The Curious Engineer

Wolf Street

2021–2023

1,452 posts

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2023 446

December 2023

  1. This Was a Funny Two Years in the Stock & Treasury Markets
  2. Mortgage Rates Dropped a Lot but Clearly Not to the Magic Level. Buyers’ Strike Continues. Issue Is Price
  3. ECB Balance Sheet QT: -€1.94 Trillion from Peak, down to €6.9 Trillion. Shed 47% of Pandemic QE Assets
  4. Cleaning Up the SPAC Mess after Consensual Hallucination: Bankruptcies, Imploded Stocks, and Lawsuits. Lots of Cleanup Left to Do
  5. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, December 2023 Update
  6. QE Giveth, QT Taketh Away: German Home Prices Tank as ECB’s Balance Sheet Drops by €1.85 Trillion
  7. Our Drunken Sailors Started the Holiday Binge, Fueled by Disposable Income that Outran Inflation by a Wide Margin
  8. Fly in the Ointment: Month-to-Month Rent Inflation Accelerated, Stuck at 6%+ Annualized since March
  9. Inflationary Aspects of Spiking Corporate Profits by Major Industry: Starting All Over Again, Good Lordy!
  10. Here Come the New Listings of Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Demand Remains at Collapsed Levels
  11. Are Foreign Holders Finally Bailing Out of the Incredibly Ballooning US National Debt?
  12. Residential Construction Gains Steam, Single-Family Starts Jump, Highest since Spring 2022, Multi-Family Rises from Ashes
  13. Fed Members Fan Out to Douse Raging Rate-Cut Fires
  14. The Shocking Price Increases of the Pickup Truck Oligopoly (Tesla Getting Ready to Mess Up Their Party?)
  15. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Toronto -19% from Peak, back to Sept. 2021. Hamilton Area -25%, Back to Feb. 2021. New High in Calgary
  16. Our Drunken Sailors Go Splurging Online, at Auto Dealers, and Massively at Bars & Restaurants (YOLO)
  17. What Powell Said About Continuing QT amid Rate Cuts, RRPs Going to Zero, Reserves Dropping to Magic Line in the Sand
  18. Fed Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees Three Rate Cuts in 2024, QT to Continue
  19. Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, November: Core Services Inflation Accelerates on Rents, Insurance, Healthcare
  20. It’s Like Ford, GM, FCA Got Run Over by a Tesla on Autopilot
  21. PE Firms & Distressed Debt Funds to Get Mall Landlord PREIT in Prepackaged Bankruptcy Filing #2
  22. Which Industries Gained Jobs, Which Lost Jobs: Longer-Term Employment Trends in Charts
  23. The Question is Not “When” but “Why” the Fed Would Cut Rates with a Labor Market this Strong and Wage Growth Accelerating
  24. Wage Growth Not Cooperating with Rosy Scenario of a Normalizing Labor Market
  25. Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.23 Trillion from Peak, -$129 billion in November, to $7.74 Trillion, Lowest since April 2021
  26. Tesla Model Y is #2 US Bestseller in 2023 through Q3, Behind Perennial #1 Ford F-150, and Ahead of Toyota RAV4
  27. Subprime Comes Home to Roost for Specialized Auto Dealers, Lenders & Investors: Car-Mart Was Next to Confess
  28. “We Need a Recession…” But it’s Just Not Happening
  29. Job Market Retightened in Some Industries, Loosened in Others: Layoffs & Discharges, Voluntary Quits, Job Openings, and Hires
  30. Are the Headlines about Factory Orders Messing with us Again?
  31. I Call them “Drunken Sailors,” But Are They? Can We Finally Get a Deal on a New or Used Vehicle? Is Inflation Moving in the Right Direction? And Other Stuff
  32. The Eyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US
  33. Oh Deary, No, Our Drunken Sailors Did Not Suddenly Sober Up, on the Contrary

November 2023

  1. Beneath the Skin of the PCE Price Index: Inflation in Services
  2. “Unrealized Losses” on Securities Held by Banks Jump by 22% to $684 Billion in Q3, Oh Lordy
  3. Interest Payments on the Ballooning Federal Debt vs. Tax Receipts & GDP: Not as Bad as in 1982-1997, but Getting There
  4. Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Nov. Update: From 2022 Highs, San Francisco -11%, Seattle -10%, Las Vegas -6%, Phoenix -6%, Portland -5%, Denver -5%, Dallas -5%, San Diego…
  5. Prices of New Houses Drop Further, -18% Year-over-Year, Sales Drop, High Inventories Rise Further, Supply Jumps
  6. Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs All Surged: Americans Figured it Out
  7. Lithium “Shortage” Bubble Implodes (Again), Price Collapsed 77% in a Year, as Demand and Production Both Surged
  8. Even Higher for Longer if Markets Keep Fighting Central Banks, ECB’s Wunsch Explains. The Fed Has Same Problem
  9. Home Sales Collapse, Prices Drop Further, Supply Jumps. People Are Finally on Buyers’ Strike
  10. Rents in Canada Explode. Services Inflation Heats Up
  11. “Leading Economic Index” Predicts Recession for Early 2024, after Having Predicted a Recession for Late 2022, Early 2023, Mid-2023, and Late 2023
  12. Our Wall Street Crybabies Want the Fed to Stop QT, they Wag the Drop in Overnight RRPs that’ll Blow up the Banks or Whatever
  13. THANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!! If You Missed it this Week, a Reminder: Please Donate
  14. The Collapse of EV-Charger SPACs: ChargePoint CEO Sacked, CFO out, Revenues Plunge, Losses Mount, Shares -96% from Peak. EVgo Not Far Behind
  15. Walmart: Consumers No Longer Willing to Pay Whatever. Prices of Goods Fall Broadly, as Inflation Shifted to Services
  16. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Prices Drop to where They’d Been 2 Years Ago, Sales Swoon, Supply Rises
  17. Surging “Mortgage Demand” and “Declining Spending,” Really? Let’s Have a Look at Reality
  18. Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation
  19. The Collapse of the Health Insurance CPI (How it Became Chickenshit)
  20. Yen Gyrates Lower as Japan Goes for Weak Yen, Higher Government Bond Yields, but Moves Must Be Orderly
  21. Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Fall 2023 Reminder
  22. Could it Be the Fed’s Mega-QE Created so Much Liquidity that Tightening Doesn’t Work until this Excess Gets Burned Up?
  23. Biggest IPO Stocks of 2023 Turn Ugly, Some Dropped over 40% from Peak Already
  24. Credit Cards, the Biggest Payment Method: Balances, Burden, Delinquencies, Available Credit: How Are our Drunken Sailors Holding Up?
  25. Overindebted Out-of-Cash Sleep Number Blames Consumers for Results of Years of Mismanagement. Shares Collapsed 92% from Peak Consensual Hallucination
  26. Auto Loan Balances, Interest Rates, Subprime Delinquencies, Cash Buyers, Tight Credit: How Are our Drunken Sailors Holding Up?
  27. Mortgage & HELOC Balances, Delinquencies, Foreclosures: How Are our Drunken Sailors Holding Up?
  28. WeWork Finally Files for Bankruptcy two Years after Going Public via SPAC. Office Landlords, CMBS Holders Face the Music, Stockholders Wiped Out
  29. Highest-Ever Treasury Short Positioning by Hedge Funds into Last Week Was “Accident Waiting to Happen,” Massive Short-Covering Ensued, Pushed Down Yields. “Basis Trade” at it Again
  30. U.S. Factory Construction in a Historic Spike, after Years of Going Nowhere (Amazing, but Can Something Like this Last?)
  31. Which Industries Lost Jobs, Which Gained Jobs? Longer-Term Employment Trends in Charts by Segment
  32. Manufacturing Jobs Hit by Strikes. Job Growth Still Decent. We Look at Part-Time Jobs (Plunged), Self-Employment, and Multiple Jobholders
  33. Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.1 Trillion from Peak, to $7.87 Trillion, Lowest since May 2021.
  34. Anything Unusual in the Drop of the 10-year Treasury Yield? Despite the Hype & Hoopla, it Hasn’t Done Anything Special
  35. “We’ll Probably Still Be Left with Ground to Cover to Get Back to Full Price Stability”: Powell at the FOMC Press Conference
  36. Tsunami of Treasury Issuance Will Shift from Longer-Term Debt to Short-Term T-Bills & 2-Year Notes amid Intense Navel-Gazing about Spiking 10-Year Yield.
  37. Another “Hawkish Hold” with Tightening Bias: Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Rate Hike Still on the Table. QT Continues

October 2023

  1. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, October Update: 10 of the 20 Metros Down from their Peaks Last Year, 6 Metros Set New Highs
  2. Marketable US Treasury Debt to Explode by $2.85 Trillion in the 10 Months from End of Debt Ceiling to March 31, 2024
  3. How High Could Long-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Go? Why’s there No “Housing Crash?” Consumers Finally Ready to Cut Spending? Tesla Mucks Up GM’s & Ford’s EV Strategy
  4. Fed’s QE Giveth, Fed’s QT Taketh Away: Russell 2000 Hits 3-Year Low, Nasdaq Back to Dec 2020, S&P 500 Back to Apr 2021
  5. Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow When He Sees the PCE Inflation in “Core Services,” Housing, and Non-Housing Core Services
  6. Our Drunken Sailors – Consumers, Governments, Businesses – Have Blast, GDP Spikes in Q3, Powell Seen Tearing out his Hair
  7. Prices of New Houses -15% from Peak on High Inventories. Sales Held Up with Lower Prices & Massive Mortgage-Rate Buydowns
  8. Alphabet Shows the Mega-Layoff Announcements Were Just That, Headcount Dropped Far Less and is Rising Again
  9. Teladoc’s Investors Came out of Consensual Hallucination and Smelled the Bad Breath?
  10. Cruise Driverless Vehicles in San Francisco Suspended by California DMV “Effective Immediately.” Waymo Can Continue to Operate Robotaxis
  11. Social Security Update: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit in Fiscal 2023
  12. Spectacle Ensues after 10-Year Treasury Yield Pierces 5%: Huge Demand Piles in, Yield Plunges 19 Basis Points in Hours
  13. Subprime Auto-Loan Delinquencies Hit Record, Prime Loans Are Pristine, after Easy Money Ends: The High-Risk High-Profit Business of Subprime Auto Lending
  14. Why Longer-Dated Treasury Yields Spiked. It’s Not Magic: Yield Solves All Demand Problems
  15. Home Prices Fall Further. Peak was June 2022. Demand Crashes, Price Cuts Jump, Supply & Days on Market Rise
  16. My Favorite Recession Indicator: No Recession in Sight Yet
  17. 30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes past 5%, 30-year mortgage rates hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge
  18. “Rent” Inflation in Canada Spikes to Highest since 1983, amid Spike in Population. Homeownership CPI Remains Red-Hot
  19. Our Drunken Sailors Now Guzzling Directly from Punch Bowl: Powell, You Looking? Splurging Online, at Restaurants & Auto Dealers. YOLO
  20. End of Free Money Plunges German Construction Industry into Crisis
  21. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Prices Drop Further as Sales Slow and New Listings Jump Further
  22. Acceleration of Inflation Continues, Core Services Inflation Spikes despite the Massive Health-Insurance Adjustment
  23. Social Security COLA for 2024 Will Be Meager 3.2%, Likely to Be Outrun by Inflation
  24. EV SPAC VinFast Collapses 92% in 31 Trading Days, $213 Billion in Fake Market Cap Evaporated in Hilarious Manner
  25. Our Experience with the Collapse of the Dollar’s Purchasing Power for Used Cars, Auto Insurance, Repair Costs, Rental Cars
  26. My Take on What QT Has Done to Stocks, Bonds, Commercial Real Estate (Lots of Bloodletting) & What it’ll Do Going Forward
  27. A Jobs Report You’d Expect from an Economy Plugging along Just Fine (What a Bummer?). Thing about Multiple Jobholders
  28. Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.0 Trillion from Peak, to $7.96 Trillion, Lowest since June 2021. In September Alone -$146 billion
  29. ECB Balance Sheet QT: -€1.77 Trillion from Peak, now down to €7.07 Trillion. Shed 43% of Pandemic QE Assets
  30. New Vehicle Sales +20% in Q3 YoY. Pent-Up Demand Comes Home to Roost. Our Drunken Sailors in No Mood for a Recession
  31. Despite the AI Hype, Office Markets in San Francisco & Silicon Valley Get Even Worse
  32. 20-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 5.13%. Yield Curve Gets Ready to Uninvert. Juicy Yields Tempt, but Bloodbath May Not Be Over
  33. What, the Tech & Social Media Layoff Queens Are Hiring? Trends in Job Openings, Hires, Layoffs & Discharges, Voluntary Quits
  34. Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Nightmare Levels, Malls Have Been a Nightmare for Years
  35. EV Demand Not Sagging or Whatever: Rivian Deliveries +136% YoY, Tesla +27% YoY despite Factory Downtime for Upgrades
  36. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Stocks, Bonds & CRE Face QT

September 2023

  1. Our Drunken Sailors Got Revised and Updated, but They’re Still Partying
  2. PCE Inflation Index Revised Higher Going Back 2 Years. “Core Services” PCE Price Index Was Much Hotter
  3. Another Recession Indicator Refuses to See a Recession: Corporate Profits without Federal Reserve Banks Hit Record
  4. S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Dips into Red Year-to-Date. Shows Entire Market Depends on 8 Giants, but They’re Swooning Too
  5. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, September Update: Spring Bounce Fades. 20-City Index -0.6% from Peak in 2022, Flat Year-over-Year
  6. Prices of New Houses Drop, Sales Drop, Supply Jumps
  7. It’s the Smart Money that Took a 77% Loss on Instacart, Not Retail Investors
  8. My “Wealth Disparity Monitor” of the Fed’s Money Printer Era, September 2023: Now There’s Inflation, QT, and Rate Hikes
  9. QE Giveth, QT Taketh Away: German Home Prices vs. ECB Balance Sheet
  10. Treasury Market Gets Memo with Subject Line: “Higher for Longer” but Someone Scribbled next to it, “Maybe Forever?”
  11. Demand for Existing Homes Falters Further. Price Cuts, Days on Market, New Listings Rise. Prices Languish below 2022 Peak
  12. “Carefully,” Dude: Powell at the Press Conference
  13. In Very “Hawkish Hold,” Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Sees One More Hike in 2023, Only Two Rate Cuts in 2024, to 5.25%. QT Continues
  14. Sign of Tight Labor Market, Strength of Ecommerce: Amazon to Hire 250,000 for Holidays, up from 150,000 Last Year, Boost Wages, Offer Sign-on Bonuses
  15. Worst “Rent” Inflation since 1983 & Red-Hot Homeownership CPI Fuel Canada’s CPI Surge. Bank of Canada in a Pickle of its Own Making
  16. Congrats, America 🥂We Made it! Government Debt Spikes past $33 Trillion: +$1.6 Trillion since Debt Ceiling, +$2.2 Trillion from Year Ago
  17. Fed’s Cumulative Operating Losses Exceed $100 Billion. Rate of Weekly Losses Begins to Slow as QT Drains RRPs and Reserves
  18. Fed’s Balance Sheet Liabilities: RRPs Plunge, Reserves Rise after Bank Panic, Currency in Circulation Dips after Pandemic Spike, TGA Gets Refilled
  19. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Price Drops Spread amid Slowing Sales, Rising Supply, Bank of Canada Tightening
  20. Our Drunken Sailors Splurged at Stores & Auto Dealers amid Lower Prices of Durable Goods, Partied at Eating & Drinking Places, and Paid an Arm and a Leg at Gas Stations
  21. The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated
  22. Tesla Price Cuts, Followed by other Automakers, Plus Surging Incentives, Hit Average Transaction Prices, after Toxic Spike
  23. Investment-Grade Corporate Giants Suddenly Sell Huge Amounts of Debt to Front-Run even Higher Long-Term Yields
  24. Mortgage-Rate Buydowns by Homebuilders Are Now All the Rage to Prop Up Sales, Lowering Effective House Prices in a Big Way, but Don’t Get Picked Up by House Price Data
  25. “Unrealized Losses” on Securities Held by Banks, Oh Dearie, the Whole Schmear: +8%, to $558 Billion
  26. Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$105 Billion in August, -$864 Billion from Peak, to $8.1 Trillion, Lowest since July 2021
  27. My Favorite Recession Indicator: The Next Recession Moves Further out of Sight
  28. Accelerating Inflation without Economic Growth: Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 5.0%, with Bias to Tighten Further. QT Continues
  29. Gasoline Prices Rise Year-over-Year for First Time since Feb 2022: CPI Inflation to Feel the Heat this Year
  30. Crude Oil WTI Jumps to Highest since November, as SPR Gets Refilled, Saudi Arabia & Russia Extend Production Cuts
  31. Construction Spending for Factories Soars, after Decades in the Doldrums
  32. How Have Mortgage Rates Hit Home Sales & Inventory? Where Will Inflation & Long-Term Rates Go? Have Credit Cards Propped up Consumers Spending?
  33. Labor Force Spikes, Wage Pressures Stuck at High Levels, Job Market Sorts Out the Distortions from the Pandemic
  34. Our Drunken Sailors Are Drinking Directly from the Punch Bowl: Powell, Did You See That?

August 2023

  1. “Core Services” Inflation Jumps to 2nd Worst since 1985, “Non-Housing Services” Are Red Hot. Fed’s Job Far from Done
  2. Curse of Easy Money: US Government Interest Payments v. Tax Receipts, Average Interest on Treasury Debt, & Debt to GDP
  3. After some Wavering, Corporate Bond Market Adjusts to Tightest Monetary Policies in Decades and Returns to La-La-Land
  4. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, August Update: 4th YoY Price Drop Overall, 10 of 20 Cities with YoY Drops. Month-to-Month, Selling Season Begins to Fade
  5. Massive Churn in the Labor Market Slows: Layoffs and Discharges, Voluntary Quits, Job Openings, and Hires
  6. AMC Wipes Out its Meme Stock Groupies, Shares Plunge to New All-Time Low
  7. Robotaxis in San Francisco (now Rideshare Drivers Fear for their Jobs). And my Thoughts on the “15-Minute City”
  8. EV Maker VinFast’s Market Cap Spikes to $159 Billion on 9th Day of Trading. This Stuff Would Be Hilarious if it Weren’t so Serious
  9. Powell Smacks Down Calls to Raise 2% Inflation Target: “2% Is and Will Remain our Inflation Target”
  10. Mortgage Rates Adjust to New Era, Jump to Highest since 2001. Long-Term Treasury Market Slowly Coming out of Denial
  11. Each of the Past 7 Julys Had the Lowest Inventory of Existing Homes on Record. Inventory Fell for 16 Years. One Big Reason: Technology
  12. Peloton Pukes, Stock Sallies to New Record Low, -97% from Peak
  13. Home Sales Plunge Further as Demand Vanished at these Prices. Even Cash Buyers Pull Back. Supply Keeps Rising
  14. Powell’s Inflation Nightmare: Job Seekers, incl. the Employed, Suddenly Expect Massively Higher Wages in Job Offers
  15. How Many Americans Have Interest-Bearing Credit-Card Debt?
  16. Defaulted Crossgates Mall CMBS Loans Sold at 69% Below 2012 Appraised Value of the Mall
  17. San Francisco House Prices Plunged Faster (-29%) in 16 Months of Housing Bust 2 than in the First 16 Months of Housing Bust 1
  18. Ten-Year Treasury Yield Hits 15-Year High, Market Wades out of Denial, Sees “Higher-for-Longer,” Tsunami of Issuance, QT
  19. UK Services Inflation Spikes to 40-Year High. A Global Phenomenon: All Heck Has Broken Loose in Services
  20. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: After a Rocking & Rolling BoC-Pause Season, the First Price Drops Reappear
  21. Drunken Sailors Partying Hard: Retail Sales Jump despite Cooling Inflation in Goods that Retailers Sell
  22. What Consumers Earn in Interest Income vs. What they Pay in Interest Expense
  23. Freight Recessions Crush Teetering Trucking Companies. This Time, Yellow. And the Freight Recession Continues
  24. Consumer Foreclosures, Bankruptcies, Delinquencies, and Collections: Checking on the Hangover of our Drunken Sailors
  25. Full Commercialization of Robotaxis Arrives in San Francisco
  26. End of “Disinflation” Honeymoon: CPI Accelerates YoY. Core Services CPI Accelerates MoM. Durable Goods Prices Normalize at Nosebleed Levels
  27. A Word about the Odious Ridiculous Massive Adjustments to Health Insurance CPI, which Now Collapsed to Jan 2019 Levels
  28. Mortgage Rates Jump to Holy-Moly 7.09%, FHA Rates to Highest in 20 Years, Pulling Rug Out from Under Home Sales in August
  29. The Collapse of the EV SPACs: Another One Goes Bankrupt, Others on the Verge
  30. Our Drunken Sailors Still Not in Trouble with their Credit Cards
  31. Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Sagged to Where They’d Been 2 Years Ago, But Are Still High. Where Will They Go? Automakers’ Finance Companies Placed their Bets
  32. Yellow Files for Bankruptcy and Liquidation. CEO Blames Teamsters in Stunning Detailed Announcement
  33. I’ll Just Crush the Stupid Stuff in the Social Media about Disability Claims. In Reality, Claims Dropped to 20-Year Low while People with a Disability Are Employed in Record Numbers
  34. Powell’s Nightmare: Wage Growth, after Signs of Losing Altitude, Re-Accelerates
  35. Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$91 Billion in July, -$759 Billion from Peak, Biggest Drop Ever, to $8.2 Trillion, Lowest since July 2021
  36. CRE Gets Messier: Office-CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes the Fastest Ever. Bank-Held Office Mortgages also Hit
  37. Here Comes the Tsunami of Longer-Term Treasury Notes & Bonds: Monthly Auction Sizes +60% by August Next Year
  38. Fitch Downgrades US Credit Rating on Fiscal Deterioration, Government Debt Burden, and Debt Ceiling Standoffs
  39. Layoffs and Discharges Fizzle, after Spurt in Early 2023
  40. US Government Debt Spikes by $1.2 trillion since Debt Ceiling, to $32.7 Trillion. Treasury to Add $1.5 Trillion in Debt by Year-End

