2024–2026

2026 351

October 2026

1. 31 OctThe 13 AI Giants, from Alphabet to Oracle, Sit on $1.13 Trillion in Cash. They Can Keep Spending on AI even if Markets Get Ugly
2. 30 OctTreasury I Bond “Fixed Rate” Raised to 1.40%, Highest since 2006, for 5.51% Annual Combined Rate for Next 6 Months
3. 30 OctTech Makes a Mess as Wrinkles Start to Show. Markets Are Edgy Now, Aren’t They?
4. 29 OctEconomy Is Running Hot on Strong Consumer Spending Growth & Massive AI Investment Boom
5. 29 OctTHANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! If You Missed the Fall Reminder: Please Donate
6. 28 OctFed Holds Rates, but with 2 Dissenters. A Hold before the Election Was Widely Expected. Dissenters Were Not
7. 28 OctThe Growth of the Vacant Housing Stock in the US, Q3 2026
8. 27 OctWhat the “Housing Shortage” of New Single-Family Homes Looks Like: Ballooning Inventories, Falling Prices, So-So Sales
9. 26 OctMega and Large Investors Pull Back from Housing Market, Become Net Sellers, Small Investors Continue to Pile In
10. 25 OctAI Changed the Internet, and WOLF STREET Needs You More than Ever: Please Donate, Fall 2026 Reminder
11. 24 OctTreasury Market Gets to Breathe: AI Companies Front-Loaded Debt Sales and, Loaded with Massive Cash to Spend, Step Back from the Bond Market
12. 23 OctAIpocalypse Not Now. Economy Is Running Hot: Lots of Growth, Lots of Inflation
13. 22 OctAI Found Catastrophic Vulnerabilities in PHP, Running on 70% of All Websites, incl. WOLF STREET. Then it Was Leaked
14. 21 OctThe Unloved 20-Year Treasury Bond Sells at 5.47%, Highest Auction Yield since… (1986*)
15. 21 OctThe Rug Is Getting Pulled Out from under Demand for Home Purchases in October
16. 20 OctPending Home Sales Plunge to Record Low
17. 19 OctSingle-Family & Multifamily Rents in the US and 22 Large US Metros: Amid Massive Divergence, Rents Are Re-Accelerating
18. 17 OctLong-Term Treasury Yields Buffeted by Hot Inflation and Cracks in AI Mania
19. 16 OctOh Dear, Prices of Single-Family Homes Fell by 11% to 26% in 16 Bigger Markets Already
20. 15 OctBusinesses Slammed by 6.3% PPI Inflation, Worst since 2022, Much Worse than Consumer-Facing Inflation
21. 15 OctWhen AI Spending Starts Slowing, Start Worrying
22. 14 OctInflation Spreads across the Economy, Not Going Back into the Bottle: CPI, Core CPI, Core Services CPI Spike
23. 14 OctThe Social Security COLA for 2027 Will Be Largest since 2023
24. 13 OctSales of Existing Single-Family Homes Scrape along Bottom of 4-Year Dumpster, Supply at 11-Year High. Condo Sales at Record Low, Supply at Record High
25. 12 OctThe CEO’s of Broadcom and Intel Say the Quiet Part out Loud about AI and ROI
26. 11 OctUS Government Sold $728 Billion of Treasuries this Week. Yields at the 3-Year, 10-Year, 30-Year Auctions Highest in 20+ Years, Demand Emerges. Short-Term Yields See Rate Hike
27. 9 OctDespite the AI Debt Pileup, Bond Market Still in La-La-Land, Investors Chasing Yield, Backed by Sky-High AI Stock Valuations
28. 9 OctWho Owns the Commercial Real Estate Debt
29. 8 OctStill QT plus Renewed Rate Hikes at the ECB despite Surging Bond Yields in the Euro Area
30. 7 OctThoughts on the 10-Year Treasury Auction’s 5.30% Yield, Highest since 2000: It Created Demand, Bond Bloodbath Continued
31. 7 OctMortgage Rates Jump to 7.5%, Home Buyers Pull Back Further, Demand Sags
32. 7 OctThough Pussyfooting Around on Rate Hikes, the Bank of Japan Pushes QT to Prop Up the Plunging Yen
33. 6 OctHome Sellers Grapple with Reality: Listing Prices Drop in Florida, California, Texas, and Suddenly even in New York
34. 6 OctOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Re-Spikes to 12.2%, Far Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. End of Extend-and-Pretend Looms
35. 5 OctHome Prices in the Largest 20 European Countries, from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that Fell Back to 2009
36. 4 OctA Wild Week for 10-Year & 30-Year Treasury Yields! Is there Blood in the Streets yet? Is it Good Enough for me to Nibble?
37. 3 OctWhere Are the Jobs? Winners and Losers by Industry
38. 2 OctPrivate Sector Employers Created 46,000 Jobs, Governments Shed 17,000 Jobs
39. 2 OctHomeowners Are Clinging to their Below-4% Mortgages for Dear Life as Mortgage Rates Went over 7%
40. 1 OctAI Data Center Construction Goes Nuts, Power Plants Take Off, but Spending on Factories Is still Twice as Big as Data Centers
41. 1 OctThe US Economy “Is Running Hot,” Lots of Consumer Spending Growth, Lots of Inflation. The Bond Market Sees it Too

September 2026

1. 30 SepNot Even the Massive Changes of Methodology Can Get PCE Inflation Back into the Bottle
2. 29 SepTurnover in the Labor Market Calms Down, after Chaotic Churn
3. 29 SepAnthropic Lost $42 Billion on $4.6 Billion in Revenues in 2025: Leaked IPO Prospectus
4. 28 SepBiggest Borrowers & Lenders in the $13.5-Trillion Repo Market: How the Hedge Fund “Basis Trade” & Money Market Funds Fit In
5. 26 SepLong-Term Treasury Yields Rise to 5.5%, Mortgage Rates to 7.5%, as Bond Market Grapples with a Complex Reality
6. 25 SepWHOOSH, Go Orders at US Manufacturers of “Core Capital Goods,” Fueled by the AI Infrastructure Boom
7. 24 SepWhat the Infamous “Housing Shortage” Looks Like: Inventories of New Single-Family Homes Balloon, Sales Crawl, Prices Sag
8. 23 SepBond Bloodbath: 10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes 13 Basis Points to 5.10% after Hot PMIs with Inflation Written All Over
9. 22 Sep$6.53 Diesel US Average, $8.25 in California, Worsens Already Hot Inflation, amid Record US Diesel Exports. Gasoline & Jet Fuel Prices also Spike
10. 21 SepTech, Science, Social Media Jobs in San Francisco & Silicon Valley Plunge to 2019 Level: AI Magic-Money Boom Is Paper Thin
11. 20 SepTreasury Yields of 2 Years & 3 Years Spike toward 5%, but 10-Year Holds at 5%, Yield Curve Bulges: Some Thoughts on What’s Brewing
12. 18 SepOh Dear, Condo Prices Dropped by 15% to 34% in 34 Bigger Markets. 6 Plunged Back to Where They’d Been 20 Years Ago
13. 18 SepTreasuries Have Become Badly Unappetizing for Foreign Central Banks & Governments
14. 17 SepPending Home Sales Stuck Deep in Mud, Edge up from Down-Revised 2nd Lowest on Record, Supply Hits 10-Year+ High
15. 16 SepFed Finally Hikes, Dot Plot Sees More Rate Hikes, New Rate-Hike Cycle Starts. Bond Market Breathes Small Sigh of Relief
16. 16 SepDespite All Moaning & Groaning, Americans Not in the Mood to Slow Down: Retail Sales Surge even without Gasoline
17. 15 SepSome Thoughts on the 5.42% Yield at the 20-Year Treasury Auction: Bond Market Bloodbath Continues
18. 14 SepMoney-Market Funds & CDs: Americans Pile on Low-Risk Investments despite so-so Yields & Higher Inflation
19. 14 SepThe 10-Year Treasury Yield Briefly Makes it over 5%. Last Time, 5% Instantly Opened the Floodgates of Demand
20. 13 SepLong-Term Treasury Yields Spike, 1- to 7-Year Yields Explode, Mortgage Rates Hit 7.12%, Bond Market Gets Spooked
21. 11 SepInflation Not Going Back into the Bottle: CPI, Core CPI, and Core Services CPI Bounce Back
22. 11 SepBond Market Has a Cow, Treasury Yields Spike across the Board, 10-Year Yield near 5%, 30-Year Yield at 5.37%
23. 10 SepSales of Existing Single-Family Homes Sag Further, Supply Spikes to Decade High. Condo Sales Drop to Data-Low, Supply Spikes to 14-Year High
24. 10 SepPPI Shows Surging Inflation Across Prices that Companies Pay Each Other. The Fed Should Stop Dilly-Dallying Around
25. 9 Sep10-Year to 30-Year Treasury Yields Jump after Bessent Reveals Bond Buybacks for Tomorrow’s Auction
26. 8 SepWhy the Gasoline Price Spike Didn’t Derail Consumer Spending despite all Moaning & Groaning: Auto Dealers Got Caught Too
27. 8 SepBy Dumping US Treasuries to Prop Up the Yen, Japan’s Foreign Currency Reserves Plunged by $95 Billion in August. But Don’t Cry for Japan. These Interventions Are Hugely Profitable
28. 6 SepThe 10-Year Treasury Yield over 5%? Some Thoughts
29. 5 SepWhere Are the Jobs? Winners and Losers by Industry
30. 4 SepTurns Out, the Labor Market is OK Despite All Moaning & Groaning about the Economy or Whatever
31. 3 SepThe Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & 30-Year Mortgage Rate Has Been Stuck at 2 Percentage Points despite Fannie & Freddie MBS Buybacks: Some Thoughts
32. 2 Sep10-Year JGB Yield Hits 3.02%, 30-Year Hits 4.18%: as BOJ Tries to Halt Yen Collapse, Japan’s Bond Market Rises from YCC Grave
33. 1 SepAI Data Center Investment Mania Goes Exponential as Money Gets Thrown at Hurdles & Shortages
34. 1 SepWhat Warsh Referred to with “the Relatively Low Turnover in Today’s Labor Market…”

August 2026

1. 31 AugAI, Leverage out the Wazoo, Sky-High Asset Prices, Private Credit, Interconnectedness, and Government Debt Pose Risks to Global Financial System
2. 30 AugUS Government Sold $797 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.73%, 30-Year Yield 5.22%
3. 28 AugWarsh Speaks, Treasury Yields Jump, 6-Month to 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike
4. 28 AugQuarterly Update on the Ugly Fiscal Condition of the US in Q2 2026
5. 27 AugInflation Exacts its Pound of Flesh: How Americans Earned their Income from All Sources except Capital Gains
6. 27 AugHow Americans Spent their Trillions of Inflation-Adjusted Dollars on Goods & Services and How that Changed since 2015
7. 26 AugInflation Refuses to Go Back into the Bottle: Fed-Favored PCE Price Index
8. 26 AugCredit Card Delinquencies, Payment Volume, Balances, Debt-to-Income, Credit Limits in Q2 2026: Americans and their Plastic
9. 25 AugInventory of New Single-Family Homes Jumps, Prices Drop to Lowest since 2021, Sales Sag
10. 24 AugThat Was Quick: Bessent Issues Hocus-Pocus 3 via CNBC: May “Tap” Treasury General Account to Fund Treasury Buybacks
11. 24 AugThe Bond Market Is Finally Functioning Again, after 14 Years of Financial Repression
12. 21 AugLong-Term Treasury Yields Surge, Wipe Out Effect of Bessent’s Hocus-Pocus Treasury Buybacks in 2 Days. Bond Market Not to Be Played With
13. 21 AugOh Dear, Condo Prices Fell by 15% to 33% in 33 Bigger Markets, Some Below 2006 Levels, as Historic Condo Bubbles Deflate
14. 20 AugTo Absorb $1 Trillion of New Treasuries in 3 Months, as the Debt Ballooned to $40 Trillion, Investors Demanded Higher Yields. Bessent Blows Fuse
15. 19 AugBessent Doubles Yellen’s Hocus-Pocus Treasury Buybacks, Swapping Old Cheap Debt at a Discount for New Expensive Debt
16. 19 AugOh Dear, Prices of Single-Family Homes Fell by 11% to 26% in 15 Bigger Cities Already
17. 18 AugPending Home Sales Drop to 2nd Lowest on Record, Plunge to Record Low in the West, to Near-Record Low in the South
18. 18 AugForeign Central Banks & Governments Dumped Treasuries, Led by China/Hong Kong and Japan to Raise USD for Yen Intervention
19. 17 AugConstruction Inflation for Nonresidential Buildings Soars amid AI Investment Mania
20. 17 AugPrices of Mid-Tier Homes in 33 Big Expensive Cities in America: July 2026 Update
21. 15 AugUS Government Sold $742 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 30-Year Treasury Auction Yield Highest since 2001, 10-Year Auction Yield Highest since 2007
22. 14 AugMy Thoughts about those July Retail Sales
23. 14 AugThe State of Americans’ Auto Debt
24. 13 AugThe Fed Cuts its Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) to Zero, Starting August 14
25. 13 AugPPI Inflation Is in the Revisions? Prior Month Services PPI & Core PPI Massively Revised Higher Today
26. 13 AugHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q2 2026
27. 12 AugCPI Dragged Down by Energy, Hotels & Motels (Shelter), Auto Insurance, and Meat (Finally)
28. 12 AugHousehold Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Collections & Bankruptcies in Q2 2026
29. 11 AugSales of Existing Single-Family Homes Sink Deeper into Mud, Supply Jumps to 10-Year High, Condo Supply at 14-Year High
30. 11 AugBuy Low, Sell High: Intel Boosts its Massive Sale of Shares
31. 10 AugIntel Joins Race to Sell Shares at Sky-High Prices after Spike. Big Tech Figured it out, the Economy Benefits, Maybe Not Investors
32. 9 AugUS Government Sold $638 Billion of Just T-Bills this Week, 10-Year Treasury Yield Dips after Big Kahuna Yen Intervention
33. 7 AugSelf-Employed Workers (the “Gig Workers”), Part-Time Workers, and Multiple Jobholders: Some Thoughts
34. 7 AugThe Private Sector Gains 30,000 jobs, but Local Governments Shed 57,000 Jobs. Supply of Labor Continues to Shrink
35. 7 AugDerivative Losses Squish Already Crushed UWM, the Largest Mortgage Lender in the US: SPACs just Keep on Giving
36. 6 AugOne Thing Is Clear about the AI Boom: It’s Burning Huge Amounts of Cash, and Alphabet Needs More
37. 5 AugAnother Hit to Demand in the Housing Market: Purchases by Foreign Buyers Have Plunged by 76% from Peak
38. 4 AugLabor Market Turnover Increased all Year, Bouncing Off Late 2025 Low. What that Means
39. 4 AugAI Data Center Construction Spending Goes Exponential (But in Business, Exponential Curves Can’t Last)
40. 3 AugWhy the US-Japan Joint Intervention to Prop Up the Yen? Fear of Treasury Yields Blowing Out if Japan Becomes a Forced Seller
41. 2 AugSix Years into Bond Bear Market, 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.28%, Yield Curve Steepens, but Spreads Are still too Narrow

July 2026

1. 31 JulSPR Gets Drained to Dump Crude Oil on Global Markets: US Exports of Crude Oil & Petroleum Products Spike
2. 31 JulInflation in the Overall Economy, Hitting Consumers, Businesses, and Governments, Was Really Bad in Q2, even without Energy
3. 30 JulRed-Hot Inflation & (Inflation-Adjusted) Strong Domestic Private-Sector Demand Marks Q2 GDP. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Dips to 121.5%
4. 30 JulStocks Tank, Long-Term Treasury Yields Jump after Warsh Starts Talking
5. 29 JulFed Holds Rates after “Good Family Fight” and 3 Dissenters, after Enormous Uncertainty in the Markets
6. 28 JulGrowth of the Vacant Housing Stock in the US
7. 28 JulKorean KOSPI Crashes 10.8% Today, -34% in 25 Days, after 300% Spike, as Consensual Hallucination Fades
8. 27 JulHow Massive AI Data Center Investment Pushes the Economy & Prices: See Durable Goods Orders
9. 25 JulLong-Term Treasury Yields Jump as Bloodied Bond Market Gets Edgier about Inflation & the Massive New Debt
10. 24 JulNew Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further amid Declining Sales and once again Growing Inventory Glut
11. 24 JulBond Market Just Flipped to “Rate Hike in July” as 2-Month Treasury Yield Spiked by 13 Basis Points
12. 23 JulAI May Not Cause Total Jobs Armageddon Afterall: Google Reports on How AI Is Being Used at Work
13. 22 JulMortgage Rates Rise to 6.77%, Highest in a Year, Driven by Bond Market Fears of Inflation & the Ballooning Debt
14. 21 JulSingle-Family & Multifamily Rents in Face of an Onslaught of New Supply & Fading Population Growth
15. 20 JulOh Dear, Condo Prices Fell by 15% to 33% in 30 Bigger Cities Already. Some Dropped Back to 2006 Levels
16. 19 Jul30-Year Treasury Yield still 5.06%, 30-Year TIPS Yield Highest since 2010 Reintroduction, Yield Curve Prepped for Rate Hike
17. 18 JulHome Prices in 33 Big Expensive Cities in America: 25 Fell Year-over-Year in June, 2 Rose to New Highs
18. 17 JulFuel for the 2nd Wave of Inflation: Import Prices of Manufactured Goods, Driven by Computers & Electronic Products
19. 16 JulAmericans Splurge Online and at Vehicle Dealers, instead of Buying Homes? YOLO? Retail Sales without Gas Stations Jump for 5th Month
20. 16 JulPending Home Sales Plunge to Near-Record Low in the Data, Hit Low in the West. Since then, Mortgage Rates Rose Further
21. 15 JulProducer Price Inflation beyond Energy: “Core” PPI Accelerates to 4.7%, Services PPI to 4.6%. Lots of Inflation Going on in Here
22. 15 JulLargest “Foreign” Holders of US Treasuries, including US Hedge Funds Engaged in the “Basis Trade” & Corporate America
23. 14 JulGasoline Plunged in June and lots of Month-to-Month CPI Squiggles Happened to Drop Simultaneously, but that Won’t Last
24. 13 JulFed Should Hike “in the Near Term” if CPI & PPI this Week Are “Hot”: Fed’s Waller. So at the July Meeting? Treasury Yields Jump
25. 11 JulUS Government Sold $743 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 30-Year Yield at 5.06% on Inflation, Lax Fed, Supply Fears
26. 10 JulGasoline Price Spike Triggered Massive Price Surge of Used EVs as Auto Dealers Bid them up at Auctions
27. 10 JulThe US, Largest Crude Oil Producer in the World, Produced 42% More than Saudi Arabia and 37% More than Russia in 2025
28. 9 JulSupply of Existing Single-Family Homes Jumps to 10-Year High, Condo Supply to 14-Year High. Sales Slip Deeper into Deep Freeze. Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.49%
29. 8 JulAI Investment Mania Has Begun to Percolate through the Economy, and the Fed Has Begun to Fret about the Effects
30. 8 JulQT plus Rate Hikes: ECB Sheds €149 billion of QE Assets in Q2, -52% since mid-2022, Marks Gold Down by €160 Billion
31. 7 JulConsumer “Inflation Expectations” Throw the Fed another Curveball
32. 7 JulHome Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe in Q1 2026, from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that’s Back to 2010
33. 6 JulMy Take on the Zero-Sum New-Vehicle Market in the US: Decades of Stagnation & Decline Interrupted by Steep Plunges
34. 5 JulSix-Month Treasury Yield Rises to 4%: Bond Market Tells the Fed to Get on with the Rate Hikes
35. 3 JulQT instead of Rate Hikes to Put a Floor under Plunging Yen: Bank of Japan Sheds 15.6% of its Massive Assets
36. 2 JulLabor Market Tightens despite Tepid Job Growth as Labor Force Declines further amid Crackdown on Illegal Immigration
37. 2 JulTesla’s Deliveries Spike 25% in Q2, despite End of Federal EV Incentives, as Gasoline Prices Soared. Shares Plunge
38. 1 JulUnwinding the “Lock-in Effect” Suddenly Stalls as Homeowners Stopped Paying Off Below-3% Mortgages
39. 1 JulYen Craters to 4-Decade Low, JGB Yields at 3-Decade Highs: Monetary Policy Mess Comes Home to Roost

