2015
1,490 posts
2015 1,490
December 2015
- Hotel Occupancy: 2015 is Best Year on Record
- Goldman Forecast: "Questions for 2016"
- Question #7 for 2016: What about oil prices in 2016?
- Chicago PMI declines to 42.9
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 287,000
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: Record Production in 2016
- Zillow Forecast: Expect November Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index slightly higher than in October
- Question #8 for 2016: How much will Residential Investment increase?
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.9% in November, up 2.7% year-over-year
- From CNBC: "Luxury home prices finally getting too high?"
- Question #9 for 2016: What will happen with house prices in 2016?
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Freddie Mac Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in November, Fannie Mae Rate Unchanged
- Question #10 for 2016: How much will housing inventory increase in 2016?
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Rises Again, but Outlook Worsens" in December
- Sunday Night Futures
- Ten Economic Questions for 2016
- Schedule for Week of December 27th
- Happy Holidays!
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2015
- Black Knight's First Look at November Mortgage Data, "Fewer than 700,000 Active Foreclosures Remain"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 267,000
- Quintessential Tanta: Reflections on Alt-A (with a Donald Trump mention)
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 40 states in November
- Comments on November New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 490,000 Annual Rate in November
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in November, Spending increased 0.3%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 37% YoY
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Outlays and More
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Chemical Activity Barometer Ends Year with Modest Uptick"
- A Few Random Comments on November Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales declined in November to 4.76 million SAAR
- Q3 GDP Revised Down to 2.0% Annual Rate
- Tuesday: GDP, Existing Home Sales, and More
- Bloomberg: "How One Woman Tried To Warn Everyone About The Housing Crash"
- Existing Home Sales: Take the Under Tomorrow
- An update on oil prices
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows Economic Growth Slowed in November"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Lawler: "Yes, Houston will have a problem next year"
- Existing Home Sales: Expect a Miss
- Schedule for Week of December 20th
- Goldman Sachs on Fed Funds rate: "Fairly easy path to a second hike in March"
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Slightly Positive in Q3, First Time since Q1 2008
- What I like to see: Agencies Issue Statement on CRE Loans
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "declined moderately" in December
- BLS: Unemployment Rate decreased in 27 States in November
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.9% year-over-year in October
- LA area Port Traffic increased YoY in November
- Comments on November Housing Starts
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 271,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: Fed Funds Rate target range increased to 1/4 to 1/2 percent
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Hits another Bump " in November
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.6% in November
- Housing Starts increased to 1.173 Million Annual Rate in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 34% YoY
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Housing Starts, Industrial Production
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November: Big Drop
- Earlier: NY Fed: Manufacturing Contracts Again in Region, Outlook Improves
- Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in November
- NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 61 in December
- CoreLogic: "Number of Mortgaged Properties with Negative Equity Down 20.7% Year Over Year"
- CPI unchanged in November, Core CPI up 2.0% YoY
- Tuesday: CPI, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- Hotel Occupancy: Heading for a Record Year
- Merrill Lynch: "Home Sweet Home"
- Duy: "Makes You Wonder What The Fed Is Thinking"
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview and Review of Projections
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of December 13th
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Lower
- Nomura on FOMC: "Life after lift-off"
- Merrill on FOMC: "The not-so-dovish hike"
- Preliminary December Consumer Sentiment increases to 91.8
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in November
- Sacramento Housing in November: Sales up 11.5%, Inventory down 28% YoY
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Declined in Q3
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 282,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 Quarterly Services, Q3 Flow of Funds
- Hilsenrath: "Fed Plans to Signal Gradual, Cautious Path on Rate Hikes"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 29% YoY
- EIA: Gasoline Prices expected to average $2.36/gal in 2016
- The Future's so Bright ...
- BLS: Jobs Openings "little changed" in October
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declined in November
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Duy's Fed Watch: "And That's A Wrap"
- Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 6%, Inventory down 9%
- Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales Decreased Slightly, Inventory Down YoY
- Black Knight October Mortgage Monitor
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Endless Parade of Recession Calls
- Schedule for Week of December 6th
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: Solid November Employment Report
- Trade Deficit increased in October to $43.9 Billion
- November Employment Report: 211,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since October 2008
- Preview: Employment Report for November
- Goldman: November Employment Preview
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Decreased to 55.9% in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 269,000
- Thursday: Yellen, ISM Non-Mfg, Unemployment Claims
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased at a modest pace"
- Yellen: Expect Continued Growth, Further Reductions in Labor Slack, Inflation to Rise to 2 Percent
- ADP: Private Employment increased 217,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 30% YoY
- Wednesday: Yellen Speech, ADP Employment, Beige Book
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 18.2 million annual rate in November
- Construction Spending increased 1.0% in October, Up 13% YoY
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.8% Year-over-year in October
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 48.6 in November
- Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
November 2015
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in October
- Restaurant Performance Index indicates faster expansion in October
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.2% in October, up 3.9% year-over-year
- Chicago PMI declines to 48.7
- Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
- Hotels: Finishing Year Strong
- Schedule for Week of November 29th
- November 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 255 Institutions
- Zillow Forecast: Expect October Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to September
- Vehicle Sales Forecast for November: Over 18 Million Annual Rate Again?
- Something I'm very thankful for ...
- 2016: Updated Housing Forecasts
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 43 states in October
- Comments on October New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 495,000 Annual Rate in October
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in October, Spending increased 0.1%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declined to 260,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 24% YoY
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods, and more
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Chemical Activity Barometer Stabilizes"
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.9% year-over-year in September
- Q3 GDP Revised Up to 2.1% Annual Rate
- Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Kolko: "Why Millennials Still Live With Their Parents"
- A Few Random Comments on October Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in October: 5.36 million SAAR
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth improved in October"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Analysts: Q3 GDP to be Revised Up
- Schedule for Week of November 22nd
- Goldman Sachs: Expect FOMC to Raise Fed Funds Rate 100bp in 2016
- NY Fed: Household Debt increased $212 billion Q3 2015
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity expanded slightly in October, First Time since February
- BLS on State Unemployment Rates: No State at or above 7%, First Time since early 2007
- Merrill Lynch on economic impact of El Niño: Q1 "Risk" to Upside
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.3% year-over-year in August, Rolling 12 Months at All Time High
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in October
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed slight expansion in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declined to 271,000
- Sacramento Housing in October: Sales up 11%, Inventory down 22% YoY
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in October
- FOMC Minutes: "Most participants anticipated conditions could be met by next meeting"
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index on Solid Footing" in October
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.060 Million Annual Rate in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 19% YoY
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes
- El Niño Update: Possibly "most powerful on record"
- Key Measures Show Inflation somewhat higher in October
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q3
- NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 62 in November
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in October
- CPI increased 0.2% in October
- Tuesday: CPI, Industrial Production, MBA Q3 National Delinquency Survey
- Fed Economic Letter: "What’s Different about the Latest Housing Boom?"
- Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 2%, Inventory down 11%
- HUD: FHA'S 2015 Annual Report Shows Capital Reserves Now Exceed 2%, First Time Since 2008
- NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity Declined in November
- Sunday Night Futures
- LA area Port Traffic declined in October
- Schedule for Week of November 15th
- Goldman: Decline in Oil Prices boosted GDP by 0.2% in 2015
- Hotels: RevPAR up 35% over the last 6 years
- Flashback to 2006: "Housing prices have got a long way to fall"
- Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.1
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in October
- Friday: Retail Sales, PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Fed's Fischer: "The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Output and Inflation"
- Rosenberg on Labor Force Participation Rate
- Fed's Dudley and Evans
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased to 5.5 million in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchanged at 276,000
- Lawler: Post Mortem on Existing Home Sales in September
- Lawler: Large Home Builder Results, Q3/2015
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.1% year-over-year in September
- Goldman: "Health Inflation Should Soon Begin to Rise"
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 18% YoY
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Las Vegas: On Pace for Record Visitor Traffic in 2015, Conventions Returning
- Duy's Fed Watch: "Onto The Next Question"
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index unchanged in October
- Employment: October Diffusion Indexes
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year
- Housing: Inventory Build is Over in some Former Distressed Markets
- Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales Increased 6% YoY, Inventory Down YoY
- Sunday Night Futures
- 2016: Preliminary Housing Forecasts
- Schedule for Week of November 8th
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments: Strong October Employment Report, Seasonal Retail Hiring at Record Level
- October Employment Report: 271,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Fannie: REO inventory declined in Q3, Down 34% Year-over-year
- Hotels: The modest impact of Airbnb
- NFP: Goldman Employment Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 276,000
- FOMC's Yellen, Dudley: December Meeting is "Live"
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates up to 4%
- Preview: Employment Report for October
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.1% in October
- Trade Deficit decreased in September to $40.8 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 182,000 in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 20% YoY
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg Index
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 18.1 million annual rate in October
- Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q3, Down 31% Year-over-year
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.4% Year-over-year in September
- Tuesday: Auto Sales
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since August 2008
- Fed Survey: Banks reports stronger demand for CRE loans
- Construction Spending increased 0.6% in September, Up 14.1% YoY
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 50.1 in October
- Black Knight September Mortgage Monitor
- Monday: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
- Hotel Occupancy: 2015 on pace for Best Year Ever
October 2015
- Schedule for Week of November 1st
- October 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 264 Institutions
- Q3 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Restaurant Performance Index indicates slower expansion in September
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008
- Chicago PMI increases Sharply, Final October Consumer Sentiment at 90.0
- BEA: Personal Income increased 0.1% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-year
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Zillow Forecast: Expect September Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to August
- Lawler: Builders say Labor Shortages Delaying Closings, Pushing Up Costs; and Some Other Observations
- Q3 GDP: Investment
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.3% in September, up 3% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 260,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since 1973
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.5% Annualized Rate in Q3
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- FOMC Statement: No Rate Hike
- Bankruptcy Filings declined 11% in Fiscal 2015, Lowest Filings since 2007
- Merrill on FOMC: Expect No "major changes in policy or language"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 23% YoY
- Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys Weak Again in October
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August
- HVS: Q3 2015 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods
- Vehicle Sales Forecast for October: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again
- Comments on September New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 468,000 Annual Rate in September
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in August, Up 5.5% year-over-year
- Monday: New Home Sales
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Schedule for Week of October 25th
- Merrill on Q3 GDP and Headwinds
- Off topic: Hurricane Patricia
- A Few Random Comments on September Existing Home Sales
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in September
- Black Knight's First Look at September Mortgage Data
- Apartments: Q&A with NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky
- NMHC: Apartment Market Conditions Slightly Tighter in October Survey
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Steadied" in October
- Existing Home Sales in September: 5.55 million SAAR
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 259,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since 1973
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Apartment Tightness Index and More
- Payroll Employment and Unemployment Claims
- AIA: Strong Rebound for Architecture Billings Index in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 9% YoY
- Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales
- Comments on September Housing Starts
- BLS: Thirty-seven States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in September
- Housing Starts increased to 1.206 Million Annual Rate in September
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in September
- Ornithology: What is a "deficit hawk"?
- NAHB: Builder Confidence at 64 in October, Highest in 10 Years
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman Sachs Expects "Fed Liftoff" in December
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Schedule for Week of October 18th
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September
- Treasury: "There is Only One Solution to the Debt Limit"
- Earlier: Preliminary October Consumer Sentiment increases to 92.1
- BLS: Jobs Openings decreased to 5.4 million in August
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in September
- Friday: Industrial Production, Jobs Openings, Consumer Sentiment
- LA area Port Traffic declined in September
- Earlier: Philly and NY Fed Manufacturing Surveys showed contraction in October
- Key Measures Show Inflation slightly higher in September
- Cost of Living Adjustment Unchanged in 2016, Contribution Base also Unchanged
- CPI decreased 0.2% in September, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 255,000
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys
- Fed's Beige Book: "Modest Expansion in Economic Activity"
- Altanta Fed GDPNow tracking 0.9% for Q3
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Down Sharply due to TILA-RESPA regulatory change
- NBER Paper: "Strategic default rarely occurs"
- Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo: "I wouldn't expect it to be appropriate to raise rates this year"
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.5% year-over-year in August
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in September, Solid Improvement in Hiring
- Angus Deaton, Nobel in Economics
- CBO: Fiscal 2015 Budget deficit decline to 2.4% of GDP
- Lehner: "Is 2015 Peak Renter?"