July 2023

  1. Runaway Services Inflation in Euro Area Spikes to Record. Core CPI Stays Near Record. Energy-Price Plunge Pushes Down Overall CPI
  2. How Far Will Commercial Real Estate Values Have to Drop to Start Making Sense?
  3. Trucker Yellow Shuts Down, to File for Bankruptcy, 3 Years after $700-Million Government Bailout that Stank to High Heaven
  4. Fed Favored “Core” PCE Price Index Rises 4.1%, Least since Sept 2021, on Drop in Durable Goods. But Monthly Services Inflation Accelerates
  5. What Alphabet’s Layoffs, Current Headcount, and Unemployment Claims Tell us about the Erstwhile Tech Layoff Tsunami
  6. Businesses, Governments Join the Drunken Sailors. Consumers Still in Party-Mode: Tough to See a Slowdown in this Scenario
  7. Without Actually Pronouncing “6%,” Powell Said 6%. Inflation Not Vanquished in June. Even if the Fed Cuts Rates Next Year, QT Could Continue
  8. Fed Hikes by 25 Basis Points, to 5.5% Top of Range, Highest since 2001, More Rate Hikes on the Table. QT Continues
  9. Prices of New Houses Drop Below Prices of “Used” Houses for First Time since 2005. Sales Languish, Inventories Sky-High
  10. Younger People Drove the Increase in Homeownership Rates over the Past Few Years: Census
  11. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July Update: 3rd Year-over-Year Price Drop in a Row. Monthly Increases Are “Just Seasonal”: Robert Shiller
  12. Companies See “Sticky” Inflation in July in Services, as they Pass on Surging Input Costs, Including Higher Wages
  13. What the USD’s Decline as Global Reserve Currency Means for the US. What’s the Chance of a Recession? Will Interest Rates Hit Real Estate? What’s Going on with New & Used Vehicles?
  14. Entire Housing Market, Buyers and Sellers, May Have Shrunk by 20% to 25% because of the 3% Mortgages
  15. Housing Market Faces Reckoning: Price of Used Houses now the Same as Price of New Houses
  16. After 2 Months of Relentless “Core CPI Has Peaked” in Euroland, Services CPI Spikes to Record, Core CPI Worsens
  17. Time to Look at Foreign Demand for the Incredibly Ballooning US National Debt
  18. Our Drunken Sailors Are Still at it, Splurging Online, Buying Cars, Eating Out
  19. I Love how Tesla Wreaks Havoc: Ford Slashes Prices of Electric Pickup Trucks, after 3 Big-Fat Price Hikes. Let the Price Cutting Continue
  20. US Dollar’s Status as Global Reserve Currency on Slow Long-Term Decline, but Not Going Down in a Straight Line
  21. Honey, the Dollar’s Collapsing Again: USD against Yen, Euro, Peso, Other Currencies amid Inflation, Rate Hikes, and QT (or Lack Thereof)
  22. The Fed’s Liabilities: QT Pushed Down Reserves & RRPs by $865 Billion. TGA Gets Refilled. Currency in Circulation Hits Record
  23. Companies Now Hiring Faster than Laying Off: A Favorite Recession Indicator Has Now Backtracked for 3 Months
  24. Core Services CPI Cools to Still Red-Hot 6.2%, Core CPI to 4.8%. Plunge in Energy Prices Pulls Down Overall CPI to 3.0%. Food Prices Stabilize at Very High Levels
  25. Third Wave of Hotel CRE Defaults Has Started, Triggered by CMBS Maturities and Variable-Rate Mortgages
  26. End of Easy Money: Financial Conditions Loosen Again for Junk-Rated Companies. But Some that Long Teetered Finally Go Over the Bankruptcy Cliff
  27. Treasury Market Comes Out of Denial, Grapples with “Higher-for-Longer,” QT, Flood of New Issuance. Long-Term Yields Jump
  28. The Long View of Job Growth by Industry: Some Gained Jobs; at Others, Jobs Got Crushed
  29. Landing Still Cancelled: Labor Market Cruises through Updrafts and Air Pockets
  30. Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops $667 Billion fr. Peak to $8.3 Trillion, Below Aug 2021, as QT Continues, Bank Panic Support Unwinds
  31. Americans Still in No Mood for Recession: New Vehicle Sales Jump 17.5% in Q2 YoY as Inventories Normalize after Shortages
  32. ECB Balance Sheet Plunged by €1.6 Trillion (-18%) from Peak. Bond Roll-Off Speeds Up
  33. CRE Nightmare for CMBS Holders: Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Has Biggest Six-Month Spike Ever. It’s just the Beginning
  34. End of Easy Money: Unicorn Bubble Implodes, Normalcy Returns
  35. Construction Spending on US Manufacturing Plants Soars, to De-Globalize Supply Chains?
  36. US National Debt Spiked by $851 billion in One Month, to $32.3 Trillion. Flood of New Debt Coming in Q3 to Refill the TGA, Pay for Raging Deficits

June 2023

  1. Our Drunken Sailors Are in No Mood to Give Up Spending, and They Can Afford it
  2. Fed’s Favored Inflation Index, “Core PCE,” Stuck near 4.6% for Sixth Month, “Core Services” Stuck Near 38-Year High of 5.4%
  3. Waiting for the Promised Recession: Economic Growth even Stronger than Feared, Treasury Yields Spike
  4. Revenge of the Variable-Rate Commercial Debts
  5. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June Update: 2nd Overall YoY Price Drop since 2012. Biggest in Seattle, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, Portland, Dallas…
  6. As Prices of New Houses Drop, Sales Jump: Cut the Price and They Will Come.
  7. Longer-Term Treasury Yields to Rise amid Flood of Issuance while Fed, Foreign Buyers, US Banks Unload. Short-Term Yields already Surged
  8. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Revenge of Variable-Rate Commercial Debts
  9. Core CPI in Japan Worst since 1981. Food Inflation Worst since 1976. But Energy Prices Plunge
  10. How Can a Company Lose $3.3 Billion on $402 Million in Sales? Cannabis Companies Show How as Shares Get Wiped Out
  11. Home Prices Drop Year-over-Year by Most since 2011, as Investors Pull Back, amid Dismal Sales and Rising Supply
  12. Inflation Shocker in the UK: Core CPI Spikes to 30-Year High, Driven by Spike in Services, even as Motor Fuel Prices Plunge
  13. Not a Recession Scenario: Multifamily Construction Starts Spike to Highest since 1986, Single-Family Starts Bounce
  14. Why a “Pause” Points to Higher for Much Longer. CRE Blowups & Banks. CRE & the Housing Market. What’s the Deal with Inflation? And of course, New & Used Cars
  15. US National Debt Hits $32 Trillion, up $572 billion since Debt Ceiling Suspended. TGA Starts Refilling, Drains Liquidity from Markets
  16. The Four Monster Service Sectors whose Sales Dominate the US Economy
  17. Dropping Prices of Goods Hit Retail Sales (Inflation Shifted to Services, Which Retailers Don’t Sell). Charts by Retail Category
  18. Powell on the New Hawkishness in the Dot Plot and on Inflation: “We See that it Tells Us that We Need to Do More”
  19. In a Very “Hawkish Skip,” the Fed Keeps Rates at 5.25% Top of Range, But Sees Two More Rate Hikes this Year. QT Continues
  20. For 7 Months, “Core” CPI Hasn’t Improved at All, Stuck at 2.5x Fed Target. Services CPI Accelerates, Rents Not Playing Along, Used Vehicle CPI Spikes. But Energy Plunged
  21. Westfield Walks from Mall in San Francisco, after Walking from 2 Malls in Florida & others. Screws CMBS Holders, Said in 2021 it’ll Dump All Malls, but Suddenly Blames San Francisco?
  22. I’ve Had it with Stupid Stuff about Hotels in San Francisco: Park Hotels & Wall Street Screwed Shareholders, Bond-Fund Holders, and Pension Funds, but Blame San Francisco?
  23. Powell Caught in One Heck of a Squeeze: D, All of the Above is Also Possible
  24. 5% Interest Income from CDs, T-Bills, Money Markets Fueled Spending. Higher Borrowing Costs Cut Spending. And on Net?
  25. Commercial Real Estate Woes in the Stock Market: Office REITS
  26. “Generative AI” Wants to Write for WOLF STREET. A Gazillion Websites Got the Same Offer, Including WhiteHouse.gov?
  27. Global Steel Production in 2022 Fell Most since 2009, Unwound Stimulus Spike of 2021. China’s Production Fell for 2nd Year
  28. The End of Easy Money: Bankruptcy Filings Pile Up at Fastest Rate since 2010
  29. The Bank of Canada Un-Pauses, Hikes 25 Basis Points, Second Central Bank to Un-Pause on Resurging Inflation Fears
  30. US National Debt Spikes by $359 billion on 1st Day after Debt Ceiling Suspended. TGA Begins to Get Refilled, Draining Liquidity from Market
  31. Reserve Bank of Australia, First Central Bank to “Pause” then “Un-Pause,” Hikes Again, Warns of More Hikes. QT Continues
  32. What Are Older Office Towers Worth in the New Era? Second San Francisco Office Tower Sells for 70% Off Original Listing Price
  33. Why Jobs in Retail Are at 2007 Levels: It’s Structural. Jobs in Ecommerce & Services Boomed but Aren’t in “Retail Trade.” And Half of Retail Trade is Moribund
  34. Long View of Job Growth by Industry. And the “Multiple Jobholders” Question
  35. Landing Got Cancelled: Job Market Still at Cruising Altitude with Some Bumps
  36. Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunged by $348 Billion in the 10 Weeks since Peak Bank Crisis, and by $580 billion since QT Started
  37. Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Securities Drop for Second Quarter in a Row, -25% from Peak

May 2023

  1. That was Fast: Mortgage Rates Re-Spike to 7% Range as it Sinks in that the Fed Won’t Cut Rates “Anytime Soon,” Mortgage Applications Plunge to 1995 Levels. Even Investors Pull Out
  2. Still an Astonishing Labor Market: Very Tight or Getting Even Tighter in Some Sectors, Getting Less Tight in Others, Not Loose Anywhere, Despite the Rate Hikes
  3. What Are Manhattan’s Older Office Towers Worth? First Benchmark Prices in the New Era
  4. Update on US Government Holy-Moly Debt, Interest Expense, and Tax Receipts, and How they Stack Up Against GDP
  5. Americans’ Ability to Pay for Emergency Expenses or Three-Month Job Loss with Cash/Cash Equivalent, by Selling Assets, by Borrowing, or Not at All
  6. Despite Getting Whacked by Bank Turmoil, Layoff News, Credit Crunch, High Interest Rates, and Inflation, our Drunken Sailors Spent Even More, Even Adjusted for Inflation
  7. Fed’s Favored Core PCE Price Index Re-Accelerates, Driven by Services, Motor Vehicles: Inflation Stuck on High, Shifts from Item to Item
  8. Free-Money Party for Corporate Profits Turns into Hangover amid Rising Costs and Pressured Revenues
  9. Inflation a Stickier Problem than Markets Realize
  10. Inflation Dishes Out Another Nasty Surprise: All Heck Breaks Loose in UK Services CPI & Core CPI, with Scary Monthly Spikes & Multi-Decade Year-over-Year Highs
  11. Delinquencies in Subprime Auto-Loan-Backed Securities Have Second-Worst April Ever, Behind only Lockdown April: The Cost of Free Money
  12. Prices of New Houses Drop Further, Builders Stimulate Sales with Price Cuts, Pulling Demand from Previously Owned Homes
  13. Rent Inflation Re-Accelerates to Red-Hot, All Three Now Agree: Zillow Asking Rents, What Big Landlords Said, and Actual Rents Tracked by CPI
  14. Meta Fined “Unprecedented” $1.3 billion by EU = 17 Days of Pre-Tax Income, LOL
  15. Faster QT instead of More Rate Hikes to Fight Inflation? Higher Rates Can also Fuel Spending? Are Auto Loans Harder to Get? EVs and the Energy Sector; the Future of Office Towers…
  16. Six-Month Treasury Yield Begins to Price in One More Rate Hike
  17. Inflation Re-accelerates in Japan, Core CPI Spikes to 41-Year High, even as Energy Plunges. BOJ’s Ueda Vows to Let her Rip
  18. Home Sales Plunge, Supply Rises, Prices Drop Year-over-Year Most since 2012. Even Investors Pull Back
  19. THANK YOU for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!! If You Missed the Fun Last Week, a Reminder: Please Donate
  20. Slowdown in Residential Construction Centers on Single-Family Houses. Multifamily Flattens at Highest Level Since 1986
  21. I’m Surprised How Well Retail Sales Held Up despite Price Drops of Many Goods as Spending & Inflation Shifted to Services
  22. Household Debt as % of Disposable Income Fell to Good-Times Lows, on Much Higher Incomes Despite the OMG Headlines
  23. Households Far from “Tapped Out”: Credit Card Balances, Burden, Available Credit, Delinquencies & Collections
  24. Trucking Skids Down Other Side of Pandemic Boom. Freight Rates, Per-Mile Rates, Diesel Partially Unwind their Spikes
  25. Despite Fed Tightening and Bank Collapses, It’s Still an Astoundingly Loose Financial Situation in La-La-Land
  26. Fast QT, Fewer Rate Hikes? Bank of Canada Has Shed Nearly Half of Pandemic QE Assets. And QT Continues Despite “Pause” in Rate Hikes
  27. EVs Made the First Visible Dent into Gasoline Consumption
  28. The Fed’s Interest Rates Are still Fueling Inflation rather than Dousing it, and People Getting Used to this Inflation
  29. Core CPI Stuck at 5.5%-5.7% Range for Fifth Month, Now Higher than Overall CPI, as Used Car Prices Suddenly Spike Again
  30. What Are Older Office Towers Worth? Here’s the First Sale in San Francisco’s New Era of Office CRE
  31. Why I’m Skeptical of Powell’s Claim Red-Hot Rent CPI Will Just Vanish: Landlords Report the Opposite, even for April
  32. Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2023 Reminder
  33. Utter Chaos at the Short End of the Treasury Market and at the 28-Day Treasury Bill Auction: A Deep Dive
  34. The Landing Has Been Cancelled. Labor Market is Flying at High-ish Cruising Altitude
  35. Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunges by $230 Billion in 6 Weeks, Biggest such Plunge in 14 Years
  36. Despite Banking Turmoil, ECB Accelerates QT plus Hikes by 25 Basis Points. Balance Sheet Plunged by €1.12 Trillion so Far
  37. Powell Swats Down Rate Cut in 2023, Purposefully Leaves in Doubt a “Pause” for June Meeting
  38. Fed Hikes by 25 Basis Points, to 5.25% Top of Range. Says, “Extent to which Additional Policy Firming May be Appropriate,” instead of “Pause.” QT Continues
  39. With Mortgage Rates Stuck at 6.5%, Spring Selling Season Turns into Dud
  40. Companies Rebalance their Workforce after the Excesses: Still the Most Astonishing Labor Market
  41. Just in Time for ECB Rate-Hike Meeting: Eurozone Services Inflation Spikes to New Record. Overall Inflation Re-Accelerates
  42. Here’s the Great Deal JP Morgan Got on First Republic, according to JP Morgan’s Victory Lap in front of Investors
  43. First Republic Zombie Bank Dismembered, Pieces Handed to JP Morgan, Uninsured Depositors Bailed Out. Stockholders, some Bondholders Bailed in. Cost to FDIC Fund: $13 Billion

April 2023

  1. Remember the Lithium Shortage & Huge Price Spike? In the Four Months since, Lithium Collapsed 70% amid Talk of Lithium Glut
  2. This Inflation is Stuck, Churns from Product to Product: Core PCE Price Index Moves Sideways for 9 Months, Stubbornly High Near 5%. To Top it Off, February Was Revised Higher
  3. Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunges $171 Billion in Five Weeks since Peak Bank Bailout as QT Continues and Liquidity Support Cools
  4. Spring Selling Season Already Goes to Heck, Pending Home Sales Plunge. Banking Crisis to Blame?
  5. Consumers, Governments Spent like Drunken Sailors in Q1. Private Investment Plunge & Inventory Change Dogged GDP
  6. What Are We Going to Do with All these Unicorns?
  7. And if the Most Clamored-for Recession Ever Fails to Appear? How a Higher Inflation Target Would Hit Markets, Banks’ Exposure to CRE, Blowups of Subprime Auto Dealers-Lenders…
  8. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, April Update: Year-over-Year Price Drops Worsen in San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego, Portland, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Denver
  9. First Republic Discloses it’s a Zombie
  10. After Wasting $11.6 billion on Share Buybacks (“Return Value to Shareholders” LOL), Meme-Stock Pump-n-Dump Bed Bath & Beyond Goes Bankrupt, Will Liquidate
  11. I Love How Tesla Wreaks Havoc among Automakers with Massive Price Cuts, Huge Sales Growth, Even Huger Production Growth, and Overcapacity
  12. Amex Customers – Above-Average-Income Consumers – Are Spending like Drunken Sailors, incl. on Travel & Restaurants
  13. Short End of the Treasury Market Goes Totally Nuts. Doubts Creep in Over Debt Ceiling?
  14. Housing Market Takes Another Step Back: Home Prices Drop Year-over-Year for Second Month. Already Dismal Sales Fell
  15. But What If We Don’t Get a Recession in 2023? That Would Be a Bummer for Wall Street
  16. Second PE-Firm-Owned Subprime Auto Dealer & Lender Suddenly Shuts Down after its Subprime Auto-Loan Bonds Make a Huge Mess
  17. Another CRE Giant, Brookfield again, Defaults on Floating-Rate Office Mortgage. Again, CMBS Get this Mess, Not Banks
  18. The Surge in New Businesses Is One of the Big and Surprisingly Sticky Changes Coming out of the Pandemic Economy
  19. What Would Happen if the Fed Caves to 4%-5% Core PCE Inflation, Gives up on 2%, as some Folks are Clamoring For?
  20. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Spring Selling Season in a Housing Bust
  21. Some Astonishing Trends in Retail Sales beyond the Month-to-Month Data Noise
  22. Turning Point: CPI Used Vehicles Jumps for First Time since July “Not Seasonally Adjusted,” Tracks Wholesale Price Surge with Two-Month Lag
  23. CPI for Services Rages, Durable Goods Prices Rise Again after 6 Months of Declines. Food Inflation Backs Off, Energy Plunges
  24. Trouble in Multifamily CRE: Two Big Messes, and Investors Are on the Hook, not Banks
  25. Banks and Commercial Real Estate Debt, a Deep Dive: Investors and Government on the Hook for the Majority of CRE Debt
  26. Apple Mac Shipments Plunge 40% in Q1, Out-Plunging with Ease the Other Big PC Makers
  27. What Are Older Office Towers Worth When They Finally Sell amid Record Vacancy Rates? Not Much. Huge Losses Everywhere
  28. The Fed Isn’t Having a Lot of Luck Cooling this Labor Market
  29. Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunges by $101 Billion in Two Weeks, as QT Continues and Bank Liquidity Support Begins to Unwind
  30. Unemployment Insurance Claims Still at Good-Times Levels as Gone-Awry Seasonal Adjustments Get Fixed
  31. New Vehicle Sales in Q1 Jump 11.7%. Inventories Build, But Still Less than Half of 2019. Pent-up Demand at 6 Million Vehicles
  32. San Francisco Office Market Turns into Nightmare, in Two Easy Steps. Step 1: Hogging Office Space; Step 2: Working from Home
  33. This is Still the Most Astonishing Labor Market: Job Openings, Hiring, Voluntary Quits, Layoffs & Discharges
  34. The “Extraordinary Measures” that the Government Uses in the Debt-Ceiling Farce to Delay a Default
  35. Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency and Exchange Rates: Slow Long-Term Decline on Track

