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Calculated Risk
A top ranked economics and finance blog with a focus on the housing market
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- 35,064 from 8 Jan 2005 to 12 Jan 2026
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- about daily (253 in the last year)
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- personal blog
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Latest
January 2026
- This is the End and a New Beginning
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate
- Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026
- The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
- Comments on December Employment Report
- December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Flow of Funds
- December Employment Preview
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased Slightly in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $29.4 Billion in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 208,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 54.4% in December
- BLS: Job Openings Declined to 7.1 million in November
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 41,000 in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Job Openings, ISM Services
- Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.0 Million SAAR in December
- Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
- Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year
- ICE: "Annual home price growth ended 2025 at just +0.7%"
- "Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Low"
- Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.9% in December; "Lowest Reading of 2025"
- Housing January 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.2% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Lumber Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices up 1.4% YoY
- Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
- Question #1 for 2026: How much will the economy grow in 2026? Will there be a recession in 2026?
- Question #2 for 2026: How much will job growth slow in 2026? Or will the economy lose jobs?
- Question #3 for 2026: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?
- Thursday: Happy New Year!
December 2025
- Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 199,000
- Wednesday: Unemployment Claims
- FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
- FOMC Minutes: Further Cuts "Likely" Appropriate if Inflation Declines as Expected
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI, FOMC Minutes
- Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 3.3% in November; Up 2.6% YoY
- Housing December 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.9% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Economic Questions for 2026
- Schedule for Week of December 28, 2025
- Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?
- Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High
- Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
- Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
- Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 214,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Unemployment Claims
- ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Seasonal and Calendar Factors Drive Rise in November Delinquencies
- Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
- Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November; Declined 0.1% in October
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.3% Annualized Rate in Q3
- Tuesday: GDP, Durable Goods, Industrial Production, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?
- Housing December 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.3% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Ten Economic Questions for 2026
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR
- Schedule for Week of December 21, 2025
- Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.1% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.1% in November
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2025
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% Over 2 Months; Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
- AIA: "Architecture firm billings remain stagnant" in November
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025
- Retail Sales Unchanged in October
- Comments on November Employment Report
- November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs
- Tuesday: Employment Report, Retail Sales
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased Slightly in December, Negative territory for 20 consecutive months
- Housing December 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.5% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Realtor.com Reports Median Listing Prices Down 1.2% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
- Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025
- Goldman on Shelter Inflation
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.2% Year-over-year
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
- Friday: No major economic releases scheduled.
- Cotality: Homeowners With Negative Equity Increasing
- Mortgage Rates: The New Normal
- HVS: Q3 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $52.8 Billion in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 236,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Projections: GDP and Unemployment Revised Up; Inflation Down
- FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
- Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November
- BLS: Job Openings Unchanged at 7.7 million in October
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 1% in November
- December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year
- Housing December 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:
- Schedule for Week of December 7, 2025
- AAR Rail Traffic in November: "Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes"
- Q3 GDP Tracking: Mid 3%
- PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 3.7% YoY in September
- Personal Income Increased 0.4% in September; Spending Increased 0.3%
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in November; Unchanged Year-over-year
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year
- Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.1% YoY in October
- Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 191,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in October and November
- Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 15.6 Million SAAR in November
- Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.6% in November; Employment in Contraction for Sixth Consecutive Month
- Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in September
- ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Industrial Production, ISM Services
- Is the Future still Bright?
- Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
Every year
2026 402025 1,4362024 1,4382023 1,5472022 1,5912021 1,9482020 1,8432019 1,4272018 1,4722017 1,3802016 1,3872015 1,4902014 1,6172013 1,7492012 1,9322011 2,0302010 2,2642009 2,8202008 2,7122007 1,7322006 6692005 540