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year
- Headlines from Columbus Day 2008
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman: Expects Participation Rate to decline 0.25% per year, Unemployment Rate to below 4.5%
- Schedule for Week of October 11, 2015
- Sacramento Housing in September: Sales up 13%, Inventory down 19% YoY
- Nomura on September CPI
- "Is 2015 Peak Renter?" @TheStalwart @adsteel
- Hotel Occupancy: 2015 on pace for Best Year Ever
- Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2015
- Merrill on September CPI
- Demographic Impacts: Renting vs. Owning, Labor Force Participation, GDP
- FOMC Minutes: Waiting on Inflation
- Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales Increased 10% YoY, Inventory Down YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 263,000
- Thursday: FOMC Minutes, Unemployment Claims
- Defeatists Policies #NothingCanBeDone
- Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up 12%, Inventory down 12%
- "Labor Market Gains Not Sparking a Single-Family Housing Recovery"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications "Up Sharply", Purchase Applications up 49% YoY
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates holding 3 7/8%
- Fed: Q2 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in August
- Trade Deficit increased in August to $48.3 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Black Knight August Mortgage Monitor
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.9% in September
- Sunday Night Futures
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Schedule for Week of October 4, 2015
- Bank Failures by Year
- Bank Failure #7 in 2015: Bank of Georgia, Peachtree City, Georgia
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- September Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q3 to 4.3%
- September Employment Report: 142,000 Jobs, 5.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Preview: Employment Report for September
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 18 million annual rate in September
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q3 to 16.5%
- Construction Spending increased 0.7% in August, Up 13.7% YoY
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 50.2 in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 277,000
- Thursday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Unemployment Claims
September 2015
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in August, Lowest since August 2008
- Restaurant Performance Index declines, Indicates slower expansion in August
- Chicago PMI declined sharply in September
- ADP: Private Employment increased 200,000 in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 20% YoY
- Wednesday: Unlikely Government Shutdown, ADP Employment, Chicago PMI
- Zillow Forecast: Expect August Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to July
- Shutdown Update
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in July
- Today in Fed Speak
- ATA Trucking Index decreased 0.9% in August
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in August, Lowest since October 2008
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Remains Steady" in September
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.4% in August, up 6% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in August, Spending increased 0.4%
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales
- A few comments on Possible Government Shutdown
- September 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 276 Institutions, Q3 2015 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of September 27, 2015
- Vehicle Sales Forecast for September: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 4.2% year-over-year in July, Rolling 12 Months at All Time High
- Black Knight's First Look at August: Mortgage "Delinquency Rate Sees Largest 12-Month Decline in Four Years"
- Final September Consumer Sentiment at 87.2
- Q2 GDP Revised Up to 3.9% Annual Rate
- Friday: Q2 GDP (3rd estimate), Consumer Sentiment
- Yellen: Anticipates Raising Fed Funds Rate this Year
- Comments on August New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Declined Again in September
- New Home Sales increased to 552,000 Annual Rate in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 267,000
- Thursday: Yellen Speech, New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods and More
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in August
- China: Buiter and Krugman Views
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicated slight contraction in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 27% YoY
- "Mortgage Rates Back Into High 3's"
- Using Nomimal GDP to Mislead: A Bogus Reagan Wikipedia Sentence
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Signals Slowdown of Economic Activity"
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Sector Activity Generally Softened" in September
- FHFA House Price Index Up 0.6 Percent in July, Up 5.8 Percent YoY
- Lawler on Lennar: Net Home Orders Up by “Decent” Amount Last Quarter, Houston Weak
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in August
- Lawler on Existing Home Sales
- A Few Random Comments on August Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in August: 5.31 million SAAR
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices "indices post moderate gains" in July, up 12% year-over-year
- Fed's Williams and Bullard on Rate Hikes
- Schedule for Week of September 20, 2015
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Slightly Negative in Q2 2015
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High at end of Q2
- BLS: Twenty-Nine States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in August
- Mortgage Rates Decline after FOMC Annoucement
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey decreased to -6.0 in September
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Rate Hike
- Comments on August Housing Starts
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 208,000 jobs
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 264,000
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.126 Million Annual Rate in August
- Thursday: FOMC Announcement, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims and More
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in August
- August Update: Early Look at Cost-Of-Living Adjustments indicates NO increase in 2016
- NAHB: Builder Confidence at 62 in September, Highest in almost 10 Years
- CPI decreased 0.1% in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI, Homebuilder Survey
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
- WSJ: "For the Fed, Markets May Be Flashing a Wait Sign"
- CoreLogic: "CoreLogic Reports 759,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the Second Quarter of 2015"
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in August
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in August
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg
- The Consensus is No Rate Hike this Week
- Las Vegas: On Pace for Record Visitor Traffic in 2015
- LA area Port Traffic: Record Inbound Traffic in August
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview and Review of Projections
- Goldman Sachs FOMC Preview: December
- Schedule for Week of September 13, 2015
- Sacramento Housing in August: Sales up 16%, Inventory down 15% YoY
- Nomura FOMC Preview: December
- Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015
- Preliminary September Consumer Sentiment decreases to 85.7
- Friday: PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Goldman on Possible Government Shutdown
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.5% year-over-year in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 275,000
- WSJ Articles on the FOMC Meeting next week
- QE Timeline Update
- Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales Increased 11% YoY
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased to 5.8 million in July, New Series High
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up Sharply YoY
- Wednesday: Job Openings
- CBO: Fiscal 2015 Federal Deficit through August more than 10% below Last Year
- Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 14%
- Black Knight July Mortgage Monitor
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in August
- Monday Night Futures
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- August Employment Revisions
- Schedule for Week of September 6, 2015
- Will the Fed raise rates in September?
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- August Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- August Employment Report: 173,000 Jobs, 5.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Goldman Employment Forecast: 190K Jobs
- Preview: Employment Report for August
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 59.0% in August
- Trade Deficit decreased in July to $41.8 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 282,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM non-mfg
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q2
- ADP: Private Employment increased 190,000 in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 25% YoY
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 17.7 million annual rate in August
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in July
- Construction Spending increased 0.7% in July
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 51.1 in August
August 2015
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Auto Sales
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in July, Lowest since August 2008
- Restaurant Performance Index increased in July
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Holds Steady, but Outlooks Deteriorate"
- Chicago PMI decreases slightly in August
- Sunday Night Futures
- Vehicle Sales Forecast for August: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again
- August 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 282 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of August 30, 2015
- Fed's Vice Chair Fischer: “When the case is overwhelming, if you wait that long, then you’ve waited too long.”
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in July, Lowest since October 2008
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts for August: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again
- Final August Consumer Sentiment at 91.9
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 0.3%
- Friday: July Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
- MBA on Housing Demand from 2014 to 2024
- Early Look at 2016 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.5% in July, up 7% year-over-year
- Q2 GDP Revised up to 3.7%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 271,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Penidng Home Sales, Jackson Hole Symposium
- Last Week: Key Measures Show Low Inflation in July
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in July
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller to show "Uptick in Appreciation" year-over-year change in July
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicated expansion in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 18% YoY
- Wednesday: Durable Goods
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
- Comments on July New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 507,000 Annual Rate in July
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.5% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Catching Up: Existing Home Sales in July: 5.59 million SAAR, Highest Pace in Eight Years
- Catching Up: Housing Starts increased to 1.206 Million Annual Rate in July
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.9% in June, 5.1% year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: Index shows "Economic growth picked up in July"
- Black Knight's First Look at July: Foreclosure Inventory at Lowest Level Since 2007
- Sunday Night Futures
- Schedule for Week of August 23, 2015
- On Recession Calls
- 2012: Calling the House Price Bottom
- 2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- 2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear
- Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Minutes
- 2007: Tanta Changed the Blogging World
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd
- Monday: Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Confidence
- December 2006: Tanta joined CR!
- Schedule for Week of August 16, 2015
- CR on Housing in 2005
- Friday: PPI, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment
- CR takes a Vacation!