June 2026

1. 30 JunInflation & Nominal Economic Growth to the Rescue: The US Government’s Ugly Fiscal Mess
2. 25 JunInflation in “Core Services” Surges, plus AI’s Impact on Electricity & Goods: Inflation beyond Gasoline
3. 20 JunOut Hiking in Europe. Shop (Partially) Closed through June
4. 19 JunUS Government Sold $518 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 6-Month to 2-Year Treasury Yields Spike on Warsh’s “Regime Change” at the Fed
5. 18 JunEra of “Powell Was Dovish” Is Over: Warsh’s Five Taskforces
6. 17 Jun“Regime Change” at the Fed: Fed Chair Warsh Makes the First Moves
7. 16 JunThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, May 2026
8. 15 JunGovernment Uses Strategic Petroleum Reserve as Cudgel to Beat Down Oil-Price Mania: Worked for Second Time
9. 13 JunUS Government Sold $646 billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 2nd Wave of Inflation Approaches 10-Year Treasury Yield
10. 12 JunMoney-Market Funds & CDs: Americans and their Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as “Real” Yields Turn Negative
11. 12 JunWhat Homebuilder Lennar Said about the Tough Housing Market: Average Sales Price Down 24% from Peak, back to 2017
12. 11 JunProducer Price Inflation beyond Energy: 6-Month Services PPI, “Core” Goods PPI & “Core” PPI Blow by 6%, Worst since 2022
13. 10 JunCPI Inflation 4.25%, Blows by 2-Year Treasury Yield, Closes in on 10-Year Treasury, Driven by “Supercore” Services, Gasoline, Electricity
14. 9 JunSupply of Existing Single-Family Homes at 10-Year High, Condo Supply at 12-Year High, Sales still in Freezer
15. 8 JunAs Home Sellers Grapple with Reality, Listing Prices Fall by Most in at Least a Decade
16. 6 JunThere’s Trouble Brewing in the Treasury Market
17. 5 JunSemiconductor Stocks Roll Over, Micron & Broadcom Tank 20% in 2 Days, Drag Rest of Market Along
18. 5 JunJob Growth Trend Turns Around Decidedly after Weakening for Years, while Immigration Crackdown Caps Supply of Labor
19. 4 JunWho Needs Bitcoin & Cryptos (-50%) amid the Semiconductor & Miracle IPO Mania?
20. 4 JunAI Investment Boom Sucks Up Hoarded Cash from Stock Market Investors & Companies, Sprays it into the Real Economy
21. 3 JunHousing Market’s Crucial “Spring Selling Season” Winds Down with a Whimper. So Maybe Next Year?
22. 2 JunAnd More Data Showing a Weirdly Decent Labor Market
23. 1 JunAs Prices Spike, Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Rate in 4 Years, Orders Surge, Supplier Deliveries Slow

May 2026

1. 31 MayUS Government Sold $742 billion of Treasury Securities last Week. T-bill Yields now Below Surging Inflation. Bond Market Bets on Rate Hikes
2. 30 MayThe Magnitude of the Numbers Is just Mindboggling: 12 U.S. Companies, $30 Trillion
3. 28 MayPCE Inflation Surges Further Away from Fed’s Target, now Nearly Double the Fed’s Target, and 5+ Years above Target
4. 27 MayMicron, the WTF AI Mania Chart of the Year
5. 25 MayOh Dear, Condo Prices already Dropped by 15% to 33% in 24 Bigger Markets, Some Back to Where They’d Been 20 Years Ago
6. 24 May10-Year TIPS v. 10-Year Treasury Securities: Bond Market Has Long Been Delusional about Actual CPI Inflation
7. 22 MayPrices of Single-Family Homes already Down 10% to 26% in these 15 Bigger Cities: Every Market is Different
8. 21 MayCredit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Debt-to-Income, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q1 2026: Americans and their Revolving Credit
9. 20 MayBond Bloodbath Worsens on Inflation, Lax Fed, and Flood of New Debt. Mortgage Rates hit 6.75%
10. 19 MayAuto Loan Balances, Debt-to-Income Ratio, and Delinquencies of Subprime & Prime Auto Loans in Q1 2026. How Bad Is it?
11. 18 MayFood Inflation in America by Product: It Boils down to a Sharp Acceleration on Top of Already Very High Prices
12. 17 MayThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, April 2026
13. 16 MayUS Government Sold $691 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.6%, 30-Year Yield to 5.12% as 2nd Wave of Inflation Takes Off
14. 15 MayHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q1 2026
15. 13 MayProducer Price Inflation Explodes as the Services PPI Blows Out on Top of the Energy Price Spike
16. 13 MayHousehold Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Collections & Bankruptcies in Q1 2026
17. 12 MayCPI Inflation Blows Past Fed Rates as Core Services, Gasoline, Electricity, and Food Spike. Fed’s “Real” Rates Are now Negative
18. 11 MaySupply of Existing Single-Family Homes Rises to Highest in 10 Years, Condo Supply Highest since 2012, Sales in Deepfreeze
19. 9 MayHousing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment at Mortgage Lenders and Mortgage Brokers
20. 8 MayWeirdest U.S. Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen: Supply of Labor Shrinks Further while Private-Sector Jobs Grow
21. 8 MayPrices of Used EVs Spike, from already Lofty Levels, as Gasoline Prices Spike. But Electricity Prices also Soared
22. 7 MayConstruction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Chip Plants, Powerplants, Office Buildings: Boom one End, Bust the Other
23. 6 MayHousing Market’s Crucial “Spring Selling Season” Is in Tatters
24. 5 MayNew Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further amid Inventory Glut. But Lower Prices Beget Higher Sales
25. 4 MayBond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats
26. 3 MayThe US Government sold $723 billion of Treasury Securities this Week. Inflation Jumped and Met T-bill Yields
27. 1 MayGap between Single-Family Rents & Multifamily Rents Widens to Record as Multifamily under Pressure
28. 1 MayTHANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! If You Missed the Spring Reminder: Please Donate

April 2026

1. 30 AprInflation in the Entire US economy Is Rocking and Rolling, and It’s Not Just Energy
2. 30 AprWithout Government Spending & Trade, GDP Rose by 2.5% in Q1, Boosted by AI Investments. Debt-to-GDP Ticks up to 122.6%
3. 29 AprRegime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants a Smaller Balance Sheet
4. 29 AprThis Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Hoot. Fed Holds Rates amid 4 Dissents, most since 1992: 1 Dovish, 3 Hawkish
5. 28 AprHousing Unit Growth Far Outruns Population Growth: Vacant Units on the Market and the “Accidental Landlords”
6. 27 AprTwo More Imploded Real-Estate Brokerage Stocks Tie the Knot: REMAX -85% from Peak, Real Brokerage -70%
7. 25 AprUS Government Sold $524 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. Inflation to Surpass T-Bill Yields. Brutal Bond Math
8. 24 AprSenate Confirmation of Warsh, who Wants to Reduce the Fed’s Balance Sheet, Gets Unstuck as DOJ Ends Powell Investigation
9. 24 AprDynamics and Surging Magnitude of US LNG Exports: Started 10 Years Ago in a Glut of Natural Gas that Collapsed the Price
10. 23 AprHedge-Fund Meme-Stock Short-Squeeze Queen Avis Budget [CAR] Implodes by 72% in 26 Hours
11. 22 AprRTO Languishes Despite Efforts to Force it to Happen, only Minuscule Reduction in WFH since Early 2023
12. 21 AprDid Americans Scrimp at Other Retailers to Buy Gas? Nope, not Americans. Born to Splurge
13. 21 AprPending Home Sales Still in the Deepfreeze, Drop in the West & Midwest, Tick up in the South & Northeast
14. 20 AprCondo Prices Dropped by 12% to 31% in 31 Bigger Markets. Some Are where They’d Been 20 Years ago, such as Oakland
15. 18 AprNasdaq up by 60% since Liberation Day Selloff and by 100% in 3 Years. People Are Just Having Fun
16. 17 AprThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, March 2026
17. 16 AprDear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2026 Reminder
18. 16 AprThe Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update
19. 15 AprCar & Truck Inflation in America: Cost of Vehicle Ownership Soared by 36% since 2020
20. 14 AprPPI Jumps by over 6% Month-to-Month Annualized for 3rd Month in a Row. Energy Price Spike just Latest Wrinkle
21. 13 AprSingle-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low
22. 11 AprUS Government Sold $620 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 10-Year Yield Ends at 4.31%, 30-Year Yield at 4.91%
23. 10 AprFirst Wave of Energy Price Spikes Hit CPI Inflation
24. 10 AprUS Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025
25. 9 AprThe Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak
26. 9 AprSix-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention
27. 8 AprHome Prices in the Largest European Countries Range from Housing Bubbles to a Market that Fell back to 2010
28. 8 AprUsed Vehicle Wholesale Prices Jumped. That’s How it Started in 2020 when Broad Inflation Took Off
29. 7 AprBank of Japan Accelerated QT Further, Started Selling Equity ETFs & J-REITs, Shed 12.6% of its Assets since the Peak
30. 7 AprAbout those Orders for Durable Goods that Factories in the US Received
31. 6 AprJapanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead
32. 5 AprBond Market Gets Nervous about Rising Inflation, Ballooning Debt, Sees Rate Hike. Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.46%
33. 3 AprThis is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen
34. 2 AprMy Take on Auto Sales in March – Come to Think of it, My Take on the Tough & Ugly US Auto Market
35. 2 AprThe Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job
36. 2 AprInventory of Homes for Sale in California Rose to the 2nd Highest for March in over a Decade as Demand Withered: Biggest Markets
37. 1 AprRetail Sales Plunged in February. But Huge Seasonal Adjustments Caused them to Jump. A Look at Both

March 2026

1. 31 MarStasis in the US Labor Market: a Peculiar Situation
2. 31 MarFarm Action’s Letter to Congress, Lambasting the Concentration of Fertilizer Makers and its Impact on Prices
3. 30 MarHumana, Caught up in the Metastasizing Medicare Overbilling Scandal, Enters Our Imploded Stocks
4. 28 MarStatus of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold
5. 27 MarUpdate on the “Lock-in Effect” in the Housing Market: Below-3% & 4% Mortgages Fade Very Slowly
6. 27 MarUS Winemakers and Beer Brewers Face an Existential Crisis: Plunging Alcohol Consumption
7. 26 MarThe US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market
8. 26 MarFed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion
9. 25 MarThere Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop
10. 24 Mar$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War
11. 23 MarConstruction of Data Centers, Power Plants, Factories, and Office Buildings: Boom & Bust
12. 22 Mar2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On
13. 20 MarTreasury Yields Spike, 10-Year to 4.39%, 30-Year to 4.96%, Mortgage Rates to 6.5%, as the Bond Market Gets Antsy
14. 20 MarMoney-Market Funds & CDs: Americans’ Ballooning Piles of Interest-Earning Low-Risk Investments
15. 20 MarPrices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009
16. 19 MarBond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down
17. 18 MarFed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth
18. 18 MarHot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem
19. 17 MarThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, February 2026
20. 17 MarPending Home Sales Ticked Up from Record Low. But Now Mortgage Rates Spiked Back over 6.3%
21. 17 MarAnother Mostly Empty Office Tower in San Francisco Sells for 75% Off: Juul’s Abandoned Headquarters
22. 15 MarTreasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears
23. 14 MarWhat it Takes to Sell Homes in this Market: Lennar Cuts Average Selling Price to 2017 Level
24. 13 MarCore PCE Inflation Hits 3.1%, Worst in 2 Years, in Unique Twist Blows way past CPI Inflation. Driven by Core Services
25. 13 MarEnergy Inflation for Americans
26. 12 MarFood Inflation in America
27. 11 MarCPI Inflation Rose on Food & Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER
28. 10 MarSupply of Single-Family Homes Surges to Highest for February in 9 Years, Demand Stuck in the Deepfreeze
29. 10 MarGasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation
30. 9 MarCrude Oil WTI Plunged by 24%, Back Below $88, from $116 Overnight. Gasoline Futures -16%. Manic Speculation Unwinds
31. 9 MarCrude Oil WTI Spikes by 28% Overnight to $116, Gasoline Futures +17%. Asian Stocks Plunge, US Stock Futures Deep Red
32. 8 Mar10-Year & 30-Year Treasury Yields Jump, Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage Rates Jump too, as Inflation Fears Move to the Top
33. 7 MarWhere Americans Spend their Trillions on Goods and How that Changed since 2015
34. 6 MarSupply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot
35. 6 MarUpdate on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases
36. 5 MarCompanies Report Raging Inflation, Except in Wages & Rents
37. 4 MarU.S. Gasoline Demand Fell Further amid Long-Term Structural Shift: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption
38. 3 MarOil Jumps, but It’s Not the 1970s anymore: US Crude Oil Production Hits Record, Net Exports Soar, Imports Decline
39. 2 Mar10-Year US Treasury Yield Flipflops, Spikes by 14 Basis Points to 4.07%, after Plunging to 3.93%, amid Massive Volatility
40. 2 MarDrill Baby Drill for 20+ Years: US Natural Gas Production Jumps to Record, Exports via LNG & Pipeline Spike to Record in 2025
41. 1 MarConstruction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Powerplants, and Office Buildings: Boom, Bust, and in Between

February 2026

1. 27 FebServices PPI Inflation Explodes. Goods PPI Jumps as Companies Shuffle Tariffs to Each Other. Food & Energy Plunge
2. 26 FebAI, the Immigration Crackdown, and Mind-Blowing Overhiring in 2020-2022 Are Now Rattling the Labor Market
3. 25 FebCredit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q4 2025
4. 24 FebWHOOSH Goes Demand for Electricity. US Power Generation by Source in 2025: Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Hydro, Solar, Biomass, Geothermal, Petroleum
5. 24 FebBiggest Single-Family Rental Landlords, Mom & Pop Landlords, and Trump’s Push to Block Big Guys from Buying More Homes
6. 22 FebUS Treasury Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to 122% in Q4, Highest since Covid Spike
7. 21 FebPCE Inflation (2.9%, 3.0%) and GDP Inflation (3.7%) Got Hotter, but CPI Inflation (2.4%) Cooled. Why? The Fed Needs to Pay Serious Attention
8. 20 FebHot Inflation & Plunge in Federal Government Spending Slam Real GDP. But Trade Deficit Least Bad in 2 Years
9. 20 FebSupreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA-Based Tariffs, Doesn’t Rule on Refunds (“Likely to be a ‘Mess’”)
10. 19 FebPending Home Sales Drop to Record Low in the Data, from Already Low Levels, on Big Drops in the South & Midwest
11. 19 FebSingle-Family & Multifamily Construction: Bring on the Supply just as Population Growth Slows to a Crawl
12. 18 FebOrders for Durable Goods at US Manufacturers Jump 7.8% in 2025 to Record on AI Infrastructure & Civilian Aircraft
13. 17 FebSerious Delinquency Rates for Subprime & Prime Auto Loans, Balances, and Debt-to-Income Ratio in Q4 2025
14. 15 FebUS Government Sold $701 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. As Deficits Balloon, Bond Math Is Relentlessly Brutal
15. 13 FebServices Inflation Spikes in January, but Bad-Joke OER CPI Pushes Down on Year-over-Year CPI. OER is Huge and Bad
16. 12 FebSales of Single-Family Homes Plunged (even in the West in Warm Weather), Supply Surged, Median Price Nearly Flat YoY
17. 12 FebHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q4 2025
18. 11 FebPrivate Sector Ramps Up Hiring. Job Losses Mount at Federal & State Governments
19. 11 FebGrowth of Nonfarm Jobs in 2024 and 2025 Much Weaker than Previously Reported: The Annual Benchmark Revisions
20. 11 FebHousehold Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcies in Q4 2025
21. 10 FebNot Seasonally Adjusted, Retail Sales Spiked by $80 billion, the Most for any December Ever by far, to $817 Billion, the Most Ever
22. 10 FebDespite 4 Years of Mass-Layoffs at Alphabet & Amazon, Headcount Rose in 2025, Nearly Flat with Peak, as Hiring Continued
23. 9 FebSoftware Company monday.com Plunges 22% today, -82% from High, -50% from IPO Price, into our Imploded Stocks
24. 8 FebAMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META, ORCL Plan $700 Billion in Largely AI-Related Capex in 2026. Where the Cash Comes From
25. 6 FebHere We Go Again on Inflation: Used Vehicle Prices Jump in January, Expected to Jump More in Record Tax-Refund Season
26. 6 FebBitcoin Treasury Company Strategy [MSTR] Plunged 77% from its High, Joins our Imploded Stocks. Bitcoin Plunged only 50%
27. 5 FebCompanies Hang on to their Workers, and Workers Cling to their Jobs: One More Factor why it’s Tough for Job Seekers
28. 4 FebADP Employment Report Massively Revised to 2010 with Huge Erratic Differences in Month-to-Month Job Creation & Losses
29. 4 FebPayPal Shares Plunged 86% from the 2021 Goofball High and Right into our Imploded Stocks
30. 3 FebOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 12.3%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown Peak
31. 3 FebFigma, IPO Hotshot AI-Powered Design Software Firm, Joins Our Imploded Stocks
32. 2 FebMiles Driven Hit Record in 2025, beating 2019, amid Lethargic RTO, Mass Transit Blues, but a Jump in Population
33. 1 FebUS Government Sold $766 Billion of Treasuries this Week. Yield Curve Steepened as 30-Year Treasury Yield Rose to 4.87%