March 2023

  1. Consumers Got Whacked by Inflation, High Interest Rates, Layoff News, Asset Prices Falling from Lofty Peaks… And They’re Still Not Slowing Down
  2. Services Inflation Rages at Worst Rate since 1984, Keeps “Core PCE” (Fed’s Yardstick) in High Range. Energy & Goods Cool
  3. Population Drops Even More in California, San Francisco Bay Area, Coastal Southern California. San Francisco -8% from Peak! But 19 Inland Counties Grow
  4. How 3% Mortgages Altered the Housing Market for Years to Come: A Lot Smaller but More in Balance than it Seems, Hence Dropping Prices Despite Low Inventories
  5. Don’t Let the Headlines Fool You about a Tiny Month-to-Month Uptick in Pending Home Sales: Still -21% from a Year Ago, -25% from 2 & 3 Years Ago. Have a Look at the Chart
  6. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March Update: Biggest Monthly Price Drops Now in Las Vegas, San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Dallas, Denver
  7. Battle for Deposits: Tired of Getting Screwed by Banks, People Yank their Cash Out, Forcing Banks to Pay Higher Interest Rates. Treasury Yields Are a Mess Though
  8. FDIC Sells Much of Silicon Valley Bank to First-Citizens Bank. Total Cost of SVB Collapse to Deposit Insurance Fund: $20 Bn
  9. My Company Ended Up with Some Exposure to Silicon Valley Bank: I Warned about Monogamy’s Downside Years Ago
  10. Free Money Turned Brains to Mush, Now Some Banks Fail
  11. The Fed Should Be Fired as Bank Regulator. Powell’s Discussion of Silicon Valley Bank & Regulatory Failure Shows Why
  12. Update on the Fed’s Liquidity Support for Banks
  13. Layoffs in California Stall Employment Growth: San Francisco and Silicon Valley Hardest Hit
  14. Powell Explains the Fed’s New Regime: Rate Hikes & QT to Fight Inflation while Offering Liquidity to Banks to Keep them from Toppling
  15. Fed Hikes by 25 Basis Points, to 5.0% at Top of Range, Pencils in One More Rate Hike, No Rate Cut in 2023, QT Continues: New Regime of Tightening while Providing Liquidity for Banks
  16. Home Prices Drop Year-over-Year for First Time since Housing Bust 1. Sales Bounce from Deep-Dismal to just Dismal
  17. Total Wipeout of $17 billion in Credit Suisse AT1 CoCo Bonds Shocked Because No One Reads Clauses Anymore?
  18. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Free Money Turned Brains to Mush. Now Some Banks Fail
  19. After Huge Plunge, Treasury Yields Are Due for a Big Bounce on Monday. Here’s Why
  20. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: March Update on the Housing Bust
  21. Fed Loaned $160 Billion to Banks and $142 billion to FDIC. But QT-Related Roll-off Continued
  22. Defying Pivot-Mongers, ECB Hikes by 50 Basis Points, QT Continues, Explains Tools to Calm a Bank Panic while Fighting Inflation Simultaneously
  23. Retail Sales Dip a Tad in Feb after Huge Spike in Jan. Year-over-Year: +5.4% Despite Price Drops in Durable Goods & Gasoline
  24. First Republic Downgraded by S&P from Confidence-Inspiring-LOL “A-” Investment-Grade to BB+, One Itty-Bitty Notch into Junk. Shares, Bonds Re-plunge
  25. Services Inflation Rages at Four-Decade High: Fueled by Rents, Auto Insurance, Repairs, Airfares, Hotels, Pet Services, Food Services, Delivery
  26. Free Money = Toxic Money: First Republic Bank and Western Alliance Bank Make it into my Pantheon of Imploded Stocks
  27. Silicon Valley Bank’s Uninsured Depositors Bailed Out. Crypto Signature Bank Shut Down, All Depositors Bailed Out. Senior Execs Fired. All Shareholders, Some Bondholders Bailed In
  28. SVB Financial had Investment-Grade Credit Ratings (Moody’s, S&P) up to Collapse. Got Slashed in One Fell Swoop to Default
  29. RIP Silicon Valley Bank: Shut Down by California Regulator, Taken Over by FDIC, Shareholders Bailed In, Insured Depositors to Get their Cash by Monday
  30. Bank Stocks Got Wacked: Between a Rock and a Hard Place as Banks Run Out Free Money
  31. SVB Financial/Silicon Valley Bank Shares Collapse 55% Today, 84% from Consensual Hallucination Peak, as it Shores Up Balance Sheet & Liquidity to Face the Future
  32. Crypto Bank Silvergate to Shut Down and Liquidate, after FDIC Examiners Show up. Shares Collapse Entirely
  33. Layoffs & Discharges Jump amid Tech & Social Media Cutbacks. Overall Labor Market Still Tight with some Signs of Loosening
  34. ECB Balance Sheet Drops by €1 Trillion from Peak: QT Milestone
  35. Used-Vehicle Auction Prices Jump for Third Month, after Last Year’s Plunge. More Trouble Brewing for “Core” CPI
  36. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Drops Below Average for First Time since Aug. 2019, after Horrendous Spikes
  37. I Just Filled Out the Census Bureau Survey that Wolf Street Corp Got for the “2022 Economic Census”: Here’s what it was Like
  38. Housing Bust #2 Has Begun
  39. US Natural Gas Production Surges to Record in 2022, up 33% from 2017. LNG Exports Hit Record despite Freeport Terminal Shutdown
  40. Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $626 Billion from Peak, Cumulative Operating Loss Grows to $38 billion: Update on QT
  41. Inflation Dishes Up Another Nasty Surprise: Eurozone Core CPI without Energy Spikes to Record, Services CPI Spikes to Record
  42. Crypto Bank Silvergate Issues “Going Concern” Warning, Says Q4 Financials with $1 Billion Loss Were Fake, Loss Was Even Bigger, Frets about “Regulatory Capital Ratios”
  43. Recent Housing Hype & Hoopla Already Fizzled: Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Plunged to New 28-Year Low

February 2023

  1. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, February Update: Biggest Price Drops Now in Phoenix, Portland, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, San Diego
  2. U.S. Electricity Generation by Source in 2022: Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Hydro, Solar, Geothermal, Biomass, Petroleum
  3. Least Geeky Explanation Ever of Differences Between CPI and PCE Price Index which the Fed Uses as Yardstick
  4. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Housing Bust #2 Has Begun
  5. People Got Used to Higher Prices and Are Outspending even Raging Inflation. They Don’t Want this Thing to Land
  6. “Disinflation” Hoopla Sunk by Spiking Prices in January, Upward Revisions for Oct-Dec: Services PCE Price Index Worst since 1984, Goods Jump, “Core PCE” Red-Hot Again
  7. As Inflation Spikes to 41-Year High, Bank of Japan Promises to Let her Rip
  8. Commodities’ Wild Ride: Spikes, Plunges, Re-spikes: Lithium, Lumber, Coal, Wheat, Copper, Steel, Iron Ore, Soybeans, Coffee, Corn
  9. Spring Selling Season Starts Ominously: Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Plunge to Lowest since 1995
  10. Shopping Mall CMBS Remain Distressed
  11. Mortgage Rates Near 7% for Spring Selling Season: Prices of Existing Homes Fall 13% from Peak, on Lowest Sales since 2010
  12. How the CPI “Weights” Changed and Moved CPI: Meet the Surprises
  13. How Many People Were Actually Laid Off So Far in California? The Counties & Companies with the Biggest Layoffs
  14. Why the Fed Can Let the Housing Bust Rip: Mortgages, HELOCs, Delinquencies, Foreclosures, and Who’s on the Hook
  15. San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35% from Crazy Peak: Where’s Demand Supposed to Come From?
  16. Where Households Are on their Credit Card Balances, Credit Limits, Available Credit, Delinquencies, and Collections
  17. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: February Update on the Housing Bust
  18. Consumers in No Mood for a Landing: Retail Sales and Seasonal Adjustments
  19. Annual Services Inflation Rages at New Four-Decade High, Monthly Overall CPI Hottest since June
  20. Bond Market a Tad Antsy about Inflation Not Just Vanishing? One-Year Yield Nears 5%. Mortgage Rates Back at 6.5%
  21. CPI Just Got Revised Higher for October through December. The Revisions Take a Bite out of “Disinflation” Hoopla
  22. EV Sales Spiked in California. Share Hit 17%. ICE Vehicle Sales Plunged. First Uptick in Electricity Sales after 13 Years of Decline
  23. SNB Cuts Holdings of All its Top 50 US Stocks in Q4: Apple Chopped by 8% since Q2. MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, XOM, All
  24. Why the MBS Roll-off from Fed’s Balance Sheet Will Speed Up
  25. US Trade Deficit 2022: Imports, Exports of Goods and Services, by Product Category and Country
  26. Used-Vehicle Auction Prices Rise Again on Strong Retail Sales, after 2022 Plunge. Buyers’ Strike Over? “Core” Inflation at Risk
  27. After Spiking 92% Today, 350% in a Month, Bed Bath & Beyond Stock Collapses Afterhours on Share Offering That’ll Dilute the Bejesus out of the Meme-Stock Crowd
  28. Delayed Reaction? 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Jump, Mortgage Rates Spike 40 Basis Points in Two Days to 6.39%
  29. Cut the Price by 20% and They Will Come: Homebuilder Meritage Explains New Era after Sales Orders Collapse by 46%
  30. Remember the Hullaballoo in December about “BLS ‘Overstated’ Jobs Growth by 1.1 million: Philadelphia Fed?” Oh Boy, Results Are In
  31. Employment of “People with a Disability” Spiked to Record in Hot Labor Market. Applications for Disability Benefits Fell to 20-Year Low
  32. In “Information” Sector, Unemployment Rate Spikes, Jobs Fall for 2nd Month. Rest of Labor Market is Rocking & Rolling.
  33. Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $532 Billion from Peak, Cumulative Loss Reaches $27 billion: February Update on QT
  34. What is the Actual Housing Vacancy Rate, Reported by the Census Bureau? No, not 0.8% and not 5.8%
  35. What Powell Actually Said
  36. Job Openings Collapse in “Information” Sector Most since Dotcom Bust, But Jump in Vast Other Sectors, amid Overall Low Layoffs & Discharges, Strong Hiring, Still Massive Churn

January 2023

  1. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, January Update: Now Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego Plunge Fastest
  2. EV Competition Finally Produces Results: Ford Cuts Prices on Mustang Mach-E, after Tesla, Kia, Hyundai, Chevrolet, Nissan Cut Prices on their EVs
  3. Back-to-Back Market Smackdowns Coming from the Fed and ECB. Could Be a Hoot
  4. Consumer Spending on Services Keeps up with Raging Inflation in Services. Spending on Goods Falls as Prices Drop, Demand Fizzles after Pandemic Binge
  5. Services PCE Price Index Spikes, But Goods PCE Price Index Falls as Energy Prices Plunge: Core PCE Re-accelerates
  6. No Landing Yet: Consumers Refuse to Give Up, Government Spending Jumps, Inventories Rise toward Trend, Trade Deficit Less Horrible
  7. Bank of Canada: “We’re Pausing to Assess Whether We’ve Done Enough,” Hikes by 1/4% to 4.5%, QT Continues
  8. What’s Behind the Tech & Social Media Layoffs?
  9. “Wetsuit Shaming,” LOL: WOLF STREET Drags WSJ Through San Francisco Bay Mud for the Clickbait Flotsam it Published about Cold-Water Swimming
  10. How Many People Were Actually Laid Off So Far in San Francisco and Silicon Valley?
  11. Subprime Auto-Loan Delinquencies Rise to 2019 Levels: a Dive into Subprime Lending and Securitizations
  12. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: What’s Behind the Mass Layoffs in Tech & Social Media
  13. Prices of Existing Homes Fall 11% from Peak. Sales Hit Lockdown Low. Cash Buyers and Investors Pull Back Hard
  14. Inflation Spikes to 41-Year High in Japan. BOJ’s Stubborn & Reckless Kuroda Lets it Rip
  15. Residential Construction Splits: Multifamily Starts in 2022 Jump to Highest since 1980s Boom, Single-Family Starts Drop
  16. San Francisco Bay Area House Prices Plunge 30% from Crazy Peak: Housing Bust 2
  17. Falling Prices of Goods Push Down Retail Sales (as Inflation Shifted Massively to Services)
  18. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, January Update: Prices Plunged, Housing Bust Gets Real
  19. Natural Gas Futures in Europe Plunge 15% Today, Down 84% from Crazy Spike
  20. Hangover Time for Used-Vehicle Dealers. For Buyers, Patience Will Pay Off
  21. Can the Government Pay for its Spiking Interest Expenses? Time to Look at Interest Payments against Tax Receipts
  22. Despite Losses since September, the Fed Still Made a Profit for the Whole Year 2022, Remitted $76 billion to US Treasury Dept.
  23. Bank of England Sold All Bonds it Bought Last Fall amid Pension Crisis, First Big Central Bank to Sell Government Bonds Outright
  24. Services Inflation Spikes to 4-Decade High. CPI for Gasoline & Durable Goods Plunge
  25. Dip in Mortgage Rates Not Slowing Housing Bust 2: Mortgage Lenders Sing the Blues
  26. Coinbase CEO Still among those “Who Believe in Crypto,” the Religion, Cuts another 25% of Real-World Staff, Sees another Huge Loss
  27. Are Tech Layoffs in San Francisco and Silicon Valley the Latest Hit to Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART)?
  28. Wild Ride of US Auto Sales in 2022 below 1977. Charts for GM, Toyota, Ford, Stellantis, Hyundai-Kia, Honda, and Nissan oh Dear
  29. Euro Inflation without Energy Hits Record, Services CPI Hits Record. Subsidies, Drop in Energy Push Down Overall CPI
  30. My Thoughts about Wages: What Changed?
  31. Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $458 Billion from Peak: January Update on QT and the Fed’s Losses
  32. Crypto-Bank Silvergate Details its Own Implosion, Much of its Equity Capital Wiped Out. I’m Waiting for the FDIC to Show Up
  33. Layoffs beyond Hype: No, Layoffs.fyi Does Not Track Actual Layoffs in the US, but Media Stories of Plans of Global Layoffs. See Salesforce Today. Actual Layoffs & Discharges in the US Are Still Historically Low
  34. Fed, FDIC, & OCC Warn Banks about Contagion from Cryptos, with Laundry List of Sordid Stuff Inherent in the Crypto Scene
  35. US LNG Exports in 2022 Match Qatar, #1 in the World. US Natural Gas Price Plunges 11% Today, 40% in 2 Weeks
  36. Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Exchange Rates Hit Foreign Exchange Reserves

2022 503

December 2022

  1. 2022, Year of Face-Ripping Bear-Market Rallies that Got Crushed
  2. Truck Congestion at Worst Bottlenecks (MPH), Barge Rates on the Mississippi (WHOOSH), China-US Container Freight Rates
  3. Keeping an Eye on the Labor Market to See if the Fed’s Anti-Inflation Drug Started Working
  4. ECB’s Balance Sheet Plunges by €492 billion in One Week and by €850 Billion from Peak
  5. Natural Gas Futures in Europe Plunge 77% from Crazy Spike
  6. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, December Update: Now Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix Plunge Fastest. San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego Down Most from Peak
  7. The Most Astounding IPO Hype-and-Hoopla Show Ever Ends 2022 in Tears
  8. The Price of Easy Money Now Coming Due
  9. My Thoughts on Vehicle Repos, How Far the Fed May Go, our Housing Bust in San Francisco, and Crypto Bust v. Dotcom Bust
  10. Tesla Joins my Imploded Stocks, -70% from Peak: Object of Religious Veneration Turns into Automaker
  11. Consumer Spending on Services Blows Past Inflation, Fuels Services Inflation Further. Spending on Goods Fizzles
  12. PCE Price Index for Services Doesn’t Let Up. Goods Inflation Improves. Why Powell Is Frustrated with Inflation in Services
  13. How Strung-Out Are Households with their Debt Service & Financial Obligations as the Miracle of Free-Money Fades?
  14. Eleven Months After Going Public via SPAC, Texas-Based Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific Files for Bankruptcy
  15. Home Sales Melt Down Nationally to Depths of Housing Bust 1. Prices -10% in 5 Months. Cash Buyers, Investors Massively Pull Back
  16. Fed Tightening Reduces Horrendous Wealth Disparity that QE and Interest Rate Repression Have Wrought: Fed Data
  17. Bank of Japan, Last Holdout of “Free Money,” Begins to Tighten: Raises Cap of 10-Year Yield Peg, Paves Way for NIRP Exit
  18. San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Markets Puke Huge Price Drops, as Startups, Crypto, Tech, Social Media Make Total Mess
  19. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: The Price of Easy Money Now Coming Due
  20. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: December Update on a Housing Bust
  21. Ford Jacks Up Price of F-150 Lightning for 3rd Time since EV Incentives: What You Get for Subsidizing Products Already in Hot Demand & Short Supply
  22. Stocks Open Eyes, See Fed Pivot Hawkish; ECB Hike into Recession, Start QT; BoE Hike into Recession; SNB Hike, Sell Foreign Currency Assets
  23. Retail Sales Hit by Price Drops in Durable Goods, Gasoline. But Sales Rose where Prices Rose: Restaurants, Grocery & General Merchandise Stores
  24. Fed Pivots even More Hawkish, Sees Peak Rate above 5%, No Rate Cuts in 2023. Powell Brushes Off Raising Inflation Target
  25. Rising But Still Low New-Vehicle Inventory Tripped Up by Shift in Demand from Trucks (Now Lots of Supply) to Fuel-Efficient Cars (Very Little Supply)
  26. Glimmer of Hope that Rate Hikes & QT Pushed Down Inflation or Just Another CPI Head Fake? (The Fed Warned on Head Fakes)
  27. Car & Truck Trends: Faster, More Powerful, Bigger, Heavier, and More Fuel-Efficient
  28. Starting to Be Housing Bust 2 for Homebuilders & New Single-Family Houses
  29. How Big Are the Fed’s Losses and Where Can We Go See Them?
  30. When Will the Waves of Layoffs Loosen this Crazy Labor Market?
  31. Fate of “Free” Online Publishers: BuzzFeed’s Existential Crisis after its SPAC Merger
  32. New SPAC Stuff Keeps Imploding amid Shortage of “Consensual Hallucination,” as I Call it, But Now the Imploding is a Lot Faster
  33. $1,768 a Month, with $10,407 Down, 5% APR, on a Ford Pickup? Update on Q3 New-Vehicle Finance
  34. Drop in 10-Year Treasury Yield & Mortgage Rates Is Just Another Bear-Market Rally. Longer Uptrend in Yields Is Intact, with Higher Highs and Higher Lows
  35. Where Will Inflation & Interest Rates Go, How Far Can Housing Drop, Was FTX the Canary in the Crypto Mine, What Do I Really Think about EV Incentives (LOL) and New Vehicle Prices?
  36. The Jobs Report in Light of what Powell Said: The Fed Cannot Create Supply of Labor, But it Can Slow the Demand for Labor
  37. Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $381 Billion from Peak: December Update on QT
  38. In No Mood for Soft Landing, Americans Keep Splurging, Outspend Inflation, No Problem
  39. “Core Services” Inflation Gets Worse, “Core Goods” Inflation Backs Off: Yardstick for Fed’s Inflation Target, Core PCE, Nails What Powell Said Yesterday
  40. These Crazy Rallies on Hawkish Fed Plans Are Good Because Crashing Stocks & Seizing Credit Markets Would Cause the Fed to Wobble in its Inflation Crackdown

November 2022

  1. Layoffs, Quits, Job Openings, Hires, Wages: No “Landing” Yet for Job Market, Eager Employers Quickly Hire Laid-off Workers
  2. Euro Inflation without Energy Rages to New Record. Overall CPI Second Worst Ever
  3. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, November Update: Deflating Everywhere, Fastest in San Francisco & Seattle. Phoenix & Dallas Roll Over Too
  4. BlockFi, 8 Subsidiaries File for Bankruptcy: Smooth & Efficient Crypto Contagion Continues
  5. The Fed’s Liabilities under QT: November Update
  6. Consumer Bankruptcies, Foreclosures, Delinquencies, and Collections: Free Money Still Doing the Job
  7. I Asked What it Would Take to Get Gen Z Back to the Office: “Private Offices, Man. Microsoft Gives Them to Everybody”
  8. Massive Cancellations Make Mess of Already Low New-House Sales. Inventory Glut at Deep Housing Bust 1 Level. Buyer Traffic Plunges
  9. Lose $1.7 billion on $519 Million in Revenue? Bitcoin Miner SPAC Core Scientific Shows How. Bankrupt a Year after Going Public?
  10. Investor Purchases of Single-Family Houses Plunged 32% in Q3, Plummeting the Most in “Pandemic Boomtowns”
  11. I Agree: Don’t Regulate Crypto, Let it Burn. Making Good Progress on its Own
  12. Thank You for Your Awesome Support of WOLF STREET!! If You Missed the Fun a Week ago, a Reminder: Please Donate
  13. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, November Update: Fastest 5-Month Plunge on Record
  14. Inflation Makes Mess in Japan, Batters Yen. BOJ’s Kuroda Clings by His Last Fingernail to “Transitory”
  15. Home Sales Plunge, Investors Pull Back Too, Prices Drop 8.4% in 4 Months, Active Listings & Price Cuts Rise Further
  16. Single-Family Construction Starts Plunge as Homebuilders Drown in Inventory. But Multifamily Construction at 36-Year High
  17. Era of Stimulus-Distorted Consumer Credit Ends: Auto Loans, Delinquencies, Prime & Subprime
  18. No Landing Yet, Soft or Otherwise? Retail Sales Hit it out of the Ballpark, But Not All Retailers: By Retailer Category
  19. Where’s the Contagion from the Crypto Implosion?
  20. Credit Card Balances, Burden, Delinquencies & Collections in Q3: Consumers Still in Great Shape with their Cards
  21. Five-Digit Layoffs Are Here, the Big Ones We’ve Been Waiting for. But the Laid-Off People Are Scattered around the Globe
  22. Inflation Expectations Throw a Curveball
  23. Dear Readers, Please Donate to Support WOLF STREET: Fall 2022 Reminder
  24. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Where’s the Contagion from the Crypto Implosion?
  25. The Swiss National Bank Began Unloading its Biggest US Stock Holdings, incl. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta
  26. Services Inflation Spiked to Second Highest in 4 Decades, Would Have Spiked to Highest, If Not Slowed by Biggest-Ever Mega-Adjustment of Health Insurance CPI
  27. “The Math No Longer Works”: Sky-High Mortgage Rates Pop Housing Bubble
  28. Cryptos Plunge, Contagion Sweeps Across DeFi: Trying to Go to Heaven Together, End Up Going to Heck Together?
  29. What a Day for Imploded Stocks: Affirm, Upstart, CarGurus, Lyft, MicroStrategy, Robinhood, Coinbase, and a Crypto Meltdown
  30. Shares of AI-Powered Home-Flipper Disruptor-SPAC Opendoor Get Annihilated
  31. Status of the Social Security Trust Fund, Income and Outgo: Fiscal 2022
  32. Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Plunged, but Not Retail Prices; They’re Still in the Ridiculous Zone
  33. Imploded Stocks of the Day: Carvana, Twilio, Atlassian, Cloudflare
  34. The Housing Bubble Popped, and the Fed Can Let it Rip
  35. Has this Contorted Labor Market Forced Companies to Change their Thinking about Layoffs?
  36. Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $289 Billion from Peak: November Update on Quantitative Tightening
  37. Bank of England Hikes 75 Basis Points, Most since 1989, to 3%. Hopes Raging Inflation Will “Fall Sharply” in mid-2023. If Not, “Will Respond Forcefully”
  38. Fed Hikes 75 Bpts to 3.75-4.0%, Pivots Even More Hawkish: “Very Premature to Be Thinking about or Talking about Pausing.” Markets Tank
  39. Wages Soar by 7.7%. But Job Hoppers Boost their Pay by 15.2%, Leveraging this Historically Tight Labor Market
  40. Bank of England Sold Bonds Outright Today to Speed up QT, Will Sell More at Regular Auctions: First Major Central Bank to Sell Bonds Outright
  41. Job Market Refuses to Soften, Fed Gets More Stuffing for Rate Hikes: Layoffs, Quits, Job Openings, Hires
  42. Popping Housing Bubble in Australia “Remains Orderly.” Prices Down Nationally from Year Ago. Sydney -8.6% Year-over-Year