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
- NY Fed: Household Debt "Flat" in Q2 2015
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q2
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 274,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since 2000
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in July
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, NY Fed Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report
- Sacramento Housing in July: Sales up 12%, Inventory down 11% YoY
- The Shrinking Deficit
- BLS: Jobs Openings decreased to 5.2 million in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications "Flat" in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 20% YoY
- Wednesday: Job Openings
- U.S. Population Distribution by Age, 1900 through 2060
- U.S. Births increased in 2014
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in July
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q2, Down 33% Year-over-year
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in June
- Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales Increased 15% YoY
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of August 9, 2015
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates at 4%
- Merrill: Employment Report and a September Fed Rate Hike
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- July Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- July Employment Report: 215,000 Jobs, 5.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Payroll Employment and Seasonal Factors
- Preview: Employment Report for July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 270,000
- Q2 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales Up 17%, Inventory DOWN 15% Year-over-year
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in June
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 60.3% in July
- Trade Deficit increased in June to $43.8 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 185,000 in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 23% YoY
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM non-Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Large Home Builder Results, Q2/2015
- Goldman: "What's Keeping the Kids at Their Parents' Homes?"
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.5% Year-over-year in June
- Fed Survey: Banks reports stronger demand for Home-purchase loans and CRE Loans
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 17.5 million annual rate in July
- Construction Spending increased 0.1% in June
- ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 52.7 in July
- BEA: Personal Income increased 0.4% in June, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-year
- Monday: Auto Sales, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Personal Income and Outlays
- Hotels: Best Week Ever, On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015
- Schedule for Week of August 2, 2015
- July 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 290 Institutions
July 2015
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since August 2008
- Restaurant Performance Index declined in June
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since November 2008
- Chicago PMI increases, Final July Consumer Sentiment at 93.1
- Friday: Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.3% year-over-year change in June
- Q2 GDP: Investment
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 267,000
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q2
- Thursday: Q2 GDP and Revisions, Unemployment Claims
- Duy on FOMC: "Somewhat more hawkish as the Fed gears up to hike rates later this year"
- FOMC Statement: No Change in Policy, No Clues for September
- How large will the first Fed Funds Rate increase be?
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.8% in June, up 8% year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 18% YoY
- Wednesday: FOMC, Pending Home Sales
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May
- HVS: Q2 2015 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.4% year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts for July: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again, Best July in a Decade
- ATA Trucking Index decreased 0.5% in June
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Slump Moderates"
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.1% in May, 5.1% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- WSJ: More Oil Industry Layoffs Coming
- Schedule for Week of July 26, 2015
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 40 states in June
- Nomura on Q2 GDP and Annual Revision
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decreased to 482,000 Annual Rate in June
- Goldman FOMC Preview
- Merrill on the Annual GDP Revision and Q2 GDP
- Black Knight's First Look at June: Foreclosure Inventory at Lowest Level Since 2007
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Declined Again in July
- Chicago Fed: Index shows "Economic Growth Picked Up Slightly in June"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 255,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- A Few Random Comments on June Existing Home Sales
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in June, "Multi-family housing design showing signs of slowing"
- Existing Home Sales in June: 5.49 million SAAR, Highest Pace in Eight Years
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Unchanged in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 18% YoY
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.7% year-over-year in May, Rolling 12 Months at All Time High
- BLS: Twenty-One States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in June
- WSJ: "Bidding Wars Return to Home Market"
- A comment on Interest Only Mortgage Loans
- CoreLogic: Southern California June Home Sales up 18% Year-over-year
- LA area Port Traffic: Weakness in June
- Sunday Night Futures
- EIA: West Coast Gasoline Prices "likely to remain elevated until later this summer"
- Schedule for Week of July 19, 2015
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Near July Lows
- Comments on June Housing Starts
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in June
- Preliminary July Consumer Sentiment decreases to 93.3
- Housing Starts increased to 1.174 Million Annual Rate in June
- Friday: Housing Starts, CPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in June
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey decreased to 5.7 in July
- NAHB: Builder Confidence at 60 in July, Highest Level Since November 2005
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 281,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey, Yellen
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in May
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded, Respondents "optimistic about future growth"
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.3% in June
- Yellen: "Prospects are favorable for further improvement in the U.S. labor market and the economy more broadly"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 17% YoY
- Wednesday: Yellen, Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Beige Book and more
- Update: The California Budget Surplus
- CoreLogic: "Foreclosure Rate of 1.3 Percent is Back to December 2007 Levels"
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in June
- Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in June
- Tuesday: Retail Sales
- The Shrinking Deficit
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.0% year-over-year change in May
- Greek Deal
- Sunday Night Futures: Uncertainty in Europe
- Greece Update: No Deal ... Yet
- Schedule for Week of July 12, 2015
- Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015
- Sacramento Housing in June: Sales up 22%, Inventory down 10% YoY
- Fed Chair Yellen: Expect to raise the federal funds rate later this year
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.4% year-over-year in May
- Greece: Agreement seems Possible
- Friday: Yellen Speech on the U.S. Economic Outlook
- Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates decrease to 4.04% in Latest Weekly Survey
- FHFA Paper: "The Marginal Effect of First-Time Homebuyer Status on Mortgage Default and Prepayment"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 297,000
- Greece Update
- U.S. Heavy Truck Sales in June: Highest since February 2007
- FOMC Minutes: Global Concerns
- Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales Increased 12.8% YoY
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up Sharply YoY
- Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales Up 20.5%, Inventory DOWN 16% Year-over-year
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in May
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased to 5.4 million in May, Highest on Record
- Trade Deficit increased in May to $41.9 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings
- Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2015
- Black Knight May Mortgage Monitor
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.0% in June
- Sunday Night Futures: Greece says No!
- No!
- Shanghai Cliff Diving
- Greece Sunday: δίλημμα
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of July 5, 2015
- Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 281,000
- Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015, RevPAR up almost 50% from 2009
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.2%
- June Employment Report Comments and Graphs
- June Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs, 5.3% Unemployment Rate
- Thursday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Preview: Employment Report for June
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decreased to 17.1 million annual rate in June
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 to 16.6%
- Construction Spending increased 0.8% in May
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 53.5 in June
- ADP: Private Employment increased 237,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 14% YoY
June 2015
- Wednesday: ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Auto Sales, Construction Spending
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since August 2008
- Restaurant Performance Index indicates expansion in May
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.2% year-over-year in April
- Duy: "Events Continue to Conspire Against the Fed"
- Forecast: Auto Sales above 17 Million SAAR in June
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.0% in April, 4.9% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Contracting
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.9% in May, up 10% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures: Greece and Puerto Rico
- Greece: ECB Freezes Level of Emergency Loans
- June 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 309 Institutions, Q2 2015 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of June 28, 2015
- June NFP: Merrill and Nomura Forecasts
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts for June: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again, Best June in a Decade
- Are Multi-Family Housing Starts near a peak?
