2012
1,932 posts
2012 1,932
December 2012
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in November
- Restaurant Performance Index indicates slight contraction in November
- "Fiscal Cliff" Deal
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Slow Growth and Improved Company Outlook" in December
- Update on "Fiscal Cliff" Negotiations
- Sunday Night Futures
- Housing: 2.5% Year over Year change in Asking Prices
- "Fiscal Cliff": 3PM ET "deadline" for Reid and McConnell
- "Fiscal Cliff" Update
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 838 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Dec 30th
- Summary for Week ending Dec 28th
- Update on Fiscal Cliff
- The Bubble in "Cliffs"
- Hotels: Record Demand in 2012, Near 2008 Room Rates, Little New Supply
- Forecasts: Strong December for Vehicle Sales, Slowing growth in 2013
- Chicago PMI increases to 51.6, Pending Home Sales index increases
- Friday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
- Sales Ratio: Existing to New Homes
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 45 States in November
- "Fiscal Cliff": There is no Drop Dead Date and more thoughts
- New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales at 377,000 SAAR in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 350,000, 4-Week average at low for 2012
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Initial Unemployment Claims
- Lawler: An “Update” to the “Excess” Supply of Housing
- Comment on House Prices, Real House Prices, and Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 4.3% year-over-year in October
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.3% in October, Up 4.3% year-over-year
- Wednesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
- Private Investment and the Business Cycle
- Happy Holidays!
- Ten Economic Questions for 2013
- Review of My 2012 Forecasts
- "Fiscal Cliff": Weary eyes turn toward the Senate
- Sunday Night Futures
- Gasoline Prices near Low for Year, Expected to Increase
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.3% in October
- Fiscal Agreement Update
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 841 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Dec 23rd
- Summary for Week ending Dec 21st
- Earlier: Chicago Fed National Activity Index improves, Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey shows contraction
- ATA Trucking Index rebounds in November
- State Unemployment Rates decreased in 45 States in November
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies increased in November, "In Foreclosure" Declines
- Final December Consumer Sentiment declines to 72.9
- Personal Income increased 0.6% in November, Spending increased 0.4%
- Friday: November Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment
- Existing Home Sales: The Increase in Conventional Sales
- Misc: Philly Fed Mfg Shows Expansion, Q3 GDP Revised Up, FHFA House Prices increase
- Existing Home Sales: Another Solid Report
- Existing Home Sales in November: 5.04 million SAAR, 4.8 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 361,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Q3 GDP, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- 2013 Housing Forecasts
- Lawler: Updated Outlook on November Existing Home Sales: Expect 5.1 Million (SAAR)
- Comments on Housing Starts
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 4.1% Year-over-year for October
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in November, "Strongest conditions since end of 2007"
- Housing Starts at 861 thousand SAAR in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decline sharply
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 17% year-over-year in November
- Update on Fiscal Cliff
- Builder Confidence increases in December, Highest since April 2006
- Housing: Inventory down 24% year-over-year in mid-December
- Tuesday: NAHB Home Builder Confidence
- Fiscal Cliff: Chained CPI
- Lawler: Foreclosure Share Way Down, But Not All-Cash Share; Suggests Investor Purchases of Non-REO Properties Up Sharply
- Early: Housing Forecasts for 2013
- LA area Port Traffic: Down in November due to Strike
- Empire State Manufacturing index indicates further contraction
- Sunday Night Futures
- NY Times: Sunnier Forecast, D.C. Shadow
- Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in November
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 3.7% year-over-year in October
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 845 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Dec 16th
- Summary for Week ending Dec 14th
- Some Bullish 2013 House Price Forecasts
- Bank Failure #51: Community Bank of the Ozarks, Sunrise Beach, Missouri
- Lawler: Very Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
- Economic Outlook: Where are we?
- Key Measures show low inflation in November
- Industrial Production increased 1.1% in November, Bounces back following Hurricane Sandy
- BLS: CPI declines 0.3% in November, Core CPI increases 0.1%
- Friday: CPI, Industrial Production
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices decrease slightly in October, Up 6% Year-over-year
- Sacramento November House Sales: Conventional Sales up 46% year-over-year
- Will Housing Inventory Bottom in 2013?
- Retail Sales increased 0.3% in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 343,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, PPI
- DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales highest for November in Six Years
- Lawler: Delinquency/Foreclosure Rates by State for Five Servicers
- FOMC Projections and Bernanke Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: Expand QE3, Sets Thresholds of 6.5% Unemployment Rate, 2 1/2 Inflation
- Irwin: Five Things to Watch for on Fed Day
- MBA: Mortgage Applications increase, Record Low Mortgage Rates
- Wednesday: FOMC Meeting
- Merrill Lynch on Housing and Construction Employment
- Lawler: Update to Distressed Sales Table, Reno Correction
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in October
- Trade Deficit increased in October to $42.2 Billion
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, JOLTS
- Weisenthal interview with Goldman's Jan Hatzius
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in November
- Las Vegas Real Estate: Sales and Inventory decreased in November
- Q3 2012: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal strongly negative
- The Italian Job
- Sunday Night Futures
- Labor Force Participation Rate Update
- FOMC Projections Preview
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 849 Institutions
- Hotel Occupancy Rate above pre-recession levels at end of November
- Schedule for Week of Dec 9th
- Summary for Week Ending Dec 7th
- "Oil to the World"
- November Employment Diffusion Indexes
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in November
- Employment Report: More Positives than Negatives
- Preliminary December Consumer Sentiment declines sharply to 74.5
- November Employment Report: 146,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Consumer Sentiment
- Employment Situation Preview
- Fed's Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.15 Trillion from Peak
- Update: Mortgage Debt Relief Act
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 370,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds Report
- Lawler: On the upward trend in Real House Prices
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rates decreased in October
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases in November
- ADP: Private Employment increased 118,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications increase, Record Low Mortgage Rates
- Wednesday: ISM Service, ADP Employment
- Manufacturing: ISM PMI vs. Markit
- Lawler: Single Family REO inventories down 21.7% in Q3
- FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks, Total REO Declines in Q3
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in November
- CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in October, Largest increase since 2006
- Housing: Inventory down 22% year-over-year in early December
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 15.5 million annual rate in November, Highest Since 2007
- CoreLogic: 58,000 Completed Foreclosures in October
- Construction Spending increased in October
- ISM Manufacturing index declines in November to 49.5, Lowest since July 2009
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 856 Institutions
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Auto Sales, Construction Spending
- Report: Germany to eventually consider Greek Losses
- Impact of Sandy on Employment, November Contest Winners
- House Prices: Case-Shiller to turn negative month-to-month seasonally in October
- Summary for Week Ending Nov 30th
- Schedule for Week of Dec 2nd
- Goldman Sachs: "Moving Over the Hump"
November 2012
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in October
- Restaurant Performance Index indicates contraction in October
- The impact of Sandy on PCE, Chicago PMI at 50.4
- Personal Income unchanged in October, Spending decreased 0.2%
- Friday: October Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Near Record Lows
- A few comments on GDP Revision and Unemployment Claims
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Eased Further" in November
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increases in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 393,000
- Thursday: Q3 GDP, Unemployment claims, Pending Home Sales
- FHFA: HARP Refinance Boom Continued in September
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity expanded at a measured pace"
- New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales at 368,000 SAAR in October
- MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications increase, Refinance Applications decrease
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Beige Book
- Update: The Recession Probability Chart
- Fed: Consumer Deleveraging Continued in Q3, Student Debt increases
- Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case-Shiller House Price Comments and Graphs
- Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 3.0% year-over-year in September
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods Orders
- Greek Debt Deal Reached
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.1% in September, Up 3.6% year-over-year
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies decreased in October, Percent in foreclosure process lowest since August 2009
- Timiraos: "The FHA’s Biggest Loser"
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Stalls" in November
- Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Slower in October
- Sunday Night Futures
- Greece Update: Eurozone finance ministers meet Monday
- Update: Case-Shiller House Prices will probably decline month-to-month Seasonally starting in October
- Jim the Realtor: Upcoming REO listings
- Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 857 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Nov 25th
- Summary for Week Ending Nov 23rd
- Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic on pace for Record High, Convention Attendance Lags
- ATA Trucking Index declines sharply in October, Impacted by Hurricane Sandy
- Q3 GDP: Here come the upward revisions
- LA area Port Traffic: Inbound Traffic up in October
- Irwin: "Five economic trends to be thankful for"
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 3.0% Year-over-year for September
- Europe Summit Update
- Thursday: Happy Thanksgiving!