October 2022

  1. Horror-Show Inflation in Euro Countries: Overall 10.7%, Germany 11.6%, Without Energy 6.9%
  2. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Housing Bubble Pops, and the Fed Can Let it Rip
  3. Advertise on a Competitor’s Social Media Platform? Um, that Would Be a Hoot… GM “Paused” Ads on Musk’s Twitter
  4. Last, Most Important Inflation Measure before the Fed’s Meeting Next Week, “Core PCE,” Worsened for 2nd Month in a Row
  5. Amazon Makes Big Mess Afterhours. Intel Reports Fiasco but Mass-Layoffs Boost Battered Stock. Apple Hangs on Amid “Challenging and Volatile Macroeconomic Backdrop”
  6. GDP Looked Good, No “Landing” (Soft or Otherwise), But Wasn’t as Good as it Looked due to Reversal of Q1 “Freak Event.” Consumers Still Refused to Throw in the Towel
  7. ECB Starts QT via Loans rather than Bonds, Hikes by 75 bpts, to 1.5%, More Hikes to Come
  8. Meta Makes Huge Mess Afterhours, Enters my “Imploded Stocks,” after Tech & Social-Media Already Messed up the Day
  9. “No Easy Outs to Restoring Price Stability”: Bank of Canada Hikes by 50 bpts to 3.75%, More Hikes to Come, QT to Continue, as “Unsustainable” Home Prices Plunge, GDP “Stalls”
  10. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Biggest Price Drops since Housing Bust 1. Record Plunge in Seattle (-3.9%), Near-Record in San Francisco (-4.3%) & Denver. Drops Spread Across the US
  11. Mortgage Bankers Predict Mortgage Rates to Drop to 5.4% by End of 2023. A Year Ago, They Forecast 4% by Now, but Now We’re at 7%. Wishful Thinking by Crushed Mortgage Lenders?
  12. New-Vehicle Inventory Improves, Still Woefully Low. But Full-size Trucks Pile up. Many Fuel-Efficient Models out of Stock
  13. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, October Update: Prices Plunge at Fastest Pace on Record
  14. Margin Debt Is Still Far from Calling a Bottom for Stocks
  15. Snap Makes Mess Afterhours, Splatters Again on Meta, Pinterest, Alphabet: Online Advertising in the Holiday Quarter, Oh Deary
  16. Housing Bubble Woes: Home Sales Plunge, Prices Drop 7% in 3 Months, Price Reductions Surge. Mortgage Rates Spike
  17. The 5x Spike & Now Implosion of Generac’s Stock Shows What Went Horribly Wrong in the Markets since Feb. 2020
  18. Boom v. Bust: Construction Starts of Multifamily Buildings v. Single-Family Houses
  19. Return of the Bond Vigilantes Sent Shockwaves Around the Globe
  20. Housing Bubble Woes: Plunge in Buyer Traffic & Homebuilder Confidence a Lot Faster than During Housing Bust 1
  21. As Autonomous-Driving SPACs Implode, Intel Slashes Mobileye IPO Valuation Target by 60%
  22. The 1001 Imploded Stocks of 2022 (Down 80% or More)… So Far
  23. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Return of the Bond Vigilantes Sends Shockwaves Around the Globe
  24. Tesla Shares Get Halved
  25. Retail Sales & Raging Inflation
  26. Services Now Drive Inflation: Worst in 40 Years Services CPI & “Core CPI” Show Inflation Is Entrenched in Broad Economy. Some Goods Prices Fall, Gasoline Plunges
  27. Social Security COLA for 2023 Biggest since 1981, Might Finally Outpace Inflation, Unless Inflation Dishes Up More Surprises
  28. The WOLF STREET Real-World New-Vehicle Price Index, F-150 XLT & Camry LE, 2023 Models: Ford’s Truck Price Shocker
  29. Something Big Has Already Broken: Price Stability
  30. Bank of England Bought Only Small Amounts of Bonds even Today, Warns Pension Funds They Have “Only Three Days Left” to Unwind Derivatives with BOE Support
  31. There’s Lots of “Liquidity” in the Treasury Market, but at Higher Yields, in this Raging Inflation
  32. Cutting-Edge US Semiconductor Makers Crushed by One Thing after Another in 2022 after Mind-Boggling Bubble in 2020 & 2021
  33. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Something Big Has Already Broken: Price Stability
  34. Shock & Awe Balance Sheet Reduction at the Bank of Japan: Assets Drop 7.3% from Peak
  35. Most Contorted Job Market Ever Struggling to Revert to Normalcy?
  36. Fed’s QT: Total Assets Drop by $206 Billion from Peak
  37. Bank of England Explains Why Intervention Wasn’t Pivot to QE, But Effective Effort to Halt Death Spiral Triggered by Tax-Cut Panic in Gilt Market: Bond Purchases Near Zero this Week
  38. Housing Bubble Woes: Mortgage Demand Plunges, Rates Near 7%, Spread Between Mortgage Rate & 10-Year Treasury Yield Blows Out Most since Dec. 2008 and 1986
  39. New Vehicle Sales Down 19% in Q3 v. Q3 2019, Due to Shortages: I Estimate the Piggybank of Unmet Demand for a Recession
  40. Bank of England Bought No Bonds Today, after Buying only £22 Million on Monday, instead of £5 Billion per Day
  41. Layoffs, Quits, Job Openings, Hires: Slight Softening of Contorted Labor Market, Still Massive Churn & Job Hopping
  42. Office REITs Massacred as the Future these Office Markets Were Built for Got Cancelled by Working-from-Home
  43. Construction Spending Ticks up, Non-Residential Hits Record, Residential Stalls after Blistering Boom
  44. Big Tech Stocks Plunge with Spooky Parallels to Dotcom Bust: -25% to -66% from Highs so Far
  45. UK Credit Market & Pension Panic, How Far Will the Fed Go, Upheaval in New Car & Truck Demand, Buyers’ Strike for Used Vehicles, and Housing Downturns in the US & Canada
  46. Flush with Pandemic Cash & Tax Revenues, States, Cities Throw Money Around. Congress too. Is it a Surprise Consumers Outspent this Raging Inflation?

September 2022

  1. Fed’s Favored Inflation Index Says: Underlying Inflation Just Isn’t Slowing Down at All
  2. Eurozone Inflation Spikes to 10%, Ex Energy 6.4%. Germany 10.9%. From Temporary Inflation mid-2021 to Runaway Inflation
  3. Amazon to Close 4 of its 5 US Call Centers, Shifts to Work-from-Home, after Closing 44 Warehouses, Halting Construction on 7 Office Towers
  4. Laid-Off Workers Hired Quickly by Other Companies: This Labor Market Is Astonishingly Strong, Fuel for Fed Inflation Worries
  5. SPAC Bamboozle Keeps on Giving: Stock Shredded, Low on Cash, Layoffs Underway, Volta Goes after Government Subsidies for EV Charging Stations
  6. UK Chaos Economics: Fretting over “Financial Stability” & “Contagion” after Gilts Plunged, Bank of England Buys Bonds
  7. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops Spread across US. Steepest Monthly Plunges since Housing Bust 1 in San Francisco -3.5%, Seattle -3.1%, San Diego -2.5%
  8. My “Wealth Disparity Monitor”: QT, Rate Hikes, Dropping Stocks & Bonds Reduce Outrageous US Wealth Disparity
  9. UK Bond Yields Do Monster Spike, Pound Plunges as Bond Vigilantes Rise from Graves, Go after Government’s Fiscal Recklessness
  10. The Bear-Market Rally in Stocks, Bonds, Mortgages Wiped Out: Why This Nails the Parallel to the Dotcom Bust
  11. To Compete with Spiking Treasury Yields, Banks Now Offer 4%+ on “Brokered” CDs of 6 Months to 5 Years
  12. This Inflation Will Be Tough to Get under Control
  13. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, September Update: House Prices Plunge
  14. Powell’s Whatever-it-Takes Moment: Policy “WILL Be Enough to Restore Price Stability.” Fed Hikes by 75 Basis Points. Shocker, Sees 4.4% by End of 2022
  15. Housing Bubble Woes: Home Prices Drop 3.5%, Steepest Monthly Drop since Jan. 2016. Sales, already at Lockdown Levels, Drop Further. Active Listings Rise Further
  16. Even in Japan, Inflation Begins to Rage after 23 Years of True Price Stability
  17. New Vehicle Inventory Still Near Record Lows, with Twist: Fuel-Efficient Cars Vanish, Full-Size Pickups Pile Up. Ram, Dodge, Jeep Overstocked
  18. Housing Bubble Woes: Home Builders Cut Prices, Pile on Incentives, amid Plunging Traffic of Buyers, Spiking Cancellations, Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates
  19. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: This Inflation Will Be Tough to Get under Control
  20. California Housing Market: Dismal Sales, Prices Sag in San Francisco (-20% fr. peak), Silicon Valley, San Diego, Orange County…
  21. The Fed Stopped Buying MBS Today.
  22. Retail Sales Doing Just Fine, Thanks Shoppers. But Sales at Gas Stations Sag on Plunge in Gasoline Prices
  23. Gasoline Demand Destruction Accelerates Despite Plunge in Prices: Consumption Drops to August 1997 Level
  24. To Halt Yen’s Plunge, Japan Gets Ready to Sell Foreign Exchange Reserves Instead of Hiking Interest Rates. Won’t Work for Long. Markets Can Win this Battle
  25. The Day Wall Street’s Narrative of “Inflation is Over” Fell Apart: A Sea of Red
  26. Services Inflation Spikes, Core CPI Jumps, Food Inflation Worst since 1979, Durable Goods Rise, but Gasoline & Airfares Plunge
  27. Natural Gas Futures in Europe Plunge 44% from Peak
  28. Buyers’ Strike Takes Effect: Used-Car Auction Prices Plunge, but Still Sky-High, up Nearly 50% from Three Years Ago
  29. What Americans Are Driving: Vehicles in Operation, Used-Vehicle Exports, EVs, and Stuff for Engine Geeks
  30. Boots-on-the-Ground Observations by 21 Home Builders about the Housing Market They’re Facing
  31. ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation Is Going on in Here, Hikes by 75 Basis Points, after 50-Basis-Point Hike in July
  32. Mortgage Lender Woes
  33. Bank of Canada Hikes by 75 Basis Points, Brushes Off Housing Woes, Dip in CPI, Slowing Growth
  34. The Holy-Moly 6.25% Mortgage is Back, Treasury Yields Spike, Summer Bear-Market Rally Unwinds
  35. EV SPAC Faraday Future Breaks the Buck, 14 Months after Going Public. Consensual Hallucination Was so Bad it Was Funny
  36. By How Much Can the Fed Reduce its Assets with QT? Fed’s Liabilities set a Floor
  37. Australia Housing Bust Spreads, Accelerates. Prices in Sydney & Melbourne Fall Below Year-Ago Levels, Sales Plunge
  38. Stock Selloff, Collapse of Cryptos, Meme Stocks & SPAC/IPO Zombies Bringing Day Traders Back into the Labor Force?
  39. Fed’s QT: Total Assets Drop by $139 Billion from Peak
  40. Formerly Sacred Now Rotting Silicon Valley Dictum of “Growth at All Costs” Crushes Okta: Shares Collapse 80% from Peak

August 2022

  1. Runaway Inflation in the Eurozone, which Kicked Off in mid-2021, Sets New Record, Wakes Up even Ridiculously Reckless ECB
  2. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, August Update: First Price Drops Appear, All in the West
  3. This Labor Market Still Defies any Slow Down: Layoffs, Quits, Job Openings, and Hires
  4. Deep-Subprime & Subprime Auto Loans Miraculously Cleaned up by Credit-Score Inflation
  5. QT at the Bank of Canada: Assets Down 24% from Peak. Spiraling Losses on Bonds, to Be Paid for by Canadians
  6. Updated Guidelines for Commenting on WOLF STREET
  7. Markets Tank While I’m Waiting for the “Powell-Was-Dovish” Tightening-Deniers to Fan Out and Clean Up this Mess
  8. Consumer Income & Spending Still Out-Hobble Inflation, Despite Everything
  9. Recession Watch: This Labor Market is Not There Yet, Nor Are Consumers
  10. As Used-Car Prices Have Hit Wall amid Signs of Buyers’ Strike, Used EV Prices Spike amid Huge Demand and Little Supply
  11. Sales of New Houses Collapse (in the West by 50%!) Inventories & Supply Spike to High Heaven, Worst since Peak of Housing Bust 1
  12. Bonds of Bed Bath & Beyond Collapse on Bankruptcy Fears as Suppliers with Unpaid Bills Halt Shipments
  13. US Natural Gas Spikes 81% in 7 Weeks, Hits New 14-Year High, Unwinds Plunge in June and July
  14. Inventory Shortages & Gluts, by Retailer Segment: Where they Are and Why
  15. California Housing Market Pukes: As Sales Collapse (San Diego County -41%), Prices Begin to Swoon
  16. “Housing Recession”: Sales Plunge to Lockdown Levels, Active Listings Surge, Prices Begin to Dip as Price Reductions Spike, Investors Pull Back
  17. My Vacant Lot in San Diego County
  18. Craigslist Cuts Asking Price of Class A Office Building it Owns in San Francisco by 40%. The Building is 78% Vacant
  19. Ecommerce Sales Spike to Record. Retail Sales ex Gas Stations, ex Auto Dealers Jump to Record. Plunging Price of Gasoline & Shortage of New Vehicles Dog those Retailers
  20. Another Collapsed SPAC, Lottery.com, Discloses WTF Horror List and Says it Will Liquidate Unless Miracle Happens
  21. Boom & Bust Cycles: Construction Starts of Single-Family Houses v. Multifamily Buildings
  22. Compass Prepares for 25% Downturn in Housing Market, Plans Serious Cost Cutting, Pukes All Over the Place
  23. “Housing Recession”: NAHB. Homebuilders Cut Prices as Traffic of Prospective New-House Buyers Plunges, Cancellations Spike
  24. New Vehicle Inventory Dips, Near Record Low. Fuel-Efficient Cars Vanish. But Supply of Full-size Pickups & SUVs Rises, Discounting Sets in to Move the Iron
  25. Mopping up Mess from SPAC Mania: After Imploding, Shift Technologies (-92%) and CarLotz (-95%) Merge into One Zombie to Burn Remaining Cash Together
  26. The WOLF STREET Mugs Have Finally Arrived: If You’re on the “Mug List,” Please Read This
  27. House Prices in San Francisco & Bay Area Experience Steep Declines from April Peak Craziness, Down Year-over-Year
  28. Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: The Big Boys Leave, Waiting for Reset
  29. Services Inflation Worst since 1982, Food Inflation Worst since 1979, Housing CPI Heats Up. But Energy Prices Plunge, Some Durable Goods Drop: Inflation Whack A Mole
  30. QT Kicks Off at the ECB: Assets Fell by €91 Billion from Peak
  31. “Furthermore,” This Could be the End for Investors, Says Avaya, the Lucent Spinoff. Shares & Bonds Collapse Five Years after it Emerged from Bankruptcy
  32. SoftBank Lost $39 Billion in 6 Months, Wiping Out the Bubble Gains of the Vision Funds Since 2017: Easy Come, Easy Go
  33. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop – The Big Boys Leave, Waiting for Reset
  34. Are Federal Student Loans Even “Loans?” From Forbearance to Forgiveness to Taxpayer Expense. Fairer: Allow Bankruptcy
  35. The “Under-Demanded” Office Market
  36. Recession Mongers Shocked & Horrified by this Surge in Employment
  37. Fed’s QT: Total Assets Drop by $91 Billion from Peak (QE created money, QT Destroys Money)
  38. Trip Back to Reality Starts: Mortgages, HELOCs, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q2
  39. People Trying to Dodge Legal Usury: Credit Card Balances, Delinquencies, Third-Party Collections, and Bankruptcies in Q2
  40. Markets Are “Fighting the Fed”
  41. Nope, Auto-Loan Delinquencies and Repos Are Not “Exploding”: They Rose from Record Lows and Are Still Historically Low
  42. Layoffs, Discharges, Quits, Job Openings, and Hires: Still Massive Churn & Job Hopping, but Losing Some Steam
  43. SPAC Zombie Mergers: Nikola, Whose Shares Collapsed 92%, Buys Battery-Pack Maker Romeo whose Shares Collapsed 98%
  44. Australia’s Housing Downturn Accelerates: In Sydney, Sharpest Price Drops “in Almost 40 Years”

July 2022

  1. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Markets Are “Fighting the Fed”
  2. Meta Plunged from 5th Most Valuable Stock to 11th, behind Visa. In 10 Months, $647 Billion Vanish
  3. American Consumers Are Tough: Inflation Eats Their Income, But No Problem, They Still Outspend Inflation
  4. Would be a Hoot If Regulators Cracked Down on Companies BEFORE They Freeze Customer Deposits & Cryptos and File for Bankruptcy
  5. GDP Sunk by Plunge in Private Investment, Drop in Government Spending. Consumer Spending Rose Despite Raging Inflation
  6. Powell Puts 75-Basis-Point Hike on Table for Sept, Fed “Determined” to Get Inflation Down, Come Heck or High Water: Most Hawkish FOMC Press Conference I Ever Watched
  7. Big Tech & Startups Getting Ready for Reality: Shedding People, Offices, and Warehouses
  8. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July Update: Whittling Down the Crazy Price Spikes
  9. Prices of New Houses Plunge, Sales Crater to Lockdown Level, Inventories Pile Up to Highest since 2008
  10. Walmart Raises Sales Outlook, Lowers Earnings Outlook, as Inflation Bites: Shares -10% Afterhours. Target, Amazon Sag
  11. Vacant New Condo Tower in San Francisco: Tentacles of China’s Collapsing Property Developers Reach Deep into US Cities
  12. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Big Tech & Startups Getting Ready for Reality
  13. The Startup and Venture-Capital Barometer Plunges: Silicon Valley Bank Today v. Dotcom Bust
  14. US Natural Gas Prices Re-Spike, after the Big Plunge
  15. ECB Exits Negative Interest Rates, Hikes by 50 Bpts, Double its Promise, Bigger Hikes on Tap, Shows Off New Glue Gun to Prevent Sovereign Debt Crisis During Rate Hikes & QT
  16. It Starts: Reverse Stock Splits for Collapsed SPACs & IPO Stocks. Bankruptcy for Others
  17. Housing Bubble Woes: Sales of Homes Below $500K Plunge, Total Sales Drop to Lowest since Lockdown, Supply Jumps
  18. San Francisco Bay Area, Southern California Home Sales Crater, Prices Begin to Drop. California Pending Sales Collapse 40%
  19. Leverage v. Stock Market “Events”: Margin Debt Plunged in June
  20. Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Traffic of Prospective Buyers of New Houses Plunges, Homebuilders Cut Prices, Sentiment Dives
  21. Front Loading: Canada’s Mortgage Rates Hit Housing Market amid Monster Rate Hikes
  22. What Freight Volume and Freight Rates Say About the Shift of Consumer Spending from Goods Back to Services
  23. New Vehicle Inventory Stuck Near Record Low, Shortages Shift to Fuel-Efficient Cars, Prices Hit Record. But Used Vehicle Price Spike Runs out of Fuel amid Plenty of Supply
  24. Americans Not in the Mood for a Recession: Splurging on Goods, Flocking to Restaurants
  25. Large-scale Gasoline Demand Destruction Hits Sky-High Prices in Peak Driving Season: Gasoline Consumption Drops to July 1999 Level
  26. US Dollar Exchange Rates and Inflation: What’s Next?
  27. “Things Are Not Normal Right Now”: Bank of Canada Hikes by Monster 100 Basis Points, Hits Mortgages. So Might the Fed after US CPI Fiasco
  28. It Gets Ugly: Inflation Shifts to Services. Food, Fuel Spike Too. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Swoons.
  29. Why Delivery Giants Walmart, Amazon, FedEx & UPS even Deal with Collapsing EV Startups: EV SPAC Canoo is the Latest
  30. Cash-Out Refis with Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates for Remodeling Projects? Professional Home Remodelers Face New Challenges
  31. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: US Dollar Exchange Rates and Inflation – What’s Next?
  32. Leverage & Interconnectedness Are Blowing Up Crypto & DeFi
  33. I Want to Add a Word about Ageism in this Bizarre Labor Market and How it Hits Labor Force & Unemployment Numbers
  34. Fed’s QT Kicks Off: Total Assets Drop by $74 Billion from Peak, New Era Begins
  35. New Vehicle Sales in Russia Collapsed by 82% in June
  36. Tech Layoffs & Hiring Freezes Only Made Tiny Dent in Red-Hot Labor Market in May
  37. Bank of Japan’s Assets Drop for 2nd Month in a Row
  38. New Vehicle Sales in June 2022 Plunged 25% from June 2019, Back to 1970s Levels, on Inventory Shortages
  39. Manufacturing Still Hung in there in May, New Orders Surged in Part Driven by Raging Inflation. June Less Promising
  40. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Leverage & Interconnectedness Are Blowing Up Crypto & DeFi
  41. Riding Out the Recession in Commercial Real Estate: Time to Hold?
  42. Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Pending Sales Plunge in June, Inventory Jumps, Price Reductions Spike amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates
  43. Eurozone Whacked by Runaway Inflation, “Fragmentation” Fears after Years of Negative Interest Rates and Reckless QE
  44. Every S&P 500 Sector Fell in First Half, Except Energy. But in June Even Energy Let Go. Bonds Got Crushed. I’m Not Even Going to Mention Cryptos & DeFi

