2014
1,617 posts
2014 1,617
December 2014
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in November, Lowest since October 2008
- Question #2 for 2015: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2015?
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.8% in November, up 4.1% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 298,000
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in November
- Question #3 for 2015: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2015?
- Question #4 for 2015: Will too much inflation be a concern in 2015?
- Question #5 for 2015: Will the Fed raise rates in 2015? If so, when?
- House Prices: Better Seasonal Adjustment; Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.6% year-over-year in October
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in November
- Question #6 for 2015: Will real wages increase in 2015?
- Oil Prices Fall, Rig Count Drops, Oil Companies Employment to decline
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing "Picks up Pace" in December
- Black Knight: House Price Index up slightly in October, Up 4.5% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Question #7 for 2015: What about oil prices in 2015?
- CNBC and the "Job Surge of 2015" and Demographics
- Question #8 for 2015: How much will Residential Investment increase?
- Schedule for Week of December 28th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 401 Institutions, Q4 2014 Transition Matrix
- Question #9 for 2015: What will happen with house prices in 2015?
- Question #10 for 2015: How much will housing inventory increase in 2015?
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in November
- Happy Holidays!
- "Mortgage Rates Match December Highs"
- Ten Economic Questions for 2015
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: "Strongest December in 10 Years", 17 Million in 2015
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 280,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Unemployment Claims
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2014
- Comments on New Home Sales
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in November, Spending increased 0.6%
- New Home Sales at 438,000 Annual Rate in November
- Q3 GDP Revised Up to 5.0%
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, GDP, and much more
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in November
- A Few Comments on November Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in November: 4.93 million SAAR, Inventory up 2.0% Year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: Index shows "Economic Growth Accelerated" in November
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Katie Couric and the Net Petroleum Exporter Myth
- Existing Home Sales: A Likely "Miss"
- Schedule for Week of December 21st
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 401 Institutions
- ATA Trucking Index increased 3.5% in November
- Lawler Update: Read on November Existing Home Sales, Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.6% year-over-year in October
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Expanded at a Moderate Pace" in December
- BLS: Forty-one States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in November
- Freddie Mac: "Mortgage Rates Find New Lows for 2014"
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in October
- LA area Port Traffic in November
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 24.5 in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 289,000
- Comments on Fed Chair Yellen's Press Conference
- Zillow: Negative Equity declines further in Q3 2014, "Down by Almost Half Since 2012 Peak"
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: "Considerable Time" replaced with "patient", "consistent with previous statement"
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in November
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows slower expansion in November
- BLS: CPI decreased 0.3% in November, Core CPI increased 0.1%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC, CPI
- "Mortgage Rates Back to Pre-Taper-Tantrum Levels"
- DataQuick: "Bay Area Home Sales Slowest in Six Years" in November
- DataQuick: "Southern California November Home Sales Fall Sharply"
- Comments on November Housing Starts
- Housing Starts decrease to 1.028 Million Annual Rate in November
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in November
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November (look for big dip)
- A Comment on Oil Prices
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 57 in December
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 1.3% in November
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "activity declined for New York manufacturers" in December
- Monday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
- FOMC Preview: Focus on Press Conference, Probably Remove "Considerable Time", Shorter Statement
- Schedule for Week of December 14th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 406 Institutions
- Goldman: FOMC Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Finishing 2014 Strong
- Merrill and Nomura: FOMC Preview
- Preliminary December Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.8
- Sacramento Housing in November: Total Sales down 6% Year-over-year, Active Inventory increased 37%
- Would you loan money to this guy?
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Negative in Q3 2014
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth "dipped slightly" in Q3
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 294,000
- Retail Sales increased 0.7% in November
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Q3 Flow of Funds
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in November
- Quarterly Services Survey suggests upward revision to Q3 GDP close to 4.4%
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Q3 Quarterly Services Report
- Las Vegas Real Estate in November: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 20%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.4% year-over-year in November
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 4.8 million in October, Up 21% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Increases in November
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism
- FNC: More Long Term Home Owners selling in 2014
- Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales down 4%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up only 3%
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Sunday Night Futures
- Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate: Mostly Demographics and Long Term Trends
- Schedule for Week of December 7th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 407 Institutions
- The Future's so Bright ...
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Trade Deficit mostly unchanged in October at $43.4 Billion
- Employment Report Comments: Best Year for Employment since the '90s
- November Employment Report: 321,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment, Trade Deficit
- Mortgage Rates decline to 3.89%, No Significant Increase in Refinance Activity Expected
- Black Knight October Mortgage Monitor: "8% of mortgages, 4 million borrowers in negative equity"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 297,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Preview: Employment Report for November
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity "continued to expand"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.3% in November
- ADP: Private Employment increased 208,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ISM Non-Mfg Index, ADP Employment, Beige Book
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.1 million annual rate in November
- Update: More 2015 Housing Forecasts
- Construction Spending increased 1.1% in October
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.1% Year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Auto Sales, Construction Spending
- Restaurant Performance Index increased in October
- Housing: Demographics for Renting and Buying
- ISM Manufacturing index at 58.7 in November
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing
November 2014
- WSJ: "Mortgage Lenders Set to Relax Standards"
- Schedule for Week of November 30th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 408 Institutions
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Possible Headline for Next Friday: "Best Year for Employment since the '90s"
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Finishing 2014 Strong, Best Year since 2000
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Strongest November since 2001"
- WTI Crude Oil Falls Below $70
- Word of the Year
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since October 2008
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in October
- Comments on October New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 458,000 Annual Rate in October
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in October, Spending increased 0.2%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 313,000
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income, Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home sales
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since December 2008
- House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
- NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q3 2014, "Deleveraging process has ended"
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in September
- Q3 GDP Revised Up to 3.9% Annual Rate
- Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Household Debt and Credit Report and much more
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates below 4%, Lowest in 1-Month
- Black Knight: House Price Index down slightly in September, Up 4.6% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing "Posts Slower Growth" in November
- Chicago Fed: Index shows "economic activity was near its historical trend" in October
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Business Cycles and Markets
- Update: More 2015 Housing Forecasts
- Schedule for Week of November 23rd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 411 Institutions
- Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Could Reach 17 Million" SAAR in November
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.3% year-over-year in September
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Expanded Further" in November
- BLS: Thirty-four States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in October
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies decreased in October, Lowest in Seven Years
- Friday: State Employment, October Mortgage Delinquencies
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- A Few Comments on October Existing Home Sales
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in October
- Existing Home Sales in October: 5.26 million SAAR, Inventory up 5.2% Year-over-year
- CPI unchanged in October; Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 291,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Inflation, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Updated Read on Existing Home Sales, Table of Distressed Sales in October
- Comments on October Housing Starts
- FOMC Minutes: "a few expressed concern that inflation might persist below the Committee's objective for quite some time"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows slower expansion in October
- Housing Starts decrease to 1.009 Million Annual Rate in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes
- Builder Confidence and Housing Starts
- ATA Trucking Index increased 0.5% in October
- LA area Port Traffic in October: Strong Imports, Soft Exports
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 58 in November
- Tuesday: Homebuilder survey, PPI
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in September
- WSJ: Audit shows FHA Back in Black
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.1% in October
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "pace of growth somewhat faster than last month’s" in November
- Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 415 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of November 16th
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in October
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
- MBA National Delinquency Survey: Judicial vs. Non-Judicial Foreclosure States in Q3 2014
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q3, Lowest since 2007
- Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment increases to 89.4
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October
- Friday: Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency Survey
- Freddie Mac: "Fixed Mortgage Rates Hovering Near 2014 Lows"
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: Home Sales increased slightly in October, Few Distressed Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Finishing 2014 Strong
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 4.7 million in September, Up 20% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 290,000
- Thursday: Job Openings, Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Beazer Results and Q3 Builder Summary Table
- DataQuick: October Southern California Home Sales Dip To Three-Year Low
- EIA Forecast: Gasoline Prices expected to average $2.94/gal in 2015
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Increases in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Small Business Optimism
- Lawler on D.R. Horton: Net Orders Jump as Increased Incentives Continued; Expects Big Increase in Unit Sales, Flat Home Prices Next Year
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Housing Update: It Appears Inventory build is Slowing in Previous Distressed Markets
- Sacramento Housing in October: Total Sales down 1% Year-over-year, Equity Sales up 5%, Active Inventory increased 29%
- Lawler on Toll Brothers: Net Orders Up, Orders Per Community Down Last Quarter
- Update: The California Budget Surplus
- Another Recession Caller
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.3% year-over-year in September
- Sunday Night Futures
- Employment: Party Like It's 1999!
