2016
1,387 posts
2016 1,387
December 2016
- Schedule for Week of Jan 1, 2017
- "Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to End 2016"
- A few Graphs for 2016
- Chicago PMI decreases in December
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased in November
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 265,000
- Duy: Is The Fed About To Experience A Repeat of 2016?
- Question #8 for 2017: How much will Residential Investment increase?
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.5% in November, down 0.4% year-over-year
- Zillow Forecast on Case-Shiller Index: "Expect a (Very) Modest Slowdown" in November
- Question #9 for 2017: What will happen with house prices in 2017?
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.6% year-over-year in October
- Question #10 for 2017: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2017?
- Ten Economic Questions for 2017
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Over 17 Million SAAR Again in December, On Track for Record Year in 2016
- Happy Holidays!
- Schedule for Week of Dec 25, 2016
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in November
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2016
- A few Comments on November New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increase to 592,000 Annual Rate in November
- Friday: New Home Sales
- Black Knight: Annual improvement in mortgage delinquency rates is beginning to slow as market "normalizes"
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Improved Considerably" in December
- Personal Income increased slightly in November, Spending increased 0.2%
- Q3 GDP Revised Up to 3.5% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 275,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Outlays and More
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 43 states in November
- A Few Comments on November Existing Home Sales
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates "small gain" in November
- Existing Home Sales increased in November to 5.61 million SAAR
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- CoreLogic: "Mortgage loans originated in Q3 continued to exhibit low credit risk"
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Ends Year on Strong Note"
- Hamilton on the Fed: "Back to normal?"
- "Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement"
- Yellen: "Strongest job market in nearly a decade"
- LA area Port Traffic increases Year-over-year in November
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Strong Finish to 2016, Could be Best Year Ever
- Schedule for Week of Dec 18, 2016
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in November
- Comments on November Housing Starts
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 18 states, Stable in 32 states in November
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.090 Million Annual Rate in November
- Friday: Housing Starts
- Larry Kudlow is usually wrong
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in November
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 70 in December
- NY and Philly Fed Manufacturing Expand in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 254,000
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, NY and Philly Mfg Surveys
- Quick FOMC Analysis
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link
- FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike
- Sacramento Housing in November: Sales up 19%, Active Inventory down 4.8% YoY
- Industrial Production declined 0.4% in November
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement Retail Sales, PPI, Industrial Production
- Las Vegas: On Pace for Record Visitor Traffic and Convention Attendance in 2016
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q3
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in November
- Duy: December FOMC Preview
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again, Near Previous Peak
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Hotels: Close to Record Year for Occupancy
- Sunday Night Futures: Oil Prices up Sharply
- Review of FOMC Projections
- Schedule for Week of Dec 11, 2016
- Merrill: FOMC Preview
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Nomura: FOMC Preview
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q3
- Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment increases to 98.0
- Friday: Flow of Funds
- Goldman: Fiscal Boost: Mainly a 2018 Story
- Animal Spirits and Business Confidence
- CoreLogic: 384,000 borrowers moved out of negative equity in Q3
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 258,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Annual Employment Gains some early thoughts on 2017
- Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 30% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Job Openings
- Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 30%, Inventory down 2%
- EIA: "Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.30/gal in 2017"
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in October
- Trade Deficit at $42.6 Billion in October
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- 2017 Housing Forecasts
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.2% in November
- Black Knight October Mortgage Monitor
- Sunday Night Futures
- Poor Gretchen on Fannie and Freddie
- Schedule for Week of Dec 4, 2016
- Brad Hunter: The 2017 Housing Market Forecast
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller Index to "continue to accelerate" in October
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: Solid November Employment Report, Sharp Drop in Unemployment Rate
- November Employment Report: 178,000 Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate
- November Employment Preview
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 17.75 million annual rate in November
- Goldman's November NFP Preview
- Construction Spending increased in October
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 53.2 in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 268,000
- Thursday: ISM Mfg, Auto sales, Unemployment claims, Construction Spending
November 2016
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October
- Fed's Beige Book: Modest to moderate expansion, Tightening labor market
- NY Fed: Household Debt Increased Slightly in Q3 2016, Mortgage Delinquency Rates Declined
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.1% in October, up 1.8% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.6% in October, Spending increased 0.3%
- ADP: Private Employment increased 216,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Activity Declines 16 Percent in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales, Beige Book, and More
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased slightly in October
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q3
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in September
- Q3 GDP Revised Up to 3.2% Annual Rate
- Black Knight: Mortgage "Foreclosure Starts Hit Lowest Level Since January 2005" in October
- Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Possible Policy Impacts on Housing
- Hotels: Finishing Year Strong, Could be Best Year on Record
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continues to Expand" in November
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in September, Up 5.4% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- November NFP Forecasts
- November 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 173 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Nov 27, 2016
- FHFA increases Conforming Loan Limits
- First Look: 2017 Housing Forecasts
- Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in October
- FOMC Minutes: "Appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon"
- A few Comments on October New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 563,000 Annual Rate in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 251,000
- MBA: Mortgage "Purchase Applications Drive Increase in Latest Weekly Survey "
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Minutes, and More
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Continues Strong Performance" in November
- A Few Comments on October Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales increased in October to 5.60 million SAAR
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales Over 17 Million SAAR Again in November, Possible Record Year in 2016
- Chicago Fed "Economic Growth Increased Slightly in October"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Some early Thoughts on the Impact of the Trump Economic Policies
- Goldman: "2017 Outlook: Under New Management"
- Schedule for Week of Nov 20, 2016
- Mortgage "Rates Rip to Highest Levels Since July 2015"
- Sacramento Housing in October: Sales up 4%, Active Inventory down 7.6% YoY
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Slightly" in November
- BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 7 states, Stable in 41 states in October
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
- Goldman: "Market expectations of quick fiscal expansion may be running ahead of political and legislative realities"
- Comments on October Housing Starts
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in October
- Yellen: Rate Hike "appropriate relatively soon"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 235,000, Lowest since 1973
- Housing Starts increased to 1.323 Million Annual Rate in October
- Thursday: Housing Starts, CPI, Yellen, Unemployment Claims
- Earlier: Industrial Production unchanged in October
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in October
- NAHB: Builder Confidence at 63 in November
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Today is Tanta's Birthday! Wednesday: PPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.0% year-over-year in September
- The Cupboard is Full
- NY Fed: November "General business conditions index climbed eight points to 1.5"
- Retail Sales increased 0.8% in October
- Tuesday: Retail Sales
- Update: U.S. Heavy Truck Sales Slump Over?