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 1.5% in September
- Business Insider Interview
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in October, Highest in Two Years
- Final November Consumer Sentiment at 82.7, MarkIt Flash PMI shows Improvement in Manufacturing
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 410,000
- MBA: Purchase Mortgage Applications increase, Refinance Applications decrease
- Zillow: House Prices increased 4.7% Year-over-year in October
- Wednesday: Unemployment claims, Consumer sentiment
- WaPo: Price-to-rent ratio for Certain Cities
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales
- Bernanke: "The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy"
- State Unemployment Rates decreased in 37 States in October
- Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family
- Housing Starts increased to 894 thousand SAAR in October
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Bernanke on Economy and Policy
- Existing Home Sales: The Increase in Conventional Sales
- Early: Housing Forecasts for 2013
- Existing Home Sales: A Solid Report
- NAHB Builder Confidence increases in November, Highest since May 2006
- Existing Home Sales in October: 4.79 million SAAR, 5.4 months of supply
- LA Times: "Most aid from mortgage settlement in California going to short sales"
- Monday: Existing Home Sales, Homebuilder Confidence
- Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in October
- Percent of Mortgage Seriously Delinquent over time, Selected States
- Serious Mortgage Delinquencies and In-Foreclosure by State
- California: Unemployment Rate falls to 10.1% in October, Payroll jobs increase 45,800
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 857 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Nov 18th
- Summary for Week Ending Nov 16th
- Lawler: Early Read on October Existing Home Sales
- Bank Failure #50 in 2012: Hometown Community Bank, Braselton, Georgia
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 2.3% year-over-year in September
- 2012 FHA Actuarial Review Press Release and Report
- Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type in Q3
- Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in October due to Hurricane Sandy, Capacity Utilization decreased
- Friday: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
- 2012 FHA Actuarial Review Released: Negative $13.5 Billion economic value
- Key Measures show low inflation in October
- Bernanke suggests Mortgage Lending Standards are "Overly Tight", "Pendulum has swung too far"
- Q3 MBA National Delinquency Survey Graph and Comments
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decreased in Q3
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased sharply to 439,000
- Zillow: 1.3 million fewer U.S. homeowners were in negative equity in Q3
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, MBA Mortgage Delinquency Survey, Bernanke and much more
- WSJ: FHA Close to Exhausting Reserves
- FOMC Minutes: "Participants generally favored" Thresholds
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 17% year-over-year in October
- Retail Sales declined 0.3% in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications rebound after Hurricane Sandy, Mortgage Rates fall to Record Low
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, FOMC Minutes
- Fiscal Slope: Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
- DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales increase in October
- Fiscal Slope: 2 Million to Lose Emergency Unemployment Benefits
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases slightly in October
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in October
- Lawler on Builder Results
- A few more thoughts on Fiscal Agreement
- Merrill Lynch Revises up 2012 House Price Forecast to 5% increase
- Homebuilders D.R. Horton and Beazer Report Sales Increase
- Monday: Veterans Day
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in October
- Sacramento October House Sales: Conventional Sales up 55% year-over-year
- Chicago Fed Letter: "Detecting early signs of financial instability"
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 860 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Nov 11th
- Summary for Week Ending Nov 9th
- Las Vegas Real Estate: Sales increase slightly in October
- The Recession Probability Chart
- A few thoughts on Fiscal Agreement
- Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment increases to 84.9
- Friday: Consumer sentiment
- New CBO report on "Fiscal Cliff"
- Lawler: REO inventory of "the F's" and PLS
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rates increased in September
- NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Increases in Q3
- Trade Deficit declined in September to $41.5 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 355,000
- Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
- Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO inventory declines in Q3
- Lawler on Freddie Mac Results
- Bankruptcy Filings declined 14% in Fiscal 2012
- Hurricane Sandy: Impact on "Near-Term Economic Activity"
- MBA: Hurricane Sandy Leads to Decrease in Mortgage Applications
- Election Day
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in September
- CoreLogic: House Price Index declined seasonally in September, Up 5.0% Year-over-year
- BLS: Job Openings "essentially unchanged" in September, Up year-over-year
- Greece Update
- Tuesday: Presidential Election
- Retailers expect solid Holiday Season
- Housing: Inventory down sharply in early November, Impacted by Hurricane Sandy
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in October
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreases in October
- Gasoline Prices down 30 cents over last month
- Monday: ISM Service Index
- Update: Further Discussion on Labor Force Participation Rate
- Retail: Seasonal Hiring vs. Retail Sales
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 861 Institutions
- Summary for Week Ending Nov 2nd
- Schedule for Week of Nov 4th
- Bank Failures #48 and 49 in 2012
- Solid Seasonal Retail Hiring, Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Employment: An encouraging report (also more graphs)
- October Employment Report: 171,000 Jobs, 7.9% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Fannie Mae Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Freddie Mac rate increases
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.3 million annual rate in October
- Q3 2012 GDP Details: Office and Mall Investment very low, Single Family investment increases
- Construction Spending increased in September
- ISM Manufacturing index increased slightly in October to 51.7
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 363,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 158,000 in October
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Auto Sales, ISM Mfg
October 2012
- Restaurant Performance Index declined in September
- NMHC Apartment Survey: Market Conditions Tighten, Growth Rate Moderates
- Fed: Some domestic banks "reported easing standards", Many banks seeing "strengthening of demand"
- CoreLogic: 57,000 Completed Foreclosures in September
- Chicago PMI: Activity "Idled"
- MBA:Refinance Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Markets Open, Chicago PMI, Delayed Surveys
- HVS: Q3 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Update: House Price Seasonality
- House Price Comments, Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 2.0% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- Wells Fargo raises Housing Forecasts for 2013 and 2014
- Update: Employment Report expected on Friday
- No Decision yet on delaying October Jobs Report
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity expands slowly in October
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in September, Spending increased 0.8%
- Monday: Personal Income and Spending, Senior Loan Officer Survey
- Sandy: D.C. Government Offices closed to Public, NYSE Trading Floor Closed
- The S&P 500 change following Presidential Elections
- Some "Principal Relief" on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Loans
- Schedule for Week of Oct 28th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 864 Institutions
- Summary for Week Ending Oct 26th
- Report: Bailout Costs for Fannie and Freddie expected to decline
- Bank Failure #47: NOVA Bank, Berwyn, Pennsylvania
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to show 1.7% Year-over-year increase for August
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.2% in August
- Comments on Q3 GDP and Investment
- Final October Consumer Sentiment at 82.6
- Real GDP increased 2.0% annual rate in Q3
- Friday: Q3 GDP
- Lawler: Home Builders: On Balance, Strong Results
- Housing: What Numbers Matter (Part 2)
- Misc: Pending Home Sales index increases slightly, KC Mfg Index contracts, Remodeling increases
- Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Improved in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 369,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales
- Updates to the ADP Employment Report
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in September
- FOMC Statement: "Economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace"
- New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales at 389,000 SAAR in September
- MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, FOMC Announcement
- Update: REO by State and Owner Occupied Units by State
- Lawler: Estimated REO Inventories by State
- ATA Trucking Index increases in September
- Fed: State Coincident Indexes in September show improvement
- Richmod Fed Mfg Survey indicates contraction in October
- Bank of Spain: Recession Continues, Deficit to Increase
- Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies increased sharply in September, Percent in foreclosure process lowest in 2 years
- FOMC Preview
- "The US bright spot"
- Sunday Night Futures
- Gasoline Prices down 8 cents over last 2 weeks
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.2% in August
- On Greece: More Austerity, More Recession, More Extremism
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 865 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Oct 21st
- Summary for Week Ending Oct 19th
- Bank Failure #46 in 2012: Excel Bank, Sedalia, Missouri
- Bank Failure #45: First East Side Savings Bank, Tamarac, Florida
- Bank Failure #44 in 2012: GulfSouth Private Bank, Destin, Florida
- Lawler: Comments on the Existing Home Sales Report
- State Unemployment Rates decreased in 41 States in September
- Existing Home Sales: A few comments and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in September: 4.75 million SAAR, 5.9 months
- Report: Seasonal Retail Hiring to be about the same as in 2011
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Low Mortgage Rates and Refinance Activity
- Downside Risks
- Philly Fed: "modest improvement" in Region’s manufacturing sector
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase sharply to 388,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- LA area Port Traffic: Moving Sideways
- DataQuick: California Foreclosure Activity Lowest Since Early 2007
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in September
- Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family
- Housing Starts increased sharply to 872 thousand SAAR in September
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase activity highest since June
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
- The HARP Refinance Boom Continued in August
- Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales
- Key Measures show low inflation in September
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 17.8% year-over-year in September
- NAHB Builder Confidence increases in October, Highest since June 2006
- Industrial Production increased 0.4% in September, Capacity Utilization increased
- BLS: CPI increases 0.6% in September, Core CPI 0.1%, Cost-Of-Living Adjustment about 1.66%
- Tuesday: CPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence
- Sacramento September House Sales: Percentage of distressed sales lowest in years
- The Housing Bottom and the Unemployment Rate
- Correction on Mortgage Modifications
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 0.3% in August
- Retail Sales increased 1.1% in September
- Monday: Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg Survey
- The recovery in U.S. Heavy Truck Sales
- Zillow Housing Forum and The Bearish View
- Bernanke: On the international impact of US accommodative Monetary Policy
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 872 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Oct 14th
- Summary for Week Ending Oct 12th
- Consumer Sentiment Graph
- Alphaville: A Grexit Delayed
- Misc: Consumer Sentiment increases to 83.1, JPMorgan on Housing
- BLS: Producer Prices increased 1.1% in September
- Friday: PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- Redfin: House prices up 5% Year-over-year in September
- RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity Drops to 5-Year Low in September
- Trade Deficit increased in August to $44.2 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declined sharply to 339,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increase in August
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity "expanded modestly", Residential real estate showed "widespread improvement"
- Further Discussion on Labor Force Participation Rate
- BLS: Job Openings "essentially unchanged" in August, Up year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase activity highest since June
- Wednesday: Beige Book, JOLTS
- Lawler: "Distressed" home sales shares in Reno, Vegas, and Phoenix
- Las Vegas September Real Estate: Sales decline, Inventory down year-over-year
- Fannie Mae: Consumer Attitudes on Housing continues to gradually Improve
- CoreLogic: Existing Home Shadow Inventory declines 10% year-over-year
- Get the Lead Out Update
- Lawler: Discussion of recent jump in House Listings in Phoenix
- Understanding the Decline in the Participation Rate
- Q2 2012: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal strongly negative
- Greece, Troika talks to resume later
- Sunday Night Futures
- More Europe
- Employment: A decline in the participation rate was expected due to the aging population
- Europe: Merkel Visits Greece on Tuesday and a few key dates
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 873 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Oct 7th
- Summary for Week Ending Oct 5th
- Gasoline Prices surge in California due to Refinery Problems
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in September
- Employment: Somewhat Better (also more graphs)
- September Employment Report: 114,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Employment Situation Preview
- FOMC Minutes: "Most participants agreed numerical thresholds could be useful"
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate declines in Q3, Strip Mall vacancy rate unchanged
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 367,000
- Thursday: Mall Vacancy Rate, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Minutes
- U.S. Births Decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2011
- LPS: Mortgage prepayment rates highest since 2005
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate declined slightly to 4.6% in Q3, More Supply coming in 2013
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases in September
- ADP: Private Employment increased 162,000 in September
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications increases sharply, Highest Since 2009
- Wednesday: Apartment Vacancy Rate, ISM Service Index, ADP Employment
- Housing: Inventory down 21% year-over-year in early October
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.96 million annual rate in September, Highest since Feb 2008
- Auto Sales: Small Car Sales Strong
- Sam Zell's Poor Forecasting Record
- CoreLogic: House Price Index increased in August, Up 4.6% Year-over-year
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q3 to 17.1%
- Tuesday: Office Vacancy Rate, Auto Sales
- Lawler: Some Home Builder Results
- Bernanke: "Five Questions about the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy"
- Construction Spending decreased in August
- ISM Manufacturing index increases in September to 51.5
- Sunday Night Futures: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Bernanke Speech
September 2012
- Analysis: Mark Zandi wrong about housing tax credit
- Gasoline Prices down 8 cents over last 2 weeks
- Unofficial Problem Bank List and Quarterly Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of Sept 30th
- Summary for Week Ending Sept 28th
- Bank Failure #43 in 2012: First United Bank, Crete, Illinois
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency rates declined in August
- Restaurant Performance Index increases in August
- Misc: Chicago PMI declines, Consumer Sentiment in September at 78.3
- Personal Income increased 0.1% in August, Spending increased 0.5%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI
- Freddie Mac: Record Low Mortgage Rates
- Two Reasons to expect Economic Growth to Increase
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows 386,000 additional jobs
- Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "slowed somewhat" in September
- NAR: Pending home sales index declined 2.6% in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 359,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, GDP
- New Home Prices: Average Highest since 2008
- New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales at 373,000 SAAR in August
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Activity increases as mortgage rates fall to new survey lows
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 0.3% in July
- Misc: Richmod Fed Mfg Survey Improves, Consumer Confidence increases
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes in August show weakness
- House Price Comments, Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 1.2% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: House Prices
- Tim Duy: "Policy is effective even in the aftermath of a financial crisis"
- Fed's Williams: Economic Outlook
- Employment Losses: Comparing Financial Crises
- Dallas Fed: Texas factory activity increased in September
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies decreased in August
- Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Weakened in August
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: House Prices will decline month-to-month Seasonally later in 2012
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 878 Institutions
- Goldman Estimate: QE3 could be $1.2 to $2.0 Trillion
- Summary for Week Ending Sept 21st
- Schedule for Week of Sept 23rd
- Sheila Bair: Former BofA CEO considered a "country bumpkin"
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to show 1.6% Year-over-year increase for July
- State Unemployment Rates increased in 26 States in August
- Over There: Greek and Spanish Aid
- Friday: State Employment Report
- Lawler: ACS 2011: Big Shift to Rental Market
- The Trillion Dollar Bear
- Fed's Q2 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1 Trillion from Peak
- Philly Fed "Region’s manufacturing sector has steadied"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 382,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
- Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows slight expansion in August
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in August: 4.82 million SAAR, 6.1 months of supply
- Housing Starts increased to 750 thousand in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease, Mortgage Rates decline to Survey Lows
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales
- Report: Saudi offers more oil, Gasoline prices still near highs
- Update: The Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Tax Break
- Mortgage Lending Declined in 2011, FHA share declined to 31%
- NAHB Builder Confidence increases in September, Highest since June 2006
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 18.7% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Homebuilder Confidence Survey
- Lawler: Early Read: Decent Bounce in Existing Home Sales in August
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports and Exports down YoY in August
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 0.8% in July
- NY Fed Empire State Mfg Index declines in September
- Sunday Night Futures
- QE3 and the Residential Investment Transmission Mechanism
- Housing: Year over Year change in Asking Prices
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 886 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Sept 16th
- Summary for Week Ending Sept 14th
- Fiscal Cliff: Goldman note and Merle Hazard
- Bank Failure #42 in 2012: Truman Bank, Saint Louis, Missouri
- August Update: Early Look at 2013 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments indicates 1.4% increase
- Key Measures show slowing inflation in August
- Consumer Sentiment increases in September to 79.2
- Industrial Production declined 1.2% in August, Capacity Utilization decreased
- Retail Sales increased 0.9% in August
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, CPI
- Analysis: Bernanke Delivered
- FOMC Projections and Bernanke Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: QE3 $40 Billion per Month, Extend Guidance to mid-2015
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 382,000
- Thursday: FOMC Meeting, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Projections Preview
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in August
- Shiller on House Prices
- CoreLogic: Negative Equity Decreases in Q2 2012
- MBA: Mortgage Applications increase, might be distorted by Holiday adjustment
- Wednesday: iPhone 5
- Sacramento August House Sales: Percentage of distressed sales lowest in years
- Lawler: Where has the increase in the number of renters of Single Family homes come from?