- Final June Consumer Sentiment increases to 96.1
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 3.9% year-over-year in April, Rolling 12 Months at All Time High
- Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Declined in June
- Personal Income increased 0.5% in May, Spending increased 0.9%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 271,000
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
- ATA Trucking Index increased 1.1% in May
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in May
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in May
- Q1 GDP Revised Up to -0.2% Annual Rate
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 18% YoY
- Wednesday: GDP
- Sacramento Housing in May: Less than 10% Distressed Sales, Inventory down YoY
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Leading Economic Indicator Heats Up"
- Comments on New Home Sales and Prices
- New Home Sales increased to 546,000 Annual Rate in May
- FHFA: House Prices increased 0.3% in April, Up 5.3% Year-over-year
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods and More
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 35 states in May
- A Few Random Comments on May Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in May: 5.35 million SAAR, Inventory up 1.8% Year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth slightly below average in May"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- Schedule for Week of June 21, 2015
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Near June Lows
- STR on Hotels: "The Best Fundamentals (Maybe in Our Lifetime)"
- BLS: Twenty-Five States had Unemployment Rate Increases in May
- Fed: Q1 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low
- Greece Update
- Looking at Payroll Employment and Unemployment Claims
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in May
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey increased to 15.2 in June
- CPI increased 0.4% in May, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 267,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Report: Socal Home Sales up 5% year-over-year
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Change in Policy, Economy Expands Moderately
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports Up, Exports Down in May
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal More Negative in Q1 2015
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 15% YoY
- Wednesday: FOMC Day
- Duy: FOMC Preview
- Comments on May Housing Starts
- CoreLogic: "CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015"
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May
- 4% Sustained GDP Growth?
- ECRI Admits Incorrect Recession Call
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "conditions worsened slightly" in June
- Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
- Reports on Greek Tragedy: Meeting Fails
- Update: Predicting the Next Recession
- Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015
- Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Homes Sales in May: Big Bounce from “Strangely-Low” April
- FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike
- Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment increases to 94.6
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices declined in April, Up Solidly YoY
- Lawler on NAR: The “Curious Case” of Existing Home Sales in the South in April
- Fed's Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 279,000
- Retail Sales increased 1.2% in May
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Q1 Flow of Funds
- The Shrinking Deficit
- Quarterly Services Survey suggests upward revision to Q1 GDP
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.3% year-over-year in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 15% YoY
- Wednesday: Q1 Quarterly Services Report
- CoreLogic: "Number of Loans in Foreclosure Lowest Since 2007"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales Decreased 2.5% YoY
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased to 5.4 million in April, Highest on Record
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in May
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Tenth Anniversary of Greenspan's "Froth" Testimony
- Labor Force Participation Rate: There are few "Missing 41-Year-Olds"
- Merrill and Goldman Expect GDP to Rebound in Q2
- Black Knight April Mortgage Monitor
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales Up 11.4%, Inventory DOWN 15% Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of June 7, 2015
- CBO: Fiscal 2015 Federal Deficit through May about 10% below Last Year
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015, New Construction Increasing
- May Employment Report Comments and Graphs
- May Employment Report: 280,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Lawler: Characteristics Homes Built in 2014; Construction of “Moderately-Sized” SF Homes Remained Low in 2014.
- Public and Private Employment Data
- NFP: Goldman Sachs, Nomura May Employment Previews
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 276,000
- Mortgage Rates increase to 4.1%
- Preview: Employment Report for May
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded, Respondents "generally optimistic"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.7% in May
- Trade Deficit declined in April to $40.9 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 201,000 in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 14% YoY
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg Index, Beige Book
- Hatzius: September rate hike "sensible in the base case ", "but less than optimal on risk management grounds"
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 17.8 million annual rate in May
- Preliminary May Vehicle Sales at 17.7 million SAAR: Best sales rate since 2005, On pace for Best Year since 2001
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.8% Year-over-year in April
- Financial Times: Greek Discussion Ends, Not "Take it or leave it" Deal
- Greece Update: "Take it or leave it" offer?
- Construction Spending increased 2.2% in April
- ISM Manufacturing index increased to 52.8 in May
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in April, Spending decreased slightly
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
May 2015
- Hotels: Best April Ever
- May 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 324 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of May 31, 2015
- Restaurant Performance Index increased in April
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in April, Lowest since September 2008
- Business Executives are NOT experts in Economics
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 40 states in April
- Final May Consumer Sentiment at 90.7, Chicago PMI declines Sharply
- Q1 GDP Revised Down to -0.7% Annual Rate
- Friday: Ugly GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts for May: Over 17 Million Annual Rate
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in April
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 3.4% in April, up 14% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 282,000
- Thursday: Pending Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.0% year-over-year change in April
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q1
- BLS: Twenty-Three States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in April
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 14% YoY
- Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys for May and the ISM Index
- Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased to 517,000 Annual Rate in April
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.1% year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods and More
- Gasoline Prices: Down a Dollar from last year on Memorial Day
- Hotels: RevPAR up almost 50% since 2009
- Report: Greece will not make June IMF Payment
- Schedule for Week of May 24, 2015
- ATA Trucking Index decreased 3% in April
- Yellen: Expect Rate Hike in 2015, Several Years before Fed Funds Rate "back to normal" level
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in April
- BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in April, Core CPI increased 0.3%
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased slightly in April
- Friday: CPI, Yellen
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
- Lawler: Existing Home Sales Dipped in April; Sales in South Seem Low
- A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in April: 5.04 million SAAR, Inventory down 0.9% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 274,000, Lowest 4-Week average in 15 years
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims and More
- CoreLogic: Southern California April Home Sales up 8.5% Year-over-year
- FOMC Minutes: June Rate Hike Unlikely
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index declined in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minuites, Architecture Billings Index
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- Sacramento Housing in April: Total Sales up 9% Year-over-year
- Comments on April Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increased to 1.135 Million Annual Rate in April, Highest since 2007
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- LA area Port Traffic Decreased in April
- Apartments: Supply and Demand
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 54 in May
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman's Hatzius: "The Employment Gap Is Much Bigger than the FOMC's Current Estimate"
- An update on oil prices
- Schedule for Week of May 17, 2015
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
- Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
- Preliminary May Consumer Sentiment declines to 88.6
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.3% in April
- Friday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg, Consumer Sentiment
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims as a Percent of Labor Force
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in March
- Research: "How Low Can House Prices Go?"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 264,000, Lowest 4-Week average in 15 years
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Las Vegas: Record Visitor Traffic in 2014, Same pace in 2015
- Retail Sales unchanged in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates at 2015 Highs, Average Lender at 4%
- NY Fed: Household Debt increased slightly in Q1 2015
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.0 million in March, Up 19% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in April
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Q1 Household Debt and Credit Report
- Research: Natural Rate of Unemployment under 5% and Falling
- Demographics, Unemployment Rate and Inflation
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 4.6% year-over-year in March
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy
- Lawler: Analyzing/Projecting Household Formations: It’s Not Just “Demographics”
- Schedule for Week of May 10, 2015
- Bank Failure Friday Returns: 5th Failure in 2015
- Lawler: More Builder Results (updated table)
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q1, Down 30% Year-over-year
- Employment Report Comments and Graphs
- April Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales Up 9.3%, Inventory DOWN 13% Year-over-year
- Goldman Sachs April Employment Preview
- Part II: Demographics are Now Improving, Projections
- Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Increased 5.1% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 265,000, Lowest 4-Week average in 15 years
- Demographics are Now Improving
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q1, Lowest since Q2 2007
- Preview: Employment Report for April
- ADP: Private Employment increased 169,000 in April
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications increase, Refinance Applications in Latest Weekly Survey
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Near 2015 Highs, Several major Lenders at 4%
- Final Update: Recovery Measures
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.9% Year-over-year in March
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.8% in April
- Trade Deficit increased in March to $51.4 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Manufacturing Index