January 2026

1. 31 JanMarkets’ Reaction to Warsh: Silver Collapses, Gold Plunges, Dollar Jumps, Treasuries Yawn, Stocks Drop, already Battered Cryptos Sink
2. 30 JanProducer Price Index Jumps on Disconcerting Spike in Services PPI. Food & Energy Prices Fall
3. 29 JanCalifornia’s Population Declines Again, -200,000 since 2020: Relief for “Housing Shortage” as Homes Keep Getting Built
4. 29 JanUnemployment Insurance Drops to Lowest since Sept. 2024, Layoffs Are Low, Show No Signs of Weak Labor Market
5. 28 JanFed Refuses to Cut, Shifts Hawkish in the Statement, with Two Dissenters
6. 27 JanPopulation Growth Slows to Crawl, Net Migration May Turn “Negative”: Census Bureau’s New Population Estimates
7. 26 JanHard to Imagine an Economic Slowdown until this Business Investment Boom Fizzles. Core Capital Goods Orders Show Why
8. 25 JanUS Government Struggles to Keep a Lid on 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates
9. 23 JanAmericans’ Incomes from Wages & Salaries, Businesses & Farms, Rentals, Dividends & Interest, and Transfer Receipts
10. 23 JanNew-Vehicle Sales in California, 2025: Tesla Loses Ground, Toyota Widens Lead, Honda Passes Tesla, but Model Y still #1 Bestseller by Far
11. 22 JanInflation-Adjusted Consumer Spending, Incomes, and Government Transfer Receipts
12. 21 JanPending Home Sales Plunge across the US. Midwest Sees Worst Sales on Record, Northeast 2nd Worst
13. 20 JanJapanese Government 30-Year Yield Explodes after Threats of Increased Spending & Tax Cuts: Bond Vigilantes Rising from their Graves?
14. 19 JanEnergy Inflation for Households: Electricity, Natural Gas Piped to the Home, Gasoline, and Other Fuels
15. 17 JanUS Government Sold $654 Billion of Treasuries this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.24%, Highest since Sep 2, despite 3 Rate Cuts
16. 16 JanCondo Prices Now Below 2005-2007 Housing Bubble Peaks in 8 Cities, including Oakland, Chicago, and 2 Cities in Florida
17. 16 JanFood Inflation Gets Hot, but Not Every Item: A Look at Beef, Chicken, Coffee, Eggs, Dairy, Fruit & Vegetables, “Other Foods”
18. 15 JanThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Dec 2025: Single-Family & Condo Prices Hit Multi-Year Lows in Toronto, Spike in Montreal, Quebec
19. 14 JanSales of Existing Homes in 2025 Drop to Lowest since 1995, Sellers Massively Yank Listings off the Market, Waiting for Spring
20. 13 JanBad-Joke Housing CPIs, Absurd Health Insurance CPI Still Mar Today’s CPI Report, Repress Year-over-Year CPI Inflation
21. 12 JanHousehold Money-Market Funds & Large CDs Hit Records despite Lower Yields. But Sorry, It’s Not “Cash on the Sidelines”
22. 12 JanJustice Department Subpoenas the Fed, Threatens Powell with Criminal Indictment. Powell Comes out Swinging. Stock Futures Tank
23. 11 JanHome Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe: Splendid Housing Bubbles in Some, Prices back to 2010 in Others
24. 9 JanJob Growth in the Private-Sector, Massive Job Losses at Federal & State Governments in H2 2025
25. 9 JanFed Balance Sheet Drops by $67 Billion for the Week
26. 8 JanTrade Deficit Drops to Least Terrible Level since 2009, upon which Atlanta Fed GDPNow Doubles Q4 GDP Forecast to +5.4%
27. 7 JanADP Employment Report: +41,000, Mostly at Medium-Size Companies. Small Companies Had First Payroll Gain in 5 Months
28. 7 JanUgly Charts of US Auto Sales, 2025: Stellantis, Nissan Flirt with Catastrophe. GM, Ford, Honda Sales Rise but far below Peaks. Toyota & Hyundai-Kia Set Records
29. 6 JanBank of Japan’s QT Cuts $502 billion from Balance Sheet. JGB Yields Surge as BOJ Steps away from Bond Market
30. 5 JanFed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) Drops to Zero, from $75 billion on the Last Balance Sheet as Yearend Liquidity Turmoil Dissolves
31. 4 Jan“Locked-in” Homeowners Nevertheless Pay Off Below-4% Mortgages: their Share Drops to Lowest since Q4 2020
32. 3 JanYear-End Liquidity Turmoil on Fed’s Balance Sheet. Plus $38 Billion in T-bills Replace $15 Billion in MBS, Add $23 Billion in RMPs
33. 2 JanTesla’s Deliveries Plunge, Worst Q4 since 2022. Annual Sales Drop for 2nd Year. Cybertruck now a Failed Model
34. 1 JanLong View of the S&P 500 & Stock Markets of Canada, Japan, China, Hong Kong, India, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain

2025 401

December 2025

1. 30 DecAsking Rents in 33 Bigger Cities: Where they Spike, Rise more Slowly, or Fall. US Rents for Single-Family Homes Surge, Pull Further away from Multifamily
2. 29 DecIPO Bloodletting after “Pop” in 2025: Venture Global, CoreWeave, Figma, Klarna, Bullish, Circle Internet, Navan, Firefly, Fermi…
3. 26 DecStatus of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to Lowest since 1994
4. 24 DecUS Government Interest Payments to Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q3 2025
5. 23 DecWHOOSH, Went the Economy in Q3. The Fed Needs to Watch Out, Economy Is Running Hot
6. 22 DecCarry Trade at Risk: Japan’s 10-Year JGB Yield Hits 25-Year High, Yield Curve Steepens, Finance Ministry Verbally Props Up Yen
7. 21 DecOh Deary, Condo Prices Already Dropped by 12% to 30% in these 28 Bigger Markets
8. 19 DecSingle-Family Home Prices Barely up YoY, Condo Prices Fall, Highest Supply for Nov in Years, Sales at Housing Bust Levels
9. 18 DecToday’s Doctored CPI Inflation Release is like a Bad Joke, but Very Serious (though it Suits the Administration’s Narrative)
10. 17 DecLennar Further Cuts Average Sales Price of New Homes, to Lowest since 2017, -25% from Peak: That’s what this Housing Market Needs
11. 17 DecThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in November 2025
12. 16 DecThe Fed Should Look at Private-Sector Jobs Growth and Not Get Distracted by the Massive Federal Government Job Cuts
13. 15 DecTreasury Yield Curve Steepens Sharply, Yields from 2 Years to 30 Years Have Risen as the Fed Cut Three Times this Year
14. 12 DecUS Government Sold $602 Billion of Treasuries this Week, 10-Year Treasury Yield Bounces Back to 4.20%, 30-Year Yield to 4.86%, Highest since Sep 4, after Fed Cuts
15. 12 DecTHANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! And if You Missed the Fall Reminder: Please Donate
16. 11 DecLayoffs Show No Signs of a Weakening Labor Market
17. 11 DecWhy the Fed’s “Reserve Management Purchases” Are Not QE
18. 10 DecThis Fed Meeting Must Have Been an Epic Circus
19. 10 DecCEO of ICE on Making Mortgages “Portable” & “Assumable” in the Era of MBS, and on AI at ICE and its Impact on Hiring
20. 9 DecJob Openings Jump by 443,000 in 2 Months: Labor Market Retightens, Fed Faces Scenario of Solid Job Market and Accelerating Inflation
21. 8 DecIn Edgy Bond Market, 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3-Month High, 10-Year Yield Hits 1-Month High, Mortgage Rates Jump
22. 8 DecThe Fed Will Talk a lot about “Reserve Balances” and “Reserve Management Purchases” at its FOMC Meetings
23. 6 DecNAR Says Typical First-Time Homebuyer Age Was 40 in 2025, up from 33 in 2021. But Is this Accurate?
24. 5 DecCMBS: “Commercial Mortgage BS”
25. 5 DecFed Balance Sheet QT: -$37 Billion in November, -$2.43 Trillion from Peak, to $6.54 Trillion
26. 4 DecLow-Fire Low-Hire Job Market, after Massive Overhiring by Big Tech & Others in 2021 & 2022
27. 3 DecPrivate-Sector Job Trends by Industry: From Job Destruction in “Information” to Job Creation in “Mining & Natural Resources”
28. 2 DecServices Inflation Accelerates Further in the Euro Area, Drives Overall & Core CPI Higher
29. 2 DecMortgage Rates, 10-Year & 30-Year Treasury Yields Jump, Wiping out in One Day the Entire Drop of Last Week
30. 1 DecManufacturing Grew for 10th Month of 11 in 2025: S&P. Manufacturing Declined for 9th Month Straight: ISM. What Gives?

November 2025

1. 30 NovMortgage Rates Are Not Too High. What’s too High Are Home Prices that Exploded by 40-70% in 2 Years, Creating the “Affordability Crisis”
2. 28 NovNew Vehicle Inflation: the “WOLF STREET Ford F-150 XLT & Toyota Camry LE Price Index” Going back to 1990 v. CPI
3. 27 NovAmazing How Central Bank Money-Printing Reversed around the World after the Inflation Shock
4. 26 NovDespite their Ultra-Sour Mood, Americans Splurge at Restaurants & Bars like There’s No Tomorrow
5. 25 NovPPI Inflation Bounces Back
6. 24 NovAI-Spending War and AI-Debt Pile-Up Could Squeeze Share Buybacks
7. 23 NovThe 14 Bigger Cities & Counties with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -25%) from Peak to October
8. 21 NovCredit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q3 2025
9. 20 NovFederal Government Job Cuts Still Hitting Employment Data: The Labor Market by Major Industry in Charts
10. 20 NovThe 24 Bigger Cities where Condo Prices Have Dropped by 12% to 29% through October
11. 20 NovTreasury Market Scuttles Hope for December Rate Cut, Doubts January Cut, after Hawkish Fed Minutes
12. 18 NovSocial Security Fiscal Year 2025: Trust Fund Balance, Income, Outgo, Deficit, and Interest Rates
13. 18 NovAnother Sign that a Major Rethink of the Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet Is Gaining Momentum
14. 17 NovConstruction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Powerplants, and Office Buildings: Boom at One End, Bust at the Other End
15. 17 NovThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in October 2025
16. 14 NovGovernment Sold $694 Billion of Treasuries this Week, Debt Hits $38.2 Trillion, Treasury Yields Rise Further, Shift to T-Bills Begins
17. 13 NovData Fog Engulfing October due to Government Shutdown May “Never” Be Fully Lifted
18. 12 NovInflation Rages in Streaming Services
19. 11 NovA 50-Year Mortgage Does Nothing for “Affordability,” Is a Terrible Deal for Homeowners and a Superb Deal for Banks & Investors
20. 11 NovHow Americans Handled their Auto Loans & Leases in Q3 2025: Subprime & Prime Delinquency Rates, Balances, and Burden
21. 10 NovEntire Treasury Yield Curve from 3 Months to 30 Years Has Risen since Fed’s Rate Cut. Mortgage Rates too. Bond Market Edgy about Inflation & Supply
22. 8 NovHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q3 2025
23. 7 NovFed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in October, -$2.39 Trillion from Peak, to $6.57 Trillion, Standing Repo Facility Back to Zero
24. 6 NovCarMax Enters our Imploded Stocks. Used-Car Dealers Face Reckoning after Jacking Up Prices by 55% in 2 Years
25. 6 NovHousehold Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcies of our (not so) Drunken Sailors in Q3 2025
26. 5 NovPrivate-Sector Job Growth Lumbers Along after Getting Hammered by the 2024 Benchmark Adjustments in Sep & Aug
27. 4 NovRepo Market Liquidity Pressures Made Worse by Government Shutdown, but the Fed’s SRF Did its Job and Went Back to Sleep
28. 4 NovUS Government’s Net Cash from Tariffs Jumps to Record $32 Billion in October
29. 3 NovWho Takes the Losses on Office CRE? Here’s an Example: the Bankruptcy of Office Properties Income Trust
30. 2 NovDear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Fall 2025 Reminder
31. 2 NovOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis. Multifamily Delinquencies Soar to 7.1%
32. 1 NovWhat Does the “Federal Funds Rate,” which the Fed Targets, still Measure? Not Much, Mostly a Bizarre Arbitrage Trade

October 2025

1. 31 OctBanks Borrow Record $50 Billion at Fed’s New SRF amid Hot Repo Rates, ON RRPs Spike to $52 Billion in Opposite Direction
2. 31 OctFed Balance Sheet QT: Reserve Balances & ON RRPs -$109 Billion in October, -$3.0 Trillion from Peak. What’s Next, According to Powell
3. 30 OctThe US Dollar Gets More Fuel from Powell’s Doubts about December Rate Cut
4. 29 OctFed Cuts by 25 Basis Points with 2 Dissents in Opposite Directions, QT to End, but MBS to Continue Rolling Off to Be Replaced by T-bills
5. 29 OctHome Sales Have Not Improved at All Despite the Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Year
6. 28 OctEven as Revenues Grow, Amazon to Lay off 14,000. Why? AI & Corporate Efficiency. Walmart and Others Toot Similar Horn
7. 27 OctThe Cities Where Condo Prices Are Now Below their Housing Bubble Peaks 20 Years Ago
8. 25 OctFood Inflation: The Price Spikes of Beef, Coffee, Eggs, and Dairy
9. 24 OctMassive Outlier in Owner’s Equivalent of Rent Pushed Down CPI, Core CPI, Core Services CPI: Something Went Awry at the BLS
10. 24 OctOh Elon, Californians Already Forgot? EV Sales, even Teslas, Spike in Q3 before End of Federal EV Incentives. ICE Vehicle Sales Plunge
11. 23 OctSales of Existing Single-Family Homes Rise but still 23% below 2019, Supply at 2016 Levels. Condo Sales Near Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Levels, Prices Down YoY
12. 23 OctUS Treasury Debt Hits $38 Trillion after Spiking by $1 Trillion in 2.5 Months and by $1.8 Trillion since the Debt Ceiling
13. 22 OctFalling Mortgage Rates further Reduce Demand in the Housing Market (Not so Paradoxically)
14. 21 OctThe 23 Bigger Cities where Condo Prices Dropped by 12% to 28% through September
15. 20 OctRepo Market Brushfires Doused by Banks’ Use of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF)
16. 19 OctThe 15 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -24%) through September
17. 17 OctAI-Powered Tricolor and its Mushroom Cloud of Fraud Allegations Are a Sign Greedy Lenders Closed their Eyes for Years, Not a Sign Consumers Are “Cracking” or Whatever
18. 17 OctThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in September 2025
19. 16 OctStock Market Leverage Blows Out
20. 15 OctHome Buyers’ Strike Drags on Relentlessly, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates
21. 14 OctPowell on the End of QT (“We’re Not so Far Away but There’s a Ways to Go”), Shifting Assets to T-Bills, and Selling MBS
22. 13 OctThe Huge US Bond Market and the US Dollar Blow Off the “Debasement Trade”
23. 12 Oct10-Year Treasury Yield Drops to One-Month Low on Trump’s China Threat, Bond Market Sees One Rate Cut this Year, Deficit-Funding Shifts to T-Bills
24. 10 OctIs it Really Different this Time?
25. 9 OctAmazing How the Money-Printing World Has Reversed
26. 8 OctECB’s QT Has Knocked €3.28 trillion off its Balance Sheet (far More than the Fed’s QT) and Accelerated QT Further this Year
27. 8 OctSpike in Refis, Triggered by Small Dip in Mortgage Rates, Fizzled. Demand for Mortgages to Purchase Homes Still in Deepfreeze
28. 7 OctBank of Japan Balance Sheet QT Accelerates: -$148 Billion in Q3, -$407 Billion fr. Peak. Will Sell ETFs, REITs. Sold all Bank Stocks
29. 6 OctHome Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe Range from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that Dropped back to 2010
30. 5 OctJobs Report to Get Hit by 100,000 Federal Government “Deferred Resignations” on top of the Jobs Already Shed. But ICE Is Hiring
31. 4 OctIt Took the Longest Time to Sell a Home since at Least 2016, if it Sold at all, in Many Markets
32. 3 OctFed Balance Sheet QT: -$15 Billion in September, -$2.38 Trillion from Peak, to $6.59 Trillion
33. 2 OctStatus of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Plunges to Lowest since 1994, as USD Exchange Rates Tank, Central Banks Diversify
34. 2 OctTariff Cash Keeps Rolling In: Record $30 Billion in September
35. 1 OctADP Employment Report: -32,000 Jobs in September after -43,000 Annual Adjustment to Benchmark ADP data to BLS Data
36. 1 Oct“AI Makes Past Hype Cycles Look Tame”: PitchBook on the Stunning Venture Capital Mania for AI

September 2025

1. 30 SepThe Labor Market in New Era of Low Churn, Uneasy Calm, Government Job Losses, and Crackdown on Illegal Immigration
2. 29 SepThe “Lock-in Effect” and Mortgage Rates: Update on Unwinding a Phenomenon that Wrecked the Housing Market
3. 29 SepPending Home Sales Rise from Near-Record Lows, Zigzag along those Lows, -43% from 2020, -30% from 2019: Charts Speak
4. 28 SepCorporate Profits in Nonfinancial Industries Plunge by Most Ever in $, amid Massive Downward Revisions
5. 26 SepInflation Is in Services despite Powell’s Denials: PCE Price Index for Core Services Accelerated Further. Durable Goods Prices Fell for 2nd Month
6. 25 SepSales of Existing Single-Family Homes Crushed Further, Supply at 2016 Levels. Condo Sales Near Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Levels
7. 25 SepWhat Slowdown? Q2 GDP Growth Revised Up to Hot Zone of 3.8%, Stronger Consumer Spending & Private Fixed Investment
8. 24 SepInventory of New Completed Single-Family Homes Jumps to Highest since 2009, but Sales of New Homes See Outlier Spike in the South, Prices Skid: Some Thoughts
9. 23 SepThe 14 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -24%) through August
10. 23 SepPrice Arbitrage (Buy Low, Sell High) Dominates the Use of Utility-Scale Battery Systems
11. 22 SepLonger-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Jump after Rate Cut, Yield Curve Steepens, Bond Market Gets Edgy
12. 19 SepWhat It Takes to Sell Homes: Lennar Cuts Average Selling Price Below its 2019 Level, and its Home Sales Held Up
13. 19 SepCondo Prices Dropped by 12%-27% in these 25 Bigger Cities through August: Condo Bust Update
14. 19 SepThe Foreign Investors Who Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Treasury Debt and Why They’re so Important
15. 17 SepThis Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Circus
16. 17 SepThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Aug 2025: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros. Overall US Home Prices Fell YoY
17. 16 SepMy Thoughts about those August Retail Sales
18. 15 SepThe Biggest Single-Family Rental Landlords and Multifamily Landlords in the US: Big Shifts Underway
19. 13 SepMoney-Market Funds & CDs: Americans Grow their Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash Further despite Lower Yields
20. 12 Sep“Canada: The Industrial Implosion” v. the United States
21. 11 SepCPI Inflation Dishes Up another Nasty Surprise, as it Tends to Do
22. 11 SepRTO Has Stalled, There’s Been Hardly any Reduction in WFH since Early 2023
23. 10 SepMy Thoughts about that August Producer Price Index
24. 10 SepIn California, the Time a Home Sat on the Market in August before it Was Sold or Delisted Soars to Highest in at least a Decade
25. 9 SepAnnual Benchmark Payroll Revisions: Nonfarm Job Creation for 12 Months to March Chopped by 911,000, to 1.44 Million Jobs Created
26. 9 SepStories of Homeowners Hit by Fallout from the Housing Bubble & 3% Mortgages Replace Breathless Media Hype of Bidding Wars
27. 8 SepScenario of a Triple Whammy for Long-Term Treasury Yields
28. 6 SepBessent Blasts the Fed for QE, its “Perverse Incentives” for Fiscal “Irresponsibility,” “Wealth Effect” Policies, “Class and Generational Disparities,” Failure on Inflation… Oh I So Agree
29. 5 SepMy Thoughts about that August Jobs Report
30. 5 SepFed Balance Sheet QT: -$39 Billion in August, -$2.36 Trillion from Peak, to $6.60 Trillion
31. 4 SepDespite all the Shouting by the Cut-Rates-Now Crowd, Unemployment Claims Do Not Depict a “Cracking” Labor Market
32. 3 SepON RRPs Drop to Near-Zero $17.9 Billion, Liquidity Flow into Markets Over, while TGA Refilling Drains Liquidity from Markets
33. 1 SepOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. Multifamily Delinquencies also Spike