- QE Timeline Update
- Las Vegas August Real Estate: Sales decline, Inventory down sharply year-over-year
- BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in July
- Trade Deficit at $42.0 Billion in July
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings
- Employment Graphs: Construction Employment, Unemployment by Education
- WSJ: UBS expects the Fed to announce QE3 this week
- Alphaville: 'German domino theory and book-cooking'
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquencies decreased slightly in July
- Sunday Night Futures
- Employment Report Graphs: Participation Rate, Duration of Unemployment and Diffusion Indexes
- LA Times: Boom Time in Bakersfield
- Analysis: I expect QE3 on Sept 13th
- Schedule for Week of Sept 9th
- Summary for Week Ending Sept 7th
- Bank Failure #41 in 2012: First Commercial Bank, Bloomington, Minnesota
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in August, Building related commodities were up
- Market Update
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.7% in June
- Employment: Another Weak Report (more graphs)
- August Employment Report: 96,000 Jobs, 8.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- A Draghi Kind of Day
- Employment Situation Preview
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases in August
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 365,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 201,000 in August
- Thursday: Draghi, Unemployment Claims, ADP, ISM Services
- Lawler: Single Family Rental Market: Surging, But by How Much?
- Bloomberg: Merkel Said to Tell Lawmakers She Supports Draghi and Weidmann
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in August, Rent increases slow
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday Preview
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.5 million annual rate in August
- Housing: Inventory down 23% year-over-year in early September
- Construction Spending decreased in July
- ISM Manufacturing index decreases slightly in August to 49.6
- CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in July, Up 3.8% Year-over-year
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg Index, Auto Sales, Construction Spending
- WSJ: ECB's Draghi hints at Short Term Bond Buying
- ECB Meeting on Thursday: Expectations are for a Rate Cut, no Bond buying yet
- Winners: August Economic Prediction Contest
- GDP and Employment drag from State and Local Governments
- Hotel Occupancy Rate above pre-recession levels
- Restaurant Performance Index declines in July
- WSJ interview with Fed's Lockhart: Next Fed action could be a "package" of easing
- Schedule for Week of Sept 2nd
- Summary for Week Ending August 31st
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 891 Institutions
August 2012
- Two more reviews of Bernanke's Speech: Weak Labor Market "a grave concern"
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies decreased in July
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency rates declined in July
- Analysis: Bernanke Clears the way for QE3 in September
- Bernanke: Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis
- Chicago PMI declines to 53.0
- Friday: Bernanke, Bernanke, Bernanke
- Lawler: On the relationship between pending home sales and closed sales
- WSJ: Bernanke Jackson Hole Speech Preview
- Forecasts: Light Vehicle Sales expected to increase in August
- Kansas City Fed: "Moderate" growth in Regional Manufacturing Activity in August
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in July, Spending increased 0.4%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 374,000
- Thursday: Personal Income for July, Weekly Unemployment Claims
- ATA Trucking index unchanged in July
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased "gradually", Residential real estate shows "signs of improvement"
- Fed: Consumer Deleveraging Continued in Q2
- NAR: Pending home sales index increased 2.4% in July
- Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 1.7% Annualized
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Activity declines
- Wednesday: Q2 GDP update, Pending Home Sales, Beige Book
- Housing: Two Bearish Views on House Prices and Foreclosures
- FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks, REO Declines; Total REO Declines in Q2
- House Price Comments, Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 0.5% year-over-year in June
- Report: ECB President Draghi to Skip Jackson Hole
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Price index
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.4% in June
- Fed's Pianalto discusses Benefits and Costs of QE3
- Dallas Fed: "Growth Slows" in August Regional Manufacturing Activity
- Fed's Evans supports Open-Ended QE
- Sunday Night Futures:Isaac, ECB and Fed
- "Serial Refinancers" and Percent of Refinance Loans with Cash Out
- Zillow: House Prices increased 1.2% Year-over-year in July
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 898 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Aug 26th
- Summary for Week ending August 24th
- Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to show small Year-over-year increase for June
- Lawler: Updated Distressed Home Sales Share Table
- Merkel and Samaras Press Conference
- BLS: Displaced Workers Summary
- Durable Goods orders increase 4.2% in July
- Friday: Durable Goods, Europe, and requesting a favor
- Misc: Negative Equity declines, FHFA house prices increase, Flash PMI
- New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales increase in July to 372,000 Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 372,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Weekly Unemployment Claims
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index Downturn Moderates as Negative Conditions Continue in July
- FOMC Minutes: Discussion of policy tools the FOMC "might employ"
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in July: 4.47 million SAAR, 6.4 months of supply
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Activity declines as Rates Increase
- Wednesday: July Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
- FHFA: New Short Sale Guidelines for Fannie and Freddie
- Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Range and Current
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes in July show weakness
- German Official: "Small concessions are feasible" for Greece
- Research: Loan-to-income guidelines could have "forestalled much of the housing boom"
- Leonhardt: Possible Causes of the Income Slump
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 1.1% in June
- Mortgage Cramdowns: A Missed Opportunity
- Chicago Fed: Growth in Economic Activity below trend in July
- Sunday Night Futures
- Gasoline Prices up 30 cents over last 7 weeks
- Report: ECB Considering setting limits on Sovereign Debt Yields
- San Diego: "Fears recede of second crash from 'shadow inventory'"
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 899 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of August 19th
- Summary for Week Ending August 17th
- Preliminary: Fed manufacturing surveys and ISM index for August
- Lawler: Early Look At Existing Home Sales in July
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports and Exports down YoY in July
- State Unemployment Rates increased in 44 States in July
- Consumer Sentiment increases in August to 73.6
- Friday: Consumer sentiment, State Employment and Unemployment
- Comment on Housing, and Starts and Completions
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales
- Timiraos on Absorption of Excess Vacant Supply of Housing Inventory
- Housing Starts declined to 746 thousand in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 366,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Index
- Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2012 Dates
- July Update: Early Look at 2013 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments indicates 1% increase
- WSJ: Articles on Shadow Inventory
- Key Measures show slowing inflation in July
- NAHB Builder Confidence increases in August, Highest since February 2007
- Industrial Production increased 0.6% in July, Capacity Utilization increased
- NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates contraction, CPI unchanged in July
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 19.3% year-over-year in July
- Wednesday: CPI, Industrial Production, NY Fed Manufacturing Survey, Homebuilder Confidence
- DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales increase year-over-year in July
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Markets
- House Prices and a Foreclosure Supply Shock
- Retail Sales increased 0.8% in July
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declines in July
- Tuesday: July Retail Sales, PPI
- Sacramento: Percentage of REOs lowest in years in July
- Serious Mortgage Delinquencies and In-Foreclosure by State
- Europe Update: More Contraction
- Sunday Night Futures
- Europe and US: A few misc dates in September and October
- Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type
- Update: Real GDP Percent Change Graph, 1980-Q2 2012
- Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 900 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of August 12th
- Summary for Week ending Aug 10th
- WSJ: More Pain for Cities
- Comparing Housing Recoveries
- The Housing Bottom and the Unemployment Rate
- Import Price declined 0.6 percent in July
- NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Increases in Q2
- LPS: Mortgage Delinquencies increased slightly in June, HARP refinance activity increased
- Q2 MBA National Delinquency Survey Graph and Comments
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in Q2
- Trade Deficit declined in June to $42.9 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 361,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, Mortgage Delinquency Survey
- House Prices will decline month-to-month Seasonally later in 2012
- Las Vegas Real Estate: Sales decline, Inventory down sharply year-over-year
- Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO declined 18% Year-over-year
- Fannie Mae reports $5.1 Billion Net Income, Improvement due to increase in house prices, REO sales prices
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Monthly Economic Contest: New Login Added
- The economic impact of a slight increase in house prices
- Freddie Mac: Increase in Home Prices contributes to Lower Credit Losses
- Fed's Bernanke: Teacher Town Hall Meeting
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in July
- BLS: Job Openings increased in June
- CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in June, Up 2.5% Year-over-year
- WSJ: "Momentum building" for QE3
- Tuesday: JOLTs, Bernanke
- Housing: Inventory down 23% year-over-year in early August
- Fed: Some domestic banks "eased lending standards", seeing "stronger demand"
- Weekly Hotel Occupancy Rate above 75% for the first time since 2007
- Gasoline Prices up 20 cents over last 5 weeks
- Monday: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
- Payroll Employment and Seasonal Factors
- Update: Recovery Measures
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 899 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of August 5th
- Summary for Week ending Aug 3rd
- Bank Failure #40 in 2012: Waukegan Savings Bank, Waukegan, Illinois
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in July, Intermodal at Record Level
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases slightly, Employment index declines in July
- Employment: Another Fairly Weak Report (more graphs)
- July Employment Report: 163,000 Jobs, 8.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: July Employment Report, ISM Services
- The Gold Audit
- Employment Situation Preview
- Another measure of household formation and vacancy rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 365,000
- Thursday: ECB Meeting, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders
- Q2 2012 GDP Details: Office and Mall Investment increases slightly, Single Family investment increases
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.1 million annual rate in July
- FOMC Statement: "Economic activity decelerated", Takes no action
- Construction Spending in June: Private spending increases, Public Spending flat
- ISM Manufacturing index increases slightly in July to 49.8
- ADP: Private Employment increased 163,000 in July
- MBA: Refinance Activity Highest in Three Years
- Wednesday: FOMC announcement, ISM Mfg, Auto Sales and much more
July 2012
- Prediction Contest: July Winners, August Questions
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency rates declined in June
- Fannie, Freddie will not Participate in Principal Reduction Program
- Misc: Chicago PMI increases slightly, Consumer Confidence up, CoreLogic 60,000 Foreclosures in June
- House Price Comments, Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case Shiller: House Prices increased 2.2% in May
- Personal Income increased 0.5% in June, Spending decreased slightly
- FHFA Nears Decision on Debt Forgiveness, and Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- More FOMC Preview
- NMHC Apartment Survey: Market Conditions Tighten in Q2 2012
- Lawler on Manufactured Housing
- Dallas Fed: "Slower Growth" in July Regional Manufacturing Activity
- Europe Update
- Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
- FOMC Preview: QE3 now or later?