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield, Expect 4% Mortgage Rates
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman: "Economic Implications of the Trump Agenda"
- Schedule for Week of Nov 13, 2016
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year
- Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment increases to 91.6
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Off-topic: Acceptance and Response
- Merrill on October Retail Sales
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures Decrease in Q3
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 254,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- The Future is still Bright!
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "moves higher" in October
- Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 13%, Inventory up 1% YoY
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics from Large Publicly Traded Home Builders
- Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 5.5% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
- BLS: Job Openings increased slightly in September
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in October
- Tuesday: Election Day, Job Openings
- Fed Letter: "Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?"
- Fed Survey: "Banks reported stronger demand for most categories of RRE home-purchase loans"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Black Knight September Mortgage Monitor
- Sunday Night Futures
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3
- Schedule for Week of Nov 6, 2016
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Trade Deficit at $36.4 Billion in September
- Comments: Solid October Employment Report, Pickup in Wage Growth
- October Employment Report: 161,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- October Employment Preview
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q3, Down 31% Year-over-year
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declined to 54.8% in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 265,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg Index
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Update: The Endless Parade of Recession Calls
- ADP: Private Employment increased 147,000 in October
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.9 million annual rate in October
- Construction Spending declined in September
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 51.9 in October
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in September
October 2016
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- Q3 2016 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Increases in October
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in August, Up 5.3% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.5%
- Sunday Night Futures: Gasoline Prices up Slightly Year-over-year
- "How do I protect myself if Trump is elected?"
- October 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 173 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Oct 30, 2016
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in September
- Q3 GDP: Investment
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- October Consumer Sentiment declines to 87.2
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.9% Annualized Rate in Q3
- Friday: GDP
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in September, Lowest since July 2008
- HVS: Q3 2016 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Moderately" in October
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.5% in September, up 2.4% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 258,000
- Thursday: Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and More
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 36 states in September
- Zillow Forecast: Expect "Modest Acceleration" in YoY Growth in September for the Case-Shiller Indexes
- A few Comments on September New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 593,000 Annual Rate in September
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer indicated Solid Growth in October
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.3% year-over-year in August
- Black Knight: Mortgage "Foreclosure Rate Falls to Nine-Year Low" in September
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in September
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 3.4% year-over-year in August
- WSJ: "Retailers Rushed to Hire for Holidays"
- Chicago Fed "Economic Growth Picked Up in September"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales Over 17 Million SAAR Again in October
- Schedule for Week of Oct 23, 2016
- "The Structural Factors Behind the Steady Fall in Labor Force Participation Rates of Prime Age Workers"
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- BLS: Unemployment Rates stable in 42 states in September
- "Labor force participation: what has happened since the peak?"
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in October Survey
- A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales increased in September to 5.47 million SAAR
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 260,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Fed's Beige Book: "Most Districts indicated a modest or moderate pace of expansion"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index declines in September
- Comments on September Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.047 Million Annual Rate in September
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Slightly Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book, 3rd Presidential Debate
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in August
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in September
- NAHB: Builder Confidence at 63 in October
- Cost of Living Adjustment increases 0.3% in 2017, Contribution Base increased to $127,200
- CPI increased 0.3% in September
- Tuesday: CPI, Homebuilder Confidence
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.1% in September
- NY Fed: October "General business conditions index slipped five points to -6.8"
- Sunday Night Futures
- LA area Port Traffic: Exports up Year-over-year in September
- Schedule for Week of Oct 16, 2016
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Sacramento Housing in September: Sales up 3%, Active Inventory down 3.5% YoY
- Preliminary October Consumer Sentiment declines to 87.9
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in September
- Friday: Retail Sales, PPI, Yellen
- Merrill on September CPI
- A Recession in the Next Four Years?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 246,000, 4-Week Average Lowest Since 1973
- Mortgage Rates at 4-Month Highs
- FOMC Minutes: "Could be greater scope for economic growth without putting undue pressure on labor markets"
- BLS: Job Openings decreased in August
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Job Openings, FOMC Minutes
- Fed Economic Letter: "What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?"
- Demographics: Renting vs. Owning
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "dips" in September
- Duy: Jobs Data Keeps Hawks Sidelined
- Off-Topic: Litmus Test Moments and the Debate
- Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2016
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year
- Schedule for Week of Oct 9, 2016
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "stumbles" in September
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales up 8% YoY, Inventory down 18%
- Employment Comments: Another Decent Report
- September Employment Report: 156,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs
- Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up 6%, Inventory up 3% YoY
- Goldman's September NFP Preview
- Hurricanes and Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 249,000, 4-Week Average Lowest Since 1973
- Preview of September Employment Report
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate decreased in Q3 2016, Strip Mall Vacancy Rate increased
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased sharply to 57.1% in September
- Trade Deficit at $40.7 Billion in August
- ADP: Private Employment increased 154,000 in September
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Index
- Fed: Q2 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 4.4%
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.2% Year-over-year in August
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.7 million annual rate in September
- Construction Spending declined in August
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 16.0%
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 51.5 in September
- Black Knight August Mortgage Monitor: "Purchase Lending Highest Since 2007"
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
- SNL on The Debate
- September 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 177 Institutions, Q3 2016 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of Oct 2, 2016
September 2016
- Mortgage Rates "Near All Time Lows"
- Restaurant Performance Index decreased in August
- Chicago PMI increase in September, Final Sept Consumer Sentiment at 91.2
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in August, Spending increased less than 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in August, Lowest since April 2008
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Similar YoY Growth in August for the Case-Shiller Indexes
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.4% in August, down 0.2% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 254,000
- Q2 GDP Revised Up to 1.4% Annual Rate
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in August, Lowest since July 2008
- OPEC Agrees to Cut Oil Output
- Update on "Peak Renter"
- ATA Trucking Index increased Sharply in August
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Lawler: Renter Share of Single-Family Market Declined Slightly in 2015
- Chemical Activity Barometer indicated "Solid Growth in September"
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
- Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Still Soft" in September
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Duy on the Fed: "December Looking Good. But ..."
