly Fed Mfg, Q4 Household Debt and Credit
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4, Foreclosures Decreased
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in January
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 65 in February
- Industrial Production decreased 0.3% in January
- Retail Sales increased 0.4% in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Yellen, Retail Sales, CPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence, Empire State Mfg
- LA area Port Traffic "Surges" in January
- Yellen: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in January
- Tuesday: Yellen, PPI
- Lawler: Some Data on Institutional Holdings of Single-Family Properties
- Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics, Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders
- Gary Cohn and the Participation Rate
- Hotels: Solid Start to 2017
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- Schedule for Week of Feb 12, 2017
- Sacramento Housing in January: Sales up 14%, Active Inventory down 20% YoY
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- Preliminary February Consumer Sentiment declines to 95.7
- Merrill Lynch: Market Participants "underestimating the risk of an uncertainty shock to the economy"
- Prime Working-Age Population near 2007 Peak
- EIA: "U.S. energy trade with Mexico: U.S. export value more than twice import value in 2016"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 234,000
- Mortgage rates decline for the third straight day
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Lawler on Household Projections
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales up 13.9% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in December
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.2% Year-over-year in December
- Trade Deficit at $44.3 Billion in December
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings
- U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Drop 6 Percent in 2016, Lowest since 2006
- More Rain in California!
- Black Knight: "7.4 million homes lost to foreclosure sale since 2007"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman on the Trump Agenda
- Oil: "Another huge week" for total US oil rigs, Pressure on OPEC deal
- Schedule for Week of Feb 5, 2017
- Earlier: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 56.5% in January
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: Another Solid Employment Report
- January Employment Report: 227,000 Jobs, 4.8% Unemployment Rate (Graphs included)
- January Employment Report: 227,000 Jobs, 4.8% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages
- Some Random Concerns and Observations ...
- Goldman: January Employment Preview
- January Employment Preview
- Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part II: The American Community Survey (ACS) Data
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 246,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 17.5 million annual rate in January
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Construction Spending decreased in December
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 56.0 in January
- ADP: Private Employment increased 246,000 in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC, Auto Sales, ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Construction Spending
January 2017
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in December
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November
- HVS: Q4 2016 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.6% year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in December, Lowest since March 2008
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continues to Expand" in January
- Duy: FOMC Preview
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.6% in December, up 0.3% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in December, Spending increased 0.5%
- Sunday Night Futures
- January 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 163 Institutions
- These are Not Normal Times
- Schedule for Week of Jan 29, 2017
- Oil: "Another huge week for total US oil rigs"
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate falls to 1.0% in December, Lowest since June 2008
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in December
- Q4 GDP: Investment
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.9% Annualized Rate in Q4
- Friday: GDP
- A few Comments on December New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Expand Moderately" in January
- New Home Sales decrease to 536,000 Annual Rate in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 259,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Around 17 Million SAAR in January
- Goldman Sachs FOMC Preview
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Starts New Year with Strong Gain"
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 10 states, Stable in 39 states in December
- A Few Comments on December Existing Home Sales
- NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slide in December; 2016 Sales Best Since 2006"
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
- Trump Economic Goals for Jobs and GDP
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in January Survey
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in December
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Concerns about Fewer Foreign Visitors in 2017
- Schedule for Week of Jan 22nd
- Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part I Continued: The CPS/ASEC Data for 18-29 Year Olds
- Then and Now
- Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part I: The CPS/ASEC Data
- Yellen: The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy
- Comments on December Housing Starts
- Philly Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continued to Improve in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 234,000
- Housing Starts increased to 1.226 Million Annual Rate in December
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Dr. Yellen
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
- Fed's Beige Book: Modest expansion, Tight labor markets
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in December
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in December
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 67 in January
- Industrial Production increased 0.8% in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book, Yellen Speech
- LA area Port Traffic increases Year-over-year in December
- NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continues to Expand in New York Region
- Monday Night Futures
- Bank Failures by Year
- Krugman: "Infrastructure Delusions"
- Schedule for Week of Jan 15th
- Sacramento Housing in December: Sales down 2%, Active Inventory down 17% YoY
- Question #1 for 2017: What about fiscal and regulatory policy in 2017?
- Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment at 98.1
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in December
- Friday: Retail Sales, PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Question #2 for 2017: How much will the economy grow in 2017?
- Lawler: New “Household” Numbers, Same Old Conundrum
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 247,000
- CNBC's Liesman: Trump's colossal error on jobs during his press conference
- Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up 6%, Inventory down 3%
- Question #3 for 2017: Will job creation slow further in 2017?
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Thoma: "Here's what really caused the housing crisis"
- Question #4 for 2017: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2017?
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in December
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in November
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey
- It DOES Rains in California!
- Question #5 for 2017: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2017? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2017?
- Black Knight November Mortgage Monitor
- Sunday Night Futures
- Question #6 for 2017: Will the Fed raise rates in 2017, and if so, by how much?
- Schedule for Week of Jan 8th
- Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales up 3.4% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate decreased in Q3 2016, Strip Mall Vacancy Rate increased
- Trade Deficit at $45.2 Billion in November
- Comments: Solid December Employment Report, Pickup in Wage Growth
- December Employment Report: 156,000 Jobs, 4.7% Unemployment Rate
- Goldman's December NFP Preview
- December Employment Preview
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 4.1%
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 57.2% in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 235,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 153,000 in December
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Mfg, Apartment Survey
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 18.3 million annual rate in December, Record Year
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 15.7%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period
- Wednesday: Auto Sales, Office Vacancy Survey, FOMC Minutes
- Construction Spending increased in November
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.1% Year-over-year in November
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 54.7 in December
- Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Question #7 for 2017: How much will wages increase in 2017?
- December 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 169 Institutions, Q4 2016 Transition Matrix