2025–2026
1,476 posts
2026 40
January 2026
- This is the End and a New Beginning
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate
- Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026
- The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
- Comments on December Employment Report
- December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Flow of Funds
- December Employment Preview
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased Slightly in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $29.4 Billion in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 208,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 54.4% in December
- BLS: Job Openings Declined to 7.1 million in November
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 41,000 in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Job Openings, ISM Services
- Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.0 Million SAAR in December
- Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
- Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year
- ICE: "Annual home price growth ended 2025 at just +0.7%"
- "Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Low"
- Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.9% in December; "Lowest Reading of 2025"
- Housing January 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.2% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Lumber Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices up 1.4% YoY
- Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
- Question #1 for 2026: How much will the economy grow in 2026? Will there be a recession in 2026?
- Question #2 for 2026: How much will job growth slow in 2026? Or will the economy lose jobs?
- Question #3 for 2026: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?
- Thursday: Happy New Year!
2025 1,436
December 2025
- Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 199,000
- Wednesday: Unemployment Claims
- FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
- FOMC Minutes: Further Cuts "Likely" Appropriate if Inflation Declines as Expected
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI, FOMC Minutes
- Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 3.3% in November; Up 2.6% YoY
- Housing December 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.9% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Economic Questions for 2026
- Schedule for Week of December 28, 2025
- Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?
- Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Almost to Housing Bust High
- Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?
- Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
- Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 214,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Unemployment Claims
- ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Seasonal and Calendar Factors Drive Rise in November Delinquencies
- Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
- Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November; Declined 0.1% in October
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.3% Annualized Rate in Q3
- Tuesday: GDP, Durable Goods, Industrial Production, Richmond Fed Mfg
- Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?
- Housing December 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.3% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Ten Economic Questions for 2026
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR
- Schedule for Week of December 21, 2025
- Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.1% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.1% in November
- Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2025
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% Over 2 Months; Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
- AIA: "Architecture firm billings remain stagnant" in November
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025
- Retail Sales Unchanged in October
- Comments on November Employment Report
- November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs
- Tuesday: Employment Report, Retail Sales
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased Slightly in December, Negative territory for 20 consecutive months
- Housing December 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.5% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Realtor.com Reports Median Listing Prices Down 1.2% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
- Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025
- Goldman on Shelter Inflation
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.2% Year-over-year
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
- Friday: No major economic releases scheduled.
- Cotality: Homeowners With Negative Equity Increasing
- Mortgage Rates: The New Normal
- HVS: Q3 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $52.8 Billion in September
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 236,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Projections: GDP and Unemployment Revised Up; Inflation Down
- FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
- Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November
- BLS: Job Openings Unchanged at 7.7 million in October
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 1% in November
- December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year
- Housing December 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:
- Schedule for Week of December 7, 2025
- AAR Rail Traffic in November: "Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes"
- Q3 GDP Tracking: Mid 3%
- PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 3.7% YoY in September
- Personal Income Increased 0.4% in September; Spending Increased 0.3%
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in November; Unchanged Year-over-year
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year
- Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.1% YoY in October
- Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 191,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in October and November
- Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 15.6 Million SAAR in November
- Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.6% in November; Employment in Contraction for Sixth Consecutive Month
- Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in September
- ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in November
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, Industrial Production, ISM Services
- Is the Future still Bright?
- Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales
- Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.2% in November
- Housing December 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Only Down 4.3% Compared to Same Week in 2019
November 2025
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Lumber Prices Down 8% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
- Schedule for Week of November 30, 2025
- November Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Year-over-year
- Q3 GDP Tracking: High 3%
- Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)
- Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
- ICE First Look at October Mortgage Performance: "National delinquency rate fell"
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity little changed"
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000
- Wednesday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Beige Book
- Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in September
- FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 1.9% in October; Down 0.4% YoY
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, PPI, Pending Home Sales
- Bankruptcy Filings Increase 10.6 Percent
- Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"
- Housing November 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Only Down 4.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019
- Sunday Night Futures
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 2.0% year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
- Schedule for Week of November 23, 2025
- Q3 GDP Tracking: Close to 4%
- Realtor.com Reports Median Listing Price Down Year-over-year
- Friday: No Major Economic Releases
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.1% Year-over-year
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
- September Employment Report: 119 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, September Employment Report, Unemployment Claims
- AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms" in October
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October; What is the “Market’s” Estimate of R*?