- When will the Case-Shiller house price index turn positive Year-over-year?
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 900 Institutions
- Lawler: Expect "significant" upward revisions for Q2 New Home Sales
- Schedule for Week of July 29th
- Summary for Week ending July 27th
- Zillow forecasts 1% Year-over-year decline for May Case-Shiller House Price index
- Bank Failure #39 in 2012: Jasper Banking Company, Jasper, Georgia
- HVS: Q2 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Bloomberg: Draghi to hold talks with Bundesbank on ECB Bond Purchases
- Q2 GDP: Comments and Investment
- Final July Consumer Sentiment at 72.3
- Real GDP increased 1.5% annual rate in Q2
- Friday: GDP, Consumer Sentiment
- Record Low Mortgage Rates and Increasing Refinance Activity
- Tim Duy: Draghi finds the panic button. Maybe.
- Lawler on Builder Results
- Kansas City Fed: "Modest" Growth in Regional Manufacturing Activity in July
- NAR: Pending home sales index decreased 1.4% in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 353,000
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, KC Manufacturing Index
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies increased in June
- ATA Trucking index increased in June
- Lawler on New Home Sales and Revisions
- Some comments on New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales declined in June to 350,000 Annual Rate
- MBA: Refinance Activity Highest since 2009
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- WSJ: Fed Moving Closer to more Accommodation
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes show weakness
- Misc: FHFA house prices increase 0.8%, Richmond Fed index declines sharply, UPS Comments
- Markit Flash PMI falls to 51.8
- Zillow: "Housing Market Turns Corner"
- Tuesday: Flash PMI, Richmond Fed Survey, FHFA House Prices
- DataQuick: California Foreclosure Activity Lowest in Five Years
- Leonhardt: "A Closer Look at Middle-Class Decline"
- Spain, Italy ban some short selling
- Chicago Fed: Growth in Economic Activity below trend in June
- Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- WSJ: "As Homes Go, So Do Pickups"
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.3% in May
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 905 Institutions
- Bank makes $1 Million on Foreclosure
- Schedule for Week of July 22nd
- Summary for Week ending July 20th
- Bank Failure #38: Second Federal Savings and Loan Association of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
- Bank Failure #37 in 2012: Heartland Bank, Leawood, Kansas
- Bank Failures #34 - 36 in 2012: Florida and Georgia
- Report: Mortgage originations at large banks increased sharply in Q2
- State Unemployment Rates little changed in June
- Eurozone approves Spanish Bank Bailout, Bond Yields increase
- LA Times: "Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach building at furious pace"
- FNC: Residential Property Values increased 0.6% in May
- Misc: Philly Fed, Leading Indicators
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in June: 4.37 million SAAR, 6.6 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 386,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed, Unemployment Claims
- Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased at "modest to moderate" pace, Residential real estate "largely positive"
- August 1st QE3 Departure Date?
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows "drop in design activity" in June
- Housing Starts increased to 760 thousand in June, Highest since October 2008
- MBA: "Record Low Mortgage Rates Lead to Jump in Refinance Activity"
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book, more Bernanke
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- First Look at 2013 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Key Measures show slowing inflation in June
- NAHB Builder Confidence increases strongly in July, Highest since March 2007
- Bernanke: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Industrial Production increased 0.4% in June, Capacity Utilization increased
- BLS: CPI unchanged in June
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 19.4% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: Bernanke, CPI, Industrial Production, Builder Confidence
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports and Exports up YoY in June
- Report: HARP Refis increase signficantly
- Downward Revisions: Q2 GDP Tracking around 1.1%
- Earlier: Empire State Survey shows modest expansion in July
- Retail Sales decline 0.5% in June
- Monday: Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Survey
- Gasoline Prices: "Comparative stability"
- Fed's Lockhart on Monetary Policy
- NY Times: Possible Criminal Charges in LIBOR Scandal
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 912 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of July 15th
- Summary for Week ending July 13th
- Libor Scandal: Old Articles
- Bank Failure #33 in 2012: Glasgow Savings Bank, Glasgow, Missouri
- Market Update: More than a Lost Decade
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate declines in latest weekly survey
- Consumer Sentiment declines in July to 72.0
- PPI increases 0.1%, JPMorgan reports $4.4 billion CIO Loss
- Friday: JPMorgan Results, PPI, Consumer sentiment
- Foreclosure Report: California "Homebuyers should brace themselves for significantly less inventory next year"
- CoreLogic: Negative Equity Decreases in Q1 2012
- Redfin: House prices increased in June, Inventory declined
- Buffett: US Housing Picking Up, Rest of economy slowing down
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 350,000 due to onetime factors
- Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Import and Export Prices
- Lawler: Preliminary Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in June
- FOMC Minutes: Several Members noted "additional policy action could be warranted" if economy loses "momentum"
- WSJ: The U.S. Housing Bust Is Over
- Trade Deficit declines in May to $48.7 Billion
- MBA: Record low mortgage rates, Mortgage Purchase activity increases slightly
- Wednesday: Trade Balance, FOMC Minutes
- Sacramento: Percentage of Distressed House Sales lowest in years in June
- Foreclosure Supply and the Housing Market
- Las Vegas Real Estate: Inventory down sharply
- BLS: Job Openings increased in May
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declines in June
- Tuesday: Small Business Confidence, JOLTS
- Phoenix Housing: Sharp decline in Foreclosure Sales
- Q1 2012: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal strongly negative
- Fed's Williams: Unemployment above Target, Inflation below Target, QE3 "most effective tool"
- LPS: Mortgages in Foreclosure still near record high, Much higher in Judicial States
- Monday: LPS Mortgage Delinquency Report, Consumer Credit
- Fed Speak and a few Key Fed Dates
- Employment Report Graphs: Participation Rate, Duration of Unemployment and Diffusion Indexes
- Percent Job Losses: Great Recession and Great Depression
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 913 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of July 8th
- Summary for Week ending July 6th
- Bank Failure #32 in 2012: Montgomery Bank & Trust, Ailey, Georgia
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in June, Intermodal at Record Level
- Where are the construction jobs?
- Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q2
- Employment: Another Weak Report (more graphs)
- June Employment Report: 80,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- Consumer Bankruptcy filings Decrease 13 Percent in First Half of 2012
- Employment Situation Preview
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declines, indicates slower expansion in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 374,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 176,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease, Record Low Mortgage Rates
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 4.7% in Q2
- Thursday: ISM Service, ADP Employment, ECB, Unemployment Claims
- "The Handoff – Manufacuturing to Housing"
- Housing: Seriously Dude, Where's my inventory?
- Martin Wolf on Europe: A Step in the Right Direction
- House Prices: Goldman sort of Calls the Bottom
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.1 million annual rate in June
- Manufacturing vs. Housing
- FHFA: "Robust" Market Reponse to Bulk REO Pilot Program
- Trulia: Asking House Prices increased in June
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 17.2%
- Tuesday: Auto Sales, Factory Orders
- CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in May, Up 2.0% Year-over-year
- Construction Spending in May: Private spending increases, Public Spending declines
- ISM Manufacturing index declines in June to 49.7
- Eurozone Recession: Record Unemployment, Manufacturing Shrinks
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Housing: Investor Buying in Oakland
- Update: Recovery Measures
- June Contest Winners: A Tie!
June 2012
- On Europe
- Schedule for Week of July 1st
- Summary for Week ending June 29th
- Unofficial Problem Bank List declines to 917 Institutions, Quarterly Transition Matrix
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency rates declined in May
- Restaurant Performance Index declines in May, Still shows expansion
- CoreLogic: 63,000 completed foreclosures in May
- Consumer Sentiment declines in June to 73.2
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in May, Spending decreased slightly
- Tomorrow: Personal Income and Outlays for May, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment
- Europe: Growth Pact Update
- A QE Timeline
- Kansas City Fed: Growth in Regional Manufacturing Activity Slowed in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims mostly unchanged
- Tomorrow: Unemployment Claims, Q1 GDP (third estimate)
- Number of Cities with Increasing House Prices
- Lawler on Lennar: Net Home Orders Jump, Pricing Improves in “Most” Markets
- Merle Hazard: "Fiscal Cliff"
- Housing: Inventory and Negative Equity
- NAR: Pending home sales index increased 5.9% in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Look Ahead: Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- Misc: Richmond Fed Survey shows contraction, Consumer confidence declines
- House Prices to increase 10%?
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio
- Case Shiller: House Prices increased in April
- Look Ahead: Case-Shiller House Prices
- When will the Case-Shiller house price index turn positive Year-over-year?
- Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Surges" in June
- Home Sales Reports: What Matters
- New Home Sales increase in May to 369,000 Annual Rate
- Chicago Fed: Economic growth slower in May
- Look Ahead: New Home Sales
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 0.4% in April
- Housing: Jumbo Borrowers Trapped Underwater
- Gasoline Prices: $3 per gallon?
- Summary for Week ending June 22nd
- Schedule for Week of June 24th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 921 Institutions
- Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in April
- Reports: European Leaders to Push for €130 billion Stimulus
- Europe: Spain to make Official Aid Request Monday, ECB releases new Collateral Rules
- A Different Look at Inflation: MIT's Billion Price Project
- Residential Remodeling Index increases 2 percent in April
- Different Views on QE3 Timing
- Mortgage Rates: Another Week, Another Record Low
- Misc: Philly Fed, Leading Indicators, FHFA House Price index increases 0.8%
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in May: 4.55 million SAAR, 6.6 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims mostly unchanged, Four week average highest this year
- Look Ahead: Existing Home Sales
- Bernanke Paves the Way for QE3 on August 1st
- Census: Number of Shared Households increased 2.25 million from 2007 to 2010
- FOMC Projections and Bernanke Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: Continue Twist through end of Year
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index declines sharply in May
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies increased in May
- MBA: FHA Mortgage Refinance Applications increase sharply
- Look Ahead: Fed Day
- ATA Trucking index declined 0.7% in May
- Comments on Housing and Article on Yahoo
- BLS: Job Openings declined in April
- Housing Starts at 708 thousand in May, Single Family starts increase to 516 thousand
- Look Ahead: Housing Starts
- Report: Fed concerned about "Credit divide"
- Lawler: Fannie, Freddie Delinquency Rates and REO by State for March
- FNC: Residential Property Values increase 0.6% in April
- NAHB Builder Confidence increases slightly in June, Highest since May 2007
- Spanish Bond Yields above 7.25%
- Sunday Night: Asian Stocks and US Futures Up
- FOMC Preview: QE3 now or later?
