2013
1,749 posts
2013 1,749
December 2013
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in November, Lowest since December 2008
- Restaurant Performance Index increases in November
- Question #5 for 2014: Monetary Policy: Will the Fed end QE3 in 2014?
- Case-Shiller: Press Release and Graphs
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.6% year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI
- Question #6 for 2014: How much will Residential Investment increase?
- Question #7 for 2014: What will happen with house prices in 2014?
- Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.2% in November
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.1% in October, Up 8.8% year-over-year
- Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
- Question #8 for 2014: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2014?
- Schedule for Week of December 29th, Happy New Year!
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 619 Institutions, Q4 Transition Matrix
- Goldman Sachs: 10 Questions for 2014
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in November, Lowest since March 2009
- Preliminary: 2014 Housing Forecasts
- Unemployment and Profits: A dirty little secret
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.3% in October
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Solid Sales Expected in December and in 2014
- Question #9 for 2014: How much will housing inventory increase in 2014?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 338,000
- Question #10 for 2014: Downside Risks
- Q4 GDP: Here come the Upgrades
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in November
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 464,000 Annual Rate in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Refinance Activity Lowest since Nov 2008
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey and More
- Ten Economic Questions for 2014
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 2.3% year-over-year on Dec 23rd
- Chicago Fed: "Economic growth picked up in November"
- Final December Consumer Sentiment at 82.5
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in November, Spending increased 0.5%
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in November, Down almost 10% year-over-year
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2013
- ATA Trucking Index increased 2.7% in November
- Schedule for Week of December 22nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 633 Institutions
- Update: FHFA to Delay increase in Mortgage Fees
- "Will Mel Watt begin to reverse DeMarco's damage?"
- Lawler: A Few More Home Builder Results, and Comments on the Increase in Lots Owned/Controlled by Large Home Builders
- Research: The Long-Term Outlook for Residential Construction
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "generally lower" in November
- Q3 GDP Revised up to 4.1%
- Friday: Q3 GDP, State Employment, Kansas City Fed Mfg
- LA area Port Traffic up solidly year-over-year in November
- Comments on Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in November: 4.90 million SAAR, Inventory up 5.0% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 379,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: Taper!
- Comments: Housing Starts and Mortgage Index
- AIA: "Slight Contraction for Architecture Billings Index" in November
- Housing Starts at 1.09 million Annual Rate in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Survey
- Wednesday: Fed Day, Housing Starts
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in November
- Sacramento Housing: Total Sales down 29% Year-over-year in November, Conventional Sales up 14%, Active Inventory increases 57%
- Key Measures Shows Low Inflation in November
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases to 58 in December
- CoreLogic: Almost 800,000 Properties returned to positive Equity during Q3 2013
- CPI unchanged in November, Core CPI increases 0.2%
- FNC: House prices increased 6.5% year-over-year in October
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
- DataQuick on SoCal: November Home Sales Down 10.4% year-over-year, Foreclosure Resales lowest since May 2007
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 1.9% year-over-year on Dec 16th
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 1.1% in November, Above Pre-recession Peak
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Activity "flat" in December
- Sunday Night Futures: Time for Taper?
- FOMC Projections Preview: To Taper, or Not to Taper
- Schedule for Week of December 15th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 641 Institutions
- Bank Failure #24 in 2013: Texas Community Bank, National Association, The Woodlands, Texas
- Lawler: Update Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in November
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increases 0.2% year-over-year in latest Survey
- FHA Audit shows smaller projected shortfall in 2013
- BLS: Producer Price Index declines 0.1 percent in November
- Friday: PPI
- Lawler on Hovnanian: Net Home Orders Slowed Significantly in Summer; Rebounded Modestly as Year-End Approached
- Update: When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increase in October, Distress Sales Lowest Level in Five Years
- Retail Sales increased 0.7% in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 368,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
- Lawler on Fed Note: “Business Investor Activity in the Single-Family-Housing Market”
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Slightly Negative in Q3
- Update: Looking for Stronger Economic Growth in 2014
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Survey
- Update: Budget Deal is Reached
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in November
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 77.4%
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in October
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in November
- Tuesday: Small Business Survey, Job Openings
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 1.8% year-over-year on Dec 9th
- Fed's Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt increased slightly, First Mortgage Debt increase since Q1 2008
- Update on "Small Ball" Budget Agreement
- Sunday Night Futures: Taper Talk and "Small Ball" Budget Agreement
- Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering
- Schedule for Week of December 8th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 643 Institutions
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in November
- CBO: Federal Deficit declined Sharply in October and November compared to last year
- Personal Income decreased 0.1% in October, Spending increased 0.3%
- Preliminary December Consumer Sentiment increased to 82.5
- Employment Report: Decent Report, Solid Seasonal Retail Hiring
- November Employment Report: 203,000 Jobs, 7.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Personal Income and Outlays
- Comments on Q3 GDP and Investment
- Employment Preview for November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 298,000, Q3 GDP Revised up to 3.6%
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 GDP
- Trulia: Asking House Price increases Slow in Hot Markets
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "at a modest to moderate pace"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 53.9 indicates slower expansion in November
- New Home Sales increased to 444,000 Annual Rate in October
- Trade Deficit decreased in October to $40.6 Billion
- ADP: Private Employment increased 215,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Service, Beige Book and More
- Lawler: Single Family Inventory Down Again, But Pace of Decline Slowed in Q3
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 16.4 million annual rate in November, Highest since Feb 2007
- Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO inventory declined slightly in Q3
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.5% Year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 1.7% year-over-year on Nov Dec 2nd
- Restaurant Performance Index increases in October
- Construction Spending increased in October
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in November to 57.3
- Markit PMI shows stronger expansion for manufacturing in November
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Will Google Kill my Blog on December 6th?
- House Prices: CoreLogic to turn negative month-to-month seasonally in October
November 2013
- Schedule for Week of December 1st
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 645 Institutions
- Will the Fed "Taper" in December? Inflation is the Key
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since December 2008
- Europe: Euro Zone Unemployment Rate dips slightly
- Budget Negotiations Update: Playing "Small Ball"
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in October
- Irwin: "Five economic trends to be thankful for"
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 13.9% year-over-year increase in October
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since March 2009
- Merrill Lynch: Economy "Out of Rehab"
- Final November Consumer Sentiment increases to 75.1, Chicago PMI at 63.0
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 316,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly
- Wednesday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- FDIC reports Earnings Decline for insured institutions, Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q3
- FHFA: Most Conforming Limits Unchanged in 2014, Increased in Several High-Cost Areas
- Comment on House Prices and Graphs
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing improved in November
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.3% year-over-year in September
- Housing Permits increase to 1.03 million SAAR in October
- Tuesday: Housing Permits, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 3.2% year-over-year on Nov 25th
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Stronger Sales Expected in November
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.2% in September, Up 9.0% year-over-year
- Pending Home Sales Index declines 0.6% in October
- Sunday Night Futures: Oil Prices Decline
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Housing Starts for September and October Delayed Again until December 18th
- Schedule for Week of November 24th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 654 Institutions
- WSJ: Survey Indicates Weak New Home Sales in October
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.5% in September
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in October
- Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Survey shows Activity Growing at "Moderate Rate"
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in September
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate declined in October, In-Foreclosure Rate lowest since 2008
- Friday: JOLTS, Kansas City Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in October (including Florida)
- Zillow: Negative Equity declines sharply in Q3
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Slower Expansion in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 323,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Slows Down" in October
- FOMC Minutes: Discussion of how to communicate that rates will be low for a long long time
- Key Measures Shows Low Inflation in October
- Existing Home Sales in October: 5.12 million SAAR, Inventory up 0.9% Year-over-year
- Retail Sales increased 0.4% in October
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications decrease, Purchase Applications Increase
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, CPI
- Bernanke: Communication and Monetary Policy
- Real Estate Agents: First Increase in California licensees since 2007
- ATA Trucking Index declines in October, Up 8% Year-over-year
- LA area Port Traffic in October
- Tuesday: Bernanke
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up slightly year-over-year on Nov 18th
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices mostly unchanged in September, Up 8.4% Year-over-year
- NAHB: Builder Confidence at 54 in November
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Recovery Measures
- Housing: Short Sales, Non-Recourse Loans and Tax Forgiveness
- Schedule for Week of November 17th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 655 Institutions
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in October
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
- Hotel Occupancy Rate increases 2.5% year-over-year in latest Survey
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.1% in October
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Activity declines in November
- Friday: Tanta's Birthday, Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey
- Freddie Mac: Fixed Mortgage Rates Climbing
- FNC: House prices increased 6.2% year-over-year in September
- NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q3, Delinquency Rates Improve
- Trade Deficit increased in September to $41.8 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 339,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, Yellen Confirmation Hearing
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: Home Sales decline year-over-year in October, Conventional Sales up 26%
- EIA Forecast: Gasoline Prices expected to average $3.39 per gallon in 2014
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease 1.8% in Latest Weekly Survey
- The Cranes of Miami
- Lawler on Homebuilders: Net Orders Last Quarter Down From Year Ago
- Sacramento Housing: Total Sales down 25% Year-over-year in October, Conventional Sales up 19%, Active Inventory increases 93%
- The Return of the Cranes
- Chicago Fed: "Economic activity slightly improved in September"
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Declines in October
- Tuesday: Small Business Optimism Index (or more likely Pessimism)
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 2.2% year-over-year on Nov 11th
- Update: Looking for Stronger Economic Growth in 2014
- Update: When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- Sunday Night Futures: Gasoline Prices declines to $3.20 per Gallon
- Q3 2013 GDP Details: Residential Investment increases, Commercial Investment very Low
- State and local government austerity is over
- Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering
- Schedule for Week of November 10th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 661 Institutions
- State and Local Finances Improving, California Controller says: "Great Recession is becoming a faint image in the rear view mirror"
- Bernanke: The Crisis as a Classic Financial Panic
- Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 73%
- Employment Report: Solid Report ex-Government Shutdown, Seasonal Retail Hiring highest since 1999
- Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment declines to 72.0
- October Employment Report: 204,000 Jobs, 7.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
- MBA National Delinquency Survey: Judicial vs. Non-Judicial Foreclosure States in Q3 2013
- Lawler on Fannie and Freddie Results, REO Inventory Increases in Q3
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves year-over-year in the 55+ Housing Market in Q3
- MBA: Mortgage "Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Continue to Plummet" in Q3
- Q3 GDP: Growth slightly above Expectations, but Weak Personal consumption expenditures
- GDP increased at 2.8% Annual Rate in Q3, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 336,000
- Thursday: Q3 GDP, Unemployment Claims, Q3 Mortgage Delinquency Survey
- California and Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Fed's Pianalto: Tight Mortgage Credit holding back Economy
- Framing Lumber Prices up 15% year-over-year
- Will the Fed "Taper" QE and Change "Thresholds" at the same time?