August 2025

1. 30 Aug30-Year Treasury Yield Stuck Near 5% on Inflation Fears, but 6-Month Yield Drops, Sees Rate Cuts, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens a Lot, Mortgage Rates still over 6.5%
2. 29 AugCore Services PCE Inflation Spikes (Not Tariffed), Durable Goods Inflation (where Tariffs Hit) Turns Negative Month to Month
3. 29 AugUS Government’s Fiscal Mess: Interest Payments on the Treasury Debt, Interest Rates, Tax Receipts, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q2 2025
4. 28 AugBuyers Strike: Pending Home Sales Drop Further, Plunge in Midwest, Near Record Lows in All Regions, as Supply Balloons
5. 27 AugStill Waiting for Lower Prices, Higher Incomes, Lower Rates: Mortgage Rates Tick Up, Demand in Deep Freeze, Supply Surges
6. 26 AugManufacturing of Durable Goods on Rebound in the US
7. 25 AugNew Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further as Inventory Glut Grows. In the South, Inventory for Sale Hits New Record
8. 25 AugBig Fuss in the Media about the Government’s 10% Stake in Intel, but just Giving this Cash to Intel under the CHIPS Act Was Fine?
9. 24 AugThe 12 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -23%) through July
10. 22 AugPowell Makes Room for Rate Cut. Fed Kills “Average Inflation” Targeting that Caused so Much Damage when Inflation Raged
11. 21 AugSales of Existing Single-Family Homes Crushed, Supply Highest since 2016. Condo Sales Near Low in the Data, Supply Highest since Housing Bust. Prices Begin to Bend
12. 20 AugCondo Prices Already Dropped by 12%-26% in 21 Bigger Cities through July. Condo Bust Takes Shape
13. 20 AugWhere Americans Spend $1.2 Trillion a Year at Ecommerce Retailers and How that Changed Over Time
14. 19 AugCredit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q2 2025
15. 18 AugThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros
16. 15 AugMy Thoughts about those July Retail Sales
17. 14 AugCore Services PPI Explodes, Worst since March 2020, Causes Overall PPI and Core PPI to Explode
18. 13 AugInventory of Homes for Sale in New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, Nashville, Atlanta, Washington DC, Columbus, Detroit, Minneapolis
19. 12 AugFed’s Nightmare: CPI Inflation in Core Services Worst in 6 Months, Pushing Core CPI to Worst in 6 Months. Some Goods Prices Fell, Others Rose
20. 12 AugSerious Delinquency Rates for Subprime & Prime Auto Loans, their Balances, and their Burden: Our Drunken Sailors in Q2
21. 11 AugAverage Age of First-Time Home Buyers and How it Changed over the Past 25 Years
22. 9 AugGovernment Sold $724 Billion of Treasuries this Week, Debt Hits $37.0 Trillion. Getting Ready for the Fed’s Shift to T-Bills
23. 8 AugInventory of Homes for Sale Balloons in Texas and its Big Metros: Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio
24. 8 AugFed Balance Sheet QT: -$19 Billion in July, -$2.32 Trillion from Peak, to $6.64 Trillion
25. 7 AugUsed Car & Truck Wholesale Prices amid Solid Retail Demand and Tight Supply
26. 7 AugDays on the Market Blow Out in Florida’s Big Metros as Homes for Sale Don’t Sell and Pile Up
27. 6 AugHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q2 2025
28. 5 AugHousehold Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q2 2025
29. 5 AugConstruction Spending on Data Centers, Office Buildings, and Electric Power Installations
30. 4 AugInventories of Homes for Sale Surge in Denver, Seattle, Phoenix, Tucson, Portland, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, Boise
31. 2 AugTariff Cash Is Rolling In, Hits $28 Billion in July
32. 1 AugSlowing Supply of Immigrant Labor & Slowing Job Growth Keep the Job Market “in Balance” and the Unemployment Rate Low, Push Up Wages. Powell Talked about It
33. 1 AugHomes for Sale in Big California Markets Pile Up, Days on the Market Spike to Highest in Years, despite Surge of Delistings, as Buyers Vanished

July 2025

1. 31 JulPCE Inflation Accelerates in Services and Goods. What Powell Is Waiting For
2. 30 JulThe Fed, Torn by Two Governor Dissents, Sticks to Wait-and-See, Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Uncertainty
3. 30 JulWhacked Down by Plunging Inventories and Whacked Up by Plunging Imports, GDP Grows by 3.0%
4. 30 JulRecklessly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $519 Billion since Debt Ceiling, Expected to Hit $37.8 Trillion by Yearend. $722 Billion in Treasury Auctions this Week Alone
5. 29 JulAbout this Churn in the Job Market
6. 28 JulFed’s Rates Not Restrictive for Markets. Financial Conditions Ultra-Loose. Manias Form, Margin Debt Blows Out, Junk Bonds Party in La-La-Land
7. 26 JulTreasury Market Sees No Rate Cut by Sept., 30-Year Treasury Yield Near 5%: The Yield Curve and “Real” Mortgage Rates
8. 24 JulInventory of New Single-Family Homes Spikes to Highest since 2007; in the South, Shoots Past Housing Bust High. Sales and Prices Drop
9. 23 JulSingle-Family Home Sales Drop Below 1995, Supply Highest since 2016. Condo Sales at Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Level
10. 23 JulThe 10 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-9% to -23%) from Peak through June
11. 22 JulGM Ate $1.1 Billion in Tariffs in Q2, Will “Likely” Eat More in Q3, Shifts Production to the US to Cut Costs, and Has Cash Left Over to Waste on Share Buybacks
12. 21 JulWhere Americans Spend their Trillions a Year on Goods and How that Changed Over Time
13. 20 JulThe 19 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Condos (-12% to -24% from Peak through June)
14. 18 JulThe Foreign Investors Who Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: July 2025 Update
15. 17 JulMy Thoughts about those June Retail Sales
16. 17 JulThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros
17. 16 JulThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, June 2025: Single-Family & Condo Prices Plunge to Multi-Year Lows in Toronto, Hit Record High in Montreal
18. 15 JulFed’s Nightmare: CPI Inflation in Services Reheats (not tariffed), while Inflation in Durable Goods, Apparel & Footwear (tariffed) Remains Cool
19. 15 JulHomes for Sale Also Surge in Washington D.C., Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Detroit, but Are Still Very Low
20. 13 Jul30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.96% despite “Solid” Auction, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage-Rate Spread Historically Wide
21. 12 JulInventory of Homes for Sale Blows Out in Texas, Price Cuts Spike
22. 11 JulHomes for Sale in Florida’s Biggest Markets Rise to Highest in Many Years and Languish as Demand Fizzled
23. 10 JulECB Balance Sheet: QT Assets Drop by €64 Billion in June, by €3.18 Trillion from Peak, to €3.98 Trillion, Lowest since June 2020
24. 9 JulThe (Declining) Status of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify into other Currencies & Gold
25. 9 JulInventories of Homes for Sale in Big California Markets Jump to Highest in Years, Days on the Market Soar, Demand Withered
26. 8 JulUsed Car & Truck Wholesale Prices Been Rising for a Year, in Part Driven by Surging Prices of Used EVs
27. 7 JulBank of Japan Balance Sheet QT: -¥12 Trillion in Q2, -¥39 Trillion from Peak, to ¥717 Trillion. Sold Nearly All its Bank Stocks
28. 7 JulThe Housing Markets of Europe: From Most Splendid Housing Bubbles to Go-Nowhere Markets
29. 4 JulFed Balance Sheet QT: -$13 Billion in June, -$2.31 Trillion from Peak, to $6.66 Trillion. New Milestone: 3 Years of QT
30. 3 JulBeneath the Surface of the Employment Report: How Jobs Evolved by Industry over Time, Winners & Losers
31. 3 JulDespite Ugliness at Stellantis, Nissan & Tesla, New Vehicle Sales in Q2 Rose to the Best Q2 since 2021. But June Stalled
32. 2 JulOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.1% in June, Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown Peak, after 3-Month Relapse
33. 1 JulTariff Cash Is Rolling In: June’s Record Take Spikes by $20.5 Billion Year-over-Year
34. 1 JulUnderlying Labor Market Dynamics Are Solid, Recession Stays on the Back Burner
35. 1 JulExit from the “Lock-in” Effect Slowed in Q1 as Home Sales Deteriorated Further and Supply Spiked

June 2025

1. 29 JunThe Historically Wide Spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates Widened Again: Some Thoughts
2. 28 JunThat Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm
3. 27 JunPCE Inflation Accelerates. But Tariffs Haven’t Shown Up Yet: Why the Fed Is in Wait-and-See Mode
4. 26 JunThe Corporate-Profit Explosion Stalls in Q1, on the Eve of the New Tariffs
5. 25 JunInventory of New Single-Family Homes for Sale Highest since 2007, amid Record Pile-up in the South, as Sales Drop: Homebuilders Face a Tough Market
6. 25 JunThe Somewhat Bedraggled US Dollar against the Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Dollar Indices, and Soft Currencies like the Indian Rupee
7. 23 JunCondo Sales Drop to Lowest in the Data, Supply Highest since Housing Bust. Single-Family Home Sales Below 1995, Supply Highest since 2016
8. 23 JunThe 10 Big Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-8% to -22%) from Peak through May
9. 21 JunWho Held or Bought the Huge US Government Debt even as the Fed Shed Treasury Securities in Q1? An Iffy Situation
10. 20 JunThe Condo Bust Is Here: Prices Dropped Already 10% to 23% in 20 Bigger Cities, Unravel the Most Splendid Condo Bubble Ever
11. 18 JunFed Sees Hotter Inflation for Longer, Higher Unemployment, Slower Growth, “Dot Plot” Shifts More Hawkish but still Sees 2 Cuts in 2025. QT Continues
12. 17 JunMy Thoughts about those Retail Sales
13. 17 JunThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, May 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros
14. 13 JunMoney-Market Funds & CDs: Americans and their Piles of Interest-Earning Cash
15. 12 JunRecession Watch: My Favorite Recession Indicator, Mid-June Update
16. 11 JunTariff-Inflation Watch: CPI Inflation in Light of the Tariffs
17. 11 JunInventory of Homes for Sale in the Biggest Florida Metros Piles Up to Highest in Years as Demand Has Withered
18. 10 JunDespite Tesla’s Sales Drop, Total EV Penetration in the US Rises to Record 9.8%: BY Model & USA-Made Content
19. 9 JunCollapse of the Once High-Flying Solar Stocks: Another Bankruptcy among our 8 Imploded Solar Stocks
20. 7 JunInventory of Homes for Sale in Biggest California Markets Suddenly Piles Up to Highest in Years: Demand Has Collapsed
21. 6 JunExcluding Federal Government Jobs, Payrolls Grow by 161,000 in May, Wages Jump, Despite All Moaning and Groaning
22. 6 JunFed Balance Sheet QT: -$36 Billion in May, -$2.29 Trillion from Peak, to $6.67 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020.
23. 5 JunBanks Getting Rid of Bad CRE Loans: Dutch Megabank ING Dumps One of the Largest Office Properties in San Francisco
24. 4 JunDemand in the Housing Market Just Got Even Worse, as Supply Piles Up
25. 3 JunHiring in the Private Sector Surges, Despite All Moaning & Groaning about the Economy or Whatever
26. 3 JunRevenues from Tariffs Spiked to $23 Billion in May, up by 168% in 3 Months
27. 2 JunS&P’s US Manufacturing PMI Shows “Solid” Growth Powered by Jump in Domestic New Orders. Canada & Mexico PMIs Tank

May 2025

1. 31 MayOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Re-Spikes to 10.6%, to Worst Levels of the Financial Crisis Meltdown
2. 30 MayHow Financial Services, a Market Plunge in April, and a Historic Cliff-Dive by Recreation Services Messed with PCE Inflation Today. But a Snap-Back Cometh
3. 30 MayUS Government Interest Payments to Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q1 2025
4. 29 MayPending Home Sales Plunge in All Regions, Inventories Surge. In the West & South, Collapsed Sales Meet Spiking Inventories
5. 28 MayHow the ECB’s Mark-to-Market of its Gold Holdings to €1 Trillion and €3.1 Trillion in QT Affect its Balance Sheet
6. 28 MayDurable Goods Orders Made Ugly Headlines, but the 3-Month Average, which Irons Out Aircraft Orders, Rose to a Record
7. 27 MayThe 10 Big Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes from their Peaks through April: -7% to -21%
8. 24 May30-Year & 20-Year Treasury Yields Back over 5%, 10-Year over 4.5%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage Rates Back over 7%
9. 23 MayInventory of New Houses for Sale at 500,000, Most since 2007, Driven by the South & West. Prices Zigzag Lower, Sales Rise
10. 22 MaySpring Selling Season Fizzles, Worst April for Home Sales since 2009, Supply Surges to Highest since 2016, YoY Price Gains Fade
11. 21 MayAs Tech Jobs Plunge in San Francisco & Silicon Valley, Housing Reacts: Condo Prices Drop Back to 2015, Single-Family Home Prices Back to 2018
12. 21 MayCredit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Debt-to-Income, and Credit Limits in Q1 2025: Our Drunken Sailors & their Credit Cards
13. 20 MayJapan’s 30-Year and 40-Year Bonds Crater, Yields Spike, Huge Mess Coming Home to Roost. Yen Carry Trade at Risk
14. 19 MayTHANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! And if You Missed it, a Reminder: Please Donate
15. 19 MayThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, April 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 of the Largest Housing Markets
16. 17 MayForeign Investors Loaded Up on Treasury Securities in March Despite all the Turmoil in the Media
17. 16 MayMoody’s Cuts US Government Credit Rating due to Deficits & Debt, Blames “Successive US Administrations and Congress”
18. 16 MayAuto-Loan Balances, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies for Subprime & Prime in Q1 2025: Our Drunken Sailors and their Auto Loans
19. 16 MayThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, April 2025: Single-Family & Condo Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto
20. 15 MayBeyond the Squiggles in Retail Sales
21. 15 MayHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q1 2025
22. 14 MayHousehold Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q1 2025
23. 13 MayBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Services Inflation Bounces Back, No Signs yet of Tariffs Getting Passed to Consumers
24. 13 MayHousing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment at Mortgage Lenders: They Shed Jobs Again, 38% Gone
25. 12 MayHow the Debt Ceiling Is Now Pouring Liquidity into Financial Markets, only to Suck it Back Out Very Fast Later this Year
26. 10 May10-year Treasury Yield Back at 4.39%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage-Rate Spread Remains Historically Wide
27. 9 MayDear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2025 Reminder
28. 8 MayRecession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again
29. 8 MayI’ve Been Screaming about Rising Used-Vehicle Prices since Aug 2024 (and No One Paid Attention) but Suddenly It’s the Tariffs?
30. 7 MayFully in Wait-and-See Mode, Fed Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Higher Uncertainty, Higher Inflation, and Higher Unemployment
31. 6 MayAfter CRE Office Market Repriced at 70% Off in San Francisco, Sales Revive. Leasing Jumps amid 35% Vacancy Rates and 21% Drop in Asking Rents
32. 6 MayNY Fed’s “Multivariate Core Trend” Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Worst in Over a Year, Predicts Acceleration of PCE Price Index
33. 5 MayCalifornia Inventory of Homes for Sale Suddenly Piles Up: +51% Year-over-Year, to Highest April in Years
34. 4 MayUnsold Inventory of Homes for Sale in Florida Pile up Further in April. Some Metros Start Seeing Gluts, Miami Still Lags a Little
35. 3 MayTariffs Start Washing into the Government Checking Account
36. 2 MayLabor Market Is Just Fine Despite Dropping Federal Government Jobs, Media-Driven Moaning and Groaning, and Tariff Chaos
37. 2 MayFed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in April, -$2.26 Trillion from Peak, to $6.71 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020
38. 1 MayNow the Multifamily CMBS Delinquency Rate Begins to Spike, while Office Delinquencies Re-Spike to Financial Crisis Peak
39. 1 MayInflation Is in the Revisions? What Stands Out Once Again in the PCE Price Index? Sharp Up-Revisions of Prior Month’s Inflation