June 2022

  1. Consumer Spending Shifting Back to Services from Stimulus-Binge on Goods. Inflation Eats into Incomes
  2. Another Pump-and-Dump Meme Stock Ends in Dumpster of Reality: Bed Bath & Beyond Goes Back to Heck
  3. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June Update: “Deceleration” and “Tipping Point” of the Raging Mania
  4. Can the Government Even Pay the Rising Interest Expense on its Gigantic Debt as the Fed Pushes up Rates? Yes. Here’s Why
  5. Goldman Sachs Cut its Hype-and-Hoopla Creature Coinbase to Sell after it Collapsed 87%, as Crypto “Trading Activity Dries Up”
  6. Average Transaction Price for New Vehicles Hits Record $45,844 in June, as Consumer Still Pay No-Matter-What, amid Inventory Shortages, Record Per-Unit Gross Profits at Dealers
  7. “Inflation Forecasts Aren’t Worth the Paper They’re Written on”: This Is about the Bank of Canada’s Reaction to Inflation, But it’s the Same in the US and Everywhere
  8. What’s Behind the Collapse of so Many Stocks since Feb 2021?
  9. Here’s Where the Inventory Shortages Are, and Where Retailers Are Overstocked, by Retailer Category
  10. Housing Bubble Woes: Supply Jumps, Sales Drop, Median Price Skewed Higher by Shift in Mix as Bottom Falls Out below $500k, amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates
  11. Stock Market Swoon Pulls Rug Out from under Luxury Home Sales
  12. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: What’s Behind the Collapse of so Many Stocks since Feb 2021?
  13. Commercial Real Estate’s Early Autumn: We Now See Price Cuts, Blown Deals, Widening Bid-Ask Spreads
  14. New Vehicle Inventory, Stuck Near Record Lows, Gets Worse as Buyers Shift from Trucks to Economical Cars, which Vanish
  15. WOLF STREET Mug Shortage Decision Time: Please Weigh in if You’re on the “Mug List,” and Even if You’re Not
  16. Morning After J-Pow, Second Time in a Row
  17. As Gasoline Prices Spike, Demand Destruction Spreads, with Long-Term Implications
  18. Fed Stops Dillydallying. So OK, Maybe No Softish Landing. Markets on their Own
  19. Retail Sales Report, May: In Foulest Mood Ever, Consumers Still Spent Hugely at Retailers, Fighting Inflation where they Can
  20. “Real Estate Tech” in Existential Crisis as Housing Sours, Stocks Plunge, New Money Out of Reach: Redfin & Compass Try to Survive by Cutting Staff. Opendoor, Zillow Sag
  21. Margin Debt Unwinds Further amid Massacre of High-Flying Stocks and Forced Selling
  22. That Was Fast: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Spikes to 6.18%, 10-Year Treasury Yield to 3.43%. Home Sellers Face New Reality
  23. First EV SPAC Announces its Stock Will Go to Zero and Die
  24. Treasury Bonds Plunge, Yields Spike amid Stock & Crypto Mess
  25. Monday is Going to Be Interesting for Stocks
  26. False Hopes of Peak CPI Inflation: Prices of Services, Housing, Food, Fuel Spike. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Goes WHOOSH.
  27. Dotcom Bust 2, New & Improved
  28. EV IPO Insta-Collapse: Phoenix Motor Plunges into Void on 1st Day, More on 2nd Day. Parent SPI Energy Already Imploded 99%
  29. Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop to Lockdown Lows, “Bad Time to Buy” Hits Record amid Sky-High Prices, Spiking Mortgage Rates
  30. What’s Really Going on with Revolving Consumer Credit?
  31. Wondering Why the Price of Natural Gas is Suddenly so Damn High? The Booming US LNG Export Industry
  32. Gasoline Spikes to Nearly $5 US Average, Diesel to $5.70. Crude Oil WTI Jumps to $119. Inflation Not in the Mood of Peaking Yet
  33. Container Ship Wait-Times at Shanghai Fall, Still High. Container Freight Rates Drop, Still 4x of 2019: “Stabilization of Supply Chain Pressures at Historically High Levels”
  34. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Dotcom Bust 2, New & Improved
  35. What I think Musk Did, Genius Manipulator he is, by Threatening to Decimate Tesla’s Salaried Staff & Management while Increasing Headcount of Factory Workers
  36. These Jobs Reports Are Not Good for Stocks
  37. Suddenly Here Comes the Inventory: Homes Listed for Sale Jump amid Price Reductions and Sagging Sales
  38. Tech Bust Takes Next Step: Layoffs & Hiring Freezes
  39. Crude Steel Production in 2021 Shifted from China to Other Countries amid Supply Chain Chaos: US Production Spiked 15%
  40. First Big Drops in Astronomical Job Openings in Key Sectors, But Spikes to Record in Manufacturing & Construction

May 2022

  1. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, May Update: Mania at the Eve of Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates
  2. EV SPACs Warn about Running Out of Cash: The Beginning of the End for the Craziest Stock Bubble Ever
  3. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Tech Bust Takes Next Step: Layoffs & Hiring Freezes
  4. Time to Put Down the Shovel? So Far this Year, We’ve Dropped Three Projects due to Breathtaking Construction Cost Estimates
  5. Powered by (Formerly) Huge Gains from Real Estate, Stocks, Cryptos, as “Real” Incomes Lag? “Real” Consumer Spending Rises, Spending on Services Jumps
  6. Demand Destruction Hits Gasoline (But Only a Little) as Prices Spike in Historic Leap Just for Summer Driving Season
  7. If Buffett Still Owns Snowflake Tonight, His Gain of $1.9 Billion at the High is Now a Loss of $37 Million
  8. US Natural Gas Futures Spiked to Highest since 2008, Tripled in a Year: Why We Kissed that Dirt-Cheap Natural Gas Goodbye
  9. Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Unsold Inventory of New Houses Spikes by Most Ever, to Highest since 2008, with 9 Months’ Supply, Sales Collapse at Prices below $400k
  10. Snap Walks Back Already Lowered Guidance from Month Ago, Shares -30% Afterhours, -81% from High, Below IPO Price
  11. Average Age of Cars & Trucks in Operation Rises to Record, as New Vehicle Sales & Miles Driven Plunged
  12. Economical Cars, Hybrids, Small SUVs Suddenly Hot, Inventories Depleted. But Supply of Trucks & Full-Size SUVs Rises
  13. That Drop in Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Already Fizzled. Prices Rise Again. Dealer Listing Prices Hit Record $28,365
  14. Inflation Comes to Japan, amid Plunging Yen, Inflation Subsidies. Bank of Japan Blows it Off as “Transitory,” Throws Yen under Bus
  15. Who Bought the Incredibly Spiking US Government Debt, Now $30.4 Trillion in Treasury Securities?
  16. As Supply Rises & Mortgage Rates Spike, US Home Sales Fall to Lowest since June 2020, Plunge in California’s Coastal Metros
  17. Bad Breath of Inflation Sinks Target, Walmart, Other Retailers on Surging Costs of Products, Labor, and Transportation
  18. Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Mortgage Applications Plunge amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates, Croaking Stocks, Ridiculous Home Prices
  19. Americans Are in a Sour Mood, But it Didn’t Dampen their Spending: Splurging at Retailers, Especially Some Retailers
  20. Gasoline Spikes to Record $4.49, Just in Time for Summer Driving Season. Crude Oil Jumps. Not going to Help CPI in May
  21. My List of 23 Major US Office Markets, by Vacancy Rates Ranging from Abysmal to Just Terrible
  22. That Q1 GDP Drop Was a Freak Event that’ll Get Unwound in Q2
  23. Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop, Used Cars Already Popped, and Inflation Goes Global
  24. Massive Stock Market Leverage Unwinds amid Brutal Bloodletting
  25. Huge Percentage Gains — “Robinhood Soars 25%,” “Coinbase Soars 35%.” But You Can Barely See it on the Stairway to Heck
  26. Signs of a Downshift in the Freight Cycle, Trucking, and Demand
  27. Coinbase Shares Go Thunkadunk, -88% from High, amid Crypto Chaos, Plunging Revenues, Huge Loss: New Paradigm Where Gambling Tokens Blow Up the Casinos?
  28. Inflation in Services, Housing, Food, New Vehicles Goes WHOOSH as Dollar’s Purchasing Power Goes to Heck
  29. Consumers Can Handle Fed Tightening: Their Debts, Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Collections, and Bankruptcies
  30. Gasoline & Diesel Prices Spike to New WTF Records, But Don’t Blame Crude Oil
  31. Massacre Just Doesn’t Let Up: Another IPO Stock Kathoomphed 43% Afterhours: -90% from High
  32. Palantir, like Hundreds of Startups Designed to Lose Money and Bamboozle Investors, Runs out of Bamboozle: -84% from High
  33. Did the Fed Wait Too Long, Is the Stock Market Correction Over, Where’s the Fed Put, What’s the Psychological Effect on the Housing Market, and Will there Be Food Shortages?
  34. Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates Hit 5.64%, 10-Year Treasury Yield 3.12%, Long-Term Treasury Bond Fund Gets Massacred
  35. State of the American Debt Slaves: Borrowing More to Buy Less due to Raging Inflation
  36. Complexities of a Messed-Up Labor Market: Why a Crackdown on Inflation Might Bring People Back into the Labor Force
  37. Massacre of the Online Retail Stocks Amazon, eBay, Wayfair, Etsy, Shopify, Chewy, The Honest Co., as Folks Shift Spending from Goods Back to Services
  38. Powell Confident in “Softish Landing” for the Economy, But We May Keep Inflation. Markets Can Figure Out their Own Landing
  39. How Uber Lost $5.5 billion on 4 SPAC & IPO Stocks: Grab, Didi, Aurora, Zomato. How it Got There, How They Imploded
  40. It Just Doesn’t Let Up: Lyft Plunges 26% Afterhours, Down 74% from the Hype-and-Hoopla Trade out the IPO Gate
  41. A Recession Might Just Eat Some of the 11.5 Million Job Openings, Labor Shortages, Other Shortages, and Not Create Much Unemployment
  42. Diesel Spikes to WTF Record $5.51, Gasoline Jumps to $4.18
  43. US Manufacturers: Inflation Is “Out of Control,” Has Not Peaked, but “Intensified” amid Strong Demand, Shortages, and Lengthening Lead Times
  44. As IPOs Kathoomph, Exit Doors Close with Big Implications for the Broader Startup Scene

April 2022

  1. WHOOSH, Go Stocks, Make Mess. Amazon Leads. Biggest Stocks Fall Apart. Crappy April. Terrible First 4 Months. ARKK now -70%
  2. Consumer Spending Shifts from Goods to Services, Inflation Crushes Incomes, But “Real” Spending Hits Record
  3. Afterhours Massacre as Amazon Plunges, Apple, Intel, Tesla, even Meta Dive
  4. GDP Sunk by Trade Deficit Shitshow (Result of Globalization), Drop in Government Spending. Consumers Held up Despite Raging Inflation
  5. Thank You for Your Generous Support of WOLF STREET!! And if You Were Out Last Sunday, a Reminder: Please Donate
  6. Mortgage Volume Gets Crushed by Spiking Interest Rates: What it Means for Future Home Sales and Consumer Spending
  7. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, April Update: Raging Mania on the Eve of the Spike in Mortgage Rates
  8. Sales of New Houses Sag, Inventory Piles Up to Highest since 2008, as Mortgage Rates Spike. Homebuilder Costs Explode amid Shortages of All Kinds
  9. Deep-Junk-Rated Carvana Gets $4.5 Billion from New Investors, after Shares Collapsed by 79%, Hoping the World Hasn’t Run out of Greater Fools Yet
  10. Stock Markets in China & Honk Kong Dive, Yuan Slides, Crude Oil Drops on Confidence Crisis in China
  11. Dear Readers, Please Donate to Support WOLF STREET: Spring Reminder
  12. Now Alphabet Breaks, Microsoft too, Meta Already in Free-Fall: One by one, the Giant Stocks that Held Up the Market Let Go
  13. Tightening Comes Even to Ridiculous ECB Sooner, Faster as Seven EU Countries Hit by 10%-16% Inflation, Four by over 9%
  14. Peak Balance Sheet: Fed’s Assets Dip to Level of 5 Weeks Ago. End of QE, End of an Era
  15. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, April Update, as Yields Spike & Bank of Canada Hikes
  16. I Now Have to Add Netflix to my “Imploded Stocks”
  17. As Mortgage Rates Begin to Bite, Home Sales Fall to Lowest since June 2020, Supply Rises for Second Month
  18. Treasury Bond Massacre, Mortgage Rates Hit 5.35%, Highest since 2009, and it’s Only April
  19. A “Housing Shortage” amid a Building Boom that Outruns Household Growth?
  20. The 2021 Creatures of Goldman Sachs: its IPOs, SPACs, Direct Listings Are Imploding after Bonuses Spiked to a Record
  21. Margin Debt Drops Further amid Imploded Highfliers & Broad Stock Market Sell-Off: Not a Good Sign for Stocks
  22. Has Gasoline Price Shock Triggered Demand Destruction Yet? And Where Will Gasoline Prices Go from Here?
  23. After Blowing $328 Billion on Share Buybacks since 2017, JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi, Goldman Sachs Stocks Drop
  24. Retail Sales v. Raging Inflation, Stimulus Miracle March, and the Red-Hot Shift to Services
  25. Front-Running the Fed: Bank of Canada Hikes 50 Basis Points to 1.0%, Starts Official QT. Unofficial QT Already Shrank Assets by 15%
  26. Inflation Nightmare Keeps Getting Worse: Producer Prices Break Out. Inflationary Mindset Rules
  27. CarMax Reported, Shares Plunged Further. Shares of Online Used-Car Startups Vroom, Carvana, and Shift Already Collapsed
  28. WHOOSH, Dollar’s Purchasing Power Goes to Heck as Services Inflation Takes Off, Food Spikes, Energy Explodes, But Used Cars Finally Stall
  29. Amazon Issues Another “Callable” 40-Year Bond: Buyers Beware. Have a Look at the Prior Deals
  30. As Treasury Yields Spiked, Junk Bonds Did the Opposite: Still Maniacally Chasing Yield in Riskiest La-La Land
  31. What’s the Real Inflation Rate, Will the Housing Market Ever Slow Down, and How Long Will the Dollar Remain the Dominant Reserve Currency?
  32. Used Vehicle Prices Finally Drop but Won’t Plunge All the Way Back to Earth in this Crazy Environment. Here’s Why
  33. After Robinhood Shares Collapsed 87% from Peak and 70% from IPO, Goldman Sachs, IPO Lead Underwriter, Cuts Stock to “Sell”
  34. Homebuyer “Pessimism” Hits Bleak Record on Sky-High Prices, Spiking Mortgage Rates. Great Time to Sell, Though. Just Do It
  35. After GM, Ford, FCA Abandoned Cars, Toyota, Now #1 in the US, Rubs In their Monumental Blunder Publicly
  36. Bank of Japan’s Mind Game: Massive Bond Buys to Cap 10-Year Yield? Didn’t Happen. Bond Holdings Actually Fell. But it Worked
  37. Mortgage Refinance Applications Are Collapsing. What’s the Impact on the Economy & Markets?
  38. Mortgage Rates Breach 5%, Two-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike after Fed Dove Brainard Explains How Inflation is Much Worse for Lower Income Households than CPI Shows
  39. New Vehicle Sales Plunge as Chip Shortages, Production Cuts, Low Inventories Drag On. Back Where They’d Been in 1979
  40. After Having Blown $31 Billion on Share Buybacks to Prop Up its Shares, Starbucks Ends Them, to Invest in “Our People and Our Stores.” The New Old CEO Gets It. Shares Tank
  41. My “Wealth Disparity Monitor” of the Fed’s Money-Printer Era: Holy Moly. April Update of the Greatest Economic Injustice in Recent History
  42. Update on US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency and the Impact of USD Exchange Rates & Inflation
  43. How the Massive Gains in Average Hourly Wages Look Ludicrous Compared to the Reality of Spiking Prices

March 2022

  1. After Huge Spike in Prior Month, “Real” Spending by Americans Dips to Second Highest Ever. But Income Walloped by Inflation
  2. Bond Massacre, Inflation Prick Biggest Bond Bubble in History
  3. Inflation Blows Out in Germany, Spain. Started a Year Ago on Money Printing, NIRP, Supply Chain Chaos. War Threw Fuel on Already Raging Fire
  4. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March Update: Just Before the Great Spike in Mortgage Rates
  5. US Natural Gas Production and LNG Exports amid Urgent Demand for LNG from Europe
  6. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Bond Massacre, Inflation Prick Biggest Bond Bubble in History
  7. The Treasury Bond Massacre and the Spike to 5% Mortgage Rates: This is All Going Very Fast
  8. Another Miracle-IPO Stock Collapsed by 82% since the IPO. Wall Street Hype & Hoopla Machine Screeches to a Halt
  9. Mortgage Rates Are Rising Much Faster than Treasury Yields. What’s the Deal?
  10. Retail Vacancy on Chicago’s Magnificent Mile More Than Doubles from Pre-Pandemic Levels
  11. Now It’s BBQ-Grill IPO Stocks that Barbecue Retail Investors
  12. Inventory of New Houses Piles Up to Highest since 2008. Sales & Prices Drop. Stocks of Homebuilders Swoon
  13. Another Office Tower Goes Bust: Blackstone Walks from Manhattan Tower it Bought for $605 Million. CMBS Holders to Eat Remaining Losses
  14. Ultimate No-Growth Industry: Electricity Generation in 2021 Rose to, Well, 2007 Levels, Eagerly Awaits Demand from EVs
  15. Mayhem in the Treasury Market as Powell Adds 50-Basis-Point Rate Hikes (Plural) to Menu, QT “As Soon As” May
  16. Next Shoe Drops on Office Markets: State & Local Governments Dump Office Space amid Working-from-Home/Hybrid Model
  17. Mortgage Rates Spike, Home Sales Drop for 7th Month, and Suddenly Here Come the New Listings
  18. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March Update, amid Jumping Yields, Bank of Canada’s Rate Hike and QT
  19. How the Vehicle Production Nightmare Upended Everything and Why Automakers & Dealers Don’t Want the Old Ways Back
  20. Gazillion Miles Behind the Curve, the Fed Gets Hawkish: More Rate Hikes, “Faster and Much Sooner” Quantitative Tightening
  21. Americans Make Huge Efforts to Keep up with Raging Prices
  22. Rents for Single-Family Houses and Apartments Blow Out across the US: This Crazy-Hot Rent Inflation is a National Fiasco
  23. Producer Price Inflation Gets Entrenched at 10%, Worst Level in the Data
  24. Diesel Spikes to $5.25, Gasoline to $4.32, in Historic Leaps. But Wait a Minute… Futures of Crude Oil & Gasoline Plunge
  25. But Whose Money Evaporated when JP Morgan, BlackRock, Pimco, Calpers, Others Report Huge Losses on Russian Assets?
  26. Massive Volatility in the Markets, Inflation out the Wazoo, Effects of Higher Interest Rates on Stocks & Real Estate, and Will High Oil Prices Cause a Recession?
  27. Why This is the Most Reckless Fed Ever, and What I Think the Fed Should Do to Reverse and Mitigate the Effects of its Policy Errors
  28. DocuSign Shows How Gigantic the Blind Raging Mania Was and How it Suddenly Went to Heck
  29. Alibaba Plunges Below First-Day Closing Price in 2014. Golden Dragon China ETF Plunges Below its 2007 Price
  30. WHOOSH, Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunges in February as Inflation Spreads Across Services, Fed Still Pours Fuel on It
  31. Crazy Volatility Rocks Markets, Crude Oil WTI Flash-Crashes, Treasury Yields Jump, European Stocks Spike, US Stocks Bounce
  32. Labor Shortages Shift to Higher-Paying Industries, “Quits” Decline for Second Month but Still in the Astronomical Zone
  33. How Much Russian Crude Oil & Petroleum Product Does the US Import? Where Does it Go? How Much Impact Will the Russian Oil Ban Have?
  34. Nickel Futures Spike Ridiculously, Trading Halted, in Short Squeeze on Chinese Tycoon Facing Billions in Losses
  35. Now the Giant Tech Stocks and Big Four Banks Got Crushed, Airline Stocks Collapsed
  36. Now Nickel Goes Bananas, Spikes 73% in One Day, on Russia Sanctions, Shipping Chaos, Massive Short Squeeze
  37. Crude Oil WTI Futures Go Bananas, Briefly Spike to $130: And this Is What’s Happening at my Gas Station
  38. Stocks in Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain Plunge Below Year 2000 Levels: Buy-and-Hold Horror Shows
  39. Brick-and-Mortar Pharmacies in the Cross Hairs
  40. It’s the Airline Stocks Again: Ugly Day, Ugly Week, Ugly Long Term
  41. Even Soaring Wages Got Crushed by Inflation in Hot Labor Market: Fed Gets More Rate-Hike Ammo (as if it Needed More)
  42. Shares of SoftBank-Backed Grab, Biggest SPAC Ever, Collapse. Dating App and IPO Miracle Bumble Crashes
  43. Growth Hindered by “Supply Chain Disruptions, Capacity Constraints, Inflation, Logistical Challenges, Labor Shortages”
  44. Here Goes Another Highflyer: Buffett Darling Snowflake Crashes
  45. Bank of Canada Front-Runs the Fed, Hikes Interest Rates, Citing Hot Inflation & Even More Inflationary Pressures
  46. This Stock Market Is Coming Unglued Stock by Stock
  47. Crude Oil WTI Spikes: The Storm Today after the Calm Yesterday