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease 7% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Lawler: Household Estimate, If True, Disturbing; Fortunately, Probably Isn’t
- HVS: Q3 2013 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Employment Preview: Upside Payroll Surprise?
- Trulia: Asking House Price Increases "Slowing Down"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 55.4 indicates faster expansion in October
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.0% Year-over-year in September
- Tuesday: ISM Service Index
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 2.1% year-over-year on Nov 4th
- Fed Survey: Banks eased lending standards, "little change in loan demand"
- Fed's Bullard: Need to see "tangible evidence" inflation moving back towards 2% before Taper
- LPS on Mortgages: New Problem Loan Rates Close to Pre-crisis Levels
- Monday: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
- Retail: Seasonal Hiring vs. Retail Sales
- Will the Fed "Taper" in December?
- Schedule for Week of November 3rd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 662 Institutions
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Lawler on Homebuilders: Home Orders Off Significantly Last Quarter
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 15.17 million annual rate in October
- Comment: Looking for Stronger Economic Growth in 2014
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in October to 56.4
- Markit PMI shows "modest" manufacturing expansion in October
- Friday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Index
October 2013
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since December 2008
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 13.2% year-over-year increase in September
- Goldman's Hatzius: How Much Risk to Homebuilding?
- Chicago PMI increases sharply to 65.9
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 340,000
- Report: Budget Deficit Declines Sharply in Fiscal 2013
- Bank Failure #23 in 2013: Bank of Jackson County, Graceville, Florida
- Cost of Living Adjustment: 1.5%, Contribution Base for 2014: $117,000
- FOMC Statement: No Taper
- Key Measures Shows Low Inflation in September
- ADP: Private Employment increased 130,000 in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications increase 6% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement, ADP Employment, CPI
- Fed: Household Debt Service Ratio near lowest level in 30+ years
- FOMC Preview: Flying Blind
- Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.8% year-over-year in August
- Retail Sales declined 0.1% in September
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, PPI
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 0.3% year-over-year on Oct 28th
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since April 2009
- Q2 2013: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Strongly Negative
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Strengthens in October
- Pending Home Sales Index declines 5.6% in September
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.6% in September
- Monday: Industrial Production, Pending Home Sales
- DataQuick: Q3 California Foreclosure Starts Decline, Down 58.6% from Q3 2012
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 670 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of October 27th
- Survey: "Small business owners appear poised to flip the switch to growth mode"
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.3% in August
- ATA Trucking Index Up Sharply in September, Up 8.4% Year-over-year
- Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Stronger Sales in October Despite Government Shutdown
- Final October Consumer Sentiment declines to 73.2
- Friday: Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment
- FHFA: No Change in Conforming Loan Limits for at least Six Months
- Lawler on Homebuilders: Rising mortgage rates, Higher home prices, Resulted in a material slowdown in net home orders last quarter
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in August
- Trade Deficit in August at $38.8 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 350,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Job Openings
- LA area Port Traffic in September
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index Increases in September
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in September, In-Foreclosure Rate lowest since February 2009
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Unchanged in Latest Survey
- Wednesday: FHFA House Price Index, Architecture Billings Index
- Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up year-over-year on Oct 21st
- Employment Report Comments
- Chemical Activity Barometer for October Suggests Economic Activity Increasing
- Construction Spending increased in August
- September Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs, 7.2% Unemployment Rate
- Tuesday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- NMHC Survey: Apartment Market Conditions Loosen in Q3
- Comments on Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Sales in September: 5.29 million SAAR, Inventory up 1.8% Year-over-year
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Builder Confidence and Single Family Starts
- EIA Forecast: Gasoline Prices down sharply Year-over-year, Expected to Decline Further in 2014
- Schedule for Week of October 20th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 677 Institutions
- Data Schedule Update: CBO Will Release Budgetary Results for Fiscal Year 2013 in Early November
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices mostly flat in August, Up 9% Year-over-year
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in September
- Zillow: Home Value Appreciation slows in Q3
- WSJ: "Shutdown Upends Timing" of Taper
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in September
- BLS: September Employment Report to be released Tuesday, October 22nd
- Sacramento: Conventional Sales up Sharply Year-over-year in September, Active Inventory increases 77% year-over-year
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Solid Expansion in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 358,000
- Senate Approves Deal 81 to 18, House to Vote Later
- DataQuick on SoCal: September Home Sales Up 7.0% year-over-year, Foreclosure Resales lowest since May 2007
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "at a modest to moderate pace"
- Report: BofA Employee Arrested for Short Sale Fraud
- NAHB: Builder Confidence declines in October to 55
- MBA: Shutdown impacting Purchase Mortgage Application Activity
- Wednesday: Beige Book, Homebuilder Confidence, Tar and Feathers
- Shiller on 401K Plan Investing
- Zillow: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates increase slightly to 4.16%
- FNC: House prices increased 5.3% year-over-year in August
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Activity "held steady" in October
- Tuesday: NY Fed Manufacturing Survey
- WSJ: More Homes for Sales, Fewer Sales, Slowing Price Increases in Certain Areas
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory down only 1.0% year-over-year on Oct 14th
- The Agreement: What I'd like to see
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Sunday Night Futures: The Shutdown and the Damage Done
- Reports: Some Progress on Deal to Open Government, Still discussing Length of Agreement, Senate Adjourned until Monday
- Report: Office Vacancy Rate falling, "nowhere near the low vacancy that will result in new construction of office space"
- California State Controller: Revenue and Spending Tracking Budget, Warns on impact from Shutdown
- Schedule for Week of October 13th
- Shutdown End Guess: Congress doesn't want to miss Recess!
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in September
- WSJ: Shutdown starting to Hit Private Businesses
- Zandi Testimony: Economy Poised for Growth, Congress must Fund the Government and Pay the Bills
- Preliminary October Consumer Sentiment decreases to 75.2
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment, DELAYED: Retail Sales, PPI
- Report: No Agreement on Paying the Bills or Government Shutdown
- Freddie Mac: Fixed Mortgage Rates Little Changed
- Report: Hotel Occupancy Rate declines due to Government Shutdown
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase sharply
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Declining all-cash share in Vegas and Phoenix suggests slowdown in investor buying
- FOMC Minutes: "Considerable risks surrounding fiscal policy"
- Comment: Politics, Policy, Deadbeats and Default
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Mortgage Rates Lowest since mid-June
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, Janet Yellen
- Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 60%
- Gallup: Sharp decline in Confidence
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory down only 1.3% year-over-year on Oct 7th
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "Dips" in September
- Tuesday: Small Business Optimism, DELAYED: Trade Deficit, Job Openings
- Lawler: Fannie Mae on Government Shutdown and Government Verifications
- CBO Report on Fiscal 2013 Deficit
- Framing Lumber Prices increased recently
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquencies Decline in August, Prepayment Activity Declines Sharply
- Sunday Night Futures
- Shutdown Update and Schedule
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate tracking pre-recession levels
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 685 Institutions, Q3 Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of October 6th
- Goldman Sachs: When will Shutdown End?