- Report: Greece's New Democracy projected to win, Expected to form government
- Greece: Exit Polls show close voting
- Greece Election: Voting now, Polls close at Noon ET
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 919 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of June 17th
- Summary for Week ending June 15th
- David Rosenberg cracks me up!
- Bank Failures #29 - #31 in 2012
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
- LA area Port Traffic: Imports down YoY, Exports mostly unchanged in May
- State Unemployment Rates little changed in May
- Consumer Sentiment declines in June to 74.1
- Industrial Production down in May, Capacity Utilization declined
- NY Fed: Regional manufacturing activity "expanded slightly" in June Survey
- Look Ahead: Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment and more
- Greece: Election results expected at 2:30 PM ET Sunday, Unemployment Rate hits Record 22.6%
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate close to Pre-Recession Levels
- Key Measures show slowing inflation in May
- CoreLogic: Existing Home Shadow Inventory declines 15% year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 386,000
- Look Ahead: CPI, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Greece
- DataQuick: SoCal home sales up in May
- Tim Duy: "Is Anyone Answering the Phones at the ECB?"
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 20.1% year-over-year in May
- Redfin: House prices increased 2.2% Year-over-year in May
- Retail Sales decline 0.2% in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Reach Highest Level Since 2009
- Look Ahead: Retail Sales
- JPMorgan Provides example of "Orderly Liquidation" after a catastrophic loss
- European Crisis Commentary
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities
- Report: HARP 2 Refinancing activity increases
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "Stagnates" in May
- Look Ahead: Small Business Optimism Index, Import and Export Prices
- Sacramento: Percentage of Distressed House Sales lowest in years in May
- Fed Survey: From 2007 to 2010, Median Family income declined 7.7%, Median Net Worth declined 38.8%
- Gasoline Prices decline 16 cent over the past three weeks
- CoreLogic: Impact of negative equity on the Supply of Unsold Homes
- Sunday Night: Asian Stocks and US Futures Up
- LA Times: "Shortage of homes for sale creates fierce competition"
- China economic data "mixed"
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 923 Institutions
- Spain to ask EU for Bank Bailout
- Schedule for Week of June 10th
- Report: Euro zone discussing €100 billion aid for Spanish Banks
- Summary for Week Ending June 8th
- IMF reports Spanish Banks need €37 billion; China CPI up 3.0%
- Bank Failures #26 to #28 in 2012
- Bank Failure #25 in 2012: First Capital Bank, Kingfisher, Oklahoma
- Las Vegas House sales up YoY in May, Inventory down sharply
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in May
- Trade Deficit declines in April to $50.1 Billion
- Look Ahead: Trade Deficit, China data on Saturday
- Lower Costs on FHA's Streamline Refinance Program are effective on June 11th
- Record Low Mortgage Rates and Increasing Refinance Activity
- Fed's Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Real Estate Value increased in Q1
- Bernanke Senate Testimony: "Prepared to take action as needed"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 377,000
- Look Ahead: Bernanke, Weekly unemployment claims, Q1 Flow of Funds
- Fed's Yellen: "Scope remains for further policy accommodation"
- Housing Inventory and Price Expectations
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased at "moderate" pace, Residential real estate "activity improved"
- WSJ: ECB's Draghi see "heightened risks", Takes no action
- MBA: Refinance Activity increases as Mortgage Rates fall to New Record Low
- Look Ahead
- Comparing Housing Recoveries
- Housing: Dude, Where's my inventory?
- Trulia: Asking House Prices Unchanged in May
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightly faster expansion in May
- CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in April, Up 1.1% Year-over-year
- WSJ: Spain Warns of Losing Access to Markets for Borrowing
- Look Ahead: ISM non-manufacturing index
- The Misfiring Engine of Recovery
- G7 Emergency Talks on Tuesday
- BIS Quarterly Review: Global Banks Cut Lending
- Gasoline prices declining
- Sunday Night Futures
- Sluggish Growth and Payroll Employment: An Update
- Europe: A few Key Dates this Month
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 927 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of June 3rd
- Summary for Week Ending June 1st
- Employment Report Graphs: Construction, Duration of Unemployment and Diffusion Indexes
- Update: State and Local Government Job Losses
- Fannie Mae Serious Delinquency rate declined in April, Freddie Mac unchanged
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in April, Spending 0.3%
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 13.8 million annual rate in May
- Construction Spending in April: Private spending increases, Public Spending declines
- May Employment Summary and Discussion
- ISM Manufacturing index declines in May to 53.5
- May Employment Report: 69,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate
- May Contest Winners and Look Ahead
May 2012
- LPS: Foreclosures Sales declined in April, FHA foreclosure starts increased sharply
- Employment Situation Preview
- NY Fed: Consumer Deleveraging Continued in Q1, but Student Loan Debt Continued to Grow
- Chicago PMI declines to 52.7
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 383,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 133,000 in May
- Look Ahead: GDP, ADP Employment, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI
- Lawler: Pending Home Sales and updated Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities
- House Prices: The Turning Point
- CoreLogic: 66,000 completed foreclosures in April
- NAR: Pending home sales index declined 5.5% in April
- MBA: Mortgage Rates Drop to New Survey Lows
- Case-Shiller Seasonal Factors
- House Prices: From "bold call" to consensus in four months
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expands but New Orders Remain Flat
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio at late '90s Levels
- Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in March NSA
- Extended Unemployment Benefits ending for many long term unemployed
- Monday Night Futures
- Number of Cities with Increasing House Prices
- Borrowing costs increase for Spain and Italy
- Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 931 Institutions
- A few Employment Report Forecasts
- New home construction picks up in Las Vegas
- Conviction: Fraud for Housing
- Schedule for Week of May 27th
- Summary for Week of May 25th
- Friday Night Humor: Ivy League Hustle
- Lawler: Q1 REO inventory of "the F's", PLS, and FDIC-insured institutions combined down about 20% from a year ago
- More Pain in Spain
- Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in March, Zillow index shows prices increased in April
- Consumer Sentiment increases in May to 79.3
- Tim Duy: "Is QE3 Just Around the Corner?"
- European Gloom and Look Ahead: Consumer sentiment
- Record Low Mortgage Rates and Refinance Activity
- Lawler: Post-Census Study of Census 2010
- Misc: Kansas City Fed manufacturing index "Rebounds", "Flash PMI" shows slower expansion, Mortgage Rates at record low
- FDIC-insured institutions’ 1-4 Family Real Estate Owned (REO) decreased in Q1
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims essentially unchanged at 370,000
- Grexit Update and Look Ahead: Durable Goods, Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Kolko: Dissecting the House Price Indices
- FHFA: Quarterly House Price Index shows first year-over-year gain since 2007
- New Home Sales Comments
- New Home Sales increase in April to 343,000 Annual Rate
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance activity increases, Mortgage Rates at Record Low
- Look Ahead: New Home Sales
- ATA Trucking index declined 1.1% in April
- Lawler: Comments on Existing home sales and FHA REO
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in April: 4.62 million SAAR, 6.6 months of supply
- New Push for Eurozone Bonds
- Look Ahead: Existing Home Sales
- LPS: Mortgage delinquencies increased slightly in April
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% in March
- FNC: Residential Property Values increase 0.5% in March
- Chicago Fed: Economic growth near historical trend in April
- Sunday Night Futures
- Comment: We need more and better data, not less
- The Real Estate Agent Bust
- Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 928 Institutions
- Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales
- Schedule for Week of May 20th
- Summary for Week of May 18th
- Van Rompuy Statement: "Stay the course" in Europe, "Pro-growth agenda" in June
- Bank Failure #24 in 2012: Alabama Trust Bank
- Grexit Update
- State Unemployment Rates decline in 37 states in April
- Hotels: RevPAR increases 4.5% compared to same week in 2011
- Misc: Record Low Mortgage Rates, Spanish Banks downgraded, and more
- Greece: Election is June 17th
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
- RealtyTrac: Foreclosure activity declined in April
- Philly Fed: Regional manufacturing activity contracted in May Survey
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 370,000
- Look Ahead: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey
- Some thoughts on Apartments and Rents
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates contraction in April
- Report: Housing Inventory declines 18.9% year-over-year
- FOMC Minutes: "Several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary" if economy slows
- Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q1
- Industrial Production up in April, Capacity Utilization increases
- Housing Starts increase to 717,000 in April
- Look Ahead: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Mortgage Delinquencies, FOMC Minutes
- Misc: NY Fed Manufacturing Survey, Remodeling Index
- Lawler: Update Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities
- Key Measures of Inflation in April
- NAHB Builder Confidence increases in May, Highest since May 2007
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in April
- Look Ahead: Retail sales, CPI, Home Builder Confidence, NY Fed Manufacturing Survey
- Update on Gasoline Prices: West Coast Refinery Problems
- Housing: The Return of Multiple Offers
- Oil and Gasoline Prices, and the Reversal of Seaway Pipeline
- Spanish and Italian Bond Yields Increase
- Look Ahead: Sunday Night Futures
- Greek Exit: Looking more likely
- Europe Update: Next Greek Election, Euro-area GDP expected to show recession
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 924 Institutions
- Gov. Brown: California Deficit increases to $16 Billion
- Schedule for Week of May 13th
- Summary for Week of May 11th
- Bookies stop taking bets on Greece leaving the euro
- Lawler: Fannie SF REO Inventory: Total vs. “Listed/Available for Sale”
- Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic at New High, Convention Attendance Lags
- Consumer Sentiment increases in May to 77.8
- PPI declines 0.2% in April, Core PPI increased 0.2%
- Look Ahead: PPI, Consumer Sentiment
- LPS: House Price Index increased 0.2% in February
- JPM: $2 billion trading loss on synthetic credit position
- Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities
- Sacramento: Percentage of Distressed House Sales increases slightly in April
- NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Increases
- Trade Deficit increased in March to $51.8 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 367,000
- Look Ahead: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- Greece Updates: Policy Failure
- Lawler: REO inventory of "the F's" and PLS
- Fannie Mae reports $2.7 billion in income, REO inventory declines in Q1 2012
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase activity increased, Record Low Mortgage Rates
- Look Ahead: Light Economic Day, Articles on Government Employment
- Las Vegas House sales up slightly YoY in April, Inventory down sharply
- Greece: New Elections Likely, Odds increase for Eurozone Exit
- The economic impact of stabilizing house prices?