April 2025

1. 30 AprGDP Whacked by Massive Spike in Imports on Frontrunning of Tariffs. Consumer Spending Grew, Business Investment Soared
2. 29 AprDespite All Moaning and Groaning: Layoffs & Discharges Plunge, Hires and Voluntary Quits Rise, Driven by Private Sector Strength
3. 28 AprHow Gold Imports Blew up Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The Old Model is Dead, Long Live the “New GDPNow Model” Starting Apr 30
4. 26 Apr10-Year Treasury Yield Re-Dips Below EFFR, Yield Curve Sags Deeply in the Middle, Dollar Bounces Back into 3-Year Range
5. 25 AprOffice Vacancy Rate in the US Worsens to Record 22.6% in Q1 amid Federal Government Lease Terminations
6. 24 AprSales of Existing Homes Drop to Worst March since 2009. West, South, Midwest, Northeast All Get Crushed. Supply Surges to Highest since 2016
7. 23 AprInventory of New Houses for Sale Stuck at Highest Level since 2007, Driven by Gluts in the South & West. Prices Fall, Incentives Soar, Sales Rise
8. 23 AprIn 15 Bigger Cities, Condo Prices Already -10% to -22%, 5 Are in Florida with Accelerating Drops. Absurdity Comes Unglued
9. 21 AprDespite Turmoil in Stocks: Financial Conditions, Financial Stress, Junk-Bond Spreads Still in La-La Land or Barely Exiting
10. 19 AprThe Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & Mortgage Rates Is Historically Wide and Widened Further: Some Thoughts
11. 18 AprThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 of the Largest Housing Markets
12. 17 AprOh Elon! Tesla Crushed Further in California in Q1, Non-Tesla EV Sales Soar. Cybertruck Joining Failed Models of Automotive History?
13. 16 AprForeign Investors Massively Bought US Treasury Securities in February: China, Japan, Canada, Euro Area, UK, Financial Centers, Taiwan, India, even Brazil
14. 16 AprDrunken Sailors Back in Splurge Mode, Retail Sales Surge. Even at Restaurants & Bars not Part of Frontrunning Tariffs
15. 16 AprNvidia Makes Mess Afterhours, Discloses $5.5 Billion in Charges due to US Export Restrictions on its H20 Chip for China
16. 15 AprThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March 2025: Sales Plunge, Supply Surges, Overall Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto
17. 14 AprOur Drunken Sailors Are Back: Sales of Used Vehicles Surge in March, same as New Vehicles. Retail Sales Might Look Good
18. 13 Apr10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back to February’s 4.5%, Yield Curve Re-Un-Inverts, Mortgage Rates Back at 7%
19. 12 AprOMG the Dollar Is Collapsing, or Whatever
20. 11 AprPPI Pushed into Negative by Dropping Prices of Many Goods and Services
21. 10 AprBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Surging Prices of Food, Housing, Medical Care Meet Plunging Prices of Gasoline & Travel Services
22. 9 AprTrump Speaks and Stocks Spike, after Trump Spoke and Stocks Plunged (Makes You Wonder, Why even Own Stocks?)
23. 9 AprShadow Inventory of Vacant Homes Suddenly Piles on the Market in Texas. New Listings, Active Listings Spike to Highest for March in Many Years
24. 8 AprBut this Kind of Dynamic Sprinkles Additional Cold Water on the Idea of a Looming Recession
25. 8 Apr10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back Brutally, Stocks Go Crazy, S&P 500 Spikes 8.5% then Plunges Back in 1 Hour on Fake News
26. 7 AprBank of Japan’s QT Accelerates, 2 Years Behind the Fed & ECB, but Now Visibly Part of the QT Party
27. 6 AprInventories of Existing Homes in Florida Spike in March to Highest since at Least 2016, Massive Jumps in Tampa, Miami, Orlando, as Buyers Are on Strike
28. 4 AprThe Stock Market May Be in Trouble and Consumers May Be in a Sour Mood, But the Labor Market Is Just Fine
29. 4 AprFed Balance Sheet QT: -$33 Billion in March, -$2.24 Trillion from Peak, to $6.72 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020
30. 3 AprStocks Plunge as the Market Understood What Tariffs Are: A Tax on Corporate Profit Margins
31. 3 AprOur Drunken Sailors Are Back: New Vehicle Sales Surge in March, after Rising in January & February, Best Q1 since 2019
32. 2 AprAfter Spiking by 2,600% or Whatever, Newsmax Stock Plunges 80%, Straight into our Imploded Stocks, All in 3 Days
33. 2 AprOh Elon! Tesla Deliveries Plunge as Musk Crushes One of the Most Successful Consumer Brands
34. 2 AprAs Life Happens, “Locked-in” Homeowners Pay Off Below-4% Mortgages: Share Drops to 54%, Lowest since Q4 2020
35. 2 AprNot Another Free Lunch: Don’t Let Fannie and Freddie Turn Back into GSEs
36. 1 AprUnderlying Labor Market Dynamics Still Tight Despite Highest Gov Layoffs & Discharges since Census Wind-Down of 2020

March 2025

1. 31 MarStatus of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies and Gold
2. 29 MarCould a Market Meltdown Trigger the Next Recession?
3. 29 MarBad Settlements Beat Good Lawsuits: A CRE Landlord, a Restaurant, and Commercial Rents that Plunged
4. 28 MarInflation Galore Now: Fed Started Rate Cuts at the Low Point 6 Months Ago, just as Inflation Began to Resurge
5. 28 MarUS Government Fiscal Mess: Debt, Deficit, Interest Payments, and Tax Receipts: Q4 2024 Update on an Ugly Situation
6. 27 MarIn the South & West, Pending Sales of Existing Homes Mark Worst February in the Data, as Inventories in Florida, Texas, California Surge
7. 26 MarHome Buyers Still on Strike, Waiting for Lower Prices, Lower Rates, and Higher Incomes
8. 25 MarIn the West, Inventory of New Houses for Sale Jumps to Highest since 2007. In the South, it’s Bigger than During Housing Bust
9. 25 MarSPAC Implosion Keeps on Giving: Genetic Data of 15 Million Customers up for Grabs at 23andMe Bankruptcy Auction
10. 24 MarServices Activity Jumps in March, Cost Pressures from Tariffs & Staffing Well Up
11. 23 MarTreasury Yield Curve Re-Inverts with Sag in the Middle, as Government Swats Down 10-Year Yield. But Mortgage Rates Don’t Follow all the Way, Spread Widens
12. 21 MarFed’s Operating Losses Declined to $78 Billion in 2024, “Unrealized Losses” Rose to $1.06 Trillion
13. 21 MarWhere Condos Already Came Unglued: 10 Big Cities with Price Drops from 10% to 22% from Peak
14. 20 MarBuyers Strike Not Letting Up: Sales of Existing Homes Have Worst February since 2009, as Inventory Surges
15. 19 MarFed Sticks to Wait-and-See, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, “Dot Plot” Shifts Hawkish amid Rising Inflation & “Uncertainties.” Slows Treasury QT, Maintains MBS QT
16. 19 MarWho Holds the Ballooning US Government Debt, even as the Fed and Foreign Holders Unloaded Treasury Securities in Q4?
17. 18 MarNot Just in the US: Inflation Dishes Up Another Nasty Surprise in Canada, Throwing Further Rate Cuts into Doubt
18. 17 MarRetail Sales in February Were Confusing
19. 17 MarThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Feb 2025: The Price Drops & Gains of 33 Largest Costliest Housing Markets
20. 14 MarWill Economic Detox Lead to a Recession? Maybe Not. But a Long Deep Stock Market Rout Will (See Dotcom Bust)
21. 14 MarMoney Market Funds & CDs: Americans’ $11-Trillion in Cash, Not Trash, Much of it Still Earning 4%+
22. 13 MarIt’s Again the Hefty Up-Revisions that Heat PPI Inflation: Been Happening Month after Month
23. 12 MarBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Pace Slows from Spike Last Month, but 6-Month CPI Accelerates Further, Worst Increase since September 2023
24. 12 MarKohl’s Spirals into Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown, Blames “Constrained” Consumers, but it’s Just Losing them to Ecommerce, which is Booming
25. 11 MarLabor Market Dynamics Tighten Further. Job Openings, Quits, Hires Rise, Layoffs & Discharges Drop, Back Fed’s Wait-and-See
26. 10 MarPrice of Natural Gas Futures Up 140% Year-over-Year: One More Reason for Inflation to Not Back off Easily
27. 9 MarWhy the Fed Considers “Pausing or Slowing” QT “Until the Resolution of the Debt Ceiling Situation”
28. 7 MarFederal Government Layoffs & Quits Begin to Show up in the Jobs Data, Barely Dent Solid Labor Market
29. 7 MarFed Balance Sheet QT: -$54 Billion in February, -$2.21 Trillion from Peak, to $6.76 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020
30. 6 MarExplosion of Imports Causes Trade Deficit to Spike by 96% in January YoY on Tariff Front-Running
31. 5 MarIs This the Beginning of the Second Wave of Inflation?
32. 4 MarU.S. Demand for Gasoline Faces Long-Term Structural Problem: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption
33. 4 MarU.S. Production & Exports of Crude Oil & Petroleum Products Hit New Record in 2024, Imports Dipped Further, SPR Refilling Halted in February
34. 3 MarNew York Fed’s Measure of “Inflation Persistence” Nixes Friday’s Idea that YoY PCE Inflation Cooled, Using Same Data
35. 3 MarDrill-Baby-Drill for 20 Years: US Natural Gas Production and Exports via LNG & Pipeline Rose to New Records in 2024
36. 1 MarNo, Consumer Spending Didn’t Plunge in January and Auto Sales Didn’t Collapse, or Whatever, But the Huge Seasonal Adjustments Might Have Gone Awry

February 2025

1. 28 FebPCE Inflation Hits 4.0% Month-to-Month Annualized, Worst since March. 3-Month PCE Hits 2.9%, Worst since April. But Massive “Base Effect” in Services Cools YoY Increases
2. 27 FebIn the South, Pending Home Sales Plunge to Record Low, just as Inventories in Florida & Texas Balloon. Push US Pending Sales to Record Low
3. 27 FebDemand for Electricity Takes Off. US Power Generation by Source in 2024: Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Hydro, Solar, Geothermal, Biomass, Petroleum
4. 26 FebInventory of New Houses for Sale Highest since 2007. Builders Push Mortgage-Rate Buydowns, Price Cuts, and Incentives
5. 26 FebFDIC Ends Disclosing Total Assets of Banks on “Problem Bank List,” as Disclosure Might Suddenly Trigger a “Disorderly Run”
6. 25 FebFuture of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Fed’s Logan on How Assets Might Shift from Longer-Term Securities to Short-Term T-Bills, Repos, and Loans after QT Ends. MBS Entirely Off the List
7. 24 FebApple Announces Server Manufacturing Plant in Houston, Adding Weight to Eyepopping US Factory Construction Boom
8. 24 FebDear WOLF STREET Readers: Are You Using a VPN? Here’s Why You Might Get Blocked and What You Can Do if You Get Blocked
9. 22 FebTreasury Yield Curve Flattens as 10-Year Yield Falls, Short-Term Yields Stay Put: Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See in Inflationary Times. But Mortgage Rates Stay Near 7%
10. 21 FebBuyers Strike Crushes Green Shoots of Demand for Existing Homes, amid Surging Supply, Active Listings & Days on Market
11. 21 FebInflation Spikes to 4.0% in Japan, Much Worse than in the US. BOJ Babied its Rate to Just 0.5%, with More Baby Hikes in View
12. 20 FebDear WOLF STREET Email Subscribers: I Changed the Email Service Provider, and Some Readers Have Run into Some Kinks
13. 20 FebOur Drunken Sailors and their Credit Cards: Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, and Available Credit in Q4 2024
14. 19 FebThe Collapse of the EV SPACs: Nikola Joins EV SPAC Bankruptcy Lineup. Here Are Those Already Bankrupt, and Those Not Yet
15. 18 FebAuto Debts, Auto-Loan-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies for Prime & Subprime: Our Drunken Sailors and their Auto Loans
16. 17 FebThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Jan 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 of the Largest Housing Markets
17. 15 FebHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies & Foreclosures in Q4 2024
18. 14 FebAbout that Retail Sales Plunge in the Headlines: A Romp through the Massive Seasonal Adjustments this Time of the Year
19. 14 FebHousehold Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q4 2024
20. 13 FebPPI Inflation Accelerates to +3.5% yoy, Worst in 2 Years, Driven by Services amid Massive Up-Revision of Services Inflation
21. 12 FebBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Worst Month-to-Month Acceleration of CPI since Aug 2023, on Spikes in Used Vehicles, Non-Housing Services, Food, Energy
22. 12 FebTreasury Market’s Inflation Expectations Become “Unanchored”
23. 10 FebThere Hasn’t Been Much if Any Reduction in WFH in over Two Years, Despite the Hype about RTO
24. 8 FebUsed Car & Truck Prices Heading Higher on Tight Supply, Strong Demand, after U-Turn in mid-2024 from Historic Plunge. Used EV Prices Jump
25. 7 FebHuge Upward Adjustment to Employment & Labor Force as Wave of Immigrants is Finally Included, Unemployment Drops, Wage Growth Accelerates: The Annual Revisions Are Here
26. 7 FebFed Balance Sheet QT: -$42 Billion in January, -$2.15 Trillion from Peak, to $6.81 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020. Bye-Bye BTFP
27. 6 FebThe Fed’s QT Could Go on for a Lot Longer: The Tools Are in Place, incl. the Revived Standing Repo Facility
28. 5 FebTrade Deficit in Goods Worsens to All-Time Worst in 2024, Small Surplus in Services Rises, Overall Trade Deficit Worsens by 17%
29. 4 FebUnderlying Job Market Dynamics Retighten as Fed Moves any Rate Cuts into Distance amid Accelerating Inflation
30. 4 FebTrump Agrees with Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See after the Fed Bows to Trump on Everything Else to Keep Monetary Policy Independent
31. 4 FebTesla Sales Got Crushed in Q4 in California, its Largest US Market. Non-Tesla EV Sales Jumped to a Record. ICE Vehicle Sales Dipped
32. 3 FebWhat Trump’s Tariffs Did Last Time (2018-2019): No Impact on Inflation, Doubled Receipts from Customs Duties, and Hit Stocks

January 2025

1. 31 JanInflation Festers in Core Services, No Progress in 12 Months. PCE Price Index Accelerates for 3rd Month: Justifies Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See
2. 31 JanBuyers’ Strike Continues: Pending Home Sales Drop Again while Inventories of New & Existing Homes Balloon, Especially in the South & West
3. 30 JanOur Drunken Sailors Partied Massively in Q4, Propped Up GDP Growth. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsened to 121.8%
4. 30 JanPowell: In “No Hurry” to Cut, Need to See “Further Progress” on Inflation, No Timeline to End QT (Not Even Close)
5. 29 JanFed Pivots to Wait-and-See, Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Restarts Inflation Worries. QT Continues.
6. 28 JanGlut of New Houses for Sale in the South Is Bigger Even than during the Housing Bust. The Glut in the West Gets Close
7. 27 JanInventory of New Completed Single-Family Houses for Sale Spikes to Highest since 2007. Builders Prop Up Sales with Lower Prices, Bigger Incentives, Smaller Houses
8. 26 JanDOGE Seeks to Shed Vast Amounts of Government Office Space. Here’s How Much the Government Leases, and Where, and What Leases it Can Shed During Trump’s Term
9. 24 JanSales of Existing Homes Finally Begin to Thaw a Little, amid Highest Supply for December since 2018
10. 24 JanCollapse of the Solar Stocks
11. 22 JanSubprime, Prime, and Overall Auto-Loan Delinquency Rates: Why this Surge in “Subprime” Delinquencies when “Prime” Is Pristine?
12. 21 Jan“Locked-in” Homeowners Nevertheless Pay Off Below-4% Mortgages: their Share of All Mortgages Outstanding Drops to 55%, Lowest since Q1 2021
13. 19 JanThe Big Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Houses or Condos from their Peaks: From -9% to -21%
14. 18 JanBring on the Supply: Single-Family Construction Starts in 2024 Rose to 2nd Highest in 17 Years amid Budding Glut. Multifamily Starts Plunge from Boom amid Oversupply & CRE Depression
15. 17 JanECB Faces a Problem: Euro Area Services Inflation Stuck at 4.0% for 13th Month. CPI Accelerates Further, as Energy & Durable Goods Stopped Plunging
16. 16 JanThe Fed Needs to Watch Out: Amid Strong Demand from our Drunken Sailors, Retail Sales Surged in Late 2024 and Inflation Caught its Second Wind
17. 16 JanThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Dec. 2024 by Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, Edmonton, Winnipeg
18. 15 JanBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: YoY CPI +2.9%, Worst since July, MoM CPI +0.39% (+4.8% Annualized), Worst since February. Core CPI Stuck for 7th Month at 3.1%-3.3%
19. 14 JanPPI Inflation Accelerates to +3.3%, Driven by “Core Services,” +4.0%, both the Worst Readings in Nearly 2 Years
20. 13 JanSome Basics about U.S. Tariffs, and What Trump’s New Economic Team Said about Tariffs
21. 13 JanThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Dec 2024: In 21 of the 33 Metros, Prices Have Now Dropped Below 2022 Peaks
22. 11 JanTreasury Yield Curve Steepens, as Long-Term Yields Coddle Up to 5% while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, Not Seeing Any Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates Rise to 7.24%
23. 10 JanThis Strength of the Labor Market & Economy, amid Accelerating Inflation, Puts the Fed Back into Wait-and-See Mode
24. 9 Jan“Bond Market Rout” in the UK (like in the US) Only Pushes the 10-Year Yield into Low End of Old Normal after Many Years of Interest Rate Repression
25. 8 JanWhy Used-Vehicle Prices May Put Upward Pressure on CPI, after Having Been a Powerful Contributor to Cooling Inflation
26. 7 JanLabor Market Dynamics Retighten, Job Openings Jump Again. Fed Faces Scenario of Solid Job Market, Re-accelerating Inflation
27. 7 JanBank of Japan Balance Sheet: QT Takes Off, Assets Drop to Lowest in 15 Months
28. 6 JanStatus of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Hits 30-Year Low as Central Banks Pile on Other Currencies & Gold
29. 4 JanUgly Charts of US Auto Sales, 2024: Stellantis Spirals into Catastrophe, GM, Toyota, Ford, Honda Rise but far Below Peaks. Hyundai-Kia Sets Record. EV Sales +10% despite Tesla’s Dip
30. 3 JanFed Balance Sheet QT: -$43 Billion in December, -$2.11 Trillion from Peak, to $6.85 Trillion. Bank-Panic BTFP Nearly Gone
31. 2 JanWhat Should Tesla’s Stock Be Worth? Automaker, Stagnating Vehicle Sales like GM & Ford, Getting Overtaken by Competitors, Losing Share in the Booming EV Market?
32. 2 JanGlobal Stocks over the Long Term: the S&P 500, the Big Standout vs the Markets of Japan, China, Hong Kong, India, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Canada