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Year-over-year
- Fed Survey: Banks ease Standards for Residential Mortgages, CRE Loans
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves Year-over-year for the 55+ Housing Market in Q1
- Black Knight March Mortgage Monitor: "Negative Equity Population Shrinks to Just Over 4 Million"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels at Record Occupancy Pace in 2015
- Lawler on Housing Vacancy Survey: More “Stunning” Results, But Tough to Interpret
- Schedule for Week of May 3, 2015
- Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in March
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales declined to 16.5 million annual rate in April
- Construction Spending decreased 0.6% in March
- ISM Manufacturing index unchanged at 51.5 in April
- Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.2% year-over-year change in March
- Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Auto Sales, Construction Spending
April 2015
- Q1 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Lawler: More Builder Results (updated table)
- Earlier from the BEA: Personal Income increased slightly in March, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-year
- Employment Cost Index increases 0.7% in Q1, Up 2.6% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 262,000, Lowest since April 2000
- Brief comments on the FOMC Statement and ECI
- FOMC Statement: Slowdown "in part reflecting transitory factors"
- Q1 GDP: Investment
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.1% in March, up 11% year-over-year
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 0.2% Annualized Rate in Q1
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Apps up 21% YoY
- Wednesday: GDP, FOMC
- A Comment on House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
- HVS: Q1 2015 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Sector Activity Remained Soft"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.2% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March
- Merrill Lynch: FOMC Preview
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Best April in "13 Years"
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Again
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.7% in February, 4.6% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- ATA Trucking Index increased in March
- Schedule for Week of April 26, 2015
- April 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 342 Institutions
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.8% year-over-year in February, Rolling 12 Months at All Time High
- Nomura Forecast: Q1 GDP at 1.0%
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in March
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in March, First time below 5% since August 2007
- Merrill Lynch forecasting 1.5% GDP in Q1
- Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates decrease to 3.65% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Lawler: More Builder Results
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decline to 481,000 Annual Rate in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 295,000
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in March
- Lawler: D.R. Horton: Net Home Orders Up, Prices “Flattish;” Says If Prices are Low Enough, There is “Demand” from First-Time Buyers
- A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in March: 5.19 million SAAR, Inventory up 2.0% Year-over-year
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in March, Multi-Family Negative
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Apps up 16% YoY
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Leading Economic Indicator Rises for Fourth Consecutive Month"
- Lawler: NVR: Home Orders Jump, Prices “Stable” in Latest Quarter
- BLS: Twenty-Three States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in March
- Goldman on Inflation: Pass-Through Disinflation: Not Over Yet
- CoreLogic (formerly DataQuick data): SoCal sales up 5.0% Year-over-year
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slide Sideways Again
- LA area Port Traffic Increased Sharply in March following resolution of Labor Issues
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth slowed in March"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Schedule for Week of April 19, 2015
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in February
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in March
- Goldman Sachs: "An Update on Student Loans: A Bigger Headwind but Still Not a Deal Breaker"
- Lawler: Texas Employment Declines (Housing Impact)
- Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment increases to 95.9
- BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in March, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in March
- NMHC: Apartment Market Conditions Tighter in April Survey
- Comments on March Housing Starts
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey increased to 7.5 in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 294,000
- Housing Starts at 926 thousand Annual Rate in March
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded mostly at Modest to Moderate pace
- Sacramento Housing in March: Total Sales up 11% Year-over-year
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 56 in April
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.6% in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in March
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March; Look for a Big Jump
- CoreLogic: "Foreclosure inventory declined by 27.3 percent" Year-over-year
- EIA Projects "U.S. energy imports and exports come into balance, First time since the 1950s"
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in March
- Retail Sales increased 0.9% in March
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, PPI, Small Business Index
- Lehner: "Economic Drags and the Outlook"
- Q1 Report on Commercial Real Estate
- Update on Year 4: It Never Rains in California
- Sunday Night Futures
- An update on oil prices
- Schedule for Week of April 12, 2015
- LA Times: Office Vacancy Rate Declines
- Lawler: Very Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March, "sizable monthly gain"
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 4.3% year-over-year in February
- BofA: "Farewell winter blues"
- Hotels near Record Occupancy Pace
- Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates decrease to 3.66% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Lawler: Good Start to Spring home-selling Season
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 281,000, 4-Week Average Lowest Since 2000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Goldman: "The Effect of Slowing Energy Sector Activity on Non-Energy Payrolls"
- FOMC Minutes: Different Views on Timing
- Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales Increased 8.5% YoY
- MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications Increased, Highest level since July 2013
- Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales Up 17.5%, Inventory DOWN 12% Year-over-year
- Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2015
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Negative in Q4 2014
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.1 million in February, Up 23% Year-over-year
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.6% Year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Update: U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- Zillow: February Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to be about the same as in January
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.5% in March
- Black Knight February Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Rate still "175 percent above pre-crisis norms"
- Monday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of April 5, 2015
- Update: Private Job Creation during Presidential Terms
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate declined in Q1
- Employment Report Comments and Graphs
- March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Preview for March Employment Report
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate decreased in Q1 to 4.1%
- Trade Deficit decreased in February to $35.4 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 268,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.05 million annual rate in March
- Construction Spending decreased 0.1% in February
- ISM Manufacturing index declined to 51.5 in March
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q1 to 16.6%
- ADP: Private Employment increased 189,000 in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Applications Up 8% YoY
March 2015
- Wednesday: Auto Sales, ADP Employment, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending and more
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since September 2008
- Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in February
- A Comment on House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.5% year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI
- Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 3.1% in February, up 12% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in February, Spending increased 0.1%
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Possible Upside Surprise for Pending Home Sales Index
- Merrill and Nomura Forecasts for March Employment Report
- Schedule for Week of March 29, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list decline to 349 Institutions in March, Q1 2015 Transition Matrix
- Hotels: On Pace for Best Year on Record
- Yellen: Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives
- BLS: Twenty-Six States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in February
- Final March Consumer Sentiment at 93.0
- Q4 GDP unrevised at 2.2% Annual Rate
- Friday: Yellen, GDP, Consumer Sentiment
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates increased Today
- Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates decrease to 3.69% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Declined in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 282,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Kansas City Mfg Survey
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Best March since 2005
- New Home Prices: More homes priced in the $200K to $300K range
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 4.9% year-over-year in January, Rolling 12 Months at All Time High
- ATA Trucking Index declined in February
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in February
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in February
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 539,000 Annual Rate in February
- BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in February, Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, CPI, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Net Home Orders for Three Large Builders in Latest Quarter
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in January
- A Few Comments on February Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in February: 4.88 million SAAR, Inventory down slightly Year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth slightly below average in February"
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in February, Lowest since August 2007
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Fed: Q4 Household Debt Service Ratio near Record Low
- Schedule for Week of March 22, 2015
- Goldman: "The Path to Exit"
- 30 Year Mortgage Rates decline to March Lows
- Zillow: Negative Equity Rate unchanged in Q4 2014
- Campbell Survey: "Strong spring home buying season"
- DataQuick: California Bay Area February Home Sales Decline
- Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates decrease to 3.78% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Lawler on Lennar: Orders Up Despite Weather; Margins Down a Bit on Diminished Pricing Power; and Confusion on Houston
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in February
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 5.0 in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 291,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No "Patient", "Growth has moderated"
- LA area Port Traffic Declined Sharply in February due to Labor Issues
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases slightly in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Fed Day!