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 419 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of November 9th
- Update: 2015 Housing Forecasts
- Bank Failure #17 in 2014: El Paseo Bank, Palm Desert, California
- Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 2%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up only 6%
- Commentary: Politics and Jobs
- Comments: Solid Employment Report, Seasonal Retail Hiring at Record Level
- October Employment Report: 214,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Lawler: Fannie, Freddie in Q3
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3
- Las Vegas Real Estate in October: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 26%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 6.4% year-over-year in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 278,000, 4-Week Average lowest since April 2000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Preview: Employment Report for October
- Bankruptcy Filings declined 13% in Fiscal 2014, Lowest Filings in Seven Years
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 57.1% in October
- ADP: Private Employment increased 230,000 in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ISM Non-Mfg Index, ADP Employment
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Year-over-year
- Lawler on NAR 2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.6% Year-over-year in September
- Trade Deficit increased in September to $43.0 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit
- Fed Survey: Banks "eased standards for construction and land development loans"
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales unchanged at 16.35 million annual rate in October
- Construction Spending decreased 0.4% in September
- ISM Manufacturing index increases to 59.0 in October
- Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for September
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Auto Sales, Construction Spending
- Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008
- Schedule for Week of November 2nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 422 Institutions
- Friday Night: Kudlow makes me laugh ... again!
October 2014
- Q3 GDP: Investment Contributions
- Q3 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Preliminary: 2015 Housing Forecasts
- Final October Consumer Sentiment at 86.9, Chicago PMI increases to 66.2
- BEA: Personal Income increased 0.2% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.5% year-over-year
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Hotels: Occupancy up 5.4%, RevPAR up 10.8% Year-over-Year
- Lawler: MDC Results and Homebuilder Summary Table
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 287,000, 4-Week Average lowest since May 2000
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3
- Thursday: Q3 GDP, Unemployment Claims
- Lawler on Housing Vacancy Survey for Q3: Reported Household Growth Remained Muted; “True” Homeownership Rate Probably Lowest Since the 1960’s
- FOMC Statement: QE3 Ends, "Considerable Time" before rate increase
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since 2008
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement
- NMHC Survey: Apartment Market Conditions Slightly Tighter in Q3 2014
- House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August
- HVS: Q3 2014 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, and much more
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in October
- ATA Trucking Index Unchanged in September
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.3% in September, up 1.0% year-over-year
- Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in August, Up 4.9% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC: End of QE3, Shorter Statement
- Schedule for Week of October 26th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 423 Institutions
- Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview
- Merrill Lynch: FOMC Preview
- Bank Failure #16 in 2014: National Republic Bank of Chicago
- Lawler on New Home Sales: Silly-Looking August Guess Revised Down Sharply in the West – As Expected
- Comments on September New Home Sales
- New Home Sales increased slightly to 467,000 Annual Rate in September
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies decreased in September
- Friday: New Home Sales
- FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios for 2015 Stress Testing
- A Few Comments on QE
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 43 states in September
- FHFA: House Prices increased 0.5% in August, Up 4.8% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 283,000, 4-Week Average lowest since May 2000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, FHFA House Price Index
- QE Timeline Update
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in September
- Cost of Living Adjustment: 1.7%, Contribution Base for 2015: $118,500
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in September, "Robust Construction Conditions Ahead"
- BLS: CPI increases 0.1% in September, Core CPI 0.1%, Cost-Of-Living Adjustment 1.7%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Consumer Price Index
- DataQuick: California Foreclosure Starts Lowest Since 2005
- LA area Port Traffic in September: Imports Highest since 2006, Exports Soft
- BLS: Thirty-one States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in September
- A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in September: 5.17 million SAAR, Inventory up 6.0% Year-over-year
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed and All-Cash Share for September
- FHFA Director Watt: Reps and Warrants to be Clarified in Coming Weeks, "sensible and responsible guidelines" for Lower Downpayments
- Is Mortgage Credit too Tight?
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.4% year-over-year in August
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hamilton: "How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?"
- Schedule for Week of October 19th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 426 Institutions
- Bank Failure Friday: NBRS Financial, Rising Sun, Maryland,15th Failure of 2014
- WSJ: "Fannie, Freddie Near Deal That Promises to Boost Mortgage Lending"
- A few comments on September Housing Starts
- Preliminary October Consumer Sentiment increases to 86.4
- Housing Starts increase to 1.017 Million Annual Rate in September
- Friday: Housing Starts, Yellen
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in August
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 20.7 in October
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 54 in October
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 1.0% in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 264,000, 4-Week Average lowest since 2000
- Thursday: Industrial Production, Unemployment Claims, Homebuilder Survey, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded "modest to moderate" pace
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "business activity grew modestly" in October
- Retail Sales decreased 0.3% in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, PPI, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Beige Book and More
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates below 4%, Lowest since June 2013
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September, Table of Distressed and All-Cash Share
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: Strongest September for Home Sales in Five Years, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying declines
- Mortgage Rates: Close to 4%, No Significant Increase in Refinance Activity Expected
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Declines in September
- DataQuick on SoCal: September Home Sales up 1% Year-over-year, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying Declines Further
- From 5 Years Ago: The History of the World wouldn't be complete without ...
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- "Disinflation, Here We Come"
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 429 Institutions
- Sunday Night Futures
- Goldman on 2015: "Potential Renewed Uncertainty around Fiscal Deadlines"
- Fed Vice Chairman Fischer: "The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy"
- Schedule for Week of October 12th
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in September
- Moody's Zandi: "Have We Underestimated U.S. Wage Growth?"
- Sacramento Housing in September: Total Sales down 1% Year-over-year, Equity Sales up 5%, Active Inventory increased 51%
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 7.5% year-over-year in August
- Lawler: Comments on Pending Home Sales and All Cash Purchases
- Hotels: Occupancy up 3.7%, RevPAR up 6.6% Year-over-Year
- Housing: Appears Inventory build is Slowing in Previous Distressed Markets
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 6.4% year-over-year in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 287,000, 4-Week Average lowest since 2006
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Las Vegas Real Estate in September: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 29%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY
- FOMC Minutes: "Costs of downside shocks to the economy would be larger than those of upside shocks"
- CBO Estimate: Budget Deficit declines to 2.8% of GDP
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales down 1%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 13%
- Fed: Q2 Household Debt Service Ratio near Record Low
- Goldman: The Housing Recovery Resumes
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 4.8 million in August, Up 23% Year-over-year
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.4% Year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Fun: News IQ Quiz
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index
- Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for August
- Monday: Fed Labor Market Conditions Index
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of October 5th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 430 Institutions, Q3 2014 Transition Matrix
- Goldman: "Fed likely still holds $1 trillion MBS by the end of 2020"
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3
- Trade Deficit decreased in August to $40.1 Billion
- Comments on Employment Report: Party Like it's 1999!