February 2022

  1. Russia in Financial Crisis (Again), Ruble Collapses (Again), Central Bank Does Mother of All Rate Hikes (Again), US Stocks Shrug (Again)
  2. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: This Stock Market Is Coming Unglued Stock by Stock
  3. Collapse of the Real-Estate “Tech” IPO & SPAC Stocks: House Flippers Opendoor & Redfin Come Unglued, after Zillow
  4. Inflation Ate their Lunch, But Americans Made Heroic Efforts to Spend
  5. Even the Fed’s Lowball Inflation Measure Goes WOOSH: Fodder for 50-Basis-Point Rate Hike in March
  6. In Brutal Volatility, Gold & Oil Sag after Spike, 10-Year Yield Jumps after Plunge, Nasdaq Spikes after Dive, and the Fed Can Focus on Tightening
  7. Inventory of New Houses Highest since 2008 amid Stalled Projects & Worst Spike in Construction Costs Ever Recorded
  8. Is 4% the “Magic Number” for Mortgage Rates to Prick the Housing Market (and Stocks)?
  9. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Feb. Update: Raging Mania in Phoenix to Cooling Condos in San Francisco
  10. Buyers’ Strike Sets in: Used-Vehicle Supply Balloons, First Dip in Crazy Prices. But New-Vehicle Shortages Persist
  11. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada as Bank of Canada Begins QT, Yields Spike
  12. EV Sales in California Spiked in 2021, Share Hit Nearly 10%. Legacy Automakers, Years Behind, Finally Put Heat on Tesla
  13. Margin Debt Plunged as Stocks Tumbled and High-Fliers Got Crushed. But Leverage Still Gigantic, Long Way to Go
  14. Who Bought the $6.5 Trillion in Treasuries Piled on the Incredibly Spiking US Debt in 22 Months? Who Holds the $30 Trillion?
  15. What are Vacant Office Towers Worth? Foreclosure Sales Show How Values of 1980s Office Towers in Houston Have Collapsed, Dishing out Huge Losses for CMBS
  16. Americans Spent Money Like Drunken Sailors, But Did They Outspend the Raging Inflation in Durable & Nondurable Goods? Um, No
  17. When Will the Brutal Spike in Rents Drive Up CPI Inflation? How Much Will it Add to CPI?
  18. Even in Services, the Wholesale Price-Spike Is Now Relentlessly Red-Hot
  19. Now on the Fed’s Table: Sell Bonds Outright to Push Up Long-Term Yields, Steepen the Yield Curve, and Get Rid of MBS
  20. What I See Ahead for the Chip Shortage & Used Car Prices. Bond Market Reacts to Inflation. The Inflection Point for Real Estate
  21. The Collapse of the EV SPACs: Retail Investors Got Fleeced Swiftly and Spectacularly
  22. On-Time Rent Payments Sag amid Massive Spike in Rents
  23. Mortgage Rates Hit 4.02%. Two-Year Yield Spikes by Most since 2009. Ten-Year Yield Goes over 2%. All Heck Breaks Loose
  24. WHOOSH Goes the Dollar’s Purchasing Power in January as Inflation Now Infests Services
  25. It Only Took $11 Trillion in Free Money plus Forbearance & Eviction Bans to Perform this Miracle on Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Third-Party Collections, and Bankruptcies
  26. US Trade Deficit Exploded in 2021: The Price of 30 Years of Rampant Globalization
  27. Used Vehicle Prices Finally Hit Resistance, at Ridiculous Levels
  28. Americans Borrowed More to Buy Much Less: What Happened with Auto Loans Is Truly Amazing
  29. “Bad Time to Buy a Home” Hits Record Worst (Fannie Mae), as Home Sales Drop. Younger People Particularly Frustrated
  30. Can the US Government Afford Higher Interest Rates? You Bet. $67 Trillion “Fixed Income” Assets Will Generate Higher Incomes & Tax Revenues, Boost Secondary Effects
  31. Rough Day in the Bond Market: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Nears 4%. Where’s the Magic Number?
  32. Today’s Jobs Report Solves Some Headscratcher Mysteries
  33. Global Tightening amid Raging Inflation: February Update
  34. Incredibly Spiking US National Debt Hits Monstrous $30 Trillion
  35. “The System Is Broken”: Boots-on-the-Ground View by a US Manufacturer on the Supply Chain Chaos
  36. Layoffs, Quits, Hires, Job Openings: The Phenomenon of Labor Shortages and the Power-Shift from Employers to Workers

January 2022

  1. Dear Mr. Fed Chair Powell Sir, Rents Are Blowing Out and People are Hurting
  2. Shares of Online Used-Car Dealers Vroom & Carvana Collapsed as Market Turned its Back on Money-Losing “Disruptors”
  3. WHOOSH Goes the Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure. And Eats Up All Income Gains Plus Some
  4. Year of Distortions, Shortages, Massive Inflation, Worst Trade Deficits Ever, and Hyper-Stimulated Growth Ends with a Bang
  5. Yields Spike, Stocks Dump, Futures Fall, Asia Sags, after Powell Explains How the Fed Will Crack Down on Inflation
  6. Construction Costs Spike 17.5%, Worst since at least 1965. Inventories of New Houses Pile Up, Highest since 2008. Median Price Dives as Mix Shifts
  7. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, January Update: Starting to Look Like a Mixed Bag
  8. Stocks Better Bounce Soon or Else I’ll Have to Revise the WOLF STREET Dictum, “Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line”
  9. Despite All the Hype, Movie Theater Ticket Sales in 2021 Down 68% from 19 Years Ago. AMC Shares Collapse from WTF Spike
  10. When a Wild Bull Stumbles into a Hibernating Bear
  11. The Mayhem Below the Surface of the Stock Market Seeps to the Surface: Now it’s the Giants that Topple
  12. New & Used Vehicle Inventories Rise, But for the Wrong Reasons
  13. Big Drop in Home Sales, Surging Mortgage Rates, Tight Supply: The New Dynamics Shaping Up
  14. Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Mad Scramble to Lock in Rising Mortgage Rates as Bank of Canada Is Set to Tighten
  15. Russell 2000 Drops Below Year Ago Level. Collapse of IPOs, SPACs, Housing “Tech” Stocks, ARKK, etc. Progresses
  16. The New Version of CPI for New Vehicles Will Blow Your Doors Off: Spikes Even More. WHOOSH!
  17. Empty Shelf at a Grocery Store Near You? Tight Inventories, Labor Shortages, Supply Chain Snags, Strong Sales, Soaring Costs
  18. A Factor in the Bizarre “Great Resignation” & “Labor Shortage” Phenomenon: The Huge Surge of Americans Starting Businesses
  19. The Fed’s Huge Income Statement for 2021 Is Out: Where its Revenues Came from and Where They Went
  20. Oh My, the American Consumer amid the Distortions and Price Spikes of Our Time
  21. Time to Revisit that Crazy Lumber Price Spike that Died and Came Back to Life
  22. Shipping Expenses in the US Go Through the Roof
  23. Purchasing Power of the Dollar Goes WHOOSH!
  24. Most Reckless Fed Ever: “Real” Federal Funds Rate Now the Most Negative Ever
  25. After the Shortage, a Glut? Semiconductor Sales Hit Record for 7th Month. Hundreds of Billions in New Investments Planned
  26. Wage Price Spiral Takes Off, Companies Point at it: Albertsons Shares -8%, JP Morgan’s Dimon Sees “Huge Pressure” on Labor Market
  27. I Was Offered Fake 5-Star Reviews in Quantity of 10s on Google, Facebook, Tripadvisor, Yelp: Turns Out, They’re Amazingly Cheap
  28. Buyers’ Strike Finally? Dynamics of Crazy Used-Vehicle Prices Weakened, Retail Sales Fell, Supply Ballooned to 23% Above Normal
  29. Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Spike: Markets Begin to Grapple with Quantitative Tightening
  30. Hard to Imagine the Labor Market Will Go Back to Pre-Pandemic Dynamics. Too Much Has Changed
  31. New Vehicle Sales in 2021 at 1978 Level: 25 Years of Stagnation Interrupted by Plunges. But Prices Explode to WTF Level
  32. Markets Suddenly Hear Hawkish Fed: Stocks Sag, ARKK Plunges, Yields Jump, Cryptos (the New Hedge Against Inflation) Fail to Hedge, Plunge in Sync
  33. End of Easy Money: Monstrous Money-Printer Bank of Japan Stops Printing Money, Cuts Government Securities Below July 2020 Level
  34. Workers See Their New Power, Quit in Record Numbers to Get Better Jobs at Companies Struggling to Fill 10.6 Million Openings
  35. Status of the Office Glut in Houston, San Francisco, Manhattan, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington DC, Seattle
  36. What I See for 2022: Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate, Stocks & Other Assets as Central Banks Face Raging Inflation
  37. Interview: Inflation, the Housing Market, Chip Shortages, and a Messed-Up New Vehicle Market

2021 503

December 2021

  1. Fed Drains $1.9 Trillion in Liquidity from Market via Overnight Reverse Repos
  2. US Dollar’s Status as Dominant “Global Reserve Currency” at 25-Year Low. And USD Exchange Rates?
  3. Stimulus for the Rest of the World: Imports Spike, Trade Deficit in Goods Worsens Relentlessly
  4. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Dec. Update: But Prices Stalled in San Francisco, Boston, Washington
  5. My “Wealth Effect Monitor” & “Wealth Disparity Monitor” for the Fed’s Money-Printer Economy: December Update
  6. The Problem With Ponzis…
  7. Inventories of New Houses for Sale Highest since 2008, Worst Spike in Construction Costs in at Least 50 Years: What the Heck Is Going On?
  8. Glorious Effects of Money-Printing Bail Out Manhattan Luxury Housing Market in 2021, after it Fell on Hard Times
  9. Oops, Americans’ Big Pay Increases Got Run Over by Even Bigger Price Increases
  10. Even Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure Spikes Relentlessly: Parallel Isn’t 1982, but 1974, When Powell was in College
  11. End of Easy Money: Global Tightening in Full Swing, While the Fed Promises to Wake Up in Time Next Year
  12. Hot Air Comes Out of Condo Prices, But Not House Prices: Existing Home Sales Update
  13. Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown Manhattan Style, Year 6: Have Retail-Shop Rents Collapsed Enough Yet?
  14. Trying to Make Sense of Economic Madness: Wolf Richter on Construction Disruption
  15. Enough of this “Bond-Markets-Don’t-Buy-Hawkish-Fed’s-View” Nonsense: It’s the Fed’s Reckless Interest-Rate Repression
  16. Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, November Update, after Bank of Canada Ended QE and Put Rate Hikes in Sight
  17. Stocks Don’t Need More Alarm Bells, They’re Already Clanging and Jangling All Over the Place. But Here we Are: Leverage
  18. Inventory & Supply of New & Used Vehicles in Dollars & Units: What a Mess
  19. Powell: Everything’s Moving Much Faster, incl. End of QE, Balance Sheet Reduction, Rate Hikes
  20. Inflation Magic: Retail Sales +19.5% Year-over-Year, But Flat with Blowout Oct, as Department Stores Sagged, Auto Dealers Had No Inventory, and Cannabis Stores?
  21. What Needs to Happen to Get this Inflation under Control? And How Would Markets React?
  22. US Wholesale Price-Spike Worst in the Data, Even Services. But Further up the Producer Price Pipeline, Inflation Rages at 28%
  23. Vehicles in Operation and Registrations in 2021 by Automaker and Segment. Where’s Tesla?
  24. Wholesale Price Inflation in Germany Totally Blows Out, Highest in the Data Going Back to 1962
  25. Share Buybacks Surge to Record ahead of Potential 1% Tax: Companies Buy as Insiders Dump like there’s No Tomorrow
  26. WOOSH, Shock-and-Awe Loss of Dollar Purchasing Power Hits Americans. Worst Inflation in 40 Years. Getting it Under Control Will Be a Bitch
  27. Central Banks in Latin America’s Largest Economies Grapple with Raging Inflation: Brazil with Shock & Awe, Mexico Eyeing the Fed
  28. Labor Shortages Worsen, Companies Poach Workers from Each Other amid Massive Churn
  29. Biggest Mess I’ve Ever Seen: Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Spike to Ridiculousness. Just Wait till they Hit CPI Again
  30. Social Security COLA Calculations May Get Changed to CPI-E as Part of the Reform Bill. What Does it Mean for Retirees?
  31. Mayhem Beneath the Surface of the Stock Market
  32. Will Inflation Be Allowed to Run Wild? What a Crackdown on Inflation Will Do to Stocks, Bonds & Housing at these Prices
  33. People Balk at Regular Old Grind, Strike Out on the Own
  34. DocuSign, Worth $46 billion at 4 p.m., Plunges 30% Afterhours as “the Environment Shifted More Quickly than We Anticipated”
  35. Crushed Auto Sales, No Problem: Nov. was Most Profitable Month Ever for New Vehicle Sales as Americans Paid Whatever
  36. When Will Consumers Balk at Surging Prices?
  37. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, November Update: Another Holy-Cow Moment

November 2021

  1. Microsoft CEO Nadella Dumped 50% of his MSFT Stock, Following in Elon Musk’s Footsteps
  2. Junk Bonds, Leveraged Loans, Buyouts by PE Firms, All Blow Past Records in Massive Chase for Yield amid Fed’s Easy Money
  3. What’s Behind the Pile-Up of New Houses for Sale, Highest since 2008, as Construction Costs Spike Most in 42 Years, Projects Stall
  4. Red Friday: A Little Dip and Already the Crybabies on Wall Street are Clamoring for the Fed to Soothe their Pain
  5. Each Worker’s Slice of After-Inflation-Income Pie Is Shrinking. But No Problem, They Spend Heroically
  6. Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure Spikes to Worst-Hottest 31-Year High. Powell Groans and Mutters
  7. Best Buy Shares Plunge on Margin Pressures, “Organized Retail Crime”: A Look at Organized Retail Crime in the US and How Ecommerce Turned it into a Big Business
  8. Powell & Brainard Suddenly Make Inflation #1 Priority in their Thank-You Statements
  9. Home Sales Down 5.8% from Year Ago, amid Tight Inventory, “Increasing Affordability Challenges,” and Rising Mortgage Rates
  10. The WOLF STREET F-150 XLT and Camry LE Price Index, Model Year 2022 Update: This is the Craziest Situation I’ve Ever Seen
  11. After Driving Corporate Bond & Junk-Bond Rally to Lowest Yields Ever, Fed Ends Bailout SPV with $513 Million Profit, Sends 90% to US Treasury
  12. CVS to Close 900 Stores, Convert Others from Retail to Services, as Ecommerce Competitors Gobble up Pharmacy Revenues
  13. Thank You for Your Donations!! WOLF STREET Mug Shortage Update (I’m Out). And Reminder, if You Missed it: Please Donate
  14. Stock Market Leverage Spikes, Margin Debt Up 42% YoY. Fed Warns about High Leverage Ratio of “Younger Retail Investors”
  15. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada “Pause” after Bank of Canada Ends QE, Starts Unwinding its Balance Sheet
  16. Since 2008, Monetary Policy Has Cost American Savers about $4 Trillion
  17. Massive Price Increases & Overstimulated Demand Fuel Historic Surge in Retail Sales
  18. How Can an 11-Year Old Company Lose $844 Million on $661 Million in Revenues? WeWork Shows How, Having Lost $13.3 Billion on $10.6 Billion in Revenues in Less Than 4 Years
  19. Why WOLF STREET Won’t Hide Behind Paywall and Ad-Blocker Blockers: Dear Readers, Please Donate
  20. Inflation Becomes a Political Bitch for Democrats as People’s Mood Sours amid Biggest Fed-Fueled Boom for the Wealthy
  21. Car & Truck Insanity, Hamster Wheel of Work & Inflation, Do Price Controls Work? And Wading into Commercial Real Estate
  22. The Power of Labor: Record Churn & Quits among Workers as Employers Desperate to Fill Huge Number of Job Openings
  23. Status of Social Security and the Trust Fund, Fiscal 2021: Beware of Vicious Dog
  24. Dollar Purchasing Power Plunges. Inflation +6.2%. For Urban Wage Earners +6.9%, Highest in 40 years, Most Monstrously Overstimulated Economy Ever.
  25. State of the American Debt Slaves: Foreclosure Bans, Forbearance, Delinquencies & Soaring Prices of Everything
  26. Further up the Producer Price Pipeline, Inflation Rages at over 20%, Heading for Consumers
  27. Americans Blow Off Fed Propaganda Inflation is “Temporary”
  28. Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Spiked by the Most Ever. Retail Prices to Follow
  29. What’s Happening with the Massive Delinquencies of FHA High Risk & Subprime Mortgages Now that Foreclosure Bans Ended?
  30. Jobs Data Shows Something Big Changed in this Monstrously Overstimulated Economy
  31. Average New-Vehicle Price Spikes 19% in 10 Months, to $44,000. Unit Sales Tick up, But Still Down 34% from March
  32. The Fed Lost Control of the Inflation Narrative
  33. Monstrous Money Printer Bank of Japan Stopped Printing Money, Started Unloading Government Securities
  34. Zillow Comes Unglued, Lost $1.4 Billion on Flipping Houses since 2019, Bails Out, Lays Off 25% of Staff, Stock Plunges Further
  35. The Chilling Things US Manufacturers Said about the Everything Shortage, Demand, Prices, and Supply Chain Chaos
  36. House Flipper Zillow Seeks to Dump 7,000 Houses to Big Investors after Reports it Overpaid: Buy High, Sell Low, Take “One-Time Noncash Charge?”
  37. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: The Fed Lost Control of the Inflation Narrative

October 2021

  1. The Mess of China’s Over-Leveraged Property Developers Spills into California
  2. Employers Forced to Raise Wages by Most in at Least 20 Years: Whole Power Balance Has Changed
  3. Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure Hits Another 30-Year High as Reckless Money-Printing Continues
  4. Fed’s Assets from Crisis to Crisis to Raging Inflation: Balance Sheet Update
  5. Marred by Inflation, Inventory Shortages, and Record Trade Deficit, GDP Growth in Q3 Reverts to Decade Normal
  6. Suddenly Hawkish Bank of Canada Ends QE, Moves Rate Hikes Forward. 1-Year and 2-Year Yields Spike
  7. Rents Spiked 10% to 25% in Half the Cities in October: How it’ll Push Up CPI Next Year, Ridiculing Fed’s “Transitory” Inflation
  8. House Construction Costs Spike Most since 1979 amid Materials Shortages. Unfinished Houses Pile Up, Total Inventory Highest since 2008. Prices Spike as Lower End Dies
  9. Tesla’s Market Cap (Gigantic) v. Next 10 Automakers v. Tesla’s Global Market Share (Minuscule)
  10. Tesla Rental Deal is Propaganda Coup for Hertz’s “Selling Shareholders” & for Tesla. But Rental Fleets Are Low-Quality Sales Automakers Don’t Tout
  11. Why Walgreens is in Trouble in San Francisco and is Closing Some Stores: It’s Not Shoplifting, that’s an Artful Distraction from the Real Reasons
  12. How China’s Model of Dictated Economic Growth Blew Up
  13. While the Fed Still Fuels the Fire, the Bank of Russia Throws Shock-and-Awe Rate Hikes at Raging “Persistent” Inflation, But US Inflation Not Far Below Russia’s
  14. Afterhours Massacre: Intel Plunges 9% for Other Reasons, Snap Collapses 25%, Takes Down Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, Google
  15. Fear of Rising Mortgage Rates Meets Fizzling Pandemic-Frenzy? Prices of Existing Homes Fall for 3rd Month. But, But, But…
  16. “Wage Pressures,” “Robust Wage Growth,” “Wage Inflation,” even “Wage War” Plastered All Over Fed’s Beige Book
  17. The “Everything Shortage”: Why Is Everything so Expensive & out of Stock?
  18. 10-Year Yield Jumped to 1.66% as Fed’s Waller Got Hawkish, Shredded Inflation Indexes that Strip out Food, Energy & Outliers, Put Faster Taper & Sooner Rate Hikes on Table
  19. What P&G Said about Soaring Costs, Supply Chain Woes, Inflation, and Trying to Keep Shelves Stocked
  20. Hit by Shortages, Vehicle & Parts Production Plunged to Lowest since Lockdown. Oil & Gas Has New Script
  21. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: China’s Model of Dictated Economic Growth Blew Up
  22. Not Getting Better: Relentless Retail Inventory Squeeze amid Shortages & Supply Chain Chaos
  23. Banks Disclose Tidbits of Hidden Stock Market Leverage, as Known Stock Market Leverage Surges
  24. Free-Money-Blow-Off Spike in Retail Sales Got Refueled by Spiking Prices
  25. The Amazing Explosion of New Businesses Continues as Americans Strike Out on their Own
  26. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunges Further, as Housing CPI Begins to Climb, Food & Energy Soar, New Vehicle Prices Spike
  27. Social Security COLA for 2022 Biggest since 1982, But Still Won’t Cover Actual Cost of Living Increases for Many Retirees
  28. What the Record Spike in “Quits” Says about the Job Market, Inflation, and How Labor Gained Pricing Power
  29. Inflation Expectations Come Unanchored: People Expect Red-Hot Price Increases to Eat Wage Gains plus their Lunch & Dinner
  30. Apartment Conversions from Old Office Buildings, Hotels, Factories: The Numbers
  31. Will Risk Parity Blow Up…???
  32. End of Easy Money: Bank of England Talks Tightening amid “Altered Consumer Behavior,” Visions of Persistent Inflation
  33. My Thoughts on the Biggest Mess in Decades: New & Used Autos, Chip Shortages, Inflation, and the Nasty Possibility of Stagflation
  34. One of the Biggest Money Printers, the BoJ, Stopped Printing Money
  35. People Not Looking for Work, Labor Force Drops. But Households Report Strong Gains in Jobs & Self-Employment
  36. Used Vehicle Prices Spike to New Crazy Record in a Market Gone Nuts
  37. The Ugly Math: GM, Ford, other Legacy Automakers Throw Hundreds of Billions at EVs, Only Auto Segment that’s Growing. Tesla Made Them Do It
  38. Just Keeps Getting Worse: Services Trade Surplus, the American Dream-Not-Come-True, Worst in 10 Years. Imports Worst Ever. Trade Deficit Worst Ever
  39. New Vehicle Sales Plunge as Prices Soar amid Supply Chain Chaos, Chip Shortages, and Depleted Inventories
  40. Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp Go Down as DNS Records Disappear under Mysterious Circumstances
  41. Office Slump Gets Even Uglier in Q3: Houston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington DC, Seattle, Manhattan
  42. My “Wealth Effect Monitor” for the Money-Printer Economy: Holy Moly, October Update
  43. Incomes Got Chewed Up by Inflation. Americans Spent Heroically on Goods, But Not on Services. Eviction Moratoriums & Forbearance Implicated
  44. Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure Hits 30-Year High
  45. Treasury General Account Plunges by $100 Billion in One Week. How Close to Zero Will it Get?