- DataQuick: Southern California February Home Sales down 3% Year-over-year
- Comments on February Housing Starts
- BLS: Twenty-four States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in January
- CoreLogic: "1.2 Million US Borrowers Regained Equity in 2014, 5.4 Million Properties Remain in Negative Equity"
- Housing Starts decreased sharply to 897 thousand Annual Rate in February
- Sacramento Housing in February: Total Sales up 12% Year-over-year
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- WTI Crude Oil Falls Close to $43 per Barrel
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 53 in March
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.1% in February
- Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Confidence
- FOMC Preview: Remove "Patient"
- Schedule for Week of March 15, 2015
- Year 4: It Never Rains in California
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in January
- Preliminary March Consumer Sentiment decreases to 91.2
- Friday: PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Hotels: Solid Start for 2015
- Fed's Q4 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 289,000
- Retail Sales decreased 0.6% in February
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Flow of Funds, Unemployment Claims
- Fed Fails Deutsche Bank and Santander Capital Plans, BofA required to Submit New Plan by Q3
- Quarterly Services Survey suggests upward revision to Q4 GDP to 2.5%
- Real Estate Data Resource for Local Area Sales and Inventory
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Q4 Quarterly Services Report, Banks Comprehensive Capital Analysis
- Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales Up 9%, Inventory DOWN 8% Year-over-year
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 4.3% year-over-year in January
- Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales Decline 2.6%, Non-contingent Inventory up 16% YoY
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.0 million in January, Up 28% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Increased slightly in February
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey
- Why the Prime Labor Force Participation Rate has Declined
- CBO Projection: Budget Deficit to be lower than previous forecast
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Starts increase in January
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Schedule for Week of March 8, 2015
- Duy: "Patient" is History
- Update: Best Private Sector Job Creation "Ever"?
- Trade Deficit decreased in January to $41.8 Billion
- Employment Report Comments and Graphs
- February Employment Report: 295,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Trade Deficit
- Hints of real Wage Increases
- Goldman February Payrolls Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 320,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Stress Test Results
- Preview for February Employment Report
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded "across most regions", Oil "declined"
- Yellen in June 2009: Sluggish Recovery, Low inflation for "few years"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.9% in February
- ADP: Private Employment increased 212,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Little Changed in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Manufacturing, Beige Book
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.2 million annual rate in February
- The Long and Short Views
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.7% Year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: February Auto Sales
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in January, Lowest since September 2008
- Zillow: January Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to be about the same as in December
- Construction Spending decreased 1.1% in January
- ISM Manufacturing index declined to 52.9 in February
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in January, Spending decreased 0.2%
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- Restaurant Performance Index shows solid Expansion in January
February 2015
- Schedule for Week of March 1, 2015
- February 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 357 Institutions
- Bank Failure #4 in 2015: Doral Bank, San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Lawler on Pending Home Sales: NAR “Fixes’ Bad Data for West Region
- Fed's Fischer: "Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet"
- Catching Up: Final February Consumer Sentiment at 95.4, Chicago PMI declines Sharply
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.7% in January, up 8.4% year-over-year
- Q4 GDP Revised Down to 2.2% Annual Rate
- Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in January
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Best February since 2002
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in January
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Expanded "Slightly" in February, Weaker Energy Sector
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 313,000
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q4, Lowest since 2007
- Comments on New Home Sales
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in January
- New Home Sales at 481,000 Annual Rate in January, Highest January since 2008
- MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications Increase, Refinance Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Yellen
- Lawler on Toll Brothers and Other Builders: Maybe Points to Strong New Home Sales in January
- FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q4
- A Comment on House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December
- Yellen: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.6% year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: Yellen Testimony, Case-Shiller House Prices
- A Few Comments on January Existing Home Sales
- Black Knight: House Price Index down slightly in December, Up 4.5% year-over-year
- Existing Home Sales in January: 4.82 million SAAR, Inventory down slightly Year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth picked up slightly in January"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Long Beach Port Traffic Declined Sharply in January
- Schedule for Week of February 22, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 378 Institutions
- West Coast Port Deal Reached
- A Comment on Greece
- Lawler: Homebuilder Summary Table
- Greece: Tentative Deal, 4 Month Extension, Possible 2 PM ET Press Conference
- Lawler: Regional Home Price Declines Used to be Quite Common; Just Not All at the Same Time
- Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 25% Year-over-year
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in January
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 5.2 in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 283,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales Unchanged, Inventory DOWN 5% Year-over-year
- Sacramento Housing in December: Total Sales down 5% Year-over-year
- FOMC Minutes: "Many participants ... inclined toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index "softens" in January
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.2% in January
- Housing Starts decreased to 1.065 Million Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, PPI, FOMC Minutes
- DataQuick: Southern California January Home Sales down 6% Year-over-year
- NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q4 2014
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 55 in February
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "business activity continued to expand at a modest pace" in February
- Tuesday: Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Confidence
- Ships, Ships, Everywhere Ships
- Report: "Eurozone's Greek talks collapse early"
- Year 4: It Never Rains in California
- March 1st Deadline for Greece Deal
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- Schedule for Week of February 15, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 386 Institutions
- Bank Failure #3 in 2015: Capitol City Bank & Trust Company, Atlanta, Georgia
- By Request: Repeat U.S. Population by Age and Distribution, 1900 through 2060
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending
- Preliminary February Consumer Sentiment decreases to 93.6
- Report: Foreclosures Increase in January, "Clearing the deck"
- Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates increase to 3.69% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Hotels: Solid Start to 2015
- Retail Sales decreased 0.8% in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 304,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
- CNBC: EU and Greece Reach "Agreement in Principle"
- EIA: Record Oil Inventories, Gasoline Prices expected to average $2.33/gal in 2015
- Opinion: Did Germany Fulfill their Promises? Did Austerity in Greece Deliver?