- September Employment Report: 248,000 Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Q3 Mall Vacancies, ISM non-Manufacturing
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate below 2% in August, Lowest since January 2009
- Preview: Employment Report for September
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q3 to 4.2%, First quarterly increase since 2009
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 287,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 Apartment Vacancy Rate
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in August
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.34 million annual rate in September
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 16.8%
- Construction Spending decreased 0.8% in August
- ISM Manufacturing index declines to 56.6 in September
- ADP: Private Employment increased 213,000 in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment, Q3 Office Vacancies, Construction Spending
September 2014
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate below 2% in August, Lowest since October 2008
- House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline in July
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.6% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI
- Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index up 0.2% in July, Up 5.1% year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in August, Spending increased 0.5%
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Strengthens" in September
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.0% in August, down 2.2% year-over-year
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales
- Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2014
- Schedule for Week of September 28th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 432 Institutions
- Trivial: Bill Gross and Yoga in 2007
- Merrill and Nomura Forecasts for September Non-Farm Payrolls
- Final September Consumer Sentiment at 84.6
- Q2 GDP Revised Up to 4.6% Annual Rate
- Friday: Revised Q2 GDP, Consumer Sentiment
- Lawler on ACS: Sharp Slowdown in Household Growth in 2013 Mainly Attributable to Fewer Folks Living Alone, Big Increases in “Doubling (and more) Up
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in September
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Edged Higher" in September
- CoreLogic: "Nearly 950,000 homes returned to positive equity in the second quarter of 2014"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 293,000
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in August
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods
- Lawler on Homebuilder KB Home and New Home Sales Report
- Comments on New Home Sales
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Exhibits Continued Strength" in August
- New Home Sales increase to 504,000 Annual Rate in August, Highest Sales Rate since May 2008
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- ATA Trucking Index increased 1.6% in August
- Chemical Activity Barometer "Pace of Growth Slows for Leading Economic Indicator"
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing conditions strengthened in September"
- FHFA: House Prices increase 0.1% in July, Up 4.4% Year-over-year
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates at 4.22%, Down from 4.45% Last September
- Lawler: Existing Home Sales Eased in August; NAR Bogusly Blames Monthly Dip on “Retreat” by “All Cash” Investors
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.5% year-over-year in July
- A Few Comments on August Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in August: 5.05 million SAAR, Inventory up 4.5% Year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth decelerated in August"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy up 4.5%, RevPAR up 11.8% Year-over-Year
- Schedule for Week of September 21st
- Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 435 Institutions
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased 11.9% year-over-year in July
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Negative in Q2 2014
- BLS: State unemployment rates little changed in August
- Fed's Q2 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High
- Lawler on 2013 ACS: Headship Rates, Homeownership Rates Fell Last Year
- A few comments on August Housing Starts
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey at 22.5 in September
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows upward adjustment of 7,000 jobs
- Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 280,000
- Housing Starts decrease to 956 Thousand Annual Rate in August
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Preliminary Employment Benchmark Revision, Scotland and More
- Sacramento Housing in August: Total Sales down 13% Year-over-year, Equity Sales down 5%, Active Inventory increased 61%
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: More Tapering, "Considerable Time" before rate increase
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in August
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in September, Highest since 2005
- Early Look at 2015 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement and Press Conference, CPI, Home Builder Confidence
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in August
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August
- Census: Poverty Rate declined in 2013, Real Median Income increased slightly
- BLS: Producer Price Index unchanged in August
- LA area Port Traffic: Soft in August
- Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic on pace for record in 2014, Convention Attendance Returning
- Goldman's Hatzius: Expect "Considerable time" to remain in FOMC Statement this Meeting
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.1% in August
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "business activity expanded at a robust pace" in September
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview: More Tapering
- Schedule for Week of September 14th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 435 Institutions
- Housing: "Price cuts are back"
- A few Analysts comments on FOMC meeting next week
- Preliminary September Consumer Sentiment increases to 84.6
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in August
- Friday: Retail Sales
- DataQuick: Home Sales slow in SoCal and Bay Area
- Hotels: Occupancy up 4.5%, RevPAR up 10.6% Year-over-Year
- Goldman Sachs Revises Q2 GDP estimate to 4.7%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 315,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Quarterly Services Report
- Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 7.4% year-over-year in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Refinance Activity Lowest since 2008
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices
- Las Vegas Real Estate in August: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 39%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.8% year-over-year in August
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 4.7 million in July, Up 22% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in August
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey
- Duy on Fed's "considerable time" phrase
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales down 9%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 22%
- Sunday Night Futures
- Research: Much of Recent Decline in Labor Force Participation Rate due to "ongoing structural influences"
- Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Schedule for Week of September 7th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 437 Institutions
- Lawler: Latest Release Shows Sizable Revisions in S&P/Case-Shiller “National” Home Price Index
- Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month
- Comments on Employment Report
- August Employment Report: 142,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Preview: Employment Report for August
- Trade Deficit decreased in July to $40.5 Billion
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.6% in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 302,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 204,000 in August
- Thursday: ECB's Draghi, ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Non-Manufacturing
- Lawler on Toll Brothers: Net Home Orders Down, Price Gains Slow; Some “Lessening” in Pricing Power
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.45 million annual rate in August, Highest since Jan 2006
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded, No "distinct shift in the overall pace of growth"
- Early: August Vehicle Sales may be over 17 Million SAAR, Highest Sales Rate since July 2006
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Auto Sales, Fed's Beige Book
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.4% Year-over-year in July
- Construction Spending increased 1.8% in July
- ISM Manufacturing index increases to 59.0 in August
- Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for July
- State and Local Governments: Contributions to GDP and Employment
- Mortgage Rates: A Long Way to Fall for a Significant Increase in Refinance Activity
August 2014
- Restaurant Performance Index declined in July
- Schedule for Week of August 31st
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 439 Institutions
- Merrill and Goldman Forecasts for August Non-Farm Payrolls
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined to 2.0% in July, Lowest since October 2008
- Hotels: Occupancy up 5%, RevPAR up 11.0% Year-over-Year
- August Consumer Sentiment increases to 82.5
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in July, Spending decreased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Regional Manufacturing Surveys suggest Solid August ISM index
- FDIC: Earnings increased for insured institutions, Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q2
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 3.3% in July, down 2.1% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 298,000
- A comment from Tom Lawler on Household Estimates; Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), Pending Home Sales
- Average 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates decline to 4.11%, No "Refi Boom" in Sight
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in July, Lowest since January 2009
- CBO Projection: Budget Deficits in Future Years to be Smaller than Previous Forecast
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in July
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Zillow: Negative Equity declines further in Q2 2014
- House Prices: Better Seasonal Adjustment; Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio Decline in June
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 8.1% year-over-year in June
- Black Knight: Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Process Lowest since March 2008
- Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller & FHFA House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- New Home Prices: 43% of Home over $300K, 8% under $150K
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 412,000 Annual Rate in July
- Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index up 0.8% in June, Up 5.5% year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth picked up in July"
- Sunday: No Futures for You!