- FOMC Minutes: "Likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $59.6 Billion in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes
- LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in October; Exports Down YoY for 11th Consecutive Month
- California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased Slightly in November, Negative territory for 19 consecutive months
- Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October
- Construction Spending Increased 0.2% in August
- Housing November 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Lumber Prices Down 8% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3
- Schedule for Week of November 16, 2025
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025
- Q3 GDP Tracking: Missing Data!
- Realtor.com Reports Median Listing Price Down Year-over-year
- Friday: October Retail Sales and PPI will NOT be released
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 2.5% Year-over-year
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025
- Thursday: No Weekly Claims or CPI Data
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Mortgage Applications
- The Next Financial Crisis
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October
- Tuesday: Veterans Day
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in October
- November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year
- Housing November 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- AAR Rail Traffic in October: Carloads Flat, Intermodal Down
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
- Schedule for Week of November 9, 2025
- Realtor.com Reports Median listing price "dipped slightly" year over year
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Unchanged Year-over-year
- Revelio Labs: 9,100 Jobs Lost in October
- Friday: No BLS Employment Report
- Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.2% YoY in September
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.6% Year-over-year
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October
- Thursday: No Unemployment Claims
- Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly
- NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased $197 Billion in Q3; Delinquencies "Elevated"
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.4% in October; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fifth Consecutive Month
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 42,000 in October
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Report on Household Debt and Credit
- Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH
- House Prices to Income
- Light Vehicle Sales Decreased to 15.3 Million SAAR in October; Lowest in 15 Months
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit and Job Openings Will Not be Released
- Fed October SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Stronger Demand for Some Loan Categories
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in October
- Housing November 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.3% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Update: Lumber Prices Down 3% YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
- Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025
October 2025
- Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind is Scary!
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September
- Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays will Not be Released
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.6% Year-over-year
- Las Vegas in September: Visitor Traffic Down 9% YoY
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 10.2% below 2022 peak
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims and GDP will Not be Released
- FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in September; Down 0.9% YoY
- MBA:Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement, Pending Home Sales
- A few Comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
- October Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Sharply Due to Decline in EV Sales
- Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales
- Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
- Schedule for Week of October 26, 2025
- ICE First Look at September Mortgage Performance: "Delinquencies remain well below pre-pandemic norms"
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in September
- NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3
- Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.8% in 2026, Contribution Base increased to $184,500
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in September; Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Friday: CPI
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.4% Year-over-year
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales
- AIA: "Softness persists at architecture firms" in September
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September
- MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
- A Few Photos from Patagonia
- Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
- NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in October, Negative territory for 18 consecutive months
- LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in September
- Tuesday: Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows
- California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September
- Housing October 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week
- The Long and Winding Road
- Schedule for Week of October 19, 2025
- On Recession Calls
- 2012: Calling the House Price Bottom
- 2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy
- 2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear
- From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd
- Schedule for Week of October 12, 2025
- A year ago: Lance Lambert Interviews Me on the Housing Market
- December 2006: Tanta joined CR!