- A few Comments on August New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 609,000 Annual Rate in August
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.4% in July, Up 5.3% year-over-year
- Monday: New Home Sales, Presidential Debate
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Rebound in September
- Schedule for Week of Sept 25, 2016
- FDIC Closes Bank in Arkansas; Fifth Failed Bank of 2016
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in August
- Unemployment and Wages: "A Dirty Little Secret"
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in August
- Lawler on August Existing Home Sales
- FHFA: House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in July
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Rebounded Moderately" in September
- A Few Comments on August Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales decreased in August to 5.33 million SAAR
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 252,000
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies declined in August
- Merrill: "Fed signals December hike"
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, "The case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index declines in August
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
- Look Back: In 2006 I predicted House Prices would fall 40%+ in the Bay Area
- Comments on August Housing Starts
- BLS: Unemployment Rates stable in 41 states in August
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.142 Million Annual Rate in August
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Kolko: "Unpacking the Jump In Median Household Income"
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases to 65 in September
- Hotels: "Demand Growth Slows, Supply Growth Increases"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Preview: Existing Home Sales
- Schedule for Week of Sept 18, 2016
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Slightly Positive in Q2
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q2
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in August
- Early Look at 2017 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- CPI increased 0.2% in August, Core CPI up 2.3% YoY
- Friday: CPI, Flow of Funds
- LA area Port Traffic: Exports Increased in August
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.4% year-over-year in July
- CoreLogic: "548,000 US Homeowners Regained Equity in the Second Quarter of 2016"
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in August
- Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 260,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Unemployment Claims and More
- Review of FOMC Projections
- Las Vegas: On Pace for Record Visitor Traffic and Convention Attendance in 2016
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Mortgage Rates "Pushing into Post-Brexit Highs"
- House Prices to Median Household Income
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased Slightly in August
- Hilsenrath: Fed "Inclined to Stand Pat"
- Why Do Business Channels Ask former Executives about Economic Policy?
- WTI Oil Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year, Little Drag on Inflation
- Fed Governor Lael Brainard: "Asymmetry in risk ... counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation"
- Update: U.S. Heavy Truck Sales Slump Continues
- Sunday Night Futures
- Sacramento Housing in August: Sales up 8%, Active Inventory down 2% YoY
- Schedule for Week of Sept 11, 2016
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate shows gain in August
- When are people with Foreclosures and Short Sales eligible to borrow again?
- Q3 GDP Forecasts
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- "Most lenders continue to offer 30yr fixed quotes around 3.375% on top tier scenarios"
- EIA: "The average pump price for December is on track to be the lowest for the month in eight years"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales up 10% YoY, Inventory down 15%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 259,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 14%, Inventory up 3% YoY
- Fed's Beige Book: "Upward wage pressures increased and were moderate on balance"
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 150,000 jobs
- BLS: Job Openings increased in July to Record High
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: JOLTS, Beige Book, Preliminary Annual Employment Benchmark Revision
- My interview with Barry Ritholtz
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 51.4% in August
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.0% Year-over-year in July
- Black Knight July Mortgage Monitor: "Purchase Lending Highest Since 2007"
- Tuesday: ISM non-Mfg Index
- August Employment Revisions
- Sunday Night: Happy Labor Day!
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Schedule for Week of Sept 4, 2016
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Trade Deficit at $39.5 Billion in July
- Employment Comments: A Decent Report
- August Employment Report: 151,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Trade Deficit
- Goldman's August NFP Preview
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.9 million annual rate in August
- Construction Spending unchanged in July
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 49.4 in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 263,000
August 2016
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
- Restaurant Performance Index increased slightly in July
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.3% in July, up 1.4% year-over-year
- ADP: Private Employment increased 177,000 in August
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: ADP employment, Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in July, Lowest since May 2008
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q2
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in July
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.8% in June, Up 5.3% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Increases in August
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 0.3%
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in July
- Schedule for Week of Aug 28, 2016
- August 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 184 Institutions
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Weaken in August, Still Around 17 Million SAAR
- Comments on Home Sales in July
- Yellen: "Case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened"
- Q2 GDP Revised Down to 1.1% Annual Rate
- Friday: Yellen, GDP
- Back in Town, Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 262,000
- Thursday: Travel Day
- Existing Home Sales decline in July to 5.39 million SAAR
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Suggests Accelerated Business Activity"
- New Home Sales increased to 654,000 Annual Rate in July, Highest since October 2007
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
- Black Knight's First Look at July Mortgage Data
- Sunday Night Futures
- Horizontal Rig Counts increase slightly
- Schedule for Week of Aug 21, 2016
- 2007: Tanta Changed the Blogging World
- From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd
- December 2006: Tanta joined CR!