- BLS: Job Openings increased in March
- CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in March, Down 0.6% Year-over-year
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in April
- BofA Starts Settlement related Principal Reduction Program
- Look Ahead: Small Business Optimism Index, Job Openings
- The Declining Participation Rate
- Freddie Mac: Lower REO Expense in Q1 due to "stabilizing home prices in certain geographical areas"
- Housing: Inventory declines 21% year-over-year in early May
- Former Housing Bear Lewis Ranieri calls housing bottom
- Update: Gasoline Prices down 15 cents year-over-year
- Look Ahead: Futures Down
- "Rents soar"
- Exit Polls: Hollande Wins French Runoff, Greek vote split
- Mish on "Rentership" and House Prices
- Elections: France and Greece
- France and Greece Election Times
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in April
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 925 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of May 6th
- Summary for Week ending May 4th
- Bank Failure #23 in 2012: Security Bank, National Association, North Lauderdale, Florida
- More Graphs: Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Another Housing Bear leaves the Woods
- Graph: U.S. Housing Market Summary
- April Employment Summary and Discussion
- April Employment Report: 115,000 Jobs, 8.1% Unemployment Rate
- Look Ahead: April Employment Report, European Elections
- Freddie Mac: Fixed Mortgage Rates Average New All-Time Record Lows
- NFIB: Small Business hiring was weak in April, "Outlook improves"
- Employment Situation Preview
- Trulia on Houses: Asking Prices increase slightly Year-over-year in April
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 365,000
- Look Ahead: Unemployment Claims, ISM Services, and ECB
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal update
- Lawler: Update on Home Builder Sales
- Over There: Euro zone unemployment rate rises to 10.9%
- LPS: March Foreclosure Starts increase, Foreclosure Sales lowest since December 2010
- ADP: Private Employment increased 119,000 in April
- New Short Sales Guidelines from Fannie and Freddie
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.42 million annual rate in April
- Construction Spending increases slightly in March
- ISM Manufacturing index indicates faster expansion in April
- CoreLogic: 69,000 completed foreclosures in March 2012
- Chrysler: U.S. April sales increased 20% year-over-year
- Contest Questions and April Winner
April 2012
- Restaurant Performance Index increases in March
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency rates declined in March
- Fed: On net, Domestic Banks eased their lending standards and experienced stronger demand over the last 3 months
- Q1 2012 GDP Details: Office and Mall Investment falls to record low, Single Family investment increases
- HVS: Q1 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Chicago PMI declines to 56.2
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in March, Spending 0.3%
- Housing: The "Long Bottom"
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 930 Institutions
- Recovery Measures
- The upward slope of Real House Prices
- Schedule for Week of April 29th
- Summary for Week ending April 27th
- Lack of Demand
- Bank Failure #22: Palm Desert National Bank, Palm Desert, California
- Bank Failures #18 through #21 in 2012
- WSJ on Housing: "Bidding wars are back"
- Q1 GDP: Comments and Investment
- Consumer Sentiment increases slightly in April to 76.4
- Real GDP increased 2.2% annual rate in Q1
- "Private money coming back into the housing finance market"
- Contest Question: Will real GDP be above or below consensus?
- Lawler: Builder Reports Exceed Expectations
- NMHC Apartment Survey: Market Conditions Tighten in Q1 2012
- Misc: Kansas City Fed index weakens, Mortgage Rates near record low, Radar Logic house prices
- NAR: Pending home sales index increased in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 388,000
- RealtyTrac: Foreclosure activity mixed in Q1
- San Francisco Rents "On a tear"
- Housing Bottom Callers: Zelman, Thornberg
- FOMC Forecasts and Bernanke Press Conference
- FOMC Statement: Economy "expanding moderately"
- The Bottom for House Prices
- ATA Trucking index Increased 0.2% in March
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase activity increased slightly, Refinance activity declined, Record Low Mortgage Rates
- Misc: California 99ers Lose 20 Weeks, Richmond Fed index increases, FHFA House Prices increase year-over-year
- Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increased in March
- LPS: Percent of delinquent mortgage loans declined in March
- Comments on Housing and "Distressing Gap" Graph
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio at late '90s Levels
- New Home Sales in March at 328,000 Annual Rate
- Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in February NSA
- Two Convicted of Mortgage Fraud in San Diego
- Lawler: Early Builder Reports Point to “Pretty Decent” Spring Selling Season, Contest Questions
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.8% in February
- FNC: February Residential Property Values Down 0.8%
- Eurozone Worries Again
- Sunday Night Futures
- From the WSJ: Hilsenrath's FOMC Preview
- Housing Survey: Fewer "low ball" Offers in 2012
- FOMC Meeting Preview
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 939 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of April 22nd
- Summary for Week ending April 20th
- FT Alphaville: FOMC pre-preview
- Bank Failure #17 in 2012: Fort Lee Federal Savings Bank, FSB, Fort Lee, NJ
- Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in February
- Residential Investment and the Housing Industry Recovery
- State Unemployment Rates decline in 30 states in March
- Spanish 10 year bond yields near 6%
- State and Local Government Payroll Employment Stabilizing?
- Homeowner Financial Obligation Ratio near normal, Mortgage obligations still high
- Philly Fed: "Regional manufacturing activity expanded modestly" in April Survey
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in March: 4.48 million SAAR, 6.3 months of supply
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 386,000
- Some thoughts on housing and foreclosures
- Lawler: Evaluation of Gross Vacancy Rates From the 2010 Census Versus Current Surveys
- Local Home Builder: "Spring selling season is off to a great start"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates expansion in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease, Refinance activity increases
- New Short Sale timelines and HARP Updates
- DataQuick: Socal Home Sales increased slightly in March year-over-year
- Comments on the Housing Recovery and Starts and Completions
- Housing Misc: Short Sales surpass Foreclosures, Asking prices up, Inventory down year-over-year
- Industrial Production unchanged in March, Capacity Utilization declines
- Housing Starts decline in March
- LA area Port Traffic increases in March, Exports hit new record
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
- NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "improved modestly" in April
- Residential Remodeling Index increases 3% in February
- NAHB Builder Confidence declines in April
- Retail Sales increased 0.8% in March
- Europe: Sarkozy calls on ECB to support growth
- Krugman: "Insane in Spain"
- Lou Barnes on Boulder, Colorado Housing
- Percent Job Losses: Great Recession and Great Depression
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 944 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of April 15th
- Summary for Week ending April 13th
- More foreclosure thoughts: What's in a name?
- Lawler: Expect NAR to report a 3% Year-over-year increase in the Median Price for March
- BofA sues BofA in Foreclosure Filing: More "Robo foreclosure"?
- Bernanke: "Some Reflections on the Crisis and the Policy Response"
- Key Measures of Inflation in March
- Consumer Sentiment declines slightly in April to 75.7
- BLS: CPI increases 0.3% in March
- Freddie Mac: 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Hits New All-Time Record
- Analyst: Rising Rents "could tip the cost of housing in favor of ownership"
- Sacramento: Lowest percentage of Distressed House Sales in years
- Strategic Defaulters vs. Strategic Modifiers
- Trade Deficit declined in February to $46 Billion
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 380,000
- RealtyTrac: Q1 2012 Foreclosure Activity Lowest Since Q4 2007
- Fed's Yellen: Discusses "keeping the funds rate close to zero until late 2015"
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased at "modest to moderate" pace, Residential real estate "activity improved"
- Labor Force Participation Rate Projection Update
- MBA: Mortgage Applications decrease, Rates decline slightly
- "US mortgage and foreclosure law"
- Las Vegas House sales up slightly YoY in March, Inventory down sharply
- San Francisco Commercial Real Estate: First Spec Office Building since Recession
- BLS: Job Openings increased slightly in February
- Webcast: Speech by FHFA acting director Edward DeMarco
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index declined in March
- Bernanke: Fostering Financial Stability
- Update: Gasoline Prices
- Hamilton: Current economic conditions
- LPS: House Price Index declined 0.9% in January
- Sunday Night Futures and FHFA Speech on Tuesday
- More: Mall Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q1
- Housing Story: Owning vs. Renting
- HUD Secretary on Principal Reductions
- Unofficial Problem Bank List and Quarterly Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of April 8th
- Summary for Week ending April 6th
- Stand-up economist Yoram Bauman: S*** happens: the economics version
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in March
- Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Employment Summary and Discussion
- March Employment Report: 120,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate
- Reis: Strip Mall Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q1
- Existing Home Inventory declines 20% year-over-year in early April
- Federal Reserve Issues Statement on Rental of REOs
- Employment Situation Preview
- More: Office Vacancy Rate declines slightly to 17.2% in Q1
- Trulia announces new "mix adjusted" House Asking Price Monitor, Prices up 1.4% from Q4
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 357,000
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q1 to 17.2%
- Jamie Dimon's "Brain Freeze" and Comments on Housing
- FHFA's DeMarco: FHFA to make decision on GSE Principal Reductions this month
- More: Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 4.9% in Q1
- Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index increased 0.3% in March
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in March
- CoreLogic: House Price Index falls to new post-bubble low in February, Rate of decline slows
- ADP: Private Employment increased 209,000 in March
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 4.9% in Q1
- Lawler comments on FHA Single-Family Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund Quarterly Report to Congress
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.4 million annual rate in March
- FOMC Minutes: No Push for QE3
- Update on Possible GSE Principal Reductions
- LPS: February Foreclosure Starts and Sales Reversed Prior Month’s Increases
- Bloomberg article on House Prices
- Jim the Realtor: Multiple Offers at the low-to-mid end
- WaPo: Student Debt and Senior Citizens
- Wells Fargo on Housing: Better Days Ahead, Prices to bottom mid-year
- Construction Spending declines in February
- ISM Manufacturing index indicates slightly faster expansion in March
- Over There: Unemployment rate at new high in Euro Zone
- WaPo on Investors buying Foreclosures to Rent
- And the winner is ... me!