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease
- The Long and Winding Road
- Calculated Risk on Vacation until October 21st
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined Slightly in September; Up 2% Year-over-year
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit (not happening), FOMC Minutes
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year
- Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices up 1.7% YoY
- Schedule for Week of October 5, 2025
- Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
- ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50% in September; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fourth Consecutive Month
- Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
- Friday: Employment Report (No!), ISM Services
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 10% below 2022 peak
- Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Vehicle Sales
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
- ISM® Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September
- ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in September
- MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
September 2025
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
- A few Comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July
- BLS: Job Openings Unchanged at 7.2 million in August
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings
- Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)
- Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 4.0% in August; Up 3.8% YoY
- Housing September 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Unchanged Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- Lawler: NAR “Fixes” Median Sales Price for July
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR
- Schedule for Week of September 28, 2025
- Q3 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up
- FHFA’s Q2 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
- Personal Income Increased 0.4% in August; Spending Increased 0.6%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
- September Vehicle Sales Forecast: Solid, Boosted by EV Sales, Q4 Concerns
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.1% Year-over-year
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August
- Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.8% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 218,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Durable Goods, Existing Home Sales
- AIA: "Softness persists at architecture firms" in August
- ICE First Look at August Mortgage Performance: "Delinquencies Up on Calendar Effect; Foreclosure Activity Slowly Trending Higher"
- Newsletter: New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August
- New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- Fed Chair Powell: "No Risk-Free Path"
- Canadian Hotels Report Strong Summer Business
- Household Formation Drives Housing Demand
- Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg
- California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month
- A Few Comments on a Possible Government Shutdown
- Housing September 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 1.7% year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Decreased in August
- Schedule for Week of September 21, 2025
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August
- Q3 GDP Tracking
- Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
- Friday: No Major Economic Releases
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.8% Year-over-year
- Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 231,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in August
- FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Up Slightly
- FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Statement
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High", Negative territory for 17 consecutive months
- Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in August
- Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in August
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- "A Dirty Little Secret"
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August
- Housing September 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.6% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing Market
- Schedule for Week of September 14, 2025
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025
- Q3 GDP Tracking
- Early Look at 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Friday
- Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q2
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $7.1 Trillion in Q2
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in August
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in August; Core CPI increased 0.3%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 263,000; Highest Since 2021
- Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds
- Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.4% YoY in July
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: PPI
- CPI Preview
- Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August
- Tuesday: Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Unchanged in August; Up 2% Year-over-year
- September ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year
- Recession Watch Metrics
- Housing September 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week
- Sunday Night Futures
- AAR Rail Traffic in August: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Increased YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: What will happen with house prices?
- Schedule for Week of September 7, 2025
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.8% Year-over-year
- Q3 GDP Tracking
- What will happen with House Prices?
- Comments on August Employment Report
- August Employment Report: 22 thousand Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Las Vegas in July: Visitor Traffic Down 12% YoY
- Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 16% YoY in August
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Light Vehicles Sales Decreased to 16.07 million SAAR in August
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 52% in August; Prices Paid Very High
- Trade Deficit Increased to $78.3 Billion in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 237,000
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 54,000 in August
- Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services
- Fed's Beige Book: "Little or no change in economic activity"
- Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.2 million in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Job Openings, Beige Book
- Construction Spending Decreased 0.1% in July
- ISM® Manufacturing index at 48.7% in August
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in July; Up 1.4% Year-over-Year
- Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 11% YoY
- Housing September 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 10.3% from 2019 Levels
August 2025
- Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices Up 1.9% YoY in July
- Schedule for Week of August 31, 2025
- Q3 GDP Tracking
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.1% Year-over-year
- PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 4.0% YoY in July
- Personal Income Increased 0.4% in July; Spending Increased 0.5%
- Friday: July Personal Income and Outlays
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in July