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.0% year-over-year in December
- Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Decline, Non-contingent Inventory up 13% YoY
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.5% year-over-year in January
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.0 million in December, Up 28% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in January
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism
- West Coast Port Slowdown Ongoing
- Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Sunday Night Futures
- Best Private Sector Job Creation "Ever"?
- Schedule for Week of February 8, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 387 Institutions
- Duy on the Fed and Jobs Report
- Lawler: Updated Estimates on the Size of the SF Rental Market
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Employment Report Comments and Graphs
- January Employment Report: 257,000 Jobs, 5.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Duy: Fed Updates
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves Year-over-year for the 55+ Housing Market in Q4
- Goldman Sachs Employment Forecast: 210,000 jobs added, Unemployment Rate decline to 5.5%
- Trade Deficit increases in December to $46.6 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 278,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- Greece and the ECB
- Preview for January Employment Report: Taking the Under
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.7% in January
- ADP: Private Employment increased 213,000 in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications increase, FHA Refinance Applications up 76%
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Manufacturing
- Lawler: Historical New Housing Put in Place (Completions/Placements)
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.6 million annual rate in January
- A few comments on Inflation, the Unemployment Rate and Demographics
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.0% Year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in December, Lowest since October 2008
- Q4 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Construction Spending increased 0.4% in December
- ISM Manufacturing index declined to 53.5 in January
- BEA: Personal Income increased 0.3% in December, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-year
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
January 2015
- Schedule for Week of February 1, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 388 Institutions
- Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in December
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in December
- Comment on Q4 GDP and Investment: R-E-L-A-X
- Final January Consumer Sentiment at 98.1
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4
- Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in December
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in December
- HVS: Q4 2014 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 3.7% in December, up 6.1% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 265,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- EIA: Record Oil Inventories, Imports at 7.4 million barrels per day
- FOMC Statement: "Economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace", "Patient" on Policy
- Duy: "While We Wait For Yet Another FOMC Statement..."
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement
- BLS: Forty-two States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in December
- House Prices: Better Seasonal Adjustment; Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 481,000 Annual Rate in December, Highest December since 2007
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods and More
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in December
- Lawler: D.R. Horton reports Home Sales Soared Last Quarter
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: "Best January in 8 Years"
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Stalls and Outlook Worsens
- Black Knight: House Price Index up slightly in November, Up 4.5% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures: All Greek to me!
- GDP: Annual and Q4-over-Q4
- Schedule for Week of January 25, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 390 Institutions
- Bank Failure #2 in 2015: Highland Community Bank, Chicago, Illinois
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: 3%+
- A Few Comments on December Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in December: 5.04 million SAAR, Inventory down slightly Year-over-year
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in December
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Draghi: "There must be a statute of limitations for those who say there will be inflation"
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Expanded at a Slower Pace" in January, Weaker Energy Sector
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 307,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- LA area Port Traffic in December
- Comments on December Housing Starts
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in December
- Housing Starts increased to 1.089 Million Annual Rate in December
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.1% year-over-year in November, Nearing All Time High
- ATA Trucking Index unchanged in December, Up Solidly Year-over-year
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 57 in January
- Tuesday: Homebuilder Confidence
- Las Vegas: On Pace for Record Visitor Traffic in 2014, Convention Attendance Slowly Returning
- Year 4: It Never Rains in California
- Duy: "Will The Fed Take a Dovish Turn Next Week?"
- Update: Predicting the Next Recession
- Lawler on Builder Pricing and Incentives
- Schedule for Week of January 18, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 392 Institutions
- 1st Bank Failure of 2015: First National Bank of Crestview, Crestview, Florida
- Lawler: “Surprise” Warnings on Margins/Effective Prices Whacks Home Builder Stocks
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in December
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in December
- Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment increases to 98.2
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.1% in December
- BLS: CPI decreased 0.4% in December, Core CPI Unchanged
- Friday: CPI, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment
- NMHC: Apartment Market Conditions Slightly Tighter in January Survey
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
- DataQuick: California Bay Area "Home buying picked up steam" in December
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in November
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 6.3 in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 316,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys
- DataQuick: Southern California December Home Sales up 4% Year-over-year
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded at "modest" or "moderate" Pace
- Sacramento Housing in December: Total Sales up 1.5% Year-over-year, First YoY increase since Oct 2012
- CoreLogic: "Foreclosure inventory down 35.5 percent nationally from a year ago"
- Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in December
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase by 49 Percent"
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Beige Book
- Fed: Q3 Household Debt Service Ratio near Record Low
- Is Oil "Cheap"?
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.0 million in November, Up 21% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Increased in December, Highest since 2006
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Index
- Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales UP 9%, Inventory DOWN 2% Year-over-year
- Update: The recovery in U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.2% year-over-year in November
- Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Delinquencies "Spike" in November
- Sunday Night Futures
- WSJ: Banks Stress Test for Grexit
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of January 11, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 399 Institutions
- Demographics, Unemployment Rate and Inflation
- Update on FHA Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) Reduction
- Employment Report Comments: First come the jobs, then comes the real wage growth
- December Employment Report: 252,000 Jobs, 5.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs
- Clarification: Current FHA-insured borrowers WILL need to Refinance to obtain lower MIP
- FHA Insured Loans: HUD Corrects wording on lower Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP)
- Trulia: "What Falling Oil Prices Mean for Home Prices"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Lowest Sales in Years, Non-contingent Inventory up 18% YoY
- CoreLogic: "273,000 Residential Properties Regained Equity in Q3 2014"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 294,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Preview: Employment Report for December
- FOMC Minutes: "Participants would want to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back toward 2 percent over time"
- Reis: Strip Mall Vacancy Rate declined in Q4, Regional Mall Vacancy Rate Increased
- Trade Deficit declines in November to $39.0 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 241,000 in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes
- 30 Year Mortgage Rates fall to 3.68%, Down almost 100bps year-over-year
- Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.2% in December
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.5% Year-over-year in November
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 4.2%
- Tuesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.8 million annual rate in December
- WTI Crude Oil Falls Close to $50 per Barrel
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 16.7%
- Monday: Vehicle Sales
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of January 4, 2015
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 400 Institutions
- Rosenberg and the "Lunatic Fringe"
- Hotels: Strong Finish to 2014, Best Year since 2000
- Construction Spending decreased 0.3% in November
- ISM Manufacturing index declined to 55.5 in December
- Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in November
- Question #1 for 2015: How much will the economy grow in 2015?