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in August
- The recovery in U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- Schedule for Week of August 24th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 445 Institutions
- ECB's Draghi: Unemployment in the euro area
- ATA Trucking Index increased 1.3% in July
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% year-over-year in May
- Fed Chair Yellen: Unemployment Rate "somewhat overstates" Improvement in Labor Market
- Lawler: Fannie Survey on How Lenders “Adapt” to ATR/QM
- A Few Comments on Existing Home Sales
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey increases to 28 in August, Highest since March 2011
- Existing Home Sales in July: 5.15 million SAAR, Inventory up 5.8% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 298,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in July
- FOMC Minutes: Most Participants will wait for more data
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in July, "Highest Mark Since 2007"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Early Look at 2015 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in July
- A few comments on July Housing Starts
- Housing Starts increase to 1.093 million Annual Rate in July
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased 10% year-over-year in June
- LA area Port Traffic: A little soft due to strike in July
- BLS: State unemployment rates little changed in July
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 55 in August, Highest since January
- Sunday Night Futures
- Demolition as Stimulus
- Schedule for Week of August 17th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 447 Institutions
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in July
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
- Preliminary August Consumer Sentiment decreases to 79.2
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.4% in July
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "business conditions continued to improve" in August
- Friday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey, PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Repeat: U.S. Population by Age and Distribution, 1900 through 2060
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: July Home Sales down 9% Year-over-year, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying declines
- NY Fed: Household Debt decreased Slightly in Q2 2014, Delinquency Rates Lowest Since Q3 2007
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 311,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, NY Fed Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report
- DataQuick on SoCal: July Home Sales down 12% Year-over-year, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying Declines Further
- Flashback to August 2011 and 2013 (And a hint for 2015)
- Retail Sales unchanged in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales
- EIA Forecast: Gasoline Prices expected to decline to $3.30 per gallon in December
- Treasury: Budget Deficit declined in July 2014 compared to July 2013
- BLS: Jobs Openings increased to 4.7 million in June, Highest since 2001
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in July
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.3% YoY on Aug 11th
- Kolko: "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data"
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 8.0% year-over-year in June
- Fed's Fischer: "The Great Recession--Moving Ahead"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices
- Schedule for Week of August 10th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 449 Institutions
- Sacramento Housing in July: Total Sales down 4.5% Year-over-year, Equity Sales up 9%, Active Inventory increased 68%
- Lawler: Fannie, Freddie in Q2
- Fannie and Freddie Results in Q2: REO inventory declines, "modest increase in REO prices"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in July: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 55%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY
- Comments on Q2 National Delinquency Survey: About 2 Years until Normal Levels
- Hotels: Occupancy up 4.5%, RevPAR up 11.0% Year-over-Year
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves for the 55+ Housing Market in Q2
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.8% year-over-year in July
- MBA: Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Second Quarter
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 289,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since February 2006
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Payroll Employment and Seasonal Factors
- U.S. Births increased in 2013 after Declining for Five Consecutive Years
- Trade Deficit decreased in June to $41.5 Billion
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit
- Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales down 17%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 35%
- Q2 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.7%
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.5% Year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: ISM non-Manufacturing
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.6% YoY on Aug 4th
- Fed Survey: Banks eased lending standards, "broad-based pickup in loan demand"
- Goldman Sachs' Hui on House Price Seasonal Adjustments
- Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for June
- Sunday Night Futures
- Demographics: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of August 3rd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 451 Institutions
- Lawler: More Builder Results and Summary Table
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 16.4 million annual rate in July
- Construction Spending decreased in June
- Comments on Employment Report
- ISM Manufacturing index increased in July to 57.1
- Final July Consumer Sentiment at 81.8
- July Employment Report: 209,000 Jobs, 6.2% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Autos, ISM Manufacturing and More
July 2014
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since October 2008
- Preview: Employment Report for July
- Restaurant Performance Index declined in June
- Chicago PMI declines to 52.6
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 302,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since April 2006
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI
- Q2 GDP: Investment Contributions
- FOMC Statement: More Tapering
- GDP: A Few Graphs
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.0% Annualized Rate in Q2
- ADP: Private Employment increased 218,000 in July
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Q2 GDP, FOMC Statement, ADP Employment
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in June
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline in May
- HVS: Q2 2014 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 9.3% year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 15.6% YoY on July 28th
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since January 2009
- Dallas Fed: Manufacturing "Activity Picks up Pace Again" in July
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.1% in June, down 7.3% year-over-year
- Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index up 0.9% in May, Up 5.9% year-over-year
- Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
- FOMC Preview: More Tapering
- Schedule for Week of July 27th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 452 Institutions
- Bank Failure Friday: Greenchoice Bank, Chicago, Illinois,14th Failure of 2014
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in July
- Hotels: Record High Occupancy Rate for Week Ending July 19th
- Chemical Activity Barometer "retains strong year-over-year growth; shows short-term tightening"
- Lawler: Various Builder Results: Horton Home Orders, Market Share Jumps on Increased Sales Incentives; Orders “Lackluster” at Other Builders
- NMHC Survey: Apartment Market Conditions Tighter in Q2 2014
- Comments on the New Home Sales report
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Edged Higher" in July
- New Home Sales decrease to 406,000 Annual Rate in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 284,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since May 2007
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims and More
- Inflation: Another "False Alarm"?
- Housing Inventory: NAR and Housing Tracker
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in June
- Black Knight: Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Process Lowest since May 2008
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index, Mortgage Applications
- First Look at 2015 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- A Few Comments on Existing Home Sales
- Key Measures Show Inflation mostly at or below Fed's Target in June
- Existing Home Sales in June: 5.04 million SAAR, Inventory up 6.5% Year-over-year
- CPI increases 0.3% in June, Core CPI 0.1%
- Tuesday: CPI, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler: NVR: Net Home Orders Up Slightly in Q2, Little Changed YTD; Sales Per Community Down; Prices Flat on Quarter
- Tanta: What Is "Subprime"?
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 15.0% YoY on July 21st
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth decelerated slightly in June"
- Sunday Night Futures
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased more than 11% year-over-year in May
- Schedule for Week of July 20th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 463 Institutions
- Bank Failure #13 in 2014: Eastside Commercial Bank, Conyers, Georgia
- The Recovery for U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- BLS: No State with Unemployment Rate at or above 8% in June, First Time since mid-2008
- Preliminary July Consumer Sentiment decreases to 81.3
- DataQuick: "California Foreclosure Starts Lowest Since 2005"
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports increasing
- A few comments on June Housing Starts
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey highest since March 2011
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 302,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since June 2007
- Housing Starts decline to 893 thousand Annual Rate in June
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: June Home Sales up 0.2% Year-over-year
- Fed's Beige Book: Residential construction activity "generally increased"
- DataQuick on SoCal: June Home Sales down 4% Year-over-year, Non-Distressed sales up Year-over-year
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 53 in July, Highest in Six Months
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.2% in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Yellen, Industrial Production, PPI, Beige Book, Homebuilder Survey
- Earlier: Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 4 Year High in July
- Yellen: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in June
- Tuesday: Yellen, Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.1% YoY on July 14th
- CNBC's Liesman to Santelli: "It is impossible for you to have been more wrong"
- Update: The California Budget Surplus
- Sunday Night Futures
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- Schedule for Week of July 13th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 465 Institutions
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in June
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- House Prices to National Average Wage Index
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices
- New Tool from Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate up 4.4%, RevPAR up 9.0% in Latest Survey
- Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: Financial Sector Reform: How Far Are We?
- Sacramento Housing in June: Total Sales down 4% Year-over-year, Equity Sales up 13%, Active Inventory increases 91%
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 8.2% year-over-year in May
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 8.1% year-over-year in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 304,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales down 11%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 43%
- FOMC Minutes: QE3 Expected to End in October
- Goldman Sachs: Funding for Highway Construction Appears Likely
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Kolko: "Basement-Dwelling Millennials Are For Real"
- Las Vegas Real Estate in June: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 86%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY
- BLS: Jobs Openings increase to 4.6 million in May
- NFIB; Small business optimism declines in June
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.6% YoY on July 7th
- Duy: "Inflation Hysteria Redux"
- Demographics and Behavior
- Dorms as "Parents' Home": The long term trends for higher enrollment
- Sunday Night Futures
- Is Inflation Coming?
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 465 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of July 6th
- The Kids are Alright: Living in Dorms counted as Living in Parents' Home
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Mid-Year Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2014
- Correcting WSJ Graph Error on Wages
- Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for May
- Trade Deficit decreased in May to $44.4 Billion
- Reis: Strip Mall Vacancy Rate declined slightly in Q2, Regional Malls Unchanged
- Comments on Employment Report
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declines to 56.0%
- June Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate
- Thursday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM Service
- Preview: Employment Report for June
- Fed Chair Yellen: "Pockets of increased risk-taking"
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 2014 at 4.1%
- ADP: Private Employment increased 281,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Yellen
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 16.9 million annual rate in June, Highest since July 2006
- The Slow Down in the House Price Indexes
- Construction Spending increased slightly in May
- ISM Manufacturing index declined slightly in June to 55.3
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 8.8% Year-over-year in May
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 16.8%
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg Survey, Vehicle Sales, Construction Spending
June 2014
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 14.0% YoY on June 30th, Above June 30, 2012 Level
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since October 2008
- Schedule Update: Reis Office, Aparment and Mall Surveys to be released this week
- Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Activty Increases "Picks Up Pace" in June
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 6.1% in May, down 5.2% year-over-year
- Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
- Demographics: Prime and Near-Prime Population and Labor Force
- Schedule for Week of June 29th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 468 Institutions, Q2 2014 Transition Matrix
- Bank Failure #12 in 2014: The Freedom State Bank, Freedom, Oklahoma
- Lawler on Homebuilders Lennar and KB Home
- Chemical Activity Barometer for June Suggests "continued growth"
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in June
- Final June Consumer Sentiment increases to 82.5
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in May
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since January 2009
- Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group
- The Future is still Bright!
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Slowed Somewhat" in June
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in May, Spending increased 0.2%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 312,000
- Thursday: May Personal Income and Outlays, Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Merrill Lynch on Q1 GDP Revision
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.8% year-over-year in April
- Q1 GDP Revised Down to -2.9% Annual Rate
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Ugly 3rd Estimate of Q1 GDP, Durable Goods
- House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline slightly in April
- Comments on Housing and the New Home Sales report
- New Home Sales increase sharply to 504,000 Annual Rate in May
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 10.8% year-over-year in April
- Black Knight: Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Process Lowest since July 2008
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Fed's Mike Bryan: "Torturing CPI Data until They Confess"
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.6% year-over-year on June 23rd
- Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index up 0.9% in April, Up 6.4% year-over-year
- Comments on Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in May: 4.89 million SAAR, Inventory up 6.0% Year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: "Economic growth picked up in May"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- "3 reasons Iraq conflict isn't driving up gas prices (yet)"
- Schedule for Week of June 22nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 488 Institutions
- Bank Failures #10 & 11 in 2014: Two Valley Banks
- Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Down Year-over-year on June 20th
- Fed: Q1 Household Debt Service Ratio at Record Low
- BLS: Rhode Island only State with Unemployment Rate above 8% in May
- Merrill Lynch: Inflation: bump up or bust out?
- Freddie Mac: "Fixed Mortgage Rates Down Slightly"
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey suggests Solid Expansion in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 312,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in May
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: More Tapering
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Fed Day
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports increasing
- A few comments on Housing Starts
- Key Inflation Measures Show Increase, Year-over-year still mostly below the Fed Target in May
- Housing Starts at 1.001 Million Annual Rate in May
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.7% year-over-year on June 16th
- Wall Street and A Dirty Little Secret
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 49 in June
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.6% in May
- Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey
- FOMC Preview: More Tapering
- Schedule for Week of June 15th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 494 Institutions
- Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic on pace for record in 2014, Convention Attendance still Low
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
- Analysts on FOMC meeting next week
- Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment decreases to 81.2
- Sacramento Housing in May: Total Sales down 11% Year-over-year, Equity Sales up 8%, Active Inventory increases 84%
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: May Home Sales down 7.5% Year-over-year, Non-Distressed sales up slightly Year-over-year
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate up 3.1%, RevPAR up 7.4% in Latest Survey
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 317,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
- DataQuick on SoCal: May Home Sales down 15% Year-over-year, Non-Distressed sales up Year-over-year
- Treasury: Budget Deficit declined in May 2014 compared to May 2013
- Will Congress "Pay the Bills" in 2015?
- MBA:"Strong Growth in Mortgage Application Volume Following Memorial Day Holiday"
- Update: Will Mortgage Rates be down year-over-year in late June?
- Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory Doubles, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down sharply
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 8.4% year-over-year in April
- BLS: Jobs Openings increase sharply to 4.5 million in April
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in May, Highest since 2007
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 10.9% year-over-year on June 9th
- Lawler on Hovnanian: Home Sales Soft without “Big Deals”
- Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales down 21%, Cash Sales down 40%, Inventory up 47%
- Update: 41-Year-Olds and the Labor Force Participation Rate
- Sunday Night Futures
- 41-Year-Olds and the Labor Force Participation Rate
- Schedule for Week of June 8th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 495 Institutions
- Larry Summers on "House of Debt"
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Employment Recovery: Great Recession, Great Depression, and other Financial Crises
- Comment: U.S. Employment at All Time High
- May Employment Report: 217,000 Jobs, 6.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Negative in Q1 2014
- Employment Report Preview for May
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 8.0% year-over-year in May, "slowest rate in 13 months"
- Fed's Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High
- CoreLogic: Year Over Year, the Negative Equity Share Has Declined by 3.5 Million Properties
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 312,000
- Thursday: ECB, Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds
- Fed's Beige Book: Non-residential construction activity picking up, Residential is Mixed
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased in May to 56.3
- Trade Deficit increased in April to $47.2 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 179,000 in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Survey, Mortgage Rates "lowest levels in close to a year"
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM Service, Beige Book
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 16.7 million annual rate in May, Highest Rate since 2007
- Vehicle Sales in May: Solid Early Reports
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.5% Year-over-year in April
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 10.5% year-over-year on June 2nd
- ISM Correction: ISM Manufacturing index increased in May to 55.4
- Construction Spending increased 0.2% in April
- ISM Manufacturing index (ISM Correction)
- Mortgage Monitor: "Nearly 2 million modified mortgages face interest rate resets"
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing Survey, Construction Spending
- Restaurant Performance Index increases in April, Strongest since May 2013
May 2014
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 496 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of June 1st
- Bank Failure #9 in 2014: Slavie Federal Savings Bank, Bel Air, Maryland
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in April
- Lawler on Toll Brothers: Net Signed Contracts “Flat” vs. Year Ago; Prices Up But Gains Slow; Demand over Past Year “Relatively Flat”
- Headline for Next Friday: "U.S. Employment at All Time High"
- Final May Consumer Sentiment at 81.9, Chicago PMI increases to 65.5
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in April, Spending decreased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- A comment on GDP Revisions: No Worries
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increases 0.4% in April, down 9.2% year-over-year
- Q1 GDP Revised Down to -1.0% Annual Rate, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 300,000
- Thursday: Q1 GDP Revision, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Average 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates decline to 4.08%
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow slightly year-over-year in April
- MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"
- ATA Trucking Index increased in April
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 8.3% year-over-year on May 26th
- Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Richmond and Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Actiivty Increases "Mildly"
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.4% year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond and Dallas Fed Mfg Surveys
- Employment Graph Fail!
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR in May
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 499 Institutions
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.2% year-over-year in March
- Schedule for Week of May 25th
- Goldman's Hatzius: Rationale for Economic Acceleration Is Intact
- Bank Failure #8 of 2014: Columbia Savings Bank, Cincinnati, Ohio
- New Home Prices: Almost 45% of Home over $300K, Less than 5% under $150K
- Comments on the New Home Sales report
- New Home Sales increase to 433,000 Annual Rate in April
- Friday: New Home Sales
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate up 4.6%, RevPAR up 9.6% in Latest Survey
- "Employment Scars of the Housing Bust"
- Freddie Mac: "Fixed Mortgage Rates Near Seven Month Low"
- Existing Home Sales in April: 4.65 million SAAR, Inventory up 6.5% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 326,000
- Black Knight: Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Process Lowest since September 2008
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Negative Equity Quiz
- FOMC Minutes: Monetary Policy Normalization Discussion
- AIA: "Contraction in Architecture Billings Index Continues"
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Activity increases as Mortgage Rates Decline
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, Architecture Billings Index
- Apartments: Supply and Demand
- Fed's Dudley: Expect Long Run Fed Funds Rate to be well below the 4¼ percent average level with 2 percent inflation
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 47 states in April
- Zillow: Negative Equity declines further in Q1 2014
- Amusing: A False Story on Auto Inventory
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 6.8% year-over-year on May 19th
- CoreLogic on Housing: "Cash Sales Share Shows Clear Downward Year-Over-Year Trend"
- LA area Port Traffic: Up year-over-year in April
- Congratulations to Breanna Grow, the 2014 recipient of the Doris "Tanta" Dungey scholarship!
- Sunday Night Futures
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent, and compared to New Home Sales
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in Q1, Distress Sales just 10% of all sales
- Schedule for Week of May 18th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 502 Institutions
- Bank Failure #7 in 2014: AztecAmerica Bank, Berwyn, Illinois
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
- Lawler: Early look at Existing Home Sales in April
- Sacramento Housing in April: Total Sales down 5% Year-over-year, Equity (Conventional) Sales up 17%, Active Inventory increases 46%
- A few comments on Housing Starts
- BLS: "State unemployment rates were generally lower in April"
- Preliminary May Consumer Sentiment decreases to 81.8
- Housing Starts at 1.072 Million Annual Rate in April
- Friday: Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment
- Key Inflation Measures Show Increase, but still Low year-over-year in April
- Earlier: Philly and NY Fed Manufacturing Surveys suggest Solid Expansion in May
- NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased slightly in May to 45
- MBA: "Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Continue to Improve" in Q1
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.6% in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 297,000, CPI increases 0.3%
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production, Yellen and Much More; Plus San Diego Fire Photo
- Lawler on RealtyTrac and Cash Buyers
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: April Home Sales down slightly Year-over-year, Non-Distressed sales up 15% Year-over-year
- Flashback to March 2009
- Closing a Loophole in California's Prop 13 (Property Taxes)
- MBA: Refinance Applications Increase in Latest Survey, Mortgage Rates lowest since last November
- A Few links on FHFA Watt's Speech
- DataQuick on SoCal: April Home Sales down 6.6% Year-over-year, Non-Distressed sales up 17% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in April, Highest since 2007
- NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q1 2014, Delinquency Rates Lowest Since Q3 2007
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in April
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Q1 Household Debt and Credit
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 9.4% year-over-year on May 12th
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices
- MBA: Applications for New Home Purchases Increased in April 2014
- Sunday Night Futures
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 9.1% year-over-year in March
- Schedule for Week of May 11th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 509 Institutions
- The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy
- Hotels: On track for Strongest Year since 2000
- BLS: Jobs Openings at 4.0 million in March
- Friday: Job Openings
- Will Mortgage Rates be down year-over-year in late June?
- Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory Doubles, Median Price declines
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 9.0% year-over-year in April, "smallest year-over-year increase in 11 months"
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves year-over-year in the 55+ Housing Market in Q1
- Fannie and Freddie Results in Q1: REO inventory declines, "Lower demand for foreclosed properties"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 319,000
- Thursday: More Yellen, Unemployment Claims
- DataQuick: California Foreclosure Starts Hover Near 8-Year Low
- Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales down 12%, Cash Sales down 33%, Inventory up 49%
- Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Expects Growth Rate to Increase, "A high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted"
- MBA: Refinance Share of Mortgage Applications under 50% for first time since 2009
- Wednesday: Yellen on the Economic Outlook
- What's Right with Housing?
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow to 11.9% year-over-year increase in March
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 11.1% Year-over-year in March
- Trade Deficit decreased in March to $40.4 Billion
- Q1 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 8.6% year-over-year on May 5th
- Construction Employment: Pace of Hiring Increasing
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased in April to 55.2
- Mortgage Monitor: Mortgage delinquency rate in March lowest since October 2007, "Only One in 10 American Borrowers Underwater"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Participation Rate: Trends and Cohorts
- Goldman Sachs on the Labor Force Participation Rate
- Schedule for Week of May 4th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 509 Institutions
- Merrill: Q1 GDP now tracking negative 0.4%
- Lawler on New Homes: Sales will probably move higher over the course of 2014, Prices will not
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments on Employment Report
- April Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Employment Report Preview for April
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.0 million annual rate in April
- Lawler: Large home builders net orders last quarter "vitually flat" from year ago
- Construction Spending increased 0.2% in March, Public Construction Spending Lowest since 2006
- ISM Manufacturing index increased in April to 54.9
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 344,000
- Thursday: ISM Mfg Survey, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Construction Spending, and Yellen
April 2014
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March
- FOMC Statement: More Taper, Economic Growth "picked up recently"
- Q1 GDP: Investment Contributions
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 0.1% Annualized Rate in Q1
- ADP: Private Employment increased 220,000 in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Survey, Refinance Activity Lowest Since 2008
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Q1 GDP and more
- An exciting time for the Data Tribe
- NMHC Survey: Apartment Market Conditions Tighter in April 2014
- HVS: Q1 2014 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.9% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 8.2% year-over-year on April 28th
- A comment on the New Home Sales report
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Picks Up and Outlook Improves Notably"
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increases 3.4% in March, down 7.9% year-over-year
- Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index up 0.7% in February, Up 7.6% year-over-year
- Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
- Ranking Economic Data
- Schedule for Week of April 27th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 513 Institutions
- Bank Failure #6 in 2014: Allendale County Bank, Fairfax, South Carolina
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Solid in April
- A Few Q1 GDP Forecasts
- Final April Consumer Sentiment at 84.1
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment
- Lawler: More Builder Results, Summary of Q1 Results so far
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate, RevPAR decrease in latest weekly survey
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Moderated Slightly" in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 329,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Kansas City Mfg Survey
- Lawler on Meritage Homes: Net Home Orders Down despite Higher Community Count, “Less Pricing Power” Suggests Relatively Flat Home Prices for Rest of Year
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicated contraction in March
- New Home Sales decline to 384,000 Annual Rate in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in March
- Comments on Housing and Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in March: 4.59 million SAAR, Inventory up 3.1% Year-over-year
- Black Knight: Mortgage delinquency rate in March lowest since October 2007
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 6.1% year-over-year on April 21st
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Growth Moderated in March"
- Report: Property Tax Collections above Pre-Recession Peak
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 0.8% year-over-year in February
- Sunday Night Futures
- WSJ: Slight Easing of Mortgage Credit Standards
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 521 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of April 20th
- By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
- The Sluggish Recovery for U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- BLS: No State had 9% Unemployment Rate in March, First time since September 2008
- Merrill Lynch Reduces Housing Forecast for 2014
- LA area Port Traffic: Up year-over-year in March, Exports at New High
- Hotels: Strongest Year since 2000
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicated Faster Expansion in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 304,000; 4-Week average lowest since 2007
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in March
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased in most regions"
- Yellen: Three Big Questions for the FOMC
- A comment on Housing Starts
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.7% in March
- Housing Starts at 946 Thousand Annual Rate in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Yellen Speech, Beige Book
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
- DataQuick on SoCal: March Home Sales down 14% Year-over-year, Conventional (Equity) Sales increase
- Key Inflation Measures Shows Slight Increase, but still Low in March
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased slightly in April to 47
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "business activity was flat" in April
- Tuesday: CPI, NY Fed Mfg Survey, NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
- Sacramento Housing in March: Total Sales down 12% Year-over-year, Equity (Conventional) Sales up 16%, Active Inventory increases 71%
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 7.8% year-over-year on April 14th
- CBO Projection: Budget Deficit to be Smaller than Previous Forecast
- Retail Sales increased 1.1% in March
- Monday: Retail Sales, CBO Budget Projections
- Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2014
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 530 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of April 13th
- Update: The Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Tax Break
- WSJ: Zelman still Bullish on New Home Sales, Cuts forecast for Existing Home Sales
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 9.0% year-over-year in February
- Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment increases to 82.6
- Friday: PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- NY Times on the Smaller Budget Deficit
- "Reasons for the Decline in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation"
- Freddie Mac: "Fixed Mortgage Rates Tick Down"
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 10.0% year-over-year in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 300,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Number of Home Owners Lower than 2006!
- FOMC Minutes: SEP changes need "not be viewed as signifying a less accommodative reaction function"
- Goldman's Hatzius: "Rays of Light"
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase, Refinance Applications Decrease
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- "A Closer Look at Post-2007 Labor Force Participation Trends"
- When will total payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 128%
- BLS: Jobs Openings increase to 4.2 million in February
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in March
- Tuesday: Small Business Confidence, Job Openings
- CBO: Federal Deficit through March $187 billion less this year than it was in fiscal year 2013
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 7.7% year-over-year on April 7th
- Lawler: Phoenix "listings are way up and sales are way down"
- Employment Diffusion Indexes
- Mortgage Monitor: Delinquencies are below 6% for the first time since 2008, "Little Sign of Easing" in Credit Standards
- Sunday Night Futures
- Possible Reasons for the Decline in Prime-Working Age Men Labor Force Participation
- Labor Force Participation Rate Update
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 533 Institutions
- Research: Labor Force Participation Rate
- WSJ Employment Graph ignores Demographics, Needs Correction
- Schedule for Week of April 6th
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comment on Jobs Recovery and Policy
- Construction and Government Payrolls
- Comments on Employment Report
- March Employment Report: 192,000 Jobs, 6.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Employment Preview for March
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rates unchanged in Q1
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases to 53.1 in March
- Trade Deficit increased in February to $42.3 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 326,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing, Q1 Mall Vacancy Survey
- Survey: Small Businesses add more Jobs in March
- Research: "The Overhang of Structures before and since the Great Recession"
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate declined to 4.0% in Q1 2014
- ADP: Private Employment increased 191,000 in March
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase, Refinance Applications Decrease
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Q1 Apartment Vacancy Survey
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.2% Year-over-year in February
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 16.4 million annual rate in March, Highest since 2007
- Construction Spending increased slightly in February
- ISM Manufacturing index increased in March to 53.7
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined slightly in Q1 to 16.8%
- Tuesday: Auto Sales, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Q1 Office Vacancy Survey
March 2014
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since November 2008
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 6.7% year-over-year on March 31st
- Restaurant Performance Index indicates expansion in February
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Strengthens Further
- Chicago PMI declines to 55.9
- Monday: Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey, Yellen
- Merrill and Nomura on March Employment Report
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 538 Institutions, Q1 2014 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of March 30th
- Headline for Next Friday: "U.S. Private Employment at All Time High"
- Housing: The increase in inventory in the West
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in February
- Final March Consumer Sentiment at 80.0
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in February, Spending increased 0.3%
- Friday: February Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
- House Prices and Lagged Data
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing increased in March
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index down 10.5% year-over-year in February
- Q4 GDP Revised up to 2.6%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 311,000
- Thursday: Q4 GDP (3rd Estimate), Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: March Rebound
- Chemical Activity Barometer for March Suggests "continued modest growth"
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since February 2009
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase, Refinance Applications Decrease
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 12.8% year-over-year increase in February
- Comment on House Prices: Graphs, Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
- A comment on the New Home Sales report
- New Home Sales at 440,000 Annual Rate in February
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.2% year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 6.2% year-over-year on March 24th
- Black Knight (formerly LPS): House Price Index unchanged in January, Up 8.0% year-over-year
- Black Knight on Mortgages: "Nearly 1 million fewer loans in U.S. non-current population since last February"
- Chicago Fed: "Economic activity increased in February"
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Favorable Demographics for Apartments
- Hamilton: Graphs of key economic trends
- Schedule for Week of March 23rd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 552 Institutions
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 1.3% year-over-year in January
- Lawler on Lennar: Orders up 10.1% YoY; Prices, Margins Up Sharply; Saw “Volumes Returning,” But Not from First-Time Buyers
- Update: Predicting the Next Recession
- ATA Trucking Index increased in February
- Fed: Large Banks "collectively better positioned" to cope with "an extremely severe economic downturn"
- Fed: Q4 Household Debt Service Ratio near 30 year low
- Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicated Expansion in March
- Comments on Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in February: 4.60 million SAAR, Inventory up 5.3% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 320,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- What does Yellen's "around six months" mean?