- Friday: Travel Day
- LA area Port Traffic Mostly Unchanged in July
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Weak Growth in August
- Zillow: Negative Equity Rate declined in Q2 2016
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 262,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- FOMC Minutes: "Near-term risks to the domestic outlook had diminished"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index "moderates slightly, remains positive" in July
- Sacramento Housing in July: Sales down 7%, Active Inventory down 10% YoY
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Comments on July Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in July
- Early Look at 2017 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.7% in July
- Housing Starts increased to 1.211 Million Annual Rate in July
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI, Industrial Production
- Update: Predicting the Next Recession
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 4.8% year-over-year in June
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases to 60 in August
- NY Fed: August "General business conditions index fell five points to -4.2"
- WTI Oil Prices UP Year-over-year
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year
- Schedule for Week of Aug 14, 2016
- "Mortgage Rates Drop Back to 1-Month Lows"
- The Housing Bottom and Comparing Recoveries
- Preliminary August Consumer Sentiment at 90.4
- Retail Sales unchanged in July
- Friday: Retail Sales, PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Mortgage Delinquencies and the Unemployment Rate
- MBA: "Delinquencies and Foreclosures Continue to Drop" in Q2
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 266,000
- Memory Lane: From 2005 just as Housing Inventory started to Increase
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in June
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- EIA: "Gasoline prices at 16-week low, expected to average less than $2 a gallon by December"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales down 10% YoY, Inventory down 1%
- NY Fed: Household Debt Increased Slightly in Q2 2016, Delinquency Rates Declined
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased Slightly in July
- Tuesday: Small Business Index, Q2 2016 Household Debt and Credit Report
- Update: U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales down 2%, Inventory up 3% YoY
- Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio
- Sunday Night Futures
- More Employment Graphs: Prime Age Participation, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and more
- Schedule for Week of Aug 7, 2016
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Trade Deficit at $44.5 Billion in June
- Employment Comments: Another Strong Report
- July Employment Report: 255,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages
- NAHB: Builder Confidence "Remains in Positive Territory" for 55+ Housing Market in Q2
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q2, Down 33% Year-over-year
- Goldman's July NFP Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 269,000
- Preview of July Employment Report
- Off-Topic: Update on Litmus Test Moments
- Q2 2016 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.5% in July
- ADP: Private Employment increased 179,000 in July
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Index
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.8 million annual rate in July
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.7% Year-over-year in June
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in June, Spending increased 0.4%
- Tuesday: Personal Income & Outlays, July Auto Sales
- Fed Survey: Banks tightened Standards on Commercial Real Estate, Residential Real Estate demand strengthened
- Construction Spending decreased 0.6% in June
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 52.6 in July
- Black Knight June Mortgage Monitor: "Brexit’ Effect Increases Refinanceable Population to 8.7 Million"
July 2016
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in June
- Schedule for Week of July 31, 2016
- July 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 196 Institutions
- Lawler: Homebuilder Summary Table for Q2 2016
- Restaurant Performance Index declined in June
- Q2 GDP: Investment Slump
- Chicago PMI declines in July, Final July Consumer Sentiment at 90.0
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.2% Annualized Rate in Q2
- Friday: Q2 GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since May 2008
- Zillow Forecast: Expect slightly slower YoY Growth in June for the Case-Shiller Indexes
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Declined Modestly" in July
- HVS: Q2 2016 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 264,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in June, Lowest since July 2008
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Upgrade Economy, Risks "diminished"
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased Slightly in June, up 1.0% year-over-year
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May
- A few Comments on June New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 592,000 Annual Rate in June, Highest since 2008
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in May
- Black Knight's First Look at June Mortgage Data
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in June
- FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike, Possibly Preparing for September Rate Hike
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Stabilizes" in July
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.1% in May, Up 5.4% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Future is still Bright!
- Schedule for Week of July 24, 2016
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR in July
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year
- BLS: Unemployment Rates stable in 43 states in June
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in July Survey
- A Few Comments on June Existing Home Sales
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Contraction in July
- Existing Home Sales increased in June to 5.57 million SAAR
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declined to 253,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, FHFA House Price Index
- CoreLogic: Orange County Median Home Prices Hit New Record
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index "remains on solid footing" in June
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Existing Home Sales: Take the Over
- WSJ: "A rate increase could come as early as September if economic data hold firm"
- Comments on June Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 1.189 Million Annual Rate in June
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- LA area Port Traffic Mostly Unchanged in June
- NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 59 in July
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 4.9% year-over-year in May
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking just behind Record Year
- Schedule for Week of July 17, 2016
- Earlier: Preliminary Consumer Sentiment at 89.5 in July
- First Look at 2017 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in June
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.6% in June
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in June
- Friday: Retail Sales, CPI, Industrial Production and More
- Looking back 7 Years Ago: The Sluggish Recovery Began
- Sacramento Housing in June: Sales up 1.8%, Active Inventory down 12% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchanged at 254,000
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace" in most Districts
- Q2 GDP Forecasts
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey "
- Wednesday: Beige Book
- When are people with Foreclosures and Short Sales eligible to borrow again?