2024 424

December 2024

1. 31 DecOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis Peak
2. 30 DecBuyers’ Strike Continues: Pending Home Sales Remain Deep in the Frozen Zone though up a Tad from Rock Bottom
3. 28 Dec10-Year Treasury Yield Rose 100 Basis Points since September as the Fed Cut 100 Basis Points. Why the Historic Divergence?
4. 27 DecSan Francisco House Prices Drop Back to 2019, Condo Prices to 2015, as Tech Jobs in the City & Silicon Valley Evaporate after Drunken Hiring Binge
5. 25 DecWho Bought and Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt, even as the Fed is Unloading its Treasury Securities?
6. 23 DecGlut of New Completed Single-Family Houses for Sale Spikes to Highest since 2007, Prices Drop to Lowest since 2021 But Are Still Way too High
7. 22 DecTreasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7%
8. 21 DecAfter Fed Trims ON RRP Rate by 5 Basis Points on Top of Rate Cut, ON RRPs Plunge to $98 Billion, Lowest since April 2021, -$2.3 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Zero
9. 20 DecWhat Powell Said at the FOMC about Today’s PCE Price Index: “We Still Have Work to Do Though, Is How We’re Looking at it. We Need policy to Remain Restrictive to Get that Work Done”
10. 20 DecCensus Bureau Massively Revises Up Population Growth: +8 Million in 3 Years, +3.3 Million Last Year, Largely due to Immigration. US Population Surges to 340 Million
11. 19 DecHome Sellers, Home Buyers, and Brokers Getting Used to the “New Normal” Old Normal 6-7% Mortgages?
12. 18 DecFed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.25%-4.50%, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, Sees Higher Inflation, Higher “Longer-Run” Rates. QT Continues
13. 17 DecThe Fed Needs to Watch Out to Not Throw More Fuel on this Demand: Retail Sales Accelerated Sharply in the 2nd Half
14. 17 DecHousing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment in Mortgage Lending
15. 16 DecThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Nov. 2024: Condo Prices Drop to New 3-Year Low, Single-Family Prices Stable at -17% from Peak in March 2022
16. 15 DecTreasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further on Surging Longer-Term Yields: 10-Year Yield Now Higher than All Shorter Yields. Mortgage Rates Resurge
17. 14 DecMoney Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs, and Total Deposits: Americans’ Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as Rates Drop
18. 13 DecThe ECB Steps Away from Bond Market Entirely, Speeds Up Bond QT even as it Cut Rates
19. 13 DecThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, November Update: Prices Drop in All 33 Big Metros, Most in Austin, Tampa, Dallas, San Antonio
20. 12 DecPPI, “Core” PPI, “Core Services” PPI Inflation Much Hotter after Whopper Up-Revisions Going Back Months
21. 11 DecBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: CPI & “Core” CPI Accelerate Further Month-to-Month, 3-Month Averages Heat Up for 4th Month. Year-over-Year, CPI Accelerates for 2nd Month
22. 11 DecGM Shuts Down its Misbegotten Robotaxi Money-Pit after Acquiring Cruise in 2016 and then Blowing $10 Billion on It
23. 9 DecCredit-Market Mania Crushed “Yield Spreads” & Risk Premiums, but Corporate & CRE Borrowing Costs Are Still Much Higher
24. 8 DecUsed-Vehicle Prices Turn into Inflation Headwind, after Historic 2-Year Plunge Helped Power the “Deceleration” of Core CPI
25. 6 DecLabor Market Doing Fine. The Fed Can be “Careful” with Rate Cuts. Maybe Time for Some Wait-and-See?
26. 6 DecFed Balance Sheet QT: -$98 Billion in November, -$2.07 Trillion from Peak, to $6.90 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020
27. 5 DecEverybody Should Get Used to these Mortgage Rates, Says Fannie Mae CEO: Mortgage Rates, 10-Year Treasury Yields, QT, and Spreads
28. 4 DecCut the Price and They Will Come: New-Vehicle Sales Jump amid Big Discounts and Incentives, as Inventory Balloons
29. 3 DecUnderlying Job Market Dynamics Begin to Retighten. The Fed Is Already Backpedaling on the Pace and Depth of Rate Cuts
30. 2 DecFactory Construction Spending Soars to New Record, +16% YoY, +242% since 2019: Result of Corporate & Strategic Rethink

November 2024

1. 30 NovOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever
2. 29 NovFederal Government Interest-Payments-to-Tax-Receipts Ratio Spikes, Debt-to-GDP Worsens Further in Q3
3. 27 NovInflation Re-Accelerates Despite Plunging Gasoline Prices as “Core Services” PCE Price Index Hits 7-Month High
4. 26 NovInventory of New Single-Family Houses Jumps to Highest since 2007. Unsold Spec Houses Jump to Highest since 2009 as Sales Suddenly Plunge
5. 25 NovAmericans Buy Ever Bigger, More Powerful, More Fuel-Efficient Trucks, SUVs & Cars. EVs Escalate the Horsepower War
6. 23 NovOperating Losses and “Unrealized” Losses of the Federal Reserve in Q3 2024
7. 23 NovUS National Debt Goes Over $36 Trillion, +$2 Trillion in 2024!! 🥂🍾
8. 22 NovUS Dollar Crushes Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, other Currencies as Fed Backpedals on Pace of Rate Cuts
9. 21 NovDemand Destruction for Existing Homes: Sales in 2024 Track Lowest since 1995 amid Highest Supply for October in 6 Years
10. 20 NovECB’s Own Measure of Wage Increases Blows Fuse, Sets Off Alarms about Stubbornly Hot Services Inflation
11. 19 NovCredit Card Delinquency Rates, Balances, Burden, and Available Credit in Q3 2024
12. 19 NovUS Treasury Debt Held by Foreign Investors: Ravenous Appetite for Juicy Yields, Juicy Compared to their Stuff at Home
13. 17 NovAuto-Loan Balances, Burden, Subprime & Prime Delinquency Rates, and Subprime Dealer America’s Car-Mart in Q3 2024
14. 15 NovThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Oct. 2024: Single-Family Prices Drop Most in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa. Condo Prices Hit 3-Year Low
15. 15 NovHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, the Burden of Housing Debt, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q3 2024
16. 14 NovAfter More Up-Revisions, “Core” PPI & “Core Services” PPI Inflation Get Much Worse, Accelerating All Year
17. 14 NovHousehold Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q3 2024
18. 13 NovBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Overall CPI Accelerates for 4th Month, “Core” CPI for 3rd Month on Re-spiking Used Vehicle Prices & Rising Homeowner Costs
19. 12 NovAmerican Risk Services is Looking for a Data Scientist. WOLF STREET Readers with this Background Take a Look
20. 12 NovThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, October Update: Prices Drop in 29 of 30 Big Metros, even San Diego & Los Angeles. Only New York City Ekes Out New High
21. 11 NovOur F-150 XLT & Camry LE Price Index, Going Back to 1990, Is Updated with 2025 Model-Year Prices. There Were Some Twists
22. 11 NovWe May Not Get Our Recession until the AI Spending Bubble Implodes
23. 8 NovWith Home Prices Way Too High, More People Profit from Arbitraging Vast Cost Difference between Renting and Buying
24. 7 NovFed’s Balance Sheet Drops Below $7 Trillion. QT: -$53 Billion in Oct., -$1.97 Trillion from Peak, to $6.99 Trillion, Back to May 2020
25. 7 NovFed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.75% Top of Range, as Telegraphed to Backpedal from Monster Cut. QT Continues
26. 7 NovTHANK YOU 💖 for Your Awesome Support of WOLF STREET!!! And if You Missed it, a Reminder: Please Donate
27. 6 NovLonger-term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked
28. 5 NovInventory of Existing Homes in Texas Balloons to Highest in Many Years, Prices Drift Lower but Are Still Way Too High
29. 4 NovSocial Security Update Fiscal 2024: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit
30. 4 NovOffice CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after the Financial Crisis
31. 3 NovBuffett T-bills & Chills: Piled up T-bills, Ditched Stocks, Bonds, and Share Buybacks in Q3
32. 2 NovFed’s ON RRPs Plunge to $155 Billion as QT Drains Liquidity, Nothing Blown Up Yet. SOFR & TGCR Spreads Begin to Move
33. 1 NovHurricanes Helene & Milton and the Boeing Strike Make Mess of Jobs Report. And Wages Surge
34. 1 NovDear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Fall 2024 Reminder
35. 1 NovSuper Micro Computer Becomes the First AI-Mania Highflyer in our Imploded Stocks

October 2024

1. 31 OctInflation Doesn’t Want to Cooperate: PCE Price Indices for Core, Core Services, and Durable Goods Worsen Further MoM
2. 30 OctOur Drunken Sailors Splurge in Q3, Phenomenally so on Durable Goods, Drive GDP Growth. But Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsens
3. 29 OctHiring Jumps for 3rd Month, Workers Cling to Jobs, Layoffs & Discharges Jump but Remain Low, Job Openings Fall
4. 28 OctBoeing Launches $22 Billion Share Offering to Get Breathing Room, Dodge Junk Credit Rating, after Having Wasted $64 Billion on Share Buybacks
5. 26 OctTreasury Yield Curve Un-Inversion Hits Milestone on Inflation Fears, Tsunami of Supply, QT. Mortgage Rates Near 7%
6. 25 OctTreasury Buybacks: Update on the Bond Market Bloodletting
7. 24 OctInventory of New Spec Houses Spikes to Highest since 2009, Sales Grow as Builders Pile on Incentives and Trim Prices
8. 23 OctDemand Destruction for Existing Homes: Sales in 2024 to Plunge Below 4 Million Homes, Lowest since 1995, as Supply Spikes
9. 22 OctThe Future of QT, Balance Sheet Composition, and Liquidity: Fed’s Lorie Logan
10. 21 OctMortgage Rates Explode to 6.82%, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.20%, +55 Basis Points since Monster Rate Cut
11. 20 OctWhich Foreign Countries Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: An Increasingly Crucial Question. Many Piled it up. Cleanest Dirty Shirt?
12. 18 OctUsed Vehicles Getting Ready to Turn into Inflation Headwind, after Historic Plunge Had Powered Core CPI “Deceleration”
13. 17 OctLanding Cancelled? Retail Sales Jump, Prior Months Revised Up, Boost Atlanta Fed GDPNow to +3.4% Inflation-Adjusted GDP Growth
14. 16 OctHome-Purchase Demand Destruction Accelerates, Prices Too High, Buyers’ Strike Deepens: Sales of Existing Homes Head for Worst Year since 1995
15. 16 OctThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Sept Update: Prices Drop in 26 of 28 Big Metros, even San Diego, Los Angeles
16. 15 OctThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, September: Biggest Drops in Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, even Calgary Gives, amid Surge of New Listings. Condos Get Hit Hard
17. 14 OctVenture Capital Slammed by Fed Tightening: Exits Blocked after IPOs & SPACs Collapsed, Distributions at Financial Crisis Lows
18. 13 OctWhat If There’s No Landing at all, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation?
19. 11 OctAfter Large Up-Revisions, “Core” & “Core Services” PPI Inflation Not Benign at All. Whole Scenario Changed for the Worse
20. 10 OctBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: “Core CPI” Accelerates for 3rd Month on Sharp Flip of Used Vehicle Prices, Sticky Services Inflation. Gasoline Plunged
21. 9 OctBond Market Smells a Rat: On Eve of CPI Inflation Data, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.08%, +43 bps since Monster Rate Cut
22. 8 OctFlorida Housing Market Buckles, Listing Prices Sag to 30-Month Low but Are Still Way Too High, Inventory Piles Up, Institutional Investors Turn into Net Sellers
23. 8 OctPeople Are Now on Buyers’ Strike Because Home Prices Are too High: Fannie Mae
24. 7 OctMore Evidence this May Be the End of the Historic Plunge of Used Vehicle Prices that Had Pushed Down CPI
25. 6 OctMortgage Rates Explode, 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Monster Rate-Cut Hopes Doused, Inflation Fears Resurface: Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut
26. 4 OctOK, Forget it, False Alarm, Labor Market Is Fine, Bad Stuff Last Month Was Revised Away, Wages Jumped. No More Rate Cuts Needed?
27. 4 OctFed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in Sept., -$1.92 Trillion from Peak, to $7.05 Trillion, Back to May 2020. To Drop Below $7 Trillion in 1-2 Months
28. 3 OctHere Come the Vacant Homes: New Listings Jump when they Normally Drop in September, Active Listings Pile up, Listing Prices Drop below 2 Years Ago. Buyers on Strike, Prices too High
29. 3 OctUgly Q3 for ICE Vehicles. Total Q3 Sales Dropped Year-over-Year. But EV Sales Jumped, even at GM & Ford
30. 2 OctTesla’s Global Deliveries Rise, Best Q3 Ever, But Not Enough to Fix the Shattered High-Growth Story
31. 2 OctEpic Office Glut Hits Records in San Francisco, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington DC. Dallas Availability Rate Dips to 30%, Houston rises to 29%
32. 1 OctBalance of Power Changed, Employers Re-exert Control, but also Cling to their Workers

September 2024

1. 30 SepCRE Mess Not Letting Up: CMBS Delinquency Rates Jump in September as Office, Retail, and Lodging Deteriorate Further
2. 29 SepStatus of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Share Drops to Lowest since 1995. Central Banks Diversify to “Nontraditional” Currencies and Gold
3. 28 SepConsumer Income & Savings Rate Revised Massively Higher for 2 Years, Spending Revised Up Too. Stunning Numbers
4. 27 SepFed Favored Annual Core PCE Price Index Accelerates to 2.7%, Highest since April, on Higher Core Services Inflation (+3.8%). Durable Goods -2.2%, Energy -10%
5. 26 SepCorporate Pricing Power and Therefore Inflation Not Vanquished, Says Renewed Spike in Corporate Profits in Most Industries
6. 25 SepHere Comes the Inventory of New Spec Houses, Highest since 2009. Sales Jump, Builders Take Share from Homeowners
7. 25 SepWho Holds all these US Treasury Securities? Update on the Investors in the Ballooning US National Debt in Q2
8. 24 SepJob Losses Pile Up at Tech & Social Media Companies in San Francisco & Silicon Valley after Reckless Hiring Frenzy
9. 23 SepDays after Rate Cut, S&P’s Flash PMI Sees Rising Inflation and Exhorts the Fed to “Move Cautiously” with “Further Rate Cuts”
10. 22 SepThe Yield Curve Before & After the Rate Cut: Why Have Longer-Term Yields Risen since the Rate Cut? Already Priced in? Inflation Concerns as Policy Loosens in a Decent Economy?
11. 20 SepTesla Model Y Now Just a Hair from #1 Bestselling Model in the US, Toyota RAV4. Former #1 Ford F-150 is #3. Stellantis Plunges off Greed Cliff. EV Share Rises to 9.0%
12. 19 SepDemand for Existing Homes Wilts, Supply Spikes to Highest for any August since 2018, Prices Dip, Despite Mortgage Rates that Have Plunged for 10 Months
13. 19 SepFannie Mae Gets Gloomier about Home Sales, Buyers’ Strike to Continue Despite Dropping Mortgage Rates & Surging Listings
14. 18 SepFed Cuts by 50 Basis Points, to 5.0% Top of Range, Sees Additional 50 Basis Points in 2024, QT Continues
15. 17 SepRecession Not Yet: Retail Sales Help Push Up Atlanta Fed GDPNow to +3.0% for Q3 GDP
16. 17 SepUsed-Vehicle Unit Sales Jump. Those Much Lower Prices Bring Out the Buyers
17. 16 SepThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, August: Home Prices -3.9% YoY, -16% from Peak with Biggest Drops in Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, Victoria, Ottawa as Montreal, Vancouver Dip
18. 13 SepMoney Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs, and T-Bills: Americans and their Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash
19. 13 SepThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Declines Spread to 25 Metros of Top 28, with 19 Below 2022 Peaks. 3 Set New Highs
20. 12 SepServices PPI Bounces Back in August from July, Rises Year-over-Year. Core Goods PPI Jumps
21. 11 SepBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: “Core CPI” Again Accelerates Month-to-Month Fueled by Hot “Core Services” CPI. Durable Goods Prices Drop Further
22. 10 SepBank of Canada Balance Sheet QT: -52% from Peak, QT Continues even after Third Rate Cut
23. 9 SepThis May Be the End of the Massive Deflation in Used Vehicles that Pushed Down Core CPI: Wholesale Prices Surge for 2nd Month amid Strong Sales Growth & Tight Inventories
24. 9 SepThe Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions
25. 7 SepRate Cut Mania Now Crushing Stocks after Whipping Stocks into Frenzy or Whatever. Mag 7 Down $2.5 Trillion from Peak, Nasdaq Bloodied, Semis Crushed
26. 6 SepThe Fed Has Room to Cut, Rates Are High Relative to Inflation, and Job Growth Could Use some Juicing Up
27. 6 SepFed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in August, -$1.85 Trillion from Peak, to $7.11 Trillion, back to June 2020, Another QT Milestone
28. 5 SepBuyers’ Strike Deepened in August Despite Lower Mortgage Rates. Listings Surge, Home Sellers Slowly Drop Prices
29. 4 SepIs the Labor Market “Normalizing?” What Even Is “Normal?”
30. 4 SepBloodletting in Semiconductor Stocks Kicks Off September: Nvidia -11.7% Regular & Late Trading, Market Cap Drops by Half a Tesla
31. 3 SepConstruction Spending Squeaks to Record amid Eyepopping Boom in Spending on Factories while Residential Construction Tries to Dig Out of Last Year’s Slump
32. 2 SepWhy We’ll Replace the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Our Series, “The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America”