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 9.8% below 2022 peak
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 0.4% in July; Up 0.7% YoY
- Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.3% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 229,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- How to Prevent the Next Financial Crisis
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July and a Comment on July Sales from Tom Lawler
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller, Durable Goods, Richmond Fed Mfg
- ICE First Look at July Mortgage Performance: "Delinquencies Ease in July"
- Newsletter: New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July
- New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July
- Housing August 25th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 9.4% from 2019 Levels
- Monday: New Home Sales
- August Vehicle Sales Forecast: Solid, Boosted by EV Sales
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Median House Prices Up Only 0.2% YoY
- Schedule for Week of August 24, 2025
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 41 States in July (3-Month Basis)
- Q3 GDP Tracking
- Fed Chair Powell: "The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance"
- Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
- Friday: Fed Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.9% Year-over-year; Weak Summer
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 235,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales
- FOMC Minutes: "Committee might face difficult tradeoffs" regarding Unemployment and Inflation
- AIA: "Business at architecture firms remains soft" in July
- California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index, FOMC Minutes
- DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 1.5% year-over-year
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in July
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in July
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- LA Ports: Imports Up, Exports Down in July
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level"'; "Negative territory for 16 consecutive months"
- Housing August 18th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 9.9% from 2019 Levels
- Monday: Homebuilder Survey
- Q3 GDP Tracking
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
- Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in July
- Retail Sales Increased 0.5% in July
- Friday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Industrial Production
- First American: National Home Price Growth Cools Further in July
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year; Weak Summer
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- The Decline in Summer Teen Employment
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in July
- Early Look at 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in July; Core CPI increased 0.3%
- Tuesday: CPI
- The Next Financial Crisis
- August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool
- Housing August 11th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.8% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels
- Sunday Night Futures
- CPI Preview
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
- Schedule for Week of August 10, 2025
- AAR: Rail Traffic in July: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Increased
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 24% YoY
- Early Q3 GDP Tracking
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July
- Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since November 2019
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.1% Year-over-year; Weak Summer
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in July; Up 3% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 226,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Recession Watch Metrics
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications
- Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.7% YoY in June; Weakest June since 2008
- Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease
- NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased $185 Billion in Q2; Delinquencies Elevated
- ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.1% in July; Prices Paid Highest Since 2022
- Trade Deficit Decreased to $60.2 Billion in June
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, ISM Services, NY Fed Household Debt and Credit
- Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in July
- Fed July SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Most Loan Categories
- How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026?
- Light Vehicles Sales Increased to 16.41 million SAAR in July
- Housing August 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Composition of the FOMC
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May
- Schedule for Week of August 3, 2025
- Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since November 2019
- Construction Spending Decreased 0.4% in June
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.0% in July
- Comments on July Employment Report
- July Employment Report: 73 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
July 2025
- July Employment Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.7% Year-over-year; Weak Summer Continues
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Punta Gorda, Florida has passed Austin as the worst performing city
- PCE Measure of Shelter Unchanged at 4.1% YoY in June
- Personal Income Increased 0.3% in June; Spending Increased 0.3%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 218,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Personal Income and Outlays
- Las Vegas in June: Visitor Traffic Down 11.3% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 10.7% YoY
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 9.3% below 2022 peak
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 0.8% in June; Down 2.8% YoY
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.0% Annualized Rate in Q2
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 104,000 in July
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Q2 GDP, FOMC Statement, Pending Home Sales, ADP Employment
- The July Employment Report and State and Local Education
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.4 million in June
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June
- HVS: Q2 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- TSA: Airline Travel Mostly Unchanged YoY
- Housing July 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June
- Schedule for Week of July 27, 2025
- Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since November 2019
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Mid-2s
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.6% Year-over-year; Weak Summer
- Friday: Durable Goods
- July Vehicle Forecast: Sales "Rebound"
- ICE First Look at June Mortgage Performance: "Delinquencies Trend Slightly Higher in June"
- Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June
- New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 217,000
- Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- AIA: "Architecture firm billings remain soft" in June
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 40 States in June (3-Month Basis)
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 30% YoY
- Fed Forecasts: No Cuts or Three Cuts in 2025?