- BLS: Job Openings decreased in May
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased Again in June
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- House Prices to National Average Wage Index
- Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 9%, Inventory up 7% YoY
- Black Knight: "425,000 Borrowers Out from Underwater on Mortgages" in Q1
- Sunday Night Futures
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Schedule for Week of July 10, 2016
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales Increased 7% YoY
- Employment Comments: A Strong Report following a Weak Report
- June Employment Report: 287,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages
- Goldman's June NFP Preview
- Preview of June Employment Report
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 2016, Strip Mall Vacancy Rate declined
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declines to 254,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 172,000 in June
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Minutes: Concerns about slowing Labor Market, Brexit
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.5%
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.5% in June
- Trade Deficit at $41.1 Billion in May
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Surge in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Mortgage Rates at Record Lows
- The Verizon Strike and the June Employment Report
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q2 to 16.0%
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.9% Year-over-year in May
- Ouch: Open-ended UK Property Fund suspends trading
- June NFP Forecasts
- Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2016
- Schedule for Week of July 3, 2016
- "6-Day Winning Streak Leaves Mortgage Rates Near All-Time Lows"
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.6 million annual rate in June
- Construction Spending decreased 0.8% in May
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 53.2 in June
- Friday: Auto Sales, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
June 2016
- Restaurant Performance Index declined in May
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in May
- Chicago PMI increased in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 268,000
- Zillow Forecast: Expect About the Same Growth in May for the Case-Shiller Indexes
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in May
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 3.7% in May, down 0.2% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in May, Spending increased 0.4%
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May
- Earlier from Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Declined in June
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in April
- Q1 GDP Revised Up to 1.1% Annual Rate
- Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices
- ATA Trucking Index increased in May
- U.S. Demographics: Ten most common ages in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity declined again in June
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.0% in April, Up 5.4% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Largest 5-year Population Cohorts are now "20 to 24" and "25 to 29"
- Schedule for Week of June 26, 2016
- June 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 203 Institutions, Q2 2016 Transition Matrix
- Mortgage Rates Near Record Lows
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 38 states in May
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR again in June
- Consumer Sentiment at 93.5 in June
- Federal Reserve on Brexit
- Friday: Brexit Result, Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking just behind Record Year
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in May
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Increased Slightly" in June
- New Home Sales decreased to 551,000 Annual Rate in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 259,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased "Sharply" in May
- A Few Comments on May Existing Home Sales
- Black Knight's First Look at May Mortgage Data; Foreclosure Inventory down 29% YoY
- Existing Home Sales increased in May to 5.53 million SAAR
- MBA: Mortgage "Rates Drop, Refi Apps Jump in Latest Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, Fed Chair Yellen
- CoreLogic: Orange County home prices above Bubble Peak
- Chemical Activity Barometer indicated "Solid Growth in June"
- Yellen: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Atlanta Fed: "Wage Growth moved Higher in May"
- Tuesday: Fed Chair Yellen
- Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales up 6%, Inventory up YoY
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.6% year-over-year in April
- Sunday Night Futures
- LA area Port Traffic Increased in May, Busiest May in Port of Los Angeles History
- Schedule for Week of June 19, 2016
- Oil: Horizontal Rig Counts Increased Slightly Again
- Comments on May Housing Starts
- BLS: Unemployment Rates stable in 41 states in May
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.164 Million Annual Rate in May
- Friday: Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
- Lawler: Single-Family Home Production in 2015: Small Number, Big Homes
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in May
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases to 60 in June
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Expansion in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 277,000
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Homebuilder Survey, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler: The More Things Change ...
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in May
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement, Industrial Production, PPI, Empire State Mfg
- Off Topic: #NothingCanBeDone
- U.S. Population Distribution by Age, 1900 through 2060
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in May
- Retail Sales increased 0.5% in May
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Small Business Survey
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Will the Rebound in Oil Prices Rescue the Houston Housing Market?
- Sacramento Housing in May: Sales up 3.5%, Active Inventory down 18% YoY
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview and Review of Projections
- Schedule for Week of June 12, 2016
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking just behind Record Year
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Earlier: Consumer Sentiment at 94.3, Current Economic Conditions Highest since 2005
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- Merrill Lynch: Some Signs of Slowing at Housing High End
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Slightly Negative in Q1
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q1
- CoreLogic: "268,000 US Homeowners Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2016"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 264,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q1 Flow of Funds
- Lehner: "The Housing Trilemma"
- Zillow: Negative Equity Rate declined in Q1 2016
- BLS: Job Openings increased in April
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- U.S. Births decreased slightly in 2015
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate shows gain in May
- Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales Decreased Slightly YoY, Inventory Increases
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.2% Year-over-year in April
- Duy on Fed: "June is off the table, September is coming into focus"
- Why Did the Unemployment Rate fall Sharply with Few Jobs Added?
- Yellen: Current Conditions and the Outlook for the U.S. Economy
- Black Knight: First Time Foreclosure Starts Lowest on Record
- Monday: Yellen
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of June 5, 2016
- Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month
- Earlier: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 52.9% in May
- Trade Deficit at $37.4 Billion in April
- Comments: A Disappointing Employment Report
- May Employment Report: 38,000 Jobs, 4.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages, Trade Deficit
- Preview of May Employment Report
- Goldman's May NFP Preview
- The Verizon Strike and the May Employment Report
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 267,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 173,000 in May
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.4 million annual rate in May
- Fed's Beige Book: "Modest economic growth" in most Districts
- Construction Spending decreased 1.8% in April
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 51.3 in May
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
May 2016
- Wednesday: ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending, Auto Sales, Beige Book
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity declined in May
- Case-Shiller Graphs: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in March
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in March
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in April, Spending increased 1.0%
- Tuesday: Personal Income and Outlays, Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI
- Hamilton: 'Trends in oil supply and demand'
- Gasoline Prices: Down 40 cents per gallon from last year on Memorial Day
- The War on Data
- May 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 205 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of May 29, 2016
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in April
- Lawler: Sustained Regional Home Price Declines Were Not That Uncommon from the Mid-80’s to the Mid-90’s
- Consumer Sentiment at 94.7
- Q1 GDP Revised Up to 0.8% Annual Rate
- Friday: GDP, Yellen
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR in May
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "declined modestly" in May