August 2024

1. 30 AugOur Drunken Sailors Are at it Again, Not at All in the Mood for a Slowdown or a Recession
2. 30 AugFed Favored Annual Core PCE Price Index Slightly Up, at 2.6%: Core Services Inflation 3.7%, Durable Goods Deflation -2.5%
3. 30 AugSpiking Interest Payments on the Ballooning US Government Debt v. Tax Receipts, GDP, and Inflation: Q2 Update
4. 29 AugBuyers’ Strike Deepens: Pending Home Sales Drop to Record Low Despite Surging Supply & Much Lower Mortgage Rates that Already Price in Massive Rate Cuts
5. 28 AugTreasury Department Aggressively Pushes Down Long-Term Interest Rates via Shift to T-bill Issuance and Bond Buybacks
6. 27 AugThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Aug 2024 Update: Prices Decelerate. Below 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas
7. 26 AugManufacturing (beyond Boeing) Not Dead: Orders Rose to New Highs in 2024, after a Little Dip in 2023, after Pandemic Boom
8. 26 AugThe Data Mess. Markets, Interest Rates & Inflation and There’s Still No Recession; Risks of Financialization & Overleverage
9. 24 AugThe Rate Cuts Powell Dangled in Front of Markets May Slam into Inflationary Fiscal & Economic Policies of Whoever Is in the White House Next Year
10. 23 AugInventory of New Completed Houses Surges to Highest since 2009, Triple from 2 Years Ago, Exactly What’s Needed to Bring Down Prices across the Housing Market
11. 22 AugHere Comes the Inventory of Vacant Homes while Buyers’ Strike Continues despite Drop in Mortgage Rates
12. 21 AugHome Buyers’ Strike Expands even as Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest since May 2023. Surging Refis to Speed Up the Fed’s QT
13. 21 AugNonfarm Job Creation for 12 Months through March Revised Down by 818,000, to 2.08 Million Jobs Created, from 2.90 Million
14. 21 AugBanks Still Stuck with $13 Billion in Risky Loans from Musk’s LBO of Twitter 22 Months Ago, Possibly the Longest Hung Deal of this Size Ever
15. 20 AugQT Continues: ECB Balance Sheet: -€2.39 Trillion or -27% from Peak, to €6.45 Trillion, Lowest since August 2020
16. 20 AugThe Only Thing Pushing Up Retail Sales Is Ecommerce. Brick-and-Mortar Sales Have Stagnated for 2 Years
17. 19 AugChina Obscures Stock Market Fund Flows by Foreign Investors: Another Effort to Prop Up the Relentless Long-Term Money Pit
18. 18 AugWolf Richter on Construction Disruption, Topped Off by: “What Keeps You Awake at Night”
19. 17 AugA Big Week for Stocks, a Huge 7 Days for Nvidia (+26%), after the Battering They’d Taken
20. 16 AugPlunge of Single-Family Construction Starts in July Was Huge Outlier. See Hurricane Beryl. Multifamily Jumped 45% from March Low despite CRE Depression
21. 16 AugThese Retail Sales, in Face of Dropping Prices of Goods Retailers Sell, Support Solid Growth in “Real” GDP & Inflation-Adjusted Consumer Spending
22. 15 AugMost Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, July 2024 – Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Ottawa, Calgary, Montreal, Edmonton, Quebec, Winnipeg: Market “Hits Pause” Despite 2 Rate Cuts
23. 14 AugBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Broad Month-to-Month Acceleration, Services CPI Bounces Back from Outlier, Plunge in Durable Goods Prices Slows
24. 13 AugServices PPI & Core PPI YoY Were Pushed Down by Extreme Base Effect That’ll Flip Next Month for Rest of 2024
25. 12 AugB. Riley Financial Collapses 52% Today, -91% in 2.5 Years since Peak Consensual Hallucination
26. 10 AugKind of a Funny Week for Stocks, Lots of Drama, Little Change: But Tesla & Nvidia Ended Deeper in the Hole
27. 9 AugCredit Card “Delinquency Rates” Drop for 4th Month despite Confusion over NY Fed’s “Transition into Delinquency Rates”
28. 9 AugAuto Loans, the Burden of Auto Loans, Subprime Lending, and Delinquencies in Q2
29. 8 AugPE Firm Blackstone’s Epic Pump-n-Dump with Bumble now down to just a Mop-up Operation: Shares -94% since IPO Pop
30. 8 AugHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, the Burden of Mortgage Debt, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q2
31. 7 AugUsed Car & Truck Prices Suddenly Bounce, Inventories Tighten: End of Historic Plunge that Pushed CPI Inflation Down?
32. 7 AugHousehold Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q2
33. 6 AugFed’s ON RRPs Plunge to $292 Billion, -$2 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Near-Zero, and Nothing Has Blown Up Yet
34. 5 AugDespite the Recession-Emergency-Rate-Cut Buffoonery, the Services Sector Expands Strongly on Growth in New Orders & Employment. Inflation Pressures Still On
35. 5 AugUS Stocks Open into Mess but Whiff of Panic Fades after Japan Crashed 12% Today, 20% since BOJ Ended Free Money
36. 4 AugBerkshire Dumped Nearly Half its Apple Shares plus Other Stocks into Final Burst of Rally, Bought T-Bills. Cash is King
37. 3 AugStocks Swoon amid Rate-Cut Hopes after they’d Soared amid Rate-Cut Hopes? Whatever. Mag 7 -$2.26 Trillion from Peak, Semis Crushed, Nasdaq Bloodied
38. 2 AugJapanese Stocks Plunge, Yen Rises from the Ashes as BOJ Hikes, Ends Free Money, and Starts QT
39. 2 AugGrowth in Jobs Slows to 2017-2019 Pace, Unemployment Rate Rises as Massive Wave of Immigrants Is Absorbed More Slowly
40. 1 AugEyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US Reaches New Highs amid Big Corporate & Strategic Rethink
41. 1 AugValues of Old Office Towers Go to Near-Zero, but the Land Has Value: UBS Gets Off with Black Eye
42. 1 AugHow Powell Kept a September Rate Cut up in the Air: It Will All Depend on the Data till Then

July 2024

1. 31 JulFed Statement Silent about September Rate Cut, Still Waiting for “Greater Confidence” about Inflation, Keeps Rates Unchanged
2. 31 JulBank of Japan Hikes by 25 Basis Points and Starts QT: Too Little Too Late but in Right Direction to Prop Up the Plunging Yen
3. 31 JulMagnificent 7 Down by $2.09 Trillion from Peak, then Microsoft Comes Out and Makes Further Mess Afterhours
4. 30 JulThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July 2024 Update. Below 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas. New Highs: Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego…
5. 29 JulWithout Share Buybacks, Subprime-Focused Retailer-Lender Conn’s Wouldn’t Have Had to File for Bankruptcy
6. 29 JulA Fed Rate Cut in September or More Wait-and-See? Is the US the Next Japan? Shakeout & Price Cuts in the Auto Industry?
7. 28 JulUS National Debt Hits $35 Trillion. Debt-to-GDP Ratio, at Scary Levels, Dips a Tad. And T-Bills’ Share of this Debt
8. 26 JulLarge Upward Revisions of “Core Services” PCE Inflation Pushed Six-Month “Core” PCE Inflation to 3.4%, Worst in a Year
9. 26 JulWinemaker SPAC with Dozens of Brands, Result of PE-Firm Backed Rollup, Files for Bankruptcy 3 Years after SPAC Merger
10. 25 JulEconomy Re-Accelerates in Q2. Our Drunken Sailors Splurge on Durable Goods, Investment Jumps, Federal Gov Undoes Blip
11. 25 JulMagnificent 7 Got on Elevator to the Moon but Someone Pushed a Wrong Button: -$1.77 Trillion in 10 Days. Tesla Blows Fuse
12. 24 JulNew-House Prices Solidly below Existing House Prices as Inventory Piles Up. Sales Hobble Along, Supported by Big Incentives & Mortgage-Rate Buydowns
13. 23 JulHere Comes the Inventory of Vacant Homes: With Buyers on Strike despite Lower Mortgage Rates, Supply Spikes to Highest in 4 Years. Sales Drop Further except at High End
14. 22 JulCRE Gets Strangled, Corporate Bankruptcies Highest since 2010, but Junk Bonds & Broad Financial Conditions in La-La-Land
15. 21 JulSmall Stocks Keeled Over after Brief Super-Hyped “Rotation” Spike. Magnificent 7 lost $1.3 trillion in Seven Days
16. 19 JulNon-Tesla EV Sales +45% in Q2 YoY in California, Tesla -24%: People Have Had it with Musk’s Bullshit about California and San Francisco?
17. 19 JulThe Foreign Investors Who Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: July Update
18. 18 JulMagnificent 7 Stocks Lose $1.1 Trillion in Five Days, and It’s Barely a Blip. Trillions Don’t Even Matter Anymore
19. 17 JulHome Buyers Still on Strike even as Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest since March. But Refis Jump to Highest since Aug 2022
20. 16 JulRetail Sales Excl. Autos & Gasoline Jump by Most in 18 Months & Pushed Up Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 2.5% from 2.0% Last Week
21. 15 JulSimon Property Group Jettisons another Mall, to Manage its Way through the Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown by Shrinking and Walking away from Debts
22. 13 JulWhat the Short-Term Treasury Market Says about Rate Cuts, and How Repeatedly Wrong it Was so Far
23. 13 JulThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, June: A Rate Cut, and? Overall Prices Don’t Move, -14% from Peak, -3.4% YoY. Sales -9.4% YoY
24. 12 JulServices PPI Inflation Dishes Up Another Nasty Surprise, 6th Month in a Row. Bottom of U-Turn was in December
25. 11 JulBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Historic Plunge in Durable Goods Prices, Plunge in Gasoline, and Outliers in Services
26. 10 JulHome Buyers Remain on Strike, Housing Market Still Frozen as Prices Are Too High, Mortgage Rates Still 7%
27. 10 JulHere Comes the Housing Inventory as Sales Plunge: Active Listings Explode in Tampa, Orlando, Denver, San Diego, Jacksonville, Miami and Surge in other Metros
28. 9 JulUsed Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike
29. 8 JulWho Made or Lost What between Brookfield, Starwood, MetLife? An Office CRE Deal of the Low-Interest-Rate Era Gets Shredded in Foreclosure
30. 7 JulThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Europe: Biggest Price Drops in Germany, Finland, Sweden, Austria, France, Denmark
31. 5 JulFed Balance Sheet QT: -$34 Billion in June, -$1.74 Trillion from Peak, to $7.22 Trillion, Lowest since November 2020
32. 5 JulJob Growth Back to Normal Pre-Covid Pace, Wage Growth Still Higher: Longer-Term Employment Trends by Industry
33. 5 JulWhat’s the Cost of Mortgage-Rate Buydowns and Other Incentives to Homebuilders? Lennar Discloses the Numbers
34. 4 JulNew Vehicle Sales, Q2: EVs Surge YoY, Except Tesla. Stellantis Drops to #6 for First Time, behind Honda. GM & Ford ICE Vehicles Dip YoY, but their EVs Spike. Prices Drop
35. 3 JulIt Gets Still Messier with CRE Loans, Bottom Not in Sight: CMBS Delinquencies for Office, Retail, Lodging Lead the Parade
36. 2 JulInflation Saga Far from Over: Services CPI in the Euro Area Refuses to Slow for 8th Month in a Row
37. 1 JulAnother of Our Imploded Stocks Ends in Bankruptcy: Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment, 2 Years after its Infamous Redbox Acquisition
38. 1 JulIs High-Inflation Finally Behind Us? Is Canada Housing in a Bear Market? What’s Behind the Yen’s Plunge? Will the CDK Chaos Hit June Auto Sales? And More…

June 2024

1. 30 JunStatus of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify from USD-Assets to Other Currencies and to Gold
2. 29 JunOur Drunken Sailors Leaving the Party? Nah, Not Yet: Incomes, Transfer Receipts, Spending, Saving, and Inflation
3. 28 JunFed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Makes Sense amid Whiplash Data: Still Worst 6-Month “Core” PCE Inflation since mid-2023 but Freak Plunge in Durable Goods
4. 28 JunCorporate Profits by Major Industry, Q1 Update: “Greedflation” Hits Ceiling in Some Industries but Still Thrives in Others?
5. 27 JunDemand for Homes Drops to (Near) Record Low as Inventory Rises. Now Come the “Stabilizing Home Prices”: NAR
6. 26 JunYen Drops to 161 against USD. -34% since 2020, -53% since 2012. Currency Collapse Comes to Mind. Bank of Japan Finally Gets Nervous about its Crazed Monetary Policies
7. 25 JunThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June 2024 Update. San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Dallas, Las Vegas still below 2022 Peak
8. 25 JunInflation in Canada Throws Another Curveball: Core CPI Spikes Month-to-Month by Most since 2022
9. 25 JunFord F-150 Falls off Cliff in Q1 Registrations, Toyota RAV4 Leaps to #1, Tesla Model Y Gains Share, Still #2 Bestseller in the US
10. 24 JunLargest Auto Dealers Begin to Warn about Impact of Ransomware Attack Crippling Dealer Software Provider CDK
11. 23 JunWho Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt of $34.7 Trillion?
12. 21 JunHome Sales Sag Further, Hit by Mortgage Rates. Price Cuts & Active Listings Surge. Median Price Skewed by Surge in High-End Sales
13. 20 JunGlobal Steel Production Update: China’s Property Crisis & Manufacturing Slowdown Trigger China’s Worst Ever 3-Year Drop of Steel Production, after Years of Blistering Growth
14. 20 JunThe Foreign Holders of the Ballooning US Debt: They’re Buying, But Don’t Keep Up
15. 19 JunThe Collapse of the EV SPACs: Fisker Joins the Bankruptcy Party, Others on the Verge
16. 18 JunOur Drunken Sailors Bought Lots of Stuff at Retailers, including Vehicles, But at Prices that Fell from the Pandemic Spike
17. 18 JunHot Wage Growth Bedevils Wishlist for ECB Rate Cuts
18. 17 JunThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, May 2024: Prices Drop Further, -14.4% from Feb 2022 Peak, -2.4% YoY, back to Sep 2021. Spring Rally Dud
19. 15 JunJunta of Mega-Cap Stocks Rules. Rest of the Market? Russell 2000 Hits Jan 2021 Level, S&P 500 Equal Weight Hits Jan 2022
20. 14 JunRate-Cut Mania’s 20.7% Spike in French Stock Market Comes Home to Roost
21. 14 JunFed Liabilities under QT Drop $1.71 Trillion, to $7.22 Trillion: Reserves, ON RRPs, Currency, TGA, Foreign Official RRPs
22. 12 JunBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: A Stunning Outlier Services CPI Drove Down Everything Else
23. 12 JunFed Sees Only 1 Rate Cut in 2024, Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT Continues at Slower Pace as Announced in May
24. 11 JunFitch Doesn’t See Bottom of Office CRE Mess, Sees CMBS Delinquency Rates Spike Way Past Financial Crisis Peak in 2025
25. 10 JunUsed Car Wholesale Prices Continue Plunge, Gave up 59% of Pandemic Spike. But still up 35% from Jan 2020: EVs +72%, ICE Vehicles +34%
26. 9 JunThe Desire to Be “Your Own Boss” in America
27. 8 JunLonger-Term Trends of Employment by Industry Category
28. 7 JunA Jobs Report You’d Expect from an Economy Humming along in an Inflationary Environment
29. 7 JunFed Balance Sheet QT: -$107 Billion in May, -$1.71 Trillion from Peak, to $7.26 Trillion, Lowest since December 2020
30. 6 JunTHANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! If You Missed it two Weeks ago, a Reminder: Please Donate
31. 5 JunMortgage Rates Rise, Over 7% since Early April, Buyers Remain on Strike, Housing Market Still Frozen as Prices Are Too High
32. 5 JunBank of Canada Cuts by 25 basis points, to 4.75% as Economy and Inflation Slowed. QT Continues
33. 5 JunBank of Japan Ended QE as the Yen Got Crushed
34. 4 JunThis Labor Market Is Still Tight, Just Not as Crazy-Tight as it Was
35. 4 JunCRE Industry Now Frets about Next Existential Threat to Office Towers: AI
36. 3 JunEyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US: Semiconductors, Auto Industry, and Everyone Else
37. 2 JunSpiking Interest Payments on the Ballooning US Government Debt v. Tax Receipts and Inflation: Q1 Update
38. 1 JunCan We Finally Get Deals on New Vehicles? Auto Loans a Canary in the Coalmine? Rate Cuts by the Bank of Canada if the Fed Won’t Cut? Are Banks Constricting Credit?

May 2024

1. 31 MayFed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Supported by Worst 6-Month “Core” & “Core Services” PCE Inflation since mid-2023
2. 31 MaySoftware Stocks Got Massacred, after Salesforce & UiPath Bloodbath. Bad Breath of AI?
3. 30 MayNonresidential CRE Loans Are Leaving Skid Marks on Banks
4. 29 MayStatus of Banks’ Unrealized Losses in Q1: Worsened after Brief Rate-Cut-Mania Relief
5. 28 MayThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, April 2024 Update. Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak in San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas
6. 28 MayServices Inflation for Japanese Businesses Spikes by Most since 1991, Bank of Japan Gets Lots of Rate-Hike Ammo
7. 25 MayBank of England to Sell All Remaining Bonds and Use Repos Instead to Manage Liquidity & Financial Stability
8. 24 MayCensus Bureau Revises Away 25% of Pandemic-Era Price Spike of New Single-Family Houses
9. 23 MayRemember Headlines 2 Weeks Ago, Labor Market “Suddenly” Weakens as Unemployment Claims “Spike”: It just Got Unwound
10. 22 MayHome Sales Whacked by Mortgage Rates. Active Listings & Price Reductions Jump to Highest in Years. But Sales of High-End Homes Surge
11. 21 MayNew-Vehicle Supply Turns to Glut for Many Brands. Automakers Roll out Incentives, but Not Nearly Enough
12. 20 MayHow Home Purchases and Rentals Are Key to Bringing Down Inflation: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Explains
13. 19 MayDear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2024 Reminder
14. 19 MaySubprime Auto Loans Are Getting Messy
15. 17 MayAs Rest of Retail Stagnates, Ecommerce is Hot. And what Walmart Said about this Phenomenon
16. 16 MayWho Fell Behind on their Credit Cards: Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Available Credit, and the “Maxed Out”
17. 16 MayThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Spring Rally Fizzles, Prices -14% from Peak in Feb 2022, Below Sep 2021
18. 15 MayBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, April: After Some Zigs, a Zag. But 6-Month Core CPI Hits 4.0%, 6-Month Core Services CPI Hits 6.0%, Both Highest since mid-2023
19. 15 MayHere Come the HELOCs in Household Debt: Mortgages, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures
20. 14 MayHousehold Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: The Free-Money Era Is Over for our Not So Drunken Sailors
21. 14 MayPPI Inflation Acts Up in a Nasty Way: It Spikes after Big Downward Revisions
22. 13 MayThere’s a Boom in Distressed Debt Exchanges to Deal with Leveraged-Loan Defaults
23. 13 MayFunny How Wall Street Tries so Hard to Get Homeowners to Pay Interest & Fees on their Own Money
24. 11 MayJunk-Bond Issuance Nearly Doubles YTD, amid Feverish Demand in La-la-Land and Ultra-Loose Financial Conditions
25. 10 MayVacation-Rental SPAC Vacasa Restructures. Shares -97% in 2.5 Years as Public Company
26. 9 MayOur Favorite Recession Indicator: Next Recession Keeps Moving Further Out
27. 8 MayAd-Tech Outfit DoubleVerify Plunges 40% Today, -62% from Peak, 3 Years after IPO. Nabs WOLF STREET Downgrade to “Should Have Never Bought”
28. 7 MayUsed Car Prices Continue Historic Plunge, Wholesale Prices Gave up 59% of Crazy Pandemic Spike
29. 6 MayBuffett Invests in T-bills instead of Stocks, Waits for Bad Stuff to Happen, Cash is King at 5%-plus
30. 5 MayThe Reasons the Fed’s Bowman is “Willing” to Hike Rates if “Data Indicate Progress on Inflation Has Stalled or Reversed”
31. 4 MayThe Inflation Surge, Effects of this Sudden Divergence between the Fed and other Central Banks, the Corporate & Government Debt Bubbles, Housing, and the New & Used Car Markets Now
32. 4 MayWhich Industries Lost Jobs, Which Gained Jobs: Longer-Term Employment Trends in Charts
33. 3 MayJobs, Wages, Mass Immigration, Full- and Part-Time Workers, Unemployment, Prime-Age Participation Rate, and Multiple Jobholders (who are they anyway?)
34. 3 MayFed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.60 Trillion from Peak, to $7.36 Trillion, Lowest since December 2020
35. 2 MayDelinquencies of Floating-Rate Office CMBS Loans Hit 20%, But Fixed-Rate Loans at 4.7%
36. 2 MayOh Deary, Where Did my Rate Cuts Go? Fed’s Wait-and-See Now Entrenched? And Suddenly Lots of Talk about “Rate Hikes”
37. 1 MayFed Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT Slowdown Starts in June, Acknowledged Inflation is a Problem Again