- California Home Sales Down Slightly YoY in June
- Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell, Richmond Fed Mfg
- NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2
- Goldman's Mid-Year Housing Outlook
- Housing July 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.2% Week-over-week; Down 11% from 2019 Levels
- Sunday Night Futures
- Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since November 2019
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 0.5% YoY in June
- Schedule for Week of July 20, 2025
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Mid-2s
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June
- Friday: Housing Starts
- LA Ports: Traffic Down 3% YoY in June
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.2% Year-over-year
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Edges Up in July"'; "Negative territory for 15 consecutive months"
- Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in June
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly"
- Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: PPI, Industrial Production, Beige Book
- An Early Look at 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in June
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in June; Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Tuesday: CPI, NY Fed Mfg
- CPI Preview
- Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025?
- Housing July 14th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.7% Week-over-week, Down 11% from 2019 Levels
- Sunday Night Futures
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Months-of-supply is higher than the previous 8 years!
- Schedule for Week of July 13, 2025
- "The Office Sector’s Double Whammy"; Record High Office Vacancy Rate
- Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since December 2019
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2s
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 7% in June
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 227,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- FOMC Minutes: Rate Cut this year would "likely be appropriate"
- TSA: Airline Travel Mostly Unchanged YoY
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in June; Up 6% Year-over-year
- Small Business Optimism Index decreased slightly in June
- Tuesday: Small Business Index
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 26% YoY
- July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge
- Housing July 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.7% Week-over-week, Only Down 10% from 2019 Levels
- Sunday Night Futures
- Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: FHFA Releases National Mortgage Database
- Schedule for Week of July 6, 2025
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.1% Year-over-year
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving on Down
- AAR: Rail Traffic in June: Intermodal "Stumbles", Carload Growth Continues
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 50.8% in June; Price Paid Highest Since 2022
- Trade Deficit increased to $71.5 Billion in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 233,000
- Comments on June Employment Report
- June Employment Report: 147 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
- Thursday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services
- June Employment Preview
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in June
- Light Vehicles Sales Decreased to 15.34 million SAAR in June
- ADP: Private Employment Decreased 33,000 in June
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.8% YoY in May
- Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in May
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May; Fannie Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Highest Since Jan 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
- BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.8 million in May
- ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.0% in June
- Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Job Openings, Vehicle Sales
June 2025
- Trump and Fed Policy
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year
- FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
- Housing June 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.3% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
- Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025
- Las Vegas in May: Visitor Traffic Down 6.5% YoY; Convention Traffic up 10.7% YoY
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
- PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.1% YoY in May
- Personal Income Decreased 0.4% in May; Spending Decreased 0.1%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, PCE Inflation
- Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since December 2019
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.8% below 2022 peak
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.8% in May; Up 1.1% YoY
- Q1 GDP Growth Revised down to -0.5% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 236,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- June Vehicle Forecast: Sales "Subdued" at 15.0 million SAAR
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
- New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- ICE First Look at May Mortgage Performance: "Delinquencies Hold Steady and Foreclosure Sales Rise to Highest Level Since Early 2023"
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.4% Year-over-year
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- A Very Early Look at 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY
- Housing June 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 30.7% Year-over-year
- Monday: Existing Home Sales
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 36% YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million SAAR
- Schedule for Week of June 22, 2025
- June 20th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Wide Range
- California Home Sales "Sputter" in May; 4th Look at Local Markets
- Friday: Philly Fed Mfg
- TSA: Airline Travel Down Slightly YoY
- Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since December 2019
- Update: The Art of the Soft Landing
- Thursday: Juneteenth Holiday
- AIA: "Architecture firm billings continued to decline in May"
- FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 245,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, FOMC Statement
- LA Ports: Traffic Down Sharply in May
- Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts
- NAHB: "Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012" in June
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.2% in May
- Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in May
- Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May
- Housing June 16th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 33.1% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1
- Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025
- June 13th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May
- Real Estate Agent Booms and Busts
- Q2 GDP Tracking
- Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since December 2019
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.2% Year-over-year
- Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $1.6 Trillion in Q1
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 248,000
- Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in May
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.1% in May; Core CPI increased 0.1%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI
- By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- CPI Preview
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025
- Tuesday: Small Business Index
- Intercontinental Exchange: House Prices growth slows to 1.4% YoY in May
- Recession Watch Metrics
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025
- Housing June 9th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week, Up 32.2% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 4% in May
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Fannie Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Jan 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
- Schedule for Week of June 8, 2025
- June 6th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low
- AAR: Rail "Intermodal Slips, But Carloads Hold Steady Amid Continued Uncertainty"
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Up
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in May; Up 4% Year-over-year
- Comments on May Employment Report
- May Employment Report: 139 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since December 2019
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year
- May Employment Preview
- Trade Deficit decreased to $61.6 Billion in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 247,000
- Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity has declined slightly"
- Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
- Heavy Truck Sales Down 8% YoY in May
- ISM® Services Index decreased to 49.9% in May
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 37,000 in May
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services
- Light Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.65 million SAAR in May
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.4 million in April
- Tuesday: Job Openings, Vehicle Sales
- June ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in April; Fannie Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Jan 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
- Construction Spending Decreased 0.4% in April
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.5% in May
- Housing June 2nd Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 32.8% Year-over-year
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 17% YoY
May 2025
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year
- Schedule for Week of June 1, 2025
- May 30th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Wide Range due to Trade "Distortions"
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year
- PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.2% YoY in April
- Personal Income increased 0.8% in April; Spending increased 0.2%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 6.3% in April; Down 2.5% YoY
- Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to -0.2% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 240,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Las Vegas in April: Visitor Traffic Down 5.1% YoY; Convention Traffic up 13.9% YoY
- FOMC Minutes: "Difficult tradeoffs" if Inflation "more persistent" and "growth and employment weaken"
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak
- FDIC: Commercial Real Estate "Past-Due and nonaccrual" Highest Since 2014
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year in March
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year in March
- Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales
- Memorial Day: Remembering James Hoey
- Housing May 26th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.6% Week-over-week, Up 32.4% Year-over-year
- The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April
- Schedule for Week of May 25, 2025
- May 23rd COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Low 2%
- Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 743,000 Annual Rate in April
- New Home Sales Increase to 743,000 Annual Rate in April
- ICE First Look at April Mortgage Performance: "Foreclosure Activity Edges Higher Following Recent Record Lows"
- Friday: New Home Sales
- Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 227,000
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
- ICE: "Annual home price growth nationally slowed to 1.6% in May"
- AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms"
- In Q1 2025, 19% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
- May Vehicle Forecast: Sales "Cooling Off" to 15.9 million SAAR
- Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 13% YoY
- California Home Sales "Retreat" in April; New Listings "Surge"
- "Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7%"
- LA Ports: April Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down
- "How do you grade the Spring housing market?"
- Housing May 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.5% Week-over-week, Up 32.7% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
- Schedule for Week of May 18, 2025
- May 16th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths Increased Slightly
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Low-to-Mid 2%
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
- Friday: Housing Starts
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.3% Year-over-year
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April
- NAHB: "Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence" in May
- Industrial Production Unchanged in April
- Fed Chair Powell: "Longer-run level of the policy rate have risen"
- Retail Sales Increased 0.1% in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 229,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales, PPI, NY & Philly Fed Mfg, Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025
- Q1 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Increase
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Mortgage Applications
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in April
- NY Fed Q1 Report: Change in Household Debt Balances Mixed; Student Loan Delinquencies Rise Sharply
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in April; Core CPI increased 0.2%
- Tuesday: CPI, Q1 Household Debt and Credit
- Fed April SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April
- Housing May 12th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing Market
- Schedule for Week of May 11, 2025
- May 9th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025
- AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April
- "Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal"
- Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Meeting
- TSA: Airline Travel Unchanged YoY
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March
- Tuesday: Trade Balance
- Recession Watch Metrics
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April
- Housing May 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year
- Monday: ISM Services
- FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February
- Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025
- May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
- Q2 GDP Tracking: Back to Growth, Wide Range
- Heavy Truck Sales Mostly Unchanged YoY in April
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March; Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
- Comments on April Employment Report
- April Employment Report: 177 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Light Vehicles Sales "Beat the tariff" at 17.3 million SAAR in April
- April Employment Preview
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peak
- Construction Spending Decreased 0.5% in March
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in April
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 241,000
April 2025
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year
- PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases Slightly to 4.3% YoY in March
- Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.7%
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 6.1% in March; Down 0.6% YoY
- BEA: Real GDP decreased at 0.3% Annualized Rate in Q1
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 62,000 in April
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: GDP, Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales
- Las Vegas in March: Visitor Traffic Down 7.8% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 10.2% YoY
- "Inside the Auto Tariff Battle: What Washington Is Not Saying Out Loud"
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.2 million in March
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales
- HVS: Q1 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
- Housing April 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week, Up 31.0% Year-over-year
- Monday: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, Dallas Fed Mfg
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 11% YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY
- Schedule for Week of April 27, 2025
- April 25th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 43 States in March (3-Month Basis)
- The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices
- Q1 GDP Tracking: No Growth
- Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in March
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.0% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 222,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Existing Home Sales
- April Vehicle Forecast: Sales at 17.4 million SAAR, Up 8.6% YoY
- AIA: "Business conditions at architecture firms soften further"
- U.S. Births Increased in 2024
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic outlook worsened considerably"
- Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March
- New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index, Beige Book
- Goldman: "When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know?"
- NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs
- MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March
- Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March
- LA Ports: March Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down
- California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets
- Housing April 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March
- Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025
- April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining
- Housing and Demographics
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth
- Friday: Markets Closed for Good Friday
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000
- Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth"
- CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April
- Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March
- Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell
- Las Vegas in February: Visitor Traffic Down 11.9% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 19.5% YoY
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March
- U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024
- Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg
- Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads
- Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different
- Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home Prices Continue to Cool"
- Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025
- April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March
- Friday: PPI
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.6% Year-over-year
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in March
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1%
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis)
- FOMC Minutes: "Inflation was likely to be boosted this year"
- Trump Drops Tariffs to 10%
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
- By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March
- Tuesday: Small Business Optimism
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in March; Down 0.2% Year-over-year
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool
- Recession Watch Metrics
- Housing April 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.7% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March
- Recession Watch
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "54% of outstanding mortgage loans are under 4%"
- Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025
- April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth
- Fed Chair Powell: "Tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected"', Expect "higher inflation and slower growth"
- Comments on March Employment Report
- March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- March Employment Preview
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year (Easter Timing boosted YoY Occupancy)
- ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.8% in March; Employment Index Declined Sharply
- Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services
- Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 47 States in January (3-Month Basis)
- Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020
- Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 155,000 in March
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- Vehicles Sales "Surge" to 17.8 million SAAR in March
- Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds
- Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.0% in March
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February
March 2025
- Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year
- Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February
- Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025
- March 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February; Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
- Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1%
- PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February
- Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 29.2% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY
- Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 15% YoY
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Durable Goods
- March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY
- Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February
- New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales
- TSA: Airline Travel up 3% YoY
- Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook
- Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR
- Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025
- March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining
- Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February"
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range
- Intercontinental Exchange: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in February
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY
- Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales
- LA Ports: February Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down
- FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased"
- AIA: "Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes"
- California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement
- Las Vegas in January: Visitor Traffic Down 1.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up YoY
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February; Length of Time from Start to Completion Declined in 2024
- Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February
- Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
- MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.38% in February
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Cost Uncertainty" in March
- Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February
- Housing March 17th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 29.3% Year-over-year
- Monday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:
- Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025
- March 14th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range
- Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.8% YoY
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year
- The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q4
- Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $0.2 Trillion in Q4
- CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q4 Flow of Funds
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in February
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in February; Core CPI increased 0.2%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI
- Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment “Strategy” (Still in Quantitative Easing Mode, Just Less So)
- CPI Preview
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February
- BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.7 million in January
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025
- Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024
- Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025
- March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty"
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range
- Comments on February Employment Report
- February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- February Employment Preview
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February
- Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
- CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January
- Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly"
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024
- ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY
- Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
- Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While
- Tuesday: Tariffs!
- Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February
- A Comment on GDPNow
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales
- Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January
- ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February
- Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year
- Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
- Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025
- February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining
February 2025
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year
- PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January
- Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2%
- Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low"
- Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
- Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries
- Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
- New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: New Home Sales
- A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
- FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December
- Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg
- February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY
- The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices
- Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Housing Starts and Recessions
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low
- Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025
- February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%
- Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January
- ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY
- California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets
- LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
- AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year"
- FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts
- Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January
- Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes
- MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January
- The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates
- NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February
- Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey
- President Washington's Farewell Address
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
- Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.5% YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low
- Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025
- February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways
- Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January
- Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January
- Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January
- Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025
- Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low
- NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
- Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January
- Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4%
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined
- Wednesday: CPI
- CPI Preview
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January
- Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress
- By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025
- Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024
- Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025
- February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in January; Up 0.8% Year-over-year
- Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
- Comments on January Employment Report
- January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- Predicting the Next Recession
- January Employment Preview
- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024
- CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January
- Trade Deficit increased to $98.4 Billion in December
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 183,000 in January
- MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined
- Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Services
- U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 14 Percent in 2024; 33% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
- Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January
- Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December
- BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in December
- Tuesday: Job Openings
- Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January
- Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate
- ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”
- Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in December
- ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9% in January
- Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year
- Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December
- Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025
- January 31st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
January 2025
- Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
- Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7%
- Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
- Las Vegas in 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Unchanged YoY
- Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales
- NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 5.5% in December; Down 5.0% Year-over-year
- BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q4
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 207,000
- Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
- FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: FOMC Statement
- MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024
- Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November
- Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November
- Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year
- Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December
- New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December
- Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year
- Monday: New Home Sales
- FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy
- January 25th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December
- Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025
- Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.0% Range
- January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY
- Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December
- LA Ports: Inbound Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in December
- Friday: Existing Home Sales
- Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.1% YoY
- 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December
- ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased 4% Year-over-year in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter"
- AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note"
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
- MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December
- Benchmarking the U.S. economy
- 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
- Monday Night Futures
- 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006
- AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up
- Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
- Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023
- Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025
- January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing
- Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range
- Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
- Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December
- Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
- Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
- Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen
- NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January
- Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000
- Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey
- Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"
- Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025
- Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in December
- YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
- BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2%
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: CPI, NY Fed Mfg, Beige Book
- Two Bank Failures in 2024
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025
- CPI Preview
- Tuesday: PPI
- Las Vegas November 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 0.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 8.4%
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
- Housing Jan 13th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 23.6% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- January 12th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4
- Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025
- Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC
- Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range
- Comments on December Employment Report
- December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
- Friday: Employment Report
- The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
- December Employment Preview
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000
- Thursday: National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, Unemployment Claims
- Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December
- FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously anticipated"
- 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
- Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year
- ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in November
- Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
- ISM® Services Index Increases to 54.1% in December
- BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.1 million in November
- Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November
- Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services
- Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q4
- Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December
- Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
- Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year
- Sunday Night Futures
- Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
- Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
- Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
- Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
- January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
- Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December
- Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4%
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak
- ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December
- Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
- Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000
- MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending
- Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?