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 5.1% in April, up 4.6% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 268,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in April
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in April
- FHFA: House Prices increased 0.7% in March, New Zip Code HPI Data
- MBA: "Purchase Applications Increase and Refis Hold Steady in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Chemical Activity Barometer increased in May
- New Home Prices
- Comments on April New Home Sales
- NY Fed: Household Debt Increased in Q1 2016, Delinquency Rates Declined
- New Home Sales increased sharply to 619,000 Annual Rate in April
- Black Knight's First Look at April Mortgage Data: Lowest Number of Foreclosure Starts in 10 Years
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg, Q1 2016 Household Debt and Credit Report
- Year-over-year Change in Oil Prices
- Goldman Sachs on Rate Hike Odds: 35% in June, 35% in July
- CoreLogic: Far Fewer Low Credit Score Applicants Than Before Housing Crisis
- Sunday Night Futures
- An update on oil prices
- Schedule for Week of May 22, 2016
- A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales
- BLS: Unemployment Rates stable in 41 states in April
- Existing Home Sales increased in April to 5.45 million SAAR
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- LA area Port Traffic Declined in April
- Earlier: Chicago Fed "Index shows economic growth picked up in April"
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Slight Contraction in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 278,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- FOMC Minutes: "Most participants judged" that June rate hike "appropriate" based on data
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Shows Continued Modest Growth"
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Comments on April Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in April
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in April
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.7% in April
- Housing Starts increased to 1.172 Million Annual Rate in April
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI, Industrial Production
- Duy: Fed Considers June still possible for Rate Hike
- NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 58 in May
- NY Fed: May "General business conditions turned negative, falling nineteen points to -9.0"
- Monday: Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- Neil Irwin in the NY Times: How life has changed in America over the last 150 Years
- Schedule for Week of May 15, 2016
- Earlier: Preliminary Consumer Sentiment increases to 95.8
- Sacramento Housing in April: Sales down 3.3%, Active Inventory down 17% YoY
- Retail Sales increased 1.3% in April
- Off-Topic: A Comment on Litmus Test Moments
- MBA: "Foreclosures Continue to Decrease, Delinquencies Flat" in Q1
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking just behind Record Year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 294,000
- Two Years Ago: Housing Doom and Gloom
- Q1 2016 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Slightly Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased in March
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in April
- "Mortgage Rates Steady Near 3-Year Lows"
- Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales up 1%, Inventory up YoY
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Merrill on Fed: "See you in September"
- Schedule for Week of May 8, 2016
- Lawler: Q1 Home Builder Results
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: A Decent Employment Report
- April Employment Report: 160,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs and Wages
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q1, Down 34% Year-over-year
- Goldman's April NFP Preview
- Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Increased 4% YoY, Inventory Declines Slightly
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 274,000
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in March, Lowest since Aug 2008
- Preview of April Employment Report
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.7% in April
- Trade Deficit decreased in March to $40.4 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 156,000 in April
- MBA: Mortgage "Refis Down, Purchases Flat in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM non-Manufacturing
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.4 million annual rate in April
- The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: Auto Sales
- Fed Survey: Banks ease Standards on Residential Real Estate, Credit Quality in Oil Regions "deteriorated somewhat"
- Construction Spending increased 0.3% in March
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 50.8 in April
- Black Knight March Mortgage Monitor
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE hit another All Time Low in March
April 2016
- Schedule for Week of May 1, 2016
- April 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 214 Institutions
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March, Lowest since June 2008
- Lawler:Updated Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in March
- Chicago PMI declines in April, Final April Consumer Sentiment at 89.0
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in March, Spending increased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- HVS: Q1 2016 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Q1 GDP: Investment
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "declined modestly" in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 257,000, Lowest 4-Week Average since 1973
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 0.5% Annualized Rate in Q1
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims
- Analysis: Rate Hike in June depends mostly on Inflation
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Less Global Concern
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Slower Growth in March for the Case-Shiller Indexes
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.4% in March, up 1.4% year-over-year
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Pending Home Sales
- Duy: Fed Is Meeting Today, Talking About June
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Accelerated" in April
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.3% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: "April Sales to Return to 17 Million SAAR Trend"
- Comments on March New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 511,000 Annual Rate in March
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.7% in February, Up 5.3% year-over-year
- Monday: New Home Sales
- FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike, Risks "Nearly Balanced"
- Schedule for Week of April 24, 2016
- Year 5: It Never Rains in California
- Goldman: Expect FOMC statement next week to say risks are "nearly balanced"
- ATA Trucking Index decreased in March
- Black Knight's First Look at March Mortgage Data: Delinquency rate lowest in 9 Years
- NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index declined in April Survey
- Earlier: Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth below average in March"
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Slight Contraction in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 247,000
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in March
- A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Ends the First Quarter on an Upswing"
- Existing Home Sales increased in March to 5.33 million SAAR
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in March
- Comments on March Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.089 Million Annual Rate in March
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in March
- Ranking Economic Data
- NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 58 in April
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking close to Record Year
- Schedule for Week of April 17, 2016
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in February
- Earlier: Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment decreases to 89.7
- BLS: Unemployment Rate decreased in 21 States in March
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.6% in March
- NY Fed: April "General business conditions climbed nine points, highest in more than a year"
- Friday: Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- LA area Port Traffic Decreased Sharply YoY in March due to Labor Slowdown last Year
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 253,000
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity expanded in the "modest to moderate range" in most Districts
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
- Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in March
- MBA: "Mortgage Apps Jump 10% in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, PPI, Beige Book
- Treasury: Budget Deficit increased in Fiscal 2016 to Date compared to Fiscal 2015
- CoreLogic: Foreclosure Inventory Declines 23.9% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declined slightly in March
- "Mortgage Rates Holding Near 3-Year Lows"
- Update: The California Budget Surplus
- Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield
- Report: U.S. Office Vacancy Increased Slightly in Q1 2016
- Sunday Night Futures
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE at All Time Low
- Schedule for Week of April 10, 2016
- Sacramento Housing in March: Sales up 4.7%, Inventory down 17% YoY
- WSJ: "Housing Bust Lingers for Generation X"
- Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2016
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 43 states in January
- Merrill: "Fading the first quarter GDP fade"
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking just behind Record Year
- Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 9%, Inventory up YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 267,000
- Lawler: Yellen on Household Formations “Not Keeping Up;” What Is Her Data Source?