April 2024

1. 30 AprThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America amid the Now-Fizzled Rate-Cut Mania & Erstwhile Plunge in Mortgage Rates
2. 29 AprSagging Used-Car Prices, Spiking Maintenance & Repair Costs, and a Post-Bankruptcy Propaganda Coup Turn Toxic for Hertz
3. 28 AprMoney Market Funds, T-Bills, Large CDs, Small CDs: Americans Learn to Arbitrage the Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates
4. 26 AprFed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Further Supported by Extra-Hot “Core Services” PCE Inflation & Hot “Core” PCE Inflation
5. 25 AprOur Drunken Sailors Splurge on Services, Fixed Investment Surges. But Much-Worse Imports Drag Bigly on GDP. And there’s a Blip in Government Spending
6. 24 AprBiggest Landlords Pile into “Build-to-Rent” Single-Family Houses, but Sell Older Houses into this Overpriced Market
7. 24 AprHow It’ll Take Years to Clean Up the Office CRE Mess, with Losses Spread Far and Wide
8. 23 AprPrices of New Houses v. Existing Houses: Why New-House Sales Held Up as Existing-House Sales Plunged
9. 22 AprBrick-and-Mortar Meltdown Fells Express. Simon Property & Brookfield, to Avert Vacant Stores and Bad Leases at their Malls, to Buy the Brands and 435 Stores out of Bankruptcy
10. 20 AprNvidia, Supermicro Make Huge Mess of AI-Semiconductor Mania, Netflix Plunges, Big Tech Follows
11. 19 AprFed’s Liabilities and QT: as ON RRPs Plunge toward Zero, Operating Losses Begin to Decline
12. 18 AprHome Sales Clobbered by Mortgage Rates. New Listings & Active Listings Surge. Most Price Reductions for any March in Years
13. 17 AprMortgage Rates over 7% and Heading Higher, Housing Market Still Frozen, Lots of Buyers on Strike as Prices Still Too High
14. 16 AprYen Drops to 155 against USD. Currency Collapse at Work, -32% against USD since 2021, -50% since 2012
15. 15 AprOur Drunken Sailors Binge despite Higher Interest Rates, and the Fed Watches them Nervously
16. 14 AprBanks’ Exposure to CRE Loans by Bank Size
17. 12 AprThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Home Prices Dip Further, -14% from Peak in March 2022, Now Below Sep 2021
18. 11 AprTwo Things about the PPI Today: The March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, and the 3-Month Rates All Jumped
19. 11 AprTreasury Yields Spike, 3-Year by 25 Basis Points. Mortgage Rates Hit 7.34%. Services Inflation Smacks Down Rate-Cut Mania
20. 10 AprBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far from Over
21. 9 AprThe Biggest Landlords of Single-Family Rental Houses and Multifamily Apartments: Who Owns the US Housing Stock?
22. 8 AprWhat Jamie Dimon Said about Long-Term Inflation, Fed Interest Rates (“2% to 8% or even more”), and QE/QT (it’s Risky)
23. 8 AprBank of Canada Balance Sheet QT Sheds 64% of Pandemic QE Assets, Indicates QT Might End in September 2025
24. 7 AprECB Balance Sheet QT: -€2.2 Trillion from Peak, to €6.61 Trillion. Shed 25% of Total Assets, 53% of Pandemic QE
25. 6 Apr10-Year Yield Hits 4.40% as Bond Market Begins to Adjust to Higher Forever: Higher Rates and Higher Inflation
26. 5 AprNothing in the Jobs Report Indicates the Fed Should Cut Rates: Labor Market Plugging Along Just Fine despite 5.5% Rates
27. 5 AprFed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.53 Trillion from Peak, to $7.44 Trillion, Lowest since February 2021. The BTFP Plunged by $34 Billion
28. 4 AprFed’s Kashkari Says Quiet Part Out Loud: Maybe No Rate Cuts in 2024 if Inflation Continues to Move “Sideways”
29. 3 AprHow the Huge Wave of Immigrants into the US in 2022 and 2023 Impacts the Employment Data of the BLS Household Survey
30. 3 AprSide Effect of US Oil & Gas Boom: Record Ethane Production & Exports
31. 2 AprThis Labor Market Is Not Loosening Further: Fed Gets More Reason for Wait-and-See
32. 2 AprOffice CRE Mess Keeps Getting Worse, Massive Repricing Underway
33. 1 AprUS Coal Production, Consumption, Exports & Imports in 2023: Consumption Plunges to Lowest since 1963. But Exports Rise

March 2024

1. 31 MarCurse of Easy Money: US Government Interest Payments on the Ballooning Debt v. Tax Receipts, Higher Interest Rates, Inflation
2. 30 MarHigher Inflation, Higher Rates Forever? Will the Fed Let CRE Turmoil Run its Course? Is QT Hitting Dollar Liquidity Outside the US? And More…
3. 29 MarOur Drunken Sailors Went Partying Again: Consumer Spending on Services, even Adjusted for Inflation, is Red-Hot
4. 29 MarFed’s Wait-and-See about Rate Cuts Supported by Highest-since-July Six-Month Core PCE & Core Services PCE Inflation
5. 28 MarResurging Corporate Profits Show Inflationary Pressures Are Reheating after Lull: Corporate Profits by Major Industry
6. 27 MarAmid Canada’s Huge Immigration Surge, Population Growth Hits 3.2%, Fuels 10% Rent Inflation, even as Home Prices Drop
7. 26 MarThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2024 Update: Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, Las Vegas
8. 25 MarPrices of New Houses -19% from Peak, Lowest since June 2021. Why Sales of New Houses Held Up, while Sales of Existing Houses Plunged
9. 23 MarThe Fed’s Liabilities: How Far Can QT Go? What’s the Lowest Possible Level of the Balance Sheet without Blowing Stuff Up?
10. 22 MarPrices of Existing Homes in Germany Tank 14% so far, as ECB-Fueled Housing Bubble Turns into Housing Bust
11. 21 MarAmid Weak Demand for Existing Homes, Active Listings & Price Reductions Jump, Listing Prices Weaken
12. 21 MarWhat Powell Said About Slowing the Pace of QT: “By Going Slower, You Can Get Farther”
13. 20 MarFed Still Sees 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, But 2-Cut Scenario only 1 Participant Short, Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT Continues as Planned
14. 20 MarIntel to Get $23 Billion in Government Grants & Loans Plus $25 Billion Investment Tax Credits, to Invest $100 Billion in the US, after Wasting $94 Billion on Share Buybacks in 15 Years
15. 19 MarBank of Japan Keeps Making its Loosest-Ever Monetary Policy Slightly Less Loose in Tiny Steps at Slowest-Ever Snail’s Pace
16. 19 MarThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: National House Prices Flat in Feb., -16% from Peak, Condos Drop Further, on Bank of Canada’s 5% & Massive QT
17. 18 MarBrick-and-Mortar Meltdown Fells another Retailer: Joann Inc. Files for Bankruptcy 3 Years after IPO
18. 18 MarWho’s on the Hook for Multifamily CRE Mortgages? #1 Taxpayers, far ahead of #2 Banks
19. 15 MarShort-Term Treasury Market Walks Away from Rate-Cut Mania, Inflation Has Upper Hand
20. 14 MarWhat the PPI is Telling us: Disinflation in “Core Goods,” a Hefty Counterweight to Hot Services Inflation, May be Over
21. 14 MarHigher Forever? Even Yellen Starts to Get it: Higher Inflation & Higher Yields Are Here to Stay
22. 13 MarWhy I Started a Finance Website and other Stuff about Banks, Bailouts, the Fed, and Being Pissed Off
23. 12 MarBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, February: Inflation Saga far from Over, Core CPI & Core Services in Ominous 6-Month Trend
24. 11 MarFed’s QT Going Forward: the Treasury Maturity Schedule & Roll-off under Current QT Plan, and How a New QT Plan Might Fit
25. 10 MarThe Banks: “Unrealized Losses” in Q4, Securities Held by Banks, Bank Failures, and the Dropping Bank Count
26. 8 MarEmployment Trends in Manufacturing; Construction; Oil & Gas; Professional & Business Services; Information; Healthcare; Retail; Leisure & Hospitality; Finance; Transportation…
27. 8 MarFed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.43 Trillion from Peak, to $7.54 Trillion, Lowest since February 2021
28. 8 MarMore SPAC Humor: Astra Space Gets Bought by its Founders & Executives after Investors Got Almost Totally Wiped Out
29. 7 MarGasoline Demand Has a Long-Term Structural Problem in the US: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption
30. 6 MarColossal Churn in the Labor Market Ends: Voluntary Quits, Job Openings, Layoffs & Discharges, and Hires
31. 5 MarThere’s a “New Upside Risk” in Town: “Pent-up Exuberance” – Fed’s Bostic
32. 5 MarProduction & Exports of Crude Oil & Petroleum Products Soar to Record in 2023, SPR Gets Refilled (Slowly)
33. 4 MarInflation & Interest Rates; the Big Housing Arbitrage; Office CRE & Banks; Skid Marks of China’s RE Chaos in the US; Legacy Automakers’ EV Woes; and Other Thoughts
34. 4 MarUS Natural Gas Production, Exports of Natural Gas via LNG and Pipelines, All Soar to New Records in 2023, Price Collapses
35. 3 MarFed Discusses Balance Sheet “Normalization”: ON RRPs & MBS Go to Zero, Reserves Drop a Lot, Slower QT Reduces Risk of “Accidents,” SRF Calms Repo Market, Future QE without Increasing the Balance Sheet
36. 2 MarInflation Saga Far from Over: Services Inflation in Euro Area Just as Stubborn as in the US, Makes Very Disconcerting Moves

February 2024

1. 29 FebWorst Monthly Spike of “Core Services” PCE Inflation in 22 Years, and Not Just Housing: Powell’s Gonna Have Another Cow
2. 28 FebECB Balance Sheet QT: Down €2.0 Trillion from Peak, to €6.83 Trillion. The ECB Shed 48% of its Pandemic QE Assets
3. 28 FebThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Feb 2024 Update: 20-City Index Drops for 2nd Month from Double-Top. Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, San Diego
4. 27 FebU.S. Electricity Generation by Source in 2023: Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Hydro, Solar, Geothermal, Biomass, Petroleum
5. 26 FebPrices of New Houses v. Prices of Existing Houses: Why Sales of New Houses Hang in there as Sales of Existing Houses Plunge
6. 24 FebNvidia, the WTF Chart of the Year. Tesla also Had WTF Charts of the Year before Shares Plunged
7. 23 FebWe Have a Boom in Reverse Stock Splits to Keep the Ballooning Imploded Stocks Listed a While Longer: This Stuff is Just Funny
8. 23 FebThis Housing Market is Still Frozen
9. 22 FebJapan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index Hits New All-Time High after 34 Years, Thank You Hallelujah Bank of Japan Money Printing
10. 22 FebThe Fed Wants to Drive QT as Far as Possible Without Blowing Stuff Up, and it’s Working on a Plan: FOMC Minutes
11. 21 FebMortgage Rates Rise Back to 7%, Housing Market Re-Freezes, Buyers’ Strike Continues. Prices Are Just Too High
12. 20 FebWalmart and Total Ecommerce Sales in the US
13. 20 FebSome of the 49 Small Banks Heavily Exposed to Bad Multifamily CRE Loans May Topple, but their Size Limits Contagion: Fitch
14. 18 FebHigher for Longer Inflation & Interest Rates Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings? Waiting for the 2-Year Treasury Yield to Overshoot
15. 16 FebPPI Inflation Spikes in Services and Finished Core Goods, Very Disconcerting
16. 15 FebIt Sucks Being a Retailer in January and February. But Do Retail Sales Show Consumers Cut Back?
17. 14 FebThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: National Price Drops Further in January -18.3% from Peak. End of Easy Money
18. 13 FebBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, January: Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow when he Sees the Spike in “Core Services” Inflation
19. 13 FebCRE Loans Coming Due in 2024 Balloon by 41%, to $929 Billion, as Loans that Matured in 2023 Weren’t Paid Off but Extended
20. 12 FebEven Banks in Asia-Pacific (APAC) on the Hook for US Office CRE: Fitch
21. 10 FebThe $2 Trillion in Goods the US Exported in 2023: Led by Energy Products, Capital Goods, Pharmaceuticals, and Automotive
22. 9 FebMiles Driven Eke Out Record after Covid-Plunge: People Drive Less, but there Are More People
23. 9 FebOur Drunken Sailors’ Credit Card Balances, Burden, Delinquencies, and Available Credit
24. 8 FebUS Trade Deficit in 2023 Dropped 19%, as Goods Deficit with China Plunged 29%: Imports & Exports of Goods & Services
25. 8 FebHere Come the HELOCs: Mortgage Balances, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures
26. 7 FebUsed-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Give Up 55% of Pandemic Spike: Historic Plunge after Crazy Spike
27. 7 FebAuto Loan Balances, Subprime, Delinquencies, and Income: Who Are those Drunken Sailors?
28. 5 FebUS Office CRE Mess Is Spread Far and Wide across Investors & Banks Globally. US Banks Eat only a Portion of the Losses
29. 4 FebHow the Housing Market Split in Two, Doubts about the Taming of Inflation, and What’s Going on with New & Used Vehicles
30. 3 FebEyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US: Chip Makers on Forefront, but CHIPS Act Funds Not Even Released Yet
31. 2 FebGreat to Have a Good Job Market with Surging Wages, but Rate-Cut Mania Takes a Hit. And We Fret about Inflation Reheating
32. 2 FebFed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.34 Trillion from Peak, to $7.63 Trillion, Lowest since March 2021
33. 1 FebDespite Alphabet’s Layoffs at Google, Headcount Increased for Second Quarter in a Row. But the Huge Hiring Binge Is Over
34. 1 FebHere’s my Powell Cocktail, Not Quite in his Own Words

January 2024

1. 31 JanWow, Fed’s Statement Pushes Back against Rate-Cut Mania and End-of-QT Mania. Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT to Continue as Planned
2. 30 JanThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, January 2024 Update. Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Las Vegas, even San Diego
3. 30 JanTesla Closes in on Toyota in California: The Battle for #1. Total EV Sales +46% in 2023, EV Share Hits 21%
4. 30 JanTreasury Department Trying Very Hard to Push Down Yields with its Quarterly Refunding Announcements. So We Take a Look
5. 27 JanUS Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsens Further, Despite Solid Economic Growth, as Government Debt Balloons at a Scary Pace
6. 26 JanOn the Surface, PCE Inflation Is Encouraging, But Beneath it, Core Services Accelerated, Housing Stuck at 5.7% for Six Months
7. 26 JanPrices of New Houses Drop to 2-Year Low
8. 25 JanThe Year of the Recession that Didn’t Come: Our Drunken Sailors Partied & Spent, GDP Jumped
9. 25 Jan“Effective Immediately,” Fed Shuts Down Arbitrage Opportunity with the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)
10. 25 JanDid the $5-Billion Acquisition of Homebuilder MDC Holdings by Japan’s Sekisui House Mark the Top for Homebuilder Stocks after the Rate-Cut-Mania Rally?
11. 24 JanD.R. Horton Sheds Some Light on the Massive Costs of Mortgage Rate Buydowns as a Hedge Went Awry. Stock Tanks
12. 23 JanAnother Online Used-Car Dealer Bites the Dust: Vroom, 3.5 Years after Red-Hot IPO, Shuts Down as Ally Suspends Credit Line
13. 23 JanUS Movie Ticket Sales -46% in 2023 from 21 Years Ago: AMC and the Movie Theater Meltdown
14. 22 JanStatus of the Housing Bust in San Francisco (Lowest Price for any December since 2017 & 2019), Silicon Valley & the Bay Area
15. 21 JanWhen Consensual Hallucination Fades: iRobot Shares -91% from Peak Meme-Stock Mania
16. 19 JanAmid Collapsed Demand for Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Supply Highest for any December since 2018, New Listings Come out of the Woodwork
17. 19 JanFed’s Balance Sheet QT, Liabilities: RRPs -$1.78 trillion from Peak, to $590 Billion, but Reserves Rise to $3.6 Trillion as Liquidity Drains and Shifts
18. 18 JanResidential Construction in 2023: Multifamily Starts Fall from 38-Year High, Single-Family Fall for 2nd Year, Both Still Higher than pre-Covid
19. 17 JanOur Drunken Sailors Push Back Against Rate-Cut Mania
20. 16 JanInflation in Canada Refuses to Cooperate with Rate-Cut Bets
21. 15 JanThe Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Nationally -18% in December from Peak, Toronto -20%. Even in Calgary, House Prices Dropped. End of Easy Money
22. 14 JanOffice CRE Gets Even Messier: Aftermath of “The War for Space”
23. 12 JanFed Reports Operating Loss of $114 billion for 2023, as Interest Expense Blows Out
24. 11 JanBeneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, December: Not in the Mood to Just Go Away
25. 10 JanAre Hopes of Lower Mortgage Rates Freezing Up the Market Further? Buyers’ Strike Continues
26. 9 JanThe BTFP Will Expire in March: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr
27. 8 JanUsed-Car Wholesale Prices Have Given Up 53% of their Crazy Pandemic Price Spike: Historic Plunge Continued in December
28. 7 JanWhich Industries Lost Jobs, Which Gained Jobs, including Government Jobs: Longer-Term Employment Trends in Charts
29. 5 JanA Jobs Report of an Economy Plugging Along Just Fine Despite 5.5% Rates & Recession Fears. But Wage Growth Heats Up
30. 5 JanFed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.28 Trillion from Peak, to $7.66 Trillion, Lowest since March 2021. Banks Got an Arbitrage Opportunity when Yields Dropped
31. 4 JanUgly Charts of Auto Sales: GM, Toyota, Ford. Stellantis, oh my, Got Crushed by Hyundai-Kia’s Record Sales. Tesla Has Arrived
32. 4 JanJob Openings by Industry: From Construction at New Highs to Information where Openings Vanished
33. 3 JanMore Signs that Power in the Labor Market Has Shifted from Workers back to Employers
34. 3 JanThe Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $1 Trillion in 15 Weeks to $34 Trillion
35. 2 JanTesla’s Deliveries in 2023 Jump 38% YoY, Rivian’s 146%, while Ford & GM Are Tangled Up in Anti-EV Revolts by their Dealers
36. 2 JanStatus of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency and USD Exchange Rates: Long, Slow, Uneven Decline Continues
37. 1 JanStock Markets Years & Decades after Huge Bubbles Imploded: China, Hong Kong, Japan, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain