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Wolf Street
The stories behind business, finance, and money
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October 2026
- The 13 AI Giants, from Alphabet to Oracle, Sit on $1.13 Trillion in Cash. They Can Keep Spending on AI even if Markets Get Ugly
- Treasury I Bond “Fixed Rate” Raised to 1.40%, Highest since 2006, for 5.51% Annual Combined Rate for Next 6 Months
- Tech Makes a Mess as Wrinkles Start to Show. Markets Are Edgy Now, Aren’t They?
- Economy Is Running Hot on Strong Consumer Spending Growth & Massive AI Investment Boom
- THANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! If You Missed the Fall Reminder: Please Donate
- Fed Holds Rates, but with 2 Dissenters. A Hold before the Election Was Widely Expected. Dissenters Were Not
- The Growth of the Vacant Housing Stock in the US, Q3 2026
- What the “Housing Shortage” of New Single-Family Homes Looks Like: Ballooning Inventories, Falling Prices, So-So Sales
- Mega and Large Investors Pull Back from Housing Market, Become Net Sellers, Small Investors Continue to Pile In
- AI Changed the Internet, and WOLF STREET Needs You More than Ever: Please Donate, Fall 2026 Reminder
- Treasury Market Gets to Breathe: AI Companies Front-Loaded Debt Sales and, Loaded with Massive Cash to Spend, Step Back from the Bond Market
- AIpocalypse Not Now. Economy Is Running Hot: Lots of Growth, Lots of Inflation
- AI Found Catastrophic Vulnerabilities in PHP, Running on 70% of All Websites, incl. WOLF STREET. Then it Was Leaked
- The Unloved 20-Year Treasury Bond Sells at 5.47%, Highest Auction Yield since… (1986*)
- The Rug Is Getting Pulled Out from under Demand for Home Purchases in October
- Pending Home Sales Plunge to Record Low
- Single-Family & Multifamily Rents in the US and 22 Large US Metros: Amid Massive Divergence, Rents Are Re-Accelerating
- Long-Term Treasury Yields Buffeted by Hot Inflation and Cracks in AI Mania
- Oh Dear, Prices of Single-Family Homes Fell by 11% to 26% in 16 Bigger Markets Already
- Businesses Slammed by 6.3% PPI Inflation, Worst since 2022, Much Worse than Consumer-Facing Inflation
- When AI Spending Starts Slowing, Start Worrying
- Inflation Spreads across the Economy, Not Going Back into the Bottle: CPI, Core CPI, Core Services CPI Spike
- The Social Security COLA for 2027 Will Be Largest since 2023
- Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Scrape along Bottom of 4-Year Dumpster, Supply at 11-Year High. Condo Sales at Record Low, Supply at Record High
- The CEO’s of Broadcom and Intel Say the Quiet Part out Loud about AI and ROI
- US Government Sold $728 Billion of Treasuries this Week. Yields at the 3-Year, 10-Year, 30-Year Auctions Highest in 20+ Years, Demand Emerges. Short-Term Yields See Rate Hike
- Despite the AI Debt Pileup, Bond Market Still in La-La-Land, Investors Chasing Yield, Backed by Sky-High AI Stock Valuations
- Who Owns the Commercial Real Estate Debt
- Still QT plus Renewed Rate Hikes at the ECB despite Surging Bond Yields in the Euro Area
- Thoughts on the 10-Year Treasury Auction’s 5.30% Yield, Highest since 2000: It Created Demand, Bond Bloodbath Continued
- Mortgage Rates Jump to 7.5%, Home Buyers Pull Back Further, Demand Sags
- Though Pussyfooting Around on Rate Hikes, the Bank of Japan Pushes QT to Prop Up the Plunging Yen
- Home Sellers Grapple with Reality: Listing Prices Drop in Florida, California, Texas, and Suddenly even in New York
- Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Re-Spikes to 12.2%, Far Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. End of Extend-and-Pretend Looms
- Home Prices in the Largest 20 European Countries, from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that Fell Back to 2009
- A Wild Week for 10-Year & 30-Year Treasury Yields! Is there Blood in the Streets yet? Is it Good Enough for me to Nibble?
- Where Are the Jobs? Winners and Losers by Industry
- Private Sector Employers Created 46,000 Jobs, Governments Shed 17,000 Jobs
- Homeowners Are Clinging to their Below-4% Mortgages for Dear Life as Mortgage Rates Went over 7%
- AI Data Center Construction Goes Nuts, Power Plants Take Off, but Spending on Factories Is still Twice as Big as Data Centers
- The US Economy “Is Running Hot,” Lots of Consumer Spending Growth, Lots of Inflation. The Bond Market Sees it Too
September 2026
- Not Even the Massive Changes of Methodology Can Get PCE Inflation Back into the Bottle
- Turnover in the Labor Market Calms Down, after Chaotic Churn
- Anthropic Lost $42 Billion on $4.6 Billion in Revenues in 2025: Leaked IPO Prospectus
- Biggest Borrowers & Lenders in the $13.5-Trillion Repo Market: How the Hedge Fund “Basis Trade” & Money Market Funds Fit In
- Long-Term Treasury Yields Rise to 5.5%, Mortgage Rates to 7.5%, as Bond Market Grapples with a Complex Reality
- WHOOSH, Go Orders at US Manufacturers of “Core Capital Goods,” Fueled by the AI Infrastructure Boom
- What the Infamous “Housing Shortage” Looks Like: Inventories of New Single-Family Homes Balloon, Sales Crawl, Prices Sag
- Bond Bloodbath: 10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes 13 Basis Points to 5.10% after Hot PMIs with Inflation Written All Over
- $6.53 Diesel US Average, $8.25 in California, Worsens Already Hot Inflation, amid Record US Diesel Exports. Gasoline & Jet Fuel Prices also Spike
- Tech, Science, Social Media Jobs in San Francisco & Silicon Valley Plunge to 2019 Level: AI Magic-Money Boom Is Paper Thin
- Treasury Yields of 2 Years & 3 Years Spike toward 5%, but 10-Year Holds at 5%, Yield Curve Bulges: Some Thoughts on What’s Brewing
- Oh Dear, Condo Prices Dropped by 15% to 34% in 34 Bigger Markets. 6 Plunged Back to Where They’d Been 20 Years Ago
- Treasuries Have Become Badly Unappetizing for Foreign Central Banks & Governments
- Pending Home Sales Stuck Deep in Mud, Edge up from Down-Revised 2nd Lowest on Record, Supply Hits 10-Year+ High
- Fed Finally Hikes, Dot Plot Sees More Rate Hikes, New Rate-Hike Cycle Starts. Bond Market Breathes Small Sigh of Relief
- Despite All Moaning & Groaning, Americans Not in the Mood to Slow Down: Retail Sales Surge even without Gasoline
- Some Thoughts on the 5.42% Yield at the 20-Year Treasury Auction: Bond Market Bloodbath Continues
- Money-Market Funds & CDs: Americans Pile on Low-Risk Investments despite so-so Yields & Higher Inflation
- The 10-Year Treasury Yield Briefly Makes it over 5%. Last Time, 5% Instantly Opened the Floodgates of Demand
- Long-Term Treasury Yields Spike, 1- to 7-Year Yields Explode, Mortgage Rates Hit 7.12%, Bond Market Gets Spooked
- Inflation Not Going Back into the Bottle: CPI, Core CPI, and Core Services CPI Bounce Back
- Bond Market Has a Cow, Treasury Yields Spike across the Board, 10-Year Yield near 5%, 30-Year Yield at 5.37%
- Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Sag Further, Supply Spikes to Decade High. Condo Sales Drop to Data-Low, Supply Spikes to 14-Year High
- PPI Shows Surging Inflation Across Prices that Companies Pay Each Other. The Fed Should Stop Dilly-Dallying Around
- 10-Year to 30-Year Treasury Yields Jump after Bessent Reveals Bond Buybacks for Tomorrow’s Auction
- Why the Gasoline Price Spike Didn’t Derail Consumer Spending despite all Moaning & Groaning: Auto Dealers Got Caught Too
- By Dumping US Treasuries to Prop Up the Yen, Japan’s Foreign Currency Reserves Plunged by $95 Billion in August. But Don’t Cry for Japan. These Interventions Are Hugely Profitable
- The 10-Year Treasury Yield over 5%? Some Thoughts
- Where Are the Jobs? Winners and Losers by Industry
- Turns Out, the Labor Market is OK Despite All Moaning & Groaning about the Economy or Whatever
- The Spread between 10-Year Treasury Yield & 30-Year Mortgage Rate Has Been Stuck at 2 Percentage Points despite Fannie & Freddie MBS Buybacks: Some Thoughts
- 10-Year JGB Yield Hits 3.02%, 30-Year Hits 4.18%: as BOJ Tries to Halt Yen Collapse, Japan’s Bond Market Rises from YCC Grave
- AI Data Center Investment Mania Goes Exponential as Money Gets Thrown at Hurdles & Shortages
- What Warsh Referred to with “the Relatively Low Turnover in Today’s Labor Market…”
August 2026
- AI, Leverage out the Wazoo, Sky-High Asset Prices, Private Credit, Interconnectedness, and Government Debt Pose Risks to Global Financial System
- US Government Sold $797 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.73%, 30-Year Yield 5.22%
- Warsh Speaks, Treasury Yields Jump, 6-Month to 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike
- Quarterly Update on the Ugly Fiscal Condition of the US in Q2 2026
- Inflation Exacts its Pound of Flesh: How Americans Earned their Income from All Sources except Capital Gains
- How Americans Spent their Trillions of Inflation-Adjusted Dollars on Goods & Services and How that Changed since 2015
- Inflation Refuses to Go Back into the Bottle: Fed-Favored PCE Price Index
- Credit Card Delinquencies, Payment Volume, Balances, Debt-to-Income, Credit Limits in Q2 2026: Americans and their Plastic
- Inventory of New Single-Family Homes Jumps, Prices Drop to Lowest since 2021, Sales Sag
- That Was Quick: Bessent Issues Hocus-Pocus 3 via CNBC: May “Tap” Treasury General Account to Fund Treasury Buybacks
- The Bond Market Is Finally Functioning Again, after 14 Years of Financial Repression
- Long-Term Treasury Yields Surge, Wipe Out Effect of Bessent’s Hocus-Pocus Treasury Buybacks in 2 Days. Bond Market Not to Be Played With
- Oh Dear, Condo Prices Fell by 15% to 33% in 33 Bigger Markets, Some Below 2006 Levels, as Historic Condo Bubbles Deflate
- To Absorb $1 Trillion of New Treasuries in 3 Months, as the Debt Ballooned to $40 Trillion, Investors Demanded Higher Yields. Bessent Blows Fuse
- Bessent Doubles Yellen’s Hocus-Pocus Treasury Buybacks, Swapping Old Cheap Debt at a Discount for New Expensive Debt
- Oh Dear, Prices of Single-Family Homes Fell by 11% to 26% in 15 Bigger Cities Already
- Pending Home Sales Drop to 2nd Lowest on Record, Plunge to Record Low in the West, to Near-Record Low in the South
- Foreign Central Banks & Governments Dumped Treasuries, Led by China/Hong Kong and Japan to Raise USD for Yen Intervention
- Construction Inflation for Nonresidential Buildings Soars amid AI Investment Mania
- Prices of Mid-Tier Homes in 33 Big Expensive Cities in America: July 2026 Update
- US Government Sold $742 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 30-Year Treasury Auction Yield Highest since 2001, 10-Year Auction Yield Highest since 2007
- My Thoughts about those July Retail Sales
- The State of Americans’ Auto Debt
- The Fed Cuts its Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) to Zero, Starting August 14
- PPI Inflation Is in the Revisions? Prior Month Services PPI & Core PPI Massively Revised Higher Today
- Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q2 2026
- CPI Dragged Down by Energy, Hotels & Motels (Shelter), Auto Insurance, and Meat (Finally)
- Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Collections & Bankruptcies in Q2 2026
- Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Sink Deeper into Mud, Supply Jumps to 10-Year High, Condo Supply at 14-Year High
- Buy Low, Sell High: Intel Boosts its Massive Sale of Shares
- Intel Joins Race to Sell Shares at Sky-High Prices after Spike. Big Tech Figured it out, the Economy Benefits, Maybe Not Investors
- US Government Sold $638 Billion of Just T-Bills this Week, 10-Year Treasury Yield Dips after Big Kahuna Yen Intervention
- Self-Employed Workers (the “Gig Workers”), Part-Time Workers, and Multiple Jobholders: Some Thoughts
- The Private Sector Gains 30,000 jobs, but Local Governments Shed 57,000 Jobs. Supply of Labor Continues to Shrink
- Derivative Losses Squish Already Crushed UWM, the Largest Mortgage Lender in the US: SPACs just Keep on Giving
- One Thing Is Clear about the AI Boom: It’s Burning Huge Amounts of Cash, and Alphabet Needs More
- Another Hit to Demand in the Housing Market: Purchases by Foreign Buyers Have Plunged by 76% from Peak
- Labor Market Turnover Increased all Year, Bouncing Off Late 2025 Low. What that Means
- AI Data Center Construction Spending Goes Exponential (But in Business, Exponential Curves Can’t Last)
- Why the US-Japan Joint Intervention to Prop Up the Yen? Fear of Treasury Yields Blowing Out if Japan Becomes a Forced Seller
- Six Years into Bond Bear Market, 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.28%, Yield Curve Steepens, but Spreads Are still too Narrow
July 2026
- SPR Gets Drained to Dump Crude Oil on Global Markets: US Exports of Crude Oil & Petroleum Products Spike
- Inflation in the Overall Economy, Hitting Consumers, Businesses, and Governments, Was Really Bad in Q2, even without Energy
- Red-Hot Inflation & (Inflation-Adjusted) Strong Domestic Private-Sector Demand Marks Q2 GDP. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Dips to 121.5%
- Stocks Tank, Long-Term Treasury Yields Jump after Warsh Starts Talking
- Fed Holds Rates after “Good Family Fight” and 3 Dissenters, after Enormous Uncertainty in the Markets
- Growth of the Vacant Housing Stock in the US
- Korean KOSPI Crashes 10.8% Today, -34% in 25 Days, after 300% Spike, as Consensual Hallucination Fades
- How Massive AI Data Center Investment Pushes the Economy & Prices: See Durable Goods Orders
- Long-Term Treasury Yields Jump as Bloodied Bond Market Gets Edgier about Inflation & the Massive New Debt
- New Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further amid Declining Sales and once again Growing Inventory Glut
- Bond Market Just Flipped to “Rate Hike in July” as 2-Month Treasury Yield Spiked by 13 Basis Points
- AI May Not Cause Total Jobs Armageddon Afterall: Google Reports on How AI Is Being Used at Work
- Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.77%, Highest in a Year, Driven by Bond Market Fears of Inflation & the Ballooning Debt
- Single-Family & Multifamily Rents in Face of an Onslaught of New Supply & Fading Population Growth
- Oh Dear, Condo Prices Fell by 15% to 33% in 30 Bigger Cities Already. Some Dropped Back to 2006 Levels
- 30-Year Treasury Yield still 5.06%, 30-Year TIPS Yield Highest since 2010 Reintroduction, Yield Curve Prepped for Rate Hike
- Home Prices in 33 Big Expensive Cities in America: 25 Fell Year-over-Year in June, 2 Rose to New Highs
- Fuel for the 2nd Wave of Inflation: Import Prices of Manufactured Goods, Driven by Computers & Electronic Products
- Americans Splurge Online and at Vehicle Dealers, instead of Buying Homes? YOLO? Retail Sales without Gas Stations Jump for 5th Month
- Pending Home Sales Plunge to Near-Record Low in the Data, Hit Low in the West. Since then, Mortgage Rates Rose Further
- Producer Price Inflation beyond Energy: “Core” PPI Accelerates to 4.7%, Services PPI to 4.6%. Lots of Inflation Going on in Here
- Largest “Foreign” Holders of US Treasuries, including US Hedge Funds Engaged in the “Basis Trade” & Corporate America
- Gasoline Plunged in June and lots of Month-to-Month CPI Squiggles Happened to Drop Simultaneously, but that Won’t Last
- Fed Should Hike “in the Near Term” if CPI & PPI this Week Are “Hot”: Fed’s Waller. So at the July Meeting? Treasury Yields Jump
- US Government Sold $743 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 30-Year Yield at 5.06% on Inflation, Lax Fed, Supply Fears
- Gasoline Price Spike Triggered Massive Price Surge of Used EVs as Auto Dealers Bid them up at Auctions
- The US, Largest Crude Oil Producer in the World, Produced 42% More than Saudi Arabia and 37% More than Russia in 2025
- Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes Jumps to 10-Year High, Condo Supply to 14-Year High. Sales Slip Deeper into Deep Freeze. Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.49%
- AI Investment Mania Has Begun to Percolate through the Economy, and the Fed Has Begun to Fret about the Effects
- QT plus Rate Hikes: ECB Sheds €149 billion of QE Assets in Q2, -52% since mid-2022, Marks Gold Down by €160 Billion
- Consumer “Inflation Expectations” Throw the Fed another Curveball
- Home Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe in Q1 2026, from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that’s Back to 2010
- My Take on the Zero-Sum New-Vehicle Market in the US: Decades of Stagnation & Decline Interrupted by Steep Plunges
- Six-Month Treasury Yield Rises to 4%: Bond Market Tells the Fed to Get on with the Rate Hikes
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