- FOMC Minutes: Many participants argued "asymmetry made it prudent to wait for additional information"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales Increased 4% YoY, Inventory Declines
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q1 2016
- MBA: "Refinance Applications Drive Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Goldman: "Household Formation Close to Normal"
- Earlier: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 54.5% in March
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q1 to 4.5%
- BLS: Jobs Openings "little changed" in February
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.8% Year-over-year in February
- Trade Deficit Increased in February to $47.1 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM non-Mfg
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q1 to 16.2%
- Black Knight February Mortgage Monitor
- Sunday Night Futures
- The El Niño Bust in California
- Schedule for Week of April 3, 2016
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 16.45 million annual rate in March
- Construction Spending decreased 0.5% in February
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 51.8 in March
- Comments: Another Solid Employment Report
- March Employment Report: 215,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate
March 2016
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in February, Lowest since Sept 2008
- Preview: Employment Report for March
- Goldman: March Payrolls Preview
- Chicago PMI increases to 53.6
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 276,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since July 2008
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Slightly Slower Growth in February for the Case-Shiller Indexes
- ADP: Private Employment increased 200,000 in March
- MBA: "Refinance Applications Down, Purchase Applications Up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Mortgage News Daily: "Mortgage Rates Drop After Yellen Speech"
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January
- Yellen: The Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.4% year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: Yellen, Case-Shiller House Prices
- ATA Trucking Index increased 7.2% in February
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in January, Up 5.3% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Rebounds in March"
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 3.5% in February, up 0.7% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in February, Spending increased 0.1%
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales
- Hotels: Supply increased faster than Demand in January and February
- Schedule for Week of March 27, 2016
- March 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 222 Institutions, Q1 2016 Transition Matrix
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.0% year-over-year in January
- BLS: Unemployment Rate decreased in 22 States in February
- Q4 GDP Revised Up to 1.4% Annual Rate
- Goldman: "Inflation Finally Begins to Firm"
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Reach All Time High for the Month of March
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "remained negative" in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 265,000
- Thursday: Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims
- Comments on February New Home Sales
- AIA: "Modest Expansion for Architecture Billings Index"
- New Home Sales increased to 512,000 Annual Rate in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 25% YoY
- Black Knight's First Look at February Mortgage Data: Delinquency rate lowest since April 2007
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer Expands in March
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Sector Activity Expanded in March
- Lawler: “Shortfall” in Single-Family Production Almost All in Moderately Sized Homes
- Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Table of Distressed Sales for Selected Cities in February
- A Few Comments on February Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales decreased in February to 5.08 million SAAR
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth slowed in February"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Mortgage News Daily: "Lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates of 3.75%"
- Schedule for Week of March 20, 2016
- When will I make another "Big" economic call?
- Fed: Q4 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low
- Preliminary March Consumer Sentiment decreases to 90.0
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
- Metrostudy: “LOTS to Talk About”
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Expansion in March
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 265,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Job Openings
- Comments on February Housing Starts
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Concern about Global developments
- Key Measures Show Inflation slightly above 2% in February
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.5% in February
- Housing Starts increased to 1.178 Million Annual Rate in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 33% YoY
- Wednesday: FOMC, Housing Starts, CPI, Industrial Production
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.4% year-over-year in January
- Goldman: "We see the cyclical 'participation gap' as nearly closed"
- NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 58 in March
- Retail Sales decreased 0.1% in February
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, PPI, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Confidence
- FOMC Preview and Review of Projections
- BLS: Unemployment Rate decreased in 28 States in January
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of March 13, 2016
- Sacramento Housing in February: Sales down 1.5%, Inventory down 24% YoY
- LA area Port Traffic Increased Sharply YoY in February due to Labor Slowdown last Year
- Merle Hazard: "How Long (Will Interest Rates Stay Low)?"
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Slightly Negative in Q4
- Goldman: "Quits and Gross Hiring Are Mostly Back to Normal"
- Fannie Mae: "Millennials ... Are the Driving Force Behind the Recent Surge in Apartment Demand"
- Hotel Occupancy in 2016: Tracking Just Behind 2015
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q4
- CoreLogic: "1 Million US Borrowers Regained Equity in 2015"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 259,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Quarterly Services, Flow of Funds
- Update: Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Update: U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 30% YoY
- Hilsenrath: Fed to "Keep Options Open for April or June"
- Demographics: Renting vs. Owning
- Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales down 3%, Inventory down slightly
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in February
- Tuesday: Small Business Optimism
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down about 15% Year-over-year
- Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales Increased 9% YoY, Inventory Up Slightly
- Black Knight January Mortgage Monitor
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Labor Force Participation
- Schedule for Week of March 6, 2016
- WSJ: Oil Prices up 37% since Low in February
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: A Strong Employment Report
- Trade Deficit Increased in January to $45.7 Billion
- February Employment Report: 242,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Goldman Payroll Preview: 195K Forecast
- Preview: Employment Report for February
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Decreased to 53.4% in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 278,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg Survey
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity expanded in most Districts"
- Zillow Forecast: Expect "Modestly Slower Growth" in January for the Case-Shiller Indexes than in December
- ADP: Private Employment increased 214,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 27% YoY
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.43 million annual rate in February
- Construction Spending increased 1.5% in January
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 49.5 in February
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales, Construction Spending
February 2016
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in January
- Restaurant Performance Index indicates expansion in January
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Contracts Again" in February
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.5% in January, up 1.4% year-over-year
- Chicago PMI declines to 47.6
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in December, Up 5.5% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotel Occupancy in 2016: Tracking Record Year
- February 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 228 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of February 28, 2016
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased slightly in January
- Earlier: February Consumer Sentiment at 91.7
- Personal Income increased 0.5% in January, Spending increased 0.5%
- Q4 GDP Revised Up to 1.0% Annual Rate
- Friday: GDP, Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
- Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Table of Distressed Sales for Selected Cities in January
- A comment on the Labor Force Participation Rate
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "declined further" in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 272,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Reach 15-Year High for a February
- Comments on January New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 494,000 Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 27% YoY
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December
- A Few Comments on January Existing Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Slips" in February
- Existing Home Sales increased in January to 5.47 million SAAR
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.4% year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- A comment on the January Black Knight Mortgage Delinquency Data
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 4.2% year-over-year in December
- Black Knight's First Look at January Mortgage Data
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth picked up in January"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 34% Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of February 21, 2016
- Goldman: Inflation "likely to rise more than bond markets currently discount"
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in January
- CPI unchanged in January, Core CPI up 2.2% YoY
- Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 6%
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q4
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed modest contraction in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 262,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Comments on January Housing Starts
- FOMC Minutes: Economic and Financial developments "increasing the downside risks to the outlook"
- AIA: "Slight Contraction in Architecture Billings Index "
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.9% in January
- Housing Starts declined to 1.099 Million Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 30% YoY
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, PPI, FOMC Minutes and More
- SoCal home sales increased 7.3% YoY in January
- NAHB: Builder Confidence declined to 58 in February
- NY Fed: "Business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers" in February
- Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, NAHB Homebuilder Survey
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.2% year-over-year in December
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending
- LA area Port Traffic Increased YoY in January, Busiest January in LA Port History
- Schedule for Week of February 14, 2016
- Mortgage News Daily: "Lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates of 3.65%"
- Hotel Occupancy: 2016 Tracking Record Year
- NY Fed: Household Debt Increased "Modestly" in Q4 2015, Delinquency Rates Declined
- Preliminary February Consumer Sentiment decreases to 90.7
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in January
- Sacramento Housing in January: Sales up 3.9%, Inventory down 25% YoY
- An update on oil prices
- AIA Forecast: 8% increase in Nonresidential Construction in 2016
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 269,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Janet Yellen
- Las Vegas: Record Visitor Traffic in 2015, Conventions Returning
- Hilsenrath on Yellen
- Yellen: "Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 25% YoY
- "Mortgage Rates Well Into Mid 3's"
- EIA: Record Oil Inventories, Gasoline Prices expected to average $1.98/gal in 2016
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased in December
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in January
- Tuesday: Small Business Confidence, Job Openings
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year
- Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Increased 5% YoY, Inventory Up Slightly
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- Schedule for Week of February 7, 2016
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: A Solid Employment Report
- Trade Deficit Increased in December to $43.4 Billion
- January Employment Report: 151,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate (Graphs Included)
- January Employment Report: 151,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- U.S. Courts: "Bankruptcy Filings Drop 10 Percent in Calendar Year 2015"
- Lawler: Home Builder Results: Net Orders Decent, Deliveries Lag a Bit, Order Backlog Jumps
- Goldman Payroll Preview: 170K Forecast
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 285,000
- Tim Duy's Fed Watch: "Resisting Change?"
- Goldman Forecast: No Rate Hike in March
- Preview: Employment Report for January
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Decreased to 53.5% in January
- ADP: Private Employment increased 205,000 in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 17% YoY
- "Mortgage Rates Down to New 8-Month Lows"
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.46 million annual rate in January
- The Return of Alt-A?
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in December
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in December
- Black Knight December Mortgage Monitor
- Construction Spending increased 0.1% in December, Up 10.5% in 2015 vs 2014
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 48.2 in January
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in December, Spending decreased slightly
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending
January 2016
- Hotel Occupancy: Solid Start for 2016
- January 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 238 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of January 31, 2016
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in December
- Q4 GDP: Investment
- Chicago PMI increases Sharply, Final January Consumer Sentiment at 92.0
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 0.7% Annualized Rate in Q4
- Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in December, Lowest since September 2008
- HVS: Q4 2015 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Declined Further in January
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.1% in December, up 4.2% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 278,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales and More
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, Uncertain about rise in inflation
- Comments on December New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 544,000 Annual Rate in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 22% YoY
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, New Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Notches Slight Gain " in January
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November
- BLS: Unemployment Rate decreased in 25 States in December
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.3% year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Reach 10-Year High for a January
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Falls Sharply" in January
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in November, Up 5.5% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Gasoline Prices and Exurbia
- Schedule for Week of January 24, 2016
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 4.3% year-over-year in November
- Black Knight's First Look at December Mortgage Data
- A Few Random Comments on December Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales increased in December to 5.46 million SAAR
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth below average in December"
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Private Investment and the Business Cycle
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "modest" contraction in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 293,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Ends Year on Positive Note"
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in December
- Comments on December Housing Starts
- Housing Starts declined to 1.149 Million Annual Rate in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 17% YoY
- Wednesday: CPI, Housing Starts
- Mortgage News Daily: "Lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates of 3.875% on top tier scenarios"
- ATA Trucking Index increased 1% in December
- Existing Home Sales: Take the Over
- NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 60 in January
- Monday Night Futures
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December and Post-Mortem on November
- Update: Predicting the Next Recession
- Hamilton: "World oil supply and demand"
- Bank Failures by Year
- Schedule for Week of January 17, 2016
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.0% year-over-year in November
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices "Continued Climb" in November, up 12% year-over-year
- Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.3
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in December
- Retail Sales decreased 0.1% in December
- LA area Port Traffic Decreased YoY in December
- Mortgage News Daily: "Lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates in a range of 3.875% to 4.0%"
- NMHC: "Apartment Markets Recede in the January NMHC Quarterly Survey"
- Duy: "So You Think A Recession Is Imminent ..."
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 284,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Sacramento Housing in December: Sales up 19.6%, Inventory down 28% YoY
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity expanded"
- Is Oil "Cheap"?
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 19% YoY
- Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 8%
- An update on oil prices
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased in November
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in December
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Question #1 for 2016: How much will the economy grow in 2016?
- Question #2 for 2016: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2016?
- Black Knight November Mortgage Monitor: First Time Foreclosure Starts Lowest on Record
- Sunday Night Futures: Brent Oil Price Lowest Since 2004
- Question #3 for 2016: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2016?
- Schedule for Week of January 11, 2016
- Merrill: Warm Weather "added nearly 100,000 jobs in December"
- Question #4 for 2016: Will the core inflation rate rise in 2016? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2016?
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: Another Strong Employment Report
- December Employment Report: 292,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate Declined in Q4
- Preview: Employment Report for December
- Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales Increased 20% YoY, Inventory Down
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 277,000
- Question #5 for 2016: Will the Fed raise rates in 2016, and if so, by how much?
- FOMC Minutes: "some members said that their decision to raise the target range was a close call"
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4 to 4.4%
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Decreased to 55.3% in December
- Trade Deficit Decreased in November to $42.4 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 257,000 in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 22% YoY
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, FOMC Minutes, ISM Non-Mfg Index
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.2 million annual rate in December
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 16.3%
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: Auto Sales
- Fed: Q3 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low
- Construction Spending decreased 0.4% in November, Up 10.5% YoY
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 48.2 in December
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.2% in October, Up 5.5% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Question #6 for 2016: Will real wages increase in 2016?
- Schedule for Week of January 3, 2016
- December 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 250 Institutions, Q4 2015 Transition Matrix