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: More Taper, Forward Guidance Changed
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 48 states in January
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased slightly in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC
- LA area Port Traffic: Down year-over-year in February
- A comment on Housing Starts
- Key Measures Shows Low Inflation in February
- Housing Starts at 907 Thousand Annual Rate in February
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in February
- Research: Tight Credit significantly impacting Purchase Mortgage Lending
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 5.5% year-over-year on March 17th
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increased slightly in March to 47
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.6% in February
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Activity indicates "business conditions improved" in March
- Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Builder Confidence
- FOMC Preview: More Tapering, Change to Guidance
- Schedule for Week of March 16th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 559 Institutions
- Kolko: Where Do Housing “Leading Indicators” Lead Us?
- Report: "Blackstone’s Home Buying Binge Ends"
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in January, Distress Sales Declining Rapidly
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increased 2.1% year-over-year in latest Survey
- Preliminary March Consumer Sentiment declines to 79.9
- Friday: PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- FNC: House prices increased 9.0% year-over-year in January
- DataQuick: February Bay Area Home Sales Slowest Since 2008
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in February
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 315,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
- Sacramento Housing in February: Total Sales down 17% Year-over-year, Equity (Conventional) Sales up 18%, Active Inventory increases 88%
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 5.8% year-over-year on March 10th
- Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory Doubles
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Phoenix ARMLS: Total Sales down 17.4% year-over-year in February, Distressed Sales down 61%, Inventory up 37%
- CBO: Federal Deficit through February $148 billion less this year than it was in fiscal year 2013 (adjusted for timing)
- BLS: 4 Million Jobs Openings in January
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declines in February
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism Index
- Update on California Budget: Revenue Almost $1 Billion above Forecast in February
- Update: Framing Lumber Prices
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Sunday Night Futures
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Negative in Q4
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of March 9th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 564 Institutions
- Fannie, Freddie and FHA REO Inventory
- When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- Trade Deficit increased in January to $39.1 Billion
- Comments on Employment Report
- February Employment Report: 175,000 Jobs, 6.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 10.4% year-over-year in February, Price increases "Slowdown"
- Fed's Q4 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High
- CoreLogic: 4 Million Residential Properties Returned to Positive Equity in 2013
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 323,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q4 Flow of Funds
- Employment Preview for February: Another Weak Report
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased at "modest to moderate" pace in Most Districts
- Lawler on Hovnanian: Net Home Orders Far Short of Expectations; Sales Incentives Coming
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreases to 51.6 in February
- ADP: Private Employment increased 139,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ISM Service Index, ADP Employment, Fed's Beige Book
- Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO inventory increased in Q4
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12% Year-over-year in January
- Mortgage Monitor: Mortgage Loan originations declined to the lowest point since Nov. 2008
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 5.9% year-over-year on March 3rd
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 15.3 million annual rate in February
- Construction Spending increased in January
- ISM Manufacturing index increased in February to 53.2
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in January, Spending increased 0.4%
- Monday: Auto Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
- LA Times: New Home construction still near record lows
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in January
- Schedule for Week of March 2nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 566 Institutions
February 2014
- Bank Failure #5 in 2014: Vantage Point Bank, Horsham, Pennsylvania
- Bank Failure #4 in 2014: Millennium Bank, National Association, Sterling, Virginia
- Lawler: If New Home Sales report Accurate, Suggests Large Builder Share Down
- Zillow: Negative Equity declines further in Q4 2013
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index down 9% year-over-year
- Final February Consumer Sentiment at 81.6, Chicago PMI at 59.8
- BEA: Q4 GDP Revised down to 2.4%
- Friday: 2nd Estimate Q4 GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales
- Freddie Mac Results, REO Inventory increases in Q4
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing increased "slightly" in February
- Black Knight: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate lowest in over five years, Foreclosures Lowest since November 2008
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 348,000
- Thursday: Yellen Testimony, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Decent sales in February; Some weather impact
- New Home Sales: Don't read too much into January Sales Rate
- FDIC: Earnings increased for insured institutions, Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q4
- New Home Sales at 468,000 Annual Rate in January, Highest since 2008
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Index lowest since 1995
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 13.0% year-over-year increase in January
- Lawler on Toll Brothers: Net Home Orders Down in Latest Quarter; Weather Only Partly to Blame
- Update: Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Sector Softened" in February
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.4% year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices, Richmond Fed
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 5.7% year-over-year on Feb 24th
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.1% year-over-year in December
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing: General Business Index Flat, Production Increases, Employment Increases
- Chicago Fed: "Economic growth slowed in January"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Housing Weakness: Temporary or Enduring?
- Schedule for Week of Feb 23rd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 578 Institutions
- Weekend Reading: 2008 FOMC Transcripts
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in January
- Fannie Results, REO Inventory increases in Q4
- Existing Home Sales in January: 4.62 million SAAR, Inventory up 7.3% Year-over-year
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- MBA National Delinquency Survey: Judicial vs. Non-Judicial Foreclosure States in Q4 2013
- Key Measures Shows Low Inflation in January
- MBA: Mortgage "Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decline to Lowest Level in Six Years" in Q4
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Contraction in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 336,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports up year-over-year in January
- FOMC Minutes: "A clear presumption in favor" of Additional Tapering
- Housing Starts: Weakness, Weather, Fundamentals
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases slightly in January
- Housing Starts decline to 880 Thousand Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Index lowest Since September 2011
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, PPI, Architecture Billings Index, FOMC Minutes
- Real Household Debt down 17% from Peak, Real Mortgage Debt down 21%
- NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q4, Delinquency Rates Improve
- NAHB: Builder Confidence declines sharply in February to 46
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates slower expansion in February
- Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey, Q4 Household Debt and Credit
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 6.6% year-over-year on Feb 17th
- Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic declines slightly in 2013, Convention Attendance still 18% below Pre-Recession Peak
- The Stimulus Success
- Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery
- Update: Household Debt Service Ratio at lowest level in 30+ years
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of consumer spending
- By Request: Repeat U.S. Population by Age and Distribution, 1900 through 2060
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 586 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Feb 16th
- The New LA Skyline
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increased 0.3% year-over-year in latest Survey
- Preliminary February Consumer Sentiment unchanged at 81.2
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.3% in January
- Friday: Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in January
- MBA: New Home Purchases Up Sharply in January 2014
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
- Retail Sales decreased 0.4% in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 339,000
- Thursday: Yellen, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
- DataQuick on SoCal: January Home Sales down 9.9% Year-over-year, Conventional Sales up Sharply
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 8.7% year-over-year in December
- Update: It Never Rains in California
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease in Latest Survey
- Wednesday: Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for January
- Phoenix ARMLS: Total Sales down 17.1% in January, Distressed Sales down 59.6%, Inventory up 29%
- Zillow: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates increase slightly to 4.14%
- BLS: 4 Million Jobs Openings in December
- Yellen: "expect a great deal of continuity in the FOMC's approach to monetary policy"
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in January
- Tuesday: Yellen, JOLTS
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 4.7% year-over-year on Feb 10th
- The California Budget Surplus: Stock and Flow
- Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 96.2%
- Home Sales Reports: What Matters
- Sunday Night Futures
- When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- Schedule for Week of Feb 9th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 588 Institutions
- CBO: Federal Deficit at $10 Billion in January
- Reasons for a 2014 Pickup in Economic Growth Intact
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments on Employment Report: Disappointing Payroll Number
- January Employment Report: 113,000 Jobs, 6.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Lawler: Expect Downward Revisions to Census Q4 New Home Sales, Broad-Based Builder Optimism for 2014
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 11.4% year-over-year in January
- Trade Deficit increased in December to $38.7 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 331,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
- Fed Survey: Banks eased lending standards, Experienced increased demand
- Employment Preview for January: Taking the Over
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases to 54.0 in January
- ADP: Private Employment increased 175,000 in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Service Index
- Q4 2013 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 2.7% year-over-year on Feb 3rd
- CBO Projection: Budget Deficit to be below 3% of GDP for next four years
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 11% Year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: CBO Annual Budget and Economic Outlook
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 15.1 million annual rate in January
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves year-over-year in the 55+ Housing Market in Q4
- Construction Spending increased slightly in December
- ISM Manufacturing index declines sharply in January to 51.3 due to "adverse weather conditions"
- Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Starts Lowest Since April 2007
- Monday: Auto Sales, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in December, Lowest since November 2008
- Goldman and Merrill on January Employment Report
- Schedule for Week of Feb 2nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 590 Institutions
- Bank Failure #3 in 2014: Syringa Bank, Boise Idaho
January 2014
- Reinhart and Rogoff: Great Recession may "surpass in severity" the Great Depression in many Countries
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increased 2.4% year-over-year in latest Survey
- HVS: Q4 2013 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Final January Consumer Sentiment at 81.2, Chicago PMI at 59.6
- BEA: Personal Income increased less than 0.1% in December, Core PCE prices up 1.2% year-over-year
- Friday: Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment,
- Lawler on Homebuilders: Weak Net Orders, "Considerable optimism about the prospects for home sales in 2014"
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Decent Sales Expected for January
- A Comment on the Pending Home Sales Index
- Q4 GDP: Solid Report, Positives Looking Forward
- Q4 GDP 3.2%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 348,000
- Thursday: Q4 GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in December, Lowest since February 2009
- FOMC Statement: More Taper
- CoreLogic: Completed Foreclosures Down 24% in 2013
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase Slightly
- Wednesday: Fed Day
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 13.5% year-over-year increase in December
- Lawler: D.R. Horton sales up slightly year-over-year
- Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "generally lower" in December
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.7% year-over-year in November
- Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in December, Down almost 10% year-over-year
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey and More
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 1.8% year-over-year on Jan 27th
- New Home Prices: New Record for Average and Median in 2013
- New Home Sales: Weak Finish, Solid Growth in 2013
- New Home Sales at 414,000 Annual Rate in December
- Monday: New Home Sales
- Commentary on "Debt Limit": Senator McConnell Announces Intention to Fold Losing Hand Again
- GDP: Annual and Q4-over-Q4
- FOMC Preview: More Tapering
- Schedule for Week of January 26th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 600 Institutions
- Bank Failure #2 in 2014: The Bank of Union, El Reno, Oklahoma
- Unemployment Rate falling in "Sand" States
- Mortgage Rates compared to Ten Year Treasury Yield and Refinance Activity
- Q4 GDP Seen at 3.8%
- Framing Lumber Prices: Moving on Up
- Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Survey shows "Activity rebounded moderately in January"
- Comments on Existing Home Sales: Watch Inventory
- Existing Home Sales in December: 4.87 million SAAR, Inventory up 1.6% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 326,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- ATA Trucking Index increased in December
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 0.1% in November
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index declines in December
- MBA: Refinance Mortgage Applications Increase
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
- DataQuick: California Foreclosure Starts Dip to Eight-Year Low
- Private Investment and the Business Cycle
- Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate
- WSJ: Fed "on track" to Cut QE at Next Meeting
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 2.6% year-over-year on Jan 20th
- Research: The impact of 2014 FHA Loan Limit Changes
- LA area Port Traffic up solidly year-over-year in December
- It Never Rains in California
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in December
- Recovery Measures: Three out of Four Ain't Bad
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 605 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of January 19th
- Bank Failure #1 in 2014: DuPage National Bank, West Chicago, Illinois
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
- Housing Starts in 2013: 18% Annual Increase, Still Sixth Lowest Level on Record
- BLS: 4.0 Million Job Openings in November
- Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment declines to 80.4
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.3% in December
- Housing Starts at 999 Thousand Annual Rate in December
- Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, JOLTS
- NMHC Survey: Apartment Market Conditions Softer in Q4
- Key Measures Shows Low Inflation in December
- NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 56 in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 326,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Confidence
- Sacramento Housing: Total Sales down 20% Year-over-year in December, Conventional Sales up 33%, Active Inventory increases 44%
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "at a moderate pace" in Most Districts
- DataQuick: Bay Area Home Sales Drop to Six-Year Low in December
- FNC: House prices increased 6.7% year-over-year in November
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Activity indicates faster expansion in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: NY Fed Mfg Survey, PPI, Beige Book
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in December
- DataQuick on SoCal: December Home Sales at Six-Year Low, Foreclosure Resales lowest since May 2007
- Mortgage Monitor: 2013 Vintage "best-performing on record", Purchase Mortgages over 50% of originations
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in December
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in December
- Tuesday: Retail Sales
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 2.0% year-over-year on Jan 13th
- Treasury: $53 Billion Budget Surplus in December
- Update: The California Budget Surplus
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in December
- Sunday Night Futures
- More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Update: When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- Schedule for Week of January 12th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 613 Institutions
- Lawler on Builder "supply-chain" Issues in 2013
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Comments on the Disappointing Employment Report
- December Employment Report: 74,000 Jobs, 6.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Employment Report: Some Positive Outlooks
- AAR: Record Intermodal Rail Traffic in 2013, Carloads down slightly
- Trulia: Asking House Prices up 11.9% year-over-year in December, Price "Rebound effect fading"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 330,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 78.6%
- FOMC Minutes: "Proceed cautiously" with QE3 Tapering
- Employment Preview for December: Taking the "Under"
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rates decline in Q4
- ADP: Private Employment increased 238,000 in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, FOMC Minutes, Q4 Mall Vacancy Survey
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 13.7% year-over-year increase in November
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate declined to 4.1% in Q4 2013, Expected to increase slightly in 2014
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 11.8% Year-over-year in November
- Trade Deficit decreased in November to $34.3 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Q4 Apartment Vacancy Survey
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 2.0% year-over-year on Jan 6h
- ISM Indexes and BLS Employment Report
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 53.0 indicates slower expansion in December
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 16.9%
- Monday: ISM Service Index, Q4 Office Vacancy Survey
- Update: Extended unemployment benefits
- Housing Demolitions: The Return of the Bulldozers
- Schedule for Week of January 5th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 618 Institutions
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 15.5 million annual rate in December, Annual Sales up 7.5%
- Bernanke: The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward
- Fed's Lacker: Projecting 2% GDP Growth in 2014
- Question #1 for 2014: How much will the economy grow in 2014?
- Merrill Ups Q4 GDP Forecast to 3.0%
- Friday: Bernanke, December Vehicle Sales
- Question #2 for 2014: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2014?
- Construction Spending increased in November, Highest since March 2009
- ISM Manufacturing index declines slightly in December to 57.0
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 339,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
- Question #3 for 2014: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2014?
- Question #4 for 2014: Will too much inflation be a concern in 2014?
- Market Update: Happy New Year!