- McCulley: Monetary and Fiscal policy must be "irresponsible" in a liquidity trap
March 2012
- Personal Saving Rate and Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
- Schedule for Week of April 1st
- Summary for Week ending March 30th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 948 Institutions
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency rates declined in February
- Bank Failure #16 in 2012: Fidelity Bank, Dearborn, Michigan
- Restaurant Performance Index increases in February
- State Unemployment Rates "little changed" in February
- Misc: Chicago PMI declines to 62.2, Consumer Sentiment improves
- Personal Income increased 0.2% in February, Spending 0.8%
- Los Angeles Mayor to "lay off a large number of employees"
- Q4 GDP and GDI
- Bernanke: "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis" Part 4
- CoreLogic: Almost 65,000 completed foreclosures in February 2012
- Kansas City Fed: Growth in Manufacturing Activity Moderated Slightly in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 359,000
- Update: Gasoline Prices
- JPMorgan CEO on Housing
- The long term impact of unemployment
- Report: US, UK and France considering releasing Oil
- MBA: Refinance Applications Drop for Sixth Consecutive Week
- Update: Greek Election in late April or May
- Housing: Toll Brothers "Orders up significantly", "Best Spring season in five years"
- Bernanke Interview on ABC at 6:30 PM
- ATA Trucking index Increased 0.5% in February
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline to late '90s Levels
- Misc: Lennar reports 33% increase in orders, Richmond Fed survey shows slower Expansion, Consumer confidence declines
- Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in January
- House Prices and Lagged Data
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues in March
- Lawler on possible Fannie and Freddie Principal Reductions
- Comment: QE3 Remains Likely
- NAR: Pending home sales index decreases in February
- Chicago Fed: Economic Growth in February "near average"
- Bernanke: Labor Market "remain far from normal"
- Report: Germany to allow increase to "Firewall"
- Update on HARP 2
- ProPublica: Fannie and Freddie Principal Writedowns
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 949 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 25th
- Summary for Week ending March 23rd
- Bank Failure #15 in 2012: Premier Bank, Wilmette, Illinois
- Bank Failure #14 in 2012: Covenant Bank & Trust, Rock Spring, Georgia
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.6% in January
- Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in January
- Home Sales: Distressing Gap
- New Home Sales decline in February to 313,000 Annual Rate
- KB Home: Deliveries Up, Net Orders down year-over-year
- WSJ: BofA to try Deed-in-lieu to Rental Program
- Bernanke: "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis" Part 2
- Other House Price Indexes: FNC and RadarLogic
- Manufactured Home Shipments up 33% year-over-year in January
- Misc: Merrill House prices"bottoming now", FHFA House price index unchanged in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 348,000
- Housing: "Signs of Life"
- CoreLogic: Existing Home Shadow Inventory remains at 1.6 million units
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicated expansion in February
- Existing Home Sales in February: 4.59 million SAAR, 6.4 months of supply
- LPS: Percent of delinquent mortgage loans declined in February
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance activity slows as rates rise, "Sand States" now "HARP states"
- Greece: Parliament Approves Bailout
- Bernanke: "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis" Part 1
- LPS: 91,086 completed foreclosures in January 2012
- Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increased in January
- Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family
- Housing Starts decline slightly in February
- Market Update: Still a Lost Decade
- Lawler on FHA: Number of Seriously Delinquent SF Loans Down Slightly in February, Way Up from Year Ago
- Desktop Underwriter® Refi Plus and Wells Fargo
- NAHB Builder Confidence index unchanged in March
- Residential Remodeling Index increases 11% year-over-year in January
- HARP Update: Fannie Mae updates Desktop Underwriter® (DU)
- Oil and Gasoline Prices
- Some humor from Jim the Realtor
- Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Bush and Obama
- Year-over-year Change in Public and Private Payroll Employment
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 952 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 18th
- Summary for Week ending March 16th
- Norris: Full Service Restaurants and Okun's Law
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
- Key Measures of Inflation in February
- Consumer Sentiment declines in March to 74.3
- Industrial Production unchanged in February, Capacity Utilization declines
- BLS: CPI increases 0.4% in February
- Housing: Seasonality for Searches, Starts, Sales and Prices
- DataQuick: Bay Area California Home Sales increased in February
- CoreLogic: 69,000 completed foreclosures in January 2012
- Philly Fed and Empire State Manufacturing Surveys indicate slightly stronger expansion in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 351,000
- LA area Port Traffic declines in February
- Lawler: Updated “Distressed Sales” Shares Table, Select Areas
- DataQuick: Socal Home Sales increased in February
- Las Vegas House sales up 13% YoY in February, Inventory off sharply
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications increase
- Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index increased 0.7% in February
- Fed: 15 of 19 Banks passed adverse stress test scenario
- Fed to Release Stress Test Results Today at 4:30PM ET
- FOMC Statement: No changes, economy "expanding moderately"
- State Unemployment Rates "generally lower" in January
- BLS: Job Openings unchanged in January
- Retail Sales increased 1.1% in February
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism increases slightly in February
- Housing: Short Sales increase, Foreclosure Sales down Year-over-year
- Mortgage Settlement filed with Court
- Report: New Bank Stress Test results expected by Thursday
- Report: Public transportation ridership increases 2.3% in 2011
- Report: Mortgage Settlement might be filed in court Monday
- Lawler: REO inventory of "the F's", PLS, and FDIC-insured institutions combined down about 21% last year
- Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data for February
- AAR: Rail Traffic "mixed" in February
- Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 956 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 11th
- Summary for Week Ending March 9th
- Lawler: Hovnanian says Spring Selling Season “Off to a Good Start”
- Bank Failure #13 in 2012: New City Bank, Chicago, Illinois
- Freddie Mac: REO inventory declines 16% in 2011
- Trade Deficit increased in January to $52.6 Billion
- Employment Summary and Discussion
- February Employment Report: 227,000 Jobs, 8.3% Unemployment Rate
- A few Greek Debt Deal Details
- PIMCO's Taj Mahal
- Employment Situation Preview
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Real Estate Value declined $213 billion in Q4
- Report on Greek Debt Deal: "more than 75 percent and heading for 80 percent" participation
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 362,000
- Thursday: Another Key Day for Greece
- Lawler: 31% of FHA loans in negative equity
- CFO Survey: U.S. Employment Growth to Accelerate
- LPS: House Price Index declined 1.0% in December
- CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.0% in January to new post-bubble low
- ADP: Private Employment increased 216,000 in February
- Some more comments on Housing Inventory
- Hamilton: The impact of oil prices on the U.S. economy
- FHA Reduces Fees to Encourage Refinancing
- Greek Update: Collective action clause
- LPS: Foreclosure Starts and Sales increase Sharply in January
- Housing: Year over Year change in Asking Prices
- Lawler: Maryland and Foreclosures: Living for Free in the Free State?
- Existing Home Inventory declines 21% year-over-year in early March
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates faster expansion in February
- HAMP for Investors
- The Fed and QE3
- Report: Small Businesses added 45,000 jobs in February
- Personal Saving Rate and Income less Transfer Payments
- Unofficial Problem Bank list at 959 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of March 4th
- Summary for Week Ending March 2nd
- The Dentist Indicator
- Bank Failure #12 in 2012: Georgia again
- House Prices and Future Contracts
- Hotels: RevPAR increases 6.9% compared to same week in 2011
- Europe Update
- Greece Update
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 15.1 million annual rate in February
- CoreLogic: 11.1 Million U.S. Properties with Negative Equity in Q4
- Construction Spending declines slightly in January
- ISM Manufacturing index indicates slower expansion in February
- Personal Income increased 0.3% in January, Spending 0.2%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline slightly to 351,000
- Restaurant Performance Index declines in January, Still "solidly positive"
February 2012
- Fannie Mae Serious Delinquency rate declines, Freddie Mac rate increases
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased at "modest to moderate" pace
- Fannie Mae: REO inventory declines 27% in 2011
- Bernanke Testimony: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Misc: Purchase Mortgage Applications increase, ECB LTRO €530bn
- Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo receive Wells notices from SEC
- FDIC-insured institutions’ 1-4 Family Real Estate Owned (REO) decreased in Q4
- Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent fall to late '90s Levels
- Misc: Richmond Fed shows expansion, Consumer confidence increases, FDIC problem banks decline
- Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in December
- Durable Goods orders decline 4% in January
- Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Strengthens in February
- FHFA: "Tremendous" interest in new HARP Refinance Program
- FHFA announces Pilot REO Bulk Sales Offer
- Germany's Bundestag votes for Greek Bailout
- NY Fed: Delinquent Debt Shrinks while Real Estate Debt Continues to Fall
- NAR: Pending home sales increase in January
- Consensus Housing Forecast for 2012: 700,000 starts
- Question Contest, iPad Update, RSS and Twitter
- Europe: A few key dates
- 2011: Record Low Placements of Manufactured Homes, and Record low Total Completions
- Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 960 Institutions
- Buffett's Views on Housing
- Schedule for Week of February 26th
- Summary for Week ending February 24th
- Oil Prices and the Economy
- Bank Failure #11 in 2012: Home Savings of America, Little Falls, Minnesota
- Bank Failure #10 in 2012: Central Bank of Georgia, Ellaville, Georgia
- Lawler: Declining Inventory of Existing Homes for Sale: Don’t Forget Conversion to Rentals
- New Home Sales: 2011 Still the Worst Year, "Distressing Gap" remains very wide
- New Home Sales in January at 321,000 Annual Rate
- An "Upbeat" report on the Phoenix Housing Market
- BofA to Stop Selling Mortgages to Fannie Mae
- Hotels: RevPAR increases 4.4% compared to same week in 2011
- Comments on Existing Home Inventory
- Misc: Tenth District manufacturing increases, FHFA House Prices decline slightly in Q4
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchanged at 351,000
- Policy Status Update
- FNC House Prices, Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicated expansion in January
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in January: 4.57 million SAAR, 6.1 months of supply
- MBA: Purchase Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Home Depot on Housing
- LPS: Number of delinquent mortgage loans declined in January, In foreclosure increases slightly
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.3% in December
- Lawler: Number of Seriously-Delinquent FHA-Insured SF Loans Jumped Again in January
- Chicago Fed: Economic Growth in January above Average
- Report: Greek Debt Deal Reached
- Lawler: Update on Expectations for Existing Home Sales Report
- Eurogroup - press conference at 5 PM ET
- Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type
- Morning Greece: Eurozone finance ministers meet at 9 AM ET
- WSJ: IMF report shows Greek Debt situation worse than expected
- How can builder confidence improve, single family starts increase sharply, and new home sales be unchanged?
- Percent Job Losses: Great Recession and Great Depression
- A few key dates for the Greek Debt Deal
- Gasoline Prices: $4.50 per gallon by Memorial Day?