September 2021

  1. US Dollar Status as Dominant “Global Reserve Currency” amid Reckless QE & Government Deficits
  2. “Transitory” is the New Spandex: Powell Admits it, Still Denies its Cause. Why this Inflation Won’t Go Away on its Own
  3. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Holy Cow, September Update
  4. When Fed Doves Get Hawkish… Balance Sheet Runoff Should Start at End of Taper, First Half 2022: Bullard
  5. Red-Hot Rents to Fire Up CPI Inflation Just When “Temporary” Is Supposed to Unwind It
  6. Suppliers in China for Apple, Tesla, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, NXP, Infineon, ASE Forced to Halt Production amid Energy Crackdown
  7. Top 10 Share-Buyback Queens – Big Tech except Intel, Big Banks except Wells Fargo, Buffett – Incinerate Most Cash Ever in Q2. The Rest Lags
  8. Unfinished Houses for Sale Pile Up, Total Inventory Highest since 2008, amid Material Shortages & Worst Spike in Construction Costs since 1979
  9. 10-Year Yield Jumps to 1.43% as Bond Market Reacts to what the Fed Said Yesterday about Tapering, Rate Hikes, and Inflation
  10. As Overnight Reverse Repos Spike to Record $1.28 Trillion, Fed Doubles Per-Counterparty Limit, Keeps Adding Counterparties
  11. Home Sales Fall from Year Ago, Prices Down for 2nd Month, Price Reductions Jump: This “Deceleration” Despite Massively Negative Real Mortgage Rates
  12. China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China
  13. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China
  14. World Runs Out of Weirdest Stuff: The WOLF STREET Beer Mug Shortage
  15. A Mess: Retail Inventory Shortages in Charts, Just in Time for Holiday Selling Season
  16. What Comes After Mind-Blowing Free-Money Blow-Off Spike in Retail Sales? A Spike Doesn’t Spike Forever
  17. What a Collapse of China’s Evergrande Would Mean
  18. Business Travel, Conventions, Office Occupancy Stuck in Collapse: Been so Long, People Forgot What Old Normal Was
  19. Social Security COLA for 2022 to be Near 5.8%, Could Match 2009, Biggest since 1982
  20. Inflation Whac-A-Mole: New Vehicle Prices Spike as Used Vehicle Prices Dip, while Housing Inflation, which Exploded in Reality, Barely Budged in the CPI
  21. Proposed EV Tax Credits = Braindead Economic Policy +Last Thing the Booming EV Industry & EV-Hungry Consumers Need
  22. Americans Expect their Earnings to Get Whacked by Red-Hot Inflation, Blow Off Fed’s Sermons about “Temporary”
  23. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: What a Collapse of China’s Evergrande Would Mean
  24. Up the Price Pipeline, Inflation Rages at 20%
  25. The Process of Ending Massive Money Printing Has Started
  26. The Everything Shortage & Price Hikes Plastered All Over Fed’s “Beige Book”
  27. Most Distorted Labor Market Ever: Charts by Sector
  28. New Vehicle Sales Plunged Further in August amid Inventory Shortages & Production Cuts: Chip Shortage Wreaks Havoc
  29. Bank of Japan Ends its Massive QE that Started when Abenomics Became Economic Religion of Japan
  30. “Debt Ceiling Farce 2021”: Treasury General Account Plunges. Let’s See How Close to Zero Congress Will Let it Get this Time
  31. Biggest Strides in Health? Not due to Doctors and Certainly Not Counseling by Doctors
  32. In States that Ended the Extra $300/Week Unemployment Benefits, People Returned to Work at Over Twice the Rate than in the Other States: Data from the Labor Department
  33. The Monstrous Flow of Free Money and the Shortages
  34. Enter GreedCare, where the White Coat is Supplanted by the Grey Pinstripe of Corporate Conglomerates

August 2021

  1. Semiconductor Shortages amid Record Semiconductor Sales? It’s a Mess Out There
  2. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Free Money and the Shortages
  3. Port Congestion, Spiking Container Rates, Backlogs, Chaos: The Peak Shipping Season from Hell is Here
  4. Flush with Free Money, Americans Spent Heroic Amounts, but Inflation Ate it Up
  5. Powell Uses 1970s Inflation Spiral to Show How “Temporary” Becomes Persistent, as Fed’s Lowball Inflation Measure “Core PCE” Jumps Most since 1991
  6. Supreme Court Sacks CDC Eviction Ban
  7. Korea & Iceland Kick off Rate-Hike Cycle in Developed Economies after Shock-and-Awe Rate Hikes in Russia, Brazil
  8. The Most Monstrously Overstimulated Economy & Markets Ever
  9. Mallmageddon: How Far the Value of Four Live Malls, Not Zombie Malls, Collapsed this Summer
  10. End of the Era of Voracious Corporate Appetite for Office Space
  11. Home Prices Dip for First Time off Crazy Spike, Price Reductions Surge, Sellers Emerge, House Sales Drop Year-over-Year, Inventories & Supply Keep Rising
  12. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: The Most Monstrously Overstimulated Economy & Markets Ever
  13. No Brick & Mortar Meltdown for Legal Marijuana Retailers
  14. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada Dogged by the Bank of Canada’s End of QE
  15. The Extra $300/Week Unemployment Benefits Encouraged Many to Not Work: Details about the “Labor Shortage” Pile Up
  16. Shortages in Charts: New & Used Vehicle Inventories Collapsed, Supply at Clothing Stores Gets Tight, Food Stores Near Normal
  17. What’s Behind this Messed-Up Bond Market?
  18. Surging Prices, Fading Stimulus, and Shift to Services: Americans Dent Historic Spike in Retail Sales
  19. Who Bought the $5 Trillion Piled on the Monstrous US National Debt in 15 Months?
  20. Margin Debt Drops for First Time since March 2020, After Crazy Spike
  21. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: What’s Behind this Messed-Up Bond Market?
  22. Antitrust Bombshells in the Fine Print: Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy
  23. Driving in America Changed: Rural is Up, Urban Down, Mass Transit Out
  24. Debt Ceiling Kicks in, Treasury General Account Plunges: Let’s See How Close to Zero it Gets Before Congress Ends this Farce
  25. Container Port Chaos in China, Soaring Freight Rates, Spiking US Producer Prices, as Fiscal & Monetary Stimulus Still Rage
  26. Social Security COLA for 2022 Could Be Biggest since 2009 or even 1982, But Won’t Cover Cost Increases for Many Retirees
  27. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunged at Constant Speed
  28. This Reddit Lament Sums up Wonderfully What Lots of Home Buyers Will Grapple with as Housing Market “Normalizes” and Work from Home Fizzles
  29. The State of the Small Business: Hiring Problems, Inventory Shortages, and Big Price Increases
  30. AMC Sold Three Times More Shares than Movie Tickets in Q2, Revenues Down 70% from Q2 2019, as Business Model Collapsed
  31. Amid Clamoring of “Labor Shortages” as 13 Million People Claim Unemployment Benefits, Job Openings Spike Sky-High. Sector by Sector
  32. $1.1 Trillion Flood of Liquidity from Drawdown of Treasury General Account Peters Out
  33. Used-Vehicle Madness Unwinds Teeny-Weenie Bit, 2nd Month
  34. Weird Phenomenon of “Labor Shortages” as Millions of People Still Aren’t Working: Employers Hired 2.5 Million in 3 Months
  35. Senator Manchin Hammers on Powell to Back Off Money Printing, as Biggest “Inflation Momentum in 30 Years” Might Derail Democrats’ Spending Priorities
  36. Yes, More People Went Back to Work in States that Ended the $300/Week in Federal Unemployment Benefits
  37. New Vehicle Sales Slammed by Semiconductor Shortage, Record Low Inventories, Beginnings of Buyers’ Strike
  38. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Gets Zapped. It’s Permanent
  39. State of the American Debt Slaves: Forbearance & Free-Money Phenomenon amid Soaring Prices of Homes & Autos
  40. After Upending the Global Oil Industry & Losing their Shirts, Shale Oil Drillers & Battered Investors Go for Price
  41. Fracking Suddenly a True Believer in “Discipline?” US Natural Gas Net Exports Hit Record, Prices Jump as Production Stalls
  42. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Dollar’s Purchasing Power Gets Zapped. It’s Permanent
  43. My Thoughts on Selling a Successful Family Business: McNellis

July 2021

  1. People Made Heroic Efforts to Spend. Inflation Ate Their Lunch
  2. Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure “Core PCE” Spikes Further. Highest 3-Month Rate since 1982
  3. Steamy Rent Inflation in Single-Family Suburban Houses: Invitation Homes Jacks Up Rents Big Time on its 80,000 Houses
  4. Socked by 6.4% Inflation, Record Trade Deficit, Inventory Shortages, and Drop in Government Spending, “Real” GDP Jumps Disappointingly
  5. My Thoughts on the Fed’s Back-to-the-Future “Standing Repo Facilities” Announced Today
  6. The Zoo Has Gone Nuts: PayPal Will Give Me $25 if I Buy Cryptos
  7. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: July Update, Holy Moly
  8. No, Rents Are Not Suddenly Spiking in San Francisco: They Fell Again in July and Are Down 27% since June 2019
  9. US Home Purchases by Foreigners Plunged for 4th Year, to Decade Low. But They Bought More Expensive Homes than Americans
  10. Buyers’ Strike: Sales of New Houses Plunge 32% in 5 Months, Unsold Inventory Highest since 2008, Prices Drop, Construction Costs Spike by Most since 1980
  11. People Sure Are Driving a Lot, Gasoline Consumption Hits Record, But Flying & Mass Transit Lag Way Behind
  12. Bond Market Has Been Clueless about Inflation for Decades, Now More so Than Ever. The Meme the Drop in Yields = End of Inflation is a Fantasy
  13. While Fed Blows Off Inflation, Hawkish Bank of Russia Shocks & Awes with Rate Hikes, Sees “Persistent” & “Prolonged” Inflation
  14. After Slashing 33% of Workers in 6 Years, Railroads Complain about Labor Shortages, amid Uproar over Slow Shipments
  15. Home Sellers Are Coming Out of the Woodwork: New Listings, Unsold Inventories & Supply Rise
  16. Creditors Foreclose on Another Mall of Simon Property Group, Face Massive Loss
  17. “No Resistance” to Price Increases
  18. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Why the Bank of Canada is Cutting QE
  19. Normally Astute American Car Buyers Just Pay Whatever: AutoNation, Largest Auto Dealer in the US
  20. Plunge of Retail Inventories, Collapse of New & Used Vehicle Inventories: The Shortages Depicted in Charts
  21. Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Goods and Services
  22. Americans Pay More to Get Less: Retail Sales Outrun by Inflation
  23. Did People Use their Stimulus to Start a Business? The Spike in New Businesses, one of the Mindblowers of the Pandemic
  24. This “Temporary” Inflation Is Turning into an Inflation Spiral
  25. Bank of Canada Cuts Bond Purchases for 3rd Time, Bank of New Zealand Stops QE Cold-Turkey, Citing Housing Bubble in “Least Regrets Policy,” Following a Slew of other Central Banks
  26. And Now the WTF Spike in Transportation Costs
  27. While the Fed Fiddles, the Dollar Burns: Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunged at Fastest Pace since 1982
  28. Consumers Expect Red-Hot Inflation to Crush Their Earnings: Fed’s Survey
  29. The Chilling Thing Disney’s “Black Widow” Said about the Future of Movie Theater Chains
  30. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: This “Temporary” Inflation Is Turning into an Inflation Spiral
  31. Housing Market Splits: San Francisco House Prices do Holy-Moly Spike, Condo Prices Flat for 3 Years
  32. Container Freight Rates Spike to New Extremes, up 500% for Asia-US, Asia-EU since Early 2020. Worse Still Ahead
  33. With Stimmies Fading, Consumers Dip into Credit Cards for First Time since 2019, But Only a Little. Everyone’s Relieved
  34. Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices?
  35. Americans See the Raging Mania: “Bad Time to Buy a Home” & “Good Time to Sell a Home” Sentiments Spike to WTF Record
  36. Tapering, Doubts about “Transitory” Inflation, and “Financial Stability Risks” due to “Valuation Pressures in Housing Markets”: Some Folks at the Fed Getting a Little Nervous
  37. Buyers’ Strike? Mortgage Applications Drop 8% Below 2019, as Home Buyers Get Second Thoughts about “Raging Mania”
  38. Bank of Japan Stops QE, Reserve Bank of Australia Starts Tapering, Bank of Canada & Bank of England Already Tapering, Amid Shock-and-Awe Rate Hikes in Emerging Markets
  39. The Dollar’s Declining Status as Dominant “Global Reserve Currency” v. the Dollar’s Exchange Rate
  40. Today’s Unicorns Have Bigger Cumulative Losses than Amazon, Lost Money far Longer than Amazon, Still No Turnaround
  41. HSBC in Big Trouble in its Biggest Market, China
  42. Semiconductor Shortage Slams Auto Sales in June. Ford Swoons. Toyota, after Hoarding Chips, Blows Away GM for First Time Ever
  43. The Weird Phenomena of “Labor Shortages” While 7.1 Million Fewer People Are Working
  44. It Gets Ugly in US Office Markets, Working from Home Shows Up
  45. Consumers Pay Whatever it Takes, Vehicle Prices Go Nuts, Dealers Make Record Profits, Whole Mindset Changed. Is This Inflation Temporary?

June 2021

  1. Fed’s Reverse Repos Spike to $1 Trillion. Cash Drain Undoes 8 Months of QE
  2. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Holy Moly. June Update
  3. While Fed Is in Denial, Hawkish Bank of Russia Sees Inflation as “Not Transitory,” Warns of Possible Shock-and-Awe Rate Hike
  4. Anatomy of San Francisco Now: Fewer People, Jobs, Tourists, & Businesses, But More Spending by the Hangers-on (But that Was Inflation)
  5. Two UK Commercial Real Estate Funds Shut Permanently, Investors Trapped, as Sector-Wide Exodus Intensifies
  6. Pay More, Get Less: Consumer Income & Spending Chewed Up by Red-Hot Inflation
  7. Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Gauge “Core PCE” Spikes Most Since 1983
  8. Is this the Reversal of Exodus-Triggered Plunges & Spikes of Rents? Mmmm-maybe
  9. Central Banks Did it, Won’t Admit it. Top OECD Housing Bubbles: #1 New Zealand, #2 Canada, #7 USA
  10. The Breathtaking Collapse of Retail Rents in Manhattan, Year 7
  11. Buyers’ Strike? Sales of “New Houses” Also Slump amid Surging Supply & Spiking Prices
  12. No, Blackstone Didn’t “Buy 17,000 Houses” out from under Desperate Homebuyers. And BlackRock Didn’t “Buy a Whole Neighborhood.” But Built-to-Rent is a Huge Change
  13. Buyers’ Strike? Sales of “Existing Homes” Sag for 4th Month amid Rising Inventories & Crazy Spiking Prices
  14. Most Important Measure of Fed’s Economy: My “Per-Household Wealth Effect Monitor” for Q1, Based on Fed Data
  15. Where Shortages Show up: The WTF Plunge in Retail Inventories
  16. What Powell Also Said at the Press Conference: “Hawkish” Nuances from the Fed
  17. Is This Inflation Temporary? My Thoughts on the Biggest Mess I’ve Seen in Decades. And other Nuggets of Dispute
  18. When Fed Doves Turn Hawkish, it Gets Real: Fed Dove Bullard Gets Antsy about Inflation, Pulls Rate Hike into 2022, Sees Quicker Tapering with MBS amid “Threatening Housing Bubble”
  19. Holy Moly, Fed’s Reverse Repos Spike to $756 Billion, Undoing 6 Months of QE. In Opposite Direction, Fed’s QE Pushes Assets Past $8 Trillion
  20. EV SPAC Lordstown Shows Why this Market Needs Short Sellers More than Ever; They’re the Only Sheriff Left in Crazy Town
  21. Fed “Had Discussion” on Tapering, Pulls Rate Hikes Closer, Raises Interest Rates on Reserves (IOER) & on Overnight Reverse Repos
  22. A Glimpse at Hidden Stock Market Leverage of “Securities-Based Lending,” as Known Stock Market Leverage Spikes to WTF High
  23. Despite Massive Price Increases, Retail Sales Drop: Buyers’ Strike & Fading Stimmies Dent the WTF Spike
  24. Average Age of Cars & Trucks on the Road Jumps to Record: The Circular Problem for Automakers
  25. Third Publicly Traded Mall REIT Files for Bankruptcy in Eight Months: Washington Prime Group, the Simon Property Spinoff
  26. “Tesla only sold ~10%” of its Bitcoin Holdings: Musk Speaks, Bitcoin Moves. But it Takes Two to Tango
  27. Subprime Auto-Loan Delinquencies, Which Had Exploded, Plunged after Stimmies. These Folks Are Now on Buyers’ Strike
  28. Surging Inflation No Problem, Junk Bond Yields Drop to Record Low, Dish out Negative “Real” Yields to Fed-Whacked Investors
  29. Cash Gone Nuts: Treasury General Account Drops to $674 Billion, as Fed’s Reverse Repo Cash-Drain Hits $534 Billion
  30. It Gets Ugly: Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunged at Fastest Pace since 1982. It’s “Permanent” not “Temporary,” Won’t Bounce Back
  31. EVs Hit 8% Share in California’s Declining New-Vehicle Market: Shaking Up Legacy Automakers
  32. Fed’s Reverse Repos Hit $503 Billion. Liquidity Drain Undoing over 4 Months of QE
  33. Will Americans, Who’ve Spurned Cheaper Cars for Decades, Buy a Lower-Priced Baby “Truck?” I Don’t Know Either
  34. Job Openings Spike in WTF Style amid “Labor Shortages” while 15 Million People Claim Unemployment Benefits
  35. The Countries with the Most Monstrous Business Debts: US in 22nd Place Despite Massive Spike During the Pandemic
  36. The WTF Spike of Used-Vehicle Prices Continues Unabated. So Which Part Is “Temporary?”
  37. Oh Lordy, Yellen Comes Out for Higher Interest Rates: “A Plus for Society’s Point of View and the Fed’s Point of View”
  38. AMC Insiders Dumped Huge Portions of their Shares after WTF Spike, AMC Sold Shares, and Wanda is Already Outa There
  39. The Weird Phenomenon of “Labor Shortages” as Millions of People Who Could Work Are Not Working
  40. Global Steel Production: China Blows the Socks off the Rest of the World, US Production Plunges
  41. Stock Market Officially a Bad Joke: AMC Warns Buyers of its New Shares: Don’t Buy “Unless You Are Prepared” to Lose “All or Substantial Portion of Your Investment”
  42. It Begins: The Fed Will Outright Sell its Corporate Bonds & ETFs
  43. Buyers’ Strike? Mortgage Applications Drop Deep into 2019 Range as People Looking for a Home to Live in Step Back from “Raging Mania”
  44. SoftBank-Funded Silicon Valley Unicorn Katerra, which was to “Transform” the Construction Industry, Collapses
  45. “Cash Has Been Trash for Years, But Soon it May Be the Only Haven for Investors”: Bill Gross is at it Again
  46. It is Hard to Resist the Dopamine of Collective Euphoria in the Housing Market

May 2021

  1. Modular Construction: “Not there yet”
  2. Inflation Bites Chunk out of Personal Income & Spending
  3. Bank of England Chief Economist: Avoid Inflation Surge “Like the Plague”
  4. Fed’s Favorite Lowball Inflation Gauge is Red-Hot, Not Seen in Decades, Even Without the “Base Effect”
  5. Fed Drains $485 Billion in Liquidity from Market via Reverse Repos, Undoing 4 Months of QE, Even as QE Continues, Total Assets Near $8 Trillion
  6. Car & Truck Sales Show: The Inflation Mindset Has Changed, Consumers Are Willing to Pay a Lot More, Generating not only Record Sales but also Record Gross Profits
  7. Wolf Richter in Conversation with Saxo Bank’s Market Call
  8. How my Friend’s Small Hostel in Barcelona Survived
  9. “Just Shut Up and Buy”: But Hype-Stocks & Cryptos Crashed
  10. The Most Splendid Housing-Inflation Bubbles in America with WTF Spikes in Seattle & Los Angeles
  11. China’s Capital Controls & Crackdown on Conglomerates, the US Shift to Working from Home, and San Francisco’s Historic Office Glut Leave Big Ulcer
  12. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: “Just Shut Up and Buy,” But Now Hype-Stocks & Cryptos Crashed
  13. Can Anything Knock Down the Stock Market? The Incredibly Shrinking Credit Card Debt; the New & Used Car Fiasco; and Can the Fed Crack Down on Inflation?
  14. Buyers’ Strike? Amid Crazy Spiking Prices, Home Sales Sag for 3rd Month, Pent-Up Sellers Get Ready, New Listings & Inventories Rise
  15. Fed Drains $351 Billion in Liquidity from Market via Reverse Repos, as Banking System Creaks under Mountain of Reserves
  16. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Even the Bank of Canada Gets Nervous and Tapers
  17. Airbnb Shows How San Francisco’s Office Shortage Is Suddenly a Historic Glut: Hogging Vacant Space for a Future that Never Came
  18. Known Stock Market Leverage Hits WTF High. Out the Other Side of its Mouth, the Fed Warns about Hidden Leverage that Blew up Archegos
  19. Who Bought the $4.7 Trillion of Treasury Securities Added Since March 2020 to the Incredibly Spiking US National Debt?
  20. Slowly But Not Surely: Airline Leisure Travelers Coming Back, But Not Business Travelers. International Still Crushed
  21. The Credit Card Hustle by the Banks & the Fed Hits Rough Spot
  22. Spiking Inflation, Rate Hikes, and Debt Defaults in Latin America
  23. Odd Man Out at the Fed: Kaplan Talks Tapering, Inflation, Risk Management, Excesses in Financial & Housing Markets, Supply-Demand Imbalances
  24. WTF Spike of Retail Sales Lives Another Month on Surging Prices & $1,400 Stimmies. Gonna Be Tough in May
  25. Real Estate “Tech” Stocks Compass, Redfin, Zillow Come Unglued. SoftBank Miracle Unicorn “Better” to Go Public via SPAC as SPACs Dive
  26. State of the American Debt Slaves: Fed “Confounded” as They Pay Down Credit Cards, Other High-Interest Debt, and HELOCs
  27. It’s Getting Serious: Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunges Most since 2007. But it’s a Lot Worse than it Appears
  28. The Most Hyped Corners of the Stock Market Come Unglued
  29. The Bizarre Phenomenon of a Screwed-Up Labor Market
  30. Consumers Expect Surging Inflation to Crush the Purchasing Power of their Labor: Fed’s Survey
  31. How the BoE & UK Government Stoke the Housing Fire
  32. OK, California Housing Market: First-Ever Population Decline Meets Biggest Home Construction Boom since 2008
  33. How California’s Cities Strangle the Permit Process
  34. What’s Behind the WTF Spike in Used-Vehicle Prices? My Gut Says, it Can’t Last. But if it Lasts, It’s Scary-Crazy Inflation
  35. Unemployment Crisis, “Labor Shortage,” or Out-of-Whack Labor Market – Which Is It?
  36. Fed’s QE amid “Everything Mania”: Total Assets $7.8 Trillion, More than Doubled in 18 Months since Repo Market Blowout
  37. Bank of England Now 2nd Central Bank to Taper, After Canada, but Denies Tapering is “Tapering,” also Following Canada
  38. Now Even Google Caves under Demand for Permanent Work from Home, Another Blow to Bay Area Office Market
  39. Lumber: Scary-Crazy Inflation Now Gets Passed On. But These WTF Price Spikes Cannot Last
  40. The Dynamics Behind the Ugly Amount of Empty Office Space
  41. Just Keeps Getting Worse: Services Trade Surplus, the American Dream Not-Come-True, Falls to 9-Year Low, Total Trade Deficit Explodes to Worst Ever
  42. Intel & TSMC on Chip Shortage: After Blowing $84 Billion on Share Buybacks since 2011 and Now Woefully Behind, Intel Clamors for $50 Billion in Subsidies for US Chip Industry
  43. Haunting Photos of San Francisco During Lockdown

April 2021

  1. Free-Money Stimmies Blow Out Consumer Income & Spending on Goods for a Glorious WTF Chart of the Year
  2. As Flammable-Cladding Crisis Crushes Prices at Low End of UK Housing Market, Bank of England Frets about Contagion, Banks
  3. It’s Not Over: Rents in San Francisco Down 30%, in Silicon Valley Down 19%, both at Multi-Year Lows. But Inland Rents Spike
  4. Inflation Jumped by 3.8% in Q1, “Real GDP” Rose 1.6%, Dragged Down by Record Trade Deficit and Drop in Inventories
  5. It’s a Perfect Time to Sell a Home (to FOMO-Driven Buyers)
  6. Semiconductor Shortage Bites: Ford Cuts Q2 Production by 50%
  7. Imports, Trade Deficit in Goods Explode to Worst Ever, Powered by Stimmies and Decades of Rampant Offshoring
  8. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: “House-Price Inflation” out the Wazoo, Ignored by CPI. April Update
  9. Forget 2% Inflation. With Margins Forcefully Squeezed, Big Companies Raise Prices, Point at Massive Inflation Overshoot
  10. Work-from-Anywhere San Franciscans Goaded by SF Chronicle to Take “$20,000” Offered by “Small Towns” and Move there to Escape High Housing Costs
  11. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: It’s a Perfect Time to Sell a Home (to FOMO-Driven Buyers)
  12. Producer Prices Surge. Germany, China, other Countries Are Now Exporting Inflation, Adding to US Inflation Pressures
  13. How Much Are Americans Driving and Flying Now, One Year After the WTF Collapse in Fuel Consumption?
  14. Cut Prices and They Will Come? New House Sales Jump After Massive Drop in Prices
  15. Silicon Valley: Supply in Need of Demand
  16. Buyers’ Strike? Everyone Knows the Housing Market Has Gone Nuts: amid Wild Distortions, Prices Spike but Sales Plunge
  17. What Companies & Office Workers Said About Work from Home: Landlords Are Out of Luck
  18. The Taper Next Door: Bank of Canada Cuts Bond Purchases by 25%. Total Assets Drop by 13%. Rate Hikes Moved Forward, Possibly July 2022
  19. The WTF Charts of the EV SPAC Hype Boom Are Imploding Spectacularly
  20. Riskiest Junk-Rated Companies Borrow at Lowest Cost Ever amid Torrid Yield Chasing. AMC Bonds Sell at a Premium
  21. Freight Expenses Spike the Most on Record
  22. I’m Just the Little Guy Between the Boots of Giants, but I’m Having a Blast. Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET
  23. The Whole Inflationary Mindset Has Changed: People Are Paying Sharply Higher Vehicle Prices Instead of Going on Buyers’ Strike
  24. Stock Market Leverage in La-La Land, Rises to Historic WTF High
  25. Applications for New Businesses Have a Double-WTF Moment
  26. Unwelcome Inflation Heats Up in Mexico, Brazil, and as Always in Argentina
  27. The Retail WTF Charts of the Year, Powered by $1,400-Stimmies and Massive Price Increases
  28. Fed’s Bond Purchases Won’t Save all Mall CMBS from Defaulting
  29. More Signs of Cooling Demand: Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop Below 2019 for First Time in Pandemic Housing Craziness amid Higher Interest Rates
  30. A Fraudster is Impersonating “Wolf Richter” via Email to Rip People Off: If You Get that Email, Do NOT Reply to it. It’s a Scam
  31. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Drops Sharply to Record Low, But It’s a Lot Worse than CPI Shows
  32. Mexico’s War on Obesity Sends Global Junk-Food & Sugary-Drink Giants Scrambling
  33. I Now Track the Most Important Measure of the Fed’s Economy: the “Wealth Effect” and How it Impacts Americans Individually
  34. What I See as Retail Landlord, One Year After (and we’re STILL Forgiving and Deferring Rent for Our Hardest-Hit Tenants)
  35. How the “Affordability Crisis” Migrated from High-Income Rental Markets, as Manhattan & San Francisco, to Lower Income Markets, as Detroit & Fresno
  36. Producer Prices Blow Out
  37. Get Ready for a Wild “Base Effect”: Highlighted Forcefully when it Suits Them, as with Inflation; Silenced Forcefully When it’s Awkward, as with Corporate Earnings
  38. Yellen Calls for Taxing Large Corporations on Puffed Up Earnings they Report to Shareholders, Which I Called for Years Ago
  39. The Power of Stimmies after Decades of Rampant Offshoring: Trade Deficit Hits Worst Ever, Duh
  40. Bank of Canada Now Owns 40% of Government of Canada Bonds. Fed a Saint in Comparison. Taper on the Table
  41. Office Slump Gets Ugly in Houston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Manhattan, Chicago, Washington DC
  42. Prices Surge Broadly Across the Massive Service Sector and Companies Are Able to Pass On these Higher Prices
  43. US National Debt Passes $28 Trillion, +$4.7 Trillion in 13 Months. General Treasury Account Down by $480 Billion in 2 Months, $620 Billion to Go
  44. Stocks, Real Estate, Inflation, and Latest Blowup: All this Super-Leveraged Craziness Going on Looks Like a Market Peak to me, Sez Wolf Richter
  45. QE During the “Everything Mania”: Fed’s Assets at $7.7 Trillion, up $3.5 Trillion in 13 months
  46. “Permanent Job Losers” No Better Off Than Last Summer. But Most of the 18 Million Job Losers on Temporary Layoffs Are Working Again
  47. The Explosive Surge of Mortgages for “Second Homes”: Housing Bubble Math
  48. US Dollar’s Status as Dominant “Global Reserve Currency” Drops to 25-Year Low

March 2021

  1. “390 Days with my Son-in-Law!” My Side of the Lockdown Story
  2. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: “House-Price Inflation” in all its Glory. March Update
  3. In Housing Market Gone Nuts, Condo Prices Sag in San Francisco Bay Area, Hover in 3-Year Range in New York, Rise at Half Speed in Los Angeles
  4. Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks
  5. Ponzis Go Boom!!!
  6. What’s Behind the Stunning Spike in Used Vehicle Auction Prices? That Consumers Aren’t on Buyers Strike Shows Something Big about Inflation Has Changed
  7. Waiting for the $1,400-Stimmie-Powered WTF Spike in March
  8. As “Rent Spreads” Shrink, Exodus Ends? Rents in San Francisco & Silicon Valley at Multiyear Lows, but Soar in Sacramento, Fresno, Lake Tahoe Area
  9. Blocked Suez Canal Adding to Container Shortages, Supply Chain Snarls, Component Shortages for Manufacturers
  10. FHA Mortgage Delinquencies Hit 17.5%. In 30 Metros, over 20%: On the Other Side of a Red-Hot Housing Market
  11. The Crisis of Venture Capital: America’s Broken Start-up System
  12. Bank of Canada Announces Balance Sheet Reduction, Suddenly Worried about “Moral Hazard”
  13. WeWork at it Again: Loses $3.2 Billion, Plans to Go Public via SPAC
  14. Everyone Knows the Housing Market Craziness Can’t Last, then the First Dip Turns into a Big Drop
  15. All Heck Breaks Loose amid Fears of Another Currency Crisis after Turkey’s Central Bank Governor Got Sacked Following Shock-and-Awe Rate Hike
  16. First Signs that Surging Mortgage Rates Are Dialing Down the Heat under the Housing Market
  17. What’s Going to Happen with All that Empty Office Space?
  18. Powell in WSJ Op-ed: “I Truly Believe that We [the Rich] Will Emerge from this Crisis Stronger and Better, as We [the Rich] Have Done so Often Before”
  19. Market Manias Galore, But Long-Term Interest Rates Smell a Rat
  20. Shock-and-Awe Rate Hikes Begin in the Emerging Markets amid Surging Inflation
  21. Plastics & Semiconductor Shortages, Container Port Backlogs, the Texas Freeze Wreak Havoc on US Auto Manufacturing
  22. Stock Market Leverage Spikes in Historic Manner: Another WTF Chart of a Zoo that Has Gone Nuts
  23. SPACs Are Lining Up as the Next WTF Chart of the Year
  24. Can Retail Sales Only Grow if Americans Get Permanent Stimulus Payments in this Era of Free Money? That’s the Question Now
  25. Momentous Change in US Natural Gas with Global Impact as Exports Soar to Huge Record Despite Collapse in the Spring
  26. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Market Manias Galore, But Long-Term Interest Rates Smell a Rat
  27. What’s Behind the Huge Spike in Reserves, a Liability on the Fed’s Balance Sheet?
  28. Long Way to “Normalcy”: When Will Americans Return to Flying for Vacation and Business?
  29. House Price Inflation in CPI is of Course Complete Baloney, but it Accounts for 1/4 of Total CPI
  30. Google, Ad Tech, and the Gutting of the News Publishers
  31. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Dwindles to Another Record Low. Fed is Getting its Wishes
  32. Signs Are Everywhere: Businesses Have Changed Permanently as a Result of the Pandemic
  33. Electricity Sales to End Users Dropped Below 2008 Level: What it Says about the Pandemic Economy, Households, Commercial & Industrial Activity, and Public Transportation
  34. 365 Days With My Mother-in-Law: Boots on the Ground View of Barcelona’s Economy
  35. Yellen Coddles Up to Powell on Rising Long-Term Yields as a Welcome Sign of Recovery. Wall Street Crybabies Not Amused
  36. Consumers Paid Down Credit Cards Again! By Most Ever. But Cash-Out Refis Spiked to Highest since 2005/6 Peaks. What Gives?
  37. The Jobs Recovery, Compared to the “Good Times” Trend
  38. SoftBank Fintech Unicorn Greensill on Verge of Collapse
  39. Was That the IPO Stocks Bubble that Just Popped?
  40. Movie Theater Business Isn’t Going Back to Normal: Disney CEO
  41. How Hard Did the Winter Storm Slam the Economies in Texas, Other Areas? This Index, Designed to Track the Pandemic Recovery, Shows How Hard
  42. Looking on the Bright Side of Brexit, 60 Days In

February 2021

  1. The Big “Buy & Hype” Bitcoin Casino
  2. Treasury Market Had a Cow, Mortgage Rates Jumped, Wall Street Crybabies Clamored for Help, But the Fed Smiled Satisfied Upon its Creation
  3. Just Don’t Expect “Pent-up Demand” from Consumers. Here’s Why
  4. Fed’s QE: Assets Hit $7.6 Trillion. Long-Term Treasury Yields Spike Nevertheless, Wall Street Crybabies Squeal for More QE
  5. More Shifts in the Year of the Plague: Driving Plunged even as Mass Transit Ridership Collapsed
  6. Global Green Energy Zombie Abengoa, Caught Cooking its Books in 2015 & Bailed Out Twice, Finally Runs Out of Bailouts, Files for Bankruptcy, 2nd Largest in Spanish History
  7. Why It’s Good for San Francisco that Rents Dropped 29% to Multiyear Low. But They Haven’t Dropped Nearly Enough Yet
  8. Exodus from Big Expensive Cities Running out of Steam? Maybe. But Rents in San Francisco & Los Angeles Hit New Multiyear Low
  9. Macy’s Brick & Mortar Sales -35%, Digital +21%. Walmart Online +69%, US Ecommerce +32%. Online Furniture, Grocery, Clothing Sales Explode as Brick & Mortar Melts Down
  10. The Growing Pains of Brexit, 50 Days In
  11. It Starts: The Cascading Financial Repercussions of the Texas Electricity Crisis
  12. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: The Big “Buy & Hype” Bitcoin Casino
  13. What Happens to the Markets If Long-Term Interest Rates Double from Here? Did Low Interest Rates Boost Auto Sales? Do These Covid Markets Make Any Sense?
  14. Getting Artificially Intelligent in Commercial Real Estate: Using Consumers’ Smartphone Data to Negotiate Deals
  15. Shipping Costs, Trucking Rates Soar Despite Demand Below Prior Years. Now Add Diesel Price Surge to the Mix
  16. What Dropbox’s $400 Million Real-Estate Loss Says about Office Rents in San Francisco’s Biggest Office Glut Ever
  17. Who’s to Blame for the Texas Power Crisis?
  18. Why the EV Battle Is Brutal for GM, Ford, Other Automakers: Tesla Cuts Prices Again, Barriers to Entry Vanish, EV Entrants Muck Up High-Profit Pickup Truck Oligopoly
  19. Here’s What’s Hiding Behind the Massive Seasonal Adjustments in January Retail Sales
  20. Who Bought the $4.5 Trillion Added in One Year to the Incredibly Spiking US National Debt, Now at $27.9 Trillion?
  21. In-Your-Face Inflation: AutoNation Brags About Huge Jump in Per-Vehicle Gross Profit on Soaring Prices Despite Declining New-Vehicle Unit Sales
  22. Electric Delivery Vans in Era of Red-Hot Ecommerce Confront Legacy Automakers with New Deep-Pocket Competition
  23. Visits to “Places of Commerce” Still in Collapse Mode. Have Some of these Massive Shifts Become Permanent?
  24. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 1.21%, More than Doubling Since Aug. But Mortgage Rates Near Record Low. And Junk Bond Yields Dropped to New Record Lows
  25. California New Car & Truck Sales Plunged 21.7% in 2020, Far Worse than US Total. Even Tesla Sales Fell. Nissan’s Collapsed. But EV Market Share Rose to 6.2%
  26. Owner of Westfield, Buckling under $32 Billion in Debt, Plans to Dump its US Malls After Huge Losses
  27. Demand for Gasoline, Jet Fuel, and Diesel: Checking on the Recovery
  28. Tesla, GM, Ford Together in Ludicrous-Mode WTF Charts
  29. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Drops to Record Low, Despite Aggressive “Hedonic Quality Adjustments”
  30. Salesforce, San Francisco’s Largest Employer, Switches to Hybrid “Work from Anywhere,” Won’t Need All that Space in Salesforce Tower. Uber, Old Navy, Yelp, Oracle, Dropbox… Dump Office Space
  31. When the Eviction Bans End, How Many MORE Renters Face Eviction than in Good Times? How Much Worse is it Now?
  32. One Year After the Collapse of the Airline Business Began: What’s the Status Now?
  33. US Trade Deficit in 2020 Worst since 2008, Goods Deficit Worst Ever Despite First Ever Petroleum Surplus. Services Surplus Drops Again
  34. The State of American Debt Slaves: Q4 2020. Consumer Borrowing in Weirdest Economy Ever
  35. Exposed by a Short Seller, Luckin Coffee, another Chinese Company that Defrauded US Investors, Filed for Bankruptcy in New York Today
  36. Three Months of No Jobs Growth, Labor Force Drops to July Level
  37. Largest US Mall Landlord Simon Property Group Sent Jingle Mail to Deutsche Bank Which Foreclosed on Mall, But Got No Bids
  38. Despite Terrible US Economy in 2020, Workers of Mexican Descent Sent Most Dollars Ever Back to Mexico
  39. The Stock Market Is Broken, Now for All to See
  40. Inflation Pressures Heat Up Even in Services
  41. “The Fed’s Monetary Punchbowl Is Fueling Rampant Home Price Appreciation”: AEI
  42. Big City “Exodus” & Distortions: Rents Plunge in Most Expensive Cities, Explode in Others. Boston Plunge Steepens, San Francisco Plunge Pauses
  43. Inflation Galore at Manufactures, amid Shifts in Demand, Supply-Chain Snags, Shortages, Lack of Shipping Capacity. And They’re Passing it On
  44. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: The Stock Market Is Broken, Now for All to See

January 2021

  1. Americans Cut Back as Income from Wages & Salaries Hit Record as 10 Million People Still out of Work: Weirdest Economy Ever
  2. Update on Fed’s QE: The Crybabies on Wall Street, which Clamored for More, Are Disappointed
  3. The Year of the Plague in Charts: Weirdest Economy Ever
  4. Biggest Office Glut since 2005 Hits Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate amid Worst Recession on Record
  5. As DOW, S&P 500 Sink into Red YTD, GameStop, AMC, 4 Other “Most Shorted Stocks” Jump 135% to 538%. Utter Mania. But Bloodletting in Late Trading
  6. AT&T’s Acquisition Binge Gone Awry: The Actual Cash in its $19 Billion “Non-Cash” Write-Off
  7. The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Dollar’s Purchasing Power Swoons, January Update
  8. California’s Ballooning Unemployment Fraud: 95% is under Federal PUA Program. PUA Fraud is a “National Problem”
  9. After Skyrocketing in Majestic Short Squeeze, GameStop Shares Collapse 54% in Hours: The Zoo Has Gone Nuts
  10. Historic Mania in SPACs, IPOs. Huge Fees for Wall Street Banks. Mega Paydays for Insiders. Disdain for Valuations. Blind Faith that “This Time It’s Different”
  11. Eurostar Near Collapse, Asks for Bailout, Becomes Hot Potato
  12. Inflation Is Spreading Broadly into the Economy. Amid Surging Costs, Companies Raise Prices, and Customers Pay them, Despite Weak Economy, 10 Million Missing Jobs
  13. Time to Worry About Stock Market Leverage Again: Another WTF Sign the Zoo Has Gone Nuts
  14. American Restaurants: the Catastrophe of the Second Wave, City by City
  15. Eviction Bans, Surging Apartment Vacancy Rates Trip up CMBS Backed by 43 Apartment Buildings
  16. Central Bank Machinations with No Exit: ECB Leaks New Thingy, It’s Doing Yield Spread Control
  17. To Put it Succinctly about Services: Everything Drops, incl. Jobs, but Prices & Wages Rise
  18. San Francisco Techsodus & Unwind of Office Hogging Sink Office Market. Sublease Explodes, Leasing Freezes up, Rents Drop
  19. When the Market Defies All Logic, it’s Time to Take a Deep Breath: My Observations as Real Estate Broker
  20. Massive Inflation in Shipping Costs. And the Reasons
  21. “Seasonal Adjustments” of Retail Sales Gone Awry in Weirdest Economy Ever? Americans Actually Cut Back”?
  22. Flammable-Cladding Crisis in Residential Towers: The UK’s Housing Nightmare with “Mortgage Prisoners”
  23. Blaming “Lower Interest Rates,” Northern Trust, the #3 Trust Bank, Quietly Laid Off 500 People Last Week. #2 BNY Mellon Quietly Followed This Week
  24. Canada’s Mortgage Lenders Have Set Aside a Record Amount for Bad Loans
  25. Citing Permanent Shift to Work from Home, Dropbox Cuts 11% of its Workforce
  26. Electricity Has Been in a Slump for 14 Years, But All Heck Has Broken Loose in How it’s Generated
  27. Stunning Brick & Mortar Meltdown, Manhattan Style: The Collapse of Retail Rents Before & Now During the Pandemic
  28. After 17 Years of Falling Ticket Sales, Movie Theaters Got Annihilated in 2020
  29. “Keeping a Business Alive that’s Generating No Revenues is an Uphill Struggle”: Friend and Hostel Owner in Barcelona. An Industry Collapses
  30. Update on the WTF Collapse of Gasoline & Jet Fuel Consumption: The Holiday Period
  31. Having Already Dropped for Years, US Auto Sales Plunged to 1970s Level in 2020
  32. Bond Market Smells a Rat: 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 1.04%, Highest since March. 30-Year 1.81%, Highest since February. Mortgage Rates Jumped
  33. In Crazy Banana-Republic Moment, Mob Storms U.S. Capitol, Senate & House. Lawmakers Evacuated. But No Problem, Stocks Are Up
  34. How Will This Unwind? Amid Stimulus, Forbearance, Eviction Bans, Consumer Bankruptcies Dropped to Lowest in Decades. Commercial Chapter 11 Bankruptcies Highest in Years
  35. The Amazon Empire Beefs Up its Logistics Juggernaut
  36. “Exodus” Havoc: Rents Plunge in San Francisco, New York, Boston, Seattle, Other High-Cost Cities, but Soar 50% in Newark in 18 Months, with Double-Digit Jumps in 20 Cities
  37. American Debt Slaves in Weirdest Economy Ever
  38. Tesla Finally Almost Hit 500,000 Deliveries, Two Years Behind its Promise, for a Global Market Share of… 0.7%
  39. Paper Dollars in Circulation Globally Spike amid Hot Demand. But a Mexican Bank, after Run-ins with the US, Can No Longer Unload its Hoard of Paper Dollars

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