- Merrill Lynch: Downward Revision to Forecast "Breaking Bad"
- Shutdown: Impact on Mortgage Lending
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in September
- Treasury Secretary Lew: "U.S. failure to pay bills hurts everyone"
- Fed's Lockhart: No Jobs Report, Fed "more cautious"
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs ... uh, No Jobs Report
- Employment Situation
- Trulia: Asking House Prices suggest "Slowdown" in Sales Price Increases
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rates decline slightly in Q3
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 54.4 indicates slower expansion in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase slightly, Four Week Average lowest since May 2007
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Service Index
- Update: Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Flying Blind: Data Held Hostage
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q3 to 16.9%
- ADP: Private Employment increased 166,000 in September
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Mortgage Rates Decline
- Wednesday: Office Vacancy Survey, ADP Employment Report
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 15.2 million annual rate in September
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.4% Year-over-year in August
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in September to 56.2
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate declined to 4.2% in Q3 2013
- Calculated Risk is Open on Tuesday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
September 2013
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in August, Lowest since December 2008
- Preparing for the Partial Shutdown
- Restaurant Performance Index declines in August
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up"
- Chicago PMI increases to 55.7
- Sunday Night Futures: Government Shutdown Very Possible
- Gasoline Prices down 35 cents per gallon year-over-year
- Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2013
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 690 Institutions
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in August, Lowest since April 2009
- Schedule for Week of September 29th
- Report: Employment Report to be delayed if Government Shutdown
- Vehicle Sales: Likely Weaker Sales in September
- Chemical Activity Barometer for September Suggests Economic Activity Increasing
- Final September Consumer Sentiment at 77.5
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in August, Spending increased 0.3%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays for August, Consumer Sentiment
- Commentary: Congress will "Pay the Bills"
- Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Survey "Moderated Somewhat"
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows upward adjustment of 345,000 jobs
- Pending Home Sales Index declines 1.6% in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 305,000, Four Week Average lowest since June 2007
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate declined further in August, In-Foreclosure Rate lowest in 4 1/2 Years
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q2 GDP Revision, Pending Home Sales, Prelim Annual Employment Benchmark
- Comments on New Home Sales
- Fed's Q2 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.3 Trillion from Peak, Record Household Net Worth
- New Home Sales increased to 421,000 Annual Rate in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, HARP Refinance Share Increases
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 12.4% year-over-year increase in August
- Lawler on Home Builder Results: Rising Rates, Aggressive Price Increases Dampened Sales
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 40 states in August
- Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.4% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 21.8% year-to-date on Sept 23rd
- Lawler: Video of How CoreLogic and Zillow House Price Indexes are Constructed
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.6% in July
- NY Fed's Dudley: Two Tests Before Taper
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.6% in July, Up 8.7% year-over-year
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Growth Picked Up in August"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Preliminary annual Employment benchmark revision to be released Thursday
- Mortgages, Eminent domain and Richmond
- Schedule for Week of September 22nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 692 Institutions
- Yellen Speech Next Week Canceled, Nomination as Fed Chair Expected Very Soon
- LA area Port Traffic: Import and Export Traffic Increases in August
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in August
- Will the BLS release an employment report for September?
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in August
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in August
- Comments on Existing Home Sales
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Solid Expansion in September
- Existing Home Sales in August: 5.48 million SAAR, 4.9 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 309,000, Four Week Average lowest since October 2007
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- A Few Comments on Bernanke Press Conference and Fed Policy
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: No Taper
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in August
- Housing Starts increased in August to 891,000 SAAR
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Announcement, Bernanke Press Conference
- August Update: Early Look at 2014 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments suggests 1.5% increase
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in August
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in August
- NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged in September at 58
- CPI increases 0.1% in August, Core CPI 0.1%
- Tuesday: CPI, Homebuilder Confidence
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 21.1% year-to-date on Sept 16th
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in August
- FNC: House prices increased 3.9% year-over-year in July
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.4% in August
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Activity expands at slower pace in September
- Monday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey
- FOMC Projections Preview: Some Modest Tapering is Possible
- Goldman and Merrill economists on "Tapering"
- Sacramento: Conventional Sales up Sharply Year-over-year in August, Active Inventory increases 47% year-over-year
- Hedge Fund Risk and Andy Lo's "Capital Decimation Partners"
- Schedule for Week of September 15th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 700 Institutions
- Bank Failure #22 in 2013: First National Bank, Edinburg, Texas
- Bank Failure #21 in 2013: The Community's Bank, Bridgeport, Connecticut
- DataQuick on California Bay Area: Sales "Dip" in August, Distressed Sales Down
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate tracking pre-recession levels
- Preliminary September Consumer Sentiment decreases to 76.8
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in August
- Friday: Retail Sales, PPI, Consumer sentiment
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady near Highs for Year
- DataQuick: August SoCal Home Sales down slightly from July, Up 2.8% year-over-year, Distressed Sales down
- Report: Homes Listed For Sales increased in August, Down only 2.5% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 292,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Treasury Statement for August
- Jim the Realtor: "The 2008 Collection"
- Report: New Home Sales soft in August
- Repeating myself on the "Debt Ceiling"
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Activity at Lowest Level since 2009
- Wednesday: Mortgage Applications
- Lawler: Consistent with Other US Housing Reports, Negative Equity Estimates Vary Widely!
- Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 41%
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in July
- CoreLogic: 2.5 Million Fewer Properties with Negative Equity in Q2 2013
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "flat" in August
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Confidence
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 20.6% year-to-date on Sept 9th
- Hovnanian: Higher Home Prices, Rising Mortgage Rates Dampened Home Sales in July and August
- CBO: Monthly Budget Review for August 2013
- Update: When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- Conforming Loan Limits and House Prices
- WSJ Report: Fannie, Freddie to lower Conforming Loan Limits in January
- Update on "eminent domain" for mortgages: North Las Vegas rejects "hair-brained scheme"
- NY Times on Shortage of Buildable Lots
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of September 8th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 704 Institutions
- Housing Watch: Inventory
- WSJ's Hilsenrath: September FOMC Meeting "Cliffhanger"
- Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering
- Employment Report Comments (more graphs)
- August Employment Report: 169,000 Jobs, 7.3% Unemployment Rate (graphs)
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- The Deregulators, Smarts and Judgment
- Employment Situation Preview
- Trulia: "Asking home prices rose 11.0 percent year-over-year (Y-o-Y) and 1.2 percent month-over-month (M-o-M) in August"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 58.6 indicates faster expansion in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 323,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 176,000 in August
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Service Index
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 16.0 million annual rate in August
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "at a modest to moderate pace"
- Survey: "Shortage of Lots Slows Housing Recovery"
- Trade Deficit increased in July to $39.1 Billion
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Auto Sales, Fed's Beige Book, Trade Deficit
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 19.5% year-to-date on Sept 2nd
- Lawler: The Fed, FHA, FHFA, and “Guv’ment” Policies on Mortgage Rates: Out of Whack or Just Plain “Wack?”
- Construction Spending in July: Private Spending increased, Public Spending Declined
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in August to 55.7
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.4% Year-over-year in July
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquencies Decline in June, Distressed Sales down Sharply
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
- WSJ: "FHA Cuts Waiting Period to 1 Year for Buyers Who Earlier Faced Foreclosure"
- GDP drag from State and Local Governments
- Population Distribution 1900-2060
- Update: Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering
August 2013
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 707 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of September 1st
- Vehicle Sales: Another strong month in August
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in July, Lowest since December 2008
- Chemical Activity Barometer for August shows "Economy on the Upswing"
- Final August Consumer Sentiment at 82.1
- Personal Income increased 0.1% in July, Spending increased 0.1%
- Friday: July Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Lawler: Regulators “Caving” on QRM
- FDIC reports $42.2 Billion Earnings for Insured Institutions, Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q2
- Zillow: Negative Equity declines in Q2
- Q2 GDP Revised up to 2.5%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 331,000
- Thursday: Q2 GDP (second estimate), Unemployment Claims
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in July, Lowest since April 2009
- Dean Baker: "Rising Mortgage Rates Did Not Affect June Case-Shiller Data"
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 12.5% year-over-year increase in July
- NAR: Pending Home Sales index declined 1.3% in July
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications down, Purchase Applications Up in Recent Survey
- Wednesday: Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales Index
- Lawler: Measuring Changes in Home Prices is Difficult!
- Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Sector Strengthened, Hiring Remained Modest" in August
- Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.1% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 21.4% year-to-date on Aug 26th
- NY Times: "For Laid-Off Older Workers, Age Bias Is Pervasive"
- LPS: House Price Index increased 1.2% in June, Up 8.4% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Posts Slower Growth" in August
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreases in July
- Monday: Durable Goods, Mortgage Delinquencies, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
- The Future is still Bright!
- New Home Prices
- Schedule for Week of August 25th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 714 Institutions
- Bank Failure #20: Sunrise Bank of Arizona, Phoenix, Arizona
- Bank Failure #19 in 2013: Community South Bank, Parsons, Tennessee
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 0.4% in June
- 5% 30 Year Mortgage Rates?
- Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales decline sharply to 394,000 Annual Rate in July
- Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Agenda
- Friday: New Home Sales
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates at highest level since 2011
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 34 states in July
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Improved Further" in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 336,000, Four Week Average Lowest since November 2007
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in July
- AIA: "Positive Trend Continues for Architecture Billings Index" in July
- FOMC Minutes: "Almost all Committee members agreed that a change in the purchase program was not yet appropriate"
- Comments on Existing Home Sales: Too early to see impact of higher mortgage rates, Inventory has Bottomed
- Existing Home Sales in July: 5.39 million SAAR, 5.1 months of supply
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications down 62% from Recent Peak
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
- Lawler: The Washington Post (and Reuters) get it wrong again on the GSEs
- ATA Trucking Index declined in July, Up 4.7% Year-over-year
- Zillow: House Prices up 6% year-over-year in July, Case-Shiller expected to show 12.1% YoY increase for June
- Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth in July again below average"
- Inventory, Inventory, Inventory
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 21.7% year-to-date on Aug 19th
- Research: Drop in Jobless Claims suggests pickup in Wage Growth
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in July
- San Francisco: Apartments converting back to condos
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate tracking pre-recession levels
- Percent of Population in Prime Working Age
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 717 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of August 18th
- LA area Port Traffic: Import Traffic Increases in July
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in July
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales
- Preliminary August Consumer Sentiment decreases to 80.0
- Housing Starts increased in July to 896,000 SAAR
- Friday: Housing Starts
- First Look at 2014 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- FNC: House prices increased 3.7% year-over-year in June
- Key Measures Show Low Inflation in July
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases in August to 59, Highest in almost 8 Years
- Fed: Industrial Production unchanged in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 320,000, Four Week Average Lowest since 2007
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, Philly & NY Fed Mfg Surveys, Industrial Production, Builder Confidence
- DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales "Jump" in July, Fewest Foreclosures since 2007
- By Request: U.S. Population by Age (earlier was by distribution), 1900 through 2060
- NY Fed: Household Debt declined in Q2 as Deleveraging Continues
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report, PPI, MBA Purchase Index
- Lawler: July Existing Home Sales "up significantly" from June; Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers
- Report: Homes Listed For Sales up 1.4% in July from June, Down 5.2% year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in July
- Retail Sales increased 0.2% in July
- Tuesday: Retail Sales
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 18.1% year-to-date on Aug 12th
- Sacramento: Conventional Sales up Sharply Year-over-year in July, Active Inventory increases 54% year-over-year!
- Comment: The Key Downside Economic Risk
- Greece: A Primary Budget Surplus, Depression Continues
- Sunday Night Futures
- U.S. Population Distribution by Age, 1900 through 2060
- U.S. Births "essentially unchanged" in 2012 after Declining for Four Consecutive Years
- Forecasts: Oil and Gasoline Prices expected to decline
- Schedule for Week of August 11th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 723 Institutions
- Merle Hazard: "Great Unwind" with commentary from several economists
- Bank Failure #18 in 2013: Bank of Wausau, Wausau, Wisconsin
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in July
- Update: The Shrinking Deficit
- Update: When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- LA Times: The Return of Condo Conversions
- MBA National Delinquency Survey: Judicial vs. Non-Judicial Foreclosure States
- Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 9%
- Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO inventory declines in Q2 2013
- NAHB: Builder Confidence improves in the 55+ Housing Market in Q2
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rates declined in Q2
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 333,000, Four Week Average Lowest since 2007
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q2 National Mortgage Delinquency Survey
- Q2 2013 GDP Details: Single Family investment increases, Commercial Investment very Low
- Another Dumb Idea: "Eminent domain" for Underwater Mortgages
- Event at 1 PM ET: President Obama answers questions on housing
- Freddie Mac on Q2: $5.0 Billion Net Income, No Treasury Draw, REO Declines
- MBA: Mortgage Applications mostly unchanged in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Mortgage Applications Index, Consumer Credit
- Tract Houses: "From the low $1 Millions"
- Trulia: "Asking Home Price Slowdown Amid Rising Mortgage Rates, Expanding Inventory, and Declining Investor Interest"
- BLS: Job Openings little changed in June
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 11.9% Year-over-year in June
- Trade Deficit decreased in June to $34.2 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings
- Lawler: Builder Buying of Land/Lots Over Last Year to Boost SF Production “Soon”
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 17.2% year-to-date on Aug 5th
- Fed Survey: Banks eased lending standards, "experienced stronger demand in most loan categories"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 56.0 indicates faster expansion in July
- LPS: Seasonal Increase in Mortgage Delinquencies in June
- Monday: ISM Service Index, Senior Loan Officer Survey
- Update: Recovery Measures
- Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering
- Percent Job Losses: Great Recession and Great Depression
- Schedule for Week of August 4th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 726 Institutions
- Bank Failure #17 in 2013: First Community Bank of Southwest Florida
- Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in June, Spending increased 0.5%
- Employment Report: Steady, but Slow Improvement
- July Employment Report: 162,000 Jobs, 7.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Employment Situation Preview
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 15.6 million annual rate in July, Best July since 2006
- Construction Spending declined in June, Public Construction Spending at Lowest Level since 2006
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in July to 55.4
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 326,000
- Thursday: Vehicle Sales, Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
July 2013
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since December 2008
- FOMC Statement: Downgrade from "moderate" to "modest"
- Q2 GDP: More Weakness, Data below FOMC June Projections
- Real GDP increased 1.7% Annualized in Q2
- ADP: Private Employment increased 200,000 in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: GDP, FOMC Statement, ADP Employment and more
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 12% year-over-year increase in June
- Housing: "Drought of properly priced homes"
- HVS: Q2 2013 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.2% year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Price Index
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 17.6% year-to-date on July 29th
- A comment on Fed Forecasting Records
- Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Increases but at a Slower Pace" in July
- NAR: Pending Home Sales index declined 0.4% in June
- LPS: House Price Index increased 1.3% in May, Up 7.9% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- They're Back! Congress threatens to Default Again
- FOMC Preview: Economic Slowdown
- Schedule for Week of July 28th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 729 Institutions
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in June, Lowest since early 2009
- Lawler on Publicly-Traded Home Builder Results, "Good Chance for Downward Revision in New Home Sales"
- Vehicle Sales: Another strong month in July
- Final July Consumer Sentiment increase to 85.1, Highest since 2007
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment
- Larry Summers and the Pivot to Austerity
- Freddie Mac: 30 Mortgage Rate declines to 4.31% in Latest Survey
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing expanded in July
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increases in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 343,000
- Comments on Janet Yellen; Thursday: Durable Goods, Initial Unemployment Claims
- NMHC Survey: Apartment Market Conditions Tighten slightly in July
- AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Stays in Growth Mode" in June
- A Few Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 497,000 Annual Rate in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease slightly in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- DataQuick: Q2 California Foreclosure Starts up from Q1, Down 52.9% from Q2 2012
- ATA Trucking Index increases slightly in June
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 29 States in June
- Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Weakens
- House Price Indexes: FHFA up 7.3% YoY, Zillow up 5.8% YoY
- Tuesday: FHFA House Price Index, Richmod Fed Mfg Survey
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 18.4% year-to-date on July 22nd
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in June
- Comments on Existing Home Sales: Solid Report, Inventory near Bottom
- Existing Home Sales in June: 5.08 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Activity Slightly Improved in June"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- DataQuick on California Home Sales: Total Sales Down, Conventional Sales up Sharply, Foreclosures lowest since August 2007
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 734 Institutions
- Existing Home Sales: Expect Below Consensus Sales
- Schedule for Week of July 21st
- Krugman: How Much Should We Worry About A China Shock?
- Two more Q2 GDP Downgrades
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% in May
- Brent and WTI Oil Futures: "The Spread is Dead"
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in June
- Janet Yellen for Fed Chair
- Research: Labor force participation rate expected to stay flat through 2015
- Detroit Files for Bankruptcy
- Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates Decline to 4.37% in Latest Weekly Survey
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Solid Expansion in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 334,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Bernanke
- Lawler: Update on June existing Home Sales and Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "at a modest to moderate pace"
- Housing Starts: A few comments
- Bernanke: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Housing Starts declined in June to 836,000 SAAR
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications increase slightly, Refinance Applications Decline in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Bernanke
- LA area Port Traffic: More Export Weakness in June
- Key Measures show low inflation in June
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases in July to 57, Highest in 7 Years
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.3% in June
- CPI increases 0.5% in June, Core CPI 0.2%
- Tuesday: CPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 18.1% year-to-date on July 15th
- Report: Home Listed For Sales up 4.3% in June from May, Down 7.3% year-over-year
- FNC: House prices increased 4.0% year-over-year in May
- Retail Sales increased 0.4% in June
- Monday: Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg Survey
- Oil and Gasoline Prices Increase, Spread between Brent and WTI Narrows
- Q2 GDP tracking 1.0%
- LA Times: The Housing Rebound in Orange County
- Schedule for Week of July 14th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 742 Institutions
- "US housing’s resilience"
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in June
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in June
- Preliminary July Consumer Sentiment decreases to 83.9
- JPMorgan: At or above current mortgage rates "refinance volumes and margins will be under pressure"
- Friday: PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Sacramento: Conventional Sales in June highest in Years, Inventory increases 18% year-over-year
- RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity Drops to Lowest Level since 2006
- Will the Fed "Taper" in September if the August unemployment rate is 7.6%?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 360,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Bernanke: "A Century of U.S. Central Banking: Goals, Frameworks, Accountability"
- FOMC Minutes: "Many members indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labor market would be required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset purchases"
- Timiraos: Foreclosure Squeeze Crimps Las Vegas Real-Estate Market
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Decline as Mortgage Rates Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, Bernanke
- Fed's Williams: "A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy"
- Zillow: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Surge to Highest Level in 2 Years
- BLS: Job Openings little changed in May
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged at 4.3% in Q2 2013
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declines in June
- Tuesday: Apartment Vacancy Survey, Job Openings
- Duy on Tapering in September
- Weekly Update: Existing Home Inventory is up 16.3% year-to-date on July 8th
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 17.0%
- LPS: Large Decline in Mortgage Delinquencies, U.S. Negative Equity Share Falls Below 15 Percent
- Sunday Night Futures
- House Prices and Mortgage Rates
- Lumber Prices off 25% from recent peak
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Schedule for Week of July 7th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 743 Institutions
- Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes
- Merrill Lynch on Taper Timing
- Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering
- Employment Report: More Hiring, Wages Up, Still Weak Labor Market
- June Employment Report: 195,000 Jobs, 7.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs
- Some Employment Statistics
- ECB's Draghi: "ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time"
- Trulia: Asking Home Prices increased in June
- Employment Situation Preview
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rates unchanged in Q2
- Trade Deficit increased in May to $45.0 Billion
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 343,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 188,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Decline as Mortgage Rates Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Service, Q2 Mall Vacancy Rates
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 15.9 million annual rate in June, Highest since November 2007
- June Vehicle Sales: Preliminary Reports suggests highest sales rate since 2007
- Existing Home Inventory is up 16.7% year-to-date on July 1st
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.2% Year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: June Auto Sales
- Deutsche Bank: Pace of Construction Hiring to increase in 2nd Half of 2013
- Update: Recovery Measures
- Construction Spending increased in May
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in June to 50.9
- Markit PMI shows "modest manufacturing expansion" in June, New export orders decline sharply
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
June 2013
- How many Jobs are Needed to Reach Fed's December Unemployment Rate Target for QE3 Tapering?
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 749 Institutions, Q2 Transition Matrix
- Oil: The Disappearing Brent / WTI Spread
- Schedule for Week of June 30th
- Goldman on The Impact on GDP of Higher Mortgage Rates
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in May, Lowest since early 2009
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show over 12% year-over-year increase in May
- Restaurant Performance Index at 14 month high in May
- Final June Consumer Sentiment at 84.1, Chicago PMI declines to 51.6
- Friday: Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate tracking pre-recession levels
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates highest since July 2011
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing contracted in June
- Personal Income increase 0.5% in May, Spending increased 0.3%
- NAR: Pending Home Sales index increased in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 346,000
- Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays for May, Weekly Unemployment Claims
- House Prices and Mortgage Rates
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 33 States in May
- Vehicle Sales in June forecast to be at highest level since 2007
- Q1 GDP Revised down to 1.8% Annualized Real Growth Rate
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Decline as Mortgage Rates Increase
- Wednesday: Q1 GDP (3rd estimate), MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
- Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000
- A few comments on House Prices and New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 476,000 SAAR in May
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.1% year-over-year in April
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate lowest since May 2008, Foreclosure inventories lowest since March 2009
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence and more
- Existing Home Inventory is up 16.9% year-to-date on June 24th
- Market Update
- LPS: House Price Index increased 1.5% in April, Up 8.1% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "surges" in June
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Activity slightly improved in May"
- Monday: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey, Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- Real Estate: Pocket Listings in a Tight Market
- A few comments on dumb policy
- Gasoline Prices down slightly Nationally, Higher in California due to Refinery Issues
- Schedule for Week of June 23rd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 751 Institutions
- Martin Wolf writes "Austerity has failed ... Not too late to change course"
- Is Bernanke pulling a Trichet?
- BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in May
- More Thoughts on QE3 Taper Timing
- Two more articles on QE3
- Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Expansion in June
- Comment on Existing Home Sales: Inventory near Bottom
- Existing Home Sales in May: 5.18 million SAAR, 5.1 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 354,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Analysis on Tapering QE3
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: "Downside risks have diminished", Inflation outlook revised down, No Taper
- AIA: "Strong Rebound for Architecture Billings Index" in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease, Mortgage Rates Increase
- Wednesday: Fed Day
- Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
- Housing Starts: A few comments
- Key Measures show low and falling inflation in May
- Fed: Household Debt Service Ratio near lowest level in 30+ years
- Housing Starts increase in May to 914,000 SAAR
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI
- FNC: House prices increased 4.6% year-over-year in April
- Existing Home Inventory is up 14.9% year-to-date on June 17th
- Redfin: "Here Comes the Inventory"
- NAHB: Builder Confidence increases in June, Over 50 for first time since April 2006
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing index increases in June
- Monday: Empire State Manufacturing, NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
- Mid-year Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2013
- WaPo on Deficiency Judgments
- FOMC Projections Preview: Disinflation Watch
- Schedule for Week of June 16th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 757 Institutions
- Goldman FOMC Preview: "Calming the Market"
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in May
- Housing bubble: The "Wealth" is Gone, but the Debt Remains
- Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment decreases to 82.7
- Fed: Industrial Production unchanged in May
- Friday: Industrial Production, PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- WSJ: "Fed Likely to Push Back on Market Expectations of Rate Increase"
- Freddie Mac: "Mortgage Rates on Six Week Streak Higher"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 334,000
- Retail Sales increased 0.6% in May
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
- Sacramento: Conventional Sales in May highest in Years, Inventory increases year-over-year
- CoreLogic: Negative Equity Decreases in Q1 2013, 9.7 Million Properties still with Negative Equity
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Mortgage Rates highest since March 2012
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Comment: Senator Elizabeth Warren and Short Sale Fraud
- DataQuick: SoCal May Home Sales Highest in 7 Years
- BLS: Job Openings decreased slightly in April
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in May
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Optimism
- Existing Home Inventory is up 15.5% year-to-date on June 10th
- Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Year-over-year Inventory decline slows sharply
- Quick Comment: Recession Calls and Markets
- Q1 2013: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Strongly Negative
- Sunday Night Futures
- Gasoline Prices down slightly Nationally, Higher in Midwest due to Refinery Issues
- Housing: Watch Inventory
- Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Schedule for Week of June 9th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 760 Institutions
- Bank Failure #16 in 2013: Mountain National Bank, Sevierville, Tennessee
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased in May
- WSJ: Fed could slow QE later this year
- Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- May Employment Report: 175,000 Jobs, 7.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Bank Failure #15 in 2013: 1st Commerce Bank, North Las Vegas, Nevada
- Europe: Been down so long ...
- Employment Situation Preview: Expect Disappointment
- Fed's Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.3 Trillion from Peak, Record Household Net Worth
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 346,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds Report
- Report: Personal Bankruptcy Filings decline 11% year-over-year in May
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity "increased at a modest to moderate pace"
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightly faster expansion in May
- ADP: Private Employment increased 135,000 in May
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications decline sharply as Mortgage Rates Increase above 4%
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Service Index, Fed's Beige Book
- Lawler: Single Family Homes Built/Sold in 2012: “Back to Bigger,” But on Very Low Volumes
- Existing Home Inventory is up 15.2% year-to-date on June 4th
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.1% Year-over-year in April
- Trade Deficit increased in April to $40.3 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in April, Lowest since early 2009
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 15.3 million annual rate in May
- Construction Spending increased in April
- ISM Manufacturing index declines in May to 49.0, Lowest since June 2009
- MarkIt PMI shows "only a modest rate of growth" in May
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index, Auto Sales, Construction Spending
- Bernanke: The Ten Suggestions
- Brent, Cushing and $3.50 per gallon Gasoline
- Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show over 12% year-over-year increase in April
- Schedule for Week of June 2nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 761 Institutions
- Friday Rock Blogging
May 2013
- Bank Failure #14 in 2013: Banks of Wisconsin, Kenosha, Wisconsin
- Restaurant Performance Index increases in April
- Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report Released
- Final May Consumer Sentiment increases to 84.5, Chicago PMI increases sharply to 58.7
- Personal Income declined slightly in April, Spending declined 0.2%
- Friday: April Personal Income and Outlays, 2013 Social Security Trustees Report
- Fake Prosperity in Ireland for the G8 Summit
- A few comments on 2nd Estimate of GDP
- Freddie Mac: "Fixed Mortgage Rates Highest in a Year"
- NAR: Pending Home Sales index increases slightly in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 354,000
- Thursday: Q1 GDP, Initial Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Single Family REO Inventory Continued to Decline in Q1; Down 24% from Year Ago, 39% from Two Years Ago
- Housing Report: Institutional Investor Stops Buying, blames "stupid money"
- Reports: Small Business Credit Improving
- FDIC reports Record Earnings for insured institutions, Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q1
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications increase, Refinance Applications decline sharply in latest survey
- Wednesday: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile
- 4% 30 Year Mortgage Rates?
- Existing Home Inventory is up 16.4% year-to-date on May 27th
- Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000
- Dallas and Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity mixed in May
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 10.9% year-over-year in March
- LPS: House Price Index increased 1.4% in March, Up 7.6% year-over-year
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- May Vehicle Sales forecast to be at or above 15 million SAAR
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama
- Gasoline Prices: Down slightly from last year on Memorial Day
- States: Mo Money Mo Problems
- How to Calculate Q2 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Growth
- Schedule for Week of May 26th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 767 Institutions
- Labor Force Participation Rate Sensitivity
- Lawler: Vegas Housing Market: “Sizzlin’ Hot,” and Yet So Cold
- Update: The Two Bottoms for Housing
- Merrill Lynch on Labor Force Participation Rate
- Durable Goods Orders increased 3.3% in April
- Friday: Durable Goods (and a comment on housing driving the recovery)
- Freddie Mac: "Mortgage Rates Continue Upward Trend"
- A few comments on New Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing expanded in May
- New Home Sales at 454,000 SAAR in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 340,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Existing Home Sales: A few comments
- FOMC Minutes: Exit Strategy Discussion
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates decreased demand for design services in April
- Existing Home Sales in April: 4.97 million SAAR, 5.2 months of supply
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate falls below 6.5% in April, Lowest since July 2008
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, Bernanke Testimony and more
- Fed's Dudley: "Lessons at the Zero Bound: The Japanese and U.S. Experience"
- ATA Trucking Index decreases slightly in April
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 States in April
- Zillow: House Prices up over 5% year-over-year in March, Case-Shiller expected to show 9.8% YoY increase
- Discussion on Inequality and Economic Growth
- Existing Home Inventory is up 17.7% year-to-date on May 20th
- Lumber Prices decline Sharply over last month
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 1.5% in March
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Activity Slower in April"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Report: Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup "nearly halt foreclosure sales"
- Research Notes: Fiscal Drag and Upward Revisions to Q2 GDP
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 770 Institutions
- Bernanke: "Economic Prospects for the Long Run"
- Schedule for Week of May 19th
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices declined seasonally in March
- LA area Port Traffic: Exports down slightly in April
- BLS: Unemployment Rate declined in 40 States in April
- Preliminary May Consumer Sentiment increases to 83.7
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
- Housing Starts: A few Comments and Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
- Key Measures show low and falling inflation in April
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Shows Contraction in May
- Housing Starts decline sharply in April to 853,000 SAAR
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 360,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in April
- DataQuick: SoCal homes sales highest for month of April since 2006, Distressed Sales down in California
- FNC: House prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in March
- Builder Confidence increases in May
- Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.5% in April
- Misc: Euro-zone Recession Continues, NY Fed Mfg Survey shows contraction, PPI Declines Sharply
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Industrial Production, Builder Confidence, PPI, Empire State Mfg Survey
- CBO Update: Deficit Shrinking Rapdily
- Sacramento: Conventional Sales over 68% of Housing Market in April, Highest percentage in Years
- Existing Home Inventory is up 13.5% year-to-date on May 13th
- NY Fed: Consumer Debt declines in Q1, Deleveraging Continues
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in April
- Tuesday: Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
- Labor Force Participation Rate Research
- Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO inventory declines in Q1 2013
- When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
- Retail Sales increase 0.1% in April
- Monday: Retail Sales
- EIA: Gasoline Prices expected to average $3.53 per gallon this summer
- Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type in Q1
- Schedule for Week of May 12th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 771 Institutions
- Bank Failures #11 & 12 in 2013: North Carolina and Georgia
- Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
- Report: Advanced Bookings suggest Strong Summer Season
- Bernanke: "Monitoring the Financial System"
- Friday: Bernanke "Monitoring Finance"
- NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market increases sharply in Q1
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rates increase in Q1, Foreclosure Inventory Down Sharply
- Fannie Mae Reports Pre-Tax Income of $8.1 Billion for First Quarter 2013
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 323,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Year-over-year Inventory decline slows
- Update: California Revenues $4.6 Billion ahead of Projections through April
- Freddie Mac on Q1: $4.6 Billion Net Income, No Treasury Draw, REO Declines
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase index at highest level since May 2010
- Temporary Help Services and Employment
- Existing Home Inventory is up 12.2% year-to-date on May 6th
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in April, "Rent growth has slowed"
- BLS: Job Openings decreased slightly in March
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.5% Year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: JOLTS
- Fed Survey: Banks eased lending standards, "experienced stronger demand"
- Update: Recovery Measures
- LPS: New Problem Loans at Lowest Rate in 6 Years; Negative Equity Drops
- Monday: April Senior Loan Officer Survey
- The End of Austerity in Europe?
- Lawler: Las Vegas Absentee Buyer Share Up Despite Plunge in “Distressed” Sales
- Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate
- Schedule for Week of May 5th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 773 Institutions
- Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in April
- Update: The Future's so Bright ...
- Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in April
- April Employment Report: 165,000 Jobs, 7.5% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates decrease in latest Survey, 15-Year at All-Time Low
- Employment Situation Preview
- Trade Deficit declined in March to $38.8 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 324,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in March
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decreased to 14.9 million annual rate in April
- FOMC Statement: "fiscal policy is restraining economic growth", "prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases"
- Residential Construction Spending increased in March, Non-Residential and Public Spending Decreased
- ISM Manufacturing index declines in April to 50.7
- ADP: Private Employment increased 119,000 in April
- MBA: Refinance Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Applications Decrease
April 2013
- Wednesday: FOMC Meeting, Auto Sales, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, ADP Employment and more
- Restaurant Index increased in March
- HVS: Q1 2013 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 9.3% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence
- Q1 2013 GDP Details: Single Family investment increases, Commercial Investment very Low
- Existing Home Inventory is up 12.1% year-to-date on April 29th
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "stalls" in April
- Pending Home Sales index increases in March
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in March, Core PCE prices up 1.1% year-over-year
- Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales
- FOMC Preview: Inflation Watch
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Bush and Obama
- Schedule for Week of April 28th
- Summary for Week ending April 26th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 775 Institutions
- The HARP Success Story
- Bank Failures #9 & 10 in 2013: North Carolina and Georgia
- Lawler: Selected Results (and Comments) from Large Publicly-Traded Builders for Last Quarter
- Q1 GDP and Investment
- Final April Consumer Sentiment increases to 76.4
- Real GDP increased 2.5% Annualized in Q1
- Friday: Q1 GDP
- WSJ: "Unemployment Hits New Highs in Spain, France"
- Zillow: Rate of Home Value Appreciation Slows Nationwide in Q1
- Update: CoreLogic acquires Case-Shiller
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing contracted "modestly" in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 339,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: How Much Has the Single Family Housing Market Shifted to Rentals (in numbers)?
- April Vehicle Sales forecast to be above 15 million SAAR for Sixth Consecutive Month
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates increasing demand for design services in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Index highest since May 2010
- Wednesday: Durable Goods, Architecture Billings Index
- ATA Trucking Index increases in March
- DataQuick: Q1 California Foreclosure Starts Lowest Since Late 2005
- A few comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 417,000 SAAR in March
- LPS: Total Non-current Mortgages falls below 5 Million for the first time since 2008
- Tuesday: New Home Sales
- Lawler on Housing: Table of Cash Buyers in March, Updated Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 1.4% in February
- Existing Home Sales: Conventional Sales up Sharply
- Existing Home Sales in March: 4.92 million SAAR, 4.7 months of supply
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Activity Slower in March"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Housing: Some thoughts on Investor Buying, Inventory and recent Price Increases
- Shiller on Housing: "Could be an auspicious time to buy"
- Schedule for Week of April 21st
- Summary for Week ending April 19th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 781 Institutions
- Update: Federal and State improving Fiscal Situation
- Bank Failures #7 & 8 in 2013: Both in Florida
- Bank Failure #6 in 2013: First Federal Bank, Lexington, Kentucky
- DataQuick on California Home Sales: Foreclosures lowest since September 2007
- BLS: Unemployment Rate declined in 26 States in March
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate tracking pre-recession levels
- Friday: State Employment, Snoxx Socks!
- NMHC Apartment Survey: Market Conditions Tighten in April
- Fed's Raskin: Low- and middle-income households hit hardest by Great Recession
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices up 5.1% Year-over-year in February
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Shows Slower Expansion in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 352,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in March
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity expanded at "moderate" pace
- LA area Port Traffic decreases year-over-year in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Index highest since May 2010
- Wednesday: Beige Book, Mortgage Applications
- Lawler: Updated Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in March
- A few comments on Housing Starts
- Key Measures show low inflation in March
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.4% in March
- Housing Starts increase to 1.036 million SAAR in March
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI, Industrial Production
- Gasoline Prices Continue Decline
- Existing Home Inventory is up 9.6% year-to-date on April 15th
- FNC: House prices increased 6.1% year-over-year in February, At 28 Month High
- Builder Confidence declines in April due to higher costs
- NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing index declines, Shows slight expansion in April
- Monday: Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Confidence
- Shiller and the Upward Slope of Real House Prices
- LA Times: The Industrial Boom in the Inland Empire
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 786 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of April 14th
- Summary for Week ending April 12th
- NY Times: "Fewer Home Loans Start to Affect Banks"
- Lawler: "Why Active Listings Excluding All Pending Contracts Aren’t a Good Measure of Inventory"
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 15% year-over-year in March
- Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment declines to 72.3
- Retail Sales decline 0.4% in March
- Friday: Retail Sales, PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates decrease slightly in latest Survey
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 8.9% Year-over-year for February
- "The Rapidly Shrinking Federal Deficit"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 346,000
- Thursday: Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in February
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in March
- Sacramento: Conventional Sales over 62% of Housing Market in March, Highest percentage in Years
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Conventional Purchase Applications highest since October 2009
- FOMC Minutes: Benefits of QE "outweigh the likely costs and risks"
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- Job Openings and Nonfarm Payrolls
- Las Vegas Real Estate: Conventional Sales up 40% year-over-year in March
- Lumber Prices near Housing Bubble High
- BLS: Job Openings increased in February, Most since May 2008
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declines in March
- Tuesday: Small Business Confidence, Job Openings
- Existing Home Inventory is up 8.5% year-to-date on April 8th
- Lawler: Goldman's Pretty Weak Argument that “National” Home Prices Last Year “Really” Increased by 3-4%
- Labor Force Participation Rate Update
- Over There: Portugal
- Sunday Night Futures
- Graphs for Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Business Week on Jim the Realtor
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 790 Institutions, Q1 Transition Matrix
- Summary for Week ending April 5th
- Schedule for Week of April 7th
- Bank Failure #5 in 2013: Gold Canyon Bank, Gold Canyon, Arizona
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in March
- Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- Trade Deficit declined in February to $43 Billion
- March Employment Report: 88,000 Jobs, 7.6% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit
- Fed's Yellen: Communication in Monetary Policy
- Employment Situation Preview
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate declines in Q1
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in March, Rents "flatten"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 385,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Mall Vacancy Survey
- Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since February 2009
- Fed's Williams: Expects to Meet "test for substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market by this summer"
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate declined to 4.3% in Q1 2013
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in March
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.2% Year-over-year in February
- ADP: Private Employment increased 158,000 in March
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications increase, Refinance Applications decrease
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Service, Apartment Vacancy Survey
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decreased to 15.3 million annual rate in March
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 States in February
- Fannie Mae reports record profit in 2012
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q1 to 17.0%
- Tuesday: Auto Sales, Office Vacancy Rate
- Update: Recovery Measures
- Existing Home Inventory is up 6.5% year-to-date on April 1st
- Construction Spending increased in February
- ISM Manufacturing index declines in March to 51.3
- Sunday Night Futures
March 2013
- NY Times: Following Cyprus bank closings, Other Tax Havens step in
- Gasoline Prices down 12 cents over last month
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 791 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 31st
- Summary for Week ending March 29th
- Report: Slow to Foreclose in Ireland
- Restaurant Index declines in February
- BLS: Unemployment Rate declined in 22 States in February
- March Consumer Sentiment increases to 78.6
- Personal Income increased 1.1% in February, Spending increased 0.7%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment
- Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment
- A comment on Jobs, Household Formation and New Residential Construction
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing contracted slightly in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 357,000
- Thursday: Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims, GDP, Chicago PMI
- Analysts increase 2013 house price forecasts
- Lawler: Single Family REO inventories down 23.4% in 2012
- Freddie Mac Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since mid-2009
- Pending Home Sales index declines in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications increase in latest survey
- Wednesday: Pending Home Sales
- Forecasts: Solid Vehicle Sales in March
- A few comments on New Home Sales
- Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000
- New Home Sales at 411,000 SAAR in February
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 8.1% year-over-year in January
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies decreased in February
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods
- Existing Home Inventory is up 7.5% year-to-date on March 25th
- Bernanke: Central Banker policies are not "beggar-thy-neighbor"
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity increased in March
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Activity Improved in February"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Reports: Cyprus Draft Deal Reached, No Details Yet
- Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate
- Cyprus Sunday
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 797 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 24th
- Summary for Week ending March 22nd
- Cyprus: Bank Resolution Bills Passed, Vote Saturday on Tax on uninsured deposits
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.5% in January
- Lawler: The “Strange Case” of the NAR’s Regional Existing Condo/Co-op Sales
- Cyprus Update
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate near pre-recession levels
- Cyprus Parliament expected to vote on new plan Friday
- Lumber Prices up Sharply, Suppliers Scramble to Keep Up
- Cyprus Update
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Shows Expansion in March
- Existing Home Sales: Conventional Sales up Sharply
- Existing Home Sales in February: 4.98 million SAAR, 4.7 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 336,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Index
- NY Times: "Surprise Demand for Housing Catches Industry Off-Guard"
- FOMC Projections and Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: "Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases, Strongest Growth since 2007
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement and Press Conference
- ATA Trucking Index increases in February
- Report: Cyprus's Parliament Rejects Bank Deposit Tax
- A few comments on Housing Starts
- CoreLogic: Negative Equity Decreases in Q4 2012
- Housing Starts increase to 917 thousand SAAR in February
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Existing Home Inventory is up 6.0% year-to-date on March 18th
- LA area Port Traffic increases year-over-year in February
- BLS: No State had double digit unemployment in January 2013
- Builder Confidence declines in March to 44
- Cyprus Update: Delay
- Sunday Night Futures
- Cyprus Update
- FOMC Projections Preview
- Updated Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in February
- Schedule for Week of March 17th
- Summary for Week ending March 15th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 801 Institutions
- Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in February
- Fannie Mae Delays Annual SEC Filing due to improved results
- Key Measures of inflation in February
- Preliminary March Consumer Sentiment declines to 71.8
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.7% in February
- CPI increases 0.7% in February, Core CPI 0.2%, NY Fed Manufacturing indicates expansion
- Friday: Industrial Production, CPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates increase in latest Survey
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 16% year-over-year in February
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 332,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- DataQuick: February Home Sales in SoCal highest in Six Years, Strong Investor Buying
- FHFA: Over 1 Million HARP Refinances in 2012
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 8.0% Year-over-year for January
- Retail Sales increased 1.1% in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease, Mortgage Rates highest since August 2012
- Wednesday: Retail Sales
- Jim the Realtor: Here is what it looks like at an open house
- Q4 2012: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal less negative
- Existing Home Inventory is up 5.0% year-to-date on March 11th
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in January
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in February, Still Low
- Tuesday: JOLTS, Small Business Confidence
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in February
- Update: The Recession Probability Chart
- Sacramento February House Sales: Conventional Sales up 41.4% year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Business Cycles and Markets
- Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 805 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 10th
- Summary for Week ending March 8th
- Bank Failure #4 in 2013: Frontier Bank, LaGrange, Georgia
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in February
- Freddie Mac Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in January, Lowest since mid-2009
- Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- February Employment Report: 236,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Employment Situation Preview
- Zelman: "Nirvana for housing"
- Fed's Q4 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.2 Trillion from Peak
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in January, "Non-Judicial States’ Pipeline Ratios Extending Due to Legislative, Legal Actions"
- Trade Deficit increased in January to $44.4 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 340,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, Q4 Flow of Funds
- No Government Shutdown on March 27th?
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity expanded at "modest to moderate" pace
- Report: Personal Bankruptcy Filings decline 21% year-over-year in February
- ADP: Private Employment increased 198,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book
- Market Update
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in February, Inventory not expected to bottom in 2013
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates faster expansion in February
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 9.7% Year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: ISM Service Index
- Existing Home Inventory is only up 3.4% year-to-date in early March
- Fannie Mae Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in January, Lowest since early 2009
- Update: Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Fed's Yellen: Challenges Confronting Monetary Policy
- Sunday Night Futures
- Q4 2012 GDP Details: Commercial Real Estate investment very low, Single Family investment increases
- Housing: The Two Bottoms
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 808 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 3rd
- Summary for Week ending March 1st
- Bernanke: How are long-term rates likely to evolve over coming years?
- Goldman Sachs on Sequestration Cuts
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 15.4 million annual rate in February
- Construction Spending declined in January
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in February to 54.2, Consumer Sentiment improves
- Personal Income declined 3.6% in January, Spending increased 0.2%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Auto Sales, Consumer sentiment
February 2013
- Freddie Mac: $4.5 Billion Net Income, No Treasury Draw, REO Declines
- Restaurant Performance Index: Expansion in January
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing contracted in February
- Fed: Consumer Debt increased slightly in Q4, "Deleveraging Process Decelerates"
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies decreased in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 344,000
- Thursday: Q4 GDP, Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: A few highlights from the Q4 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile
- Bernanke: Sequester could lead to "less deficit reduction"
- Pending Home Sales index increased in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease
- Wednesday: Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, Bernanke
- Misc: Sales Ratio Existing to New Home Sales, FHFA House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio
- A few Comments on New Home Sales
- New Home Sales at 437,000 SAAR in January
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 6.8% year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Bernanke
- Existing Home Inventory up 3.6% year-to-date in late February
- Market Update
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.1% in December, Up 5.8% year-over-year
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity increases in February but at a Slower Pace
- Chicago Fed: "Economic Growth Moderated in January"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Gasoline Prices up over 50 Cents per Gallon since December
- Forecast: Solid Auto Sales in February
- Housing: Some Details on the Business Model for Institutional Buyers
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven declined 2.9% in December
- Schedule for Week of Feb 24th
- Summary for Week ending February 22nd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 809 Institutions
- ATA Trucking Index "Best Ever January"
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 6.7% Year-over-year for December, Strong Price increases in January
- Housing: What if inventory keeps falling?
- A Brief Comment on Lumber Prices
- Correction: MBA National Delinquency Survey Graph
- Existing Home Sales: Conventional Sales up Sharply
- Key Measures show low inflation in January
- Q4 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments
- MBA: "Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Finished 2012 Down Sharply"
- Existing Home Sales in January: 4.92 million SAAR, 4.2 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 362,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, MBA's Mortgage Delinquency Survey, Unemployment Claims, CPI and more
- FOMC Minutes: "Several participants" support varying QE asset purchases
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales
- AIA: "Strong Surge for Architecture Billings Index"
- Housing Starts decrease to 890 thousand SAAR in January, Single Family Starts Increase
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease, Mortgage Rates increase
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes, PPI and more
- Housing: No "Troubling Divergence" between Completions and Sales
- Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
- Builder Confidence declines slightly in February to 46
- Residential Remodeling Index declines 6% in December
- Tuesday: Homebuilder Confidence Survey
- Lawler: Early Look At January Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Inventory up 2.3% year-to-date in mid-February
- FNC: "Foreclosure price discounts drop to pre-crisis levels"
- LA area Port Traffic in January
- Update: Recovery Measures
- Inland Empire: Starting to Recover
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 812 Institutions
- Summary for Week ending February 16th
- Schedule for Week of Feb 17th
- Bank Failure #3 in 2013: Covenant Bank, Chicago, Illinois
- Update: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in January
- Lawler: Publicly-Traded Home Builder Results and Comparison to Census New Home Sales
- Mortgage Rates Unchanged in Latest Survey, Up slightly over last few months
- Preliminary February Consumer Sentiment increases to 76.3
- Fed: Industrial Production declined 0.1% in January
- Friday: Industrial Production, Consumer sentiment, Empire State Mfg Survey
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 4.9% year-over-year in December
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 16% year-over-year in January
- Report: U.S. Foreclosure Starts Decline in January due to new California Law
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 341,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices up 4.3% Year-over-year
- DataQuick: January Home Sales in SoCal highest in Six Years
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in January
- Wednesday: Retail Sales
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in January
- More Research on Construction Employment
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in December
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases slightly in January, Still very low
- Nikkei Opens Up Sharply following Finance Ministers Price Target
- Las Vegas Real Estate: Sales and Inventory decreased year-over-year in January
- Fed's Yellen: "A Painfully Slow Recovery for America's Workers"
- Sacramento January House Sales: Conventional Sales up 51% year-over-year
- A Compendium of Tanta's Posts
- Sunday Night Futures
- Timiraos: "FHA Gets Scrutiny"
- Gasoline Prices increase to $4 per gallon in California
- "Sequester" Budget Cuts appear more likely
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 820 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Feb 10th
- Summary for Week ending February 9th
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate near pre-recession levels
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in January
- Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic at Record High in 2012, Convention Attendance Lags
- Meyer on Construction Jobs
- Trade Deficit declined in December to $38.5 Billion
- Friday: Trade Deficit
- Lawler on Housing: More Data on Cash Buyers
- Fed: Consumer Credit increased $14.6 Billion in December
- NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market dips in Q4, Up year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 366,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Consumer Credit
- California Housing Report: Record Cash Buying in 2012
- Redfin: "Homebuyer Demand Takes Off in January"
- MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications Increase, Highest Since May 2010
- Update: Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- CBO: Deficit to decline to 2.4% of GDP in Fiscal 2015
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in January
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates expansion in January
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 8.3% Year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: ISM Service Index
- Fed: Some domestic banks "eased lending standards", Demand for some Loans "strengthened"
- Housing: Inventory down 22% year-over-year in early February
- Irwin: No Bond Bubble
- Lawler: More Home Builder Results for Last Quarter
- Sunday Night Futures
- Restaurant Performance Index: "Softer Sales, Traffic" in December
- Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 822 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Feb 3rd
- Summary for Week ending February 2nd
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates mostly unchanged in December
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 15.3 million annual rate in January
- Construction Spending increased in December, Public spending lowest since 2006
- Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in January to 53.1, Consumer Sentiment improves
- January Employment Report: 157,000 Jobs, 7.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Auto Sales and more
January 2013
- LPS: Fewer Delinquencies in 2012, Highest level of Mortgage Originations since 2007
- Kolko: Here are the “Missing” Construction Jobs
- Employment Situation Preview
- Personal Income increased 2.6% in December, Spending increased 0.2%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 368,000
- Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- Lawler: Some Home Builder Results
- FOMC Statement: "Economic activity paused because of transitory factors"
- Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment
- Real GDP decreased 0.1% Annualized in Q4
- ADP: Private Employment increased 192,000 in January
- Wednesday: Q4 GDP, FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment
- Lawler on Housing Vacancy Survey
- HVS: Q4 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Comment on House Prices, Real House Prices, and Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Existing Home Inventory up 3.7% in late January
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Strengthens" in January
- Pending Home Sales index declines in December
- Housing Spillover Effects
- Monday: Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- Does this mark the top for bond prices?
- Thresholds for QE
- Me, Me, Me
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 825 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Jan 27th
- Summary for Week ending January 25th
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 5.3% Year-over-year for November
- WSJ: "Six Housing Forecasters Who Got Things Right in 2012"
- Hotels: RevPAR increases 12% compared to same week in 2012
- New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales at 369,000 SAAR in December
- U.K. Economy Shrinks Again
- Friday: New Home Sales
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.8% in November
- Forecast: Solid Auto Sales in January
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Contracted Modestly in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 330,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in December
- Understanding the Existing Home Sales Report
- AIA: "Fifth Consecutive Month of Gains in Architecture Billings Index"
- FHFA: House Prices increase 0.6% in November, Up 5.6% Year-over-year
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies increased slightly in December, "In Foreclosure" Declines
- Suspending the Debt Ceiling
- ATA Trucking Index increases 2.8% in December
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 36 States in December
- NMHC Apartment Survey: Market Conditions Loosen Slightly
- Existing Home Sales: Another Solid Report
- Existing Home Sales in December: 4.94 million SAAR, 4.4 months of supply
- Chicago Fed "Economic Growth Moderated in December"
- Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
- Existing Home Inventory up 2% in mid-January
- 2012 Preliminary Existing Homes: Sales up about 9%, Inventory down 19%
- 2012 New Home sales will be up about 20% from 2011
- LA area Port Traffic: Little impact from strike in December
- Flashback to 2007: Tanta on "Sound bankers"
- Predicting the Next Recession
- "The case for deficit optimism"
- "Financial Collapse: A 10-Step Recovery Plan"
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 826 Institutions
- Summary for Week ending January 18th
- Schedule for Week of Jan 20th
- Bank Failure #2 in 2013: 1st Regents Bank, Andover, Minnesota
- Lawler: Early Look At Existing Home Sales in December
- The Future's so Bright ...
- 2007 Fed Transcripts
- State Unemployment Rates "little changed" in December
- Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment declines to 71.3
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment, State Employment
- Lawler: 2012 "Surprises" in Housing and 2013 Forecast
- Some Comments on Housing Starts
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Shows Contraction in January
- CoreLogic: Negative Equity Decreases in Q3 2012
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 335,000
- Housing Starts increase sharply to 954 thousand SAAR in December
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 17% year-over-year in December
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity expanded at "modest or moderate" pace
- Key Measures show low inflation in December
- Builder Confidence unchanged in January
- Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.3% in December
- BLS: CPI unchanged in December, Core CPI increases 0.1%
- Wednesday: CPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence, Beige Book
- Sacramento December House Sales: Conventional Sales up 22% year-over-year
- DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales highest for December in Three Years
- After the Debt Ceiling is increased ...
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.4% Year-over-year in November, Largest increase since 2006
- Retail Sales increased 0.5% in December
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, PPI, Empire State Mfg Survey
- Bernanke to Congress: Do your job, Pay the Bills
- At 4 PM, Bernanke on "Monetary policy, recovery from the global financial crisis, and long-term challenges facing the U.S. economy
- Fed's Williams expects growth to pickup, Concerned about policy "uncertainty"
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 4.2% year-over-year in November
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rates increased slightly in November
- Sunday Night Futures
- Gasoline Prices up Recently, Expected to be lower than in 2012
- Jim the Realtor: "Price Pushing"
- No Trillion Dollar Platinum Coin
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 832 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Jan 13th
- Summary for Week Ending January 11th
- Goldman's Hatzius: 10 Questions for 2013
- Lawmakers urge the President to consider "any lawful steps" to pay the bills
- Nomura on China: Expect 8% Year-over-year growth in Q4
- Question #1 for 2013: US Fiscal Policy
- Trade Deficit increased in November to $48.7 Billion
- Friday: Trade Deficit
- The California Budget Surplus
- Question #2 for 2013: Will the U.S. economy grow in 2013?
- BLS: Job Openings "unchanged" in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 371,000
- Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Job Openings
- Question #3 for 2013: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2013?
- Question #4 for 2013: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2013?
- Question #5 for 2013: Will the inflation rate rise or fall in 2013?
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate declines in Q4
- Wednesday: Mall Vacancy Rate
- Las Vegas Real Estate: Sales and Inventory decreased year-over-year in December
- Question #6 for 2013: What will happen with Monetary Policy and QE3?
- Question #7 for 2013: What will happen with house prices in 2013?
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate declined to 4.5% in Q4
- Tuesday: Apartment Vacancy Rate
- Housing: Inventory down 24% year-over-year in early January
- Question #8 for 2013: Will Housing inventory bottom in 2013?
- Thoughts on the Budget Deficit
- Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q4 to 17.1%
- Sunday Night Futures
- Question #9 for 2013: How much will Residential Investment increase?
- Question #10 for 2013: Europe and the Euro
- Labor Force Participation Rate Update
- Default Ceiling: Bluffing into the Nuts
- Summary for Week Ending January 4th
- Schedule for Week of Jan 6th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 834 Institutions
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in December
- Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases in December
- December Employment Report: 155,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 15.3 million annual rate in December
- FOMC Minutes: "Several" members expect QE3 to end in 2013
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Near Record Lows
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 372,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 215,000 in December
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Minutes, Auto Sales
- Fiscal Deal: A few things to like
- CoreLogic: Existing Home Shadow Inventory declines 12% year-over-year
- Construction Spending declined in November
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in December to 50.7
- MarkIt PMI shows "solid expansion of manufacturing sector" in December
- "Fiscal Cliff": House Passes Bill, Obama says he will not debate default ceiling
- Wednesday: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
- Tax Bill: Cancelled Mortgage Debt Relief extended for one year in Senate Bill
- "Fiscal Cliff": House could vote as early as 1 PM ET
- Happy New Year!