- Schedule for Week of February 19th
- Summary for Week ending February 17th
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 956 Institutions
- Report: Existing Home inventory down 23.3% year-over-year
- Lawler: Early Read on January Existing Home Sales
- Key Measures of Inflation in January
- Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate
- BLS: CPI increases 0.2% in January
- Earlier: Philly Fed "Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in February"
- Percent of mortgage loans In-Foreclosure by State
- Multi-family Starts and Completions, and Quarterly Starts by Intent
- Q4 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q4
- Housing Starts increase in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 348,000
- DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Flat, Record Investor Buying
- LA area Port Traffic mostly unchanged year-over-year in January
- Lawler: Short Sales increased significantly in Q4
- FOMC Minutes: A few members argued current conditions "could warrant" QE3 "before long"
- NAHB Builder Confidence index increases in February; Highest in over four years
- Industrial Production unchanged in January, Capacity Utilization declines
- NY Fed Survey: Manufacturing activity expanded at a faster pace in February
- MBA: Purchase Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Policy Update: Extension of payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits
- FHA REO Inventory declines to four-year low in December
- Report: Wednesday euro zone finance minister meeting cancelled
- Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index declined 1.7% in January
- Retail Sales increased 0.4% in January
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases slightly in January
- SF Fed President Williams: "Vital that we keep the monetary policy throttle wide open"
- Europe Update: Downgrades, Greek Aid may be conditional
- Housing: Short Sales increase, Foreclosure Sales down Year-over-year
- Residential Remodeling Index increases 22.8% year-over-year in December
- Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data for January
- Mortgage Servicer Settlement by State
- Sunday Night Futures
- Greece: NY Times reports Austerity has Passed
- Economic Analysis and Inaccurate Numbers
- Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 958 Institutions
- Greek Parliament to vote Sunday at Midnight (5 PM ET)
- Schedule for Week of February 12th
- Summary for Week ending February 10th
- Late Night Reading: Greek Agreement with Troika
- Bank Failures #8 &9 in 2012: Illinois and Indiana
- Greece Update: More Delays and Demonstrations
- Bernanke: "Housing Markets in Transition"
- Consumer Sentiment declines in February to 72.5
- Trade Deficit increased in December to $48.8 Billion
- NAHB: Bernanke speaks on Friday, Multifamily and Remodeling expected to increase in 2012
- Mortgage Settlement and Negative Equity
- Hotels: RevPAR increases 8.7% compared to same week in 2011
- Policy Updates: Mortgage Settlement Reached, Greek politicians agree on Debt Deal
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 358,000
- Zillow: House prices declined 4.7% in 2011, Forecasts 3.7% decline in 2012
- WSJ: Mortgage Settlement could be announced Thursday, to include Florida, California, New York
- Las Vegas House sales up 12% YoY in January, Inventory off sharply
- The impact of changes in the participation rate on the unemployment rate
- MBA: Refinance activity increases as mortgage rates fall to record low
- Greece Update: ECB to make a contribution
- NY AG cancels statement on Mortgage Settlement
- Mortgage Settlement: NY AG to make statement at 6 PM ET
- Goldman: No Labor Force Participation Rebound in Sight
- BLS: Job Openings increased in December
- Short Sales: $35 Thousand Cash-for-keys
- Mortgage Settlement: More than 40 states have agreed
- Existing Home Inventory declines 21% year-over-year in early February
- Housing: The Two Bottoms
- The Housing Bottom is Here
- CRE: Another Half Off Sale
- NY Times: California might join mortgage settlement
- Greek talks end without agreement, will meet again on Monday
- Recovery Measures
- Greece: Key meeting on Sunday
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased 0.1 percent YoY in January
- Schedule for Week of February 5th
- Summary for Week ending February 3rd
- Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 958 Institutions
- Employment: The "Not in Labor Force" actually declined in January
- Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates faster expansion in January
- Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
- Graphs: Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate, Jobs added
- January Employment Report: 243,000 Jobs, 8.3% Unemployment Rate
- Mortgage Rates fall to record low
- Lawler: Home Builder Results for Last Quarter
- January Employment Report Revisions and Issues
- NMHC Apartment Survey: Market Conditions Tighten in Recent Survey
- CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.4% in December to new post-bubble low
- Bernanke Testimony: "The Economic Outlook and the Federal Budget Situation"
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 367,000
- Q4 2011 GDP Details: Investment in Office, Mall, and Lodging, Residential Components
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.18 million annual rate in January
- Misc: REO to Rental Program, New Refinance Plan and Auto Sales
- Construction Spending increased 1.5% in December
- ISM Manufacturing index indicates faster expansion in January
- ADP: Private Employment increased 170,000 in January
- ISM Seasonality
- Mortgage Settlement: Ally Takes $270 million charge for "foreclosure related matters"
January 2012
- Fannie Mae Serious Delinquency rate declines, Freddie Mac rate increases
- Restaurant Performance Index highest in almost six years in December
- Real House Prices and House Price-to-Rent
- HVS: Q4 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in November (seasonally adjusted)
- A few policies I expect soon
- Research: Weak labor demand explains increase in unemployment duration
- Mortgage Settlement: States face "end-of-the-week deadline"
- Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey: Lending standards "little changed", "somewhat stronger loan demand"
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey shows expansion in January
- Personal Income increased 0.5% in December, Spending decreased slightly
- European Leaders: Austerity alone not answer
- Existing Home Inventory declines 17% year-over-year in January
- Mortgage Settlement and New Investigation
- Europe Update: Greece nears debt deal
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 958 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Jan 29th
- Summary for Week ending January 27th
- Government to triple HAMP payments for principal reductions
- Bank Failure #6 & 7: Tennessee and Minnesota
- Bank Failures #4 and 5 in 2012: Florida and Tennessee
- LPS: 2010, 2011 Mortgage Originations have record low default rates
- Q4 GDP: Residential Investment now making a positive contribution
- Consumer Sentiment increases in January
- Real GDP increased 2.8% annual rate in Q4
- GDP Report expected to show 3% annualized growth
- Case Shiller House Price Forecasts: New Post-bubble lows Seasonally Adjusted
- Misc: Tenth District manufacturing increases, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, State Coincident indexes
- 2011: Record Low New Home Sales and 'Distressing Gap'
- New Home Sales decline in December to 307,000 Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 377,000
- California AG: Mortgage settlement 'inadequate'
- Analysis: Bernanke paves the way for QE3
- FOMC: Sets 2% Inflation Target, January Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Press Briefing
- FOMC Statement: Rates likely exceptionally low through late 2014
- Pending Home Sales Decline in December
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application Index declined in Latest Survey
- Comparing Ceridian Diesel Fuel Index and ATA Trucking Index
- SOTU Video: 9 PM ET
- Housing Initiatives Tonight
- DataQuick: California Foreclosure Activity declines in Q4
- ATA Trucking Index increased sharply in December
- State Unemployment Rates "slightly lower" in December
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Picks Up the Pace in January
- Greece: Eurozone finance ministers push for lower rates on private sector involvement
- FHFA Analysis on Principal Forgiveness
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven declined 0.9% in November
- Hotels: STR on 2011 results, 2012 forecast
- AP reports $25B Mortgage Settlement goes to states for review
- Morning Greece: Euro Zone Finance Ministers discuss possible debt deal
- Greece: Still no deal on debt
- FOMC Meeting Preview
- Q4 GDP Forecasts: Sluggish Growth
- Greek Debt Deal Update: Talks Continue
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 963 Institutions
- Schedule for Week of Jan 22nd
- Summary for Week ending January 20th
- Fed releases templates for FOMC Fed Funds rate projections
- Bank Failure #3 in 2012: American Eagle Savings Bank, Boothwyn, PA
- Bank Failures #1 & 2 in 2012: Florida and Georgia
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate back to pre-recession levels
- Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
- Existing Home Sales in December: 4.61 million SAAR, 6.2 months of supply
- More on Greek Debt Deal
- Europe Update: Greek Debt Deal Talks continue Friday
- Lawler: Housing Forecast for 2012
- Key Measures of Inflation moderate in December
- Housing: Record Low Total Completions in 2011
- Philly Fed: "Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace in January"
- Housing Starts decline in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 352,000
- Summary of Busy Day
- FNC and Zillow House Price Indexes for November
- HUD Secretary Donovan : Mortgage Settlement "Very Close"
- AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicated expansion in December
- NAHB Builder Confidence index increases in January
- Industrial Production increased 0.4% in December, Capacity Utilization increased
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications increase sharply
- Residential Remodeling Index declines seasonally in November
- QOTD: Housing "markets get healthy from the bottom up"
- LA area Port Traffic increases slightly year-over-year in December
- DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales decline year-over-year, Record investor buying
- Credit Stress Indicators: Little Spillover to US from Europe
- NY Fed Survey: Manufacturing activity expanded at a faster pace in January
- Monday Night Futures: China GDP increases 8.9% year-over-year
- Comparing New Home Sales and Housing Starts
- Some Bullish Housing Forecasts for 2012
- Herman Van Rompuy: Europe urgently needs an "anti-recession strategy"
- Growing Doubts about Greece
- Oil Prices and Economic Growth
- Hamilton: Implications of Iranian oil embargo
- Europe: Greek Debt talks will resume next week
- Unofficial Problem Bank List and Quarterly Transition Matrix
- Schedule for Week of Jan 15th
- Summary for Week ending January 13th
- Record Home Sales in Las Vegas in 2011
- Mortgage Settlement Update
- Europe Update
- Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index increased 0.2% in December
- Financial Times: France and Austria face Downgrades, Greek Debt talks "collapse"
- Consumer Sentiment increases in January
- Trade Deficit increased in November to $47.8 Billion
- Foreclosures and Short Sale percentages for a few areas
- Lawler: Early Read on December Existing Home Sales
- Record Low Mortgage Rates compared to Refinance Index
- The FOMC 2006 Transcripts
- Remittances to Mexico Rebound
- Retail Sales increased 0.1% in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 399,000
- RealtyTrac: Bank seizures of homes fell to four year low in 2011 due to process issues
- More Housing Forecasts
- Pettis on Europe and China
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity increased at "modest to moderate" pace
- Herman Van Rompuy: Eurozone needs a fiscal strategy that is "growth friendly"
- LPS: House Price Index Shows 0.8 Percent decline in October
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application Index increased
- Offices: The Rent Rollover Problem
- Jim the Realtor: Online Radio
- Fiscal Policy: Kind of a Drag
- NFIB: Poor Sales remains top business problem for small business owners
- BLS: Job Openings "unchanged" in November
- NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in December
- Germany and France warn Greece on Debt Deal
- Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data for December
- Question #3 for 2012: Will foreclosure activity increase in 2012?
- CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.4% in November
- Herman Van Rompuy: Europe needs "job-friendly growth"
- Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate declines slightly
- Question #4 for 2012: U.S. Economic Growth
- Question #5 for 2012: Employment
- Housing Policy Changes
- Residential Construction Employment: First increase since 2005
- Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 970 institutions
- Schedule for Week of Jan 8th
- Summary for Week ending January 6th
- More Housing Policy
- AAR: Rail Traffic increased 7.3 percent YoY in December
- LPS on Mortgages: "Trend toward fewer loans becoming delinquent has halted"
- Seasonal Retail Hiring, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
- Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
- December Employment Report: 200,000 Jobs, 8.5% Unemployment Rate
- Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declines slightly in Q4 to 17.3%
- Report: Greek Debt Deal Near
- Survey: Small Business Owners report small decline in employment, hiring plans positive
- Employment Situation Preview: Improved, but still not strong
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightly faster expansion in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 372,000
- ADP: Private Employment increased 325,000 in December
- Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 5.2% in Q4, Lowest since 2001
- Misc: ISM Seasonality, Economic predictions with Search Engines and more
- U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 13.56 million SAAR in December
- Fed White Paper: "The U.S. Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Considerations"
- Question #6 for 2012: Unemployment Rate
- Chrysler, Ford and General Motors report December vehicle sales
- MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application Index decreased over Holidays
- Court Ruling: MBIA wins vs. BofA
- Question #7 for 2012: State and Local Governments
- FOMC Minutes: Agreement to provide "projections of appropriate monetary policy" in January
- Construction Spending increased in November
- ISM Manufacturing index indicates faster expansion in December
- A few key dates for Europe
- Question #8 for 2012: Europe and the Euro
- Misc: Only one office building under construction in Inland Empire, Vegas sees an increase in visitors
- Comments on the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey
- Europe Update
- Merkel: 2012 "more difficult than 2011"
- Some Housing Forecasts
- Vehicle Miles Driven Decline: A possible contributing factor
- Happy New Year!